Cost and effectiveness of the California triple marker prenatal screening program

Mixture of air pollution, brominated flame retardants, polychlorinated biphenyls, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, and organochlorine pesticides in relation to vitamin D concentrations in pregnancy

Over two-thirds of pregnant women in the U.S. have insufficient 25(OH)D (Vitamin D) concentrations, which can adversely impact fetal health. Several pollutants have been associated with 25(OH)D, but have not been considered in the context of chemical co-exposures. We aimed to determine associations between a broad mixture of prenatal environmental chemical exposures and 25(OH)D concentrations in mid-pregnancy. Stored mid-pregnancy serum samples were assayed from 421 women delivering live births in Southern California in 2000-2003. 25(OH)D, six BFRs, eleven polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), six per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, and two organochlorine pesticides were detected in ≥60% of specimens. Gestational exposures to airborne particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10) and ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone concentrations were derived from monitoring station data. Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) and Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) analyses estimated overall mixture and individual chemical associations accounting for co-exposures and covariates with mean 25(OH)D levels, and BHM was used to estimate associations with insufficient (<75 nMol/L) 25(OH)D levels. Non-mixture associations for each chemical were estimated with linear and logistic models. PM10 [BHM estimate: -0.133 nmol/l 95% Credible Interval (-0.240, -0.026)] was associated with lower 25(OH)D in BHM and BKMR. Higher quantiles of combined exposures were associated with lower 25(OH)D, though with wide credible intervals. In non-mixture models, PM10, PM2.5, NO, and NO2 were associated with lower concentrations, while O3 and PBDE153 were associated with higher 25(OH)D and/or lower insufficiency. While some chemicals were associated with increased and others with decreased 25(OH)D concentrations, the overall mixture was associated with lower concentrations. Mixture analyses differed from non-mixture regressions, highlighting the importance of mixtures approaches for estimating real-world associations.

Protective Places: the Relationship between Neighborhood Quality and Preterm Births to Black Women in Oakland, California (2007-2011)

Black women have the highest incidence of preterm birth (PTB). Upstream factors, including neighborhood context, may be key drivers of this increased risk. This study assessed the relationship between neighborhood quality, defined by the Healthy Places Index, and PTB among Black women who lived in Oakland, California, and gave birth between 2007 and 2011 (N = 5418 women, N = 107 census tracts). We found that, compared with those living in lower quality neighborhoods, women living in higher quality neighborhoods had 20-38% lower risk of PTB, independent of confounders. Findings have implications for place-based research and interventions to address racial inequities in PTB.

The association of in utero tobacco smoke exposure, quantified by serum cotinine, and Autism Spectrum Disorder

Previous studies on in utero exposure to maternal environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) or maternal active smoking and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) have not been entirely consistent, and no studies have examined in utero cotinine concentrations as an exposure classification method. We measured cotinine in stored second trimester maternal serum for 498 ASD cases and 499 controls born in California in 2011-2012. We also obtained self-reported maternal cigarette smoking during and immediately prior to pregnancy, as well as covariate data, from birth records. Using unconditional logistic regression, we found no association between log10 cotinine concentrations and odds for developing ASD among children of non-smokers (aOR: 0.93 [95% CI: 0.69, 1.25] per ng/ml), which represents exposure to ETS, though there may be a possible interaction with race. We found no association between cotinine-defined smoking (≥3.08 ng/ml vs. <3.08 ng/ml) (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.73 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.35, 1.54)) or self-reported smoking (aOR: 1.64 [95% CI: 0.65, 4.16]) and ASD. In one of the few studies of ETS and the first with measured cotinine, our results indicate no overall relationship between in utero exposure to tobacco smoke from maternal ETS exposure or active smoking, and development of ASD. LAY SUMMARY: This study found that women who smoke or are exposed to tobacco smoke during pregnancy are not more likely to have children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). This is the first ASD study to measure a chemical in the mother's blood during pregnancy to identify exposure to tobacco smoke.

A profile and review of findings from the Early Markers for Autism study: unique contributions from a population-based case-control study in California

BACKGROUND

The Early Markers for Autism (EMA) study is a population-based case-control study designed to learn more about early biologic processes involved in ASD.

METHODS

Participants were drawn from Southern California births from 2000 to 2003 with archived prenatal and neonatal screening specimens. Across two phases, children with ASD (n = 629) and intellectual disability without ASD (ID, n = 230) were ascertained from the California Department of Developmental Services (DDS), with diagnoses confirmed according to DSM-IV-TR criteria based on expert clinical review of abstracted records. General population controls (GP, n = 599) were randomly sampled from birth certificate files and matched to ASD cases by sex, birth month and year after excluding individuals with DDS records. EMA has published over 20 papers examining immune markers, endogenous hormones, environmental chemicals, and genetic factors in association with ASD and ID. This review summarizes the results across these studies, as well as the EMA study design and future directions.

RESULTS

EMA enabled several key contributions to the literature, including the examination of biomarker levels in biospecimens prospectively collected during critical windows of neurodevelopment. Key findings from EMA include demonstration of elevated cytokine and chemokine levels in maternal mid-pregnancy serum samples in association with ASD, as well as aberrations in other immune marker levels; suggestions of increased odds of ASD with prenatal exposure to certain endocrine disrupting chemicals, though not in mixture analyses; and demonstration of maternal and fetal genetic influence on prenatal chemical, and maternal and neonatal immune marker and vitamin D levels. We also observed an overall lack of association with ASD and measured maternal and neonatal vitamin D, mercury, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) levels.

LIMITATIONS

Covariate and outcome data were limited to information in Vital Statistics and DDS records. As a study based in Southern California, generalizability for certain environmental exposures may be reduced.

CONCLUSIONS

Results across EMA studies support the importance of the prenatal and neonatal periods in ASD etiology, and provide evidence for the role of the maternal immune response during pregnancy. Future directions for EMA, and the field of ASD in general, include interrogation of mechanistic pathways and examination of combined effects of exposures.

Untargeted Metabolomics Screen of Mid-pregnancy Maternal Serum and Autism in Offspring

Discovering pathophysiologic networks in a blood-based approach may help to generate valuable tools for early treatment or preventive measures in autism. To date targeted or untargeted metabolomics approaches to identify metabolic features and pathways affecting fetal neurodevelopment have rarely been applied to pregnancy samples, that is, an early period potentially relevant for the development of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We conducted a population-based study relying on autism diagnoses retrieved from California Department of Developmental Services record. After linking cases to and sampling controls from birth certificates, we retrieved stored maternal mid-pregnancy serum samples collected as part of the California Prenatal Screening Program from the California Biobank for children born 2004 to 2010 in the central valley of California. We retrieved serum for 52 mothers whose children developed autism and 62 population controls originally selected from all eligible children matched by birth year and child's sex. Also, we required that these mothers were relatively low or unexposed to air pollution and select pesticides during early pregnancy. We identified differences in metabolite levels in several metabolic pathways, including glycosphingolipid biosynthesis and metabolism, N-glycan and pyrimidine metabolism, bile acid pathways and, importantly, C21-steroid hormone biosynthesis and metabolism. Disturbances in these pathways have been shown to be relevant for neurodevelopment in rare genetic syndromes or implicated in previous studies of autism. This study provides new insight into maternal mid-pregnancy metabolic features possibly related to the development of autism and an incentive to explore whether these pathways and metabolites are useful for early diagnosis, treatment, or prevention. LAY SUMMARY: This study found that in mid-pregnancy the blood of mothers who give birth to a child that develops autism has some characteristic features that are different from those of blood samples taken from control mothers. These features are related to biologic mechanisms that can affect fetal brain development. In the future, these insights may help identify biomarkers for early autism diagnosis and treatment or preventive measures. Autism Res 2020, 13: 1258-1269. © 2020 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Early pregnancy prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus risk using prenatal screening biomarkers in nulliparous women

