The assessment of organ doses from plutonium for an epidemiological study of the Sellafield workforce

Extended analysis of solid cancer incidence among the Nuclear Industry Workers in the UK: 1955-2011

Radiation worker studies provide direct estimates of cancer risk after protracted low-dose exposures to external X-ray and gamma-ray irradiations. The National Registry for Radiation Workers (NRRW) started in 1976 and has become the largest epidemiological program of research on nuclear workers in the UK. Here, we report on the relationship between solid cancer incidence and external radiation at the low-dose levels in 172,452 NRRW cohort members of whom (90%) were men. This study is based on 5.25 million person-years of follow-up from 1955 through the end of 2011. In the range of accumulated low doses two-thirds of workers have doses of less than 10 mSv. This study is an updated analysis of solid cancer incidence data with an additional 10 years of follow-up over the previous analysis of the NRRW cohort (NRRW-3). A total of 18,310 cases of solid cancers based on a 10-year lag were registered and of these 43% of the solid cancer cases occurred during the latest 10 years. Poisson regression was used to investigate the relationship between solid cancers risk and protracted chronic low-dose radiation exposure. This study demonstrated for solid cancers a rapid decrease of risk at high external doses that appeared to be driven by the workers who were monitored for potential exposure to internal emitters and who had also received relatively high external doses. Among cohort members only exposed to external radiation, a strong association was found between external dose and solid cancers (ERR/Sv = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.11; 0.96, based on 13,199 cases). A similar pattern is also seen for lung cancer. Excluding lung cancer from the grouping of all solid cancers resulted in evidence of a linear association with external radiation dose (ERR/Sv = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.01; 0.49, based on 15,035 cases), so suggesting some degree of confounding by smoking. Statistically significantly increasing trends with dose were seen for cancers of the colorectal, bladder and pleura cancer. Some of these results should be treated with caution because of the limited corroborating evidence from other published studies. Information on internal doses as well as non-radiation factors such smoking would be helpful to make more definitive inferences.

Plutonium in Manhattan Project workers: Using autopsy data to evaluate organ content and dose estimates based on urine bioassay with implications for radiation epidemiology

PURPOSE

Radiation dose estimates in epidemiology typically rely on intake predictions based on urine bioassay measurements. The purpose of this article is to compare the conventional dosimetric estimates for radiation epidemiology with the estimates based on additional post-mortem tissue radiochemical analysis results.

METHODS

The comparison was performed on a unique group of 11 former Manhattan Project nuclear workers, who worked with plutonium in the 1940s, and voluntarily donated their bodies to the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries.

RESULTS

Post-mortem organ activities were predicted using different sets of urine data and compared to measured activities. Use of urinalysis data collected during the exposure periods overestimated the systemic (liver+skeleton) deposition of 239Pu by 155±134%, while the average bias from using post-exposure urinalyses was -4±50%. Committed effective doses estimated using early urine data differed from the best estimate by, on average, 196±193%; inclusion of follow-up urine measurements in analyses decreased the mean bias to 0.6±36.3%. Cumulative absorbed doses for the liver, red marrow, bone surface, and brain were calculated for the actual commitment period.

CONCLUSION

On average, post-exposure urine bioassay results were in good agreement with post-mortem tissue analyses and were more reliable than results of urine bioassays collected during the exposure.

Quantitative Bias Analysis of the Association between Occupational Radiation Exposure and Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in UK Nuclear Workers

The scientific question of whether protracted low-dose or low-dose-rate exposure to external radiation is causally related to the risk of circulatory disease continues to be an important issue for radiation protection. Previous analyses of a matched case-control dataset nested in a large cohort of UK nuclear fuel cycle workers indicated that there was little evidence that observed associations between external radiation dose and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality risk [OR = 1.35 (95% CI: 0.99-184) for 15-year-lagged exposure] could alternatively be explained by confounding from pre-employment tobacco smoking, BMI or blood pressure, or from socioeconomic status or occupational exposure to excessive noise or shiftwork. To improve causal inference about the observed external radiation dose and IHD mortality association, we estimated the potential magnitude and direction of non-random errors, incorporated sensitivity analyses and simulated bias effects under plausible scenarios. We conducted quantitative bias analyses of plausible scenarios based on 1,000 Monte Carlo samples to explore the impact of exposure measurement error, missing information on tobacco smoking, and unmeasured confounding, and assessed whether observed associations were reliant on the inclusion of specific matched pairs using bootstrapping with 10% of matched pairs randomly excluded in 1,000 samples. We further explored the plausibility that having been monitored for internal exposure, which was an important confounding factor in the case-control analysis for which models were adjusted, was indeed a confounding factor or whether it might have been the result of some form of selection bias. Consistent with the broader epidemiological evidence-base, these analyses provide further evidence that the dose-response association between cumulative external radiation exposure and IHD mortality is non-linear in that it has a linear shape plateauing at an excess risk of 43% (95% CI: 7-92%) on reaching 390 mSv. Analyses of plausible scenarios of patterns of missing data for tobacco smoking at start of employment indicated that this resulted in relatively little bias towards the null in the original analysis. An unmeasured confounder would have had to have been highly correlated (rp > 0.60) with cumulative external radiation dose to importantly bias observed associations. The confounding effect of "having been monitored for internal dose" was unlikely to have been a true confounder in a biological sense, but instead may have been some unknown factor related to differences over time and between sites in selection criteria for internal monitoring, possibly resulting in collider bias. Plausible patterns of exposure measurement error negatively biased associations regardless of the modeled scenario, but did not importantly change the shape of the observed dose-response associations. These analyses provide additional support for the hypothesis that the observed association between external radiation exposure and IHD mortality may be causal.

