Dose to red bone marrow of infants, children and adults from radiation of natural origin

A Study on Geographic Correlation between Indoor Radon Exposure and Leukemia Incidence in Canada

ABSTRACT

In Canada, leukemia is diagnosed at a rate of 15 cases per 100,000 persons and accounts for about 3% of all new primary cancers. In this study, geographical correlation between residential radon exposure and leukemia incidence was investigated at a provincial level with more accurate long-term radon measurement data in 21,330 homes and 10-y (2000-2009) age standardized incidence rates per 100,000 population for various subtypes of leukemia. The analyses showed that the incidence rate of non-Hodgkin lymphoma is statistically significantly correlated with average indoor radon (222Rn) concentration for Canadian females (p = 0.01210) but not for males. At a provincial level, the association between average indoor radon level and chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence rate is statistically significant (p = 0.0167), and the correlation is somewhat stronger for females (p = 0.0043). No correlation was found between indoor radon exposure and any other subtypes of leukemia evaluated in this study.

Residential radon exposure and leukemia: A meta-analysis and dose-response meta-analyses for ecological, case-control, and cohort studies

INTRODUCTION

In this study, the authors conducted a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis (including a dose-response meta-analysis) for a possible causal association between residential radon exposure and leukemia. All 3 types of study design, including ecological, case-control, and cohort studies, were included in this study. In particular, different measurement units of radon exposure among studies were dealt with and analyzed thoroughly.

METHODS

A medical librarian searched MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library (from January 01, 1970 to November 05, 2020). For ecological studies, a conventional meta-analysis and subgroup analyses with meta-ANOVA analyses were conducted. For case-control and cohort studies, a two-stage dose-response meta-analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 8 ecological, 9 case-control, and 15 ecological-cohort studies were analyzed. For ecological studies, the pooled correlation coefficient was 0.48 (95% CI 0.41-0.54). In the meta-analysis of variance (ANOVA) analyses, the age group (childhood vs. adult) showed a statistically significant result (Q = 7.93 and p = 0.019) with the pooled correlation coefficient for childhood, adult, and all age group of 0.67 (95% CI 0.53-0.77), 0.46 (95% CI 0.05-0.74), and 0.44 (95% CI 0.36-0.51), respectively. For case-control studies, the dose-response meta-analysis showed the pooled OR increase of 1.0308 (95% CI 1.0050-1.0573) for each 100 Bq/m³ increase of radon dose. The pooled OR increase was 1.0361 (95% CI 1.0014-1.0720) for each 100 Bq/m³ increase of radon dose for lymphoid leukemia subgroup and 1.0309 (95% CI 1.0050-1.0575) for each 100 Bq/m³ increase of radon dose for childhood leukemia subgroup. Because of the inclusion of ecological studies with larger exposure assessment units, the pooled RR from ecological-cohort studies should be interpreted conservatively (a tendency towards a higher risk estimate). The overall pooled RR increase for each 100 Bq/m³ increase of radon dose was 1.1221 (95% CI 1.0184-1.2363). The pooled RR increase was 1.2257 (95% CI 1.0034-1.4972) for each 100 Bq/m³ increase of radon dose for the myeloid leukemia subgroup and 1.2503 (95% CI 1.0233-1.5276) for each 100 Bq/m³ increase of radon dose for adult leukemia subgroup.

DISCUSSION

A number of epidemiologic concepts, including the issue of sample size justification, the possibility of differential participation selection bias for case-control studies, the possibility of random and systematic errors in radon measurement, ecological fallacy for ecological studies, were discussed. The effect of age group, socioeconomic status, and gamma radiation exposure was also discussed. Future more accurate and conclusive large-scale case-control and cohort studies are needed.

Lung damage by thoron progenies versus possible damage redemption by lung stem cells: a perspective

PURPOSE

Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionizing radiation. About 52% of the total dose received from the high natural background radiations (HNBR) areas are due to inhalation dose from radon (²²²Rn)/thoron (²²⁰Rn) and their progenies. Hence, we reviewed the biological effects of ²²²Rn/²²⁰Rn and their progenies on lung tissue, and the possible role of lung stem cells in salvaging the damage caused by ²²²Rn/²²⁰Rn and their progenies.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

We have extensively reviewed articles among several hits obtained in PubMed, Scopus, and Elsevier databases with keywords 'Radon/Thoron' OR Thoron progeny/Radon progeny OR 'Thoron/Radon inhalation and lungs', and proceed for further analysis. Also, databases related to oxidative damage to lung stem cells by radiation and the repair mechanisms involved by the lung stem cells were also included.

