Estimating Geriatric Mortality after Injury Using Age, Injury Severity, and Performance of a Transfusion: The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score

An introduction to clinical prediction models using logistic regression in acute care surgery research: Methodologic considerations and common pitfalls

ABSTRACT

Clinical prediction models can enhance timely clinical decision-making when appropriately developed and integrated within clinical workflows. A risk prediction model is typically a regression equation that uses patient risk factor data to estimate the probability of the presence of disease (diagnostic) or its future occurrence (prognostic). Risk prediction models are widely studied in the surgical literature and commonly developed using logistic regression. For a risk prediction model to be useful, it must balance statistical performance and clinical usefulness. This article provides a brief overview of the various methodologic issues to consider when developing or validating a risk prediction model and common pitfalls.

Short- and Long-Term Mortality in Severely Injured Older Trauma Patients: A Retrospective Analysis

Background/Objectives: Older trauma patients experience increased in-hospital mortality due to the physiological challenges associated with aging and injury severity. However, limited data exist on long-term mortality rates beyond hospital discharge, particularly among severely injured elderly trauma patients. Understanding these outcomes is essential for improving clinical management and rehabilitation strategies. The objective of this study was to evaluate cumulative mortality rates (in-hospital, 28-day, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year) in older trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16. Independent risk factors for 1-year mortality were also identified. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all trauma patients aged ≥ 65 years with ISS ≥ 16 admitted to the Emergency Department of our level 1 trauma center between January 2017 and December 2022. Demographic characteristics, injury patterns (Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores, ISS), and mortality rates were collected from electronic health records. Patients were stratified into two age groups: 65-80 years and >80 years. Mortality rates were compared with those in the corresponding age groups in the general Swiss population. Statistical analysis included Kaplan-Meier survival curves and logistic regression for identifying risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. Results: A total of 1189 older trauma patients with a mean ISS of 24.3 ± 7.9 were included. The most common injury was severe head trauma (AIS head ≥ 3: 70.6%), followed by chest trauma (AIS chest ≥ 3: 28.2%) and extremity injuries (AIS extremity ≥ 3: 17.4%). The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 10.3%. Mortality rates at 28 days, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years were 15.8%, 26.5%, 31.5%, and 36.3%, respectively. Age-stratified analysis showed significantly higher mortality rates in patients aged > 80 years compared to the 65- to 80-year group at all post-discharge time points (28-day: 22.6% vs. 11.9%, p < 0.001; 1-year: 39.9% vs. 18.8%, p < 0.001; 2-year: 46.5% vs. 22.8%, p < 0.001; 3-year: 56.4% vs. 24.9%, p < 0.001). Compared to the general Swiss population, we observed significantly higher mortality rates at all measured time points in elderly trauma patients, particularly in those aged over 80 years, with 1-year mortality rates of 39.9% vs. 10% in the general population and 3-year mortality rates of 56.4% vs. 30% in the general population. Independent risk factors for 1-year mortality included advanced age and severe head injury (AIS head ≥ 3, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Severely injured elderly trauma patients face high long-term mortality risks, with 1-year mortality rates reaching 26.5% overall and nearly 40% in patients aged > 80 years. These findings highlight the need for research on tailored, holistic management strategies, including comprehensive in-hospital care, specialized neurorehabilitation, and post-discharge follow-up programs to improve survival and functional recovery in this vulnerable population.

Palliative care in acute care surgery: research challenges and opportunities

Palliative care includes effective communication, relief of suffering and symptom management with an underlying goal of improving the quality of life for patients with serious illness and their families. Best practice palliative care is delivered in parallel with life-sustaining or life-prolonging care. Palliative care affirms life and regards death as a normal process, intends neither to hasten death nor to postpone death and includes but is not limited to end-of-life care. Palliative care encompasses both primary palliative care (which can and should be incorporated into the practice of acute care surgery) and specialty palliative care (consultation with a fellowship-trained palliative care provider). Acute care surgeons routinely care for individuals who may benefit from palliative care. Patients exposed to traumatic injury, emergency surgical conditions, major burns and/or critical surgical illness are more likely to be experiencing a serious illness than other hospitalized patients. Palliative care research is urgently needed in acute care surgery. At present, minimal high-quality research is available to guide selection of palliative care interventions. This narrative review summarizes the current state of research challenges and opportunities to address palliative care in acute care surgery. Palliative care research in acute care surgery can rely on either primary data collection or secondary and administrative data. Each approach has its advantages and limitations, which we will review in this article.

Predictive factors of mortality in patients with abdominal trauma

BACKGROUND

Traumatic injuries, particularly abdominal trauma, are a major cause of mortality worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate predictive factors for mortality and morbidity in abdominal trauma patients using simple, rapid, and accessible clinical and laboratory parameters, with a focus on developing scoring systems for emergency department decision-making.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a Level 1 Trauma Center between October 2022 and March 2024. Patients aged 18 and older with abdominal trauma or multi-trauma were included, while cases with incomplete records, known chronic diseases, or a recent trauma history were excluded. Data on demographics, vital signs, laboratory results, imaging findings, clinical scores, and outcomes were collected. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to identify independent mortality predictors and their cut-off values.

RESULTS

Out of 693 patients, the mortality rate was 3.6%. The most common mechanisms of trauma were road traffic accidents (59.3%) and falls (23.4%). Independent predictors of mortality included age ≥54 years, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤14, Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥24, and Shock Index ≥1.08. ROC analysis revealed that GCS had the highest predictive value for mortality (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.828), followed by ISS, age, and Shock Index. Elevated levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), lactate, and creatinine were associated with worse outcomes, aligning with findings in the literature.

CONCLUSION

Age, GCS, ISS, and Shock Index are strong predictors of mortality in abdominal trauma patients. Integrating these parameters into clinical decision-making can enhance risk stratification and improve patient management. Prospective multicenter studies and national trauma registries are necessary to refine trauma care and reduce mortality rates.

Enhancing geriatric trauma mortality prediction: Modifying and assessing the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score with net benefit and decision curve analysis

OBJECTIVE

Calibration and discrimination indicators alone are insufficient for evaluating the clinical usefulness of prediction models, as they do not account for the cost of misclassification errors. This study aimed to modify the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) and assess the clinical utility of the modified model using net benefit (NB) and decision curve analysis (DCA) for predicting in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) 2017 was used to identify geriatric trauma patients (≥ 65 years) treated at Level I trauma centers. The outcome of interest was in-hospital mortality. The GTOS was modified to include additional patient, injury, and treatment characteristics identified through machine learning methods, focusing on early risk stratification. Calibration and discrimination indicators, along with NB and DCA, were utilized for evaluation.

RESULTS

Of the 67,222 admitted geriatric trauma patients, 5.6% died in the hospital. The modified GTOS score included the following variables with associated weights: initial airway intervention (5), Glasgow Coma Scale ≤13 (5), packed red blood cell transfusion within 24 h (3), penetrating injury (2), age ≥ 75 years (2), preexisting comorbidity (1), and torso injury (1), with a total range from 0 to 19. The modified GTOS demonstrated a significantly higher area under the curve (0.92 vs. 0.84, p < 0.0001), lower misclassification error (4.9% vs. 5.2%), and lower Brier score (0.036 vs. 0.042) compared to the original GTOS. DCA showed that using the modified GTOS for predicting in-hospital mortality resulted in higher NB than treating all, treating none, and treating based on the original GTOS across a wide range of clinician preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified GTOS model exhibited superior predictive ability and clinical utility compared to the original GTOS. NB and DCA offer valuable complementary methods to calibration and discrimination indicators, comprehensively evaluating the clinical usefulness of prediction models and decision strategies.

Efficacy of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) in Predicting Mortality in Trauma Patients: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Trauma has a profound impact on mortality as well as short- and long-term health outcomes. For trauma patients to receive medical care in a timely manner, early identification and risk assessment are essential. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), which was created by combining age, the Injury Severity Score (ISS), and the requirement for packed red blood cell transfusion, has proven to be a valuable prognostic tool for elderly trauma patients, though its applicability to general trauma patients is still understudied.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed data from the Trauma Registry System at a Level I trauma center in southern Taiwan, covering the period from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2021. This study included 40,068 trauma patients aged 20 years and older. Statistical analyses included chi-square tests, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U tests, and multivariate analyses to identify independent risk factors for mortality. The predictive performance of the GTOS was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The final study population included 40,068 patients, with 818 deaths and 39,250 survivors. Deceased patients had higher GTOS scores (mean 132.8 vs. 76.1, p < 0.001) and required more blood transfusions (mean 4.0 vs. 0.3 units, p < 0.001) compared to survivors. The optimal GTOS cut-off value for predicting mortality was 104.5, with a sensitivity of 82.6% and a specificity of 84.3% (AUC = 0.917). A high GTOS score was associated with increased mortality (9.6 vs. 0.4%, p < 0.001) compared with a low GTOS score, even after adjusting for confounding factors (adjusted mortality rate of 2.86, p < 0.001), and a longer hospital stay (14.0 vs. 7.7 days, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The GTOS is a valuable prognostic tool for predicting mortality in trauma patients, providing a simple and rapid assessment method. Its high predictive accuracy supports its use in broader trauma patient populations beyond the elderly. Further studies are recommended to refine and validate the GTOS in diverse trauma settings to enhance its clinical utility.

