Projecting the epidemiological effect, cost-effectiveness and transmission of HIV drug resistance in Vietnam associated with viral load monitoring strategies

A systematic literature review of economic evaluation studies of interventions impacting antimicrobial resistance

BACKGROUND

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is accelerated by widespread and inappropriate use of antimicrobials. Many countries, including those in low- and middle- income contexts, have started implementing interventions to tackle AMR. However, for many interventions there is little or no economic evidence with respect to their cost-effectiveness. To help better understand the scale of this evidence gap, we conducted a systematic literature review to provide a comprehensive summary on the value for money of different interventions affecting AMR.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted of economic evaluations on interventions addressing AMR. a narrative synthesis of findings was produced. Systematic searches for relevant studies were performed across relevant databases and grey literature sources such as unpublished studies, reports, and other relevant documents. All identified economic evaluation studies were included provided that they reported an economic outcome and stated that the analysed intervention aimed to affect AMR or antimicrobial use in the abstract. Studies that reported clinical endpoints alone were excluded. Selection for final inclusion and data extraction was performed by two independent reviewers. A quality assessment of the evidence used in the included studies was also conducted.

RESULTS

28,597 articles were screened and 35 articles were identified that satisfied the inclusion criteria. The review attempted to answer the following questions: (1) What interventions to address AMR have been the subject of an economic evaluation? (2) In what types of setting (e.g. high-income, low-income, regions etc.) have these economic evaluations been focused? (3) Which interventions have been estimated to be cost-effective, and has this result been replicated in other settings/contexts? (4) What economic evaluation methods or techniques have been used to evaluate these interventions? (5) What kind and quality of data has been used in conducting economic evaluations for these interventions?

DISCUSSION

The review is one of the first of its kind, and the most recent, to systematically review the literature on the cost-effectiveness of AMR interventions. This review addresses an important evidence gap in the economics of AMR and can assist AMR researchers' understanding of the state of the economic evaluation literature, and therefore inform future research. Systematic review registration PROSPERO (CRD42020190310).

The Cost-Effectiveness of Adapting and Implementing a Brief Intervention to Target Frequent Alcohol Use Among Persons with HIV in Vietnam

Brief interventions to reduce frequent alcohol use among persons with HIV (PWH) are evidence-based, but resource-constrained settings must contend with competition for health resources. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two intervention arms compared to the standard of care (SOC) in a three-arm randomized control trial targeting frequent alcohol use in PWH through increasing the percent days abstinent from alcohol and viral suppression. We estimated incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from a modified societal perspective and a 1-year time horizon using a Markov model of health outcomes. The two-session brief intervention (BI), relative to the six-session combined intervention (CoI), was more effective and less costly; the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness of the BI relative to the SOC, was $525 per QALY gained. The BI may be cost-effective for the HIV treatment setting; the health utility gained from viral suppression requires further exploration.

The role of HIV viral load in mathematical models of HIV transmission and treatment: a review

Introduction

HIV viral load (VL) is accepted as a key biomarker in HIV transmission and pathogenesis. This paper presents a review of the role of VL testing in mathematical models for HIV prevention and treatment.

Methods

A search for simulation models of HIV was conducted in PubMed, yielding a total of 1210 studies. Publications before the year 2000, studies involving animals and analyses that did not use mathematical simulations were excluded. The full text of eligible articles was sourced and information about the intervention and population being modelled, type of modelling approach and disease monitoring strategy was extracted.

Results and discussion

A total of 279 studies related to HIV simulation models were included in the review, though only 17 (6%) included consideration of VL or VL testing and were evaluated in detail. Within the studies that included assessment of VL, routine monitoring was the focus, and usually in comparison to alternate monitoring strategies such as clinical or CD4 count-based monitoring. The majority of remaining models focus on the impact or delivery of antiretroviral therapy (n=68; 27%), pre-exposure prophylaxis (n=28; 11%) and/or HIV testing (n=24; 9%) on population estimates of HIV epidemiology and exclude consideration of VL. Few studies investigate or compare alternate VL monitoring frequencies, and only a small number of studies overall (3%) include consideration of vulnerable population groups such as pregnant women or infants.

Conclusions

There are very few simulations of HIV treatment or prevention that include VL measures, despite VL being recognised as the key determinant of both transmission and treatment outcomes. With growing emphasis on VL monitoring as key tool for population-level HIV control, there is a clear need for simulations of HIV epidemiology based on VL.

Performance of Cepheid Xpert HIV-1 viral load plasma assay to accurately detect treatment failure

BACKGROUND

Coverage of viral load testing remains low with only half of the patients in need having adequate access. Alternative technologies to high throughput centralized machines can be used to support viral load scale-up; however, clinical performance data are lacking. We conducted a meta-analysis comparing the Cepheid Xpert HIV-1 viral load plasma assay to traditional laboratory-based technologies.

