A simple prognostic scoring system for patients receiving transarterial embolisation for hepatocellular cancer

Development of a prognostic scoring system for hepatic vena cava Budd-Chiari syndrome with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a serious complication of hepatic vena cava Budd-Chiari syndrome (HVC-BCS) that significantly reduces the survival time of patients. Our study aimed to analyze the prognostic factors influencing the survival of HVC-BCS patients with HCC and to develop a prognostic scoring system.

METHODS

The clinical and follow-up data of 64 HVC-BCS patients with HCC who received invasive treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between January 2015 and December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to analyze the survival curve of patients and the difference in prognoses between the groups. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to analyze the influence of biochemical, tumor, and etiological characteristics on the total survival time of patients, and a new prognostic scoring system was developed according to the regression coefficients of the independent predictors in the statistical model. The prediction efficiency was evaluated using the time-dependent receiver operating characteristics curve and concordance index.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that serum albumin level < 34 g/L [hazard ratio (HR) = 4.207, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.816-8.932, P = 0.001], maximum tumor diameter > 7 cm (HR = 8.623, 95% CI: 3.771-19.715, P < 0.001), and inferior vena cava stenosis (HR = 3.612, 95% CI: 1.646-7.928, P = 0.001) were independent predictors of survival. A prognostic scoring system was developed according to the above-mentioned independent predictors, and patients were classified into grades A, B, C and D. Significant differences in survival were found among the four groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This study successfully developed a prognostic scoring system for HVC-BCS patients with HCC, which is helpful for clinical evaluation of patient prognosis.

Combination and Optimal Sequencing of Systemic and Locoregional Therapies in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Proceedings from the Society of Interventional Radiology Foundation Research Consensus Panel

Hepatocellular carcinoma, historically, has had a poor prognosis with very few systemic options. Furthermore, most patients at diagnosis are not surgical candidates. Therefore, locoregional therapy (LRT) has been widely used, with strong data supporting its use. Over the last 15 years, there has been progress in the available systemic agents. This has led to the updated Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) algorithm's inclusion of these new systemic agents, with advocacy of earlier usage in those who progress on LRT or have tumor characteristics that make them less likely to benefit from LRT. However, neither the adjunct of LRT nor the specific sequencing of combination therapies is addressed directly. This Research Consensus Panel sought to highlight research priorities pertaining to the combination and optimal sequencing of LRT and systemic therapy, assessing the greatest needs across BCLC stages.

The prognostic nutritional index as a predictor of efficacy and early recurrence for adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Postoperative adjuvant transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) can prevent recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in certain patients. This study aimed to identify the potential beneficiaries of adjuvant TACE.

METHODS

477 patients who underwent curative resection for HCC were enrolled in this retrospectively cohort study. The trajectory of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) during the perioperative period was fitted using a latent-class growth mixed model. The association between adjuvant TACE and recurrence-free survival in each PNI group was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier curve. Furthermore, Cox regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors for early recurrence after adjuvant TACE and develop a nomogram model.

RESULTS

Patients in the PNI group III had a high risk of recurrence and could benefit from adjuvant TACE (P = 0.009). The prognostic prediction model for adjuvant TACE (PAT) incorporated eight variables (PNI, tumor size, tumor number, microvascular invasion, sex, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, and degree of differentiation). Patients with PAT score >330 and 235-330 had significantly higher recurrence rates than those with PAT score <235 (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

PNI may help guide the selection of adjuvant TACE beneficiaries. PAT demonstrated a high accuracy in predicting the prognosis of patients who underwent postoperative TACE.

Evaluation of models to predict prognosis in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with TACE combined with apatinib

BACKGROUND

The HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scores have been substantiated as reliable prognostic markers in patients presenting with intermediate and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) treatment. Given this premise, our research aims to assess the predictive efficacy of these models in patients with intermediate and advanced HCC receiving a combination of TACE and Apatinib. Additionally, we have conducted a meticulous comparative analysis of these four scoring systems to discern their respective predictive capacities and efficacies in combined therapy.

METHODS

Performing a retrospective analysis on the clinical data from 200 patients with intermediate and advanced HCC, we studied those who received TACE combined with Apatinib at the First Affiliated Hospital of the University of Science and Technology of China between June 2018 and December 2022. To identify the factors affecting survival, the study performed univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, with calculations of four different scores: HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI. Lastly, Harrell's C-index was employed to compare the prognostic abilities of these scores.

RESULTS

Cox proportional hazards model results revealed that the ALBI score, presence of portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT, )and tumor size are independent determinants of prognostic survival. The Kaplan-Meier analyses showed significant differences in survival rates among patients classified by the HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scoring methods. Of the evaluated systems, the HAP scoring demonstrated greater prognostic precision, with a Harrell's C-index of 0.742, surpassing the alternative models (P < 0.05). In addition, an analysis of the area under the AU-ROC curve confirms the remarkable superiority of the HAP score in predicting short-term survival outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms the predictive value of HAP, Six-and-Twelve, Up to Seven, and ALBI scores in intermediate to advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving combined Transarterial Chemoembolization (TACE) and Apatinib therapy. Notably, the HAP model excels in predicting outcomes for this specific HCC subgroup.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Patients Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization for Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy

Purpose

This study aims to establish a prognostic nomogram for patients who underwent transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy.

Patients and Methods

Patients who underwent TACE for recurrent early- and middle-stage HCC after hepatectomy between 2009.01 and 2015.12 were included. Enrolled patients were randomly divided into training (n=345) and validation (n=173) cohorts according to a computer-generated randomized number. Independent factors for overall survival (OS) were determined and included in the nomogram based on the univariate and multivariate analyses of the training group. The nomogram was validated and compared to other prognostic models. Discriminative ability and predictive accuracy were determined using the Harrell C index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and calibration curve.

Results

The final nomogram was established based on four parameters including resection-to-TACE time interval, recurrent tumor diameter, recurrent tumor number, and AFP level. The C-indexes of the nomogram for predicting OS were 0.67 (95% CI 0.63-0.70) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.74) in the training and validation cohort respectively. The AUROCs for predicting the 1-year, 2-year and 3-year OS based on the nomogram were also superior to those of the other models. The calibration curve for 3-year survival showed a high congruence between the predicted and actual survival probabilities. According to the scores calculated by the nomogram, patients were stratified into three subgroups: high-risk (scoring ≥53 points), middle-risk (scoring ≥26 and <53 points), and low-risk (scoring <26 points) subgroups with a median OS of 10.1 (95% CI 0.63-0.70), 20.3 (95% CI 17.5-22.5) and 47.0 (95% CI 34.2-59.8) months, respectively.

Conclusion

The proposed nomogram served as a new tool to predict individual survival in patients who underwent TACE for recurrent HCC after hepatectomy, with favorable performance and discrimination. For high-risk patients, treatment should be optimized beyond TACE alone based on the nomogram.

The TAE score predicts prognosis of unresectable HCC patients treated with TACE plus lenvatinib with PD-1 inhibitors

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Transcatheter arterial chemoembolization combined with lenvatinib and PD-1 inhibitors (triple therapy) exhibits promising efficacy for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC). We aimed to evaluate the prognosis of patients with uHCC who received triple therapy and develop a prognostic scoring model to identify patients who benefit the most from triple therapy.

METHODS

A total of 246 patients with uHCC who received triple therapy at eight centers were included and assigned to the training and validation cohorts. Prognosis was evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier curves. The prognostic model was developed by utilizing predictors of overall survival (OS), which were identified through the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, the 3-year OS was 52.0%, with a corresponding progression-free survival (PFS) of 30.6%. The median PFS was 13.2 months [95% confidence interval, 9.7-16.7]. Three variables (total bilirubin ≥ 17 μmol/L, alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/mL, and extrahepatic metastasis) were predictors of poor survival and were used for developing a prognostic model (TAE score). The 2-year OS rates in the favorable (0 points), intermediate (1 point), and dismal groups (2-3 points) were 96.9%, 61.4%, and 11.4%, respectively (p < 0.001). The PFS was also stratified according to the TAE score. These findings were confirmed in an external validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Triple therapy showed encouraging clinical outcomes, and the TAE score aids in identifying patients who would benefit the most from triple therapy.

A refined prediction model for survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization

Background/Aims

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is widely performed as a major treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, and there is a need to stratify patients for whom the most benefit from the treatment. This study aimed to develop a refined prediction model for overall survival (OS) in patients undergoing TACE as a first-line treatment in a large cohort and validate its performance.

Methods

A total of 2,632 patients with HCC of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage A or B who underwent TACE between 2008 and 2017 were enrolled. The patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 1,304) or a validation cohort (n = 1,328). Independent predictors of OS were used to develop a prediction model.