AIMS

To evaluate the clinical utility of first and second trimester prenatal screening biomarkers for early pregnancy prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) risk in nulliparous women.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of nulliparous women participating in the California Prenatal Screening Program from 2009 to 2011 (n = 105,379). GDM was ascertained from hospital discharge records or birth certificates. Models including maternal characteristics and prenatal screening biomarkers were developed and validated. Risk stratification and reclassification were performed to assess clinical utility of the biomarkers.

RESULTS

Decreased levels of first trimester pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and increased levels of second trimester unconjugated estriol (uE₃) and dimeric inhibin A (INH) were associated with GDM. The addition of PAPP-A only and PAPP-A, uE₃, and INH to maternal characteristics resulted in small, yet significant, increases in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (maternal characteristics only: AUC 0.714 (95% CI 0.703-0.724), maternal characteristics + PAPP-A: AUC 0.718 (95% CI 0.707-0.728), maternal characteristics + PAPP-A, uE₃, and INH: AUC 0.722 (0.712-0.733)); however, no net improvement in classification was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

PAPP-A, uE₃, and INH have limited clinical utility for prediction of GDM risk in nulliparous women. Utility of other readily accessible clinical biomarkers in predicting GDM risk warrants further investigation.

Maternal serum metabolome and traffic-related air pollution exposure in pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Maternal exposure to traffic-related air pollution during pregnancy has been shown to increase the risk of adverse birth outcomes and neurodevelopmental disorders. By utilizing high-resolution metabolomics (HRM), we investigated perturbations of the maternal serum metabolome in response to traffic-related air pollution to identify biological mechanisms.

METHODS

We retrieved stored mid-pregnancy serum samples from 160 mothers who lived in the Central Valley of California known for high air particulate levels. We estimated prenatal traffic-related air pollution exposure (carbon monoxide, nitric oxides, and particulate matter <2.5 μm) during first-trimester using the California Line Source Dispersion Model, version 4 (CALINE4) based on residential addresses recorded at birth. We used liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry to obtain untargeted metabolic profiles and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) to select metabolic features associated with air pollution exposure. Pathway analyses were employed to identify biologic pathways related to air pollution exposure. As potential confounders we included maternal age, maternal race/ethnicity, and maternal education.

RESULTS

In total we extracted 4038 and 4957 metabolic features from maternal serum samples in hydrophilic interaction (HILIC) chromatography (positive ion mode) and C18 (negative ion mode) columns, respectively. After controlling for confounding factors, PLS-DA (Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) ≥2) yielded 181 and 251 metabolic features (HILIC and C18, respectively) that discriminated between the high (n = 98) and low exposed (n = 62). Pathway enrichment analysis for discriminatory features associated with air pollution indicated that in maternal serum oxidative stress and inflammation related pathways were altered, including linoleate, leukotriene, and prostaglandin pathways.

CONCLUSION

The metabolomic features and pathways we found to be associated with air pollution exposure suggest that maternal exposure during pregnancy induces oxidative stress and inflammation pathways previously implicated in pregnancy complications and adverse outcomes.

Differences in Prenatal Tobacco Exposure Patterns among 13 Race/Ethnic Groups in California

Prenatal tobacco exposure is a significant, preventable cause of childhood morbidity, yet little is known about exposure risks for many race/ethnic subpopulations. We studied active smoking and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure in a population-based cohort of 13 racially/ethnically diverse pregnant women: white, African American, Hispanic, Native American, including nine Asian/Pacific Islander subgroups: Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Filipino, Cambodian, Vietnamese, Laotian, Samoan, and Asian Indians (N = 3329). Using the major nicotine metabolite, cotinine, as an objective biomarker, we analyzed mid-pregnancy serum from prenatal screening banked in 1999–2002 from Southern California in an effort to understand differences in tobacco exposure patterns by race/ethnicity, as well as provide a baseline for future work to assess secular changes and longer-term health outcomes. Prevalence of active smoking (based on age- and race-specific cotinine cutpoints) was highest among African American, Samoan, Native Americans and whites (6.8–14.1%); and lowest among Filipinos, Chinese, Vietnamese and Asian Indians (0.3–1.0%). ETS exposure among non-smokers was highest among African Americans and Samoans, followed by Cambodians, Native Americans, Vietnamese and Koreans, and lowest among Filipinos, Japanese, whites, and Chinese. At least 75% of women had detectable cotinine. While for most groups, levels of active smoking corresponded with levels of ETS, divergent patterns were also found. For example, smoking prevalence among white women was among the highest, but the group’s ETS exposure was low among non-smokers; while Vietnamese women were unlikely to be active smokers, they experienced relatively high ETS exposure. Knowledge of race/ethnic differences may be useful in assessing disparities in health outcomes and creating successful tobacco interventions.

Life-course neighbourhood opportunity and racial-ethnic disparities in risk of preterm birth

BACKGROUND

Neighbourhood opportunity, measured by poverty, income and deprivation, has been associated with preterm birth, however little is known about the contribution of early-life and life-course neighbourhood opportunity to preterm birth risk and racial-ethnic disparities. We examined maternal early-life and adult neighbourhood opportunity in relation to risk of preterm birth and racial-ethnic disparities in a population-based cohort of women under age 30.

METHODS

We linked census tract poverty data to 2 generations of California births from 1982-2011 for 403 315 white, black, or Latina mothers-infant pairs. We estimated the risk of preterm birth, and risk difference (RD) comparing low opportunity (≥20% poverty) in early life or adulthood to high opportunity using targeted maximum likelihood estimation.

RESULTS

At each time point, low opportunity was related to increased preterm birth risk compared to higher opportunity neighbourhoods for white, black and Latina mothers (RDs 0.3-0.7%). Compared to high opportunity at both time points, risk differences were generally highest for sustained low opportunity (RD 1.5, 1.3, and 0.7% for white, black and Latina mothers, respectively); risk was elevated with downward mobility (RD 0.7, 1.3, and 0.4% for white, black and Latina mothers, respectively), and with upward mobility only among black mothers (RD 1.2%). The black-white preterm birth disparity was reduced by 22% under high life-course opportunity.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-life and sustained exposure to residential poverty is related to increased PTB risk, particularly among black women, and may partially explain persistent black-white disparities.

