Defining the population attributable fraction for infectious diseases

Association of healthy lifestyle factors and genetic liability with bipolar disorder: Findings from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

The interplay between genetic and lifestyle factors in the development of bipolar disorder (BD) remains unclear.

METHODS

A cohort study was carried out on 365,517 participants from the UK Biobank. Lifestyle scores, based on smoking, physical activity, diet, alcohol consumption, sedentary behavior, sleep duration, and social contact, were grouped as favorable (scores 6-7), intermediate (scores 4-5), or unfavorable (scores 0-3). The BD polygenic risk score (PRS) was also categorized into high, intermediate, and low-risk groups using PRS tertiles. Cox regression models determined hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for BD.

RESULTS

During the 12.9-year follow-up, 529 individuals developed BD. Comparing those with favorable lifestyles to those with unfavorable participants, the HR of developing BD was 3.28 (95 % CI, 2.76-3.89). Similarly, individuals with a high PRS had a risk of 3.20 (95 % CI, 2.83-3.63) compared to those with a low PRS. Notably, individuals with both a high PRS and an unfavorable lifestyle had a significantly higher risk of BD (HR = 6.31, 95 % CI, 4.14-9.63) compared to those with a low PRS and a favorable lifestyle. Additionally, the interaction between PRS and lifestyle contributed an additional risk, with a relative excess risk of 1.74 (95 % CI, 0.40-3.07) and an attributable proportion due to the interaction of 0.37 (95 % CI, 0.16-0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that genetic liability for BD, measured as PRS, and lifestyle have an additive effect on the risk of developing BD. A favorable lifestyle was associated with a reduced risk of developing BD.

Transmission matrices used in epidemiologic modelling

Mixing matrices are included in infectious disease models to reflect transmission opportunities between population strata. These matrices were originally constructed on the basis of theoretical considerations and most of the early work in this area originates from research on sexually transferred diseases in the 80s, in response to AIDS. Later work in the 90s populated these matrices on the basis of survey data gathered to capture transmission risks for respiratory diseases. We provide an overview of developments in the construction of matrices for capturing transmission opportunities in populations. Such transmission matrices are useful for epidemiologic modelling to capture within and between stratum transmission and can be informed from theoretical mixing assumptions, informed by empirical evidence gathered through investigation as well as generated on the basis of data. Links to summary measures and threshold conditions are also provided.

Economic costs of obesity: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Obesity is a growing public health problem leading to substantial economic impact. This study aimed to summarize the economic impact of obesity and to critically analyze the methods used in the cost-of-illness (COI) studies on obesity.

METHODS

We conducted systematic search in PubMed and Scopus from September 1, 2016, to July 22, 2022. Original COI studies estimating the economic cost of obesity and/or overweight in at least one country, published in English were included. To facilitate the comparison of estimates across countries, we converted the cost estimates of different years to 2022 purchasing power parity (PPP) values using each country's consumer price index (CPI) and PPP conversion rate.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies were included. All studies employed a prevalence-based approach using Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) methodology. About half of the included studies (53%) were conducted in high-income countries while the others (47%) were conducted in middle-income countries. The economic burden of obesity ranged between PPP 15 million in Brazil to PPP 126 billion in the USA, in the year 2022. Direct medical costs accounted for 0.7% to 17.8% of the health system expenditure. Furthermore, the total costs of obesity ranged from 0.05% to 2.42% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). Of the seven studies that estimated both direct and indirect costs, indirect costs accounted for the largest portion of five studies. Nevertheless, a variety in methodology across studies was identified. The number of co-morbidities included in the analysis varied across studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Although there was a variety of methodologies across studies, consistent evidence indicated that the economic burden of obesity was substantial. Obesity prevention and control should be a public health priority, especially among countries with high prevalence of obesity.

Global Diabetes Prevalence in COVID-19 Patients and Contribution to COVID-19- Related Severity and Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 and diabetes both contribute to large global disease burdens.

PURPOSE

To quantify the prevalence of diabetes in various COVID-19 disease stages and calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of diabetes to COVID-19-related severity and mortality.

