Thyroid mass in children and adolescents living in the most exposed areas to Chernobyl fallout in Belarus

Second Primary Cancer Among Patients With Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Following the Chernobyl Disaster

Importance

To our knowledge, there are no complete population-based studies of the risks of developing second malignant tumors after papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in patients following the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

Objective

To study the risk of second primary cancers in patients with PTC after the Chernobyl disaster.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a retrospective cohort study conducted in the Republic of Belarus over a 31-year time frame evaluating patients with primary PTC and second malignant tumors. Personal data from the Belarussian Cancer Registry were used in the investigation, and only second primary cancers were included in the analysis. Patients were observed from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2021, for the establishment of second primary malignant tumors.

Main Outcomes and Measures

For analysis, synchronous and metachronous tumors were grouped into 1 group (second primary cancer group). If the patient had more than 2 cancers, they were observed until development of a second tumor and, subsequently, the development of a third tumor. The starting point for calculating the number of person-years was the date of thyroid cancer diagnosis. The end point for calculating the number of person-years was the date of diagnosis of the second primary malignant tumor, the date of death, the date of the last visit of the patient, or December 31, 2021 (the end the of study period). The incidence of a second primary malignant tumor with PTC was calculated for the study groups using standardized incidence ratios.

Results

Of the 30 568 patients with a primary PTC included in this study, 2820 (9.2%) developed a second malignant tumor (2204 women and 616 men); the mean (SD) age of all patients at time of the primary cancer was 53.9 (12.6) years and at time of the secondary cancer was 61.5 (11.8) years. Overall, the standardized incidence ratio was statistically significant for all types of cancer (1.25; 95% CI, 1.21-1.30), including solid malignant tumors (1.20; 95% CI, 1.15-1.25) and all leukemias (1.61; 95% CI, 2.17-2.13). Cancers of the digestive system (466 cases [21.1%]), genital organs (376 cases [17.1%]), and breasts (603 cases [27.4%]) were the most prevalent second primary tumors in women following PTC. Second primary tumors of the gastrointestinal tract (146 cases [27.7%]), genitourinary system (139 cases [22.6%]), and urinary tract (139 cases [22.6%]) were the most prevalent in men. Urinary tract cancers (307 cases [10.9%]) and gastrointestinal tumors (612 cases [21.4%]) were the most prevalent second primary tumors overall.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study reports the increased incidence of solid secondary tumors in men and women over a 31-year time frame after the Chernobyl disaster. Moreover, there was a statistically significant increased risk of second tumors of the breast, colon, rectum, mesothelium, eye, adnexa, meninges, and adrenal glands as well as Kaposi sarcoma. These data might have an effect on the follow-up of this cohort of patients to detect secondary malignant tumors at an early stage.

Evaluation of 131I transfer in the environment based on the available measurements made in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

This study evaluates the 131I transfer from ground deposition to the human thyroid gland after the Chernobyl accident using measurements of 131I concentrations in 1,252 soil, 124 grass, and 136 cow's milk samples as well as 131I thyroid activity measured in 3,100 individuals included in the Belarusian-American cohort. The following parameters of an 131I environmental transfer model used to calculate thyroid doses were evaluated in this study: (i) the interception factor of 131I by pasture grass, which was described by a purely empirical equation, (ii) the removal rate of 131I from pasture grass due to weathering and growth dilution, estimated to be 0.0676 d-1 (half-life of 10.3 d), (iii) the removal rate of 131I from cow's milk, estimated to be 0.0686 d-1 (half-life of 10.1 d), and (iv) the transfer coefficient of 131I from feed to cow's milk, arithmetic mean ± standard deviation of (6.7 ± 8.7) × 10-3 d L-1 (median = 4.0 × 10-3 d L-1). The individual model-based and measurement-based 131I thyroid activities for the Belarusian-American cohort members were calculated using different starting points of 131I transfer in the chain 'ground deposition' → 'vegetation' → 'cow's milk' → 'human thyroid', i.e., the measured 131I concentrations in soil, grass, and cow's milk. De novo thyroid doses from 131I for the 3,100 cohort members were calculated in this study using measured 131I activity concentrations in soil, grass, and cow's milk and were compared with those estimated previously for the same individuals using model-based 131I activity concentrations. It was shown that the use of measured instead of model-based 131I concentrations, in general, did not improve the measurement-based thyroid dose estimates. This is likely to be because there was already a good generic data base for the parameters used in this assessment. This finding indicates that, although the measurements of environmental samples are essential to estimate the parameter values of the 131I transfer model, the individual measurements of 131I thyroid activity are the most valuable information for estimating individual thyroid doses.