Blood transfusion in injured older adults: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

We asked how increasing age interacts with transfusion and mortality among older injured adults at our large regional trauma center.

BACKGROUND

Older adults are increasing proportions of acute trauma care and transfusion, but the specific interactions of increasing age with blood product use are unclear.

METHODS/MATERIALS

Trauma data (age, injury severity, mechanism, etc.) were linked with transfusion service data (type, timing and numbers of units) for all acute trauma patients treated at our center 2011-2022. Subsets of patients aged ≥55 years were identified by age decade and trends assessed statistically, p < 0.01.

RESULTS

Of 73 645 patients, 25 409 (34.5%) were aged ≥55. Within increasing 10-year age cohorts, these older patients were increasingly female (32.2%-67.2%), transferred from outside facilities (55.2%-65.9%) and injured in falls (44.4%-90.3%). Overall, patients ≥55, despite roughly equivalent injury severity, were twice as likely to be transfused (24% vs. 12.8%) as younger patients and to die during hospitalisation (7.5% vs. 2.9%). Cohort survival at all ages and levels of transfusion intensity in the first 4 h of care were more than 50%. Through age 94, numbers of red cell and whole blood units given in the first 4 h of care were a function of injury severity, not age cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

In our trauma resuscitation practice, patients aged ≥55 years are more likely to receive blood products than younger patients, but numbers of units given in the first 4 h appear based on injury severity. Age equity in acute resuscitation is demonstrated.

Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score for Predicting Mortality among Older Korean Adults with Trauma: Is It Applicable in All Cases?

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to validate the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) for predicting mortality associated with trauma in older Korean adults and compare the GTOS with the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS).

METHODS

This study included patients aged ≥65 years who visited the Chungbuk National University Hospital Regional Trauma Center between January 2016 and December 2022. We used receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots to assess the discrimination and calibration of the scoring systems.

RESULTS

Among 3,053 patients, the median age was 77 years, and the mortality rate was 5.2%. The overall GTOS-predicted mortality and 1-TRISS were 5.4% (interquartile range [IQR], 3.7-9.5) and 4.7% (IQR, 4.7-4.7), respectively. The areas under the curves (AUCs) of 1-TRISS and GTOS for the total population were 0.763 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.719-0.806) and 0.794 (95% CI, 0.755-0.833), respectively. In the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤12 group, the in-hospital mortality rate was 27.5% (79 deaths). The GTOS-predicted mortality and 1-TRISS in this group were 18.6% (IQR, 7.5-34.7) and 26.9% (IQR, 11.9-73.1), respectively. The AUCs of 1-TRISS and GTOS for the total population were 0.800 (95% CI, 0.776-0.854) and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.685-0.804), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The GTOS and TRISS demonstrated comparable accuracy in predicting mortality, while the GTOS offered the advantage of simpler calculations. However, the GTOS tended to underestimate mortality in patients with GCS ≤12; thus, its application requires care in such cases.

Prognosis of major trauma in patients older than 85 years admitted to the ICU, a registry-based study

BACKGROUND

The aging population in France and Western Europe is on the rise, particularly among individuals aged 65 years and older. Although older adults are susceptible to traumatic injuries, they constitute a minority of trauma center admissions especially those aged 85 and above. The aim of our study was to investigate the prognostic factors for mortality among the older old population (aged 85 years and above) managed in ICU of Traumabase group trauma centers.

METHODS

This retrospective observational cohort study, conducted from 2013 to 2022, analyzed all severely injured older patients (aged ≥ 85 years) managed in 14 ICU trauma centers enrolled in the Traumabase registry. The study examined sociodemographic, clinical, and outcome variables. Frailty was assessed using the Clinical Frailty Scale.

RESULTS

Among the 365 older trauma patients, 190 (52.1%) were classified as non-frail (CFS 1-3), 80 (21.9%) as pre-frail (CFS 4,5), and 95 (26%) as frail (CFS 6-9). Falls were the most common mechanism of injury. High mortality rates were observed, with 43.5% ICU mortality and 45.5% mortality at day 30. Factors most associated with ICU mortality included traumatic brain injury (CGS < 13), pre-hospital micromethod hemoglobin < 13 and severity of injury (ISS > 16).

CONCLUSION

Factors such as traumatic brain injury and severe hemorrhage (micromethod hemoglobin < 13) and ISS > 16 are associated with ICU mortality in in patients older than 85 years trauma patient. Early geriatric intervention is crucial for optimizing outcomes in this vulnerable population.

Evaluation of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) as a Prognostic Tool in Intensive Care Unit Trauma Patients

BACKGROUND

Existing prognostic scoring systems for intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients require extensive data collection. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), which is based on age, injury severity, and transfusion need, has been validated for predicting mortality in elderly patients with trauma; however, its utility in the general ICU trauma population remains unexplored.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 2952 adult ICU trauma patients admitted between 2016 and 2021. The GTOS was calculated as follows: age + (Injury Severity Score × 2.5) + 22 (if transfused within 24 h). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to assess GTOS's ability to predict mortality. The optimal GTOS cutoff was determined using Youden's index. Mortality rates were compared between the high and low GTOS groups, including a propensity score-matched analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

This study included 2952 ICU trauma patients, with an overall mortality rate of 11.0% (n = 325). GTOS demonstrated good predictive accuracy for mortality (AUROC 0.80). The optimal cutoff was 121.8 (sensitivity, 0.791; specificity, 0.685). Despite adjustments, patients with GTOS ≥ 121.8 had significantly higher mortality (17.4% vs. 6.2%, p < 0.001) and longer hospital stays (20.3 vs. 15.3 days, p < 0.001) compared to GTOS < 121.8.

CONCLUSIONS

GTOS showed a reasonable ability to predict mortality in ICU trauma patients across all ages, although not as accurately as more complex ICU-specific models. With its simplicity, the GTOS may serve as a rapid screening tool for risk stratification in acute ICU trauma settings when combined with other data.

Development and Validation of Futility of Resuscitation Measure in Older Adult Trauma Patients

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to develop and validate Futility of Resuscitation Measure (FoRM) for predicting the futility of resuscitation among older adult trauma patients.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of the American College of Surgeons-Trauma Quality Improvement Program database (2017-2018) (derivation cohort) and American College of Surgeons level I trauma center database (2017-2022) (validation cohort). We included all severely injured (injury severity score >15) older adult (aged ≥60 y) trauma patients. Patients were stratified into decades of age. Injury characteristics (severe traumatic brain injury [Glasgow Coma Scale ≤ 8], traumatic brain injury midline shift), physiologic parameters (lowest in-hospital systolic blood pressure [≤1 h], prehospital cardiac arrest), and interventions employed (4-h packed red blood cell transfusions, emergency department resuscitative thoracotomy, resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta, emergency laparotomy [≤2 h], early vasopressor requirement [≤6 h], and craniectomy) were identified. Regression coefficient-based weighted scoring system was developed using the Schneeweiss method and subsequently validated using institutional database.

RESULTS

A total of 5562 patients in derivation cohort and 873 in validation cohort were identified. Mortality was 31% in the derivation cohort and FoRM had excellent discriminative power to predict mortality (area under the receiver operator characteristic = 0.860; 95% confidence interval [0.847-0.872], P < 0.001). Patients with a FoRM score of >16 had a less than 10% chance of survival, while those with a FoRM score of >20 had a less than 5% chance of survival. In validation cohort, mortality rate was 17% and FoRM had good discriminative power (area under the receiver operator characteristic = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [0.71-0.80], P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

FoRM can reliably identify the risk of futile resuscitation among older adult patients admitted to our level I trauma center.

Predicting 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma in Korea using machine learning algorithms: a retrospective study

PURPOSE

The number of elderly patients with trauma is increasing; therefore, precise models are necessary to estimate the mortality risk of elderly patients with trauma for informed clinical decision-making. This study aimed to develop machine learning based predictive models that predict 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma and to compare the predictive performance of various machine learning models.