DATA SOURCES

Systematic review identified 729 studies with 29,874,938 COVID-19 patients.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies detailed the prevalence of diabetes in subjects with known COVID-19 diagnosis and severity.

DATA EXTRACTION

Study information, COVID-19 disease stages, and diabetes prevalence were extracted.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The pooled prevalence of diabetes in stratified COVID-19 groups was 14.7% (95% CI 12.5-16.9) among confirmed cases, 10.4% (7.6-13.6) among nonhospitalized cases, 21.4% (20.4-22.5) among hospitalized cases, 11.9% (10.2-13.7) among nonsevere cases, 28.9% (27.0-30.8) among severe cases, and 34.6% (32.8-36.5) among deceased individuals, respectively. Multivariate metaregression analysis explained 53-83% heterogeneity of the pooled prevalence. Based on a modified version of the comparative risk assessment model, we estimated that the overall PAF of diabetes was 9.5% (7.3-11.7) for the presence of severe disease in COVID-19-infected individuals and 16.8% (14.8-18.8) for COVID-19-related deaths. Subgroup analyses demonstrated that countries with high income levels, high health care access and quality index, and low diabetes disease burden had lower PAF of diabetes contributing to COVID-19 severity and death.

LIMITATIONS

Most studies had a high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of diabetes increases with COVID-19 severity, and diabetes accounts for 9.5% of severe COVID-19 cases and 16.8% of deaths, with disparities according to country income, health care access and quality index, and diabetes disease burden.

Cardia and non-cardia gastric cancer risk associated with Helicobacter pylori in East Asia and the West: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimation of population attributable fraction

OBJECTIVES

To assess the region-specific relative risk of cardia/non-cardia gastric cancer (CGC/NCGC) associated with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and quantify its contribution to gastric cancer burden using population attributable fraction (PAF).

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Central databases were searched by two reviewers until April 20, 2022. The association between H. pylori infection and NCGC/CGC was assessed using pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). PAF was calculated using the formula of H. pylori prevalence and the pooled OR.

RESULTS

One hundred and eight studies were included. A significant association was observed between H. pylori infection and NCGC in East Asia (OR, 4.36; 95% CI: 3.54-5.37) and the West (OR, 4.03; 95% CI: 2.59-6.27). Regarding CGC, a significant association was found only in East Asia (OR, 2.86; 95% CI: 2.26-3.63), not in the West (OR, 0.80; 95% CI: 0.61-1.05). For studies with a follow-up time of ≥10 years, pooled ORs for NCGC and CGC in East Asia were 5.58 (95% CI: 4.08-7.64) and 3.86 (95% CI: 2.69-5.55), respectively. Pooled OR for NCGC was 6.80 (95% CI: 3.78-12.25) in the West. PAFs showed that H. pylori infection accounted for 71.2% of NCGC, 60.7% of CGC in East Asia, and 73.2% of NCGC in the West.

CONCLUSIONS

Gastric cancer burden associated with H. pylori infection exhibits important geographical differences. Prolonged follow-up period could overcome the underestimation of the magnitude of the association between H. pylori infection and CGC/NCGC. Customized strategies for H. pylori screening and eradication should be implemented to prevent gastric cancer.

Association of genetic risk and lifestyle with incident adult-onset asthma in the UK Biobank cohort

Background

Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to the development of asthma, but whether unfavourable lifestyle is associated with similar increases in risk of developing asthma among individuals with varying genetic risk levels remains unknown.

Methods

A healthy lifestyle score was constructed using body mass index, smoking status, physical activities and dietary pattern to further categorise into ideal, intermediate and poor groups. Genetic risk of asthma was also categorised as three groups based on the tertiles of polygenic risk score established using 212 reported and verified single-nucleotide polymorphisms of European ancestry in the UK Biobank study. We examined the risk of incident asthma related with each lifestyle level in each genetic risk group by Cox regression models.