RESULTS

Based on the existing epidemiological data on radon in residential buildings, we found that evidence exists on the association of radon induced lung carcinogenesis, but the data regarding the role of thoron induced lung damage is very limited and inconclusive. We also found that limited information has been provided based on ecological designs, leading to poor documentation of health statistics, in particular, organ-specific cancer rates. Finally, we tried to elucidate the possible mechanisms of lung injury induced by thoron inhalation and the probable role of lung stem cell toward the redemption of such oxidative damages.

CONCLUSION

Existing epidemiological data on thoron inhalation and associated health outcomes are limited and inconclusive. Further, in vivo experiments, with respect to radon/thoron inhalation dose rate ranges corresponding to the HNBR areas will be helpful in understanding the cellular and molecular effects.

Challenging the concept of de novo acute myeloid leukemia: Environmental and occupational leukemogens hiding in our midst

Myeloid neoplasms like acute myeloid leukemia (AML) originate from genomic disruption, usually in a multi-step fashion. Hematopoietic stem/progenitor cell acquisition of abnormalities in vital cellular processes, when coupled with intrinsic factors such as germline predisposition or extrinsic factors such as the marrow microenvironment or environmental agents, can lead to requisite pre-leukemic clonal selection, expansion and evolution. Several of these entities have been invoked as "leukemogens." The known leukemogens are numerous and are found in the therapeutic, occupational and ambient environments, however they are often difficult to implicate for individual patients. Patients treated with particular chemotherapeutic agents or radiotherapy accept a calculated risk of therapy-related AML. Occupational exposures to benzene, dioxins, formaldehyde, electromagnetic and particle radiation have been associated with an increased risk of AML. Although regulatory agencies have established acceptable exposure limits in the workplace, accidental exposures and even ambient exposures to leukemogens are possible. It is plausible that inescapable exposure to non-anthropogenic ambient leukemogens may be responsible for many cases of non-inherited de novo AML. In this review, we discuss the current understanding of leukemogens as they relate to AML, assess to what extent the term "de novo" leukemia is meaningful, and describe the potential to identify and characterize new leukemogens.

Strengths and Weaknesses of Dosimetry Used in Studies of Low-Dose Radiation Exposure and Cancer

BACKGROUND

A monograph systematically evaluating recent evidence on the dose-response relationship between low-dose ionizing radiation exposure and cancer risk required a critical appraisal of dosimetry methods in 26 potentially informative studies.

METHODS

The relevant literature included studies published in 2006-2017. Studies comprised case-control and cohort designs examining populations predominantly exposed to sparsely ionizing radiation, mostly from external sources, resulting in average doses of no more than 100 mGy. At least two dosimetrists reviewed each study and appraised the strengths and weaknesses of the dosimetry systems used, including assessment of sources and effects of dose estimation error. An overarching concern was whether dose error might cause the spurious appearance of a dose-response where none was present.

RESULTS

The review included 8 environmental, 4 medical, and 14 occupational studies that varied in properties relative to evaluation criteria. Treatment of dose estimation error also varied among studies, although few conducted a comprehensive evaluation. Six studies appeared to have known or suspected biases in dose estimates. The potential for these biases to cause a spurious dose-response association was constrained to three case-control studies that relied extensively on information gathered in interviews conducted after case ascertainment.

CONCLUSIONS

The potential for spurious dose-response associations from dose information appeared limited to case-control studies vulnerable to recall errors that may be differential by case status. Otherwise, risk estimates appeared reasonably free of a substantial bias from dose estimation error. Future studies would benefit from a comprehensive evaluation of dose estimation errors, including methods accounting for their potential effects on dose-response associations.

Epidemiological studies of natural sources of radiation and childhood cancer: current challenges and future perspectives

The empirical estimation of cancer risks in children associated with low-dose ionising radiation (<100 mSv) remains a challenge. The main reason is that the required combination of large sample sizes with accurate and comprehensive exposure assessment is difficult to achieve. An international scientific workshop, 'Childhood cancer and background radiation', organised by the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine of the University of Bern, brought together researchers in this field to evaluate how epidemiological studies of background radiation and childhood cancer can best improve our understanding of the effects of low-dose ionising radiation. This review summarises and evaluates the findings of these studies with regard to their methodological differences, identifies key limitations and challenges, and proposes ways to move forward. Large childhood cancer registries, such as those in Great Britain, France and Germany, now permit the conducting of studies that should have sufficient statistical power to detect the effects predicted by standard risk models. Nevertheless, larger studies or pooled studies will be needed to investigate disease subgroups. The main challenge is to accurately assess children's individual exposure to radiation from natural sources and from other sources, as well as potentially confounding non-radiation exposures, in such large study populations. For this, the study groups should learn from each other to improve exposure estimation and develop new ways to validate exposure models with personal dosimetry.

