Outcome Prediction after Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: External Validation of Two Established Prognostic Models in 1742 European Patients

Visualization of Cerebral Pressure Autoregulatory Insults in Traumatic Brain Injury

OBJECTIVES

The first aim was to investigate the combined effect of insult intensity and duration of the pressure reactivity index (PRx) and deviation from the autoregulatory cerebral perfusion pressure target (∆CPPopt = actual CPP - optimal CPP [CPPopt]) on outcome in traumatic brain injury. The second aim was to determine if PRx influenced the association between intracranial pressure (ICP), CPP, and ∆CPPopt with outcome.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Neurocritical care unit, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

PATIENTS

Five hundred fifty-three traumatic brain injury patients with ICP and arterial blood pressure monitoring and 6-month outcome data (Glasgow Outcome Scale [GOS]).

INTERVENTION

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The insult intensity (mm Hg or PRx coefficient) and duration (minutes) of ICP, PRx, CPP, and ∆CPPopt were correlated with GOS and visualized in heatmaps. In these plots, there was a transition from favorable to unfavorable outcome when PRx remained positive for 30 minutes and this was also the case for shorter durations when the intensity was higher. In a similar plot of ∆CPPopt, there was a gradual transition from favorable to unfavorable outcome when ∆CPPopt went below -5 mm Hg for 30-minute episodes of time and for shorter durations for more negative ∆CPPopt. Furthermore, the percentage of monitoring time with certain combinations of PRx with ICP, CPP, and ∆CPPopt were correlated with GOS and visualized in heatmaps. In the combined PRx/ICP heatmap, ICP above 20 mm Hg together with PRx above 0 correlated with unfavorable outcome. In a PRx/CPP heatmap, CPP below 70 mm Hg together with PRx above 0.2-0.4 correlated with unfavorable outcome. In the PRx-/∆CPPopt heatmap, ∆CPPopt below 0 together with PRx above 0.2-0.4 correlated with unfavorable outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intensities for longer durations of positive PRx and negative ∆CPPopt correlated with worse outcome. Elevated ICP, low CPP, and negative ∆CPPopt were particularly associated with worse outcomes when the cerebral pressure autoregulation was concurrently impaired.

Intracranial Pressure-Derived Cerebrovascular Reactivity Indices and Their Critical Thresholds: A Canadian High Resolution-Traumatic Brain Injury Validation Study

Current neurointensive care guidelines recommend intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) centered management for moderate-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) because of their demonstrated associations with patient outcome. Cerebrovascular reactivity metrics, such as the pressure reactivity index (PRx), pulse amplitude index (PAx), and RAC index, have also demonstrated significant prognostic capabilities with regard to outcome. However, critical thresholds for cerebrovascular reactivity indices have only been identified in two studies conducted at the same center. In this study, we aim to determine the critical thresholds of these metrics by leveraging a unique multi-center database. The study included a total of 354 patients from the CAnadian High-Resolution TBI (CAHR-TBI) Research Collaborative. Based on 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scores, patients were dichotomized into alive versus dead and favorable versus unfavorable. Chi-square values were then computed for incrementally increasing values of each physiological parameter of interest against outcome. The values that generated the greatest chi-squares for each parameter were considered to be the thresholds with the greatest outcome discriminatory capacity. To confirm that the identified thresholds provide prognostic utility, univariate and multivariable logistical regression analyses were performed adjusting for the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) variables. Through the chi-square analysis, a lower limit CPP threshold of 60 mm Hg and ICP thresholds of 18 mm Hg and 22 mm Hg were identified for both survival and favorable outcome predictions. For the cerebrovascular reactivity metrics, different thresholds were identified for the two outcome dichotomizations. For survival prediction, thresholds of 0.35, 0.25, and 0 were identified for PRx, PAx, and RAC, respectively. For favorable outcome prediction, thresholds of 0.325, 0.20, and 0.05 were found. Univariate logistical regression analysis demonstrated that the time spent above/below thresholds were associated with outcome. Further, multivariable logistical regression analysis found that percent time above/below the identified thresholds added additional variance to the IMPACT core model for predicting both survival and favorable outcome. In this study, we were able to validate the results of the previous two works as well as to reaffirm the ICP and CPP guidelines from the Brain Trauma Foundation (BTF) and the Seattle International Severe Traumatic Brain Injury Consensus Conference (SIBICC).