Results

Finally, 327 124 participants without baseline asthma were included, and 157 320 (48.1%) were male. During follow-up, 6238 participants (1.9%) developed asthma. Compared to ideal lifestyle in a low genetic risk group, poor lifestyle was associated with a hazard ratio of up to 3.87 (95% CI, 2.98-5.02) for developing asthma in a high genetic risk group. There was interaction between genetic risk and lifestyle, and the population-attributable fraction of lifestyle and genetic risk were 30.2% and 30.0% respectively.

Conclusion

In this large contemporary population, lifestyle and genetic factors jointly play critical roles in the development of asthma, and the effect values of lifestyle on incident adult-onset asthma were greater than that of genetic risk. Our findings highlighted the necessity of a comprehensive intervention for the prevention of asthma despite the genetic risk.

The temporal trend of disease burden attributable to metabolic risk factors in China, 1990-2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study

Background and aims

The disease burden attributable to metabolic risk factors is rapidly increasing in China, especially in older people. The objective of this study was to (i) estimate the pattern and trend of six metabolic risk factors and attributable causes in China from 1990 to 2019, (ii) ascertain its association with societal development, and (iii) compare the disease burden among the Group of 20 (G20) countries.

Methods

The main outcome measures were disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and mortality (deaths) attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), high systolic blood pressure (HSBP), high low-density lipoprotein (HLDL) cholesterol, high body-mass index (HBMI), kidney dysfunction (KDF), and low bone mineral density (LBMD). The average annual percent change (AAPC) between 1990 and 2019 was analyzed using Joinpoint regression.

Results

For all six metabolic risk factors, the rate of DALYs and death increased with age, accelerating for individuals older than 60 and 70 for DALYs and death, respectively. The AAPC value in rate of DALYs and death were higher in male patients than in female patients across 20 age groups. A double-peak pattern was observed for AAPC in the rate of DALYs and death, peaking at age 20-49 and at age 70-95 plus. The age-standardized rate of DALYs increased for HBMI and LBMD, decreased for HFPG, HSBP, KDF, and remained stable for HLDL from 1990 to 2019. In terms of age-standardized rate of DALYs, there was an increasing trend of neoplasms and neurological disorders attributable to HFPG; diabetes and kidney diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, digestive diseases to HBMI; unintentional injuries to LBMD; and musculoskeletal disorders to KDF. Among 19 countries of Group 20, in 2019, the age-standardized rate of DALYs and death were ranked fourth to sixth for HFPG, HSBP, and HLDL, but ranked 10th to 15th for LBMD, KDF, and HBMI, despite the number of DALYs and death ranked first to second for six metabolic risk factors.

Conclusions

Population aging continuously accelerates the metabolic risk factor driven disease burden in China. Comprehensive and tight control of metabolic risk factors before 20 and 70 may help to mitigate the increasing disease burden and achieve healthy aging, respectively.

Associations of combined lifestyle and genetic risks with incident psoriasis: A prospective cohort study among UK Biobank participants of European ancestry

BACKGROUND

Whether the lifestyle is associated with the risk of psoriasis in the presence of different genetic risk levels remains unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the gene-behavior interaction in association with incident psoriasis.

METHODS

This study is based on the data from the UK Biobank, which recruited 500,000 participants. Genetic risk was categorized into low, intermediate, and high groups. The lifestyle score comprised the body mass index, smoking, physical activity, and diet and was also categorized into the ideal, intermediate, and poor groups. Within each genetic risk group, the risks of incident psoriasis associated with each lifestyle level were investigated and compared with the low genetic risk and ideal lifestyle group.

RESULTS

Compared with the low genetic risk and ideal lifestyle group, the poor lifestyle and high genetic risk group was associated with a hazard ratio of up to 4.625 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.920-7.348) for psoriasis. There was no interaction between genetic risk and lifestyle. The population attributable fractions of lifestyle and genetic risk were 32.2% (95% CI, 25.1%-38.6%) and 13.0% (95% CI, 3.2%-21.8%), respectively.

LIMITATIONS

No verification in other independently ascertained populations.

