Climate Change and the Risk of Malaria Transmission in Iran

Ecological niche modeling analysis (Cx. pipiens), potential risk and projection of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Greece

Vector-borne diseases continue to increase worldwide. Dirofilariosis is one of the most common vector-borne zoonotic diseases, mainly caused by Dirofilaria spp. (D. immitis and D. repens) and spread by culicid mosquitoes of different species. Greece is one of the countries in southern Europe where it is traditionally endemic, and its distribution is not homogeneous. The aim of this study was to develop an environmental model for Greece that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for Dirofilaria spp. infection risk and its projection until 2080. For this purpose, we used the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated using an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of Dirofilaria spp. The ecological niche model of Cx. pipiens in Greece showed good predictive power (AUC=0.897) with the parasite at a resolution of 1 km2. The variables that contributed most to the model were mean annual temperature, rivers and human footprint. The highest risk of infection was found in coastal areas and in riverside areas of the main river basins, as well as in irrigated areas of the mainland and peninsular regions and in the whole territory of island areas, and the lowest risk was found in areas of higher altitude. A positive relationship was found between the risk of dirofilariosis and the location of infected dogs, with 86.65% located in very high and high risk areas. In 2080, the percentage of territory gained by Cx. pipiens will increase by 261.52%. This model provides a high predictive value, predicted presence, and risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection and can serve as a tool for the management and control of this disease.

Analysis of the current risk of Leishmania infantum transmission for domestic dogs in Spain and Portugal and its future projection in climate change scenarios

Canine leishmaniosis, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania infantum, is a cosmopolitan vector-borne zoonosis, transmitted principally by Phlebotomus perniciosus in Spain and Portugal, where it is considered an endemic disease. Ecoinformatics tools such as ecological niche models (ENM) have been successfully tested to model the distribution of the risk of infection of different parasitosis as they take into account environmental variables vital for their survival. The risk map proposed in this study combines the potential distribution of Ph. perniciosus in the Iberian Peninsula and the calculation of the infection rate of the parasite in the vector to model the risk of contracting the disease in a more realistic way. In fact, this weighting strategy improves the predictive power of the resulting model (R2 = 0.42, p = < 0.01) compared to the Ph. perniciosus ENM model alone (R2 = 0.13, p > 0.05). The places with the highest risk of transmission are the southwest and central peninsular area, as well as the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands and the Ebro basin, places where the ideal habitat of Ph. perniciosus and the infection rate is also high. In the case of future projections under climate change scenarios, an increase in the risk of infection by L. infantum can be observed in most of the territory (4.5% in 2040, 71.6% in 2060 and 63% in 2080), mainly in the northern part of the peninsula. The use of ENMs and their weighting with the infection rate in Ph. perniciosus is a useful tool in predicting the risk of infection for L. infantum in dogs for a given area. In this way, a more complete model can be obtained to facilitate prevention and control.

Prediction and validation of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Serbia and its projection to 2080

Animal and human dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, being one of the most important diseases in Europe. In Serbia, there are extensive studies reporting the presence of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens, mainly in the north of the country, where the human population is concentrated and where there is a presence of culicid mosquitoes that transmit the disease. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) has proven to be a very good tool to predict the appearance of parasitosis in very diverse areas, with distant orography and climatologies at a local, continental, and global level. Taking these factors into account, the objective of this study was to develop an environmental model for Serbia that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for the risk of infection with Dirofilaria spp. with which the predictive power of existing studies is improved. A wide set of variables related to the transmission of the parasite were used. The potential number of generations of D. immitis and the ecological niche modeling method (ENM) were used to estimate the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens. The highest probability of infection risk was located in the north of the country, and the lowest in the southern regions, where there is more orographic relief and less human activity. The model was corroborated with the location of D. immitis-infected dogs, with 89.28% of the country having a high probability of infection. In addition, it was observed that the percentage of territory with optimal habitat for Culex spp. will increase significantly between now and 2080. This new model can be used as a tool in the control and prevention of heartworm disease in Serbia, due to its high predictive power, and will serve to alert veterinary and health personnel of the presence of the disease in the animal and human population, respectively.