METHODS

Cepheid Xpert HIV-1 and comparator laboratory technology plasma viral load results were provided from 13 of the 19 eligible studies, which accounted for a total of 3790 paired data points. We used random effects models to determine the accuracy and misclassification at various treatment failure thresholds (detectable, 200, 400, 500, 600, 800 and 1000 copies/ml).

RESULTS

Thirty percent of viral load test results were undetectable, while 45% were between detectable and 10 000 copies/ml and the remaining 25% were above 10 000 copies/ml. The median Xpert viral load was 119 copies/ml and the median comparator viral load was 157 copies/ml, while the log10 bias was 0.04 (0.02-0.07). The sensitivity and specificity to detect treatment failure were above 95% at all treatment failure thresholds, except for detectable, at which the sensitivity was 93.33% (95% confidence interval: 88.2-96.3) and specificity was 80.56% (95% CI: 64.6-90.4).

CONCLUSION

The Cepheid Xpert HIV-1 viral load plasma assay results were highly comparable to laboratory-based technologies with limited bias and high sensitivity and specificity to detect treatment failure. Alternative specimen types and technologies that enable decentralized testing services can be considered to expand access to viral load.

Assessing frontline HIV service provider efficiency using data envelopment analysis: a case study of Philippine social hygiene clinics (SHCs)

BACKGROUND

Globally, local and frontline HIV service delivery units have been deployed to halt the HIV epidemic. However, with the limited resources, there is a need to understand how these units can deliver their optimum outputs/outcomes efficiently given the inputs. This study aims to determine the efficiency of the social hygiene clinics (SHC) in the Philippines as well as to determine the association of the meta-predictor to the efficiencies.

METHODS

In determining efficiency, we used the variables from two data sources namely the 2012 Philippine HIV Costing study and 2011 Integrated HIV Behavioral and Serologic Surveillance, as inputs and outputs, respectively. Various data management protocols and initial assumptions in data matching, imputation and variable selection, were used to create the final dataset with 9 SHCs. We used data envelopment analysis (DEA) to analyse the efficiency, while variations in efficiencies were analysed using Tobit regression with area-specific meta-predictors.

RESULTS

There were potentially inefficient use of limited resources among sampled SHC in both aggregate and key populations. Tobit regression results indicated that income was positively associated with efficiency, while HIV prevalence was negatively associated with the efficiency variations among the SHCs.

CONCLUSIONS

We were able to determine the inefficiently performing SHCs in the Philippines. Though currently inefficient, these SHCs may adjust their inputs and outputs to become efficient in the future. While there were indications of income and HIV prevalence to be associated with the efficiency variations, the results of this case study may only be limited in generalisability, thus further studies are warranted.

Point-of-Care HIV Viral Load Testing: an Essential Tool for a Sustainable Global HIV/AIDS Response

The global public health community has set ambitious treatment targets to end the HIV/AIDS pandemic. With the notable absence of a cure, the goal of HIV treatment is to achieve sustained suppression of an HIV viral load, which allows for immunological recovery and reduces the risk of onward HIV transmission. Monitoring HIV viral load in people living with HIV is therefore central to maintaining effective individual antiretroviral therapy as well as monitoring progress toward achieving population targets for viral suppression. The capacity for laboratory-based HIV viral load testing has increased rapidly in low- and middle-income countries, but implementation of universal viral load monitoring is still hindered by several barriers and delays. New devices for point-of-care HIV viral load testing may be used near patients to improve HIV management by reducing the turnaround time for clinical test results. The implementation of near-patient testing using these new and emerging technologies may be an essential tool for ensuring a sustainable response that will ultimately enable an end to the HIV/AIDS pandemic. In this report, we review the current and emerging technology, the evidence for decentralized viral load monitoring by non-laboratory health care workers, and the additional considerations for expanding point-of-care HIV viral load testing.

Population-level mathematical modeling of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Mathematical transmission models are increasingly used to guide public health interventions for infectious diseases, particularly in the context of emerging pathogens; however, the contribution of modeling to the growing issue of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate publications on population-level transmission models of AMR over a recent period (2006-2016) to gauge the state of research and identify gaps warranting further work.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search of relevant databases to identify transmission studies of AMR in viral, bacterial, and parasitic disease systems. We analyzed the temporal, geographic, and subject matter trends, described the predominant medical and behavioral interventions studied, and identified central findings relating to key pathogens.

