Effects of extreme obliquity variations on the habitability of exoplanets

Eta-Earth Revisited II: Deriving a Maximum Number of Earth-Like Habitats in the Galactic Disk

In Lammer et al. (2024), we defined Earth-like habitats (EHs) as rocky exoplanets within the habitable zone of complex life (HZCL) on which Earth-like N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with minor amounts of CO2 can exist, and derived a formulation for estimating the maximum number of EHs in the galaxy given realistic probabilistic requirements that have to be met for an EH to evolve. In this study, we apply this formulation to the galactic disk by considering only requirements that are already scientifically quantifiable. By implementing literature models for star formation rate, initial mass function, and the mass distribution of the Milky Way, we calculate the spatial distribution of disk stars as functions of stellar mass and birth age. For the stellar part of our formulation, we apply existing models for the galactic habitable zone and evaluate the thermal stability of nitrogen-dominated atmospheres with different CO2 mixing ratios inside the HZCL by implementing the newest stellar evolution and upper atmosphere models. For the planetary part, we include the frequency of rocky exoplanets, the availability of surface water and subaerial land, and the potential requirement of hosting a large moon by evaluating their importance and implementing these criteria from minima to maxima values as found in the scientific literature. We also discuss further factors that are not yet scientifically quantifiable but may be requirements for EHs to evolve. Based on such an approach, we find that EHs are relatively rare by obtaining plausible maximum numbers of 2.5 - 2.4 + 71.6 × 10 5 and 0.6 - 0.59 + 27.1 × 10 5 planets that can potentially host N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with maximum CO2 mixing ratios of 10% and 1%, respectively, implying that, on average, a minimum of ∼ 10 3 - 10 6 rocky exoplanets in the HZCL are needed for 1 EH to evolve. The actual number of EHs, however, may be substantially lower than our maximum ranges since several requirements with unknown occurrence rates are not included in our model (e.g., the origin of life, working carbon-silicate and nitrogen cycles); this also implies extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) to be significantly rarer still. Our results illustrate that not every star can host EHs nor can each rocky exoplanet within the HZCL evolve such that it might be able to host complex animal-like life or even ETIs. The Copernican Principle of Mediocrity therefore cannot be applied to infer that such life will be common in the galaxy.

Habitability Models for Astrobiology

Habitability has been generally defined as the capability of an environment to support life. Ecologists have been using Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) for more than four decades to study the habitability of Earth from local to global scales. Astrobiologists have been proposing different habitability models for some time, with little integration and consistency among them, being different in function to those used by ecologists. Habitability models are not only used to determine whether environments are habitable, but they also are used to characterize what key factors are responsible for the gradual transition from low to high habitability states. Here we review and compare some of the different models used by ecologists and astrobiologists and suggest how they could be integrated into new habitability standards. Such standards will help improve the comparison and characterization of potentially habitable environments, prioritize target selections, and study correlations between habitability and biosignatures. Habitability models are the foundation of planetary habitability science, and the synergy between ecologists and astrobiologists is necessary to expand our understanding of the habitability of Earth, the Solar System, and extrasolar planets.

In Search for a Planet Better than Earth: Top Contenders for a Superhabitable World

The fact that Earth is teeming with life makes it appear odd to ask whether there could be other planets in our galaxy that may be even more suitable for life. Neglecting this possible class of "superhabitable" planets, however, could be considered anthropocentric and geocentric biases. Most important from the perspective of an observer searching for extrasolar life is that such a search might be executed most effectively with a focus on superhabitable planets instead of Earth-like planets. We argue that there could be regions of astrophysical parameter space of star-planet systems that could allow for planets to be even better for life than our Earth. We aim to identify those parameters and their optimal ranges, some of which are astrophysically motivated, whereas others are based on the varying habitability of the natural history of our planet. Some of these conditions are far from being observationally testable on planets outside the solar system. Still, we can distill a short list of 24 top contenders among the >4000 exoplanets known today that could be candidates for a superhabitable planet. In fact, we argue that, with regard to the search for extrasolar life, potentially superhabitable planets may deserve higher priority for follow-up observations than most Earth-like planets.

