Consideration of hereditary effects in the radiological protection system: evolution and current status

PURPOSE

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the methodology used to estimate radiation genetic risks and quantify the risk of hereditary effects as outlined in the ICRP Publication 103. It aims to highlight the historical background and development of the doubling dose method for estimating radiation-related genetic risks and its continued use in radiological protection frameworks.

RESULTS

This article emphasizes the complexity associated with quantifying the risk of hereditary effects caused by radiation exposure and highlights the need for further clarification and explanation of the calculation method. As scientific knowledge in radiation sciences and human genetics continues to advance in relation to a number of factors including stability of disease frequency, selection pressures, and epigenetic changes, the characterization and quantification of genetic effects still remains a major issue for the radiological protection system of the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

CONCLUSION

Further research and advancements in this field are crucial for enhancing our understanding and addressing the complexities involved in assessing and managing the risks associated with hereditary effects of radiation.

Cancer risk following low doses of ionising radiation - Current epidemiological evidence and implications for radiological protection

Recent studies suggest that every year worldwide about a million patients might be exposed to doses of the order of 100 mGy of low-LET radiation, due to recurrent application of radioimaging procedures. This paper presents a synthesis of recent epidemiological evidence on radiation-related cancer risks from low-LET radiation doses of this magnitude. Evidence from pooled analyses and meta-analyses also involving epidemiological studies that, individually, do not find statistically significant radiation-related cancer risks is reviewed, and evidence from additional and more recent epidemiological studies of radiation exposures indicating excess cancer risks is also summarized. Cohorts discussed in the present paper include Japanese atomic bomb survivors, nuclear workers, patients exposed for medical purposes, and populations exposed environmentally to natural background radiation or radioactive contamination. Taken together, the overall evidence summarized here is based on studies including several million individuals, many of them followed-up for more than half a century. In summary, substantial evidence was found from epidemiological studies of exposed groups of humans that ionizing radiation causes cancer at acute and protracted doses above 100 mGy, and growing evidence for doses below 100 mGy. The significant radiation-related solid cancer risks observed at doses of several 100 mGy of protracted exposures (observed, for example, among nuclear workers) demonstrate that doses accumulated over many years at low dose rates do cause stochastic health effects. On this basis, it can be concluded that doses of the order of 100 mGy from recurrent application of medical imaging procedures involving ionizing radiation are of concern, from the viewpoint of radiological protection.

The use of dose quantities in radiological protection: ICRP publication 147 Ann ICRP 50(1) 2021

The International Commission on Radiological Protection has recently published a report (ICRP Publication 147;Ann. ICRP50, 2021) on the use of dose quantities in radiological protection, under the same authorship as this Memorandum. Here, we present a brief summary of the main elements of the report. ICRP Publication 147 consolidates and clarifies the explanations provided in the 2007 ICRP Recommendations (Publication 103) but reaches conclusions that go beyond those presented in Publication 103. Further guidance is provided on the scientific basis for the control of radiation risks using dose quantities in occupational, public and medical applications. It is emphasised that best estimates of risk to individuals will use organ/tissue absorbed doses, appropriate relative biological effectiveness factors and dose-risk models for specific health effects. However, bearing in mind uncertainties including those associated with risk projection to low doses or low dose rates, it is concluded that in the context of radiological protection, effective dose may be considered as an approximate indicator of possible risk of stochastic health effects following low-level exposure to ionising radiation. In this respect, it should also be recognised that lifetime cancer risks vary with age at exposure, sex and population group. The ICRP report also concludes that equivalent dose is not needed as a protection quantity. Dose limits for the avoidance of tissue reactions for the skin, hands and feet, and lens of the eye will be more appropriately set in terms of absorbed dose rather than equivalent dose.

Modelling the bimodal distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates in Great Britain

Gamma radiation from naturally occurring sources (including directly ionizing cosmic-rays) is a major component of background radiation. An understanding of the magnitude and variation of doses from these sources is important, and the ability to predict them is required for epidemiological studies. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma-rays at representative locations in Great Britain are summarized. It is shown that, although the individual measurement data appear unimodal, the distribution of gamma-ray dose-rates when averaged over relatively small areas, which probably better represents the underlying distribution with inter-house variation reduced, appears bimodal. The dose-rate distributions predicted by three empirical and geostatistical models are also bimodal and compatible with the distributions of the areally averaged dose-rates. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates in the UK is compared with those in other countries, which also tend to appear bimodal (or possibly multimodal). The variation of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates with geology, socio-economic status of the area, building type, and period of construction are explored. The factors affecting indoor dose-rates from background gamma radiation are complex and frequently intertwined, but geology, period of construction, and socio-economic status are influential; the first is potentially most influential, perhaps, because it can be used as a general proxy for local building materials. Various statistical models are tested for predicting indoor gamma-ray dose-rates at unmeasured locations. Significant improvements over previous modelling are reported. The dose-rate estimates generated by these models reflect the imputed underlying distribution of dose-rates and provide acceptable predictions at geographical locations without measurements.