METHODS

This study targeted patients aged ≥65 years with an Injury Severity Score of ≥15 who visited the regional trauma center at Chungbuk National University Hospital between 2016 and 2022. Four machine learning models-logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-were developed to predict 30-day mortality. The models' performance was compared using metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, F1 score, as well as Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values and learning curves.

RESULTS

The performance evaluation of the machine learning models for predicting mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma showed AUC values for logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and XGBoost of 0.938, 0.863, 0.919, and 0.934, respectively. Among the four models, XGBoost demonstrated superior accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, and F1 score of 0.91, 0.72, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.78, respectively. Analysis of important features of XGBoost using SHAP revealed associations such as a high Glasgow Coma Scale negatively impacting mortality probability, while higher counts of transfused red blood cells were positively correlated with mortality probability. The learning curves indicated increased generalization and robustness as training examples increased.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that machine learning models, especially XGBoost, can be used to predict 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma. Prognostic tools utilizing these models are helpful for physicians to evaluate the risk of mortality in elderly patients with severe trauma.

Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score as a Mortality Predictor in Isolated Moderate to Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major cause of mortality and disability worldwide, with severe cases significantly increasing the risk of complications and long-term mortality. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), based on age, injury severity, and transfusion need, has been validated for predicting mortality in older trauma patients, but its utility in predicting mortality for TBI patients remains unexplored.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 5543 adult trauma patients with isolated moderate to severe TBI, defined by head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores of ≥ 3, from 1998 to 2021. GTOS was calculated with the following formula: age + (Injury Severity Score × 2.5) + 22 (if transfused within 24 h). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) assessed GTOS's ability to predict mortality. The optimal GTOS cutoff value was determined using Youden's index. Mortality rates were compared between high- and low-GTOS groups, separated by the optimal GTOS cutoff value, including a propensity score-matched analysis adjusting for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 5543 patients, mortality was 8.3% (462 deaths). Higher mortality is correlated with male sex, older age, higher GTOS, and comorbidities like hypertension, coronary artery disease, and end-stage renal disease. The optimal GTOS cut-off for mortality prediction was 121.5 (AUC = 0.813). Even when the study population was matched by propensity score, patients with GTOS ≥121.5 had much higher odds of death (odds ratio 2.64, 95% confidence interval 1.93-3.61, p < 0.001) and longer hospital stays (mean 16.7 vs. 12.2 days, p < 0.001) than those with GTOS < 121.5.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the idea that GTOS is a useful tool for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in isolated moderate to severe TBI patients. However, we encourage further research to refine GTOS for better applicability in TBI patients.

Markers of Futile Resuscitation in Traumatic Hemorrhage: A Review of the Evidence and a Proposal for Futility Time-Outs during Massive Transfusion

The reduction in the blood supply following the 2019 coronavirus pandemic has been exacerbated by the increased use of balanced resuscitation with blood components including whole blood in urban trauma centers. This reduction of the blood supply has diminished the ability of blood banks to maintain a constant supply to meet the demands associated with periodic surges of urban trauma resuscitation. This scarcity has highlighted the need for increased vigilance through blood product stewardship, particularly among severely bleeding trauma patients (SBTPs). This stewardship can be enhanced by the identification of reliable clinical and laboratory parameters which accurately indicate when massive transfusion is futile. Consequently, there has been a recent attempt to develop scoring systems in the prehospital and emergency department settings which include clinical, laboratory, and physiologic parameters and blood products per hour transfused as predictors of futile resuscitation. Defining futility in SBTPs, however, remains unclear, and there is only nascent literature which defines those criteria which reliably predict futility in SBTPs. The purpose of this review is to provide a focused examination of the literature in order to define reliable parameters of futility in SBTPs. The knowledge of these reliable parameters of futility may help define a foundation for drawing conclusions which will provide a clear roadmap for traumatologists when confronted with SBTPs who are candidates for the declaration of futility. Therefore, we systematically reviewed the literature regarding the definition of futile resuscitation for patients with trauma-induced hemorrhagic shock, and we propose a concise roadmap for clinicians to help them use well-defined clinical, laboratory, and viscoelastic parameters which can define futility.

Prediction of Neurological Outcomes in Elderly Patients With Head Trauma Using the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score: A Retrospective Observational Study

Introduction Head trauma in elderly people is a problem in today's aging society. Elderly people are susceptible to head trauma because of their declining physical function; this tends to be severe. Outcome prediction is important in decision-making regarding treatment strategies; however, there is no unified method for predicting neurological outcomes in elderly patients with head trauma. Methods Elderly patients with head trauma admitted to the Japan Red Cross Narita Hospital between January 2019 and August 2023 were enrolled in this single-center, retrospective observational study. A favorable neurological outcome was defined as a cerebral performance category scale of 1 or 2. Multivariate logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were performed to investigate the association between geriatric trauma outcome scores and outcomes and to evaluate the predictive value of geriatric trauma outcome scores. The primary outcome was a favorable neurological outcome at discharge, and the secondary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Results A total of 313 elderly patients with head trauma were eligible for analysis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the geriatric trauma outcome score was significantly associated with a favorable neurological outcome at discharge (odds ratio 0.94, P <0.0001). In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the geriatric trauma outcome score had a good predictive value for favorable neurological outcomes at discharge (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.83). Conclusions The geriatric trauma outcome score had good predictive value for favorable neurological outcomes at discharge in elderly patients with head trauma and has the potential to aid in decision-making regarding treatment strategies for elderly patients with head trauma.

Performance of trauma scoring systems in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients: comparison of the ISS, TRISS, and GTOS based on a systemic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of the Injury Severity Score (ISS), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS), and the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

The MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched for studies published from January 2008 to October 2023. Studies assessing the performance of the ISS, TRISS, or GTOS in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients (over 60 years old) and reporting data for the analysis of the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) were included. Studies that were not conducted in a group of geriatric patients, did not consider mortality as the outcome variable, or had incomplete data were excluded. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) Clinical Prediction Rule Checklist was utilized to assess the risk of bias in included studies. STATA 16.0. was used for the AUROC analysis and HSROC analysis.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies involving 118,761 geriatric trauma patients were included. The pooled AUROC of the TRISS (AUC = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) was higher than ISS (AUC = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.71-0.79) and GTOS (AUC = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.77-0.83). The diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) calculated from HSROC curves also suggested that the TRISS (DOR = 21.5) had a better performance in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients than the ISS (DOR = 6.27) and GTOS (DOR = 4.76).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggested that the TRISS showed better accuracy and performance in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients than the ISS and GTOS.

Traumatic Brain Injury as an Independent Predictor of Futility in the Early Resuscitation of Patients in Hemorrhagic Shock

This review explores the concept of futility timeouts and the use of traumatic brain injury (TBI) as an independent predictor of the futility of resuscitation efforts in severely bleeding trauma patients. The national blood supply shortage has been exacerbated by the lingering influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of blood donors available, as well as by the adoption of balanced hemostatic resuscitation protocols (such as the increasing use of 1:1:1 packed red blood cells, plasma, and platelets) with and without early whole blood resuscitation. This has underscored the urgent need for reliable predictors of futile resuscitation (FR). As a result, clinical, radiologic, and laboratory bedside markers have emerged which can accurately predict FR in patients with severe trauma-induced hemorrhage, such as the Suspension of Transfusion and Other Procedures (STOP) criteria. However, the STOP criteria do not include markers for TBI severity or transfusion cut points despite these patients requiring large quantities of blood components in the STOP criteria validation cohort. Yet, guidelines for neuroprognosticating patients with TBI can require up to 72 h, which makes them less useful in the minutes and hours following initial presentation. We examine the impact of TBI on bleeding trauma patients, with a focus on those with coagulopathies associated with TBI. This review categorizes TBI into isolated TBI (iTBI), hemorrhagic isolated TBI (hiTBI), and polytraumatic TBI (ptTBI). Through an analysis of bedside parameters (such as the proposed STOP criteria), coagulation assays, markers for TBI severity, and transfusion cut points as markers of futilty, we suggest amendments to current guidelines and the development of more precise algorithms that incorporate prognostic indicators of severe TBI as an independent parameter for the early prediction of FR so as to optimize blood product allocation.

Application of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score in a Rural Setting

OBJECTIVE

To retrospectively apply the Geriatric Trauma Outcome (GTO) score to the patient population of a rural South Central Appalachian level 1 trauma center and identify the potential utility of the GTO score in guiding goals of care discussions.