Spanish- and English-Speaking Pregnant Women's Views on cfDNA and Other Prenatal Screening: Practical and Ethical Reflections

The rapid clinical implementation of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) screening, a non-invasive method of prenatal genetic screening, has outpaced research on its social and ethical implications. This study is the first to compare the ethical and practical views of Spanish- and English-speaking pregnant women in the United States about cfDNA screening. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with diverse Spanish- and English-speaking women who had received prenatal care at a large academic medical center. Of the 24 interviewees, ten were Latinas who were interviewed in Spanish; English-language interviews were conducted with seven non-Hispanic Asian and seven non-Hispanic White women. Participants held positive opinions concerning the accuracy of cfDNA screening and often noted that it would enhance preparedness. Participants also expressed concerns about the possibility of inaccurate results and the potentially negative effects of cfDNA screening on the experience of pregnancy. Differences emerged between Spanish and English speakers in their portrayals of their relationships with prenatal health care providers, the extent to which they questioned providers' advice, their ethical concerns, and their informational needs. We emphasize the importance of customizing prenatal test counseling to the needs of the individual patient, providing educationally appropriate counseling and literature, and mitigating potential language barriers.

Autism Spectrum Disorder Risk in Relation to Maternal Mid-Pregnancy Serum Hormone and Protein Markers from Prenatal Screening in California

We examined prenatal screening markers and offspring autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using California statewide data on singleton births in 1996 and 2002. Second trimester levels of unconjugated estriol (uE3), human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), and maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) were compared between mothers of children with ASD (n = 2586) and of non-cases (n = 600,103). Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were calculated by logistic regression. Lower uE3 (AOR for < 10th percentile vs. 25th-74th percentiles = 1.21, 95 % CI 1.06-1.37), and higher MSAFP (AOR = 1.21, 95 % CI 1.07-1.37 for > 90th percentile) were significantly associated with ASD. A U-shaped relationship was seen for hCG (AOR = 1.16, 95 % CI 1.02-1.32 for < 10th percentile; AOR = 1.19, 95 % CI 1.05-1.36 for > 90th percentile). Our results further support prenatal hormone involvement in ASD risk.

Thyroid Hormones and Moderate Exposure to Perchlorate during Pregnancy in Women in Southern California

BACKGROUND

Findings from national surveys suggest that everyone in the United States is exposed to perchlorate. At high doses, perchlorate, thiocyanate, and nitrate inhibit iodide uptake into the thyroid and decrease thyroid hormone production. Small changes in thyroid hormones during pregnancy, including changes within normal reference ranges, have been linked to cognitive function declines in the offspring.

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the potential effects of low environmental exposures to perchlorate on thyroid function.

METHODS

Serum thyroid hormones and anti-thyroid antibodies and urinary perchlorate, thiocyanate, nitrate, and iodide concentrations were measured in 1,880 pregnant women from San Diego County, California, during 2000-2003, a period when much of the area's water supply was contaminated from an industrial plant with perchlorate at levels near the 2007 California regulatory standard of 6 μg/L. Linear regression was used to evaluate associations between urinary perchlorate and serum thyroid hormone concentrations in models adjusted for urinary creatinine and thiocyanate, maternal age and education, ethnicity, and gestational age at serum collection.

RESULTS

The median urinary perchlorate concentration was 6.5 μg/L, about two times higher than in the general U.S.

POPULATION

Adjusted associations were identified between increasing log10 perchlorate and decreasing total thyroxine (T4) [regression coefficient (β) = -0.70; 95% CI: -1.06, -0.34], decreasing free thyroxine (fT4) (β = -0.053; 95% CI: -0.092, -0.013), and increasing log10 thyroid-stimulating hormone (β = 0.071; 95% CI: 0.008, 0.133).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that environmental perchlorate exposures may affect thyroid hormone production during pregnancy. This could have implications for public health given widespread perchlorate exposure and the importance of thyroid hormone in fetal neurodevelopment.

CITATION

Steinmaus C, Pearl M, Kharrazi M, Blount BC, Miller MD, Pearce EN, Valentin-Blasini L, DeLorenze G, Hoofnagle AN, Liaw J. 2016. Thyroid hormones and moderate exposure to perchlorate during pregnancy in women in Southern California. Environ Health Perspect 124:861-867; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409614.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of First Trimester Non-Invasive Prenatal Screening for Fetal Trisomies in the United States

Background

Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) is a relatively new technology for diagnosis of fetal aneuploidies. NIPT is more accurate than conventional maternal serum screening (MSS) but is also more costly. Contingent NIPT may provide a cost-effective alternative to universal NIPT screening. Contingent screening used a two-stage process in which risk is assessed by MSS in the first stage and, based on a risk cutoff, high-risk pregnancies are referred for NIPT. The objective of this study was to (1) determine the optimum MSS risk cutoff for contingent NIPT and (2) compare the cost effectiveness of optimized contingent NIPT to universal NIPT and conventional MSS.

Study Design

Decision-analytic model using micro-simulation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We evaluated cost effectiveness from three perspectives: societal, governmental, and payer.

Results

From a societal perspective, universal NIPT dominated both contingent NIPT and MSS. From a government and payer perspective, contingent NIPT dominated MSS. Compared to contingent NIPT, adopting a universal NIPT would cost $203,088 for each additional case detected from a government perspective and $263,922 for each additional case detected from a payer perspective.

Conclusions

From a societal perspective, universal NIPT is a cost-effective alternative to MSS and contingent NIPT. When viewed from narrower perspectives, contingent NIPT is less costly than universal NIPT and provides a cost-effective alternative to MSS.

Cost-effectiveness analysis for triple markers serum screening for Down's syndrome in Thai setting

BACKGROUND:

Down's syndrome is an important congenital chromosomal disorder that can be seen around the world. The antenatal screening for this disorder is an important processing in present obstetrics.

OBJECTIVE:

Due to the concept of first do no harm, the use of noninvasive test is recommended. The triple marker screening test has been introduced for a few years and acceptable for its efficacy.

RESULT:

However, an important concern is on its cost-effectiveness. Here, the author analyze and present the cost-effectiveness of the triple markers serum screening for Down's syndrome in Thai setting.

CONCLUSION:

According to this work, the cost per effectiveness of triple markers serum screening is slightly lower than standard amniocentesis test.

Cost-effectiveness of prenatal screening strategies for congenital heart disease

OBJECTIVE

The economic implications of strategies to improve prenatal screening for congenital heart disease (CHD) in low-risk mothers have not been explored. The aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of different screening methods.

METHODS

We constructed a decision analytic model of CHD prenatal screening strategies (four-chamber screen (4C), 4C + outflow, nuchal translucency (NT) or fetal echocardiography) populated with probabilities from the literature. The model included whether initial screens were interpreted by a maternal-fetal medicine (MFM) specialist and different referral strategies if they were read by a non-MFM specialist. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per defect detected. Costs were obtained from Medicare National Fee estimates. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken on model variables commensurate with their degree of uncertainty.