Considering the Importance of Personal and Injury Factors Influencing Outcome After Traumatic Brain Injury

OBJECTIVE

Given the high variability in traumatic brain injury (TBI) outcomes and relative lack of examination of the influence of noninjury factors on outcome, this study aimed to examine factors associated with functional outcome at 1 and 2 years after moderate to severe TBI, including both preinjury and injury-related factors.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

Inpatient hospital recruitment with outpatient follow-up at 1 and 2 years post injury.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals with moderate to severe TBI were recruited prospectively into a Longitudinal Head Injury Outcome Study. Of the eligible 3253 individuals who were eligible, 1899 participants consented to the study (N=1899).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Functional outcome was measured using the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E).

RESULTS

1476 participants (73.6% males) and 1365 participants (73% males) completed the GOS-E at 1 and 2 years post injury. They had a mean age at injury of 40 years and mean duration of post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) of 26 days. Good recovery, representing return to previous activities on the GOS-E (score 7-8), was present in 31% of participants at 1 year post injury and 33.5% at 2 years post injury. When predictor variables were entered into regression together, good outcome was significantly associated with not being from a culturally and linguistically diverse background and not having preinjury mental health or alcohol treatment, shorter PTA duration, and absence of limb injuries at both 1 and 2 years; higher education was also a significant predictor at 1 year post injury.

CONCLUSIONS

Alongside consideration of injury severity, understanding and addressing preinjury factors is important to maximize outcomes.

Cerebral Glucose Metabolism following TBI: Changes in Plasma Glucose, Glucose Transport and Alternative Pathways of Glycolysis-A Translational Narrative Review

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major public health concern with significant consequences across various domains. Following the primary event, secondary injuries compound the outcome after TBI, with disrupted glucose metabolism emerging as a relevant factor. This narrative review summarises the existing literature on post-TBI alterations in glucose metabolism. After TBI, the brain undergoes dynamic changes in brain glucose transport, including alterations in glucose transporters and kinetics, and disruptions in the blood-brain barrier (BBB). In addition, cerebral glucose metabolism transitions from a phase of hyperglycolysis to hypometabolism, with upregulation of alternative pathways of glycolysis. Future research should further explore optimal, and possibly personalised, glycaemic control targets in TBI patients, with GLP-1 analogues as promising therapeutic candidates. Furthermore, a more fundamental understanding of alterations in the activation of various pathways, such as the polyol and lactate pathway, could hold the key to improving outcomes following TBI.

Data-driven characterization of traumatic brain injury severity from clinical, neuroimaging, and blood-based indicators

The conventional clinical approach to characterizing traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) as mild, moderate, or severe using the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) total score has well-known limitations, prompting calls for more sophisticated strategies to characterize TBI. Here, we use item response theory (IRT) to develop a novel method for quantifying TBI severity that incorporates neuroimaging and blood-based biomarkers along with clinical measures. Within the multicenter Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in TBI (TRACK-TBI) study sample (N = 2545), we show that a set of 23 clinical, head computed tomography (CT), and blood-based biomarker variables familiar to clinicians and researchers index a common latent continuum of TBI severity. We illustrate how IRT can be used to identify the relative value of these features to estimate an individual's position along the TBI severity continuum. Finally, we show that TBI severity scores generated using this novel IRT-based method incrementally predict functional outcome over classic clinical (mild, moderate, severe) or International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) classification methods. Our findings directly inform ongoing international efforts to refine and deploy new pragmatic, empirically-supported strategies for characterizing TBI, while illustrating a strategy that may be useful to evolve staging systems for other diseases.

Comparative analysis of CRASH and IMPACT in predicting the outcome of 340 patients with traumatic brain injury

Background

Both the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and the Corticosteroid randomization after significant head injury (CRASH) models are globally acknowledged prognostic algorithms for assessing traumatic brain injury (TBI) outcomes. The aim of this study is to externalize the validation process and juxtapose the prognostic accuracy of the CRASH and IMPACT models in moderate-to-severe TBI patients in the Chinese population.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study encompassing a cohort of 340 adult TBI patients (aged > 18 years), presenting with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores ranging from 3 to 12. The data were accrued over 2 years (2020-2022). The primary endpoints were 14-day mortality rates and 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) scores. Analytical metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for discrimination and the Brier score for predictive precision were employed to quantitatively evaluate the model performance.