METHODS

Trauma registry data was extracted for 5,627 patients aged 65+ from 2017 to 2021. GTO score was calculated for each patient. Descriptive statistics were calculated for age, Injury Severity Score (ISS), GTO score, receipt of red blood cells, discharge status, and code status. A simple logistic regression model was used to determine the relationship between GTO score and discharge status. The probability of mortality was then calculated using GTO score, and the distribution of code status among patients with ≤50, 51-75%, and >75% probability of mortality was examined.

RESULTS

For every 10-point increase in GTO score, odds of mortality increased by 79% (OR = 1.79; P < .001). Patients had an estimated 50% probability of mortality with a GTO score of 156, 75% with 174, and 99% with a score of 234, respectively. Seventeen patients had a GTO score associated with >75% probability of mortality. Of those 17 patients, four retained a full code status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis demonstrates that the GTO score is a validated measure in a rural setting and can be an easily calculated metric to help determine a geriatric patient's probability of mortality following a trauma. The results of our study also found that GTO score can be used to inform goals of care discussions with patients.

The 2023 WSES guidelines on the management of trauma in elderly and frail patients

BACKGROUND

The trauma mortality rate is higher in the elderly compared with younger patients. Ageing is associated with physiological changes in multiple systems and correlated with frailty. Frailty is a risk factor for mortality in elderly trauma patients. We aim to provide evidence-based guidelines for the management of geriatric trauma patients to improve it and reduce futile procedures.

METHODS

Six working groups of expert acute care and trauma surgeons reviewed extensively the literature according to the topic and the PICO question assigned. Statements and recommendations were assessed according to the GRADE methodology and approved by a consensus of experts in the field at the 10th international congress of the WSES in 2023.

RESULTS

The management of elderly trauma patients requires knowledge of ageing physiology, a focused triage, including drug history, frailty assessment, nutritional status, and early activation of trauma protocol to improve outcomes. Acute trauma pain in the elderly has to be managed in a multimodal analgesic approach, to avoid side effects of opioid use. Antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended in penetrating (abdominal, thoracic) trauma, in severely burned and in open fractures elderly patients to decrease septic complications. Antibiotics are not recommended in blunt trauma in the absence of signs of sepsis and septic shock. Venous thromboembolism prophylaxis with LMWH or UFH should be administrated as soon as possible in high and moderate-risk elderly trauma patients according to the renal function, weight of the patient and bleeding risk. A palliative care team should be involved as soon as possible to discuss the end of life in a multidisciplinary approach considering the patient's directives, family feelings and representatives' desires, and all decisions should be shared.

CONCLUSIONS

The management of elderly trauma patients requires knowledge of ageing physiology, a focused triage based on assessing frailty and early activation of trauma protocol to improve outcomes. Geriatric Intensive Care Units are needed to care for elderly and frail trauma patients in a multidisciplinary approach to decrease mortality and improve outcomes.

Clinical characteristics and mortality risk factors among trauma patients by age groups at a single center in Korea over 7 years: a retrospective study

Purpose

In this study, we aimed to compare the characteristics of patients with trauma by age group in a single center in Korea to identify the clinical characteristics and analyze the risk factors affecting mortality.

Methods

Patients aged ≥18 years who visited the Chungbuk National University Hospital Regional Trauma Center between January 2016 and December 2022 were included. The accident mechanism, severity of the injury, and outcomes were compared by classifying the patients into group A (18-64 years), group B (65-79 years), and group C (≥80 years). In addition, logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors affecting death.

Results

The most common injury mechanism was traffic accidents in group A (40.9%) and slipping in group B (37.0%) and group C (56.2%). Although group A had the highest intensive care unit admission rate (38.0%), group C had the highest mortality rate (9.5%). In the regression analysis, 3 to 8 points on the Glasgow Coma Scale had the highest odds ratio for mortality, and red blood cell transfusion within 24 hours, intensive care unit admission, age, and Injury Severity Score were the predictors of death.

Conclusions

For patients with trauma, the mechanism, injured body region, and severity of injury differed among the age groups. The high mortality rate of elderly patients suggests the need for different treatment approaches for trauma patients according to age. Identifying factors affecting clinical patterns and mortality according to age groups can help improve the prognosis of trauma patients in the future.

Age, admission platelet count, and mortality in severe isolated traumatic brain injury: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We asked whether patients >50 years of age with acute traumatic brain injury (TBI) present with lower platelet counts and whether lower platelet counts are independently associated with mortality.

METHODS

We combined trauma registry and laboratory data on a retrospective cohort of all patients ≥18 years of age admitted to our Level 1 US regional trauma center 2015-2021 with severe (Head Abbreviated Injury Score [AIS] ≥3), isolated (all other AIS <3) TBI who had a first platelet count within 1 h of arrival. Age and platelet count were assessed continuously and as groups (age 18-50 vs. >50, platelet normals, and at conventional transfusion thresholds). Outcomes such as mean admission platelet counts and in-hospital mortality were assessed categorically and with logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 44,056 patients, 1298 (3%, median age: 52 [IQR 33,68], 76.1% male) met all inclusion criteria with no differences between younger and older age groups for (ISS; 18 [14,26] vs. 17 [14,26], p = .22), New ISS (NISS; 29 [19,50] vs. 28 [17,50], p = .36), or AIS-Head (4 [3,5] vs. 4 [3,5]; p = .87). Patients aged >50 had lower admission platelet counts (219,000 ± 93,000 vs. 242,000 ± 76,000/μL; p < .001) and greater in-hospital mortality (24.5% vs. 15.6%, p < .001) than those 18-50. In multivariable regression, firearms injuries (OR9.08), increasing age (OR1.004), NISS (OR1.007), and AIS-Head (OR1.05), and decreasing admission platelet counts (OR0.998) were independently associated with mortality (p < .001-.041). Platelet transfusion in the first 4 h of care was more frequent among older patients (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients with TBI had lower admission platelet counts, which were independently associated with greater mortality.

The Significance of the Treatment for Elderly Severe Trauma Patients Who Required Intensive Care

Purpose Elderly trauma patients have a higher risk of severe disability and death, and this outcome burden in elderly trauma patients must be addressed in countries in which the population is aging. The clarification of the unique clinical features of elderly people who have experienced trauma is important. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the significance of the treatment for elderly severe trauma patients based on the prognosis and total hospital cost. Methods Trauma patients transferred to our emergency department (ED) and admitted to our intensive care unit (ICU) directly or through emergency surgery between January 2013 and December 2019 were examined. We divided patients into three groups: <65 years old (Group Y); 65-79 years old (Group M); and ≥80 years old (Group E). We compared the pre- and post-trauma American Society of Anesthesiology Physical Status (ASA-PS) score and the Katz Activities of Daily Living (ADL) questionnaire at arrival among the three groups. In addition, the duration of ICU and hospital stays, hospital mortality, and total treatment costs were compared. Results There were 1,652 patients admitted to ICU through the ED from January 2013 to December 2019. Of those patients, 197 trauma patients were analyzed. There was no significant difference in injury severity scores between the groups. Significant differences in both the ASA-PS and Katz-ADL scores in posttrauma status were observed among the three groups (posttrauma ASA-PS, 2.0 (2.0, 2.8) in Group Y, 3.0 (2.0, 3.0) in Group M, 3.0 (3.0, 3.0) in Group E, p < 0.001*, posttrauma Katz-ADL, 10.0 (3.3, 12.0) in Group Y, 5.5 (2.0, 10.0) in Group M, 2.0 (0.5, 4.0) in Group E, p < 0.001). The duration of both ICU and hospital stay was significantly longer in Group E compared to the other groups (ICU stay, 4.0 (3.0, 6.5) days in Group Y, 4.0 (3.0, 9.8) days in Group M, 6.5 (3.0, 15.3) days, p = 0.006, hospital stay, 16.9 (8.6, 33.0) days in Group Y, 26.7 (12.0, 51.8) days in Group M, 32.5 (12.8, 51.5) days in Group E, p = 0.005). ICU and hospital mortality were highest in Group E compared with the other groups, but the differences were not significant. Finally, the total hospital cost in Group E was significantly higher than the other groups. Conclusions In elderly trauma patients who required intensive care, PS and ADL in posttrauma status were worse, ICU and hospital stays were longer, and ICU and hospital mortality were higher compared with younger patients. In addition, medical costs were greater in elderly patients. It is supposed that the therapeutic effect observed in young trauma patients cannot be expected in elderly trauma patients.

The value of compassion: Healthcare savings of palliative care consults in trauma

BACKGROUND

The effects of palliative care (PC) consultation on patient costs and hospitalization metrics in the adult trauma population are unclear.