Results

The median age of patients in the entire cohort was 63 years, with the majority having hepatitis B virus (56.6%) and being classified as Child-Pugh class A (82.4%). We developed a new prognostic model, called the TACE-prognostic (TP) score, based on tumor burden (sum of the largest tumor diameter and tumor number), alpha-fetoprotein, and Albumin-Bilirubin grade. Patients were classified into five risk groups according to TP scores, with median survival significantly differentiated in both training and validation cohorts (P < 0.001). The new model consistently outperformed other currently available models in both the training and validation cohorts.

Conclusion

This newly developed TP scoring system has the potential to be a useful tool in identifying ideal candidates of TACE and predicting OS with favorable performance and discrimination. However, further external validation is needed to confirm its effectiveness.

Postoperative subphenotypes modified the hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic score: A novel smHAP-II nomogram

Background: Three subphenotypes were identified for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) after frontline transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). This study aimed to develop an individual smHAP-Ⅱ nomogram for uHCC patients after TACE. Methods: Between January 2007 to December 2016, 1517 uHCC patients undergoing TACE were included from four hospitals in China (derivation cohort: 597 cases; validation cohort: 920 cases). Multivariable Cox proportion regression analysis was used to develop a nomogram, incorporating postoperative subphenotypes (Phenotype 1, 2, 3) and HAP score (Score 0 to 4). The model was validated by a 1000-time bootstrap resampling procedure. The performance of the model was compared with existing ones by Harrell's C-index and Area Under Curve (AUC). Results: Postoperative subphenotypes modified the HAP score (smHAP-Ⅱ nomogram) was developed and validated, with the Harrell's C-index of the nomogram was 0.679 (SD: 0.029) for the derivation cohort and 0.727(SD:0.029) for the external cohort. The area under curves of the nomogram for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.750, 0.710, and 0.732 for the derivation cohort, respectively (0.789, 0.762, and 0.715 for the external cohort). In the calibration curves stratified by treatment after TACE, the lines for re-TACE and stop-TACE cross at 0.23, indicating that patients with a 3-year predicted survival >23% would not benefit from TACE. Conclusions: The addition of postoperative subphenotypes significantly improved the prognostic performance. The smHAP-Ⅱ nomogram can be used for accurate prognostication and selection of optimal candidates for TACE, with the value to guide sequential treatment strategy.

Construction of a prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization treatment based on the Tumor Burden Score

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who undergo transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) may have varied outcomes based on their liver function and tumor burden diversity. This study aims to assess the prognostic significance of the tumor burden score (TBS) in these patients and develop a prognostic model for their overall survival.

METHODS

The study involved a retrospective analysis of 644 newly diagnosed HCC patients undergoing TACE treatment. The individuals were assigned randomly to a training cohort (n = 452) and a validation cohort (n = 192). We utilized a multivariate Cox proportional risk model to identify independent preoperative predictive factors. We then evaluated model performance using the area under the curve (AUC), consistency index (c-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) methods.

RESULTS

The multivariate analysis revealed four prognostic factors associated with overall survival: Tumor Burden Score, Tumor Extent, Types of portal vein invasion (PVI), and Child-Pugh score. The total score was calculated based on these factors. The model demonstrated strong discriminative ability with high AUC values and c-index, providing high net clinical benefits for patients. Based on the model's scoring results, patients were categorized into high, medium, and low-risk groups. These results were validated in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The tumor burden score shows promise as a viable alternative prognostic indicator for assessing tumor burden in cases of HCC. The new prognostic model can place patients in one of three groups, which will estimate their individual outcomes. For high-risk patients, it is suggested to consider alternative treatment options or provide the best supportive care, as they may not benefit significantly from TACE treatment.

Transarterial Chemoembolization with Epirubicin-Loaded Microspheres for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Prospective, Single-Arm, Multicenter, Phase 2 Study (STOPPER Trial)

PURPOSE

While the role of drug-eluting beads transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is established, questions regarding appropriate bead size for use in patients remain. This trial evaluated the effectiveness and safety of DEB-TACE using small-size (≤ 100 μm) microspheres loaded with epirubicin.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective, single-arm, multicenter study enrolled patients diagnosed with HCC who underwent DEB-TACE using 40 (range, 30-50), 75 (range, 60-90), or 100 (range, 75-125) μm epirubicin-loaded microspheres (TANDEM microspheres, Varian Medical). Bead size was at the discretion of treating physicians and based on tumor size and/or vascular structure. The primary outcome measure was 6-month objective response rate (ORR). Secondary outcome measures were 30-day and 3-month ORR, time to tumor progression and extrahepatic spread, proportion of progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) at one year, and incidence of treatment-associated adverse events.

RESULTS

Data from 108 patients from ten centers was analyzed. Six-month ORR was 73.3 and 71.3% based on European association for the study of the liver (EASL) and modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST) criteria, respectively. Thirty-day ORR was 79.6% for both EASL and mRECIST criteria with 3-month ORR being 80.0 and 81.0%, respectively, for each criteria. One-year PPF and OS rate were 60.3 and 94.3%. There was a total of 30 SAEs reported to be likely to definitely associated with microsphere (n = 9), epirubicin (n = 9), or procedure (n = 12) with none resulting in death.

CONCLUSION

DEB-TACE using epirubicin-loaded small-sized (≤ 100 μm) microspheres demonstrates promising local tumor control and acceptable safety in patients with HCC.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03113955; registered April 14, 2017. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03113955; registered April 14, 2017.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

2, Prospective, Non-randomized, Single-arm, study.

Prognostic value of preoperative serum ferritin in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

The present study investigated the prognostic impact of preoperative serum ferritin (SF) levels on the survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Clinicopathological characteristics and laboratory biomarkers of 223 patients with HCC who underwent TACE were retrospectively reviewed. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the overall survival (OS), and the log-rank test was used to evaluate statistical significance. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate the prognostic impact of SF in these patients. The present findings identified extrahepatic metastases [hazard ratio (HR)=0.490,95%; confidence interval (CI)=0.282-0.843; P=0.010)] and vascular invasion (HR=0.373; 95% CI=0.225-0.619; P<0.0001) as independent prognostic factors for OS. However, preoperative SF levels could not independently predict OS when compared with other prognostic factors (HR=0.810; 95% CI=0.539-1.216; P=0.309). In conclusion, preoperative SF level is an unreliable biochemical predictor of survival in patients with HCC undergoing TACE.

Development and Validation of Deep Learning Model for Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma Survival with Transarterial Chemoembolization (MC-hccAI 002): a Retrospective, Multicenter, Cohort Study

Background: There are few effective prediction models for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (IM-HCC) patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) to predict overall survival (OS) is available. The learning survival neural network (DeepSurv) was developed to showed a better performance than cox proportional hazards model in prediction of OS. This study aimed to develop a deep learning-based prediction model to predict individual OS. Methods: This multicenter, retrospective, cohort study examined data from the electronic medical record system of four hospitals in China between January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2016. Patients were divided into a training set(n=1075) and a test set(n=269) at a ratio of 8:2 to develop a deep learning-based algorithm (deepHAP IV). The deepHAP IV model was externally validated on an independent cohort(n=414) from the other three centers. The concordance index, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves, and the calibration curve were used to assess the performance of the models. Results: The deepHAP IV model had a c-index of 0.74, whereas AUROC for predicting survival outcomes of 1-, 3-, and 5-year reached 0.80, 0.76, and 0.74 in the training set. Calibration graphs showed good consistency between the actual and predicted OS in the training set and the validation cohort. Compared to the other five Cox proportional-hazards models, the model this study conducted had a better performance. Patients were finally classified into three groups by X-tile plots with predicted 3-year OS rate (low: ≤ 0.11; middle: > 0.11 and ≤ 0.35; high: >0.35). Conclusion: The deepHAP IV model can effectively predict the OS of patients with IM-HCC, showing a better performance than previous Cox proportional hazards models.

Identification of patients with favorable prognosis after resection in intermediate-stage-hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUNDS

It is unclear which patients benefit from resection in intermediate-stage-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The authors aimed to identify high-risk patients for early recurrence among patients with resectable intermediate-stage HCC.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective study included patients who underwent resection or trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intermediate-stage HCC (2008-2019). Multivariable Cox proportional analysis was performed to identify high-risk patients when treated with resection. A prediction score for 2-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was developed using the training cohort and validated. The 2-year RFS in each risk group was compared with that in TACE group, after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

A total of 1686 patients were included (480 and 1206 patients in the resection and TACE groups). During a median follow-up of 31.4 months, the 2-year RFS was significantly higher in the resection (47.7%) than in the TACE group (19.8%) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.471, 95% CI: 1.199-1.803, P <0.001). On multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein ≥5.0 ng/ml (aHR=0.202), ALBI grade ≥2 (aHR=0.709), tumor number ≥3 (aHR=0.404), and maximal tumor size ≥5 cm (aHR=0.323) were significantly associated with the lower risk of 2-year RFS in the resection group. The newly developed Surgery Risk score in BCLC-B (SR-B score) with four significant risk factors showed an area under the curve of 0.801 for the 2-year RFS and was validated. Based on the SR-B score, low-risk patients had a significantly higher 2-year RFS (training: aHR=5.834; validation: aHR=5.675) than high-risk patients (all P <0.001) did. In a PSM cohort, a low-risk resection group had a significantly higher (aHR=3.891); a high-risk resection group had a comparable 2-year RFS to those treated with TACE (aHR=0.816).