Obliquity Evolution of the Potentially Habitable Exoplanet Kepler-62f

Variations in the axial tilt, or obliquity, of terrestrial planets can affect their climates and therefore their habitability. Kepler-62f is a 1.4 R_⊕ planet orbiting within the habitable zone of its K2 dwarf host star. We perform N-body simulations that monitor the evolution of obliquity of Kepler-62f for 10-million-year timescales to explore the effects on model assumptions, such as the masses of the Kepler-62 planets and the possibility of outer bodies. Significant obliquity variation occurs when the rotational precession frequency overlaps with one or more of the secular orbital frequencies, but most variations are limited to ≲10°. Moderate variations (∼10-20°) can occur over a broader range of initial obliquities when the relative nodal longitude (ΔΩ) overlaps with the frequency and phase of a given secular mode. However, we find that adding outer gas giants on long-period orbits (∼1000 days) can produce large (∼60°) variations in obliquity if Kepler-62f has a very rapid (4 h) rotation period. The possibility of giant planets on long-period orbits impacts the climate and habitability of Kepler-62f through variations in the latitudinal surface flux, where large variations can occur on million year timescales.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: Observational Prospects

Exoplanet hunting efforts have revealed the prevalence of exotic worlds with diverse properties, including Earth-sized bodies, which has fueled our endeavor to search for life beyond the Solar System. Accumulating experiences in astrophysical, chemical, and climatological characterization of uninhabitable planets are paving the way to characterization of potentially habitable planets. In this paper, we review our possibilities and limitations in characterizing temperate terrestrial planets with future observational capabilities through the 2030s and beyond, as a basis of a broad range of discussions on how to advance "astrobiology" with exoplanets. We discuss the observability of not only the proposed biosignature candidates themselves but also of more general planetary properties that provide circumstantial evidence, since the evaluation of any biosignature candidate relies on its context. Characterization of temperate Earth-sized planets in the coming years will focus on those around nearby late-type stars. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and later 30-meter-class ground-based telescopes will empower their chemical investigations. Spectroscopic studies of potentially habitable planets around solar-type stars will likely require a designated spacecraft mission for direct imaging, leveraging technologies that are already being developed and tested as part of the Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission. Successful initial characterization of a few nearby targets will be an important touchstone toward a more detailed scrutiny and a larger survey that are envisioned beyond 2030. The broad outlook this paper presents may help develop new observational techniques to detect relevant features as well as frameworks to diagnose planets based on the observables. Key Words: Exoplanets-Biosignatures-Characterization-Planetary atmospheres-Planetary surfaces. Astrobiology 18, 739-778.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: A Framework for Their Assessment

Finding life on exoplanets from telescopic observations is an ultimate goal of exoplanet science. Life produces gases and other substances, such as pigments, which can have distinct spectral or photometric signatures. Whether or not life is found with future data must be expressed with probabilities, requiring a framework of biosignature assessment. We present a framework in which we advocate using biogeochemical "Exo-Earth System" models to simulate potential biosignatures in spectra or photometry. Given actual observations, simulations are used to find the Bayesian likelihoods of those data occurring for scenarios with and without life. The latter includes "false positives" wherein abiotic sources mimic biosignatures. Prior knowledge of factors influencing planetary inhabitation, including previous observations, is combined with the likelihoods to give the Bayesian posterior probability of life existing on a given exoplanet. Four components of observation and analysis are necessary. (1) Characterization of stellar (e.g., age and spectrum) and exoplanetary system properties, including "external" exoplanet parameters (e.g., mass and radius), to determine an exoplanet's suitability for life. (2) Characterization of "internal" exoplanet parameters (e.g., climate) to evaluate habitability. (3) Assessment of potential biosignatures within the environmental context (components 1-2), including corroborating evidence. (4) Exclusion of false positives. We propose that resulting posterior Bayesian probabilities of life's existence map to five confidence levels, ranging from "very likely" (90-100%) to "very unlikely" (<10%) inhabited. Key Words: Bayesian statistics-Biosignatures-Drake equation-Exoplanets-Habitability-Planetary science. Astrobiology 18, 709-738.

The Habitability of Proxima Centauri b: Environmental States and Observational Discriminants

Proxima Centauri b provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the evolution and nature of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Although Proxima Cen b orbits within its star's habitable zone, multiple plausible evolutionary paths could have generated different environments that may or may not be habitable. Here, we use 1-D coupled climate-photochemical models to generate self-consistent atmospheres for several evolutionary scenarios, including high-O2, high-CO2, and more Earth-like atmospheres, with both oxic and anoxic compositions. We show that these modeled environments can be habitable or uninhabitable at Proxima Cen b's position in the habitable zone. We use radiative transfer models to generate synthetic spectra and thermal phase curves for these simulated environments, and use instrument models to explore our ability to discriminate between possible planetary states. These results are applicable not only to Proxima Cen b but to other terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs. Thermal phase curves may provide the first constraint on the existence of an atmosphere. We find that James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations longward of 10 μm could characterize atmospheric heat transport and molecular composition. Detection of ocean glint is unlikely with JWST but may be within the reach of larger-aperture telescopes. Direct imaging spectra may detect O4 absorption, which is diagnostic of massive water loss and O2 retention, rather than a photosynthetic biosphere. Similarly, strong CO2 and CO bands at wavelengths shortward of 2.5 μm would indicate a CO2-dominated atmosphere. If the planet is habitable and volatile-rich, direct imaging will be the best means of detecting habitability. Earth-like planets with microbial biospheres may be identified by the presence of CH4-which has a longer atmospheric lifetime under Proxima Centauri's incident UV-and either photosynthetically produced O2 or a hydrocarbon haze layer. Key Words: Planetary habitability and biosignatures-Planetary atmospheres-Exoplanets-Spectroscopic biosignatures-Planetary science-Proxima Centauri b. Astrobiology 18, 133-189.