Results

Mortality rates at the 14-day and 6-month intervals, as well as the 6-month unfavorable GOS outcomes, were established to be 22.06, 40.29, and 65.59%, respectively. The IMPACT models had area under the curves (AUCs) of 0.873, 0.912, and 0.927 for the 6-month unfavorable GOS outcomes, with respective Brier scores of 0.14, 0.12, and 0.11. On the other hand, the AUCs associated with the six-month mortality were 0.883, 0.909, and 0.912, and the corresponding Brier scores were 0.15, 0.14, and 0.13, respectively. The CRASH models exhibited AUCs of 0.862 and 0.878 for the 6-month adverse outcomes, with uniform Brier scores of 0.18. The 14-day mortality rates had AUCs of 0.867 and 0.87, and corresponding Brier scores of 0.21 and 0.22, respectively.

Conclusion

Both the CRASH and IMPACT algorithms offer reliable prognostic estimations for patients suffering from craniocerebral injuries. However, compared to the CRASH model, the IMPACT model has superior predictive accuracy, albeit at the cost of increased computational intricacy.

Early Shared Decision-Making for Older Adults with Traumatic Brain Injury: Using Time-Limited Trials and Understanding Their Limitations

Older adults account for a disproportionate share of the morbidity and mortality after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Predicting functional and cognitive outcomes for individual older adults after TBI is challenging in the acute phase of injury. Given that neurologic recovery is possible and uncertain, life-sustaining therapy may be pursued initially, even if for some, there is a risk of survival to an undesired level of disability or dependence. Experts recommend early conversations about goals of care after TBI, but evidence-based guidelines for these discussions or for the optimal method for communicating prognosis are limited. The time-limited trial (TLT) model may be an effective strategy for managing prognostic uncertainty after TBI. TLTs can provide a framework for early management: specific treatments or procedures are used for a defined period of time while monitoring for an agreed-upon outcome. Outcome measures, including signs of worsening and improvement, are defined at the outset of the trial. In this Viewpoint article, we discuss the use of TLTs for older adults with TBI, their potential benefits, and current challenges to their application. Three main barriers limit the implementation of TLTs in these scenarios: inadequate models for prognostication; cognitive biases faced by clinicians and surrogate decision-makers, which may contribute to prognostic discordance; and ambiguity regarding appropriate endpoints for the TLT. Further study is needed to understand clinician behaviors and surrogate preferences for prognostic communication and how to optimally integrate TLTs into the care of older adults with TBI.

Intracranial Pressure Monitoring and Treatment Thresholds in Acute Neural Injury: A Narrative Review of the Historical Achievements, Current State, and Future Perspectives

Since its introduction in the 1960s, intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring has become an indispensable tool in neurocritical care practice and a key component of the management of moderate/severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). The primary utility of ICP monitoring is to guide therapeutic interventions aimed at maintaining physiological ICP and preventing intracranial hypertension. The rationale for such ICP maintenance is to prevent secondary brain injury arising from brain herniation and inadequate cerebral blood flow. There exists a large body of evidence indicating that elevated ICP is associated with mortality and that aggressive ICP control protocols improve outcomes in severe TBI patients. Therefore, current management guidelines recommend a cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) target range of 60-70 mm Hg and an ICP threshold of >20 or >22 mm Hg, beyond which therapeutic intervention should be initiated. Though our ability to achieve these thresholds has drastically improved over the past decades, there has been little to no change in the mortality and morbidity associated with moderate-severe TBI. This is a result of the "one treatment fits all" dogma of current guideline-based care that fails to take individual phenotype into account. The way forward in moderate-severe TBI care is through the development of continuously derived individualized ICP thresholds. This narrative review covers the topic of ICP monitoring in TBI care, including historical context/achievements, current monitoring technologies and indications, treatment methods, associations with patient outcome and multi-modal cerebral physiology, present controversies surrounding treatment thresholds, and future perspectives on personalized approaches to ICP-directed therapy.

Functional Recovery, Symptoms, and Quality of Life 1 to 5 Years After Traumatic Brain Injury

Importance

Many level I trauma center patients experience clinical sequelae at 1 year following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Longer-term outcome data are needed to develop better monitoring and rehabilitation services.

Objective

To examine functional recovery, TBI-related symptoms, and quality of life from 1 to 5 years postinjury.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study enrolled trauma patients across 18 US level I trauma centers between 2014 and 2018. Eligible participants were enrolled within 24 hours of injury and followed up to 5 years postinjury. Data were analyzed January 2023.