Implications of recent epidemiologic studies for the linear nonthreshold model and radiation protection

The recently published NCRP Commentary No. 27 evaluated the new information from epidemiologic studies as to their degree of support for applying the linear nonthreshold (LNT) model of carcinogenic effects for radiation protection purposes (NCRP 2018 Implications of Recent Epidemiologic Studies for the Linear Nonthreshold Model and Radiation Protection, Commentary No. 27 (Bethesda, MD: National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements)). The aim was to determine whether recent epidemiologic studies of low-LET radiation, particularly those at low doses and/or low dose rates (LD/LDR), broadly support the LNT model of carcinogenic risk or, on the contrary, demonstrate sufficient evidence that the LNT model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection. An updated review was needed because a considerable number of reports of radiation epidemiologic studies based on new or updated data have been published since other major reviews were conducted by national and international scientific committees. The Commentary provides a critical review of the LD/LDR studies that are most directly applicable to current occupational, environmental and medical radiation exposure circumstances. This Memorandum summarises several of the more important LD/LDR studies that incorporate radiation dose responses for solid cancer and leukemia that were reviewed in Commentary No. 27. In addition, an overview is provided of radiation studies of breast and thyroid cancers, and cancer after childhood exposures. Non-cancers are briefly touched upon such as ischemic heart disease, cataracts, and heritable genetic effects. To assess the applicability and utility of the LNT model for radiation protection, the Commentary evaluated 29 epidemiologic studies or groups of studies, primarily of total solid cancer, in terms of strengths and weaknesses in their epidemiologic methods, dosimetry approaches, and statistical modelling, and the degree to which they supported a LNT model for continued use in radiation protection. Recommendations for how to make epidemiologic radiation studies more informative are outlined. The NCRP Committee recognises that the risks from LD/LDR exposures are small and uncertain. The Committee judged that the available epidemiologic data were broadly supportive of the LNT model and that at this time no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes.

An Assessment of Radiation-Associated Risks of Mortality from Circulatory Disease in the Cohorts of Mayak and Sellafield Nuclear Workers

Mortality from circulatory disease (CD), ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) was investigated in relationship to cumulative doses of external gamma radiation and internal alpha radiation to the liver from deposited plutonium over long follow-up periods in two large cohorts of nuclear workers: the Russian Mayak Worker Cohort (MWC) and the UK Sellafield Worker Cohort (SWC). The MWC comprised 22,374 workers (74.6% males) with 5,123 CD deaths registered during 842,538 person-years of follow-up, while the SWC comprised 23,443 workers (87.8% males) with 2,322 CD deaths registered during 602,311 person-years of follow-up. Dose estimates for external gamma radiation and internal alpha radiation to the liver were calculated via a common methodology, in accordance with an agreed protocol. The mean cumulative external H_p(10) dose was 0.52 Sv for the MWC and 0.07 Sv for the SWC, while the mean cumulative internal dose was 0.19 Gy for the MWC and 0.01 Gy for the SWC. Categorical relative risks (RR) and excess relative risks (ERR) per unit dose were estimated for each cohort and for the pooled cohort when appropriate. The dose responses for CD, IHD and CeVD in relationship to internal alpha-particle dose did not differ significantly from the null for either the MWC, the SWC or the pooled plutonium worker cohort. The ERR/Sv estimates in relationship to external exposure were significantly raised for both cohorts (marginally so for the MWC) for CD and IHD (but not for CeVD), but differed significantly between the two cohorts, the estimate for the SWC being approximately ten times greater than that for the MWC. Examination of the ERR/Sv estimates for two periods of first employment at the two facilities revealed that the significant heterogeneity was confined to the earlier sub-cohorts, and that the estimates for the later sub-cohorts were compatible. The two sub-cohorts for the later first-employment periods were pooled, producing risk estimates that were raised, but not significantly so: ERR/Sv for CD, IHD and CeVD of 0.22 (95% CI: -0.01, 0.49), 0.22 (95% CI: -0.06, 0.57) and 0.24 (95% CI: -0.17, 0.80), respectively. The reasons for the complex pattern of results found in this study are unclear. Among potential explanations are the influence of differences in background CD mortality rates, an effect of other occupational factors, substantial uncertainties in doses, particularly during earlier periods of operations, as well as confounding and/or modifying factors that were not taken into account in the current analysis.

Assessing the reliability of dose coefficients for exposure to radioiodine by members of the public, accounting for dosimetric and risk model uncertainties