DOMESTIC RADON EXPOSURE AND CHILDHOOD LEUKAEMIA AND LYMPHOMA: A POPULATION-BASED STUDY IN CANADA

In this paper, we revisit the possibility, first raised using a data set collected in the 1970s, that there is a link between average radon concentrations and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and lymphoma in Canada. Following the launch of the National Radon Program in 2007, Health Canada completed a long-term radon survey in 33 census metropolitan areas (CMAs), which covers about 70% of the Canadian population. We used this data, together with leukaemia and lymphoma incidence rates among children (0-14 years of age) in the past decade (2006-15), and tried to link the city-level average radon concentrations to the leukaemia and lymphoma incidence rates in 33 major Canadian cities. Analyses were conducted for six subtypes (ALL, AML, CMD, HL, NHL and BL) of leukaemia and lymphoma. Estimated doses to red bone marrow from domestic radon exposure were low and we did not find any association between radon exposure at home and the increased risk for developing leukaemia among children under 15 years of age living in the CMAs. The results indicate a slight positive association for AML among 1-4 year males in CMAs of Peer Group C and NHL among 5-9 year females in CMAs of Peer Group A; however, these should be interpreted with caution owing to the crude exposure assessment and possibilities of other confounding factors.

Ionising radiation and childhood leukaemia revisited

Increased incidences of childhood acute leukaemia were noted among survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In Western societies, Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia has a distinct epidemiology peaking at 3 years old. Exposure to ionising radiation is an established hazard but it is difficult to gauge the precise risk of less than 100 mSv. Since 1983 significant leukaemia incidences have been reported among families residing near nuclear installations. The target cells (naïve neonatal lymphocytes) get exposed to multiple xenobiotic challenges and undergo extraordinary proliferation and physiological somatic genetic change. Population movements and ionising radiation are considered taking account of updated understanding of radiation biology, cancer cytogenetics and immunological diversity. Double Strand Breaks in DNA arise through metabolic generation of Reactive Oxygen Species, and nearly always are repaired; but mis-repairs can be oncogenic. Recombinant Activating Gene enzymes in rapidly dividing perinatal pre-B lymphocytes being primed for antibody diversity are targeted to Signal Sequences in the Immunoglobulin genes. off target pseudo-sequences may allow RAG enzymes to create autosomal DSBs which, when mis-repaired, become translocated oncogenes. Immunogens acting by chance at crucial stages may facilitate this. In such circumstances, oncogenic DSBs from ionising radiation are less likely to be significant.

Effects of incomplete residential histories on studies of environmental exposure with application to childhood leukaemia and background radiation

When evaluating environmental exposures, residential exposures are often most relevant. In most countries, it is impossible to establish full residential histories. In recent publications, childhood leukaemia and background radiation have been studied with and without full residential histories. This paper investigates the consequences of lacking such full data. Data from a nationwide Finnish Case-Control study of Childhood Leukaemia and gamma rays were analysed. This included 1093 children diagnosed with leukaemia in Finland in 1990-2011. Each case was matched by gender and year of birth to three controls. Full residential histories were available. The dose estimates were based on outdoor background radiation measurements. The indoor dose rates were obtained with a dwelling type specific conversion coefficient and the individual time-weighted mean red bone marrow dose rates were calculated using age-specific indoor occupancy and the age and gender of the child. Radiation from Chernobyl fallout was included and a 2-year latency period assumed. The median separation between successive dwellings was 3.4 km and median difference in red bone marrow dose 2.9 nSv/h. The Pearson correlation between the indoor red bone marrow dose rates of successive dwellings was 0.62 (95% CI 0.60, 0.64). The odds ratio for a 10 nSv/h increase in dose rate with full residential histories was 1.01 (95% CI 0.97, 1.05). Similar odds ratios were calculated with dose rates based on only the first dwelling (1.02, 95% CI 0.99, 1.05) and only the last dwelling (1.00, 95% CI 0.98, 1.03) and for subjects who had lived only in a single dwelling (1.05, 95% CI 0.98, 1.10). Knowledge of full residential histories would always be the option of choice. However, due to the strong correlation between exposure estimates in successive dwellings and the uncertainty about the most relevant exposure period, estimation of overall exposure level from a single address is also informative. Error in dose estimation is likely to cause some degree of classical measurement error resulting in bias towards the null.