Estimation of the Thyroid Equivalent Doses to Residents in Areas Affected by the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Disaster Due to Inhalation of 131I Based on Their Behavioral Data and the Latest Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Model Simulation

ABSTRACT

It has been challenging to obtain reliable estimates of thyroid equivalent doses (TEDs) to residents involved in the 11 March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident because of the shortage of direct human measurements associated with 131I, the largest contributor to the dose of concern. The present study attempted to perform the estimation of the TEDs by inhalation of 131I to residents from Namie-town, one of the most radiologically-affected municipalities, by means of the latest atmospheric transport and dispersion model (ATDM) simulations with the Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI) ver. 2, coupled with personal behavioral data containing the history of the whereabouts of individuals shortly after the accident. We analyzed 1,637 residents who underwent direct measurements with whole-body counters several months after the accident and provided their personal behavioral data. We divided the subjects into two groups based on whether the distances between their locations and the FDNPP were >20 km as of 15:00 on 12 March in relation to the timepoint of the hydrogen explosion at the Unit 1 Reactor building. As a result, the 90th percentile TEDs of the 1,249 prompt evacuees and 388 late evacuees were 3.9 mSv (adult)-6.8 mSv (10-y-old) and 24.1 mSv (adult)-35.6 mSv (5-y-old), respectively, excluding 16 persons whose TEDs exceeded 50 mSv. The 90th percentile (median) TEDs to 1-y-old children (not included in the subjects) for the prompt and late evacuation groups were 8.1 (1.0) mSv and 36.3 (19.7) mSv, respectively. Additionally, this study provided the evidence to support the view that the explosive event at the Unit 1 Reactor building on the afternoon of 12 March 2011 could have caused the critical group among Namie-town's residents, whereas the largest release event on 15 March gave relatively small doses to the residents because their exposure took place mostly at sites that were distant from the FDNPP. However, the present dose estimation has potentially large uncertainty at the individual level; further validations are thus necessary.

Association between exposure to radioactive iodine after the Chernobyl accident and thyroid volume in Belarus 10-15 years later

BACKGROUND

While there is a robust literature on environmental exposure to iodine-131 (131I) in childhood and adolescence and the risk of thyroid cancer and benign nodules, little is known about its effects on thyroid volume.

METHODS

To assess the effect of 131I dose to the thyroid on the volume of the thyroid gland, we examined the data from the baseline screening of the Belarusian-American Cohort Study of residents of Belarus who were exposed to the Chernobyl fallout at ages ≤18 years. Thyroid dose estimates were based on individual thyroid activity measurements made shortly after the accident and dosimetric data from questionnaires obtained 10-15 years later at baseline screening. During baseline screening, thyroid gland volume was assessed from thyroid ultrasound measurements. The association between radiation dose and thyroid volume was modeled using linear regression where radiation dose was expressed with power terms to address non-linearity. The model was adjusted for attained age, sex, and place of residence, and their modifying effects were examined.