Mortality among workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1943-2017

BACKGROUND

During World War II (WWII), the Manhattan Engineering District established a secret laboratory in the mountains of northern New Mexico. The mission was to design, construct and test the first atomic weapon, nicknamed 'The Gadget' that was detonated at the TRINITY site in Alamogordo, NM. After WWII, nuclear weapons research continued, and the laboratory became the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The mortality experience of 26,328 workers first employed between 1943 and 1980 at LANL was determined through 2017. Included were 6157 contract workers employed by the ZIA Company. Organ dose estimates for each worker considered all sources of exposure, notably photons, neutrons, tritium, ²³⁸Pu and ²³⁹Pu. Vital status determination included searches within the National Death Index, Social Security Administration and New Mexico State Mortality Files. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) and Cox regression models were used in the analyses.

RESULTS

Most workers (55%) were hired before 1960, 38% had a college degree, 25% were female, 81% white, 13% Hispanic and 60% had died. Vital status was complete, with only 0.1% lost to follow-up. The mean dose to the lung for the 17,053 workers monitored for radiation was 28.6 weighted-mGy (maximum 16.8 weighted-Gy) assuming a Dose Weighting Factor of 20 for alpha particle dose to lung. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 100 weighted-mGy was 0.01 (95%CI -0.02, 0.03; n = 839) for lung cancer. The ERR at 100 mGy was -0.43 (95%CI -1.11, 0.24; n = 160) for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), -0.06 (95%CI -0.16, 0.04; n = 3043) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 0.29 (95%CI 0.02, 0.55; n = 106) for esophageal cancer. Among the 6499 workers with measurable intakes of plutonium, an increase in bone cancer (SMR 2.44; 95%CI 0.98, 5.03; n = 7) was related to dose. The SMR for berylliosis was significantly high, based on 4 deaths. SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrhosis of the liver, nonmalignant kidney disease and diabetes, but the excesses were not related to radiation dose.

CONCLUSIONS

There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer or leukemia. Esophageal cancer was associated with radiation, and plutonium intakes were linked to an increase of bone cancer. IHD was not associated with radiation dose. More precise evaluations will await the pooled analysis of workers with similar exposures such as at Rocky Flats, Savannah River and Hanford.

History of Dose, Risk, and Compensation Assessments for US Veterans of the 1966 Plutonium Cleanup in Palomares, Spain

In 1966, about 1,600 US military men-mostly Air Force-participated in a cleanup of plutonium dispersed from two nuclear bombs in Palomares, Spain. As a base for future analyses, we provide a history of the Palomares incident, including the dosimetry and risk analyses carried out to date and the compensation assessments made for veterans. By law, compensation for illnesses attributed to ionizing radiation is based on maximum estimated doses and standard risk coefficients, with considerable benefit of the doubt given to claimants when there is uncertainty. In the Palomares case, alpha activity in urine fell far faster than predicted by plutonium biokinetic excretion models used at the time. Most of the measurements were taken on-site but were disqualified on the grounds that they were "unreasonably high" and because there was a possibility of environmental contamination. Until the end of 2013, the Air Force used low dose estimates derived from environmental measurements carried out well after the cleanup. After these estimates were questioned by Congress, the Air Force adopted higher dose estimates based on plutonium concentration measurements in urine samples collected from 26 veterans after they left Palomares. The Air Force assumed that all other cleanup veterans received lower doses and therefore assigned to them maximum organ doses based on the individual among the 26 with the lowest urine measurements. These resulting maximum organ doses appear to be sufficient to justify compensation to all Palomares veterans with lung and bone cancer and early-onset liver cancer and leukemia but not other radiogenic cancers.