Childhood cancer research in oxford III: The work of CCRG on ionising radiation

BACKGROUND

High doses of ionising radiation are a known cause of childhood cancer and great public and professional interest attaches to possible links between childhood cancer and lower doses, particularly of man-made radiation. This paper describes work done by the Childhood Cancer Research Group (CCRG) on this topic METHODS: Most UK investigations have made use of the National Registry of Childhood Tumours and associated controls. Epidemiological investigations have included national incidence and mortality analyses, geographical investigations, record linkage and case-control studies. Dosimetric studies use biokinetic and dosimetric modelling.

RESULTS

This paper reviews the work of the CCRG on the association between exposure to ionising radiation and childhood cancer, 1975-2014.

CONCLUSION

The work of CCRG has been influential in developing understanding of the causes of 'clusters' of childhood cancer and the risks arising from exposure to ionising radiation both natural and man-made. Some clusters around nuclear installations have certainly been observed, but ionising radiation does not seem to be a plausible cause. The group's work has also been instrumental in discounting the hypothesis that paternal preconception irradiation was a cause of childhood cancers and has demonstrated an increased leukaemia risk for children exposed to higher levels of natural gamma-ray radiation.

Residential Exposure to Natural Background Radiation and Risk of Childhood Acute Leukemia in France, 1990-2009

BACKGROUND

Exposures to high-dose ionizing radiation and high-dose rate ionizing radiation are established risk factors for childhood acute leukemia (AL). The risk of AL following exposure to lower doses due to natural background radiation (NBR) has yet to be conclusively determined.

METHODS

AL cases diagnosed over 1990-2009 (9,056 cases) were identified and their municipality of residence at diagnosis collected by the National Registry of Childhood Cancers. The Geocap study, which included the 2,763 cases in 2002-2007 and 30,000 population controls, was used for complementary analyses. NBR exposures were modeled on a fine scale (36,326 municipalities) based on measurement campaigns and geological data. The power to detect an association between AL and dose to the red bone marrow (RBM) fitting UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation) predictions was 92%, 45% and 99% for exposure to natural gamma radiation, radon and total radiation, respectively.

RESULTS

AL risk, irrespective of subtype and age group, was not associated with the exposure of municipalities to radon or gamma radiation in terms of yearly exposure at age reached, cumulative exposure or RBM dose. There was no confounding effect of census-based socio-demographic indicators, or environmental factors (road traffic, high voltage power lines, vicinity of nuclear plants) related to AL in the Geocap study.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings do not support the hypothesis that residential exposure to NBR increases the risk of AL, despite the large size of the study, fine scale exposure estimates and wide range of exposures over France. However, our results at the time of diagnosis do not rule out a slight association with gamma radiation at the time of birth, which would be more in line with the recent findings in the UK and Switzerland.

Background ionizing radiation and the risk of childhood cancer: a census-based nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to medium or high doses of ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer in children. The extent to which low-dose radiation from natural sources contributes to the risk of childhood cancer remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

In a nationwide census-based cohort study, we investigated whether the incidence of childhood cancer was associated with background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays.

METHODS

Children < 16 years of age in the Swiss National Censuses in 1990 and 2000 were included. The follow-up period lasted until 2008, and incident cancer cases were identified from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. A radiation model was used to predict dose rates from terrestrial and cosmic radiation at locations of residence. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between cancer risk and dose rates and cumulative dose since birth.

RESULTS

Among 2,093,660 children included at census, 1,782 incident cases of cancer were identified including 530 with leukemia, 328 with lymphoma, and 423 with a tumor of the central nervous system (CNS). Hazard ratios for each millisievert increase in cumulative dose of external radiation were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) for any cancer, 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.08) for leukemia, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.05) for lymphoma, and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.08) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for a range of potential confounders had little effect on the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that background radiation may contribute to the risk of cancer in children, including leukemia and CNS tumors.