Exposures

Mild TBI (mTBI), moderate-severe TBI (msTBI), or orthopedic traumatic controls (OTC).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Functional independence (Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended [GOSE] score 5 or higher), complete functional recovery (GOSE score, 8), better (ie, lower) TBI-related symptom burden (Rivermead Post Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire score of 15 or lower), and better (ie, higher) health-related quality of life (Quality of Life After Brain Injury Scale-Overall Scale score 52 or higher); mortality was analyzed as a secondary outcome.

Results

A total 1196 patients were included in analysis (mean [SD] age, 40.8 [16.9] years; 781 [65%] male; 158 [13%] Black, 965 [81%] White). mTBI and OTC groups demonstrated stable, high rates of functional independence (98% to 100% across time). While odds of independence were lower among msTBI survivors, the majority were independent at 1 year (72%), and this proportion increased over time (80% at 5 years; group × year, P = .005; independence per year: odds ratio [OR] for msTBI, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58; OR for mTBI, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.64-1.03). For other outcomes, group differences at 1 year remained stable over time (group × year, P ≥ .44). Odds of complete functional recovery remained lower for persons with mTBI vs OTC (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.28-0.56) and lower for msTBI vs mTBI (OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.24-0.48). Odds of better TBI-related symptom burden and quality of life were similar for both TBI subgroups and lower than OTCs. Mortality between 1 and 5 years was higher for msTBI (5.5%) than mTBI (1.5%) and OTC (0.7%; P = .02).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, patients with previous msTBI displayed increased independence over 5 years; msTBI was also associated with increased mortality. These findings, in combination with the persistently elevated rates of unfavorable outcomes in mTBI vs controls imply that more monitoring and rehabilitation are needed for TBI.

Traumatic brain injury: progress and challenges in prevention, clinical care, and research

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) has the highest incidence of all common neurological disorders, and poses a substantial public health burden. TBI is increasingly documented not only as an acute condition but also as a chronic disease with long-term consequences, including an increased risk of late-onset neurodegeneration. The first Lancet Neurology Commission on TBI, published in 2017, called for a concerted effort to tackle the global health problem posed by TBI. Since then, funding agencies have supported research both in high-income countries (HICs) and in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In November 2020, the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of WHO, passed resolution WHA73.10 for global actions on epilepsy and other neurological disorders, and WHO launched the Decade for Action on Road Safety plan in 2021. New knowledge has been generated by large observational studies, including those conducted under the umbrella of the International Traumatic Brain Injury Research (InTBIR) initiative, established as a collaboration of funding agencies in 2011. InTBIR has also provided a huge stimulus to collaborative research in TBI and has facilitated participation of global partners. The return on investment has been high, but many needs of patients with TBI remain unaddressed. This update to the 2017 Commission presents advances and discusses persisting and new challenges in prevention, clinical care, and research.

In LMICs, the occurrence of TBI is driven by road traffic incidents, often involving vulnerable road users such as motorcyclists and pedestrians. In HICs, most TBI is caused by falls, particularly in older people (aged ≥65 years), who often have comorbidities. Risk factors such as frailty and alcohol misuse provide opportunities for targeted prevention actions. Little evidence exists to inform treatment of older patients, who have been commonly excluded from past clinical trials—consequently, appropriate evidence is urgently required. Although increasing age is associated with worse outcomes from TBI, age should not dictate limitations in therapy. However, patients injured by low-energy falls (who are mostly older people) are about 50% less likely to receive critical care or emergency interventions, compared with those injured by high-energy mechanisms, such as road traffic incidents.

Mild TBI, defined as a Glasgow Coma sum score of 13–15, comprises most of the TBI cases (over 90%) presenting to hospital. Around 50% of adult patients with mild TBI presenting to hospital do not recover to pre-TBI levels of health by 6 months after their injury. Fewer than 10% of patients discharged after presenting to an emergency department for TBI in Europe currently receive follow-up. Structured follow-up after mild TBI should be considered good practice, and urgent research is needed to identify which patients with mild TBI are at risk for incomplete recovery.