RESULTS

In base-case analysis, 4C + outflow referred to an MFM specialist was the least costly strategy per defect detected. The 4C screen and the NT screen were dominated by other strategies (i.e. were more costly and less effective). Fetal echocardiography was the most effective, but most costly. On simulation of 10 000 low-risk pregnancies, 4C + outflow screen referred to an MFM specialist remained the least costly per defect detected. For an additional $580 per defect detected, referral to cardiology after a 4C + outflow was the most cost-effective for the majority of iterations, increasing CHD detection by 13 percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of examination of the outflow tracts to second-trimester ultrasound increases detection of CHD in the most cost-effective manner. Strategies to improve outflow-tract imaging and to refer with the most efficiency may be the best way to improve detection at a population level.

Levels of cotinine in dried blood specimens from newborns as a biomarker of maternal smoking close to the time of delivery

The precise quantitation of smoking during pregnancy is difficult in retrospective studies. Routinely collected blood specimens from newborns, stored as dried blood spots, may provide a low-cost method to objectively measure maternal smoking close to the time of delivery. This article compares cotinine levels in dried blood spots to those in umbilical cord blood to assess cotinine in dried blood spots as a biomarker of maternal smoking close to the time of delivery. The California Genetic Disease Screening Program provided dried blood spots from 428 newborns delivered in 2001-2003 with known umbilical cord blood cotinine levels. Cotinine in dried blood spots was measured in 6.35--mm punches by using liquid chromatography--tandem mass spectrometry (quantitation limit, 3.1 ng/mL). Repeated measures of cotinine in dried blood spots were highly correlated (R(2) = 0.99, P < 0.001) among 100 dried blood spots with cotinine quantitated in 2 separate punches. Linear regression revealed that cotinine levels in dried blood spots were slightly lower than those in umbilical cord blood and predicted umbilical cord blood cotinine levels well (β = 0.95, R(2) = 0.80, and P < 0.001 for both cotinine levels in log10 scale). When defining active smoking as a cotinine level of 10 ng/mL or more and using umbilical cord blood cotinine as the criterion standard, we found that measurements of cotinine in dried blood spots had high sensitivity (92.3%) and specificity (99.7%) in the prediction of maternal active smoking. Cotinine levels in dried blood spots are an accurate biomarker of maternal smoking close to the time of delivery.

Natural selection in utero induced by mass layoffs: the hCG evidence

Evolutionary theory, when coupled with research from epidemiology, demography, and population endocrinology, suggests that contracting economies affect the fitness and health of human populations via natural selection in utero. We know, for example, that fetal death increases more among males than females when the economy unexpectedly contracts; that unexpected economic contraction predicts low secondary sex ratios; and that males from low sex ratio birth cohorts live, on average, longer than those from high sex ratio cohorts. We also know that low levels of human chorionic gonadotropin (i.e., hCG) measured in the serum of pregnant women predict fetal death. We do not, however, know whether male survivors of conception cohorts subjected to contracting economies exhibit, as theory predicts, higher hCG than those from other cohorts. We show, in 71 monthly conception cohorts including nearly two million California births, that they do. We thereby add to the literature suggesting that the economy, a phenomenon over which we collectively exercise at least some control, affects population health. Our findings imply that the effect arises via natural selection - a mechanism we largely ignore when attempting to explain, or alter, how collective choice affects our biology.

A test of maternal human chorionic gonadotropin during pregnancy as an adaptive filter of human gestations

The risk of abnormalities and morbidity among live births increases with advanced maternal age. Explanations for this elevated morbidity invoke several maternal mechanisms. The relaxed filter stringency (RFS) hypothesis asserts that mothers, nearing the end of their reproductive lifespan, reduce the stringency of a screen of offspring quality in utero based on life-history traits of parity and interbirth interval (IBI). A separate line of research implicates human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) during pregnancy as a signal of offspring quality. We test the RFS hypothesis directly by examining whether the difference in gestational hCG across consecutive live births varies positively with the mother's number of previous live births but inversely with her most recent IBI. We applied multivariable regression methods to a unique dataset of gestational hCG for over 500 000 live births from 2002 to 2007. The difference in gestational hCG across mothers' consecutive live births varies positively with both mothers' parity and IBI. These associations remain similar among older mothers (35+ years). Findings support the RFS hypothesis for the parity expectation but not for the IBI expectation. Further evidence for the RFS hypothesis among contemporary human gestations would have to invoke screening mechanisms other than hCG.

Hormonal evidence supports the theory of selection in utero

OBJECTIVES

Antagonists in the debate over whether the maternal stress response during pregnancy damages or culls fetuses have invoked the theory of selection in utero to support opposing positions. We describe how these opposing arguments arise from the same theory and offer a novel test to discriminate between them. Our test, rooted in reports from population endocrinology that human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) signals fetal fitness, contributes not only to the debate over the fetal origins of illness, but also to the more basic literature concerned with whether and how natural selection in utero affects contemporary human populations.

METHODS

We linked maternal serum hCG measurements from prenatal screening tests with data from the California Department of Public Health birth registry for the years 2001-2007. We used time series analysis to test the association between the number of live-born male singletons and median hCG concentration among males in monthly gestational cohorts.

RESULTS

Among the 1.56 million gestations in our analysis, we find that median hCG levels among male survivors of monthly conception cohorts rise as the number of male survivors falls.

RESULTS

Elevated median hCG among relatively small male birth cohorts supports the theory of selection in utero and suggests that the maternal stress response culls cohorts in gestation by raising the fitness criterion for survival to birth.

California Very Preterm Birth Study: design and characteristics of the population- and biospecimen bank-based nested case-control study

Very preterm birth (VPTB) is a leading cause of infant mortality, morbidity and racial disparity in the US. The underlying causes of VPTB are multiple and poorly understood. The California Very Preterm Birth Study was conducted to discover maternal and infant genetic and environmental factors associated with VPTB. This paper describes the study design, population, data and specimen collection, laboratory methods and characteristics of the study population. Using a large, population-based cohort created through record linkage of livebirths delivered from 2000 to 2007 in five counties of southern California, and existing data and banked specimens from statewide prenatal and newborn screening, 1100 VPTB cases and 796 control mother-infant pairs were selected for study (385/200 White, 385/253 Hispanic and 330/343 Black cases/controls, respectively). Medical record abstraction of cases was conducted at over 50 hospitals to identify spontaneous VPTB, improve accuracy of gestational age, obtain relevant clinical data and exclude cases that did not meet eligibility criteria. VPTB was defined as birth at <32 weeks in Whites and Hispanics and <34 weeks in Blacks. Approximately 55% of all VPTBs were spontaneous and 45% had medical indications or other exclusions. Of the spontaneous VPTBs, approximately 41% were reported to have chorioamnionitis. While the current focus of the California Very Preterm Birth Study is to assess the role of candidate genetic markers on spontaneous VPTB, its design enables the pursuit of other research opportunities to identify social, clinical and biological determinants of different types of VPTB with the ultimate aim of reducing infant mortality, morbidity and racial disparities in these health outcomes in the US and elsewhere.