Building a job-exposure matrix for early plutonium workers at the Sellafield nuclear site, United Kingdom

The potential for adverse health effects from internal exposure to Plutonium has been recognised since its discovery in the 1940s. However, in the absence of specific information, potential risks from Plutonium exposure have always largely been controlled through knowledge of radiation exposure risks in general, much of which comes from external radiation exposures. To try to obtain more direct estimates of potential internal exposure risks, epidemiological studies of Plutonium workers need to be conducted. Such epidemiological analyses require individual Plutonium exposure estimates that are as accurate and unbiased as possible. The UK Sellafield workforce includes one of the world's largest cohorts of Plutonium workers, which constitutes, by some considerable margin, the group of workers most comprehensively monitored for internal exposure to this alpha-particle-emitter. However, for several hundred workers employed at the start of Plutonium work at the facility, during the period from 1952 through to 1963, the historical urinalysis results available cannot provide sufficiently accurate and unbiased exposure assessments needed for use in epidemiological studies. Consequently, these early workers have had to be excluded from epidemiological analyses and this has significantly reduced the power of these studies. A promising quantitative methodology to overcome the issue of missing or deficient exposure data, is to use exposure data from other sources to estimate the average exposure a 'typical worker' would have received, and to collate this information for specific occupations and years. This approach is called a Job-Exposure Matrix (JEM). Work on a pilot study to construct a population-specific quantitative JEM for the early Plutonium workers at Sellafield during 1952-1963, for whom reliable urinalysis results do not exist, has shown the potential for a JEM approach to produce more reliable and useful exposure estimates for epidemiological research.

An Assessment of Radiation-Associated Risks of Mortality from Circulatory Disease in the Cohorts of Mayak and Sellafield Nuclear Workers

Mortality from circulatory disease (CD), ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) was investigated in relationship to cumulative doses of external gamma radiation and internal alpha radiation to the liver from deposited plutonium over long follow-up periods in two large cohorts of nuclear workers: the Russian Mayak Worker Cohort (MWC) and the UK Sellafield Worker Cohort (SWC). The MWC comprised 22,374 workers (74.6% males) with 5,123 CD deaths registered during 842,538 person-years of follow-up, while the SWC comprised 23,443 workers (87.8% males) with 2,322 CD deaths registered during 602,311 person-years of follow-up. Dose estimates for external gamma radiation and internal alpha radiation to the liver were calculated via a common methodology, in accordance with an agreed protocol. The mean cumulative external H_p(10) dose was 0.52 Sv for the MWC and 0.07 Sv for the SWC, while the mean cumulative internal dose was 0.19 Gy for the MWC and 0.01 Gy for the SWC. Categorical relative risks (RR) and excess relative risks (ERR) per unit dose were estimated for each cohort and for the pooled cohort when appropriate. The dose responses for CD, IHD and CeVD in relationship to internal alpha-particle dose did not differ significantly from the null for either the MWC, the SWC or the pooled plutonium worker cohort. The ERR/Sv estimates in relationship to external exposure were significantly raised for both cohorts (marginally so for the MWC) for CD and IHD (but not for CeVD), but differed significantly between the two cohorts, the estimate for the SWC being approximately ten times greater than that for the MWC. Examination of the ERR/Sv estimates for two periods of first employment at the two facilities revealed that the significant heterogeneity was confined to the earlier sub-cohorts, and that the estimates for the later sub-cohorts were compatible. The two sub-cohorts for the later first-employment periods were pooled, producing risk estimates that were raised, but not significantly so: ERR/Sv for CD, IHD and CeVD of 0.22 (95% CI: -0.01, 0.49), 0.22 (95% CI: -0.06, 0.57) and 0.24 (95% CI: -0.17, 0.80), respectively. The reasons for the complex pattern of results found in this study are unclear. Among potential explanations are the influence of differences in background CD mortality rates, an effect of other occupational factors, substantial uncertainties in doses, particularly during earlier periods of operations, as well as confounding and/or modifying factors that were not taken into account in the current analysis.