STUDY DESIGN

We interrogated our Level I trauma center databases from 1/1/19 to 3/31/21 for patients age ≥18 admitted to the trauma service. Patients undergoing PC consult were matched using propensity scoring to those without PC consultation based on age, admission Glasgow Coma Scale score, Injury Severity Score and Head Abbreviated Injury Scale. Total costs, total cost per day, hospital length of stay (LOS), ICU LOS, intubation days, discharge disposition, and rates of nephrology consultation and tracheostomy/feeding tube placements were compared.

RESULTS

140 unique patients underwent PC consultation and were matched to a group not receiving PC consult during the same period. Median total costs in the PC cohort were $39,532 compared to $70,330 in the controls (p<0.01).  Median costs per day in the PC cohort were $3,495 vs $17,970 in the controls (p<0.01).  Median costs per ICU day in the PC cohort were $3,774 vs $17,127 in the controls (p<0.01).  Mean hospital LOS (15.7 vs 7 days), ICU LOS (7.9 vs 2.9 days), and ventilator days (5.1 vs 1.5) were significantly higher in the PC cohort (all p<0.01).  Rates of nephrology consultation (8.6 vs 2.1%, p = 0.03) and tracheostomy/feeding tube placements (12.1 vs 1.4%, p<0.01) were also higher in the PC group.  Patients were more likely to discharge to hospice if they received a PC consult (33.6 vs 2.1%, p<0.01).  Mean time to PC consult was 7.2 days (range 1 hour to 45 days). LOS post-consult correlated positively with time to PC consultation (r = 0.27, p<0.01).

CONCLUSION

Expert PC services are known to alleviate suffering and avert patient goal- and value-incongruent care. While trauma patients demand significant resources, PC consultation offered in concordance with life-sustaining interventions is associated with significant savings to patients and the healthcare system. Given the correlation between LOS following PC consult and time to PC consult, savings may be amplified by earlier PC consultation in appropriate patients.

All elderly are fragile, but some are more fragile than others: an epidemiological study from one of the busiest trauma centers in Italy

As the older population increases, the number of elderly accessing the emergency department following a trauma increases accordingly. High-level trauma enters together with the identification of predictive parameters for poor outcome and mortality, may result in a death rate improvement of up to 30% in this group of patients. This study analyzes the epidemiology of major trauma admissions at Niguarda Trauma Center in Milan, Italy, focusing on the geriatric population and aiming to discriminate the trauma outcomes in the range of population between 65 and 75 years old (Senior Adult) and to compare it with the outcomes among people over 75 years old (Elderly). The variables analyzed included mortality, mechanism of injury, body district injured, Injury Severity Score (ISS), Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS), Geriatric Trauma Score (GTO), and outcome. Head trauma remains the main cause of mortality with falls and road accidents being the most common mechanism of injury. Frailty and associated use of anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy increased the risk of death by 42%. The subdivision of the elder patients into two groups (65-75 and > 75) showed a difference in the probability of death and effective mortality rate.

Defining the Mortality Rate of Elderly Trauma Patients With Operative Feeding Tubes

INTRODUCTION

Placement of feeding tubes in elderly patients has not been studied in elderly trauma patients. The objectives of this study were to determine in-hospital mortality in elderly trauma patients receiving operative feeding tubes and to identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective study utilizing 2017 National Trauma Data Bank data was conducted. Trauma patients aged 65 and older with operative feeding tubes were included. Demographic, injury, comorbidity, and general hospital course data were analyzed. Two cohorts were constructed: survival and non-survival to hospital discharge. Bivariate analysis and logistic regression were performed to determine factors independently associated with in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 3,398 patients were analyzed with 331 (9.7%) dying during hospitalization. Patients had a median age of 75 years and sustained severe injuries (median ISS 17). Patients who died were older (76 vs. 75 years, p = .03), more severely injured (ISS 22 vs. 17, p < .001), had a higher geriatric trauma outcome score (134 vs. 121, p < .001), and had lower rates of dementia (8 vs. 13%, p = .01). Multivariate regression showed male sex, lower admission GCS, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, and an Advance Directive Limiting Care (ADLC) were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. Dementia diagnosis was negatively associated with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The in-hospital mortality rate for elderly trauma patients with operative feeding tubes placed was notably high. Identifying factors associated with in-hospital mortality will serve to assist providers in counseling patients and caregivers about the outcomes of operative feeding tube placement in this patient population.

Predicting mortality in elderly trauma patients: a review of the current literature

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Advances in medical care allow patients to live longer, translating into a larger geriatric patient population. Adverse outcomes increase with older age, regardless of injury severity. Age, comorbidities, and physiologic deterioration have been associated with the increased mortality seen in geriatric trauma patients. As such, outcome prediction models are critical to guide clinical decision making and goals of care discussions for this population. The purpose of this review was to evaluate the various outcome prediction models for geriatric trauma patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

There are several prediction models used for predicting mortality in elderly trauma patients. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) is a validated and accurate predictor of mortality in geriatric trauma patients and performs equally if not better to traditional scores such as the Trauma and Injury Severity Score. However, studies recommend medical comorbidities be included in outcome prediction models for geriatric patients to further improve performance.

SUMMARY

The ideal outcome prediction model for geriatric trauma patients has not been identified. The GTOS demonstrates accurate predictive ability in elderly trauma patients. The addition of medical comorbidities as a variable in outcome prediction tools may result in superior performance; however, additional research is warranted.

Geriatric trauma prognosis trends over 10 years: analysis of a nationwide trauma registry

Purpose

With Japan’s population rapidly skewing toward aging, the number of geriatric trauma patients is expected to increase. Since we need to continue to improve the quality of geriatric trauma patient care, this study aimed to evaluate in-hospital mortality trends among geriatric trauma patients in Japan over a recent 10-year period.

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study of data from a Japanese nationwide trauma registry (the Japan National Trauma Data Bank) on patients admitted between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2017. Geriatric patients were defined as those 65 years old and older. The primary outcome was to clarify in-hospital mortality trends and changes over these 10 years.

Results

We identified 265 268 eligible trauma patients. Excluding those under 65 years old and those with inadequate or unknown age data, missing prognosis, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, and burns, 107 766 patients were enrolled in this study. The total trauma patient in-hospital mortality trend was evaluated using the Cochran-Armitage test and showed a significant decrease (p<0.001). Although severe trauma patients (Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥16) showed a significant decreasing trend (p<0.001) over time (from 26.1% to 14.5%), less-severe trauma patients (ISS <16) did not (p=0.41) (from 2.7% to 2.1%). Mixed logistic regression analysis showed that the number of year patients stayed in the hospital was significantly associated with mortality.

Conclusions

While recognizing the limitations of the current analysis, our data demonstrated that prognoses for severe trauma patients over 65 years old improved dramatically over these 10 years, especially in those with severe trauma.

Level of evidence

Ⅲ—retrospective cohort study.

Applying Evidence-based Principles to Guide Emergency Surgery in Older Adults

Although outcomes for older adults undergoing elective surgery are generally comparable to younger patients, outcomes associated with emergency surgery are poor. These adverse outcomes are in part because of the physiologic changes associated with aging, increased odds of comorbidities in older adults, and a lower probability of presenting with classic "red flag" physical examination findings. Existing evidence-based perioperative best practice guidelines perform better for elective compared with emergency surgery; so, decision making for older adults undergoing emergency surgery can be challenging for surgeons and other clinicians and may rely on subjective experience. To aid surgical decision making, clinicians should assess premorbid functional status, evaluate for the presence of geriatric syndromes, and consider social determinants of health. Documentation of care preferences and a surrogate decision maker are critical. In discussing the risks and benefits of surgery, patient-centered narrative formats with inclusion of geriatric-specific outcomes are important. Use of risk calculators can be meaningful, although limitations exist. After surgery, daily evaluation for common postoperative complications should be considered, as well as early discharge planning and palliative care consultation, if appropriate. The role of the geriatrician in emergency surgery for older adults may vary based on the acuity of patient presentation, but perioperative consultation and comanagement are strongly recommended to optimize care delivery and patient outcomes.

Comparison of National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator, Trauma and Injury Severity Score, and American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status to predict operative trauma mortality in elderly patients

BACKGROUND

The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) uses anatomical and physiologic variables to predict mortality. Elderly (65 years or older) trauma patients have increased mortality and morbidity for a given TRISS, in part because of functional status and comorbidities. These factors are incorporated into the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) and National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (NSQIP-SRC). We hypothesized scoring tools using comorbidities and functional status to be superior at predicting mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), and complications in elderly trauma patients undergoing operation.