Assessments of risk to a specific population group resulting from internal exposure to a particular radionuclide can be used to assess the reliability of the appropriate International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) dose coefficients used as a radiation protection device for the specified exposure pathway. An estimate of the uncertainty on the associated risk is important for informing judgments on reliability; a derived uncertainty factor, UF, is an estimate of the 95% probable geometric difference between the best risk estimate and the nominal risk and is a useful tool for making this assessment. This paper describes the application of parameter uncertainty analysis to quantify uncertainties resulting from internal exposures to radioiodine by members of the public, specifically 1, 10 and 20-year old females from the population of England and Wales. Best estimates of thyroid cancer incidence risk (lifetime attributable risk) are calculated for ingestion or inhalation of ¹²⁹I and ¹³¹I, accounting for uncertainties in biokinetic model and cancer risk model parameter values. These estimates are compared with the equivalent ICRP derived nominal age-, sex- and population-averaged estimates of excess thyroid cancer incidence to obtain UFs. Derived UF values for ingestion or inhalation of ¹³¹I for 1 year, 10-year and 20-year olds are around 28, 12 and 6, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 103 nominal values, and 9, 7 and 14, respectively, when compared with ICRP Publication 60 values. Broadly similar results were obtained for ¹²⁹I. The uncertainties on risk estimates are largely determined by uncertainties on risk model parameters rather than uncertainties on biokinetic model parameters. An examination of the sensitivity of the results to the risk models and populations used in the calculations show variations in the central estimates of risk of a factor of around 2-3. It is assumed that the direct proportionality of excess thyroid cancer risk and dose observed at low to moderate acute doses and incorporated in the risk models also applies to very small doses received at very low dose rates; the uncertainty in this assumption is considerable, but largely unquantifiable. The UF values illustrate the need for an informed approach to the use of ICRP dose and risk coefficients.

Spatial prediction of naturally occurring gamma radiation in Great Britain

Gamma radiation from natural sources is an important component of background radiation, and correlates with childhood leukaemia risk in Great Britain. The geographic variation of indoor gamma radiation dose-rates in Great Britain is explored using various geo-statistical methods. A multi-resolution Gaussian-process model using radial basis functions with 2, 4, or 8 components, is fitted via maximum likelihood, and a non-spatial model is also used, fitted by ordinary least squares. Because of the dataset size (N = 10,199), four other parametric spatial models are fitted by variogram-fitting. A randomly selected 70:30 split is used for fitting:validation. The models are evaluated based on their predictive performance as measured by Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, as well as Pearson correlation and rank-correlation between predicted and actual dose-rates. Each of the four parametric models (Matérn, Gaussian, Bessel, Spherical) fitted the empirical variogram well, and yielded similar predictions at >50 km separation, although with more substantial differences in predicted variograms at <50 km. The multi-resolution Gaussian-process model with 8 components had the best predictive accuracy among the models considered. The Spherical, Bessel, Matérn, Gaussian and ordinary least squares models had progressively worse predictive performance, the ordinary least squares model being particularly poor in this respect.

Use of effective dose

International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 103 provided a detailed explanation of the purpose and use of effective dose and equivalent dose to individual organs and tissues. Effective dose has proven to be a valuable and robust quantity for use in the implementation of protection principles. However, questions have arisen regarding practical applications, and a Task Group has been set up to consider issues of concern. This paper focusses on two key proposals developed by the Task Group that are under consideration by ICRP: (1) confusion will be avoided if equivalent dose is no longer used as a protection quantity, but regarded as an intermediate step in the calculation of effective dose. It would be more appropriate for limits for the avoidance of deterministic effects to the hands and feet, lens of the eye, and skin, to be set in terms of the quantity, absorbed dose (Gy) rather than equivalent dose (Sv). (2) Effective dose is in widespread use in medical practice as a measure of risk, thereby going beyond its intended purpose. While doses incurred at low levels of exposure may be measured or assessed with reasonable reliability, health effects have not been demonstrated reliably at such levels but are inferred. However, bearing in mind the uncertainties associated with risk projection to low doses or low dose rates, it may be considered reasonable to use effective dose as a rough indicator of possible risk, with the additional consideration of variation in risk with age, sex and population group.

Levels of naturally occurring gamma radiation measured in British homes and their prediction in particular residences

Gamma radiation from natural sources (including directly ionising cosmic rays) is an important component of background radiation. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma rays that were undertaken as part of the UK Childhood Cancer Study are summarised, and it is shown that these are broadly compatible with an earlier UK National Survey. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose rates in Great Britain is approximately normal with mean 96 nGy/h and standard deviation 23 nGy/h. Directly ionising cosmic rays contribute about one-third of the total. The expanded dataset allows a more detailed description than previously of indoor gamma-ray exposures and in particular their geographical variation. Various strategies for predicting indoor natural background gamma-ray dose rates were explored. In the first of these, a geostatistical model was fitted, which assumes an underlying geologically determined spatial variation, superimposed on which is a Gaussian stochastic process with Matérn correlation structure that models the observed tendency of dose rates in neighbouring houses to correlate. In the second approach, a number of dose-rate interpolation measures were first derived, based on averages over geologically or administratively defined areas or using distance-weighted averages of measurements at nearest-neighbour points. Linear regression was then used to derive an optimal linear combination of these interpolation measures. The predictive performances of the two models were compared via cross-validation, using a randomly selected 70 % of the data to fit the models and the remaining 30 % to test them. The mean square error (MSE) of the linear-regression model was lower than that of the Gaussian-Matérn model (MSE 378 and 411, respectively). The predictive performance of the two candidate models was also evaluated via simulation; the OLS model performs significantly better than the Gaussian-Matérn model.