Lung Cancer Risk from Plutonium: A Pooled Analysis of the Mayak and Sellafield Worker Cohorts

In this study, lung cancer risk from occupational plutonium exposure was analyzed in a pooled cohort of Mayak and Sellafield workers, two of the most informative cohorts in the world with detailed plutonium urine monitoring programs. The pooled cohort comprised 45,817 workers: 23,443 Sellafield workers first employed during 1947-2002 with follow-up until the end of 2005 and 22,374 Mayak workers first employed during 1948-1982 with follow-up until the end of 2008. In the pooled cohort 1,195 lung cancer deaths were observed (789 Mayak, 406 Sellafield) but only 893 lung cancer incidences (509 Mayak, 384 Sellafield, due to truncated follow-up in the incidence analysis). Analyses were performed using Poisson regression models, and were based on doses derived from individual radiation monitoring data using an updated dose assessment methodology developed in the study. There was clear evidence of a linear association between cumulative internal plutonium lung dose and risk of both lung cancer mortality and incidence in the pooled cohort. The pooled point estimates of the excess relative risk (ERR) from plutonium exposure for both lung cancer mortality and incidence were within the range of 5-8 per Gy for males at age 60. The ERR estimates in relationship to external gamma radiation were also significantly raised and in the range 0.2-0.4 per Gy of cumulative gamma dose to the lung. The point estimates of risk, for both external and plutonium exposure, were comparable between the cohorts, which suggests that the pooling of these data was valid. The results support point estimates of relative biological effectiveness (RBE) in the range of 10-25, which is in broad agreement with the value of 20 currently adopted in radiological protection as the radiation weighting factor for alpha particles, however, the uncertainty on this value (RBE = 21; 95% CI: 9-178) is large. The results provide direct evidence that the plutonium risks in each cohort are of the same order of magnitude but the uncertainty on the Sellafield cohort plutonium risk estimates is large, with observed risks consistent with no plutonium risk, and risks five times larger than those observed in the Mayak cohort.

Reconstruction of Internal Doses for the Alpha-Risk Case-Control Study of Lung Cancer and Leukaemia Among European Nuclear Workers

The Alpha-Risk study required the reconstruction of doses to lung and red bone marrow for lung cancer and leukaemia cases and their matched controls from cohorts of nuclear workers in the UK, France and Belgium. The dosimetrists and epidemiologists agreed requirements regarding the bioassay data, biokinetic and dosimetric models and dose assessment software to be used and doses to be reported. The best values to use for uncertainties on the monitoring data, setting of exposure regimes and characteristics of the exposure material, including lung solubility, were the responsibility of the dosimetrist responsible for each cohort. Among 1721 subjects, the median absorbed dose to the lung from alpha radiations was 2.1 mGy, with a maximum dose of 316 mGy. The lung doses calculated reflect the higher levels of exposure seen among workers in the early years of the nuclear industry compared to today.

Correction of confidence intervals in excess relative risk models using Monte Carlo dosimetry systems with shared errors

In epidemiological studies, exposures of interest are often measured with uncertainties, which may be independent or correlated. Independent errors can often be characterized relatively easily while correlated measurement errors have shared and hierarchical components that complicate the description of their structure. For some important studies, Monte Carlo dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of exposure estimates have been used to represent such complex error structures. While the effects of independent measurement errors on parameter estimation and methods to correct these effects have been studied comprehensively in the epidemiological literature, the literature on the effects of correlated errors, and associated correction methods is much more sparse. In this paper, we implement a novel method that calculates corrected confidence intervals based on the approximate asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates in linear excess relative risk (ERR) models. These models are widely used in survival analysis, particularly in radiation epidemiology. Specifically, for the dose effect estimate of interest (increase in relative risk per unit dose), a mixture distribution consisting of a normal and a lognormal component is applied. This choice of asymptotic approximation guarantees that corrected confidence intervals will always be bounded, a result which does not hold under a normal approximation. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the proposed method in survival analysis using a realistic ERR model. We used both simulated Monte Carlo dosimetry systems (MCDS) and actual dose histories from the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013, a MCDS for plutonium exposures in the Mayak Worker Cohort. Results show our proposed methods provide much improved coverage probabilities for the dose effect parameter, and noticeable improvements for other model parameters.

A review of job-exposure matrix methodology for application to workers exposed to radiation from internally deposited plutonium or other radioactive materials

Any potential health effects of radiation emitted from radionuclides deposited in the bodies of workers exposed to radioactive materials can be directly investigated through epidemiological studies. However, estimates of radionuclide exposure and consequent tissue-specific doses, particularly for early workers for whom monitoring was relatively crude but exposures tended to be highest, can be uncertain, limiting the accuracy of risk estimates. We review the use of job-exposure matrices (JEMs) in peer-reviewed epidemiological and exposure assessment studies of nuclear industry workers exposed to radioactive materials as a method for addressing gaps in exposure data, and discuss methodology and comparability between studies. We identified nine studies of nuclear worker cohorts in France, Russia, the USA and the UK that had incorporated JEMs in their exposure assessments. All these JEMs were study or cohort-specific, and although broadly comparable methodologies were used in their construction, this is insufficient to enable the transfer of any one JEM to another study. Moreover there was often inadequate detail on whether, or how, JEMs were validated. JEMs have become more detailed and more quantitative, and this trend may eventually enable better comparison across, and the pooling of, studies. We conclude that JEMs have been shown to be a valuable exposure assessment methodology for imputation of missing exposure data for nuclear worker cohorts with data not missing at random. The next step forward for direct comparison or pooled analysis of complete cohorts would be the use of transparent and transferable methods.