CONCLUSIONS

Resection may be beneficial for resectable intermediate-stage HCC based on the SR-B score.

Improving prognostication in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing loco-regional therapy using pre- and post-locoregional therapy scores

BACKGROUND

Many scoring systems have been proposed for predicting survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing locoregional therapy (LRT). We aimed to study the role of the NIACE score, hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score (HAP), and ABCR score in predicting transplant-free survival (TFS) in these patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective multicenter study of a United States Veteran cohort who underwent LRT, NIACE, HAP, and ABCR scores were calculated, and their predictive accuracy for TFS within different modified BCLC (mod-BCLC) stages was analyzed.

RESULTS

180 subjects underwent LRT between January-2012 and March-2019 were followed till January-2022, mean age 65.6 ± 6.3 years, model for end-stage liver disease -sodium (MELD-Na) score (at first LRT) 14.1 ± 6.7. A total of 43.9%, 35%, and 21.1% of patients had mod-BCLC A, B, and C stage disease, respectively. A total of 76.7% underwent transarterial embolization (TAE), 6.1% underwent ablation, and 17.2% underwent transarterial radioembolization (TARE) as the first intervention and were followed for a median of 576.5 patient-years. The NIACE score, HAP score, and ABCR scores differentiated patients within mod-BCLC stages A and B into groups with significant differences in TFS. In the stratified analysis of those undergoing only TAE, all three scores identified subgroups with significantly different TFS.

CONCLUSION

In patients with HCC undergoing LRT, the mod-BCLC stages have subgroups with variable overall TFS. The NIACE score, HAP score, and ABCR score identified differential prognoses is within mod-BCLC stages and characterized subgroups with different TFS following LRT (TAE). Integration of these scoring systems into treatment decisions would help to improve prognostication within respective mod-BCLC groups, which may help with more customized treatment allocation.

A multi-institutional study to predict the benefits of DEB-TACE and molecular targeted agent sequential therapy in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma using a radiological-clinical nomogram

OBJECTIVE

Exploring the efficacy of a Radiological-Clinical (Rad-Clinical) model in predicting prognosis of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after drug eluting beads transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) to optimize the targeted sequential treatment.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis, we included 202 patients with unresectable HCC who received DEB-TACE treatment in 17 institutions from June 2018 to December 2022. Progression-free survival (PFS)-related radiomics features were computationally extracted from HCC patients to build a radiological signature (Rad-signature) model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. A Rad-Clinical model for postoperative PFS was further constructed according to the Rad-signature and clinical variables by Cox regression analysis. It was presented as a nomogram and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. And further evaluate the application value of Rad-Clinical model in clinical stages and targeted sequential therapy of HCC.

RESULTS

Tumor size, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and radiomics score (Rad-score) were found to be independent risk factors for PFS after DEB-TACE treatment for unresectable HCC, with the Rad-Clinical model being the greatest predictor of PFS in these patients (hazard ratio: 2.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.78; P < 0.001) along with high 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, and 24 months area under the curves of 0.857, 0.810, 0.843, and 0.838, respectively. In addition, compared to the radiomics and clinical nomograms, the Radiological-Clinical nomogram also significantly improved the classification accuracy for PFS outcomes, based on the net reclassification improvement (45.2%, 95% CI 0.260-0.632, p < 0.05) and integrated discrimination improvement (14.9%, 95% CI 0.064-0.281, p < 0.05). Based on this model, low-risk patients had higher PFS than high-risk patients in BCLC-B and C stages (P = 0.021). Targeted sequential therapy for patients with high and low-risk HCC in BCLC-B stage exhibited significant benefits (P = 0.018, P = 0.012), but patients with high-risk HCC in BCLC-C stage did not benefit much (P = 0.052).

CONCLUSION

The Rad-Clinical model may be favorable for predicting PFS in patients with unresectable HCC treated with DEB-TACE and for identifying patients who may benefit from targeted sequential therapy.

Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization for Treatment-Naive Hepatocellular Carcinoma Has Different Treatment Effects Depending on Central or Peripheral Tumor Location

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the treatment efficacy of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for treatment-naive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) according to tumor location and burden.

Methods

Between 2010 and 2019, consecutive patients who underwent TACE as the first treatment were enrolled. Tumors were classified into two categories based on their location, as central or peripheral tumors. Tumors in the central zone, which is within 1 cm of the main trunk or the first branch of the portal vein, were classified as central tumors, while those located in the peripheral zone were classified as peripheral tumors. Patients were grouped according to the HCC location and up-to-7 criteria. Patients with central tumors were classified into the central arm and those with only peripheral tumors were classified into the peripheral arm. Patients within and beyond the up-to-7 criteria were classified into the up-to-7 in and up-to-7 out-groups, respectively. Local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were compared per nodule (central tumor vs. peripheral tumor) and per patient (central arm vs. peripheral arm), respectively. The prognostic factors of LRFS and PFS were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results

A total of 174 treatment-naive patients with 352 HCCs were retrospectively enrolled. Ninety-six patients and 130 lesions were selected by propensity score matching. Median LRFS was longer for peripheral tumors than central tumors (not reached vs. 3.3 months, p < 0.001). Median PFS was 17.1 months (8.3-24.9) in the peripheral arm and up-to-7 in, 7.0 months (3.3-12.7) in the peripheral arm and up-to-7 out, 8.4 months (4.0-12.6) in the central arm and up-to-7 in, and 3.0 months (1.2-4.9) in the central arm and up-to-7 out-groups. The peripheral arm and up-to-7 in-groups had significantly longer PFS than the other three groups (p = 0.013, p = 0.015, p < 0.001, respectively). Multivariate analysis confirmed that the central zone and central arm were associated with high adjusted hazard ratios for tumor recurrence or death (2.87, p < 0.001; 2.89, p < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusion

Treatment-naive HCCs in the peripheral zone had a longer LRFS and PFS following TACE compared to those in the central zone.

Efficacy of Selective Internal Radiation Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Post-Incomplete Response to Chemoembolization

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common neoplasms worldwide and the third most common cause of cancer-related death. Several liver-targeted intra-arterial therapies are available for unresectable HCC, including selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) and trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE). Those two are the most used treatment modalities in localized non-operable HCC. TACE is the treatment option for patients with stage B, according to the BCLC staging system. In contrast, SIRT does not have an official role in the treatment algorithm, but recent studies showed promising outcomes in patients treated with SIRT. Although TACE is globally a safe procedure, it might provoke several vascular complications such as spasms, inflammatory constriction, and, in severe cases, occlusion, dissection, or collateralization. Hence, it is acclaimed that those complications could restrain the targeted response of the radio-embolization when we use it as second-line therapy post TACE. In this study, we will assess the efficacity of SIRT using Yttrium 90 Microspheres post incomplete or failure response to TACE. In our retrospective study, we had 23 patients who met the inclusion criteria. Furthermore, those patients have been followed radiologically and biologically. Then, we evaluated the therapeutic effect according to the mRECIST criteria, in addition to the personalized dose analysis. We found 8 patients were treated with TheraSphere®, with a median tumor absorbed dose of 445 Gy, while 15 received SIR-Spheres® treatment with a mean tumor dose of 268 Gy. After radiological analysis, 56.5% of the patients had a complete response, and 17.3% showed partial response, whereas 13% had stable disease and 13% had progressive disease. For patients treated with SIRT after an incomplete response or failure to TACE, we found an objective response rate of 73.8%. Despite the known vascular complications of TACE, SIRT can give a favorable response.

A new model to estimate duration of survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma with BCLC intermediate stage

It is difficult to determine whether an individual therapy contributes to the elongation of survival because of the difficulty of organizing clinical research in patients who receive multiple treatments in HCC. We aimed to establish a new model of survival prediction in patients with intermediate stage HCC to establish standards in the recent and coming multi-MTA era. This analysis was prepared using a data set of 753 patients diagnosed HCC prior to 2017. Multiple regression analysis showed age, naïve or recurrence, the size of the largest tumor nodule, the number of nodules, total bilirubin, albumin and α-fetoprotein as independent predictors of survival. A Weibull model had the best fit and, based on these predictors, we established a new predicted survival model. The survival duration can be predicted the proposed model; EXP (4.02580 + (- 0.0086253) × age + (- 0.34667) × (naïve/recurrence) + (- 0.034962) × (number of nodules) + (- 0.079447) × (the size of the largest nodule) + (- 0.21696) × (total bilirubin) + 0.27912 × (albumin) + (- 0.00014741) × (α-fetoprotein)) × (- natural logarithm(0.5))^0.67250. This model is useful for the planning and evaluating the efficacy of recent sequential therapies in multi-MTA era.