The selection of patients for CT is an important triage decision in mild TBI since it allows early identification of lesions that can trigger hospital admission or life-saving surgery. Current decision making for deciding on CT is inefficient, with 90–95% of scanned patients showing no intracranial injury but being subjected to radiation risks. InTBIR studies have shown that measurement of blood-based biomarkers adds value to previously proposed clinical decision rules, holding the potential to improve efficiency while reducing radiation exposure. Increased concentrations of biomarkers in the blood of patients with a normal presentation CT scan suggest structural brain damage, which is seen on MR scanning in up to 30% of patients with mild TBI. Advanced MRI, including diffusion tensor imaging and volumetric analyses, can identify additional injuries not detectable by visual inspection of standard clinical MR images. Thus, the absence of CT abnormalities does not exclude structural damage—an observation relevant to litigation procedures, to management of mild TBI, and when CT scans are insufficient to explain the severity of the clinical condition.

Although blood-based protein biomarkers have been shown to have important roles in the evaluation of TBI, most available assays are for research use only. To date, there is only one vendor of such assays with regulatory clearance in Europe and the USA with an indication to rule out the need for CT imaging for patients with suspected TBI. Regulatory clearance is provided for a combination of biomarkers, although evidence is accumulating that a single biomarker can perform as well as a combination. Additional biomarkers and more clinical-use platforms are on the horizon, but cross-platform harmonisation of results is needed. Health-care efficiency would benefit from diversity in providers.

In the intensive care setting, automated analysis of blood pressure and intracranial pressure with calculation of derived parameters can help individualise management of TBI. Interest in the identification of subgroups of patients who might benefit more from some specific therapeutic approaches than others represents a welcome shift towards precision medicine. Comparative-effectiveness research to identify best practice has delivered on expectations for providing evidence in support of best practices, both in adult and paediatric patients with TBI.

Progress has also been made in improving outcome assessment after TBI. Key instruments have been translated into up to 20 languages and linguistically validated, and are now internationally available for clinical and research use. TBI affects multiple domains of functioning, and outcomes are affected by personal characteristics and life-course events, consistent with a multifactorial bio-psycho-socio-ecological model of TBI, as presented in the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) 2022 report. Multidimensional assessment is desirable and might be best based on measurement of global functional impairment. More work is required to develop and implement recommendations for multidimensional assessment. Prediction of outcome is relevant to patients and their families, and can facilitate the benchmarking of quality of care. InTBIR studies have identified new building blocks (eg, blood biomarkers and quantitative CT analysis) to refine existing prognostic models. Further improvement in prognostication could come from MRI, genetics, and the integration of dynamic changes in patient status after presentation.

Neurotrauma researchers traditionally seek translation of their research findings through publications, clinical guidelines, and industry collaborations. However, to effectively impact clinical care and outcome, interactions are also needed with research funders, regulators, and policy makers, and partnership with patient organisations. Such interactions are increasingly taking place, with exemplars including interactions with the All Party Parliamentary Group on Acquired Brain Injury in the UK, the production of the NASEM report in the USA, and interactions with the US Food and Drug Administration. More interactions should be encouraged, and future discussions with regulators should include debates around consent from patients with acute mental incapacity and data sharing. Data sharing is strongly advocated by funding agencies. From January 2023, the US National Institutes of Health will require upload of research data into public repositories, but the EU requires data controllers to safeguard data security and privacy regulation. The tension between open data-sharing and adherence to privacy regulation could be resolved by cross-dataset analyses on federated platforms, with the data remaining at their original safe location. Tools already exist for conventional statistical analyses on federated platforms, however federated machine learning requires further development. Support for further development of federated platforms, and neuroinformatics more generally, should be a priority.

This update to the 2017 Commission presents new insights and challenges across a range of topics around TBI: epidemiology and prevention (section 1 ); system of care (section 2 ); clinical management (section 3 ); characterisation of TBI (section 4 ); outcome assessment (section 5 ); prognosis (Section 6 ); and new directions for acquiring and implementing evidence (section 7 ). Table 1 summarises key messages from this Commission and proposes recommendations for the way forward to advance research and clinical management of TBI.

Cerebral metabolic derangements following traumatic brain injury

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Outcome following traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains variable, and derangements in cerebral metabolism are a common finding in patients with poor outcome. This review compares our understanding of cerebral metabolism in health with derangements seen following TBI.

RECENT FINDINGS

Ischemia is common within the first 24 h of injury and inconsistently detected by bedside monitoring. Metabolic derangements can also result from tissue hypoxia in the absence of ischemic reductions in blood flow due to microvascular ischemia and mitochondrial dysfunction. Glucose delivery across the injured brain is dependent on blood glucose and regional cerebral blood flow, and is an important contributor to derangements in glucose metabolism. Alternative energy substrates such as lactate, ketone bodies and succinate that may support mitochondrial function, and can be utilized when glucose availability is low, have been studied following TBI but require further investigation.