The risk of leukaemia in young children from exposure to tritium and carbon-14 in the discharges of German nuclear power stations and in the fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing

Towards the end of 2007, the results were published from a case-control study (the "KiKK Study") of cancer in young children, diagnosed <5 years of age during 1980-2003 while resident near nuclear power stations in western Germany. The study found a tendency for cases of leukaemia to live closer to the nearest nuclear power station than their matched controls, producing an odds ratio that was raised to a statistically significant extent for residence within 5 km of a nuclear power station. The findings of the study received much publicity, but a detailed radiological risk assessment demonstrated that the radiation doses received by young children from discharges of radioactive material from the nuclear reactors were much lower than those received from natural background radiation and far too small to be responsible for the statistical association reported in the KiKK Study. This has led to speculation that conventional radiological risk assessments have grossly underestimated the risk of leukaemia in young children posed by exposure to man-made radionuclides, and particular attention has been drawn to the possible role of tritium and carbon-14 discharges in this supposedly severe underestimation of risk. Both (3)H and (14)C are generated naturally in the upper atmosphere, and substantial increases in these radionuclides in the environment occurred as a result of their production by atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons during the late 1950s and early 1960s. If the leukaemogenic effect of these radionuclides has been seriously underestimated to the degree necessary to explain the KiKK Study findings, then a pronounced increase in the worldwide incidence of leukaemia among young children should have followed the notably elevated exposure to (3)H and (14)C from nuclear weapons testing fallout. To investigate this hypothesis, the time series of incidence rates of leukaemia among young children <5 years of age at diagnosis has been examined from ten cancer registries from three continents and both hemispheres, which include registration data from the early 1960s or before. No evidence of a markedly increased risk of leukaemia in young children following the peak of above-ground nuclear weapons testing, or that incidence rates are related to level of exposure to fallout, is apparent from these registration rates, providing strong grounds for discounting the idea that the risk of leukaemia in young children from (3)H or (14)C (or any other radionuclide present in both nuclear weapons testing fallout and discharges from nuclear installations) has been grossly underestimated and that such exposure can account for the findings of the KiKK Study.

Potential impacts of radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays on childhood leukemia in France: a quantitative risk assessment

Previous epidemiological studies and quantitative risk assessments (QRA) have suggested that natural background radiation may be a cause of childhood leukemia. The present work uses a QRA approach to predict the excess risk of childhood leukemia in France related to three components of natural radiation: radon, cosmic rays and terrestrial gamma rays, using excess relative and absolute risk models proposed by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Both models were developed from the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Previous risk assessments were extended by considering uncertainties in radiation-related leukemia risk model parameters as part of this process, within a Bayesian framework. Estimated red bone marrow doses cumulated during childhood by the average French child due to radon, terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays are 4.4, 7.5 and 4.3 mSv, respectively. The excess fractions of cases (expressed as percentages) associated with these sources of natural radiation are 20 % [95 % credible interval (CI) 0-68 %] and 4 % (95 % CI 0-11 %) under the excess relative and excess absolute risk models, respectively. The large CIs, as well as the different point estimates obtained under these two models, highlight the uncertainties in predictions of radiation-related childhood leukemia risks. These results are only valid provided that models developed from the LSS can be transferred to the population of French children and to chronic natural radiation exposures, and must be considered in view of the currently limited knowledge concerning other potential risk factors for childhood leukemia. Last, they emphasize the need for further epidemiological investigations of the effects of natural radiation on childhood leukemia to reduce uncertainties and help refine radiation protection standards.

Environmental radon exposure and childhood leukemia

Despite the fact that animal and human epidemiological studies confirmed a link between radon exposure in homes and increased risk of lung cancer in general population, other types of cancers induced by radon, such as leukemia, have not been consistently demonstrated. The aim of this review was to summarize data published thus far from ecological and case-control studies in exposed populations, taking into account radon dose estimation and evidence of radon-induced genotoxicity, in an effort to clarify the correlation between home radon exposure and incidence of childhood leukemia. Among 12 ecological studies, 11 reported a positive association between radon levels and elevated frequency of childhood leukemia, with 8 being significant. In conjunction with ecological studies, several case-control studies on indoor radon exposure and childhood leukemia were examined, and most investigations indicated a weak association with only a few showing significance. A major source of uncertainty in radon risk assessment is radon dose estimate. Methods for radon exposure measurement in homes of children are one of the factors that affect the risk estimates in a case-control study. The effects of radon-induced genetic damage were studied both in vitro and in vivo using genetic endpoints including chromosomal aberration (CA), micronuclei (MN) formation, gene mutation, and deletions and insertions. By applying a meta-analysis, an increased risk of childhood leukemia induced by indoor radon exposure was noted for overall leukemia and for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Data thus indicated an association between environmental radon exposure and elevated leukemia incidence, but more evidence is required in both human investigations and animal mechanistic research before this assumption may be confirmed with certainty.