CONCLUSION

Lifestyle factors are predictive of the risk of incident psoriasis independent of genetic risk, and the relative impact of lifestyle factors was greater than that of genetic risk.

The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies

Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Mapping social distancing measures to the reproduction number for COVID-19

In the absence of a vaccine, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has been controlled by preventing person-to-person interactions via social distancing measures. In order to re-open parts of society, policy-makers need to consider how combinations of measures will affect transmission and understand the trade-offs between them. We use age-specific social contact data, together with epidemiological data, to quantify the components of the COVID-19 reproduction number. We estimate the impact of social distancing policies on the reproduction number by turning contacts on and off based on context and age. We focus on the impact of re-opening schools against a background of wider social distancing measures. We demonstrate that pre-collected social contact data can be used to provide a time-varying estimate of the reproduction number (R). We find that following lockdown (when R= 0.7, 95% CI 0.6, 0.8), opening primary schools has a modest impact on transmission (R = 0.89, 95% CI 0.82-0.97) as long as other social interactions are not increased. Opening secondary and primary schools is predicted to have a larger impact (R = 1.22, 95% CI 1.02-1.53). Contact tracing and COVID security can be used to mitigate the impact of increased social mixing to some extent; however, social distancing measures are still required to control transmission. Our approach has been widely used by policy-makers to project the impact of social distancing measures and assess the trade-offs between them. Effective social distancing, contact tracing and COVID security are required if all age groups are to return to school while controlling transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Population Attributable Fraction of Helicobacter pylori Infection-Related Gastric Cancer in Korea: A Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

This study aimed to determine the proportion of gastric cancer attributable to Helicobactor pylori in the Korean population. Infection with H. pylori has been recognized as the most significant risk factor for gastric cancer. In Korea, gastric cancer is the most common cancer that accounted for 13.3% of all cancers in 2016. In particular, men are most commonly diagnosed with gastric cancer; the age-standardized incidence rate in men is 49.6 per 100,000, which is more than twice the incidence in women.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated as a function of the relative risk (RR) of gastric cancer associated with H. pylori infections. To estimate PAF of gastric cancer due to H. pylori, the prevalence of H. pylori infections was extrapolated for the year of 1990 and a pooled RR was obtained by conducting a meta-analysis of studies recently published in Korea.

RESULTS

The estimated prevalence of H. pylori was 76.4% in men and 71.9% in women. The RRs (95% confidence interval) pooled from case-control studies using a random effects model was 1.69 (1.29-2.22) for overall gastric cancer and 2.17 (1.04-4.55) for non-cardia gastric cancer. Using the RR for overall gastric cancer, the estimated PAFs due to H. pylori were 34.5% in men and 33.2% in women.

CONCLUSION

The occurrence of gastric cancer in Koreans may be affected by other risk factors in addition to H. pylori infection, which may contribute to increasing baseline risk for gastric cancer.

Lifestyle Risk Factors and the Population Attributable Fractions for Overweight and Obesity in Chinese Students of Zhejiang Province

Objectives: To assess the relationship between modifiable lifestyle factors and risk of overweight/obesity in Chinese students, and to evaluate the predicting prevalence of overweight if the lifestyle risk factors were removed. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 40,141 students in grade three and above (8-24yrs) in 2019 in Zhejiang Province, China. Physical examination was performed, and a self-administered questionnaire was used to collect lifestyle information, including dietary behavior, physical activity, TV watching, sleeping, smoking, drinking, and tooth-brushing habits. Logistic regression models were performed to assess the relationship between overweight/obesity and a series of lifestyle factors. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were used to calculate the predicting prevalence of overweight/obesity if lifestyle risk factors were removed. Results: The prevalence of overweight/obesity of participants was 25.5% (male 32.3%, female 18.1%). Overweight/obesity were associated with adverse lifestyle factors, such as watch TV ≥1 h/day (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.11-1.22), insufficient sleep (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.11-1.22), and irregular toothbrushing habits (OR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01-1.39). Based on the calculated PAFs, the predicted prevalence of overweight/obesity would decline moderately if lifestyle factors were modified, with the magnitudes of decrease vary by sex, age and residence. Generally, a larger reduction was estimated if the sleeping time was increased and TV time was reduced, with the prevalence of overweight/obesity decreased by 1.1% (95% CI: 0.7, 1.5%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.2%), respectively. Conclusions: Predicted prevalence of overweight/ obesity in Chinese students may decrease if modifiable lifestyle risk factors were removed. The attributable risk for obesity of lifestyle behaviors varied in age, sex and residence groups. The findings of this study may provide insights for planning and optimizing future obesity intervention endeavors.