Using Machine Learning to Predict Response to Image-guided Therapies for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Interventional oncology is a rapidly growing field with advances in minimally invasive image-guided local-regional treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), including transarterial chemoembolization, transarterial radioembolization, and thermal ablation. However, current standardized clinical staging systems for HCC are limited in their ability to optimize patient selection for treatment as they rely primarily on serum markers and radiologist-defined imaging features. Given the variation in treatment responses, an updated scoring system that includes multidimensional aspects of the disease, including quantitative imaging features, serum markers, and functional biomarkers, is needed to optimally triage patients. With the vast amounts of numerical medical record data and imaging features, researchers have turned to image-based methods, such as radiomics and artificial intelligence (AI), to automatically extract and process multidimensional data from images. The synthesis of these data can provide clinically relevant results to guide personalized treatment plans and optimize resource utilization. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of AI in which a model learns from training data and makes effective predictions by teaching itself. This review article outlines the basics of ML and provides a comprehensive overview of its potential value in the prediction of treatment response in patients with HCC after minimally invasive image-guided therapy.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Protein Post-translational Modifications in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignant tumor with high incidence and cancer mortality worldwide. Post-translational modifications (PTMs) of proteins have a great impact on protein function. Almost all proteins can undergo PTMs, including phosphorylation, acetylation, methylation, glycosylation, ubiquitination, and so on. Many studies have shown that PTMs are related to the occurrence and development of cancers. The findings provide novel therapeutic targets for cancers, such as glypican-3 and mucin-1. Other clinical implications are also found in the studies of PTMs. Diagnostic or prognostic value, and response to therapy have been identified. In HCC, it has been shown that glycosylated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has a higher detection rate for early liver cancer than conventional AFP. In this review, we mainly focused on the diagnostic and prognostic value of PTM, in order to provide new insights into the clinical implication of PTM in HCC.

Prediction model of no-response before the first transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma: TACF score

Previous clinic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) mainly focused on the overall survival, whereas a simple-to-use tool for predicting the response to the first TACE and the management of risk classification before TACE are lacking. Our aim was to develop a scoring system calculated manually for these patients. A total of 437 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent TACE treatment were carefully selected for analysis. They were then randomly divided into two groups: a training group comprising 350 patients and a validation group comprising 77 patients. Furthermore, 45 HCC patients who had recently undergone TACE treatment been included in the study to validate the model's efficacy and applicability. The factors selected for the predictive model were comprehensively based on the results of the LASSO, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The discrimination, calibration ability and clinic utility of models were evaluated in both the training and validation groups. A prediction model incorporated 3 objective imaging characteristics and 2 indicators of liver function. The model showed good discrimination, with AUROCs of 0.735, 0.706 and 0.884 and in the training group and validation groups, and good calibration. The model classified the patients into three groups based on the calculated score, including low risk, median risk and high-risk groups, with rates of no response to TACE of 26.3%, 40.2% and 76.8%, respectively. We derived and validated a model for predicting the response of patients with HCC before receiving the first TACE that had adequate performance and utility. This model may be a useful and layered management tool for patients with HCC undergoing TACE.

ASARA, a prediction model based on Child-Pugh class in hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Due to the high heterogeneity among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), the prognosis of patients varies significantly. The decision-making on the initiation and/or repetition of TACE under different liver functions is a matter of concern in clinical practice. Thus, we aimed to develop a prediction model for TACE candidates using risk stratification based on varied liver function.

METHODS

A total of 222 unresectable HCC patients who underwent TACE as their only treatment were included in this study. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to select the independent risk factors and establish a predictive model for the overall survival (OS). The model was validated in patients with different Child-Pugh class and compared to previous TACE scoring systems.

RESULTS

The five independent risk factors, including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, maximal tumor size, the increase of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade score, tumor response, and the increase of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), were used to build a prognostic model (ASARA). In the training and validation cohorts, the OS of patients with ASARA score ≤ 2 was significantly higher than that of patients with ASARA score > 2 (P < 0.001, P = 0.006, respectively). The ASARA model and its modified version "AS(ARA)" can effectively distinguish the OS (P < 0.001, P = 0.004) between patients with Child-Pugh class A and B, and the C-index was 0.687 and 0.706, respectively. For repeated TACE, the ASARA model was superior to Assessment for Retreatment with TACE (ART) and ALBI grade, maximal tumor size, AFP, and tumor response (ASAR) among Child-Pugh class A patients. For the first TACE, the performance of AS(ARA) was better than that of modified hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (mHAP), mHAP3, and ASA(R) models among Child-Pugh class B patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The ASARA scoring system is valuable in the decision-making of TACE repetition for HCC patients, especially Child-Pugh class A patients. The modified AS(ARA) can be used to screen the ideal candidate for TACE initiation in Child-Pugh class B patients with poor liver function.

Identification of BRD7 by whole-exome sequencing as a predictor for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients undergoing TACE

OBJECTIVE

In the present study, we aimed to identify potential predictors of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using whole-exome sequencing (WES) in patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In A total of 51 patients, newly diagnosed with intermediate-stage HCC between January 2013 and December 2020, were enrolled. Prior to treatment, histological samples were collected for western blotting and immunohistochemistry. The predictive roles of clinical indicators and genes in patient prognosis were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Finally, the correlation between imaging features and gene signatures was examined.

RESULTS

Using WES, we identified that bromodomain-containing protein 7 (BRD7) was significantly mutated in patients with different TACE responses. No significant difference in BRD7 expression was observed between patients with and without BRD7 mutations. HCC tumors exhibited higher BRD7 than normal liver tissues. Multivariate analysis revealed that alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), BRD7 expression, and BRD7 mutations were independent risk factors for progression-free survival (PFS). In addition, Child-Pugh class, BRD7 expression, and BRD7 mutations were independent risk factors for overall survival (OS). Patients with wild-type BRD7 and high BRD7 expression had worse PFS and OS, whereas those with mutated BRD7 and low BRD7 expression exhibited the best PFS and OS. The Kruskal-Wallis test revealed that wash-in enhancement on computed tomography might be an independent risk factor for high BRD7 expression.

CONCLUSION

BRD7 expression may be an independent risk factor for prognosis in patients with HCC undergoing TACE. Imaging features such as wash-in enhancement are closely related to BRD7 expression.

Egyptian Society of Liver Cancer Recommendation Guidelines for the Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Globally, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fourth most common cause of death from cancer. The prevalence of this pathology, which has been on the rise in the last 30 years, has been predicted to continue increasing. HCC is the most common cause of cancer-related morbidity and mortality in Egypt and is also the most common cancer in males. Chronic liver diseases, including chronic hepatitis C, which is a primary health concern in Egypt, are considered major risk factors for HCC. However, HCC surveillance is recommended for patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) and liver cirrhosis; those above 40 with HBV but without cirrhosis; individuals with hepatitis D co-infection or a family history of HCC; and Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients exhibiting significant fibrosis or cirrhosis. Several international guidelines aid physicians in the management of HCC. However, the availability and cost of diagnostic modalities and treatment options vary from one country to another. Therefore, the current guidelines aim to standardize the management of HCC in Egypt. The recommendations presented in this report represent the current management strategy at HCC treatment centers in Egypt. Recommendations were developed by an expert panel consisting of hepatologists, oncologists, gastroenterologists, surgeons, pathologists, and radiologists working under the umbrella of the Egyptian Society of Liver Cancer. The recommendations, which are based on the currently available local diagnostic aids and treatments in the country, include recommendations for future prospects.

Contrast-Enhanced CT Imaging Features Combined with Clinical Factors to Predict the Efficacy and Prognosis for Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

Accurate prediction of treatment response to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is critical for precision treatment. This study aimed to develop a comprehensive model (DLRC) that incorporates contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) images and clinical factors to predict the response to TACE in patients with HCC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 399 patients with intermediate-stage HCC were included in this retrospective study. Deep learning and radiomic signatures were established based on arterial phase CECT images, Correlation analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection (LASSO) regression analysis were applied for features selection. The DLRC model incorporating deep learning radiomic signatures and clinical factors was developed using multivariate logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Kaplan-Meier survival curves based on the DLRC were plotted to assess overall survival in the follow-up cohort (n = 261).

RESULTS

The DLRC model was developed using 19 quantitative radiomic features, 10 deep learning features, and 3 clinical factors. The AUC of the DLRC model was 0.937 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.912-0.962) and 0.909 (95% CI, 0.850-0.968) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, outperforming models established with two signatures or a single signature (p < 0.05). Stratified analysis showed that the DLRC was not statistically different between subgroups (p > 0.05), and the DCA confirmed the greater net clinical benefit. In addition, multivariable cox regression revealed that DLRC model outputs were independent risk factors for the overall survival (hazard ratios: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.03-1.40; p = 0.019).