Residential mobility and associated factors in relation to the assessment of exposure to naturally occurring radiation in studies of childhood cancer

Migration, that is the study subjects moving from one residential address to another, is a complication for epidemiological studies where exposures to the agent of interest depend on place of residence [corrected]. In this paper we explore migration in cases from a large British case-control study of childhood cancer and natural background radiation. We find that 44% of cases had not moved house between birth and diagnosis, and about two-thirds were living within 2 km of their residence at birth. The estimated dose at the diagnosis address was strongly correlated with that at the birth address, suggesting that use of just the birth address in this case-control study does not lead to serious bias in risk estimates. We also review other individual-based studies of naturally occurring radiation, with particular emphasis on those from Great Britain. Interview-based case-control and cohort studies can potentially establish full residential histories for study subjects and make direct measurements of radiation levels in the dwellings in question. However, in practice, because of study size and difficulties in obtaining adequate response rates, interview-based studies generally do not use full residential histories, and a substantial proportion of dose estimates often derive from models rather than direct measurements. More seriously, problems of incomplete response may lead to bias, not just to loss of power. Record-based case-control studies, which do not require direct contact with study subjects, avoid such problems, but at the expense of having only model-based exposure estimates that use databases of measurements.

A report from the 2013 international symposium: the evaluation of the effects of low-dose radiation exposure in the life span study of atomic bomb survivors and other similar studies

The RERF International Low-Dose Symposium was held on 5-6 December 2013 at the RERF campus in Hiroshima, Japan, to discuss the issues facing the Life Span Study (LSS) and other low-dose studies. Topics included the current status of low-dose risk detection, strategies for low-dose epidemiological and statistical research, methods to improve communication between epidemiologists and biologists, and the current status of radiological studies and tools. Key points made by the participants included the necessity of pooling materials over multiple studies to gain greater insight where data from single studies are insufficient; generating models that reflect epidemiological, statistical, and biological principles simultaneously; understanding confounders and effect modifiers in the current data; and taking into consideration less studied factors such as the impact of dose rate. It is the hope of all participants that this symposium be used as a trigger for further studies, especially those using pooled data, in order to reach a greater understanding of the health effects of low-dose radiation.

A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident

We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in the first year and continuing exposure, the lifetime radiation-related cancer risks based on lifetime dose (which are highest for children under 5 years of age at initial exposure), are small, and much smaller than the lifetime baseline cancer risks. For example, after initial exposure at age 1 year, the lifetime excess radiation risk and baseline risk of all solid cancers in females were estimated to be 0.7 · 10(-2) and 29.0 · 10(-2), respectively. The 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are very small. However, for initial exposure in childhood, the 15 year risks based on the lifetime reference dose are up to 33 and 88% as large as the 15 year baseline risks for leukemia and thyroid cancer, respectively. The results may be scaled to particular dose estimates after consideration of caveats. One caveat is related to the lack of epidemiological evidence defining risks at low doses, because the predicted risks come from cancer risk models fitted to a wide dose range (0-4 Gy), which assume that the solid cancer and leukemia lifetime risks for doses less than about 0.5 Gy and 0.2 Gy, respectively, are proportional to organ/tissue doses: this is unlikely to seriously underestimate risks, but may overestimate risks. This WHO-HRA framework may be used to update the risk estimates, when new population health statistics data, dosimetry information and radiation risk models become available.

Childhood leukaemia risks: from unexplained findings near nuclear installations to recommendations for future research

Recent findings related to childhood leukaemia incidence near nuclear installations have raised questions which can be answered neither by current knowledge on radiation risk nor by other established risk factors. In 2012, a workshop was organised on this topic with two objectives: (a) review of results and discussion of methodological limitations of studies near nuclear installations; (b) identification of directions for future research into the causes and pathogenesis of childhood leukaemia. The workshop gathered 42 participants from different disciplines, extending widely outside of the radiation protection field. Regarding the proximity of nuclear installations, the need for continuous surveillance of childhood leukaemia incidence was highlighted, including a better characterisation of the local population. The creation of collaborative working groups was recommended for consistency in methodologies and the possibility of combining data for future analyses. Regarding the causes of childhood leukaemia, major fields of research were discussed (environmental risk factors, genetics, infections, immunity, stem cells, experimental research). The need for multidisciplinary collaboration in developing research activities was underlined, including the prevalence of potential predisposition markers and investigating further the infectious aetiology hypothesis. Animal studies and genetic/epigenetic approaches appear of great interest. Routes for future research were pointed out.

Leukaemia in young children in the vicinity of British nuclear power plants: a case-control study

Background:

Concern about the risk of leukaemia in children living near nuclear power plants (NPPs) persists. Previous British analyses have been area based and consequently thought to be less effective than case–control studies.

Methods:

Cases of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (LNHL) born and diagnosed in Great Britain between 1962 and 2007, with matched cancer-free controls, were analysed by logistic regression to estimate the risk of residential proximity at birth and diagnosis to the nearest NPP, adjusting for relevant variables.

Results:

For 9821 children with LNHL under the age of 5 years, the estimated extra risk associated with residential proximity to an NPP at birth was negative—interpolated Odds Ratio (OR) at 5 km was 0.86 (0.49–1.52). The comparison of 10 618 children with LNHL under five with 16 760 similarly aged children with other cancers also gave a negative estimate of the extra risk of residential proximity at diagnosis—interpolated OR at 5 km was 0.86 (0.62–1.18).