Increased incarceration rates drive growing tuberculosis burden in prisons and jeopardize overall tuberculosis control in Paraguay

Incarcerated populations are at high-risk to develop tuberculosis (TB), however their impact on the population-level tuberculosis epidemic has been scarcely studied. We aimed to describe the burden and trends of TB among incarcerated populations over time in Paraguay, its clinical and epidemiological differences and the population attributable fraction. This is an observational, descriptive study including all TB cases notified to the National TB control Program in Paraguay during the period 2009–2018. We also used case registries of prisoners diagnosed with tuberculosis from the Minister of Justice. The population attributable fraction of TB in the community due to incarcerated cases was estimated through Levin’s formula. The characteristics of TB cases in and outside of prison were compared as well as the characteristics of TB in prisons were modified over time. During 2009–2018, 2764 (9.7%) of the 28,534 TB reported cases in Paraguay occurred in prisons. The number of prisoners in Paraguay increased from 6258 in 2009 to 14,627 in 2018 (incarceration rate, 101 to 207 per 100,000 persons) while the number of TB cases among prisoners increased by 250% (n = 192 in 2009 versus n = 480 in 2018). The annual TB notification rate among male prisoners was 3218 and 3459 per 100,000 inmates in 2009 and 2018, respectively. The percentage of all TB cases occurring among prisoners increased from 7.1% in 2009 to 14.5% in 2018. The relative risk of TB in prisons compared to community was 70.3 (95% CI, 67.7–73.1); the overall population attributable risk was 9.5%. Among the 16 penitentiary centers in the country, two of them—Tacumbú (39.0%) and Ciudad del Este (23.3%)—represent two thirds of all TB cases in prisons. TB among inmates is predominantly concentrated in those 20–34 years old (77.3% of all), twice the percentage of cases for the same age group outside of prison. Our findings show that the TB epidemic in prisons represents one of the most important challenges for TB control in Paraguay, especially in the country’s largest cities. Appropriate TB control measures among incarcerated populations are needed and may have substantial impact on the overall TB burden in the country.

Population attributable fractions of mortality in people living with HIV: roles of delayed antiretroviral therapy, hepatitis coinfections and social factors

OBJECTIVES

Despite free access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 1996 onward, and treatment for all people living with HIV (PLWHIV) from 2013, mortality in Brazil has not homogeneously decreased. We investigated to what extent delayed ART, hepatitis coinfections and sociodemographic factors predict all-cause mortality in Brazilian PLWHIV.

DESIGN

We included PLWHIV at least 18 years, with complete CD4 cell count data, followed up between 2007 and 2015 in Brazil.

METHODS

After multiple imputation, an extended Cox model helped estimate the effects of fixed and time-varying covariates on mortality.

RESULTS

The study population (n = 411 028) were mainly male (61%), white (55%), 40 years or less (61%), heterosexually HIV infected (71%), living in the Southeast region (48%) and had basic education (79%). Hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus coinfection prevalences were 2.5 and 1.4%, respectively. During a 4-year median follow-up, 61 630 deaths occurred and the mortality rate was 3.45 (95% confidence interval: 3.42-3.47) per 100 person-years. Older age, male sex, non-white ethnicity, illiteracy/basic education and living outside the Southeast and Central-West regions were independently associated with increased mortality. The main modifiable predictors of mortality were delayed ART (i.e. CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl at ART initiation) (adjusted population attributable fraction: 14.20% [95% confidence interval: 13.81-14.59]), being ART-untreated (14.06% [13.54-14.59]) and ART-treated with unrecorded CD4 at ART initiation (5.74% [5.26-6.21]). Hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus coinfections accounted for 2.44 [2.26-2.62] and 0.42% [0.31-0.53] of mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The current study demonstrates that besides early ART and coinfection control, actions targeting males, non-whites and illiterate people and those with basic education are important to reduce avoidable deaths among Brazilian PLWHIV.