A Bayesian analysis of plutonium exposures in Sellafield workers

The joint Russian (Mayak Production Association) and British (Sellafield) plutonium worker epidemiological analysis, undertaken as part of the European Union Framework Programme 7 (FP7) SOLO project, aims to investigate potential associations between cancer incidence and occupational exposures to plutonium using estimates of organ/tissue doses. The dose reconstruction protocol derived for the study makes best use of the most recent biokinetic models derived by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) including a recent update to the human respiratory tract model (HRTM). This protocol was used to derive the final point estimates of absorbed doses for the study. Although uncertainties on the dose estimates were not included in the final epidemiological analysis, a separate Bayesian analysis has been performed for each of the 11 808 Sellafield plutonium workers included in the study in order to assess: A. The reliability of the point estimates provided to the epidemiologists and B. The magnitude of the uncertainty on dose estimates. This analysis, which accounts for uncertainties in biokinetic model parameters, intakes and measurement uncertainties, is described in the present paper. The results show that there is excellent agreement between the point estimates of dose and posterior mean values of dose. However, it is also evident that there are significant uncertainties associated with these dose estimates: the geometric range of the 97.5%:2.5% posterior values are a factor of 100 for lung dose, 30 for doses to liver and red bone marrow, and 40 for intakes: these uncertainties are not reflected in estimates of risk when point doses are used to assess them. It is also shown that better estimates of certain key HRTM absorption parameters could significantly reduce the uncertainties on lung dose in future studies.

Dose Estimation for a Study of Nuclear Workers in France, the United Kingdom and the United States of America: Methods for the International Nuclear Workers Study (INWORKS)

In the framework of the International Nuclear Workers Study conducted in France, the UK and the U.S. (INWORKS), updated and expanded methods were developed to convert recorded doses of ionizing radiation to estimates of organ doses or individual personal dose equivalent [H(p)(10)] for a total number of 308,297 workers, including 40,035 women. This approach accounts for differences in dosimeter response to predominant workplace energy and geometry of exposure and for the recently published ICRP report on dose coefficients for men and women separately. The overall mean annual individual personal dose equivalent, including zero doses, is 1.73 mSv [median = 0.42; interquartile range (IQR): 0.07, 1.59]. Associated individual organ doses were estimated. INWORKS includes workers who had potential for exposure to neutrons. Therefore, we analyzed neutron dosimetry data to identify workers potentially exposed to neutrons. We created a time-varying indicator for each worker, classifying them according to whether they had a positive recorded neutron dose and if so, whether their neutron dose ever exceeded 10% of their total external penetrating radiation dose. The number of workers flagged as being exposed to neutrons was 13% for the full cohort, with 15% of the cohort in France, 12% of the cohort in the UK and 14% in the U.S. We also used available information on in vivo and bioassay monitoring to identify workers with known depositions or suspected internal contaminations. As a result of this work, information is now available that will allow various types of sensitivity analyses.

Germline minisatellite mutations in workers occupationally exposed to radiation at the Sellafield nuclear facility

Germline minisatellite mutation rates were investigated in male workers occupationally exposed to radiation at the Sellafield nuclear facility. DNA samples from 160 families with 255 offspring were analysed for mutations at eight hypervariable minisatellite loci (B6.7, CEB1, CEB15, CEB25, CEB36, MS1, MS31, MS32) by Southern hybridisation. No significant difference was observed between the paternal mutation rate of 5.0% (37 mutations in 736 alleles) for control fathers with a mean preconceptional testicular dose of 9 mSv and that of 5.8% (66 in 1137 alleles) for exposed fathers with a mean preconceptional testicular dose of 194 mSv. Subgrouping the exposed fathers into two dose groups with means of 111 mSv and 274 mSv revealed paternal mutation rates of 6.0% (32 mutations in 536 alleles) and 5.7% (34 mutations in 601 alleles), respectively, neither of which was significantly different in comparisons with the rate for the control fathers. Maternal mutation rates of 1.6% (12 mutations in 742 alleles) for the partners of control fathers and 1.7% (19 mutations in 1133 alleles) for partners of exposed fathers were not significantly different. This study provides evidence that paternal preconceptional occupational radiation exposure does not increase the germline minisatellite mutation rate and therefore refutes suggestions that such exposure could result in a destabilisation of the germline that can be passed on to future generations.