RESULTS

The analysis was based on 10,703 subjects. We found a statistically significant positive association between radiation dose and thyroid volume (P < 0.001). Heterogeneity of association was observed by attained age (P < 0.001) with statistically significant association remaining only in the subgroup of ≥18 years at screening (P < 0.001). For this group, increase in dose from 0.0005 to 0.15 Gy was associated with a 1.27 ml (95% CI: 0.46, 2.07) increase in thyroid volume. The estimated effect did not change with increasing doses above 0.15 Gy.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to examine the association between 131I dose to the thyroid gland and thyroid volume in a population of individuals exposed during childhood and systematically screened 10-15 years later. It provides evidence for a moderate statistically significant increase in thyroid volume among those who were ≥ 18 years at screening. Given that this effect was observed at very low doses and was restricted to a narrow dose range, further studies are necessary to better understand the effect.

Thyroid dose estimates for the genome-wide association study of thyroid cancer in persons exposed in Belarus to 131I after the Chernobyl accident

The Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986 led to a sharp increase in thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in the individuals exposed to radiation in childhood. The major risk factor for TC was exposure to Iodine-131 (131I). Here, we estimated the thyroid doses due to 131I intake for 2041 participants of the genome-wide association study of TC in Belarusian people exposed to radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The following parameter-values specially developed in this study were used to estimate individual thyroid doses: (i) scaling factors for adjustment of the model-based doses, (ii) age and gender diet to characterize 131I intake, and (iii) area-, age- and gender-specific S-values for the thyroid gland per 131I decay in the thyroid. The most reliable doses were calculated for 103 people with measured 131I thyroid activity (the arithmetic mean of 1.2 Gy, median 0.52 Gy), and 275 individuals with detailed residential history and dietary data (the arithmetic mean of 0.41 Gy, median 0.24 Gy). The arithmetic mean of thyroid doses among all study participants was 0.23 Gy (median 0.082 Gy); the highest individual dose was 9.0 Gy. Special attention was paid to the reliability and validity of the obtained estimates, in particular for the individuals without 131I thyroid activity measurements and individual data on residential history and diet, by comparing those with the doses from other post-Chernobyl epidemiological studies. Overall, the doses estimated in the current study were in reasonable agreement with previously reported thyroid doses. These doses will be used in the genome-wide association study of TC in people exposed in Belarus to 131I after the Chernobyl accident.

Uncertainties in Radiation Doses for a Case-control Study of Thyroid Cancer among Persons Exposed in Childhood to 131 I from Chernobyl Fallout

Uncertainties in thyroid doses due to I intake were evaluated for 2,239 subjects in a case-control study of thyroid cancer following exposure to Chernobyl fallout during childhood and adolescence carried out in contaminated regions of Belarus and Russia. Using new methodological developments that became available recently, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure was applied to calculate 1,000 alternative vectors of thyroid doses due to I intake for the study population of 2,239 subjects accounting for sources of shared and unshared errors. An overall arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses in the study was estimated to be 0.43 Gy and median dose of 0.16 Gy. The arithmetic mean and median of deterministic doses estimated previously for 1,615 of 2,239 study subjects were 0.48 Gy and 0.20 Gy, respectively. The geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic doses varied from 1.59 to 3.61 with an arithmetic mean of 1.94 and a geometric mean of 1.89 over all subjects of the study. These multiple sets of thyroid doses were used to update radiation-related thyroid cancer risks in the study population exposed to I after the Chernobyl accident.

Thyroid Dose Estimates for a Cohort of Belarusian Persons Exposed in Utero and During Early Life to Chernobyl Fallout