Evaluating the Risk Factors for Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Infection in an Endemic Area of Vietnam

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) causes enteritis, vomiting, watery diarrhea, and high mortality in suckling pigs, threatening the swine industry. Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) re-emerged globally in 2013 in many important swine-producing countries in Asia and the Americas. Several studies have identified the risk factors for the spread of PEDV in acute outbreaks. However, limited information is available on the risk factors for the transmission of PEDV in endemic regions. We hypothesized that poor biosecurity, location, and some social or cultural practices are the main risk factors for PEDV transmission in the Vietnamese pig population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk factors for the transmission of PEDV in an endemic area in Vietnam. In this case–control study, questionnaires containing 51 questions were completed for 92 PEDV-positive and 95 PEDV-negative farms. A logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the risk factors associated with PEDV infection. Province and the total number of pigs were included as random effects to determine their influence on the risk of PEDV infection. Twenty-nine variables of interest that have been associated with PEDV status were analyzed in a univariate analysis (P <0.20), with backward stepwise selection. Only three of these 29 variables in four models remained significant PEDV risk factors in the final model: farrow-to-wean production type, distance from the farm to the slaughterhouse (<1,000 m), and the presence of chickens on site (P <0.05). This is the first study to identify the main risk factors for PEDV infection in an endemic area. Our findings suggest that hygiene measures should be strictly implemented on farms for the effective control and prevention of PEDV infection.

Global and regional estimates of the contribution of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection to HIV incidence: a population attributable fraction analysis using published epidemiological data

BACKGROUND

A 2017 systematic review and meta-analysis of 55 prospective studies found the adjusted risk of HIV acquisition to be at least tripled in individuals with herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection. We aimed to assess the potential contribution of HSV-2 infection to HIV incidence, given an effect of HSV-2 on HIV acquisition.

METHODS

We used a classic epidemiological formula to estimate the global and regional (WHO regional) population attributable fraction (PAF) and number of incident HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 infection by age (15-24 years, 25-49 years, and 15-49 years), sex, and timing of HSV-2 infection (established vs recently acquired). Estimates were calculated by incorporating HSV-2 and HIV infection data with pooled relative risk (RR) estimates for the effect of HSV-2 infection on HIV acquisition from a systematic review and meta-analysis. Because HSV-2 and HIV have shared sexual and other risk factors, in addition to HSV-related biological factors that increase HIV risk, we only used RR estimates that were adjusted for potential confounders.

FINDINGS

An estimated 420 000 (95% uncertainty interval 317 000-546 000; PAF 29·6% [22·9-37·1]) of 1·4 million sexually acquired incident HIV infections in individuals aged 15-49 years in 2016 were attributable to HSV-2 infection. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV was largest for the WHO African region (PAF 37·1% [28·7-46·3]), women (34·8% [23·5-45·0]), individuals aged 25-49 years (32·4% [25·4-40·2]), and established HSV-2 infection (26·8% [19·7-34·5]).

INTERPRETATION

A large burden of HIV is likely to be attributable to HSV-2 infection, even if the effect of HSV-2 infection on HIV had been imperfectly measured in studies providing adjusted RR estimates, potentially because of residual confounding. The contribution is likely to be greatest in areas where HSV-2 is highly prevalent, particularly Africa. New preventive interventions against HSV-2 infection could not only improve the quality of life of millions of people by reducing the prevalence of herpetic genital ulcer disease, but could also have an additional, indirect effect on HIV transmission.

FUNDING

WHO.