Doses to the red bone marrow of young people and adults from radiation of natural origin

Natural radiation sources comprise cosmic rays, terrestrial gamma rays, radionuclides in food and inhaled isotopes of radon with their decay products. These deliver doses to all organs and tissues including red bone marrow (RBM), the tissue in which leukaemia is thought to originate. In this paper we calculate the age-dependent annual RBM doses from natural radiation sources to young people and to adults at average levels of exposure in the UK. The contributions to dose are generally less complex than in the case of doses to foetuses and young children where it is necessary to take into account transfer of radionuclides across the placenta, intakes in mother's milk and changes in gut uptake in young infants. However, there is high uptake of alkaline earths and of similar elements in the developing skeleton and this significantly affects the doses from radioisotopes of these elements, not just in the teens and twenties but through into the fifth decade of life. The total equivalent dose to the RBM from all natural sources of radiation at age 15 years is calculated to be about 1200  µSv a year at average UK levels, falling to rather less than 1100  µSv per year in later life; the gentle fall from the late teens onwards reflects the diminishing effect of the high uptakes of radioisotopes of the alkaline earths and of lead in this period. About 60% of the equivalent dose is contributed by the low linear energy transfer (LET) component. Radionuclides in food make the largest contribution to equivalent doses to RBM and much the largest contribution to the absorbed dose from high LET radiation (mainly alpha particles).

Numbers and proportions of leukemias in young people and adults induced by radiation of natural origin

Natural sources contribute a large fraction of the radiation exposure of the general public. Under the linear no-threshold hypothesis risk decreases in proportion to decreasing dose without a threshold. We use recent estimates of doses to the red bone marrow to calculate the number and proportion of cases of leukemia in England induced by natural radiation. We calculate that about 5% of cases of leukemia, excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, up to the age of 80 years are induced by this background radiation. In young people up to the age of 25 years the attributable fraction is about 15%, substantially lower than a previous estimate.

The statistical power of epidemiological studies analyzing the relationship between exposure to ionizing radiation and cancer, with special reference to childhood leukemia and natural background radiation

The etiology of childhood leukemia remains generally unknown, although risk models based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors imply that the dose accumulated from protracted exposure to low-level natural background ionizing radiation materially raises the risk of leukemia in children. In this paper a novel Monte Carlo score-test methodology is used to assess the statistical power of cohort, ecological and case-control study designs, using the linear low-dose part of the BEIR V model derived from the Japanese data. With 10 (or 20) years of follow-up of childhood leukemias in Great Britain, giving about 4600 (or 9200) cases, under an individual-based cohort design there is 67.9% (or 90.9%) chance of detecting an excess (at 5% significance level, one-sided test); little difference is made by extreme heterogeneity in risk. For an ecological design these figures reduce to 57.9% (or 83.2%). Case-control studies with five controls per case achieve much of the power of a cohort design, 61.1% (or 86.0%). However, participation bias may seriously affect studies that require individual consent, and area-based studies are subject to severe interpretational problems. For this reason register-based studies, in particular those that make use of predicted doses that avoid the need for interviews, have considerable advantages. We argue that previous studies have been underpowered (all have power <80%), and some are also subject to unquantifiable biases and confounding. Sufficiently large studies should be capable of detecting the predicted risk attributable to natural background radiation.

Updated estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain that may be caused by natural background ionising radiation

The aetiology of childhood leukaemia remains generally unknown, although exposure to moderate and high levels of ionising radiation, such as was experienced during the atomic bombings of Japan or from radiotherapy, is an established cause. Risk models based primarily upon studies of the Japanese A-bomb survivors imply that low-level exposure to ionising radiation, including to ubiquitous natural background radiation, also raises the risk of childhood leukaemia. In a recent paper (Wakeford et al 2009 Leukaemia 23 770-6) we estimated the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain attributable to natural background radiation to be about 20%. In this paper we employ the two sets of published leukaemia risk models used previously, but use recently published revised estimates of natural background radiation doses received by the red bone marrow of British children to update the previous results. Using the newer dosimetry we calculate that the best estimate of the proportion of cases of childhood leukaemia in Great Britain predicted to be attributable to this source of exposure is 15-20%, although the uncertainty associated with certain stages in the calculation (e.g. the nature of the transfer of risk between populations and the pertinent dose received from naturally occurring alpha-particle-emitting radionuclides) is significant. The slightly lower attributable proportions compared with those previously derived by Wakeford et al (Leukaemia 2009 23 770-6) are largely due to the lower doses (and in particular lower high LET doses) for the first year of life.