Thyroid radiation doses were estimated for a cohort of 2,965 Belarusian persons who were exposed in utero and during early life to fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Prenatal and postnatal doses to the thyroid due to intake of I, external irradiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground, and ingestion of cesium isotopes (Cs and Cs) were calculated for all cohort members. Dose estimation was based on personal interviews with subjects' mothers; the interviews collected data on subjects' residential history, consumption by mothers during time of pregnancy and breast-feeding, as well as consumption by subjects after birth. Direct instrumental measurements of radioactivity in mothers and the study subjects, if available, were also used for calculation of doses. Intake of I by mothers was found to be the predominant pathway for thyroid exposure for the study subjects. The average thyroid dose due to all exposure pathways was estimated to be 137 mGy (median dose of 25 mGy, maximal dose of 14.8 Gy), including 130 mGy (median dose of 17 mGy, maximal dose of 14.8 Gy) from I intake, 4.9 mGy (median dose of 3.0 mGy, maximal dose of 102 mGy) due to external irradiation, and 2.5 mGy (median dose of 1.7 mGy, maximal dose of 47 mGy) due to ingestion of Cs. The dose estimates will be used to evaluate the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in this unique cohort.

Radiation Exposure to the Thyroid After the Chernobyl Accident

INTRODUCTION

The Chernobyl accident resulted in a considerable release of radioactivity to the atmosphere, particularly of Iodine-131 (¹³¹I), with the greatest contamination occurring in Belarus, Ukraine, and western part of Russia.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Increase in thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases incidence in population exposed to Chernobyl fallout in these counties was the major health effect of the accident. Therefore, a lot of attention was paid to the thyroid doses, mainly, the ¹³¹I intake during two months after the accident. This paper reviews thyroid doses, both the individual for the subjects of radiation epidemiological studies and population-average doses. Exposure to ¹³¹I intake and other exposure pathways to population of affected regions and the Chernobyl cleanup workers (liquidators) are considered.

RESULTS

Individual thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake varied up to 42 Gy and depended on the age of the person, the region where a person was exposed, and their cow's milk consumption habits. Population-average thyroid doses among children of youngest age reached up to 0.75 Gy in the most contaminated area, the Gomel Oblast, in Belarus. Intake of ¹³¹I was the main pathway of exposure to the thyroid gland; its mean contribution to the thyroid dose in affected regions was more than 90%. The mean thyroid dose from inhalation of ¹³¹I for early Chernobyl cleanup workers was estimated to be 0.18 Gy. Individual thyroid doses due to different exposure pathways varied among 1,137 cleanup workers included in the epidemiological studies up to 9 Gy. Uncertainties associated with dose estimates, in terms of mean geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic doses, varied in range from 1.6 for doses based on individual-radiation measurements to 2.6 for "modelled" doses.

CONCLUSION

The ¹³¹I was the most radiologically important radionuclide that resulted in radiation exposure to the thyroid gland and cause an increase in the of rate of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in population exposed after the Chernobyl accident.

Thyroid Cancer after Exposure to Radioiodine in Childhood and Adolescence: 131I-Related Risk and the Role of Selected Host and Environmental Factors

In this study, we expanded on a previously published population-based case-control study on subjects exposed to iodine-131 (131I) from Chernobyl fallout at age ≤18 years using improved individual 131I absorbed thyroid doses. We further studied the impact of iodine deficiency and other selected host risk factors on 131I-related thyroid cancer risk after childhood exposure. We included 298 thyroid cancer cases and 1934 matched controls from the most contaminated regions of Belarus and the Russian Federation. We performed statistical analysis using conditional logistic regression models. We found a statistically significant linear quadratic dose-effect association between thyroid cancer and 131I thyroid dose in the range up to 5 grays (Gy). Self-reported personal history of benign nodules, any thyroid disease except thyroid cancer, family history of thyroid cancer, increased body mass index, and deficient stable iodine status at the time of the accident were statistically significant risk factors (p < 0.05 for each factor) for thyroid cancer after adjustment for thyroid 131I dose effect. Subjects who received stable iodine supplementation in the years after the accident had a significantly lower 131I-related risk of thyroid cancer. Our findings are important for thyroid cancer prevention, and for further improvement of medical surveillance in the affected populations.