CONCLUSION

The DLRC model exhibited a remarkable accuracy in predicting response to TACE, and it can be utilized as a potent tool for precision treatment.

Survival Prediction After Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Deep Multitask Survival Analysis Approach

The accurate prediction of postoperative survival time of patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for postoperative health care. Survival analysis is a common method used to predict the occurrence time of events of interest in the medical field. At present, the mainstream survival analysis models, such as the Cox proportional risk model, should make strict assumptions about the potential random process to solve the censored data, thus potentially limiting their application in clinical practice. In this paper, we propose a novel deep multitask survival model (DMSM) to analyze HCC survival data. Specifically, DMSM transforms the traditional survival time prediction problem of patients with HCC into a survival probability prediction problem at multiple time points and applies entropy regularization and ranking loss to optimize a multitask neural network. Compared with the traditional methods of deleting censored data and strong hypothesis, DMSM makes full use of all the information in the censored data but does not need to make any assumption. In addition, we identify the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with HCC and visualize the importance of ranking these factors. On the basis of the analysis of a real dataset of patients with BCLC stage B HCC, experimental results on three different validation datasets show that the DMSM achieves competitive performance with concordance index of 0.779, 0.727, and 0.780 and integrated Brier score (IBS) of 0.172, 0.138, and 0.135, respectively. Our DMSM has a comparatively small standard deviation (0.002, 0.002, and 0.003) for IBS of bootstrapping 100 times. The DMSM we proposed can be utilized as an effective survival analysis model and provide an important means for the accurate prediction of postoperative survival time of patients with BCLC stage B HCC.

Radiomics features of computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging for predicting response to transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma: a meta-analysis

Purpose

To examine the methodological quality of radiomics-related studies and evaluate the ability of radiomics to predict treatment response to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

A systematic review was performed on radiomics-related studies published until October 15, 2022, predicting the effectiveness of TACE for HCC. Methodological quality and risk of bias were assessed using the Radiomics Quality Score (RQS) and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tools, respectively. Pooled sensitivity, pooled specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were determined to evaluate the utility of radiomics in predicting the response to TACE for HCC.

Results

In this systematic review, ten studies were eligible, and six of these studies were used in our meta-analysis. The RQS ranged from 7-21 (maximum possible score: 36). The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.79-0.95) and 0.82 (95% CI = 0.64-0.92), respectively. The overall AUC was 0.93 (95% CI = 0.90-0.95).

Conclusion

Radiomics-related studies evaluating the efficacy of TACE in patients with HCC revealed promising results. However, prospective and multicenter trials are warranted to make radiomics more feasible and acceptable.

Clinical impact of 99mTc-MAA SPECT/CT-based personalized predictive dosimetry in selective internal radiotherapy: a real-life single-center experience in unresectable HCC patients

BACKGROUND

Recent data demonstrated that personalized dosimetry-based selective internal radiotherapy (SIRT) is associated with better outcome for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIM

We aim to evaluate the contribution of personalized predictive dosimetry (performed with Simplicity90® software) in our population of HCC patients by comparing them to our historical cohort whose activity was determined by standard dosimetry.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, single-center study conducted between February 2016 and December 2020 that included patients with HCC who received SIRT after simulation based on either standard dosimetry (group A) or, as of December 2017, on personalized dosimetry (group B). Primary endpoints were best overall response (BOR) and objective response rate (ORR) evaluated by mRECIST at 3 months. Safety and toxicity profiles were evaluated at 1- and 3-months post-treatment. For group A we compared the activity to be administered determined a posteriori using Simplicit90Y® and the activity actually administered determined by the standard approach.

RESULTS

Between February 2016 and December 2020, 66 patients received 69 simulations leading to 40 treatments. The median follow-up time was equal for both groups, 21 months (range 3-55) in group A and 21 months (range 4-39) in group B. The per patient analysis revealed a significant benefit of personalized predictive dosimetry in terms of better overall response at 3 months (80% vs. 33.3%, p = 0.007) and at 6 months (77.8% vs. 22.2%, p = 0.06). This trend was found in the analysis by nodule with a response rate according to mRECIST of 87.5% for personalized dosimetry versus 68.4% for standard dosimetry at 3 months, p = 0.24. Only one grade 3 biological toxicity (hyperbilirubinemia) was noted in group A. The comparison between the administered activity and the recommended activity recalculated a posteriori using Simplicit90Y® showed that the vast majority of patients who progressed (83.33%) received less activity than that recommended by the personalized approach or an inadequate distribution of the administered activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study aligns to recent literature and confirms that the use of personalized dosimetry allows a better selection of HCC patients who can benefit from SIRT, and consequently, improves the effectiveness of this treatment.

Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict the Prognosis of Patients With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background

Recent studies have shown that inflammatory indicators are closely related to the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, and they can serve as powerful indices for predicting recurrence and survival time after treatment. However, the predictive ability of inflammatory indicators has not been systematically studied in patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Therefore, the objective of this research was to determine the predictive value of preoperative inflammatory indicators for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with TACE.

Methods

Our retrospective research involved 381 treatment-naïve patients in 3 institutions, including the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Nantong First People's Hospital, and Nantong Tumor Hospital, from January 2007 to December 2020 that received TACE as initial treatment. Relevant data of patients were collected from the electronic medical record database, and the recurrence and survival time of patients after treatment were followed up. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used to compress and screen the variables. We utilized Cox regression to determine the independent factors associated with patient outcomes and constructed a nomogram based on multivariate results. Finally, the nomogram was verified from discriminability, calibration ability, and practical applicability.

Results

Multivariate analysis revealed that the levels of aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and lymphocyte count were independent influential indicators for overall survival (OS), whereas the levels of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) was an independent influential index for progression. Nomograms exhibited an excellent concordance index (C-index), in the nomogram of OS, the C-index was 0.753 and 0.755 in training and validation cohort, respectively; and in the nomogram of progression, the C-index was 0.781 and 0.700, respectively. The time-dependent C-index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram all exhibited ideal discrimination ability. Calibration curves significantly coincided with the standard lines, which indicated that the nomogram had high stability and low degree of over-fitting. Decision curve analysis revealed a wider range of threshold probabilities and could augment net benefits. The Kaplan-Meier curves for risk stratification indicated that the prognosis of patients varied significantly between risk categories (P < .0001).

Conclusions

The developed prognostic nomograms based on preoperative inflammatory indicators revealed high predictive accuracy for survival and recurrence. It can be a valuable clinical instrument for guiding individualized treatment and predicting prognosis.

Validation of the ALBI-TAE model and comparison of seven scoring systems for predicting survival outcome in patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

The ALBI-TAE model was recently proposed as a scoring system to select suitable patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). However, this scoring system has not been externally validated. Therefore, we validated this score and compared it with six scoring systems in terms of prognostication.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 480 patients with intermediate-stage HCC who underwent TACE at a tertiary care center between January 2008 and December 2019. Seven scores, which included the ALBI-TAE model, Bolondi's subclassification, HAP score, mHAP-II score, tumor burden score, six-and-twelve score, and seven-eleven criteria, were calculated and a head-to-head comparison was made in terms of prognostic power using Harrell's C-index. Prognostic factors associated with survival were analyzed.

RESULTS

ALBI-TAE group A had the longest median overall survival (OS) of 40.80 months, followed by ALBI-TAE groups B, C, and D of 20.14 months, 10.58 months, and 7.54 months, respectively, with significant differences (P < 0.001). Among the seven scores, the ALBI-TAE model had the best predictive performance (Harrell's C-index 0.633) in differentiating OS in intermediate-stage HCC patients. Moreover, the ALBI-TAE model was identified as an independent prognostic factor for survival outcome in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirmed the value of the ALBI-TAE model with excellent prognostic discriminatory power in intermediate-stage HCC patients. The ALBI-TAE model is a simple and valuable predictive tool to identify patients with good prognosis who can get the most benefit from TACE.

TACE responser NDRG1 acts as a guardian against ferroptosis to drive tumorgenesis and metastasis in HCC

BACKGROUND

The treatment efficacy of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) varies widely between individuals. The aim of this study was to identify subtype landscapes and responser related to TACE, and further clarify the regulatory effect and corresponding mechanism of NDRG1 on HCC tumorgenesis and metastasis.

METHODS

The principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm was used to construct a TACE response scoring (TRscore) system. The random forest algorithm was applied to identify the TACE response-related core gene NDRG1 of HCC, and its role in the prognosis of HCC was explored. The role of NDRG1 in the progression and metastasis of HCC and functional mechanism were confirmed using several experimental methods.