Obliquity Variability of a Potentially Habitable Early Venus

Venus currently rotates slowly, with its spin controlled by solid-body and atmospheric thermal tides. However, conditions may have been far different 4 billion years ago, when the Sun was fainter and most of the carbon within Venus could have been in solid form, implying a low-mass atmosphere. We investigate how the obliquity would have varied for a hypothetical rapidly rotating Early Venus. The obliquity variation structure of an ensemble of hypothetical Early Venuses is simpler than that Earth would have if it lacked its large moon (Lissauer et al., 2012 ), having just one primary chaotic regime at high prograde obliquities. We note an unexpected long-term variability of up to ±7° for retrograde Venuses. Low-obliquity Venuses show very low total obliquity variability over billion-year timescales-comparable to that of the real Moon-influenced Earth.

KEY WORDS

Planets and satellites-Venus. Astrobiology 16, 487-499.

The Effect of Orbital Configuration on the Possible Climates and Habitability of Kepler-62f

As lower-mass stars often host multiple rocky planets, gravitational interactions among planets can have significant effects on climate and habitability over long timescales. Here we explore a specific case, Kepler-62f (Borucki et al., 2013 ), a potentially habitable planet in a five-planet system with a K2V host star. N-body integrations reveal the stable range of initial eccentricities for Kepler-62f is 0.00 ≤ e ≤ 0.32, absent the effect of additional, undetected planets. We simulate the tidal evolution of Kepler-62f in this range and find that, for certain assumptions, the planet can be locked in a synchronous rotation state. Simulations using the 3-D Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Generic global climate model (GCM) indicate that the surface habitability of this planet is sensitive to orbital configuration. With 3 bar of CO2 in its atmosphere, we find that Kepler-62f would only be warm enough for surface liquid water at the upper limit of this eccentricity range, providing it has a high planetary obliquity (between 60° and 90°). A climate similar to that of modern-day Earth is possible for the entire range of stable eccentricities if atmospheric CO2 is increased to 5 bar levels. In a low-CO2 case (Earth-like levels), simulations with version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) GCM and LMD Generic GCM indicate that increases in planetary obliquity and orbital eccentricity coupled with an orbital configuration that places the summer solstice at or near pericenter permit regions of the planet with above-freezing surface temperatures. This may melt ice sheets formed during colder seasons. If Kepler-62f is synchronously rotating and has an ocean, CO2 levels above 3 bar would be required to distribute enough heat to the nightside of the planet to avoid atmospheric freeze-out and permit a large enough region of open water at the planet's substellar point to remain stable. Overall, we find multiple plausible combinations of orbital and atmospheric properties that permit surface liquid water on Kepler-62f.

KEY WORDS

Extrasolar planets-Habitability-Planetary environments. Astrobiology 16, 443-464.

Habitability: A Review

Habitability is a widely used word in the geoscience, planetary science, and astrobiology literature, but what does it mean? In this review on habitability, we define it as the ability of an environment to support the activity of at least one known organism. We adopt a binary definition of "habitability" and a "habitable environment." An environment either can or cannot sustain a given organism. However, environments such as entire planets might be capable of supporting more or less species diversity or biomass compared with that of Earth. A clarity in understanding habitability can be obtained by defining instantaneous habitability as the conditions at any given time in a given environment required to sustain the activity of at least one known organism, and continuous planetary habitability as the capacity of a planetary body to sustain habitable conditions on some areas of its surface or within its interior over geological timescales. We also distinguish between surface liquid water worlds (such as Earth) that can sustain liquid water on their surfaces and interior liquid water worlds, such as icy moons and terrestrial-type rocky planets with liquid water only in their interiors. This distinction is important since, while the former can potentially sustain habitable conditions for oxygenic photosynthesis that leads to the rise of atmospheric oxygen and potentially complex multicellularity and intelligence over geological timescales, the latter are unlikely to. Habitable environments do not need to contain life. Although the decoupling of habitability and the presence of life may be rare on Earth, it may be important for understanding the habitability of other planetary bodies.