Inferring Diversification Rate Variation From Phylogenies With Fossils

Integrative Phylogenetics: Tools for Palaeontologists to Explore the Tree of Life

The modern era of analytical and quantitative palaeobiology has only just begun, integrating methods such as morphological and molecular phylogenetics and divergence time estimation, as well as phenotypic and molecular rates of evolution. Calibrating the tree of life to geological time is at the nexus of many disparate disciplines, from palaeontology to molecular systematics and from geochronology to comparative genomics. Creating an evolutionary time scale of the major events that shaped biodiversity is key to all of these fields and draws from each of them. Different methodological approaches and data employed in various disciplines have traditionally made collaborative research efforts difficult among these disciplines. However, the development of new methods is bridging the historical gap between fields, providing a holistic perspective on organismal evolutionary history, integrating all of the available evidence from living and fossil species. Because phylogenies with only extant taxa do not contain enough information to either calibrate the tree of life or fully infer macroevolutionary dynamics, phylogenies should preferably include both extant and extinct taxa, which can only be achieved through the inclusion of phenotypic data. This integrative phylogenetic approach provides ample and novel opportunities for evolutionary biologists to benefit from palaeontological data to help establish an evolutionary time scale and to test core macroevolutionary hypotheses about the drivers of biological diversification across various dimensions of organisms.

A flexible method for estimating tip diversification rates across a range of speciation and extinction scenarios

Estimates of diversification rates at the tips of a phylogeny provide a flexible approach for correlation analyses with multiple traits and to map diversification rates in space while also avoiding the uncertainty of deep time rate reconstructions. Available methods for tip rate estimation make different assumptions, and thus their accuracy usually depends on the characteristics of the underlying model generating the tree. Here, we introduce MiSSE, a trait-free, state-dependent speciation and extinction approach that can be used to estimate varying speciation, extinction, net diversification, turnover, and extinction fractions at the tips of the tree. We compare the accuracy of tip rates inferred by MiSSE against similar methods and demonstrate that, due to certain characteristics of the model, the error is generally low across a broad range of speciation and extinction scenarios. MiSSE can be used alongside regular phylogenetic comparative methods in trait-related diversification hypotheses, and we also describe a simple correction to avoid pseudoreplication from sister tips in analyses of independent contrasts. Finally, we demonstrate the capabilities of MiSSE, with a renewed focus on classic comparative methods, to examine the correlation between plant height and turnover rates in eucalypts, a species-rich lineage of flowering plants.

Multiple evolutionary origins and losses of tooth complexity in squamates

Teeth act as tools for acquiring and processing food, thus holding a prominent role in vertebrate evolution. In mammals, dental-dietary adaptations rely on tooth complexity variations controlled by cusp number and pattern. Complexity increase through cusp addition has dominated the diversification of mammals. However, studies of Mammalia alone cannot reveal patterns of tooth complexity conserved throughout vertebrate evolution. Here, we use morphometric and phylogenetic comparative methods across fossil and extant squamates to show they also repeatedly evolved increasingly complex teeth, but with more flexibility than mammals. Since the Late Jurassic, multiple-cusped teeth evolved over 20 times independently from a single-cusped common ancestor. Squamates frequently lost cusps and evolved varied multiple-cusped morphologies at heterogeneous rates. Tooth complexity evolved in correlation with changes in plant consumption, resulting in several major increases in speciation. Complex teeth played a critical role in vertebrate evolution outside Mammalia, with squamates exemplifying a more labile system of dental-dietary evolution.

Deep time diversity and the early radiations of birds

Reconstructing the history of biodiversity has been hindered by often-separate analyses of stem and crown groups of the clades in question that are not easily understood within the same unified evolutionary framework. Here, we investigate the evolutionary history of birds by analyzing three supertrees that combine published phylogenies of both stem and crown birds. Our analyses reveal three distinct large-scale increases in the diversification rate across bird evolutionary history. The first increase, which began between 160 and 170 Ma and reached its peak between 130 and 135 Ma, corresponds to an accelerated morphological evolutionary rate associated with the locomotory systems among early stem birds. This radiation resulted in morphospace occupation that is larger and different from their close dinosaurian relatives, demonstrating the occurrence of a radiation among early stem birds. The second increase, which started ∼90 Ma and reached its peak between 65 and 55 Ma, is associated with rapid evolution of the cranial skeleton among early crown birds, driven differently from the first radiation. The third increase, which occurred after ∼40 to 45 Ma, has yet to be supported by quantitative morphological data but gains some support from the fossil record. Our analyses indicate that the bird biodiversity evolution was influenced mainly by long-term climatic changes and also by major paleobiological events such as the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction.

Global topographic uplift has elevated speciation in mammals and birds over the last 3 million years

Topographic change shapes the evolution of biodiversity by influencing both habitat connectivity and habitat diversity as well as abiotic factors like climate. However, its role in creating global biodiversity gradients remains poorly characterized because geology, climate and evolutionary data have rarely been integrated across concordant timescales. Here we show that topographic uplift over the last 3 million years explains more spatial variation in the speciation of all mammals and birds than do the direct effects of palaeoclimate change and both present-day elevation and present-day temperature. By contrast, the effects of topographic changes are much smaller than those of present-day temperatures in eroded areas. Together, our results stress that historical geological processes rather than traditionally studied macroecological gradients may ultimately generate much of the world's biodiversity. More broadly, as the Earth's surface continues to rise and fall, topography will remain an important driver of evolutionary change and novelty.