RESULTS

Based on the GSE14520 and GSE104580 cohorts, we identified 2 TACE response-related molecular subtypes for HCC with significant differences in clinical features, and the TACE prognosis of Cluster A was significantly better than that of Cluster B (p < 0.0001). We then established the TRscore system and found that the low TRscore group showed a higher probability of survival and a lower rate of recurrence than the high TRscore group (p < 0.05) in both the HCC and TACE-treated HCC cohorts within the GSE14520 cohort. NDRG1 was determined to be the the hub gene associated with the TACE response of HCC and its high expression suggested a poor prognosis. Furthermore, The suppression of NDRG1 konckdown in tumorgenesis and metastasis of HCC was clarified in both vivo and vitro, which was importantly achieved through inducing ferroptosis in HCC cells, especially contributing to RLS3-induced ferroptosis.

CONCLUSION

The constructed TACE response-related molecular subtypes and TRscores can specifically and accurately predict TACE prognosis for HCC. In addition, the TACE response-related hub gene NDRG1 may act as a guardian against ferroptosis to drive tumorgenesis and metastasis in HCC, which laid a new foundation for the development of new potential targeted therapy strategies to improve disease prognosis in HCC patients.

Radiomic advances in the transarterial chemoembolization related therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma

Radiomics is a hot topic in the research on customized oncology treatment, efficacy evaluation, and tumor prognosis prediction. To achieve the goal of mining the heterogeneity information within the tumor tissue, the image features concealed within the tumoral images are turned into quantifiable data features. This article primarily describes the research progress of radiomics and clinical-radiomics combined model in the prediction of efficacy, the choice of treatment modality, and survival in transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and TACE combination therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Liver decompensation is a frequent cause of treatment discontinuation and prognostic factor in intermediate-advanced HCC

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

With the advent of new therapeutic options for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for intermediate or advanced stages of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), regional real-world data regarding prognostic survival factors are of significant importance.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in Latin America including BCLC B or C patients since 15^th May 2018. We report here the second interim analysis focusing on prognostic variables and causes of treatment discontinuation. Cox proportional hazard survival analysis was performed, estimating hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

Overall, 390 patients were included, 55.1% and 44.9% were BCLC B and C at the time of study enrollment. Cirrhosis was present in 89.5% of the cohort. Among the BCLC-B group, 42.3% were treated with TACE with a median survival since the first session of 41.9 months. Liver decompensation before TACE was independently associated with increased mortality [HR 3.22 (CI 1.64;6.33); P<.001]. Systemic treatment was initiated in 48.2% of the cohort (n=188), with a median survival of 15.7 months. Of these, 48.9% presented first-line treatment discontinuation (44.4% tumor progression, 29.3% liver decompensation, 18.5% symptomatic deterioration, and 7.8% intolerance), and only 28.7% received second-line systemic treatments. Liver decompensation [HR 2.9 (1.64;5.29); P<.0001], and symptomatic progression [HR 3.9 (1.53;9.78); P=0.004] were independently associated with mortality after first-line systemic treatment discontinuation.

CONCLUSIONS

The complexity of these patients, with one-third presenting liver decompensation after systemic therapies, underlines the need for multidisciplinary team management and the central role of hepatologists.

Recommendation of mHAP and ABCR scoring systems for the decision-making of the first and subsequent TACE session in HCC patients

BACKGROUND

Due to the high heterogeneity among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), the prognosis of patients varies significantly. Various predictive scoring systems have been developed to identify the patients who could benefit from TACE. However, there is no consensus on which is better. This study aims to validate and compare the predictive capabilities of scoring systems for first and subsequent TACE.

MATERIALS

A total of 524 HCC patients were treated with TACE, and 222 patients who met the inclusion criteria were included. Log-rank test was used to verify the predictive value of six scoring systems for the first TACE and four TACE retreatment scoring systems. Harrell's concordance (C)-index, likelihood ratio and integrated Brier score (IBS) were used to compare the predictive performance.

RESULTS

For the scoring systems of TACE, the overall survival (OS) of candidates screened by Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP), modified HAP (mHAP), mHAP3, alpha-fetoprotein, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Child-Pugh and Response (ABCR), albumin-bilirubin grade (ALBI), tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein, first TACE response and pre-/post-TACE was significantly longer than that of the noncandidates (all P < 0.05), whereas the mHAP2 and assessment for retreatment with TACE did not distinguish the candidates from noncandidates (P = 0.206, 0.115, respectively). The predictive and calibration performances of mHAP and ABCR were the highest for the first TACE and TACE retreatment, respectively.

CONCLUSION

mHAP identifies the patients who could benefit from the first TACE, whereas ABCR distinguishes patients who could benefit from subsequent TACE sessions.

Identifying optimal candidates for post-TIPS patients with HCC undergoing TACE: a multicenter observational study

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic model for post-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria treated by transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

DESIGN

Between January 2013 and January 2020, 512 patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria who underwent TACE after TIPS were retrospectively recruited from 15 tertiary centers. Patients were randomly sorted into a training set (n = 382) and a validation set (n = 130). Medical data and overall survival were assessed. A prediction model was developed using multivariate Cox regression analyses. Predictive performance and discrimination were evaluated and compared with other prognostic models.

RESULTS

Vascular invasion, log₁₀(AFP), 1/creatinine, extrahepatic spread, and log₁₀(ALT) were the most significant prognostic factors of survival. These five parameters were included in a new VACEA score. This score was able to stratify patients in the training set into four distinct risk grades whose median overall survival were 25.2, 15.1, 8.9, and 6.2 months, respectively. The 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year AUROC values and C-index of the VACEA model were 0.819, 0.806, 0.779, 0.825, and 0.735, respectively, and higher than those of other seven currently available models in both the training and validation sets, as well as in different subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The VACEA score could stratify post-TIPS patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria treated by TACE and help to identify candidates who benefit from this treatment.

KEY POINTS

• Vascular invasion, AFP, creatinine, extrahepatic spread, and ALT were independent significant prognostic factors of survival for HCC patients who underwent TACE after TIPS. • Our new model, named VACEA score, can accurately predict prognosis at the individual level and stratify patients into four distinct risk grades. • The VACEA model showed better prognostic discrimination and calibration than other current TACE-/TIPS-specific models Graphical abstract.

An Integrated Liver Function, Systemic Inflammation, and Tumor Characteristic Score Predicts Prognosis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Resection

BACKGROUND

Several scoring systems are currently used to predict prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but none of them integrates liver function, systemic inflammation, and tumor characteristics in a unified model. The current study aimed to develop and validate a novel prognostic score that integrates liver function, systemic inflammation, and tumor characteristics in a unified model to predict the prognosis of HCC after curative resection.

METHODS

Patients with HCC who underwent curative liver resection were included in a training set (n = 1027). Multivariate Cox regression was performed to determine the risk factors for a poor prognosis. A prognostic score was developed by assigning points for risk factors in proportion to beta coefficients in a Cox multivariable model. Predictive performance and distinction ability of the prognostic score were further evaluated in two independent validation cohorts treated with either curative resection (n = 281) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) (n = 404) and compared with 16 other models.

RESULTS

The prognostic predictive system, named the function-inflammation-burden-alpha-fetoprotein (FIBA) score, was derived by assigning points for six independent predictors including albumin, total bilirubin, lymphocyte count, diameter of the largest tumor, number of tumors, and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). The FIBA score showed an outperformed predictive value compared with other systems in both training and validation cohorts by giving the highest C-index, likelihood ratio chi-square values, and Wald test values as well as the lowest Akaike information criterion.

CONCLUSION

The FIBA score can be used to stratify HCC patients treated with curative resection. Meanwhile, the FIBA score performs well against other prognostic scoring systems and is potentially broadly applicable to a TACE-treated patient cohort.

Radiomics, a Promising New Discipline: Example of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Radiomics is a discipline that involves studying medical images through their digital data. Using “artificial intelligence” algorithms, radiomics utilizes quantitative and high-throughput analysis of an image’s textural richness to obtain relevant information for clinicians, from diagnosis assistance to therapeutic guidance. Exploitation of these data could allow for a more detailed characterization of each phenotype, for each patient, making radiomics a new biomarker of interest, highly promising in the era of precision medicine. Moreover, radiomics is non-invasive, cost-effective, and easily reproducible in time. In the field of oncology, it performs an analysis of the entire tumor, which is impossible with a single biopsy but is essential for understanding the tumor’s heterogeneity and is known to be closely related to prognosis. However, current results are sometimes less accurate than expected and often require the addition of non-radiomics data to create a performing model. To highlight the strengths and weaknesses of this new technology, we take the example of hepatocellular carcinoma and show how radiomics could facilitate its diagnosis in difficult cases, predict certain histological features, and estimate treatment response, whether medical or surgical.