Numerical Simulation Based on Individual Voxel Phantoms for a Sophisticated Evaluation of Internal Doses Mainly From 131I in Highly Exposed Workers Involved in the TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi NPP Accident

As a response to the Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011, seven TEPCO workers whose exposure doses were expected to be >250 mSv (a tentative dose limit stipulated by the Japanese central authority) attended Japan's National Institute for Radiological Sciences for additional internal dose measurements. The National Institute for Radiological Sciences examination revealed that these workers' internal doses came mainly from their intake of the radionuclide I during emergency operations. In this study, we performed numerical simulations based on individual volume-pixel (voxel) phantoms of six of the seven workers for a more sophisticated evaluation of their internal doses, taking into account the individual thyroid size and other specific parameters. The voxel phantoms were created from magnetic resonance imaging scan images. As a result, the individual thyroid volumes ranged from 6.5 to 28.2 cm and were considerably smaller than the reference value (~20 cm) adopted in the International Commission on Radiation Protection's dosimetric model for four of the six subjects. Compared to the original estimates of the thyroid absorbed dose, our preliminary evaluation revealed values that were increased by approximately 3-fold or decreased by 30% at maximum. A wide difference in the individual thyroid size would be one of the significant modifiers in the current dose estimation of subjects of the ongoing epidemiological study project. The present simulations also provided evidence that the direct thyroid measurements by the National Institute for Radiological Sciences to determine the workers' I thyroid contents were sufficiently accurate.

Influence of the external and internal radioactive contamination of the body and the clothes on the results of the thyroidal 131I measurements conducted in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident. Part 1: Estimation of the external and internal radioactive contamination

The estimation of the thyroid doses received in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident is based on the analysis of exposure-rate measurements performed with radiation detectors placed against the necks of about 130,000 residents. The purpose of these measurements was to estimate the 131I activity contents of the thyroids of the subjects. However, because the radiation detectors were not equipped with collimators and because the subjects usually wore contaminated clothes, among other factors, the radiation signal included, in addition to the gamma rays emitted during the decay of the 131I activity present in the thyroid, contributions from external contamination of the skin and clothes and internal contamination of organs other than the thyroid by various radionuclides. The assessment of the contributions of the external and internal contamination of the body to the radiation signal is divided into two parts: (1) the estimation of the radionuclide activities deposited on, and incorporated in, various parts of the body, and (2) the responses of the radiation detectors to the gamma rays emitted by the radionuclides deposited on, and incorporated in, various parts of the body. The first part, which is presented in this paper, includes a variety of exposure scenarios, models, and calculations for 17 of the most abundant gamma-emitting radionuclides contributing to the thyroid detector signal, while the second part is presented in a companion paper. The results presented in the two papers were combined to calculate the contributions of the external and internal contamination of the body to the radiation signal, and, in turn, the 131I activities in the thyroids of all subjects of an epidemiologic study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases among 11,732 Belarusian-American cohort members who were exposed in childhood and adolescence.

Risk of Thyroid Nodules in Residents of Belarus Exposed to Chernobyl Fallout as Children and Adolescents

CONTEXT

Although radiation exposure is an important predictor of thyroid cancer on diagnosis of a thyroid nodule, the relationship between childhood radiation exposure and thyroid nodules has not been comprehensively evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between internal I-131 thyroid dose and thyroid nodules in young adults exposed during childhood.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study, we screened residents of Belarus aged ≤18 years at the time of the Chernobyl nuclear accident for thyroid disease (median age, 21 years) with thyroid palpation, ultrasonography, blood/urine analysis, and medical follow-up when appropriate. Eligible participants (N = 11,421) had intact thyroid glands and doses based on direct individual thyroid activity measurements.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Excess odds ratios per Gray (EOR/Gy, scaled at age 5 years at exposure) for any thyroid nodule and for nodules grouped by cytology/histology, diameter size, and singularity.