Predicting the environmental suitability for Anopheles stephensi under the current conditions in Ghana

Vector-borne diseases emergence, particularly malaria, present a significant public health challenge worldwide. Anophelines are predominant malaria vectors, with varied distribution, and influenced by environment and climate. This study, in Ghana, modelled environmental suitability for Anopheles stephensi, a potential vector that may threaten advances in malaria and vector control. Understanding this vector's distribution and dynamics ensures effective malaria and vector control programmes implementation. We explored the MaxEnt ecological modelling method to forecast An. stephensi's potential hotspots and niches. We analysed environmental and climatic variables to predict spatial distribution and ecological niches of An. stephensi with a spatial resolution of approximately 5 km2. Analysing geospatial and species occurrence data, we identified optimal environmental conditions and important factors for its presence. The model's most important variables guided hotspot prediction across several ecological zones aside from urban and peri-urban regions. Considering the vector's complex bionomics, these areas provide varying and adaptable conditions for the vector to colonise and establish. This is shown by the AUC = 0.943 prediction accuracy of the model, which is considered excellent. Based on our predictions, this vector species would thrive in the Greater Accra, Ashanti Central, Upper East, Northern, and North East regions. Forecasting its environmental suitability by ecological niche modelling supports proactive surveillance and focused malaria management strategies. Public health officials can act to reduce the risk of malaria transmission by identifying areas where mosquitoes may breed, which will ultimately improve health outcomes and disease control.

Assessment Heartworm Disease in the Canary Islands (Spain): Risk of Transmission in a Hyperendemic Area by Ecological Niche Modeling and Its Future Projection

Heartworm disease is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by Dirofilaria immitis. The Canary Islands (Spain), geolocated close to the coast of Western Sahara, is an archipelago considered hyperendemic where the average prevalence in domestic dogs is high, heterogeneous, and non-uniform. In addition, Culex theileri has been reported as a vector of the disease on two of the most populated islands. Our aim was to develop a more accurate transmission risk model for dirofilariosis for the Canary Islands. For this purpose, we used different variables related to parasite transmission; the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex spp. was calculated using the ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of D. immitis. The resulting model was validated with the geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all islands. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. There is a risk of transmission on all islands, being high in coastal areas, moderate in midland areas, and minimal in higher altitude areas. Most of the dogs infected with D. immitis were geolocated in areas with a high risk of transmission. In 2080, the percentage of territory that will have been gained by Culex spp. is small (5.02%), although it will occur toward the midlands from coastal areas. This new model provides a high predictive power for the study of cardiopulmonary dirofilariosis in the Canary Islands, as a hyperendemic area of the disease, and can be used as a tool for its prevention and control.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

Predicting current and future high-risk areas for vectors and reservoirs of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Climate change will affect the distribution of species in the future. To determine the vulnerable areas relating to CL in Iran, we applied two models, MaxEnt and RF, for the projection of the future distribution of the main vectors and reservoirs of CL. The results of the models were compared in terms of performance, species distribution maps, and the gain, loss, and stable areas. The models provided a reasonable estimate of species distribution. The results showed that the Northern and Southern counties of Iran, which currently do not have a high incidence of CL may witness new foci in the future. The Western, and Southwestern regions of the Country, which currently have high habitat suitability for the presence of some vectors and reservoirs, will probably significantly decrease in the future. Furthermore, the most stable areas are for T. indica and M. hurrianae in the future. So that, this species may remain a major reservoir in areas that are present under current conditions. With more local studies in the field of identifying vulnerable areas to CL, it can be suggested that the national CL control guidelines should be revised to include a section as a climate change adaptation plan.

Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios

Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of Dirofilaria spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km². The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (β ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 p < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for Cx. pipiens will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis.

Phylogenomics revealed migration routes and adaptive radiation timing of Holarctic malaria mosquito species of the Maculipennis Group

BACKGROUND

Phylogenetic analyses of closely related species of mosquitoes are important for better understanding the evolution of traits contributing to transmission of vector-borne diseases. Six out of 41 dominant malaria vectors of the genus Anopheles in the world belong to the Maculipennis Group, which is subdivided into two Nearctic subgroups (Freeborni and Quadrimaculatus) and one Palearctic (Maculipennis) subgroup. Although previous studies considered the Nearctic subgroups as ancestral, details about their relationship with the Palearctic subgroup, and their migration times and routes from North America to Eurasia remain controversial. The Palearctic species An. beklemishevi is currently included in the Nearctic Quadrimaculatus subgroup adding to the uncertainties in mosquito systematics.