A method for calculating Bayesian uncertainties on internal doses resulting from complex occupational exposures

Estimating uncertainties on doses from bioassay data is of interest in epidemiology studies that estimate cancer risk from occupational exposures to radionuclides. Bayesian methods provide a logical framework to calculate these uncertainties. However, occupational exposures often consist of many intakes, and this can make the Bayesian calculation computationally intractable. This paper describes a novel strategy for increasing the computational speed of the calculation by simplifying the intake pattern to a single composite intake, termed as complex intake regime (CIR). In order to assess whether this approximation is accurate and fast enough for practical purposes, the method is implemented by the Weighted Likelihood Monte Carlo Sampling (WeLMoS) method and evaluated by comparing its performance with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The MCMC method gives the full solution (all intakes are independent), but is very computationally intensive to apply routinely. Posterior distributions of model parameter values, intakes and doses are calculated for a representative sample of plutonium workers from the United Kingdom Atomic Energy cohort using the WeLMoS method with the CIR and the MCMC method. The distributions are in good agreement: posterior means and Q(0.025) and Q(0.975) quantiles are typically within 20 %. Furthermore, the WeLMoS method using the CIR converges quickly: a typical case history takes around 10-20 min on a fast workstation, whereas the MCMC method took around 12-72 hr. The advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed.

Uncertainties on lung doses from inhaled plutonium

In a recent epidemiological study, Bayesian uncertainties on lung doses have been calculated to determine lung cancer risk from occupational exposures to plutonium. These calculations used a revised version of the Human Respiratory Tract Model (HRTM) published by the ICRP. In addition to the Bayesian analyses, which give probability distributions of doses, point estimates of doses (single estimates without uncertainty) were also provided for that study using the existing HRTM as it is described in ICRP Publication 66; these are to be used in a preliminary analysis of risk. To infer the differences between the point estimates and Bayesian uncertainty analyses, this paper applies the methodology to former workers of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), who constituted a subset of the study cohort. The resulting probability distributions of lung doses are compared with the point estimates obtained for each worker. It is shown that mean posterior lung doses are around two- to fourfold higher than point estimates and that uncertainties on doses vary over a wide range, greater than two orders of magnitude for some lung tissues. In addition, we demonstrate that uncertainties on the parameter values, rather than the model structure, are largely responsible for these effects. Of these it appears to be the parameters describing absorption from the lungs to blood that have the greatest impact on estimates of lung doses from urine bioassay. Therefore, accurate determination of the chemical form of inhaled plutonium and the absorption parameter values for these materials is important for obtaining reliable estimates of lung doses and hence risk from occupational exposures to plutonium.

Plutonium worker dosimetry

Epidemiological studies of the relationship between risk and internal exposure to plutonium are clearly reliant on the dose estimates used. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is currently reviewing the latest scientific information available on biokinetic models and dosimetry, and it is likely that a number of changes to the existing models will be recommended. The effect of certain changes, particularly to the ICRP model of the respiratory tract, has been investigated for inhaled forms of (239)Pu and uncertainties have also been assessed. Notable effects of possible changes to respiratory tract model assumptions are (1) a reduction in the absorbed dose to target cells in the airways, if changes under consideration are made to the slow clearing fraction and (2) a doubling of absorbed dose to the alveolar region for insoluble forms, if evidence of longer retention times is taken into account. An important factor influencing doses for moderately soluble forms of (239)Pu is the extent of binding of dissolved plutonium to lung tissues and assumptions regarding the extent of binding in the airways. Uncertainty analyses have been performed with prior distributions chosen for application in epidemiological studies. The resulting distributions for dose per unit intake were lognormal with geometric standard deviations of 2.3 and 2.6 for nitrates and oxides, respectively. The wide ranges were due largely to consideration of results for a range of experimental data for the solubility of different forms of nitrate and oxides. The medians of these distributions were a factor of three times higher than calculated using current default ICRP parameter values. For nitrates, this was due to the assumption of a bound fraction, and for oxides due mainly to the assumption of slower alveolar clearance. This study highlights areas where more research is needed to reduce biokinetic uncertainties, including more accurate determination of particle transport rates and long-term dissolution for plutonium compounds, a re-evaluation of long-term binding of dissolved plutonium, and further consideration of modeling for plutonium absorbed to blood from the lungs.