The California Prenatal Screening Program: "options and choices" not "coercion and eugenics"

The California Prenatal Screening Program is designed to make prenatal screening available to the state's large and diverse population. The Program provides information to women which will allow them to make informed choices regarding prenatal screening and prenatal diagnosis. Since the Program's inception in 1986, women in California have had the option to participate in prenatal screening or to decline prenatal screening. The California Program offers prenatal diagnostic services to women whose screening tests indicate an increased risk for birth defects, including Down syndrome. Women can decline any or all of these follow-up services. Genetic counseling, diagnostic services, and the presentation of diagnostic results are performed by medical professionals (not State staff) who follow established guidelines for nondirective counseling. Program data clearly demonstrate that women in California have a wide range of options and make a wide range of choices regarding prenatal screening and prenatal diagnosis. California's comprehensive Prenatal Screening Program promotes optimal care for all women within all options and choices. The important and necessary communication among organizations and stakeholders involved in prenatal screening and diagnosis, and in related care for pregnant women and for people with Down syndrome, is not served by misrepresentation and inflammatory rhetoric.

Detection rate of quadruple-marker screening determined by clinical follow-up and registry data in the statewide California program, July 2007 to February 2009

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficiency of California's quadruple-marker screening program and construct receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

METHODS

This study included the screening records of 552 941 women during July 2007 to February 2009. The screen-positive women received clinical follow-up services at state-approved centers. We used the California Chromosome Defect Registry which includes clinical, laboratory, and demographic data from the prenatal diagnostic centers, cytogenetic laboratories, hospitals, and prenatal care providers. Risk calculations, screen-positive rates (SPRs), detection rates (DRs) for chromosomal abnormalities, and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were determined. ROC curves comparing the quadruple-marker to triple-marker screening were constructed.

RESULTS

The DR and SPR for trisomy 21 (N = 827) during the quadruple-marker time period were 75.7% (95% CI 72.8-78.6%) and 3.75% (95% CI 3.70-3.80%) compared with 77.4% (95% CI 75.0-79.7%) and 5.4% during the triple-marker phase. The DRs were 78.2% (95% CI 75.0-81.4%) with ultrasound dating and 66.9% (95% CI 59.7-74.0%) for last-menstrual-period-dated pregnancies. For trisomy 18, triploidy, and trisomy 13, the DRs were 84.3, 95.7, and 43.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The DR for trisomy 21 in California's statewide quadruple-marker screening is very similar to the Program's previously reported DR using triple-marker screening. However, this was achieved at a lower SPR, demonstrating improved screening performance.

Molecular technologies open new clinical genetic vistas

Two recent studies published in Science Translational Medicine (Lo et al., 2010; Bell et al., 2011) demonstrate the potential of applying the latest genome-sequencing technologies to preconception carrier testing and noninvasive prenatal genetic diagnosis. These studies shine new light on old ethical, legal, and social concerns associated with genetic technology and deserve careful discussion.

Second trimester prenatal ultrasound for the detection of pregnancies at increased risk of Trisomy 18 based on serum screening

OBJECTIVE

To describe ultrasound findings in fetuses with Trisomy 18.

METHODS

Prospective population-based cohort study of second trimester ultrasound among Californian women who were at increased risk of chromosome abnormality based on serum screening between November 1999 and April 2001. Structural anomalies plus the following soft markers were assessed: nuchal fold thickening, choroid plexus cyst (CPC), echogenic intracardiac focus, echogenic bowel, renal pyelectasis, clenched hands; clinodactyly; short femur, short humerus and a single umbilical artery (SUA).

RESULTS

Overall, 8763 women underwent ultrasound evaluation, including 56 whose fetuses had Trisomy 18. Ultrasound anomalies were seen in 89% of Trisomy 18 fetuses, as compared with 14% of normal fetuses. If the genetic sonogram was normal (no structural anomaly and no soft marker), the risk was reduced by approximately 90%. The ultrasound soft markers were typically seen in conjunction with structural anomalies in affected fetuses and in the absence of a structural anomaly, most isolated ultrasound soft markers were not associated with Trisomy 18. The only exception was an isolated CPC, seen as the only finding in 11% of fetuses with Trisomy 18.

CONCLUSIONS

If the genetic sonogram is used as a sequential test following serum biochemistry, a normal ultrasound study reduces the likelihood of Trisomy 18 substantially even if a woman has abnormal serum biochemistry. The presence of an isolated CPC raises the risk, but not high enough to prompt invasive testing.

NTD prevalences in central California before and after folic acid fortification

BACKGROUND

In many regions, NTD prevalences were already declining prior to folic acid fortification. This study examined whether the declining prefortification (1989-1996) NTD prevalences continued into the postfortification period (1998-2003) in selected California counties.

METHODS

This population-based study used vital statistics data and birth defects registry data that were actively ascertained from medical records. The study population included all live births and stillbirths delivered in central California counties from 1989 to 2003. Cases included deliveries with NTDs during the same time period.

RESULTS

For all NTDs combined, the slopes indicated that NTD prevalence was decreasing by 7.5 (slope: -7.5; 95% CI: -12.4, -2.5) cases per 100,000 deliveries per year before fortification, whereas NTD prevalence was no longer decreasing after fortification. Comparison of the difference in the two slopes indicated that the postfortification slope exceeded the prefortification slope by 12.6 (95% CI: 2.6, 22.6) cases per 100,000 deliveries per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Annual NTD prevalences in central California did not continue to decrease after implementation of folic acid fortification.

Perceptions of prenatal testing for birth defects among rural Latinas

Objectives To examine rural Latinas' understandings of prenatal testing, birth defects, and risk in the context of their expanded AFP (XAFP) screening decisions. Design We conducted a qualitative study using data from in-depth interviews with 33 Latina women receiving prenatal care at three clinic sites in rural areas of California. We analyzed qualitative data by identifying themes that emerged during iterative transcript readings. Quantitative data was used to generate descriptive summary statistics. Results The majority of the participants had not completed high school and had low levels of acculturation. Women in our study tended to view XAFP screening as a routine component of prenatal care that was important for the "health of the baby." Reasons for accepting the XAFP test included reassurance, emotional preparation, and desire for information. Misconceptions included a belief that a normal screening result provides a guarantee of the fetus's health. Generally, participants indicated that, regardless of the screening results, they would not undergo amniocentesis because of the potential miscarriage risk nor would they terminate a pregnancy if their fetus was found to have a chromosome problem. Numerous specific beliefs that differ substantially from medical models regarding birth defects were articulated. Conclusions XAFP screening decisions among rural Latinas are sometimes based on misconceptions of the meaning of test results and the risks associated with undergoing or foregoing testing, and therefore are frequently incongruent with personal testing philosophies and values. Educational efforts and counseling should include clear communication regarding the goals of prenatal screening programs to help these women make informed testing decisions that are reflective of their values and preferences.

Second trimester prenatal ultrasound for the detection of pregnancies at increased risk of Down syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between second trimester ultrasound findings (genetic sonogram) and the risk of Down syndrome.

METHODS

Prospective population-based cohort study of women who were at increased risk of chromosome abnormality based on serum screening.