RESULTS

Risk of any thyroid nodule increased significantly with I-131 dose and, for a given dose, with younger age at exposure. The EOR/Gy (95% confidence intervals) for neoplastic nodules (3.82; 0.87 to 15.52) was significantly higher than for nonneoplastic nodules (0.32; <0.03 to 0.70) and did not vary by size; whereas the EOR/Gy for nonneoplastic nodules did vary by size (P = 0.02) and was 1.55 (0.36 to 5.46) for nodules ≥10 mm and 0.02 (<-0.02 to 0.70) for nodules <10 mm. EORs/Gy for single and multiple nodules were comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood exposure to internal I-131 is associated with increased risk of neoplastic thyroid nodules of any size and nonneoplastic nodules ≥10 mm.

Chronic exposure of adult, postnatal and in utero rat models to low-dose 137Cesium: impact on circulating biomarkers

The presence of 137Cesium (137Cs) in the environment after nuclear accidents at Chernobyl and more recently Fukushima Daiichi raises many health issues for the surrounding populations chronically exposed through the food chain. To mimic different exposure situations, we set up a male rat model of exposure by chronic ingestion of a 137Cs concentration likely to be ingested daily by residents of contaminated areas (6500 Bq.l-1) and tested contaminations lasting 9 months for adult, neonatal and fetal rats. We tested plasma and serum biochemistry to identify disturbances in general indicators (lipids, proteins, carbohydrates and electrolytes) and in biomarkers of thyroid, heart, brain, bone, kidney, liver and testis functions. Analysis of the general indicators showed increased levels of cholesterol (+26%), HDL cholesterol (+31%), phospholipids B (+15%) and phosphorus (+100%) in the postnatal group only. Thyroid, heart, brain, bone and kidney functions showed no blood changes in any model. The liver function evaluation showed changes in total bilirubin (+67%) and alkaline phosphatase (-11%) levels, but only for the rats exposed to 137Cs intake in adulthood. Large changes in 17β-estradiol (-69%) and corticosterone (+36%) levels affected steroidogenesis, but only in the adult model. This study showed that response profiles differed according to age at exposure: lipid metabolism was most radiosensitive in the postnatal model, and steroid hormone metabolism was most radiosensitive in rats exposed in adulthood. There was no evidence of deleterious effects suggesting a potential impact on fertility or procreation.

Doses for post-Chernobyl epidemiological studies: are they reliable?

On 26 April 2016, thirty years will have elapsed since the occurrence of the Chernobyl accident, which has so far been the most severe in the history of the nuclear reactor industry. Numerous epidemiological studies were conducted to evaluate the possible health consequences of the accident. Since the credibility of the association between the radiation exposure and health outcome is highly dependent on the adequacy of the dosimetric quantities used in these studies, this paper makes an effort to overview the methods used to estimate individual doses and the associated uncertainties in the main analytical epidemiological studies (i.e. cohort or case-control) related to the Chernobyl accident. Based on the thorough analysis and comparison with other radiation studies, the authors conclude that individual doses for the Chernobyl analytical epidemiological studies have been calculated with a relatively high degree of reliability and well-characterized uncertainties, and that they compare favorably with many other non-Chernobyl studies. The major strengths of the Chernobyl studies are: (1) they are grounded on a large number of measurements, either performed on humans or made in the environment; and (2) extensive effort has been invested to evaluate the uncertainties associated with the dose estimates. Nevertheless, gaps in the methodology are identified and suggestions for the possible improvement of the current dose estimates are made.