Conclusion:

Our results show little evidence of an increase in risk of LNHL to children aged under 5 years from living in the vicinity of an NPP. Risk estimates are incompatible with comparable ones published in a recent German case–control study.

Radiation effects: Modulating factors and risk assessment -- an overview

Following low dose or low dose-rate exposures to ionising radiation, the principal resulting radiation-related risk is cancer. Site-specific cancer risk models have been developed that describe how the radiation-induced risk of a particular cancer type varies with the relevant tissue-specific absorbed dose of radiation. The degree of risk will also be determined by the radiation quality and the dose-rate, factors that will vary between types of radiation and cancer. Risk models also include a number of intrinsic factors that modify the radiation-related excess risk - sex, age at exposure, time since exposure, and attained age - although not all these factors enter into each site-specific model. Of some importance is how the radiation-related excess risk is transferred between populations when background incidence rates differ. For most cancer types, expert groups consider that the radiation-related excess risk in a population depends, to some extent, upon the background incidence rate, and therefore that radiation interacts with at least some of the major risk factors that determine the background risk for a person. For example, the radiation-induced risk of lung cancer depends on the degree of individual exposure to tobacco smoke, but the implicit assumption of the currently accepted risk transfer models is that interactions are a general feature of radiation-related cancer risk.

The statistical power of epidemiological studies analyzing the relationship between exposure to ionizing radiation and cancer, with special reference to childhood leukemia and natural background radiation

The etiology of childhood leukemia remains generally unknown, although risk models based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors imply that the dose accumulated from protracted exposure to low-level natural background ionizing radiation materially raises the risk of leukemia in children. In this paper a novel Monte Carlo score-test methodology is used to assess the statistical power of cohort, ecological and case-control study designs, using the linear low-dose part of the BEIR V model derived from the Japanese data. With 10 (or 20) years of follow-up of childhood leukemias in Great Britain, giving about 4600 (or 9200) cases, under an individual-based cohort design there is 67.9% (or 90.9%) chance of detecting an excess (at 5% significance level, one-sided test); little difference is made by extreme heterogeneity in risk. For an ecological design these figures reduce to 57.9% (or 83.2%). Case-control studies with five controls per case achieve much of the power of a cohort design, 61.1% (or 86.0%). However, participation bias may seriously affect studies that require individual consent, and area-based studies are subject to severe interpretational problems. For this reason register-based studies, in particular those that make use of predicted doses that avoid the need for interviews, have considerable advantages. We argue that previous studies have been underpowered (all have power <80%), and some are also subject to unquantifiable biases and confounding. Sufficiently large studies should be capable of detecting the predicted risk attributable to natural background radiation.

Review and meta-analysis of epidemiological associations between low/moderate doses of ionizing radiation and circulatory disease risks, and their possible mechanisms

Although the link between high doses of ionizing radiation and damage to the heart and coronary arteries has been well established for some time, the association between lower-dose exposures and late occurring cardiovascular disease has only recently begun to emerge, and is still controversial. In this paper, we extend an earlier systematic review by Little et al. on the epidemiological evidence for associations between low and moderate doses of ionizing radiation exposure and late occurring blood circulatory system disease. Excess relative risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well-known (but unobserved) risk factors, and there is statistically significant (p < 0.00001) heterogeneity between the risks. This heterogeneity is reduced, but remains significant, if adjustments are made for the effects of fractionated delivery or if there is stratification by endpoint (cardiovascular disease vs. stroke, morbidity vs. mortality). One possible biological mechanism is damage to endothelial cells and subsequent induction of an inflammatory response, although it seems unlikely that this would extend to low-dose and low-dose-rate exposure. A recent paper of Little et al. proposed an arguably more plausible mechanism for fractionated low-dose effects, based on monocyte cell killing in the intima. Although the predictions of the model are consistent with the epidemiological data, the experimental predictions made have yet to be tested. Further epidemiological and biological evidence will allow a firmer conclusion to be drawn.

New models for evaluation of radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk and its uncertainty employed in the UNSCEAR 2006 report

Generalized relative and absolute risk models are fitted to the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor solid cancer and leukemia mortality data (through 2000), with the latest (DS02) dosimetry, by classical (regression calibration) and Bayesian techniques, taking account of errors in dose estimates and other uncertainties. Linear-quadratic and linear-quadratic-exponential models are fitted and used to assess risks for contemporary populations of China, Japan, Puerto Rico, the U.S. and the UK. Many of these models are the same as or very similar to models used in the UNSCEAR 2006 report. For a test dose of 0.1 Sv, the solid cancer mortality for a UK population using the generalized linear-quadratic relative risk model is estimated as 5.4% Sv(-1) [90% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 3.1, 8.0]. At 0.1 Sv, leukemia mortality for a UK population using the generalized linear-quadratic relative risk model is estimated as 0.50% Sv(-1) (90% BCI 0.11, 0.97). Risk estimates varied little between populations; at 0.1 Sv the central estimates ranged from 3.7 to 5.4% Sv(-1) for solid cancers and from 0.4 to 0.6% Sv(-1) for leukemia. Analyses using regression calibration techniques yield central estimates of risk very similar to those for the Bayesian approach. The central estimates of population risk were similar for the generalized absolute risk model and the relative risk model. Linear-quadratic-exponential models predict lower risks (at least at low test doses) and appear to fit as well, although for other (theoretical) reasons we favor the simpler linear-quadratic models.