METHODS

Four level I trauma centers prospectively collected data on elderly trauma patients undergoing surgery within 24 hours of admission. Using logistic regression, five scoring models were compared: ASA-PS, NSQIP-SRC, TRISS, TRISS-ASA-PS, and TRISS-NSQIP-SRC.Brier scores and area under the receiver operator characteristics curve were calculated to compare mortality prediction. Adjusted R2 and root mean squared error were used to compare LOS and predictive ability for number of complications.

RESULTS

From 122 subjects, 9 (7.4%) died, and the average LOS was 12.9 days (range, 1-110 days). National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator was superior to ASA-PS and TRISS at predicting mortality (area under the receiver operator characteristics curve, 0.978 vs. 0.768 vs. 0.903; p = 0.007). Furthermore, NSQIP-SRC was more accurate predicting LOS (R2, 25.9% vs. 13.3% vs. 20.5%) and complications (R2, 34.0% vs. 22.6% vs. 29.4%) compared with TRISS and ASA-PS. Adding TRISS to NSQIP-SRC improved predictive ability compared with NSQIP-SRC alone for complications (R2, 35.5% vs. 34.0%; p = 0.046). However, adding ASA-PS or TRISS to NSQIP-SRC did not improve the predictive ability for mortality or LOS.

CONCLUSION

The NSQIP-SRC, which includes comorbidities and functional status, had superior ability to predict mortality, LOS, and complications compared with TRISS alone in elderly trauma patients undergoing surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiologic; Level III.

Identification of Seniors at Risk Scoring in Geriatric Trauma: Exploring Clinical Outcome Correlations

Introduction

Geriatric trauma patients (GTP) make up an increasing percentage of the overall trauma population. Due to frailty, GTP are at an increased risk of morbidity and readmission. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to prognosticate outcomes to assist with resource utilization. We hypothesized that the "Identification of Seniors at Risk" (ISAR) score may correlate with both clinical outcomes and resource utilization for geriatric trauma patients.

Methods

Patients older than 65 years who were admitted to the trauma service were screened using an ISAR scoring algorithm. Outcomes, including 30-day mortality, all-cause morbidity, hospital length of stay (LOS), intensive care unit (ICU) LOS, functional independence measures (FIM) at discharge, and percent discharged to a facility, were analyzed. Both descriptive and data-appropriate parametric and non-parametric statistical approaches were utilized, with significance set at α = 0.05.

Results

One thousand and two hundred seventeen GTP were included in this study. The average age was 81, median injury severity score was 9, and 99% had a blunt trauma mechanism. ISAR scores were generally associated with increasing 30-day mortality (0%, 1.9%, 2.4%, and 2.1% for ISAR 0, ISAR 1-2, ISAR 3-4, and ISAR 5-6, respectively), morbidity (2.6%, 7.6%, 14.7%, and 7.3% for respective categories), longer hospital (3.1, 4.6, 5.1, and 4.3 days, respectively) and ICU stays (0.37, 0.64, 0.81, and 0.67, respectively), lower FIM score at discharge (18.5, 17.1, 15.8, and 14.4, for respective categories), as well as increasing percentage of patients discharged to a facility (29.8%, 58.9%, 72.1%, and 78.8% for respective categories).

Conclusions

This exploratory study provides important early insight into potential relationships between ISAR and geriatric trauma outcomes. ISAR screening is a quick and easy-to-use tool that may be useful in GTP triage, level-of-care determination, and disposition planning. Understanding populations at risk, especially those with more intricate discharge needs, is an important step in mitigating those risks and implementing appropriate care plans.

Predicting Mortality of Korean Geriatric Trauma Patients: A Comparison between Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score and Trauma and Injury Severity Score

PURPOSE

The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) is a new prognostic tool used to predict mortality of geriatric trauma patients. We aimed to apply this model to Korean geriatric trauma patients and compare it with the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) method.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients aged ≥65 years who were admitted to a level 1 trauma center from 2014 to 2018 were included in this study. Data on age, Injury Severity Score (ISS), packed red blood cell transfusion within 24 h, TRISS, admission disposition, mortality, and discharge disposition were collected. We analyzed the validity of GTOS and TRISS by comparing the area under the survival curve. Subgroup analysis for age, admission disposition, and ISS was performed.

RESULTS

Among 2586 participants, the median age was 75 years (interquartile range: 70-81). The median ISS was 9 (interquartile range: 4-12), with a transfusion rate (within 24 h) of 15.9% and mortality rate of 6.1%. The areas under the curve (AUCs) were 0.832 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.817-0.846] and 0.800 (95% CI, 0.784-0.815) for GTOS and TRISS, respectively. On subgroup analysis, patients with ISS ≥9 showed a higher AUC of GTOS compared to the AUC of TRISS (p<0.05). Other subgroup analyses showed equally good power of discrimination for mortality.

CONCLUSION

GTOS can be used to predict mortality of severely injured Korean geriatric patients, and also be helpful in deciding whether invasive or aggressive treatments should be administered to them.

Validation of the artificial intelligence-based trauma outcomes predictor (TOP) in patients 65 years and older

Background

The Trauma Outcomes Predictor tool was recently derived using a machine learning methodology called optimal classification trees and validated for prediction of outcomes in trauma patients. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor is available as an interactive smartphone application. In this study, we sought to assess the performance of the Trauma Outcomes Predictor in the elderly trauma patient.

Methods

All patients aged 65 years and older in the American College of Surgeons–Trauma Quality Improvement Program 2017 database were included. The performance of the Trauma Outcomes Predictor in predicting in-hospital mortality and combined and specific morbidity based on incidence of 9 specific in-hospital complications was assessed using the c-statistic methodology, with planned subanalyses for patients 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85+ years.

Results

A total of 260,505 patients were included. Median age was 77 (71–84) years, 57% were women, and 98.8% had a blunt mechanism of injury. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor accurately predicted mortality in all patients, with excellent performance for penetrating trauma (c-statistic: 0.92) and good performance for blunt trauma (c-statistic: 0.83). Its best performance was in patients 65 to 74 years (c-statistic: blunt 0.86, penetrating 0.93). Among blunt trauma patients, the Trauma Outcomes Predictor had the best discrimination for predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome (c-statistic 0.75) and cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation (c-statistic 0.75). Among penetrating trauma patients, the Trauma Outcomes Predictor had the best discrimination for deep and organ space surgical site infections (c-statistics 0.95 and 0.84, respectively).

Conclusion

The Trauma Outcomes Predictor is a novel, interpretable, and highly accurate predictor of in-hospital mortality in the elderly trauma patient up to age 85 years. The Trauma Outcomes Predictor could prove useful for bedside counseling of elderly patients and their families and for benchmarking the quality of geriatric trauma care.

Improved Prediction of Older Adult Discharge After Trauma Using a Novel Machine Learning Paradigm

BACKGROUND

The ability to reliably predict outcomes after trauma in older adults (age ≥ 65 y) is critical for clinical decision making. Using novel machine-learning techniques, we sought to design a nonlinear, competing risks paradigm for prediction of older adult discharge disposition following injury.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The National Trauma Databank (NTDB) was used to identify patients 65+ y between 2007 and 2014. Training was performed on an enriched cohort of diverse patients. Factors included age, comorbidities, length of stay, and physiologic parameters to predict in-hospital mortality and discharge disposition (home versus skilled nursing/long-term care facility). Length of stay and discharge status were analyzed via competing risks survival analysis with Bayesian additive regression trees and a multinomial mixed model.

RESULTS

The resulting sample size was 47,037 patients. Admission GCS and age were important in predicting mortality and discharge disposition. As GCS decreased, patients were more likely to die (risk ratio increased by average of 1.4 per 2-point drop in GCS, P < 0.001). As GCS decreased, patients were also more likely to be discharged to a skilled nursing or long-term care facility (risk ratio decreased by 0.08 per 2-point decrease in GCS, P< 0.001). The area under curve for prediction of discharge home was improved in the competing risks model 0.73 versus 0.43 in the traditional multinomial mixed model.

CONCLUSIONS

Predicting older adult discharge disposition after trauma is improved using machine learning over traditional regression analysis. We confirmed that a nonlinear, competing risks paradigm enhances prediction on any given hospital day post injury.