Mayak worker dosimetry study: an overview

The Mayak Production Association (MPA) was the first plutonium production plant in the former Soviet Union. Workers at the MPA were exposed to relatively large internal radiation intakes and external radiation exposures, particularly in the early years of plant operations. This paper describes the updated dosimetry database, "Doses-2005." Doses-2005 represents a significant improvement in the determination of absorbed organ dose from external radiation and plutonium intake for the original cohort of 18,831 Mayak workers. The methods of dose reconstruction of absorbed organ doses from external radiation uses: 1) archive records of measured dose and worker exposure history, 2) measured energy and directional response characteristics of historical Mayak film dosimeters, and 3) calculated dose conversion factors for Mayak Study-defined exposure scenarios using Monte Carlo techniques. The methods of dose reconstruction for plutonium intake uses two revised models developed from empirical data derived from bioassay and autopsy cases and/or updates from prevailing or emerging International Commission on Radiological Protection models. Other sources of potential significant exposure to workers such as medical diagnostic x-rays, ambient onsite external radiation, neutron radiation, intake of airborne effluent, and intake of nuclides other than plutonium were evaluated to determine their impact on the dose estimates.

A comprehensive dose reconstruction methodology for former rocketdyne/atomics international radiation workers

Incomplete radiation exposure histories, inadequate treatment of internally deposited radionuclides, and failure to account for neutron exposures can be important uncertainties in epidemiologic studies of radiation workers. Organ-specific doses from lifetime occupational exposures and radionuclide intakes were estimated for an epidemiologic study of 5,801 Rocketdyne/Atomics International (AI) radiation workers engaged in nuclear technologies between 1948 and 1999. The entire workforce of 46,970 Rocketdyne/AI employees was identified from 35,042 Kardex work histories cards, 26,136 electronic personnel listings, and 14,189 radiation folders containing individual exposure histories. To obtain prior and subsequent occupational exposure information, the roster of all workers was matched against nationwide dosimetry files from the Department of Energy, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Landauer dosimetry company, the U.S. Army, and the U.S. Air Force. Dosimetry files of other worker studies were also accessed. Computation of organ doses from radionuclide intakes was complicated by the diversity of bioassay data collected over a 40-y period (urine and fecal samples, lung counts, whole-body counts, nasal smears, and wound and incident reports) and the variety of radionuclides with documented intake including isotopes of uranium, plutonium, americium, calcium, cesium, cerium, zirconium, thorium, polonium, promethium, iodine, zinc, strontium, and hydrogen (tritium). Over 30,000 individual bioassay measurements, recorded on 11 different bioassay forms, were abstracted. The bioassay data were evaluated using ICRP biokinetic models recommended in current or upcoming ICRP documents (modified for one inhaled material to reflect site-specific information) to estimate annual doses for 16 organs or tissues taking into account time of exposure, type of radionuclide, and excretion patterns. Detailed internal exposure scenarios were developed and annual internal doses were derived on a case-by-case basis for workers with committed equivalent doses indicated by screening criteria to be greater than 10 mSv to the organ with the highest internal dose. Overall, 5,801 workers were monitored for radiation at Rocketdyne/AI: 5,743 for external exposure and 2,232 for internal intakes of radionuclides; 41,169 workers were not monitored for radiation. The mean cumulative external dose based on Rocketdyne/AI records alone was 10.0 mSv, and the dose distribution was highly skewed with most workers experiencing low cumulative doses and only a few with high doses (maximum 500 mSv). Only 45 workers received greater than 200 mSv while employed at Rocketdyne/AI. However, nearly 32% (or 1,833) of the Rocketdyne/AI workers had been monitored for radiation at other nuclear facilities and incorporation of these doses increased the mean dose to 13.5 mSv (maximum 1,005 mSv) and the number of workers with >200 mSv to 69. For a small number of workers (n=292), lung doses from internal radionuclide intakes were relatively high (mean 106 mSv; maximum 3,560 mSv) and increased the overall population mean dose to 19.0 mSv and the number of workers with lung dose>200 mSv to 109. Nearly 10% of the radiation workers (584) were monitored for neutron exposures (mean 1.2 mSv) at Rocketdyne/AI, and another 2% were monitored for neutron exposures elsewhere. Interestingly, 1,477 workers not monitored for radiation at Rocketdyne/AI (3.6%) were found to have worn dosimeters at other nuclear facilities (mean external dose of 2.6 mSv, maximum 188 mSv). Without considering all sources of occupational exposure, an incorrect characterization of worker exposure would have occurred with the potential to bias epidemiologic results. For these pioneering workers in the nuclear industry, 26.5% of their total occupational dose (collective dose) was received at other facilities both prior to and after employment at Rocketdyne/AI. In addition, a small number of workers monitored for internal radionuclides contributed disproportionately to the number of workers with high lung doses. Although nearly 12% of radiation workers had been monitored for neutron exposures during their career, the cumulative dose levels were small in comparison with other external and internal exposure. Risk estimates based on nuclear worker data must be interpreted cautiously if internally deposited radionuclides and occupational doses received elsewhere are not considered.