CXCL1 and CXCL6 Are Potential Predictors for HCC Response to TACE

Distinct immune patterns of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may have prognostic implications in the response to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Thus, we aimed to exploratively analyze tumor tissue of HCC patients who do or do not respond to TACE, and to identify novel prognostic biomarkers predictive of response to TACE. We retrospectively included 15 HCC patients who had three consecutive TACE between January 2019 and November 2019. Eight patients had a response while seven patients had no response to TACE. All patients had measurable disease according to mRECIST. Corresponding tumor tissue samples were processed for differential expression profiling using NanoString nCounter^® PanCancer immune profiling panel. Immune-related pathways were broadly upregulated in TACE responders. The top differentially regulated genes were the upregulated CXCL1 (log2fc 4.98, Benjamini-Hochberg (BH)-p < 0.001), CXCL6 (log2fc 4.43, BH-p = 0.016) and the downregulated MME (log2fc -4.33, BH-p 0.001). CD8/T-regs was highly increased in responders, whereas the relative number of T-regs to tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) was highly decreased. We preliminary identified CXCL1 and CXCL6 as candidate genes that might have the potential to serve as therapeutically relevant biomarkers in HCC patients. This might pave the way to improve patient selection for TACE in HCC patients beyond expert consensus.

Adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization timing after radical resection is an independent prognostic factor for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

It has been reported that postoperative adjuvant TACE (PA-TACE) treatment decreases recurrence and significantly improves the survival of patients who undergo radical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with high-risk recurrence factors. However, when to perform PA-TACE has not been fully studied.

Methods

We retrospectively collected the clinicopathologic characteristics of the patients with HCC between October 2013 and June 2020. The optimal cutoff value for PA-TACE time was determined based on the R package “maxstat”. Logistic regression and Cox regression analysis were used to determine the effect of the choice of PA-TACE timing on prognosis.

Results

The analysis was performed on 789 patients with HCC, and 484 patients were finally involved and were divided into training cohort (378) and validation cohort (106). The PA-TACE timing was found to be associated with survival outcomes. Multivariate logistic analysis found independent predictors of the PA-TACE timing, including gender and history of HBV. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that Ki-67, tumor size, MVI and the PA-TACE timing were independent prognostic factors for RFS in HCC patients.

Conclusions

Based on this study, HCC patients with high-risk recurrence factors can receive personalized assistance in undergoing PA-TACE treatment and improve their survival outcomes.

Development and Validation of a Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor A-associated Prognostic Model for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

High serum vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) levels have been identified as an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to construct a VEGF-included prognostic model to accurately perform individualized predictions of survival probability for patients with unresectable HCC.

Patients and Methods

From October 2018 to March 2021, 182 consecutive newly diagnosed patients with unresectable HCC were retrospectively enrolled. Baseline serum VEGF-A and other characteristics were collected for all patients. Univariate Cox regression analysis and LASSO regression model were applied to develop the prognostic model, enhanced bootstrap method with 100 replicates was performed to validate its discrimination and calibration. We compared the final model with China Liver Cancer (CNLC) stage, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and the model without the "VEGF". Finally, the established model was stratified by age.

Results

The VEGF-associated prognostic model we established has high accuracy with an overall C-index of 0.7892 after correction for optimistic estimates. The area under the curve (AUC) of the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year after correction were 0.843, 0.860, 0.833, respectively, and the calibration of the model was 0.1153, 0.1514, and 0.1711, respectively. The final model showed significant improvement in predicting OS when compared to the other models according to Harrell's C-index, The AUC of the time-dependent ROC, area under the decision curve analysis (AUDC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and continuous net reclassification index (NRI).

Conclusion

The VEGF-associated prognostic model may help to predict the survival probabilities of HCC patients with favorable performance and discrimination. However, further validation is required since we only verified this model using internal but not external data.

Identify optimal HAP series scores for unresectable HCC patients undergoing TACE plus sorafenib: A Chinese multicenter observational study

Background

Hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic (HAP) series scores have been proposed for prognostic prediction in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). However, their prognostic value in TACE plus sorafenib (TACE-S) remains unknown. Here, we aim to evaluate their prognostic performance in such conditions and identify the best model for this combination therapy.

Methods

Between January 2012 and December 2018, consecutive patients with uHCC receiving TACE-S were recruited from 15 tertiary hospitals in China. Cox regression analyses were used to investigate the prognostic values of baseline factors and every scoring system. Their prognostic performance and discriminatory performance were evaluated and confirmed in subgroup analyses.

Results

A total of 404 patients were enrolled. In the whole cohort, the median follow-up period was 44.2 (interquartile range (IQR), 33.2-60.7) months, the median overall survival (OS) time was 13.2 months, and 336 (83.2%) patients died at the end of the follow-up period. According to multivariate analyses, HAP series scores were independent prognostic indicators of OS. In addition, the C-index, Akaike information criterion (AIC) values, and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) indicated that modified HAP (mHAP)-III had the best predictive performance. Furthermore, the results remained consistent in most subsets of patients.

Conclusion

HAP series scores exhibited good predictive ability in uHCC patients accepting TACE-S, and the mHAP-III score was found to be superior to the other HAP series scores in predicting OS. Future prospective high-quality studies should be conducted to confirm our results and help with treatment decision-making.

Sarcopenia indicate poor survival in patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatic malignancies

BACKGROUND

Patient selection for transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has remained challenging. Currently used markers mainly reflect liver function and turned out as less reliable in larger clinical trials. The patients´ body composition has been linked with patient outcome in different cancers. Now, we analyzed the function of different parameters of the patient's body composition as prognostic and/ or predictive parameters in patients that received TACE.

METHODS

CT scans were used to assess five parameters of the individual body composition (skeletal muscle index (SMI), median muscular attenuation (MMA), bone mineral density (BMD) as well as the visceral and subcutaneous fat area) in 89 patients undergoing TACE. Results were correlated with tumor response to TACE and outcome of patients.

RESULTS

SMI and visceral fat area were significantly higher in male patients and among patients undergoing TACE for HCC compared to patients with liver metastases. While all parameters of the body composition did not predict response to TACE, patients with an SMI below the ideal cutoff value of 37.76 cm²/m² had a significantly reduced long-term outcome with a median overall survival of 404 days compared to 1321 days for patients with a high SMI. Moreover, the pre-interventional SMI turned out as an independent prognostic factor in a multivariate Cox regression model including clinicopathological parameters and laboratory markers of organ dysfunction and systemic inflammation (HR: 0.899, 95% CI 0.827-0.979, p = 0.014).

CONCLUSION

The pre-interventional SMI represents an independent prognostic factor for overall survival following TACE. Assessment of the individual body composition using routine CT scan might help to identify the ideal patients for TACE.

CT-radiomics and clinical risk scores for response and overall survival prognostication in TACE HCC patients

We aimed to identify hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who will respond to repetitive transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) to improve the treatment algorithm. Retrospectively, 61 patients (mean age, 65.3 years ± 10.0 [SD]; 49 men) with 94 HCC mRECIST target-lesions who had three consecutive TACE between 01/2012 and 01/2020 were included. Robust and non-redundant radiomics features were extracted from the 24 h post-embolization CT. Five different clinical TACE-scores were assessed. Seven different feature selection methods and machine learning models were used. Radiomics, clinical and combined models were built to predict response to TACE on a lesion-wise and patient-wise level as well as its impact on overall-survival prognostication. 29 target-lesions of 19 patients were evaluated in the test set. Response rates were 37.9% (11/29) on the lesion-level and 42.1% (8/19) on the patient-level. Radiomics top lesion-wise response prognostications was AUC 0.55-0.67. Clinical scores revealed top AUCs of 0.65-0.69. The best working model combined the radiomic feature LargeDependenceHighGrayLevelEmphasis and the clinical score mHAP_II_score_group with AUC = 0.70, accuracy = 0.72. We transferred this model on a patient-level to achieve AUC = 0.62, CI = 0.41-0.83. The two radiomics-clinical features revealed overall-survival prognostication of C-index = 0.67. In conclusion, a random forest model using the radiomic feature LargeDependenceHighGrayLevelEmphasis and the clinical mHAP-II-score-group seems promising for TACE response prognostication.

FAIL-T (AFP, AST, tumor sIze, ALT, and Tumor number): a model to predict intermediate-stage HCC patients who are not good candidates for TACE

Background

Patients with un-resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) are a diverse group with varying overall survival (OS). Despite the availability of several scoring systems for predicting OS, one of the unsolved problems is identifying patients who might not benefit from TACE. We aim to develop and validate a model for identifying HCC patients who would survive <6 months after their first TACE.

Methods

Patients with un-resectable HCC, BCLC stage 0-B, who received TACE as their first and only treatment between 2007 and 2020 were included in this study. Before the first TACE, demographic data, laboratory data, and tumor characteristics were obtained. Eligible patients were randomly allocated in a 2:1 ratio to training and validation sets. The former was used for model development using stepwise multivariate logistic regression, and the model was validated in the latter set.