SUMMARY

Mitochondrial dysfunction and the use of alternative energy substrates are potential therapeutic targets, but improved understanding of the causes, impact and significance of metabolic derangements in clinical TBI are needed. Maintaining adequate oxygen and glucose delivery across the injured brain may accelerate the recovery of mitochondrial function and cerebral energy metabolism and remain important management targets.

Prognostic Models in Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

This review aimed to analyze the results of investigations that performed external validation or that compared prognostic models to identify the models and their variations that showed the best performance in predicting mortality, survival, and unfavorable outcome after severe traumatic brain injury. Pubmed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Google Scholar, TROVE, and Open Grey databases were searched. A total of 1616 studies were identified and screened, and 15 studies were subsequently included for analysis after applying the selection criteria. The Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) and International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in Traumatic Brain Injury (IMPACT) models were the most externally validated among studies of severe traumatic brain injury. The results of the review showed that most publications encountered an area under the curve ≥ 0.70. The area under the curve meta-analysis showed similarity between the CRASH and IMPACT models and their variations for predicting mortality and unfavorable outcomes. Calibration results showed that the variations of CRASH and IMPACT models demonstrated adequate calibration in most studies for both outcomes, but without a clear indication of uncertainties in the evaluations of these models. Based on the results of this meta-analysis, the choice of prognostic models for clinical application may depend on the availability of predictors, characteristics of the population, and trauma care services.

Management of moderate to severe traumatic brain injury: an update for the intensivist

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains one of the most fatal and debilitating conditions in the world. Current clinical management in severe TBI patients is mainly concerned with reducing secondary insults and optimizing the balance between substrate delivery and consumption. Over the past decades, multimodality monitoring has become more widely available, and clinical management protocols have been published that recommend potential interventions to correct pathophysiological derangements. Even while evidence from randomized clinical trials is still lacking for many of the recommended interventions, these protocols and algorithms can be useful to define a clear standard of therapy where novel interventions can be added or be compared to. Over the past decade, more attention has been paid to holistic management, in which hemodynamic, respiratory, inflammatory or coagulation disturbances are detected and treated accordingly. Considerable variability with regards to the trajectories of recovery exists. Even while most of the recovery occurs in the first months after TBI, substantial changes may still occur in a later phase. Neuroprognostication is challenging in these patients, where a risk of self-fulfilling prophecies is a matter of concern. The present article provides a comprehensive and practical review of the current best practice in clinical management and long-term outcomes of moderate to severe TBI in adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

Serum metabolome associated with severity of acute traumatic brain injury

Complex metabolic disruption is a crucial aspect of the pathophysiology of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Associations between this and systemic metabolism and their potential prognostic value are poorly understood. Here, we aimed to describe the serum metabolome (including lipidome) associated with acute TBI within 24 h post-injury, and its relationship to severity of injury and patient outcome. We performed a comprehensive metabolomics study in a cohort of 716 patients with TBI and non-TBI reference patients (orthopedic, internal medicine, and other neurological patients) from the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) cohort. We identified panels of metabolites specifically associated with TBI severity and patient outcomes. Choline phospholipids (lysophosphatidylcholines, ether phosphatidylcholines and sphingomyelins) were inversely associated with TBI severity and were among the strongest predictors of TBI patient outcomes, which was further confirmed in a separate validation dataset of 558 patients. The observed metabolic patterns may reflect different pathophysiological mechanisms, including protective changes of systemic lipid metabolism aiming to maintain lipid homeostasis in the brain.

Does poor methodological quality of prediction modeling studies translate to poor model performance? An illustration in traumatic brain injury

BACKGROUND

Prediction modeling studies often have methodological limitations, which may compromise model performance in new patients and settings. We aimed to examine the relation between methodological quality of model development studies and their performance at external validation.

METHODS

We systematically searched for externally validated multivariable prediction models that predict functional outcome following moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Risk of bias and applicability of development studies was assessed with the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). Each model was rated for its presentation with sufficient detail to be used in practice. Model performance was described in terms of discrimination (AUC), and calibration. Delta AUC (dAUC) was calculated to quantify the percentage change in discrimination between development and validation for all models. Generalized estimation equations (GEE) were used to examine the relation between methodological quality and dAUC while controlling for clustering.