Uncertainties analysis of doses resulting from chronic inhalation of plutonium at the Mayak production association

A method is presented to determine the uncertainties in the reported dose due to incorporated plutonium for the Mayak Worker Cohort. The methodology includes errors generated by both detection methods and modeling methods. To accomplish the task, the method includes classical statistics, Monte Carlo, perturbation, and reliability groupings. Uncertainties are reported in percent of reported dose as a function of total body burden. The cohort was initially sorted into six reliability groups, with "A" being the data set that the investigators are most confident is correct and "G" being the data set with the most ambiguous data. Categories were adjusted based on preliminary calculation of uncertainties using the sorting criteria. Specifically, the impact of transportability (the parameter used to describe the transport of plutonium from the lung to systemic organs) was underestimated, and the structure of the sort was reorganized to reflect the impact of transportability. The finalized categories are designated with Roman numerals I through V, with "I" being the most reliable. Excluding Category V (neither bioassay nor autopsy), the highest uncertainty in lung doses is for individuals from Category IV-which ranged from 90-375% for total body burdens greater than 10 Bq, along with work histories that indicated exposure to more than one transportability class. The smallest estimated uncertainties for lung doses were determined by autopsy. Category I has a 32-38% uncertainty in the lung dose for total body burdens greater than 1 Bq. First, these results provide a further definition and characterization of the cohort and, second, they provide uncertainty estimates for these plutonium exposure categories.

Chromosome intra- and inter-changes determined by G-banding in radiation workers with in vivo exposure to plutonium

Suggestions that exposure to intakes of alpha-emitting radionuclides such as plutonium could result in a specific profile of chromosome damage distinguishable from that of low LET irradiation have led to the re-analysis of the different types of chromosome aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes determined by G-banding in a group of 20 plutonium workers from the British Nuclear Fuels plc facility at Sellafield, UK. Comparisons were made with a group of workers with negligible plutonium intakes but similar external gamma doses and with an unexposed control group. Examination of simple translocation frequencies in the three groups indicated a significant difference (P = 0.033), with the higher frequency in the plutonium workers indicating that exposure from plutonium was contributing to the aberration yield. Slightly raised frequencies of both intra-chromosomal and complex aberrations were observed in the plutonium workers in comparison with the comparable external exposure group and the control group but the difference did not reach significance at the P = 0.05 level and there was no variation in the relative frequencies of the different aberration types between the three groups. There was, therefore, no firm indication from this study that either intra-chromosomal or complex aberrations could be used as a specific marker of high LET exposure in workers with historical intakes of plutonium.

Plutonium-related work and cause-specific mortality at the United States Department of Energy Hanford Site

BACKGROUND

Health effects of working with plutonium remain unclear. Plutonium workers at the United States Department of Energy (US-DOE) Hanford Site in Washington State, USA were evaluated for increased risks of cancer and non-cancer mortality.

METHODS

Periods of employment in jobs with routine or non-routine potential for plutonium exposure were identified for 26,389 workers hired between 1944 and 1978. Life table regression was used to examine associations of length of employment in plutonium jobs with confirmed plutonium deposition and with cause specific mortality through 1994.

RESULTS

Incidence of confirmed internal plutonium deposition in all plutonium workers was 15.4 times greater than in other Hanford jobs. Plutonium workers had low death rates compared to other workers, particularly for cancer causes. Mortality for several causes was positively associated with length of employment in routine plutonium jobs, especially for employment at older ages. At ages 50 and above, death rates for non-external causes of death, all cancers, cancers of tissues where plutonium deposits, and lung cancer, increased 2.0 +/- 1.1%, 2.6 +/- 2.0%, 4.9 +/- 3.3%, and 7.1 +/- 3.4% (+/-SE) per year of employment in routine plutonium jobs, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Workers employed in jobs with routine potential for plutonium exposure have low mortality rates compared to other Hanford workers even with adjustment for demographic, socioeconomic, and employment factors. This may be due, in part, to medical screening. Associations between duration of employment in jobs with routine potential for plutonium exposure and mortality may indicate occupational exposure effects.