Results

A total of 317 patients were included in the study (210 for the training set and 107 for the validation set). The baseline characteristics of the two sets were comparable. The final model (FAIL-T) included AFP, AST, tumor sIze, ALT, and Tumor number. The FAIL-T model yielded AUROCs of 0.855 and 0.806 for predicting 6-month mortality after TACE in the training and validation sets, respectively, while the "six-and-twelve" score showed AUROCs of 0.751 (P < 0.001) in the training set and 0.729 (P = 0.099) in the validation sets for the same purpose.

Conclusion

The final model is useful for predicting 6-month mortality in naive HCC patients undergoing TACE. HCC patients with high FAIL-T scores may not benefit from TACE, and other treatment options, if available, should be considered.

A Novel Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Sarcopenia Based TACE-Predict Model of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Purpose

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) was commonly applied in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients across BCLC A-C stages with heterogeneous outcomes in real-world practice. We aimed to develop a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and sarcopenia-based prognostic nomogram to estimate the prognosis of HCC patients after TACE treatment.

Patients and Methods

Between June 2013 and December 2019, a total of 364 HCC patients who underwent TACE were included and randomly assigned to the training (n=255) and the validation cohort (n=109). Sarcopenia was diagnosed based on the third lumbar vertebra skeletal muscle mass index (L3-SMI). The multivariate Cox proportional risk model was used to generate a nomogram.

Results

NLR ≥4.0, sarcopenia, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥200 ng/mL, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2 or 3, number of lesions (≥2), and maximum size of the lesion (≥5 cm) were independent predictors for overall survival (OS) (P < 0.05). The calibration curve shows that the predicted results agree well with the observed results. The time-dependent areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for OS at 1, 2, and 3 years predicted by the nomogram were 0.818/0.827, 0.742/0.823, and 0.748/0.836 in both training and validation cohorts. Nomogram can divide patients into low-, medium- and high-risk groups based on predictor factors. The C-indexes of the nomogram for OS were 0.782/0.728 in the training and validation cohorts, outperforming other currently available models.

Conclusion

A novel nomogram based on NLR and sarcopenia may be useful to predict the prognosis of HCC patients who underwent TACE across BCLC A-C stage patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most common cancers worldwide and represents a major global health-care challenge. Although viral hepatitis and alcohol remain important risk factors, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is rapidly becoming a dominant cause of hepatocellular carcinoma. A broad range of treatment options are available for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, including liver transplantation, surgical resection, percutaneous ablation, and radiation, as well as transarterial and systemic therapies. As such, clinical decision making requires a multidisciplinary team that longitudinally adapts the individual treatment strategy according to the patient's tumour stage, liver function, and performance status. With the approval of new first-line agents and second-line agents, as well as the establishment of immune checkpoint inhibitor-based therapies as standard of care, the treatment landscape of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma is more diversified than ever. Consequently, the outlook for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma has improved. However, the optimal sequencing of drugs remains to be defined, and predictive biomarkers are urgently needed to inform treatment selection. In this Seminar, we present an update on the causes, diagnosis, molecular classification, and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Establishment and validation of a novel prognostic model for non-virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Objective

The incidence of non-virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma (NV-HCC) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is steadily increasing. The aim of this study was to establish a prognostic model to evaluate the overall survival (OS) of NV-HCC patients.

Methods

Overall, 261 patients with NV-HCC were enrolled in this study. A prognostic model was developed by using LASSO-Cox regression analysis. The prognostic power was appraised by the concordance index (C-index), and the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (TD-ROC). Kaplan–Meier (K–M) survival analysis was used to evaluate the predictive ability in the respective subgroups stratified by the prognostic model risk score. A nomogram for survival prediction was established by integrating the prognostic model, TNM stage, and treatment.

Results

According to the LASSO-Cox regression results, the number of nodules, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ratio (SLR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were included for prognostic model construction. The C-index of the prognostic model was 0.759 (95% CI 0.723–0.797) in the development cohort and 0.796 (95% CI 0.737–0.855) in the validation cohort, and its predictive ability was better than TNM stage and treatment. The TD-ROC showed similar results. K–M survival analysis showed that NV-HCC patients with low risk scores had a better prognosis (P < 0.05). A nomogram based on the prognostic model, TNM stage, and treatment was constructed with sufficient discriminatory power with C-indexes of 0.78 and 0.85 in the development and validation cohort, respectively.

Conclusion

For NV-HCC, this prognostic model could predict an OS benefit for patients, which may assist clinicians in designing individualized therapeutic strategies.

The combination of sarcopenia and biochemical factors can predict the survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving transarterial chemoembolization

Background

Transarterial chemoembolization(TACE) is the suggested treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) not amenable to curative treatments. We investigated the role of sarcopenia on overall survival in HCC patients receiving TACE and proposed a new prognostic scoring system incorporating sarcopenia.

Materials and methods

We retrospectively analyzed 260 HCC patients who received TACE between 2010 and 2015. Total psoas muscle was measured on a cross-sectional CT image before the first TACE session. Sarcopenia was defined by the pre-determined sex-specific cutoff value. We assessed the impact of sarcopenia and other biochemical factors on the overall survival and compared the new scoring system with other prognostic scoring systems.

Results

One hundred and thirty patients (50%) were classified as sarcopenia before the first TACE. They were older with a higher male tendency and a significantly lower body mass index (BMI). Cox regression multivariate analysis demonstrated that sarcopenia, multiple tumors, maximal tumor diameter≥ 5cm, major venous thrombosis, sarcopenia, AFP ≥ 200 ng/ml, and albumin<3.5mg/dL were independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival in HCC patients receiving TACE. Our scoring system comprising these factors outperformed other major scoring systems in terms of predicting survival after TACE.

Conclusion

The current study demonstrated that sarcopenia was an independent prognostic factor for HCC undergoing TACE therapy. Our newly developed scoring system could effectively predict patient survival after TACE. Physicians could, based on the current score model, carefully select candidate patients for TACE treatment in order to optimize their survival. Further studies are warranted to validate our findings.

A Three-Gene Signature for Predicting the Prognosis of Patients Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization (TACE) and Identification of PD-184352 as a Potential Drug to Reverse Nonresponse to TACE

Background

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a first-line treatment for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Owing to differences in its efficacy across individuals, determining the indicators of patient response to TACE and finding approaches to reversing nonresponse thereto are necessary.

Methods

Transcriptome data were obtained from the GSE104580 dataset, in which patients were marked as having TACE response or nonresponse. We identified differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and performed Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis. We screened genes with a prognostic value for TACE in the HIF-1 signaling pathway by univariate regression analysis. By using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, we established a multigene signature in GSE14520, which we verified using a drug sensitivity test. The Connectivity Map (CMap) database was used to find potential drugs to reverse nonresponse to TACE.

Results

We constructed a prognostic signature consisting of three genes (erythropoietin (EPO), heme oxygenase 1 (HMOX1), and serine protease inhibitor 1 (SERPINE1)) that we validated by drug sensitivity test. After dividing patients treated with TACE into high- and low-risk groups based on this new signature, we showed that overall survival (OS) of the high-risk group was significantly lower than that of the low-risk group and that the risk score was an independent predictor of OS in patients treated with TACE. Based on our CMap findings, we speculated that PD-184352, an inhibitor of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MEK), had potential as a drug treatment to reverse nonresponse to TACE. We confirmed this speculation by using PD-184352 in a cell promotion experiment in a TACE environment.

Conclusion

We constructed a TACE-specific three-gene signature that could be used to predict HCC patients' responses to and prognosis after TACE treatment. PD-184352 might have potential as a drug to improve TACE efficacy.

Serum alanine aminotransferase to hemoglobin ratio and radiological features predict the prognosis of postoperative adjuvant TACE in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Objective

To explore the prognostic value of radiological features and serum indicators in patients treated with postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (PA-TACE) and develop a prognostic model to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with PA-TACE.

Method

We enrolled 112 patients (75 in the training cohort and 37 in the validation cohort) with HCC treated with PA-TACE after surgical resection at the Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University between January 2012 and June 2015. The independent OS predictors were determined using univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Decision curve analyses and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to verify the prognostic performance of the different models; the best model was selected to establish a multi-dimensional nomogram for predicting the OS of HCC patients treated with PA-TACE.

Result

Multivariate regression analyses indicated that rim-like arterial phase enhancement (IRE), peritumor capsule (PTC), and alanine aminotransferase to hemoglobin ratio (AHR) were independent predictors of OS after PA-TACE. The combination of AHR had the best clinical net benefit and we constructed a prognostic nomogram based on IRE, PTC, and AHR. The calibration curve showed good fit between the predicted nomogram’s curve and the observed curve.

Conclusion

Our preliminary study confirmed the prognostic value of AHR, PTC, and IRE and established a nomogram that can predict the OS after PA-TACE treatment in patients with HCC.