Risk of thyroid follicular adenoma among children and adolescents in Belarus exposed to iodine-131 after the Chornobyl accident

Several studies reported an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines, chiefly iodine-131 ((131)I), after the 1986 Chornobyl (Ukrainian spelling) nuclear power plant accident. The risk of benign thyroid tumors following such radiation exposure is much less well known. We have previously reported a novel finding of significantly increased risk of thyroid follicular adenoma in a screening study of children and adolescents exposed to the Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine. To verify this finding, we analyzed baseline screening data from a cohort of 11,613 individuals aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident in Belarus (mean age at screening = 21 years). All participants had individual (131)I doses estimated from thyroid radioactivity measurements and were screened according to a standardized protocol. We found a significant linear dose response for 38 pathologically confirmed follicular adenoma cases. The excess odds ratio per gray of 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 13.1) was similar in males and females but decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure (P < 0.01), with the highest radiation risks estimated for those exposed at <2 years of age. Follicular adenoma radiation risks were not significantly modified by most indicators of past and current iodine deficiency. The present study confirms the (131)I-associated increases in risk of follicular adenoma in the Ukrainian population and adds new evidence on the risk increasing with decreasing age at exposure.

Thyroid Dose Estimates for a Cohort of Belarusian Children Exposed to (131)I from the Chernobyl Accident: Assessment of Uncertainties

Deterministic thyroid radiation doses due to iodine-131 ((131)I) intake were reconstructed in a previous article for 11,732 participants of the Belarusian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in individuals exposed during childhood or adolescence to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The current article describes an assessment of uncertainties in reconstructed thyroid doses that accounts for the shared and unshared errors. Using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 sets of cohort thyroid doses due to (131)I intake were calculated. The arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses for the entire cohort was 0.68 Gy. For two-thirds of the cohort the arithmetic mean of individual stochastic thyroid doses was less than 0.5 Gy. The geometric standard deviation of stochastic doses varied among cohort members from 1.33 to 5.12 with an arithmetic mean of 1.76 and a geometric mean of 1.73. The uncertainties in thyroid dose were driven by the unshared errors associated with the estimates of values of thyroid mass and of the (131)I activity in the thyroid of the subject; the contribution of shared errors to the overall uncertainty was small. These multiple sets of cohort thyroid doses will be used to evaluate the radiation risks of thyroid cancer and noncancer thyroid diseases, taking into account the structure of the errors in the dose estimates.

Systematic determination of thyroid volume by ultrasound examination from infancy to adolescence in Japan: the Fukushima Health Management Survey

Although several reports have defined normal thyroid volume depending on either age or body surface, there are no sequential reference values on childhood thyroid volume evaluated by using ultrasonography and epidemiological analysis in Japan. The aim of the present study was to establish updated reference values for thyroid volume by ultrasound examination and epidemiological analysis in 0-19 year-old Japanese children. It is based on a cross-sectional study conducted from October 9, 2011 to March 31, 2012. The subjects were 38,063 children who were examined by ultrasonography as the initial preliminary survey of the Fukushima Health Management Survey in October 9, 2011 to March 31, 2012. The width, thickness, and height of each lobe were measured and the volume of each lobe was calculated by the mean of the elliptical shape volume formula. The values of thyroid volume at the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of age and body surface area for each gender group were obtained from 0-19 year-old children. Positive correlation was observed between thyroid volume and either age or body surface. The right lobe was significantly larger than the left lobe. The thyroid volume in females was larger than that in males after adjusting body surface area. The reference values of childhood thyroid for each age or body surface area were obtained by this extensive survey using ultrasound. These reference values may be used to define the normal size of thyroid gland by echosonography in Japanese children, although thyroid volume may be affected by dimorphic factors such as sex hormones.

Thyroid dose estimates for a cohort of Belarusian children exposed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident

The U.S. National Cancer Institute, in collaboration with the Belarusian Ministry of Health, is conducting a study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in a cohort of about 12,000 persons who were exposed to fallout from the Chernobyl accident in April 1986. The study subjects were 18 years old or younger at the time of exposure and resided in Belarus in the most contaminated areas of the Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts, as well as in the city of Minsk. All cohort members had at least one direct thyroid measurement made in April-June 1986. Individual data on residential history, consumption of milk, milk products and leafy vegetables as well as administration of stable iodine were collected for all cohort members by means of personal interviews conducted between 1996 and 2007. Based on the estimated (131)I activities in the thyroids, which were derived from the direct thyroid measurements, and on the responses to the questionnaires, individual thyroid doses from intakes of (131)I were reconstructed for all cohort members. In addition, radiation doses to the thyroid were estimated for the following minor exposure pathways: (a) intake of short-lived (132)I, (133)I and (132)Te by inhalation and ingestion; (b) external irradiation from radionuclides deposited on the ground; and (c) ingestion intake of (134)Cs and (137)Cs. Intake of (131)I was the major pathway for thyroid exposure; its mean contribution to the thyroid dose was 92%. The thyroid doses from (131)I intakes varied from 0.5 mGy to almost 33 Gy; the mean was estimated to be 0.58 Gy, while the median was 0.23 Gy. The reconstructed doses are being used to evaluate the risk of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in the cohort.

Mathematical modeling of a survey-meter used to measure radioactivity in human thyroids: Monte Carlo calculations of the device response and uncertainties

This paper presents results of Monte Carlo modeling of the SRP-68-01 survey meter used to measure exposure rates near the thyroid glands of persons exposed to radioactivity following the Chernobyl accident. This device was not designed to measure radioactivity in humans. To estimate the uncertainty associated with the measurement results, a mathematical model of the SRP-68-01 survey meter was developed and verified. A Monte Carlo method of numerical simulation of radiation transport has been used to calculate the calibration factor for the device and evaluate its uncertainty. The SRP-68-01 survey meter scale coefficient, an important characteristic of the device, was also estimated in this study. The calibration factors of the survey meter were calculated for (131)I, (132)I, (133)I, and (135)I content in the thyroid gland for six age groups of population: newborns; children aged 1 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 15 yr; and adults. A realistic scenario of direct thyroid measurements with an "extended" neck was used to calculate the calibration factors for newborns and one-year-olds. Uncertainties in the device calibration factors due to variability of the device scale coefficient, variability in thyroid mass and statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo method were evaluated. Relative uncertainties in the calibration factor estimates were found to be from 0.06 for children aged 1 yr to 0.1 for 10-yr and 15-yr children. The positioning errors of the detector during measurements deviate mainly in one direction from the estimated calibration factors. Deviations of the device position from the proper geometry of measurements were found to lead to overestimation of the calibration factor by up to 24 percent for adults and up to 60 percent for 1-yr children. The results of this study improve the estimates of (131)I thyroidal content and, consequently, thyroid dose estimates that are derived from direct thyroid measurements performed in Belarus shortly after the Chernobyl accident.

Thyroid cancer risk in Belarus among children and adolescents exposed to radioiodine after the Chornobyl accident

BACKGROUND

Previous studies showed an increased risk of thyroid cancer among children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines released after the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident, but the effects of screening, iodine deficiency, age at exposure and other factors on the dose-response are poorly understood.

METHODS

We screened 11 970 individuals in Belarus aged 18 years or younger at the time of the accident who had estimated (131)I thyroid doses based on individual thyroid activity measurements and dosimetric data from questionnaires. The excess odds ratio per gray (EOR/Gy) was modelled using linear and linear-exponential functions.

RESULTS

For thyroid doses <5 Gy, the dose-response was linear (n=85; EOR/Gy=2.15, 95% confidence interval: 0.81-5.47), but at higher doses the excess risk fell. The EOR/Gy was significantly increased among those with prior or screening-detected diffuse goiter, and larger for men than women, and for persons exposed before age 5 than those exposed between 5 and 18 years, although not statistically significant. A somewhat higher EOR/Gy was estimated for validated pre-screening cases.

CONCLUSION

10-15 years after the Chornobyl accident, thyroid cancer risk was significantly increased among individuals exposed to fallout as children or adolescents, but the risk appeared to be lower than in other Chornobyl studies and studies of childhood external irradiation.