Systematic review of epidemiological studies of exposure to tritium

Tritium (3H) is a radioactive isotope of hydrogen. A number of factors combine to create a good deal of interest in the risks arising from exposure to tritium of both workers and members of the public. Tritium is ubiquitous in environmental and biological systems and is very mobile due to its occurrence as tritiated water. In this paper we systematically review epidemiological data relating to tritium exposure with a view to assessing the risk of such exposure using those studies that are potentially informative. The usefulness of the available studies of cancer and other adverse health effects in workforces and members of the general public is often impaired by a lack of tritium-specific dose data, low doses and small numbers of cases. A number of workforce studies have been identified in which tritium-specific individual doses have been estimated, although none of them, as presently reported, enable reliable inferences to be made on risks associated with exposure to tritium. In general, the available epidemiological studies on the offspring of radiation workers or on pregnancy outcome in areas subject to releases of tritium do not contain enough detail to estimate risks from tritium exposure. Although the studies presently reported are uninformative on risks from tritium, a number of the occupationally exposed cohorts would be potentially informative, particularly if data were suitably combined.

A systematic review of epidemiological associations between low and moderate doses of ionizing radiation and late cardiovascular effects, and their possible mechanisms

Little, M. P., Tawn, E. J., Tzoulaki, I., Wakeford, R., Hildebrandt, G., Paris, F., Tapio, S. and Elliott, P. A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Associations Between Low and Moderate Doses of Ionizing Radiation and Late Cardiovascular Effects, and Their Possible Mechanisms. Radiat. Res. 169, 99-109 (2008). The link between high doses of ionizing radiation and damage to the heart and coronary arteries is established. In this paper, we systematically review the epidemiological evidence for associations between low and moderate doses (<5 Gy) of ionizing radiation and late-occurring cardiovascular disease. Risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding factors. An examination of possible biological mechanisms indicates that the most likely causative effect of radiation exposure is damage to endothelial cells and subsequent induction of an inflammatory response, although it seems unlikely that this would extend to low-dose and low-dose-rate exposure. However, a role for somatic mutation has been proposed that would indicate a stochastic effect. In the absence of a convincing mechanistic explanation of epidemiological evidence that is less than persuasive at present, a cause-and-effect interpretation of the reported statistical associations cannot be reliably inferred, although neither can it be reliably excluded. Further epidemiological and biological evidence will allow a firmer conclusion to be drawn.

Lung cancer mortality at a UK tin smelter

BACKGROUND

An earlier study of mortality among male former employees at a tin smelter in Humberside, UK, had identified excess mortality from lung cancer, which appeared to be associated with occupational exposure.

AIMS

The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between lung cancer mortality and quantitative measures of exposure.

METHODS

Using available records of occupational hygiene measurements, we established exposure matrices for arsenic, cadmium, lead, antimony and polonium-210 ((210)Po), covering the main process areas of the smelter. We established work histories from personnel record cards for the previously defined cohort of 1462 male employees. Three different methods of extrapolation were used to assess exposures prior to 1972, when no measurement results were available. Lung cancer mortality was examined in relation to cumulative inhalation exposure by Poisson regression analysis.

RESULTS

No significant associations could be found between lung cancer mortality and simple cumulative exposure to any of the substances studied. When cumulative exposures were weighted according to time since exposure and attained age, significant associations were found between lung cancer mortality and exposures to arsenic, lead and antimony.

CONCLUSIONS

The excess of lung cancer mortality in the cohort can most plausibly be explained if arsenic is the principal occupational carcinogen (for which the excess relative risk diminishes with time since exposure and attained age) and if there is a contribution to excess mortality from an enhanced prevalence of smoking within the cohort. The implications of the dose-response for arsenic exposure for risk estimation merit further consideration.

Mortality experience of male workers at a UK tin smelter

BACKGROUND

Between 1937 and 1991, Capper Pass and Sons Limited operated a tin smelter complex in North Humberside, UK, at which employees were potentially exposed to a number of substances, including lead, arsenic, cadmium and natural series radionuclides. Decommissioning and site clearance continued until 1995. Between 1967 and 1995 the company was a subsidiary of Rio Tinto plc.

AIMS

The aim was to identify any significant excess, or deficits, in mortality among former employees that might be attributable to factors associated with occupation.

METHODS

We defined a cohort of 1462 males who had been employed for at least 12 months between 1/11/1967 and 28/7/1995, followed-up through to 31/12/2001. The mortality of the cohort was compared against that expected for both national and regional populations.

RESULTS

Mortality from all causes and all cancers did not differ from that expected. Mortality from ischaemic heart disease showed a deficit and mortality from lung cancer showed a statistically significant excess. Mortality from smoking related diseases other than lung cancer showed a non-significant deficit.