Unseen Burden of Injury: Post-Hospitalization Mortality in Geriatric Trauma Patients

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Older adults are at risk for adverse outcomes after trauma, but little is known about post-acute survival as state and national trauma registries collect only inpatient or 30-day outcomes. This study investigates long-term, out-of-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

Level I Trauma Center registry data were matched to the US Social Security Death Index (SSDI) to determine long-term and out-of-hospital outcomes of older patients. Blunt trauma patients aged ≥65 were identified from 2009 to 2015 in an American College of Surgeons Level 1 Trauma Center registry, n = 6289 patients with an age range 65-105 years, mean age 78.5 ± 8.4 years. Dates of death were queried using social security numbers and unique patient identifiers. Demographics, injury, treatments, and outcomes were compared using descriptive and univariate statistics.

RESULTS

Of 6289 geriatric trauma patients, 505 (8.0%) died as an inpatient following trauma. Fall was the most common mechanism of injury (n = 4757, 76%) with mortality rate of 46.5% at long-term follow-up; motor vehicle crash (MVC) (n = 1212, 19%) had long-term mortality of 27.6%. Overall, 24.1% of patients died within 1 year of trauma. Only 8 of 488 patients who died between 1 and 6 months post-trauma were inpatient. Mortality rate varied by discharge location: 25.1% home, 36.4% acute rehabilitation, and 51.5% skilled nursing facility, P < .0001.

CONCLUSION

Inpatient and 30-day mortality rates in national outcome registries fail to fully capture the burden of trauma on older patients. Though 92% of geriatric trauma patients survived to discharge, almost one-quarter had died by 1 year following their injuries.

Best case/worst case for the trauma ICU: Development and pilot testing of a communication tool for older adults with traumatic injury

BACKGROUND

"Best Case/Worst Case" (BC/WC) is a communication tool to support shared decision making in older adults with surgical illness. We aimed to adapt and test BC/WC for use with critically ill older adult trauma patients.

METHODS

We conducted focus groups with 48 trauma clinicians in Wisconsin, Texas, and Oregon. We used qualitative content analysis to characterize feedback and adapted the tool to fit this setting. Using rapid sequence iterative design, we developed an implementation tool kit. We pilot tested this intervention at two trauma centers using a pre-post study design with older trauma patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Main outcome measures included study feasibility, intervention acceptability, quality of communication, and clinician moral distress.

RESULTS

BC/WC for trauma patients uses a graphic aid to document major events over time, illustrate plausible scenarios, and convey uncertainty. We enrolled 86 of 116 eligible patients and their surrogates (48 pre/38 postintervention). The median patient age was 72 years (51-95 years) and mean Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score was 126.1 (±30.6). We trained 43 trauma attendings and trauma fellows to use the intervention. Ninety-four percent could perform essential tool elements after training. The median end-of-life communication score (scale 0-10) improved from 4.5 to 6.6 (p = 0.006) after intervention as reported by family and from 4.1 to 6.0 (p = 0.03) as reported by nurses. Moral distress did not change. However, there was improvement (less distress) reported by physicians regarding "witnessing providers giving false hope" from 7.34 to 5.03 (p = 0.022). Surgeons reported the tool put multiple clinicians on the same page and was useful for families, but tedious to incorporate into rounds.

CONCLUSION

BC/WC trauma ICU is acceptable to clinicians and may support improved communication in the ICU. Future efficacy testing is threatened by enrollment challenges for severely injured older adults and their family members.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic, level III.

Age-Dependent Patient and Trauma Characteristics and Hospital Resource Requirements-Can Improvement Be Made? An Analysis from the German Trauma Registry

Background and objectives: The burden of geriatric trauma patients continues to rise in Western society. Injury patterns and outcomes differ from those seen in younger adults. Getting a better understanding of these differences helps medical staff to provide a better care for the elderly. The aim of this study was to determine epidemiological differences between geriatric trauma patients and their younger counterparts. To do so, we used data of polytraumatized patients from the TraumaRegister DGU^®. Materials and Methods: All adult patients that were admitted between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2017 were included from the TraumaRegister DGU^®. Patients aged 55 and above were defined as the elderly patient group. Patients aged 18–54 were included as control group. Patient and trauma characteristics, as well as treatment and outcome were compared between groups. Results: A total of 114,169 severely injured trauma patients were included, of whom 55,404 were considered as elderly patients and 58,765 younger patients were selected for group 2. Older patients were more likely to be admitted to a Level II or III trauma center. Older age was associated with a higher occurrence of low energy trauma and isolated traumatic brain injury. More restricted utilization of CT-imaging at admission was observed in older patients. While the mean Injury Severity Score (ISS) throughout the age groups stayed consistent, mortality rates increased with age: the overall mortality in young trauma patients was 7.0%, and a mortality rate of 40.2% was found in patients >90 years of age. Conclusions: This study shows that geriatric trauma patients are more frequently injured due to low energy trauma, and more often diagnosed with isolated craniocerebral injuries than younger patients. Furthermore, utilization of diagnostic tools as well as outcome differ between both groups. Given the aging society in Western Europe, upcoming studies should focus on the right application of resources and optimizing trauma care for the geriatric trauma patient.

The GERtality Score: The Development of a Simple Tool to Help Predict in-Hospital Mortality in Geriatric Trauma Patients

Feasible and predictive scoring systems for severely injured geriatric patients are lacking. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a scoring system for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in severely injured geriatric trauma patients. The TraumaRegister DGU^® (TR-DGU) was utilized. European geriatric patients (≥65 years) admitted between 2008 and 2017 were included. Relevant patient variables were implemented in the GERtality score. By conducting a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, a comparison with the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) and the Revised Injury Severity Classification II (RISC-II) Score was performed. A total of 58,055 geriatric trauma patients (mean age: 77 years) were included. Univariable analysis led to the following variables: age ≥ 80 years, need for packed red blood cells (PRBC) transfusion prior to intensive care unit (ICU), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ≥ 3, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤ 13, Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) in any body region ≥ 4. The maximum GERtality score was 5 points. A mortality rate of 72.4% was calculated in patients with the maximum GERtality score. Mortality rates of 65.1 and 47.5% were encountered in patients with GERtality scores of 4 and 3 points, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the novel GERtality score was 0.803 (GTOS: 0.784; RISC-II: 0.879). The novel GERtality score is a simple and feasible score that enables an adequate prediction of the probability of mortality in polytraumatized geriatric patients by using only five specific parameters.

SafeNET: Initial development and validation of a real-time tool for predicting mortality risk at the time of hospital transfer to a higher level of care

Background

Processes for transferring patients to higher acuity facilities lack a standardized approach to prognostication, increasing the risk for low value care that imposes significant burdens on patients and their families with unclear benefits. We sought to develop a rapid and feasible tool for predicting mortality using variables readily available at the time of hospital transfer.

Methods and findings

All work was carried out at a single, large, multi-hospital integrated healthcare system. We used a retrospective cohort for model development consisting of patients aged 18 years or older transferred into the healthcare system from another hospital, hospice, skilled nursing or other healthcare facility with an admission priority of direct emergency admit. The cohort was randomly divided into training and test sets to develop first a 54-variable, and then a 14-variable gradient boosting model to predict the primary outcome of all cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included 30-day and 90-day mortality and transition to comfort measures only or hospice care. For model validation, we used a prospective cohort consisting of all patients transferred to a single, tertiary care hospital from one of the 3 referring hospitals, excluding patients transferred for myocardial infarction or maternal labor and delivery. Prospective validation was performed by using a web-based tool to calculate the risk of mortality at the time of transfer. Observed outcomes were compared to predicted outcomes to assess model performance.

The development cohort included 20,985 patients with 1,937 (9.2%) in-hospital mortalities, 2,884 (13.7%) 30-day mortalities, and 3,899 (18.6%) 90-day mortalities. The 14-variable gradient boosting model effectively predicted in-hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality (c = 0.903 [95% CI:0.891–0.916]), c = 0.877 [95% CI:0.864–0.890]), and c = 0.869 [95% CI:0.857–0.881], respectively). The tool was proven feasible and valid for bedside implementation in a prospective cohort of 679 sequentially transferred patients for whom the bedside nurse calculated a SafeNET score at the time of transfer, taking only 4–5 minutes per patient with discrimination consistent with the development sample for in-hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality (c = 0.836 [95%CI: 0.751–0.921], 0.815 [95% CI: 0.730–0.900], and 0.794 [95% CI: 0.725–0.864], respectively).

Conclusions

The SafeNET algorithm is feasible and valid for real-time, bedside mortality risk prediction at the time of hospital transfer. Work is ongoing to build pathways triggered by this score that direct needed resources to the patients at greatest risk of poor outcomes.