Sphenodontian phylogeny and the impact of model choice in Bayesian morphological clock estimates of divergence times and evolutionary rates

BACKGROUND

The vast majority of all life that ever existed on earth is now extinct and several aspects of their evolutionary history can only be assessed by using morphological data from the fossil record. Sphenodontian reptiles are a classic example, having an evolutionary history of at least 230 million years, but currently represented by a single living species (Sphenodon punctatus). Hence, it is imperative to improve the development and implementation of probabilistic models to estimate evolutionary trees from morphological data (e.g., morphological clocks), which has direct benefits to understanding relationships and evolutionary patterns for both fossil and living species. However, the impact of model choice on morphology-only datasets has been poorly explored.

RESULTS

Here, we investigate the impact of a wide array of model choices on the inference of evolutionary trees and macroevolutionary parameters (divergence times and evolutionary rates) using a new data matrix on sphenodontian reptiles. Specifically, we tested different clock models, clock partitioning, taxon sampling strategies, sampling for ancestors, and variations on the fossilized birth-death (FBD) tree model parameters through time. We find a strong impact on divergence times and background evolutionary rates when applying widely utilized approaches, such as allowing for ancestors in the tree and the inappropriate assumption of diversification parameters being constant through time. We compare those results with previous studies on the impact of model choice to molecular data analysis and provide suggestions for improving the implementation of morphological clocks. Optimal model combinations find the radiation of most major lineages of sphenodontians to be in the Triassic and a gradual but continuous drop in morphological rates of evolution across distinct regions of the phenotype throughout the history of the group.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a new hypothesis of sphenodontian classification, along with detailed macroevolutionary patterns in the evolutionary history of the group. Importantly, we provide suggestions to avoid overestimated divergence times and biased parameter estimates using morphological clocks. Partitioning relaxed clocks offers methodological limitations, but those can be at least partially circumvented to reveal a detailed assessment of rates of evolution across the phenotype and tests of evolutionary mosaicism.

Extinction rates of non-avian dinosaur species are uncorrelated with the rate of evolution of phylogenetically informative characters

Determining the factors that shape temporal variation in species diversity is an ongoing challenge. One theory is that species exhibiting lower rates of phenotypic evolution should be more likely to go extinct as they are more susceptible to changing environmental conditions. However, little work has been done to assess whether this process shapes comparatively few lineages, or is a common mechanism shaping changes in species diversity. Here, I analyse the correlation between rates of morphological evolution and extinction at the species level using six published morphological matrices of non-avian dinosaurs. I find no correlation between the two rates at different taxonomic scales, suggesting that extinction in these groups is better described by other factors. As there is a strong prior expectation of correlated rates, I suggest that traditional morphological matrices are inappropriate for addressing this question and that the characters governing lineage persistence are independent of those with high phylogenetic signal. This may be comprehensively determined with continued development of phenomic matrices.

Novel phylogenetic methods are needed for understanding gene function in the era of mega-scale genome sequencing

Ongoing large-scale genome sequencing projects are forecasting a data deluge that will almost certainly overwhelm current analytical capabilities of evolutionary genomics. In contrast to population genomics, there are no standardized methods in evolutionary genomics for extracting evolutionary and functional (e.g. gene-trait association) signal from genomic data. Here, we examine how current practices of multi-species comparative genomics perform in this aspect and point out that many genomic datasets are under-utilized due to the lack of powerful methodologies. As a result, many current analyses emphasize gene families for which some functional data is already available, resulting in a growing gap between functionally well-characterized genes/organisms and the universe of unknowns. This leaves unknown genes on the 'dark side' of genomes, a problem that will not be mitigated by sequencing more and more genomes, unless we develop tools to infer functional hypotheses for unknown genes in a systematic manner. We provide an inventory of recently developed methods capable of predicting gene-gene and gene-trait associations based on comparative data, then argue that realizing the full potential of whole genome datasets requires the integration of phylogenetic comparative methods into genomics, a rich but underutilized toolbox for looking into the past.

Angiosperm speciation cools down in the tropics

Recent evidence has questioned whether the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient (LDG), whereby species richness increases towards the Equator, results in higher rates of speciation in the tropics. Allowing for time heterogeneity in speciation rate estimates for over 60,000 angiosperm species, we found that the LDG does not arise from variation in speciation rates because lineages do not speciate faster in the tropics. These results were consistently retrieved using two other methods to test the association between occupancy of tropical habitats and speciation rates. Our speciation rate estimates were robust to the effects of both undescribed species and missing taxa. Overall, our results show that speciation rates follow an opposite pattern to global variation in species richness. Greater ecological opportunity in the temperate zones, stemming from less saturated communities, higher species turnover or greater environmental change, may ultimately explain these results.