CONCLUSIONS

The pattern of lung cancer mortality is consistent with the hypothesis that the risk of lung cancer has been enhanced by occupational exposure to one or more carcinogens, the effect of which diminishes with time since exposure. The deficit in ischaemic heart disease may be attributed to a protective effect from manual labour. The results provide no evidence for attribution of other excess or deficits in mortality to factors associated with employment.

How should paediatric examiners be trained?

Analysis of both the content and process of examinations is central to planning the appropriate education and training of examiners in paediatric clinical examinations. This paper discusses the case for developing training, reviews the current literature, and suggests the desirable attributes of examiners and the components of a training programme. Potential areas of further research are also considered.

Risk coefficients for childhood cancer after intrauterine irradiation: a review

PURPOSE

To review the estimates of the risk of childhood cancer per unit dose of radiation received in utero derived from the largest case-control study of obstetric X-ray examinations and to compare them with the childhood cancer risk coefficients obtained from the cohorts of Japanese atomic bomb survivors irradiated either in utero or as young children.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers (OSCC) case-control study of foetal exposure to diagnostic X-rays and from the cohort studies of the Japanese survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were used, together with associated dose estimates. Excess relative risk and excess absolute risk coefficients were compared, fully taking into consideration the various sources of uncertainty.

RESULTS

The excess relative risk coefficient for childhood (< 15 years of age) cancer obtained from the OSCC was around 50 Gy(-1), leading to an excess absolute risk coefficient for incident cases of about 8% Gy(-1). However, the statistical, dosimetry, modelling and other uncertainties associated with these risk estimates are appreciable, and there is reason to believe that these coefficients could be systematic overestimates. When these uncertainties and those associated with the equivalent risk coefficients derived from the Japanese cohort exposed in utero are taken into account, the risk estimates for childhood cancer obtained from these two sources are compatible. These coefficients are consistent with the high relative risk of childhood leukaemia among the Japanese survivors exposed as children. The absence of cases of childhood solid tumours among the Japanese children irradiated after birth in contrast to the significant excesses found in both intrauterine exposure studies might be explained by the cells from which these cancers originate being predominantly sensitive only to exposure in utero.

CONCLUSIONS

The consistency of the childhood cancer risk coefficients derived from the Oxford Survey and from the Japanese cohort irradiated in utero supports a causal explanation of the association between childhood cancer and an antenatal X-ray examination found in case-control studies. This implies that doses to the foetus in utero of the order of 10 mSv discernibly increase the risk of childhood cancer. However, uncertainties in risk estimates are such that it is difficult to conclude reliably from these epidemiological data what the level of risk at these low doses might be, beyond the inference that the risk is not zero or has been grossly underestimated.

The use of portfolios for assessment of the competence and performance of doctors in practice

BACKGROUND

The use of portfolios can potentially provide flexibility in the summative assessment of doctors in practice. An assessment system should reflect and reinforce the active and planned professional development goals of individual doctors. This paper discusses some of the issues involved in developing such a system.

RESULTS

To provide a complete picture of an individual doctor's practice, we suggest that a portfolio should encompass: (1) evidence covering all three domains of patient care, personal development and context management; (2) evidence that the person continuously undertakes critical assessment of their own performance, identifies and prioritises areas requiring enhanced performance and takes action to improve them as appropriate; (3) evidence that has been generated by assessments that are acceptably reliable, and (4) evidence which, taken in its entirety, is sufficient, valid, current and authentic. We include a suggested outline of the components of such a portfolio and suggest some criteria to determine the effectiveness of learning cycles. Portfolio reliability and validity requires sufficient evidence on which to base a judgement combined with reliable processes.

CONCLUSION

Carefully specified portfolios can contribute to a system that ensures all doctors take an active part in identifying and meeting their own learning needs. Such a system, if properly implemented, would have a greatly beneficial impact on continuous quality improvement for the profession in general.

The bystander effect in experimental systems and compatibility with radon-induced lung cancer in humans

Bystander effects following exposure to alpha-particles have been observed in C3H 10T1/2 cells and in other experimental systems, and imply that linearly extrapolating low-dose risks from high-dose data might materially underestimate risk. The ratio of lung cancer risk among persons exposed to low and high doses of radon daughters is 2.4-4.0, with an upper 95% confidence limit (CL) of about 14. Assuming that the bystander effect observed in the C3H 10T 1/2 data applies to human lung cells in vivo, the epidemiological data imply that the number of neighbouring cells that can contribute to the bystander effect is between 0 and 1, with an upper 95% CL of about 7. As a consequence, the bystander effect observed in the C3H 10T1/2 system probably does not play a large part in the process of radon-induced lung carcinogenesis in humans. Other experimental data relating to the bystander effect after alpha-particle exposure are surveyed; some of these data are more compatible with the epidemiological data.