Validation of the geriatric trauma outcome scores in predicting outcomes of elderly trauma patients

BACKGROUND

Using three patient characteristics, including age, Injury Severity Score (ISS) and transfusion within 24 h of admission (yes vs. no), the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) and Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score II (GTOS II) have been developed to predict mortality and unfavourable discharge (to a nursing home or hospice facility), of those who were ≥65 years old, respectively.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to validate the GTOS and GTOS II models. For the nested-cohort requiring intensive care, we compared the GTOS scores with two ICU prognostic scores - the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III and Australian and New Zealand Risk of Death (ANZROD).

METHODS

All elderly trauma patients admitted to the State Trauma Unit between 2009 and 2019 were included. The discrimination ability and calibration of the GTOS and GTOS II scores were assessed by the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic (AUROC) curve and a calibration plot, respectively.

RESULTS

Of the 57,473 trauma admissions during the study period, 15,034 (26.2%) were ≥65 years-old. The median age and ISS of the cohort were 80 (interquartile range [IQR] 72-87) and 6 (IQR 2-9), respectively; and the average observed mortality was 4.3%. The ability of the GTOS to predict mortality was good (AUROC 0.838, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.821-0.855), and better than either age (AUROC 0.603, 95%CI 0.581-0.624) or ISS (AUROC 0.799, 95%CI 0.779-0.819) alone. The GTOS II's ability to predict unfavourable discharge was satisfactory (AUROC 0.707, 95%CI 0.696-0.719) but no better than age alone. Both GTOS and GTOS II scores over-estimated risks of the adverse outcome when the predicted risks were high. The GTOS score (AUROC 0.683, 95%CI 0.591-0.775) was also inferior to the APACHE III (AUROC 0.783, 95%CI 0.699-0.867) or ANZROD (AUROC 0.788, 95%CI 0.705-0.870) in predicting mortality for those requiring intensive care.

CONCLUSIONS

The GTOS scores had a good ability to discriminate between survivors and non-survivors in the elderly trauma patients, but GTOS II scores were no better than age alone in predicting unfavourable discharge. Both GTOS and GTOS II scores were not well-calibrated when the predicted risks of adverse outcome were high.

Prioritizing Communication in the Provision of Palliative Care for the Trauma Patient

Purpose of Review

Communication skills in the ICU are an essential part of the care of trauma patients. The goal of this review is to summarize key aspects of our understanding of communication with injured patients in the ICU.

Recent Findings

The need to communicate effectively and empathetically with patients and identify primary goals of care is an essential part of trauma care in the ICU. The optimal design to support complex communication in the ICU will be dependent on institutional experience and resources. The best/worst/most likely model provides a structural model for communication.

Summary

We have an imperative to improve the communication for all patients, not just those at the end of their life. A structured approach is important as is involving family at all stages of care. Communication skills can and should be taught to trainees.

The incidence of geriatric trauma is increasing and comparison of different scoring tools for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients

Purpose

The study aimed to examine the changing incidence of geriatric trauma and evaluate the predictive ability of different scoring tools for in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

Methods

Annual reports released by the National Trauma Database (NTDB) in the USA from 2005 to 2015 and the Trauma Register DGU® in Germany from 1994 to 2012 were analyzed to examine the changing incidence of geriatric trauma. Secondary analysis of a single-center cohort study conducted among 311 severely injured geriatric trauma patients in a level I trauma center in Switzerland was completed. According to the in-hospital survival status, patients were divided into the survival and non-survival group. The differences of the ISS (injury severity score), NISS (new injury severity score), TRISS (Trauma and Injury Severity Score), APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II), and SPAS II (simplified acute physiology score II) between two groups were evaluated. Then, the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of different scoring tools for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients were calculated.

Results

The analysis of the NTDB showed that the increase in the number of geriatric trauma ranged from 18 to 30% between 2005 and 2015. The analysis of the DGU® showed that the mean age of trauma patients rose from 39.11 in 1993 to 51.10 in 2013, and the proportion of patients aged ≥ 60 years rose from 16.5 to 37.5%. The findings from the secondary analysis showed that 164 (52.73%) patients died in the hospital. The ISS, NISS, APACHE II, and SAPS II in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group, and the TRISS in the death group was significantly lower than those in the survival group. The AUCs of the ISS, NISS, TRISS, APACHE II, and SAPS II for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients were 0.807, 0.850, 0.828, 0.715, and 0.725, respectively.

Conclusion

The total number of geriatric trauma is increasing as the population ages. The accuracy of ISS, NISS and TRISS was higher than the APACHE II and SAPS II for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

The role of palliative care in acute trauma: When is it appropriate?

INTRODUCTION

We hypothesized that trauma providers are reticent to consider palliative measures in acute trauma care.

METHODS

An electronic survey based on four patient scenarios with identical vital signs and serious blunt injuries, but differing ages and frailty scores was sent to WTA and EAST members.

RESULTS

509 (24%) providers completed the survey. Providers supported early transition to comfort care in 85% old-frail, 53% old-fit, 77% young-frail, and 30% young-fit patients. Providers were more likely to transition frail vs. fit patients with (OR = 4.8 [3.8-6.3], p < 0.001) or without (OR = 16.7 [12.5-25.0], p < 0.001) an advanced directive (AD) and more likely to transition old vs. young patients with (OR = 2.0 [1.6-2.6], p < 0.001) or without (OR = 4.2 [2.8-5.0], p < 0.001) an AD.

CONCLUSIONS

In specific clinical situations, there was wide acceptance among trauma providers for the early institution of palliative measures. Provider decision-making was primarily based on patient frailty and age. ADs were helpful for fit or young patients. Provider demographics did not impact decision-making.

Prediction of mortality in critically-ill elderly trauma patients: a single centre retrospective observational study and comparison of the performance of trauma scores

Background

Trauma in the elderly (≥ 65 years) population is increasing. This study compares the performance of trauma scoring systems in predicting 30-day mortality among the traumatised elderly patients admitted to the intensive care unit in a major trauma centre.

Methods

We collected retrospective data for all elderly trauma patients admitted to our intensive care units between January 2012 and December 2017. We assessed Injury Severity Score (ISS), Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) and the Trauma Audit and Research Network’s (TARN) Probability of Survival (Ps17) between survivors and non-survivors. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the performance of these scoring systems.

Results

There were 255 elderly trauma patients with overall 30-day survival of 76%. There was a statistically significant difference in ISS, GTOS and Ps17 scores between survivors and non-survivors (p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was statistically significant for all 3, with AUROC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.59–0.74) for the ISS, 0.68 (95% CI 0.61–0.76) for the GTOS and 0.79 (95% CI 0.72–0.85) for the Ps17. The optimal cut-off points were ≥ 28, ≥ 142, ≤ 76.73 for ISS, GTOS and Ps17, respectively.

Conclusion

Both ISS and GTOS scoring systems preformed equally in predicting 30-day mortality in traumatised elderly patients admitted to the intensive care unit, however neither were robust enough to utilise in clinical practise. The Ps17 performed more robustly, although was not developed for prognosticating on individual patients. Larger prospective studies are needed to validate these scoring systems in critically-ill elderly traumatised patients, which may help to facilitate early prognostication.

Trauma quality indicators: a way to identify attention points in the treatment of elderly trauma patients

PURPOSE

to trauma quality indicators as a tool to identify opportunities of improvement in elderly trauma patient's' treatment.

METHODS

prospective analysis of data collected between 2014-2015, and stored in the iTreg software (by Ecossistemas). Trauma victims, aged older than 60 years and trauma quality indicators were assessed, based on those supported by SBAIT in 2013: (F1) Acute subdural hematoma drainage after 4 hours from admission, in patients with GCS<9; (F2) emergency room transference without definitive airway and GCS <9; (F3) Re-intubation within 48 hours from extubation; (F4) Admission-laparotomy time greater than 60 min. in hemodynamically uinstable patients with abdominal bleeding; (F5) Unprogrammed reoperation; (F6) Laparotomy after 4 hours from admission; (F7) Unfixed femur diaphyseal fracture; (F8) Non-operative treatment for abdominal gunshot; (F9) Admission-tibial exposure fracture treatment time greater than 6 hours; (F10) Surgery after 24 from admission. The indicators, treatments, adverse effects and deaths were analyzed, using the SPSS software, and the chi-squared and Fisher tests were used to calculate the statistical relevance.

RESULTS

from the 92 cases, 36 (39,1%) had complications and 15 (16,3%) died. The adequate use of quality indicator's were substantially different among those who survived (was of 12%) compared to those who died (55,6%). The incidence of complications was of 77,8% (7/9) in patients with compromised indicators and 34,9% (28/83) in those without (p=0.017).

CONCLUSIONS

trauma quality indicators are directly related with the occurrence of complications and deaths, in elderly trauma patients.