RESULTS

Overall 9244 women with singleton pregnancies were included, including 245 whose fetuses had Down syndrome. Overall, 15.3% of the women had an abnormal genetic sonogram, including 14.2% of pregnancies with normal fetuses and 53.1% of those with Down syndrome. If the genetic sonogram were normal, the risk that a woman had a fetus with Down syndrome was reduced (likelihood ratio 0.55 [95% CI 0.49, 0.62]) However, if the normal genetic sonogram were used to counsel these high-risk women that they could avoid amniocentesis, approximately half of the cases of Down syndrome (115 of 245) would have been missed. The isolated ultrasound soft markers were the most commonly observed abnormality. These were seen in a high proportion of Down syndrome fetuses (13.9%) and normal fetuses (9.3%). In the absence of a structural anomaly, the isolated ultrasound soft markers of choroid plexus cyst, echogenic bowel, renal pyelectasis, clenched hands, clinodactyly, two-vessel umbilical cord, short femur, and short humerus were not associated with Down syndrome. Nuchal fold thickening was a notable exception, as a thick nuchal fold raised the risk of Down syndrome even when it was seen without an associated structural anomaly.

LIMITATIONS

All women included in this study were at high risk of Down syndrome based on serum screening, and thus the results of this study cannot be used as a basis to modify maternal age-related risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The accuracy of the genetic sonogram is less than previously reported. The genetic sonogram should not be used as a sequential test following serum biochemistry, as this would substantially reduce the prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome cases. In contrast to prior reports, most isolated soft markers were not associated with Down syndrome.

Twin gestation pregnancies: genetic counseling and testing experience

We report on the prenatal genetic counseling and testing experience in 343 pregnancies with twin or higher multiple gestations. By self-report, 8% (27/343) parents of these pregnancies reported meeting with a genetic counselor, and 23% (79/343) elected prenatal genetic testing. The most common testing procedures elected were maternal serum analyte screening and amniocentesis to identify fetuses with aneuploidy or neural tube defects. Use of prenatal genetic testing was correlated with advanced maternal age. No association was found between use of genetic testing and use of OI/ART or the length of time needed to conceive. Forty percent (11/27) of those who met with a genetic counselor opted to decline prenatal testing/screening. These data suggest that although clients with multiple gestation pregnancies would likely benefit from genetic counseling, many are not availing themselves of this service. Implications of these data for the genetic counseling profession are discussed.

Variation in the decision to terminate pregnancy in the setting of fetal aneuploidy

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the rate of pregnancy termination for various fetal aneuploidies, and to evaluate predictors of this choice.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study identified all patients with any of seven common fetal aneuploidies (trisomies 21, 18, and 13; 45,X, 47,XXX, 47,XXY, and 47,XYY) at a referral prenatal diagnosis unit from 1983 to 2003. We abstracted type of aneuploidy, time and type of diagnostic procedure, maternal age, and ethnicity as predictors of the decision to terminate. Statistical comparisons were made using the chi-square test. Potential confounding variables were controlled for using multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 833 patients who had fetuses with aneuploidy. In our study population, the overall rate of termination was 81%: 86% in cases of autosomal trisomy and 60% in cases of sex chromosome aneuploidy (SCA) (p < 0.001). Rates were lowest in cases with the least severe prognosis, 47,XYY (57%) and 47,XXX (40%) compared with 45,X (65%) and 47,XXY (70%) (p = 0.05). Patients with SCA detected by chorionic villus sampling (CVS) had a higher termination rate than those who had undergone amniocentesis (77% vs 55%, p = 0.015). Increased maternal age was associated with higher termination rates in autosomal trisomy (88% vs 76% p < 0.001) and a trend toward decreased rates in those with SCA (55% vs 71%, p = 0.06). Hispanic women were less likely to terminate pregnancy (69%, p = 0.01) than those from other racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSION

Type and severity of aneuploidy, type of diagnostic procedure, maternal age, and ethnicity contribute to patients' decision-making in the setting of fetal aneuploidy.

Genetic health technology and economic evaluation: a critical review

The aim of the review is to establish whether, on the basis of previous published evidence, current accepted guidance for health economic evaluation needs to be adapted to evaluate healthcare based on use of genetic information. Online literature search strategies were designed (using PubMed and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database [NHS EED], among others) to gather papers carrying out or discussing economic evaluation and genetics. Papers meeting the inclusion criteria were obtained and reviewed. The papers purporting to be economic analyses were classified using the criteria of the NHS EED and the British Medical Journal (BMJ) working party on peer review of health economic literature. Of 120 English-language papers that met the criteria for review, only 37 were economic evaluations according to the criteria set out by the NHS EED and BMJ working party on economic evaluations. Of these 37, only 33 papers discussed economic evaluation methodologies in the genetics context. The economic evaluation papers did not seem to tackle any of the problems discussed in the methodological papers. Economic evaluation methods offer a structured approach for evaluation of changes but may need to change in order to assess the new technologies. We have found that such studies have not been widely reported, and that those that have been reported do not depart from current economic methods. We have identified a need for better skills and guidance in health economics within this growing area of research.

Impact of interpreters' approach on Latinas' use of amniocentesis

Communication difficulties in multicultural clinical settings can be exacerbated by translators, but their actual impact on medical decisions has not been systematically evaluated. This study sought to determine the influence of translators participating in clinical encounters in which English-speaking clinicians offered amniocentesis to Spanish-speaking women by conducting systematic observations of 61 prenatal genetic consultations and recording translators' training and background characteristics and patients' amniocentesis decisions. Translators' behavioral styles were classified according to 10 inductively determined criteria. Translators' approaches were classified as Distant, Authoritative, or Missionary. Whereas the first category remained emotionally detached, the others sought to build rapport and trust with the patient. Quantitative analysis revealed statistically significant associations between translation styles that sought to engender trust and likelihood the pregnant woman agreed to amniocentesis. The authors conclude that translators' affective approaches can influence whether patients accept or decline amniocentesis.

Clinical myths of the cultural "other": implications for Latino patient care

PURPOSE

Cultural competency is now a requirement in the curriculum of many health professions. However, clinicians' understandings of cultural difference, the accuracy of those understandings, and their impact on patient care have not yet been carefully explored. The authors conducted an ethnographic study designed to describe clinicians' views of Latino culture in the context of amniocentesis decision making, compared those to patients' discussions of their decision making, and explored how clinicians' views about culture are manifested in consultations with Latinas.

METHOD

Between 2000 and 2002, semistructured, open-ended interviews were conducted in southern Texas with convenience samples of 50 clinicians who discuss prenatal testing with patients, and 40 self-identified Latina patients who had been offered amniocentesis. Observations were also made of 101 genetic counseling sessions. Content analysis focused on the cultural characteristics clinicians identified as affecting Latinas' decision making, patients' self-reported decision-making processes, and clinician and patient comments and actions observed during genetics counseling sessions.

RESULTS

Most clinicians said Latinas are likely to decline amniocentesis because they are religious, fatalistic, male-dominated, family-centered, and superstitious. However, patients' discussions of their decision making were not consistent with these characterizations. Furthermore, clinicians reported providing less complete information to Latina patients in their efforts to be culturally sensitive.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparing patient and clinician interviews bring into question clinicians' notion of Latino culture's role in amniocentesis decision making. Efforts to be "culturally competent," in the absence of a patient-centered approach, may unintentionally encourage stereotyping, thereby negatively affecting the quality and content of clinical care.