Radiation litigation and the nuclear industry--the experience in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, the Nuclear Installations Act 1965 places a "strict" statutory duty on the operators of nuclear facilities to ensure that any exposure to radiation resulting from operations does not cause injury or damage. A claimant does not have to prove fault to receive compensation under the Act, only causation. The 1965 Act has been fundamental in shaping litigation involving the nuclear industry in the UK. Civil law cases brought under the Act will be heard before a single judge (with no jury or technical assessor) who must present his or her decision in a reasoned judgment. This process leads to a considerable volume of expert evidence being presented to the court and extensive cross-examination of witnesses. The expense and uncertain outcome of cases involving claims by nuclear workers that occupational exposure to radiation had caused the development of cancer has led to employers and trade unions setting up the voluntary Compensation Scheme for Radiation-linked Diseases as an alternative to litigation. This Scheme has worked well and is held up as a model of alternative dispute resolution. However, a few cases concerning personal injury or damage to property have come before the courts when the defendant nuclear operator considered that the claims were technically unjustified and where settlement was not a policy option. As anticipated, these cases were lengthy, complex, and expensive. The radiation doses assessed to have been received by the individuals who were the subject of claims, whether workers or members of the public, have been crucial to the outcome. The technical expertise of health physicists and allied specialists has been vital in establishing defensible estimates of dose, and this contribution can be expected to remain of high importance in radiation litigation in the UK.

The bystander effect in C3H 10T cells and radon-induced lung cancer

Little, M. P. and Wakeford, R. The Bystander Effect in C3H 10T(1/2) Cells and Radon-Induced Lung Cancer. Radiat. Res. 156, 695-699 (2001).Bystander effects, whereby cells that are not directly exposed to radiation exhibit adverse biological effects, have been observed in a number of experimental systems, including C3H 10T(1/2) cells exposed to alpha-particle radiation. The bystander effect implies that risks from exposure to low doses of radiation obtained by linear extrapolation from data for high-dose exposures might be substantial underestimates. The best estimate of the ratio of the lung cancer risk among persons exposed to low (residential) doses of radon daughters to that among persons (underground miners) exposed to high doses of radon daughters is in the range of 2.4-4.0, with an upper 95% confidence limit of about 14. Assuming that the bystander effect observed in the in vitro C3H 10T(1/2) cell system applies to human lung cells in vivo, these epidemiological data imply that the central estimate of the number of neighboring cells that can contribute to the bystander effect is between 0 and 1, with an upper 95% confidence limit of about 7. As a consequence, the bystander effect observed in the experimental C3H 10T(1/2) cell system probably does not play a large part in the process of radon-induced lung carcinogenesis in humans.

Design and synthesis of thrombin inhibitors: analogues of MD-805 with reduced stereogenicity and improved potency

Mitsubishi's MD-805, a potent and selective inhibitor of thrombin which contains four stereogenic centers, has been the starting point for an optimization program. A systematic synthetic study resulted in thrombin inhibitors achiral at P2 and P3 but with a 10-fold increase in potency over the original lead. A number of 4-substituted piperidines were synthesized and examined as replacements for 2-carboxy-4-methylpiperidine at P2; 4-fluoroethylpiperidine (FEP) among others provided inhibitors (e.g. 45g) of increased potency. An enantioselective route was developed to 3(R)-methyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydroquinolinesulfonyl chloride. Inhibitors containing this enantiomerically pure P3 (42d) had similar potency to the racemic material and provided support, with modeling studies, for the preparation of the gem 3,3-disubstituted compounds. A series of inhibitors containing the novel 3, 3-dimethyl-1,2,3,4-tetrahydroquinolinesulfonyl (DMTHQS) P3 (Table 5) were synthesized and showed a similar activity profile as the monomethyl series. The combination of P3-DMTHQS, P2-FEP, and P1-arginine (45g) had a K(i) of 6 nM (MD-805 K(i) = 85 nM). In animal models of both venous and arterial thrombosis, one inhibitor (42e) was shown to produce a dose-dependent inhibition of thrombus formation that in some situations was superior to that of MD-805.

A review of probability of causation and its use in a compensation scheme for nuclear industry workers in the United Kingdom

The assumption that any additional exposure to ionizing radiation leads to an increase in the risk of stochastic health effects implies that some cases of these effects will be caused by exposure incurred occupationally. The main health effect expected to arise in the exposed individuals is cancer. Such radiation-induced cancers cannot be distinguished from the far larger number of background cancers, and, therefore, causation must be assessed statistically. The probability of causation methodology has been developed to ascertain the likelihood that a particular cancer may be attributed to a particular prior exposure to radiation. Given the pertinent details of an individual case, a probability of causation value is calculated from the appropriate relative risk obtained from radiation risk models derived from the epidemiological study of exposed populations, although there are many uncertainties inherent in a particular probability of causation calculation. In the United Kingdom, the Compensation Scheme for Radiation-linked Diseases has been created to determine whether those individuals occupationally exposed to radiation in the nuclear industry who have subsequently developed a malignant disease should be compensated. The Scheme is a voluntary arrangement based upon the probability of causation methodology, which incorporates various procedures agreed by employer and employee representatives and their advisers. In a pragmatic approach to compensation, the uncertainties of a specific probability of causation calculation are accommodated through generosity factors which favor the claimant and encourage the use of the Scheme. The Scheme, which was introduced in 1982 and modified in 1987 and 1991 in the light of operational experience and revised risk estimates, has provided a successful alternative to litigation from the point of view of both employer and employee.