RESULTS

We included 54 publications, presenting ten development studies of 18 prediction models, and 52 external validation studies, including 245 unique validations. Two development studies (four models) were found to have low risk of bias (RoB). The other eight publications (14 models) showed high or unclear RoB. The median dAUC was positive in low RoB models (dAUC 8%, [IQR - 4% to 21%]) and negative in high RoB models (dAUC - 18%, [IQR - 43% to 2%]). The GEE showed a larger average negative change in discrimination for high RoB models (- 32% (95% CI: - 48 to - 15) and unclear RoB models (- 13% (95% CI: - 16 to - 10)) compared to that seen in low RoB models.

CONCLUSION

Lower methodological quality at model development associates with poorer model performance at external validation. Our findings emphasize the importance of adherence to methodological principles and reporting guidelines in prediction modeling studies.

A Precision Medicine Agenda in Traumatic Brain Injury

Traumatic brain injury remains a leading cause of death and disability across the globe. Substantial uncertainty in outcome prediction continues to be the rule notwithstanding the existing prediction models. Additionally, despite very promising preclinical data, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of neuroprotective strategies in moderate and severe TBI have failed to demonstrate significant treatment effects. Better predictive models are needed, as the existing validated ones are more useful in prognosticating poor outcome and do not include biomarkers, genomics, proteonomics, metabolomics, etc. Invasive neuromonitoring long believed to be a "game changer" in the care of TBI patients have shown mixed results, and the level of evidence to support its widespread use remains insufficient. This is due in part to the extremely heterogenous nature of the disease regarding its etiology, pathology and severity. Currently, the diagnosis of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in the acute setting is centered on neurological examination and neuroimaging tools such as CT scanning and MRI, and its treatment has been largely confronted using a "one-size-fits-all" approach, that has left us with many unanswered questions. Precision medicine is an innovative approach for TBI treatment that considers individual variability in genes, environment, and lifestyle and has expanded across the medical fields. In this article, we briefly explore the field of precision medicine in TBI including biomarkers for therapeutic decision-making, multimodal neuromonitoring, and genomics.

Dynamic Temporal Relationship Between Autonomic Function and Cerebrovascular Reactivity in Moderate/Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

There has been little change in morbidity and mortality in traumatic brain injury (TBI) in the last 25 years. However, literature has emerged linking impaired cerebrovascular reactivity (a surrogate of cerebral autoregulation) with poor outcomes post-injury. Thus, cerebrovascular reactivity (derived through the pressure reactivity index; PRx) is emerging as an important continuous measure. Furthermore, recent literature indicates that autonomic dysfunction may drive impaired cerebrovascular reactivity in moderate/severe TBI. Thus, to improve our understanding of this association, we assessed the physiological relationship between PRx and the autonomic variables of heart rate variability (HRV), blood pressure variability (BPV), and baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) using time-series statistical methodologies. These methodologies include vector autoregressive integrative moving average (VARIMA) impulse response function analysis, Granger causality, and hierarchical clustering. Granger causality testing displayed inconclusive results, where PRx and the autonomic variables had varying bidirectional relationships. Evaluating the temporal profile of the impulse response function plots demonstrated that the autonomic variables of BRS, ratio of low/high frequency of HRV and very low frequency HRV all had a strong relation to PRx, indicating that the sympathetic autonomic response may be more closely linked to cerebrovascular reactivity, then other variables. Finally, BRS was consistently associated with PRx, possibly demonstrating a deeper relationship to PRx than other autonomic measures. Taken together, cerebrovascular reactivity and autonomic response are interlinked, with a bidirectional impact between cerebrovascular reactivity and circulatory autonomics. However, this work is exploratory and preliminary, with further study required to extract and confirm any underlying relationships.

Impact of Age and Biological Sex on Cerebrovascular Reactivity in Adult Moderate/Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: An Exploratory Analysis

