Disentangling the drivers of non-stationarity in tree growth

Identifying drivers of non-stationary climate-growth relationships of European beech

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

High risk, high gain? Trade-offs between growth and resistance to extreme events differ in northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.)

Information about the resistance and adaptive potential of tree species and provenances is needed to select suitable planting material in times of rapidly changing climate conditions. In this study, we evaluate growth responses to climatic fluctuations and extreme events for 12 provenances of northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) that were tested across three trial sites with distinct environmental conditions in Germany. Six provenances each were sourced from the natural distribution in North America and from introduced stands in Germany. We collected increment cores of 16 trees per provenance and site. Dendroecological methods were used to compare provenance performance and establish climate-growth relationships to identify the main growth limiting factors. To evaluate the provenance response to extreme drought and frost events, three site-specific drought years were selected according to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and 2010 as a year with an extreme late frost event. Resistance indices for these years were calculated and assessed in relation to overall growth performance. We observed a high variation in growth and in the climate sensitivity between sites depending on the prevailing climatic conditions, as well as a high intra-specific variation. Overall, summer drought and low temperatures in the early growing season appear to constrain the growth of red oak. The resistance of provenances within sites and extreme years showed considerable rank changes and interaction effects. We did not find a trade-off between growth and resistance to late frost, namely, fast growing provenances had a high frost hardiness. Further, there was no evidence for a trade-off between growth and drought hardiness. Still, responses to drought or late frost differ between provenances, pointing to dissimilar adaptive strategies. Provenances from introduced (i.e. German) stands represent suitable seed sources, as they combine a higher growth and frost hardiness compared to their North American counterparts. Drought hardiness was slightly higher in the slow-growing provenances. The results provide a better understanding of the variable adaptive strategies between provenances and help to select suitable planting material for adaptive forest management.