RESULTS

We identified 273 modeling studies; the majority of which (> 70%) focused on 5 infectious diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), influenza virus, Plasmodium falciparum (malaria), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB), and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)). AMR studies of influenza and nosocomial pathogens were mainly set in industrialized nations, while HIV, TB, and malaria studies were heavily skewed towards developing countries. The majority of articles focused on AMR exclusively in humans (89%), either in community (58%) or healthcare (27%) settings. Model systems were largely compartmental (76%) and deterministic (66%). Only 43% of models were calibrated against epidemiological data, and few were validated against out-of-sample datasets (14%). The interventions considered were primarily the impact of different drug regimens, hygiene and infection control measures, screening, and diagnostics, while few studies addressed de novo resistance, vaccination strategies, economic, or behavioral changes to reduce antibiotic use in humans and animals.

CONCLUSIONS

The AMR modeling literature concentrates on disease systems where resistance has been long-established, while few studies pro-actively address recent rise in resistance in new pathogens or explore upstream strategies to reduce overall antibiotic consumption. Notable gaps include research on emerging resistance in Enterobacteriaceae and Neisseria gonorrhoeae; AMR transmission at the animal-human interface, particularly in agricultural and veterinary settings; transmission between hospitals and the community; the role of environmental factors in AMR transmission; and the potential of vaccines to combat AMR.

Cost-effectiveness of routine viral load monitoring in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Routine viral load monitoring for HIV-1 management of persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to identify treatment failure. However, viral load testing represents a substantial cost in resource constrained health care systems. The central challenge is whether and how viral load monitoring may be delivered such that it maximizes health gains across the population for the costs incurred. We hypothesized that key features of program design and delivery costs drive the cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring within programs.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of studies on the cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We followed the Cochrane Collaboration guidelines and the PRISMA reporting guidelines.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

We identified 18 studies that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring in HIV treatment programs. Overall, we identified three key factors that make it more likely for viral load monitoring to be cost-effective: 1) Use of effective, lower cost approaches to viral load monitoring (e.g. use of dried blood spots); 2) Ensuring the pathway to health improvement is established and that viral load results are acted upon; and 3) Viral load results are used to simplify HIV care in patients with viral suppression (i.e. differentiated care, with fewer clinic visits and longer prescriptions). Within the context of differentiated care, viral load monitoring has the potential to double the health gains and be cost saving compared to the current standard (CD4 monitoring).

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring critically depends on how it is delivered and the program context. Viral load monitoring as part of differentiated HIV care is likely to be cost-effective. Viral load monitoring in differentiated care programs provides evidence that reduced clinical engagement, where appropriate, is not impacting health outcomes. Introducing viral load monitoring without differentiated care is unlikely to be cost-effective in most settings and results in lost opportunity for health gains through alternative uses of limited resources. As countries scale up differentiated care programs, data on viral suppression outcomes and costs should be collected to evaluate the on-going cost-effectiveness of viral load monitoring as utilized in practice.

Accumulation of HIV-1 drug resistance in patients on a standard thymidine analogue-based first line antiretroviral therapy after virological failure: implications for the activity of next-line regimens from a longitudinal study in Mozambique

Background

We describe the accumulation of HIV-1 drug resistance and its effect on the activity of next-line components in patients with virological failure (HIV-1 RNA >1000 copies/mL) after 1 year (t1) of first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) not switching to second-line drugs for one additional year (t2) in low-middle income countries (LMIC).

Methods and results

We selected 48 patients from the DREAM cohort (Maputo, Mozambique); their median pre-ART CD4+ cell count was 165 cells/μl. At t1 patients were receiving ART since a median of 12.2 months (mainly zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine), their median HIV RNA was 3.8 log10 copies/mL, 43 (89.6%) presented at least one resistance-associated mutation (RAM), most frequently for lamivudine/emtricitabine, nevirapine and efavirenz. Resistance to tenofovir, was 10% at 1 year and higher than 20% at 2 years, while projection at 3 years was >30%. At t2, 42 (89.4%) had a predicted low-level or higher resistance to at least 1 s-line drug. At t1, the frequency of RAM in patients with a lower adherence to pharmacy appointments (<95%) was significantly lower (12/20, 60% for NRTI and 14/20, 70% for NNRTI) than in those with a better adherence (26/28, 92.8% for NRTI and 25/28, 89.3% for NNRTI) (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02–0.63, p = 0.012 and OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.06–1.29, p = 0.103, respectively). Overall thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs) accumulation rate was 0.32/year, 0.50/year in the subgroup with HIV RNA >10,000 copies/mL; NNRTI RAM accumulation rate was 0.15/year, 0.40/year in the subgroup with HIV RNA >10,000 copies/mL.

Conclusions

While the activity of NNRTIs is compromised early during failure, tenofovir and zidovudine activity are reduced more frequently after 1 year of documented virological failure of thymidine analogue-based first-line ART, with RAMs accumulating faster in patients with higher viral loads. The present observation may help informing decisions on when to switch to a second line ART in patients on virological failure in LMIC.