Age and biological sex are two potential important modifiers of cerebrovascular reactivity post-traumatic brain injury (TBI) requiring close evaluation for potential subgroup responses. The goal of this study was to provide a preliminary exploratory analysis of the impact of age and biological sex on measures of cerebrovascular function in moderate/severe TBI. Forty-nine patients from the prospectively maintained TBI database at the University of Manitoba with archived high-frequency digital cerebral physiology were evaluated. Cerebrovascular reactivity indices were derived as follows: PRx (correlation between intracranial pressure [ICP] and mean arterial pressure [MAP]), PAx (correlation between pulse amplitude of ICP [AMP] and MAP), and RAC (correlation between AMP and cerebral perfusion pressure [CPP]). Time above clinically significant thresholds for each index was calculated over different periods of the acute intensive care unit stay. The association between PRx, PAx, and RAC measures with age was assessed using linear regression, and an age trichotomization scheme (<40, 40-60, >60) using Kruskal-Wallis testing. Similarly, association with biological sex was tested using Mann-Whitney U testing. Biological sex did not demonstrate an impact on any measures of cerebrovascular reactivity. Linear regression between age and PAx and RAC demonstrated a statistically significant positive linear relationship. Median PAx and RAC measures between trichotomized age categories demonstrated statistically significant increases with advancing age. The PRx failed to demonstrate any statistically significant relationship with age in this cohort, suggesting that in elderly patients with controlled ICP, PAx and RAC may be better metrics for detecting impaired cerebrovascular reactivity. Biological sex appears to not be associated with differences in cerebrovascular reactivity in this cohort. The PRx performed the worst in detecting impaired cerebrovascular reactivity in those with advanced age, where PAx and RAC appear to have excelled. Future work is required to validate these findings and explore the utility of different cerebrovascular reactivity indices.

Integrative Neuroinformatics for Precision Prognostication and Personalized Therapeutics in Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

Despite changes in guideline-based management of moderate/severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) over the preceding decades, little impact on mortality and morbidity have been seen. This argues against the “one-treatment fits all” approach to such management strategies. With this, some preliminary advances in the area of personalized medicine in TBI care have displayed promising results. However, to continue transitioning toward individually-tailored care, we require integration of complex “-omics” data sets. The past few decades have seen dramatic increases in the volume of complex multi-modal data in moderate and severe TBI care. Such data includes serial high-fidelity multi-modal characterization of the cerebral physiome, serum/cerebrospinal fluid proteomics, admission genetic profiles, and serial advanced neuroimaging modalities. Integrating these complex and serially obtained data sets, with patient baseline demographics, treatment information and clinical outcomes over time, can be a daunting task for the treating clinician. Within this review, we highlight the current status of such multi-modal omics data sets in moderate/severe TBI, current limitations to the utilization of such data, and a potential path forward through employing integrative neuroinformatic approaches, which are applied in other neuropathologies. Such advances are positioned to facilitate the transition to precision prognostication and inform a top-down approach to the development of personalized therapeutics in moderate/severe TBI.

Selection of CT variables and prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with traumatic brain injury

Background

Traumatic brain injuries (TBI) are associated with high risk of morbidity and mortality. Early outcome prediction in patients with TBI require reliable data input and stable prognostic models. The aim of this investigation was to analyze different CT classification systems and prognostic calculators in a representative population of TBI-patients, with known outcomes, in a neurointensive care unit (NICU), to identify the most suitable CT scoring system for continued research.

Materials and methods

We retrospectively included 158 consecutive patients with TBI admitted to the NICU at a level 1 trauma center in Sweden from 2012 to 2016. Baseline data on admission was recorded, CT scans were reviewed, and patient outcome one year after trauma was assessed according to Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS). The Marshall classification, Rotterdam scoring system, Helsinki CT score and Stockholm CT score were tested, in addition to the IMPACT and CRASH prognostic calculators. The results were then compared with the actual outcomes.

Results

Glasgow Coma Scale score on admission was 3–8 in 38%, 9–13 in 27.2%, and 14–15 in 34.8% of the patients. GOS after one year showed good recovery in 15.8%, moderate disability in 27.2%, severe disability in 24.7%, vegetative state in 1.3% and death in 29.7%. When adding the variables from the IMPACT base model to the CT scoring systems, the Stockholm CT score yielded the strongest relationship to actual outcome. The results from the prognostic calculators IMPACT and CRASH were divided into two subgroups of mortality (percentages); ≤50% (favorable outcome) and > 50% (unfavorable outcome). This yielded favorable IMPACT and CRASH scores in 54.4 and 38.0% respectively.

Conclusion

The Stockholm CT score and the Helsinki score yielded the closest relationship between the models and the actual outcomes in this consecutive patient series, representative of a NICU TBI-population. Furthermore, the Stockholm CT score yielded the strongest overall relationship when adding variables from the IMPACT base model and would be our method of choice for continued research when using any of the current available CT score models.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13049-021-00901-6.