RESULTS

To reconstruct historic relationships in the Maculipennis Group, we conducted a phylogenomic analysis of 11 Palearctic and 2 Nearctic species based on sequences of 1271 orthologous genes. The analysis indicated that the Palearctic species An. beklemishevi clusters together with other Eurasian species and represents a basal lineage among them. Also, An. beklemishevi is related more closely to An. freeborni, which inhabits the Western United States, rather than to An. quadrimaculatus, a species from the Eastern United States. The time-calibrated tree suggests a migration of mosquitoes in the Maculipennis Group from North America to Eurasia about 20-25 million years ago through the Bering Land Bridge. A Hybridcheck analysis demonstrated highly significant signatures of introgression events between allopatric species An. labranchiae and An. beklemishevi. The analysis also identified ancestral introgression events between An. sacharovi and its Nearctic relative An. freeborni despite their current geographic isolation. The reconstructed phylogeny suggests that vector competence and the ability to enter complete diapause during winter evolved independently in different lineages of the Maculipennis Group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our phylogenomic analyses reveal migration routes and adaptive radiation timing of Holarctic malaria vectors and strongly support the inclusion of An. beklemishevi into the Maculipennis Subgroup. Detailed knowledge of the evolutionary history of the Maculipennis Subgroup provides a framework for examining the genomic changes related to ecological adaptation and susceptibility to human pathogens. These genomic variations may inform researchers about similar changes in the future providing insights into the patterns of disease transmission in Eurasia.

Nanoliposomes containing limonene and limonene-rich essential oils as novel larvicides against malaria and filariasis mosquito vectors

Background

Mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and encephalitis are still the cause of several hundred thousand deaths annually. The excessive use of chemical insecticides for transmission control has led to environmental pollution and widespread resistance in mosquitoes. Botanical insecticides' efficacies improvement has thus received considerable attention recently.

Methods

The larvicidal effects of three essential oils from the Citrus family and limonene (their major ingredient) were first investigated against malaria and filariasis mosquito vectors. An attempt was then made to improve their efficacies by preparing nanoliposomes containing each of them.

Results

The larvicidal effect of nanoformulated forms was more effective than non-formulated states. Nanoliposomes containing Citrus aurantium essential oil with a particle size of 52 ± 4 nm showed the best larvicidal activity (LC₅₀ and LC₉₀ values) against Anopheles stephensi (6.63 and 12.29 µg/mL) and Culex quinquefasciatus (4.9 and 16.4 µg/mL).

Conclusion

Due to the green constituents and high efficacy of nanoliposomes containing C. aurantium essential oil, it could be considered for further investigation against other mosquitoes’ populations and field trials.

Current Situation of Malaria and Resistance of Main Vectors to WHO Recommended Insecticides in an Endemic Area, Southeastern Iran

Although malaria is endemic in some areas of southeastern Iran, following the successful national malaria elimination plan, the local transmission area has been shrunk. The main cases in Iran are due to Plasmodium vivax followed by P. falciparum. This study was aimed to determine the current situation of malaria in Kerman Province of Iran and evaluate the insecticide resistance of main vectors. The field study was conducted in 2019. Data of new malaria cases were obtained from the health centers for the period of 2009-2018. Susceptibility status of Anopheles stephensi and An. dthali was evaluated against dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane, Dieldrin, Malathion, Bendiocarb, Deltamethrin, and Temephos at the diagnostic dose. A total of 522 malaria cases were recorded and divided into indigenous (33.14%) and imported (66.86%) categories. The highest incidence of the disease was reported from the southern areas of the province, where all indigenous cases occurred. Adults of An. stephensi were resistant to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane while its resistance to be confirmed to dieldrin, bendiocarb and deltamethrin. As An. dthali had less than 98% mortality against bendiocarb, the resistance status should be confirmed with more tests. Our findings showed both species had less than 98% mortality against bendiocarb and deltamethrin insecticides which are used in malaria vector control program in Iran. Due to the susceptibility of these vectors to temephos, larviciding can be advised for vector control in this area.