Routine Ultrasonography Compared With Maternal Serum Alpha-fetoprotein for Neural Tube Defect Screening

OBJECTIVE

This study was done to estimate the value of prenatal maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) screening compared with that of routine ultrasonography in the diagnosis of neural tube defects (NTDs).

METHODS

An integrated database was used retrospectively to identify cases of NTDs among 219,000 consecutive pregnancy outcomes observed during a 7-year period at 40 Kaiser Permanente facilities in Northern California. We specifically examined types of NTD and the tests used to diagnose cases.

RESULTS

We identified 189 NTD cases, 102 of which had received MSAFP screening. Results of MSAFP testing were negative in 25 (25%) of these 102 cases. Without other testing, these 25 NTD diagnoses would have been missed. These included 15 (38%) of the 40 spina bifida cases screened, 6 (67%) of the 9 encephalocele cases screened, and 4 (8%) of the 53 anencephaly cases screened. Of the 186 NTD cases diagnosed prenatally, 115 (62%) were initially detected by routine ultrasonography administered during the second trimester without knowledge of MSAFP values; 69 (37%) were diagnosed by targeted ultrasonography after MSAFP screening indicated a higher risk for NTD; and 2 (1%) were diagnosed by pathology examination after miscarriage.

CONCLUSION

Compared with MSAFP performed alone for screening, routine second-trimester ultrasonography was more likely to discover an NTD.

Down syndrome, paternal age and education: comparison of California and the Czech Republic

BACKGROUND

The association between maternal age and risk of Down syndrome has been repeatedly shown in various populations. However, the effect of paternal age and education of parents has not been frequently studied. Comparative studies on Down syndrome are also rare. This study evaluates the epidemiological characteristics of Down syndrome in two culturally and socially contrasting population settings, in California and the Czech Republic.

METHODS

The observed live birth prevalence of Down syndrome was studied among all newborns in the California counties monitored by California Birth Defects Monitoring Program from 1996 to 1997, and in the whole Czech Republic from 1994 to 1998. Logistic regression was used to analyze the data.

RESULTS

A total of 516,745 (California) and 475,834 (the Czech Republic) infants were included in the analysis. Among them, 593 and 251, respectively, had Down syndrome. The mean maternal age of children with Down syndrome was 32.1 years in California and 26.9 years in the Czech Republic. Children born to older mothers were at greater risk of Down syndrome in both populations. The association with paternal age was mostly explained by adjusting for maternal age, but remained significant in the Czech Republic. The association between maternal education and Down syndrome was much stronger in California than in the Czech Republic but parental age influences higher occurrence of Down syndrome both in California and in the Czech Republic.

CONCLUSION

The educational gradient in California might reflect selective impact of prenatal diagnosis, elective termination, and acceptance of prenatal diagnostic measures in Californian population.

Comparison of the use of amniocentesis in two countries with different policies for prenatal testing: the case of France and the United States

OBJECTIVE

To compare maternal age- and education-specific use of amniocentesis in France and the United States.

METHODS

We used two nationally representative datasets, National Perinatal Survey of 1998 in France (n = 12 816) and National Center for Health Statistics birth data for 1997 in the United States (n = 3 799 975). Analyses included binomial regression with test of interactions between country, maternal age and education.

RESULTS

Amniocentesis use was more than threefold greater in France than in the United States (Risk Ratio (RR) 3.2, 95% CI, 3.1-3.4). This was true across maternal age and education groups. Differences in use of amniocentesis were greatest, however, for women with lower levels of education and older (>/=38 years) women.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest greater use and lesser disparities in maternal age- and education-specific use of amniocentesis in France as compared to that in the United States. These differences may be due to several factors, including differences in women's cultural values and preferences. They may also represent barriers to effective access to prenatal testing, particularly for women in lower socioeconomic groups, in the United States.

The routine and the traumatic in prenatal genetic diagnosis: does clinical information inform patient decision-making?

With the increasing technical sophistication of medicine, clinicians' task of assuring patient informed consent is increasingly elusive. Taking the example of prenatal genetic testing, we examine efforts to communicate the complexities of genetic knowledge and risk calculation to patients. In this qualitative, descriptive study, we interviewed 50 clinicians and 40 patients, and observed 101 genetic counseling sessions. We found the clinicians and patients have different goals, purposes, and values regarding testing, which affect their clinical interactions. The information the clinicians provide patients reflects their clinical interest in identifying and controlling pathophysiology, while patients, in contrast, are most concerned with protecting and nurturing their pregnancy. We argue informed patient decision-making about prenatal testing options requires information that is responsive to patient interests. We recommend developing a shared decision-making approach, to facilitate the full participation of both clinicians and patients in the decision-making process.

Impact of folic acid fortification in the United States: markedly diminished high maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein values

OBJECTIVE

Folic acid fortification of breads and grains was implemented in the United States in 1998 in an attempt to reduce the incidence of neural tube defects. Outcome data from birth registries have shown a 20% drop-less than originally predicted. In this study, we ascertain if the impact of folic acid fortification is better seen at the time of midtrimester prenatal diagnosis by looking at incidence of high maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) values.

METHODS

Data regarding MSAFP levels in 61,119 patients undergoing maternal serum screening at a large commercial laboratory were categorized by multiples of the median (MoM). The data were compared between 2 groups: before mandatory supplementation in the United States in 1997 and after mandatory supplementation in 2000. High MSAFP values were further categorized as high (2.75-4.00 MoM) or very high (more than 4.00 MoM). Data were analyzed by chi(2) analysis.

RESULTS

Comparative data showed a 32% decrease of patients with MoM greater than 2.75 + (2.5% -1.7%). Further categorizations revealed similar decreases.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of folic acid fortification has produced a profound decrease in the number of high MSAFP values, reflective of a decreased incidence of neural tube defects. Our results help to validate the decision to fortify food with folic acid, which represents a highly successful public health policy for primary prevention of birth defects.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

II-2

Global registries for measuring pharmacoeconomic and quality-of-life outcomes: focus on design and data collection, analysis and interpretation

Disease registries have traditionally been vehicles for the collection of clinical data, in most instances following a large number of patients for a long time period in an observational manner, and enhancing our understanding of disease aetiology and epidemiology. However, over recent decades, the potential for additional data collection and analyses to be conducted within the framework of a registry has been recognised and utilised. This is evident by the sheer number of registries that are now referenced in the medical literature, covering a vast array of therapeutic areas and topics much more varied than incidence, prevalence and survival. The opportunity to collect QOL and pharmacoeconomic data has been utilised within the registry framework as more and more countries have increased their demands for such information for regulatory procedures, including pricing and reimbursement decisions. This increased need for information has led to a marked increase in the number of registries undertaken that are primarily sponsored by the pharmaceutical industry. Disease registries offer tremendous opportunities to realise improvements in care. The length of data collection and the large number of patients involved offer some unusual advantages for QOL and health economic analyses; however, these advantages are not yet fully exploited.

