Impact of mating system on range size and niche breadth in Epipactis (Orchidaceae)

Forest Orchids under Future Climate Scenarios: Habitat Suitability Modelling to Inform Conservation Strategies

Orchidaceae is one of the largest and most diverse families of flowering plants in the world but also one of the most threatened. Climate change is a global driver of plant distribution and may be the cause of their disappearance in some regions. Forest orchids are associated with specific biotic and abiotic environmental factors, that influence their local presence/absence. Changes in these conditions can lead to significant differences in species distribution. We studied three forest orchids belonging to different genera (Cephalanthera, Epipactis and Limodorum) for their potential current and future distribution in a protected area (PA) of the Northern Apennines. A Habitat Suitability Model was constructed for each species based on presence-only data and the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was used for the modelling. Climatic, edaphic, topographic, anthropogenic and land cover variables were used as environmental predictors and processed in the model. The aim is to identify the environmental factors that most influence the current species distribution and the areas that are likely to contain habitats suitable for providing refuge for forest orchids and ensuring their survival under future scenarios. This will allow PA authorities to decide whether to invest more resources in conserving areas that are potential refuges for threatened species.

Historical biogeography and local adaptation explain population genetic structure in a widespread terrestrial orchid

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Historical changes in environmental conditions and colonization-extinction dynamics have a direct impact on the genetic structure of plant populations. However, understanding how past environmental conditions influenced the evolution of species with high gene flow is challenging when signals for genetic isolation and adaptation are swamped by gene flow. We investigated the spatial distribution and genetic structure of the widespread terrestrial orchid Epipactis helleborine to identify glacial refugia, characterize postglacial population dynamics and assess its adaptive potential.

METHODS

Ecological niche modelling was used to locate possible glacial refugia and postglacial recolonization opportunities of E. helleborine. A large single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) dataset obtained through genotyping by sequencing was used to define population genetic diversity and structure and to identify sources of postglacial gene flow. Outlier analyses were used to elucidate how adaptation to the local environment contributed to population divergence.

KEY RESULTS

The distribution of climatically suitable areas was restricted during the Last Glacial Maximum to the Mediterranean, south-western Europe and small areas in the Alps and Carpathians. Within-population genetic diversity was high in E. helleborine (mean expected heterozygosity, 0.373 ± 0.006; observed heterozygosity, 0.571 ± 0.012; allelic richness, 1.387 ± 0.007). Italy and central Europe are likely to have acted as important genetic sources during postglacial recolonization. Adaptive SNPs were associated with temperature, elevation and precipitation.

CONCLUSIONS

Forests in the Mediterranean and Carpathians are likely to have acted as glacial refugia for Epipactis helleborine. Postglacial migration northwards and to higher elevations resulted in the dispersal and diversification of E. helleborine in central Europe and Italy, and to geographical isolation and divergent adaptation in Greek and Italian populations. Distinguishing adaptive from neutral genetic diversity allowed us to conclude that E. helleborine has a high adaptive potential to climate change and demonstrates that signals of adaptation and historical isolation can be identified even in species with high gene flow.

Range Size and Niche Breadth as Predictors of Climate-Induced Habitat Change in Epipactis (Orchidaceae)

While there is mounting evidence that ongoing changes in the climate system are shifting species ranges poleward and to higher altitudes, responses to climate change vary considerably between species. In general, it can be expected that species responses to climate change largely depend on how broad their ecological niches are, but evidence is still scant. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted future climate change on the availability of suitable habitat for 14 Epipactis (Orchidaceae) species, and tested whether habitat specialists would experience greater changes in the extent of their habitats than habitat generalists. We used Maxent to model the ecological niche of each species in terms of climate, soil, elevation and land-use and projected it onto climate scenarios predicted for 2061–2080. To test the hypothesis that temperate terrestrial orchid species with small ranges or small niche breadths may be at greater risk under climate change than species with wide ranges or large niche breadths, we related niche breadth in both geographic and environmental space to changes in size and location of suitable habitat. The habitat distributions of half of the species shifted northwards in future projections. The area of suitable habitat increased for eight species but decreased for the remaining six species. If expansion at the leading edge of the distribution was not possible, the area of suitable habitat decreased for 12 species. Species with wide niche breadth in geographic space experienced greater northwards expansions and higher habitat suitability scores than species with small niche breadth. Niche breadth in environmental space was not significantly related to change in habitat distribution. Overall, these results indicate that terrestrial orchid species with a wide distribution will be more capable of shifting their distributions under climate change than species with a limited distribution, but only if they are fully able to expand into habitats at the leading edge of their distributions.

Rules of Plant Species Ranges: Applications for Conservation Strategies

Earth is changing rapidly and so are many plant species’ ranges. Here, we synthesize eco-evolutionary patterns found in plant range studies and how knowledge of species ranges can inform our understanding of species conservation in the face of global change. We discuss whether general biogeographic “rules” are reliable and how they can be used to develop adaptive conservation strategies of native plant species across their ranges. Rules considered include (1) factors that set species range limits and promote range shifts; (2) the impact of biotic interactions on species range limits; (3) patterns of abundance and adaptive properties across species ranges; (4) patterns of gene flow and their implications for genetic rescue, and (5) the relationship between range size and conservation risk. We conclude by summarizing and evaluating potential species range rules to inform future conservation and management decisions. We also outline areas of research to better understand the adaptive capacity of plants under environmental change and the properties that govern species ranges. We advise conservationists to extend their work to specifically consider peripheral and novel populations, with a particular emphasis on small ranges. Finally, we call for a global effort to identify, synthesize, and analyze prevailing patterns or rules in ecology to help speed conservation efforts.