Climate change impacts on infectious diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)-risks and recommendations

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region has rapid population growth, large differences in socio-economic levels between developed and developing countries, migration, increased water demand, and ecosystems degradation. The region is experiencing a significant warming trend with longer and warmer summers, increased frequency and severity of heat waves, and a drier climate. While climate change plays an important role in contributing to political instability in the region through displacement of people, food insecurity, and increased violence, it also increases the risks of vector-, water-, and food-borne diseases. Poorer and less educated people, young children and the elderly, migrants, and those with long-term health problems are at highest risk. A result of the inequalities among EMME countries is an inconsistency in the availability of reliable evidence about the impacts on infectious diseases. To help address this gap, a search of the literature was conducted as a basis for related recommended responses and suggested actions for preparedness and prevention. Since climate change already impacts the health of vulnerable populations in the EMME and will have a greater impact in future years, risk assessment and timely design and implementation of health preparedness and adaptation strategies are essential. Joint national and cross-border infectious diseases management systems for more effective preparedness and prevention are needed, supported by interventions that improve the environment. Without such cooperation and effective interventions, climate change will lead to an increasing morbidity and mortality in the EMME from infectious diseases, with a higher risk for the most vulnerable populations.

Global distribution of soapberries (Sapindus L.) habitats under current and future climate scenarios

Sapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, the diversity of Sapindus germplasms may face the risk of destruction. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the current and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0-20 °C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40-140 mm, a mean temperature of 2-25 °C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19-28 °C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6-7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 10⁴ km², which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

Evaluating the Influence of Climate Change on Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker Habitat Distribution on the Tibetan Plateau Using Maximum Entropy Model

The ecosystems across the Tibetan Plateau are changing rapidly in response to climate change, which poses unprecedented challenges for the control and mitigation of desertification on the Tibetan Plateau. Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker is a drought-resistant plant species that has great potential to be used for desertification and soil degradation control on the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche model, we characterized the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana on the Tibetan Plateau under both current and future climate scenarios. To construct a robust model, 242 population occurrence records, gathered from our field surveys, historical data records, and a literature review, were used to calibrate the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that, under current environmental conditions, the habitat of S. moorcroftiana was concentrated in regions along the Yarlung Tsangpo, Lancang, and Jinsha rivers on the Tibetan Plateau. Elevation, isothermality, and minimal air temperature of the coldest month played a dominant role in determining the habitat distribution of S. moorcroftiana. Under future climate scenarios, the increased air temperature was likely to benefit the expansion of S. moorcroftiana over the short term, but, in the long run, continued warming may restrict the growth of S. moorcroftiana and lead to a contraction in its habitat. Importantly, the Yarlung Tsangpo River valley was found to be the core habitat of S. moorcroftiana, and this habitat moved westwards along the Yarlung Tsangpo River under future climate scenarios, but did not detach from it. This finding suggests that, with the current pace of climate change, an increase in efforts to protect and cultivate S. moorcroftiana is necessary and critical to control desertification on the Tibetan Plateau.

Solid-lipid nanoparticles (SLN)s containing Zataria multiflora essential oil with no-cytotoxicity and potent repellent activity against Anopheles stephensi

Malaria is still a global health concern with more than 400,000 death annually. Personal protection using mosquitoes' repellent is an effective prevention strategy, especially in endemic areas. The toxic effects of synthetics repellents and their adverse effects on fabricated goods have made the development of green repellent critical. In this study, ingredients of Zataria multiflora essential oil (ZMEO) were identified using GC-MS analysis. Solid-lipid nanoparticles containing ZMEO (1%) were prepared (SLN-ZMEO) using the high-pressure homogenizer method. The repellent activity of ZMEO and SLN-ZMEO was investigated using Klun and Debboun method and compared together. Besides, their cytotoxicity on a human skin normal cell line (HFFF2) was evaluated. Five major components of ZMEO were carvacrol (27.05%), thymol (26.452%), γ-terpinene (15.144%), o-cymene (13.584%), and α-pinene (9.483%). The SLN-ZMEO showed a spherical shape with a particle size of 134 ± 7 nm. Moreover, their polydispersity index (PDI), zeta potential and entrapment efficiency were determined as 0.24 ± 0.1, - 9.82 ± 0.95 mV and 64.6 ± 3.8%, respectively. Interestingly, the protection time of nanoformulation (93 ± 5 min) was three times longer than that of the non-formulated essential oil (29 ± 2 min). Interestingly, both samples did not show cytotoxicity on HFFF2. Therefore, the prepared nanoformulation can be used as a green and potent repellent.