Prenatal screening for Down syndrome in England and Wales and population-based birth outcomes

OBJECTIVE

Whether the introduction of antenatal screening for Down syndrome in England and Wales with serum biochemistry or ultrasound has led to improvements in patient outcomes is unknown. The purpose of this study was to relate pregnancy outcomes to the dominant method used for prenatal Down syndrome screening.

STUDY DESIGN

For the years 1989 through 1999, England and Wales were divided into geographically defined areas where specific hospitals, health authorities, and cytogenetic laboratories provided maternity care for well-defined populations. For each year from 1989 through 1999, the dominant Down syndrome screening method that was used in each area was determined. Outcomes for area-years that used serum biochemistry or ultrasound (first or second trimester) were compared with area-years that used advanced maternal age as the dominant screening method. The percent of Down syndrome cases that were diagnosed prenatally (effectiveness) and the number of invasive prenatal tests that were performed to diagnose each Down syndrome case prenatally (efficiency) were compared.

RESULTS

There were 5,980,519 births and 335,184 referrals for prenatal karyotyping (amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling) that occurred in the area-years studied, of which 12,047 pregnancies were diagnosed as Down syndrome; 5393 cases of Down syndrome (45%) were diagnosed prenatally. Invasive testing increased from 4.4% of pregnancies in 1989 to 6.4% in 1997 and declined slightly in 1999 (5.8%). Prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome cases rose from 28% in 1989 to 53% in 1999, and the number of invasive tests that were performed to diagnose each Down syndrome case fell from 89.7 to 47.7 (P [for trend]<.0001). Areas with serum or ultrasound as the dominant screening method detected 50% more Down syndrome cases in prenatally (52% and 53% vs 36%; P<.0001) and performed fewer invasive procedures to diagnose each Down syndrome case (60.7 and 52.0 vs 88.0; P<.0001) compared with areas in which advanced maternal age screening was dominant, despite serving populations with similar mean/median maternal ages.

CONCLUSION

In clinical practice, screening programs for Down syndrome that were based on maternal serum biochemistry or ultrasound were more effective and efficient than the screening programs that used advanced maternal age alone.

Is genetic ultrasound cost-effective?

During the past 10 years, investigators have reported studies examining the potential of second-trimester genetic sonography to identify fetuses at risk for trisomy 21. The consensus among most investigators is that genetic sonography offers an alternative to universal amniocentesis in high-risk women and lowers the loss rate of normal fetuses subjected to amniocentesis because of risk factors associated with advanced maternal age or abnormal maternal-serum screening. Although there is now consensus that genetic sonography may be a useful screening tool, there has been a paucity of data regarding its cost-effectiveness. In this review, 3 studies are examined and cost-effectiveness of genetic sonography evaluated. The first study compared genetic sonography and universal amniocentesis and found that genetic sonography was cost-effective if the sensitivity is 75% or higher, resulted in a savings to the healthcare system of 9%, and decreased the loss rate of normal fetuses following amniocentesis by 87%. The second study examined the use of genetic sonography in women less than 35 years of age who underwent maternal-serum triple-marker serum screening. Women who were screen negative but who were classified as moderate risk for trisomy 21 (risk 1:191 to 1:1,000) were offered genetic sonography. Amniocentesis was offered only if the genetic sonogram was abnormal. The study demonstrated that the use of genetic sonography in this group of patients increased the detection rate of trisomy 21, was cost effective, and was a safe procedure. The third study examined the use of genetic sonography in women 35 years of age and older who declined amniocentesis following second-trimester genetic counseling. Genetic sonography was offered to this group of patients followed by amniocentesis if an abnormal ultrasound finding was present. The data were analyzed for various acceptance rates of amniocentesis by the patient when informed of the ultrasound findings. Examination of the data demonstrated this approach increased the detection rate of trisomy 21, was cost-effective, and was a safe procedure. In conclusion, genetic sonography when applied in the above clinical settings is cost-effective, results in a higher detection rate of trisomy 21, and is safe procedure.

Combined first-trimester versus second-trimester serum screening for Down syndrome: a cost analysis

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of combined first-trimester screening for fetal Down syndrome with second-trimester maternal serum triple screening.

STUDY DESIGN

A first-trimester screening approach that used nuchal translucency measurement and maternal serum screening was evaluated against second-trimester maternal serum triple screening in a hypothetic population. Screening sensitivities and screen-positive rates were 91% and 5% for the first-trimester approach and 70% and 7.5% for the second-trimester approach, respectively. The costs of fetal Down syndrome, live-born Down syndrome cost, and total costs (screening plus live-born costs) were calculated for each screening program.

RESULTS

First-trimester screening was associated with lower screening and live-born Down syndrome costs versus second-trimester serum screening. Total Down syndrome screening costs were 29.1% lower with first-trimester screening.

CONCLUSION

In this hypothetic model, combined first-trimester screening for fetal Down syndrome was more cost-effective than universal second-trimester triple serum screening.

Factors affecting the decision regarding amniocentesis in women at genetic risk because of age 35 years or older

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects of anamnestic factors and sonographic findings on the patient's decision regarding amniocentesis in a cohort of women at genetic risk because of advanced age.

METHODS

All women 35 years of age or older registered for prenatal care between January 1990 and December 1998 were asked about their attitude towards genetic amniocentesis during the course of individual genetic counseling and once again after ultrasound examination inclusive of markers of aneuploidies (nuchal fold thickness greater than 6 mm, renal pyelectasis, choroid plexus cysts, and hyperechogenic bowel). Their attitudes towards genetic amniocentesis before and after ultrasound examination were compared using chi-square, Fisher's exact test, Mann-Whitney U-test, and logistic regression analysis, with a two-tailed p < 0.05 or an odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) not inclusive of the unity considered significant.

RESULTS

Among the 1486 women in the cohort, 1368 (97%) expressed an opinion towards genetic testing at the time of counseling: 501 (37%) were in favor and 867 (63%) were against having the procedure. After ultrasonographic examination, 33% (446/1368) of women opted for amniocentesis, 36% (146/402) after abnormal findings and 31% (300/966) after normal ultrasound findings. Significantly more women with abnormal than normal ultrasound findings opted for diagnostic testing in both groups. Overall, only 8% (115/1368) of women changed their attitude towards diagnostic testing after ultrasonographic examination. Normal sonographic findings were three times more likely to change the attitude of women initially interested in amniocentesis than abnormal sonographic findings did in women a priori not interested in the procedure (20% versus 7%, p < 0.001, OR = 3.2, 95% CI 1.8; 5.8).

CONCLUSIONS

In a cohort of women at genetic risk because of advanced age, the key determinant of the choice regarding genetic amniocentesis is the a priori opinion of the woman towards the procedure, which was expressed by 93% of women. Ultrasonography plays a secondary role in changing or confirming women's attitude towards invasive diagnostic testing. Normal sonographic findings affect women's decisions more powerfully than abnormal sonographic findings, suggesting that ultrasonography has an important reassuring function for the woman.