Ecological half-time and effective dose from chernobyl debris and from nuclear weapons fallout of 137Cs as measured in different Swedish populations

LARCalc, a tool to estimate sex- and age-specific lifetime attributable risk in populations after nuclear power plant fallout

A tool called LARCalc, for calculating the radiological consequences of accidental large scale nuclear power plant releases based on estimates of 137Cs ground deposition, is presented. LARCalc is based on a previously developed models that has been further developed and packaged into an easy-to-use decision support tool for training of decision makers. The software visualises the radiological impact of accidental nuclear power plant releases and the effects of various protective measures. It is thus intended as a rapid alternative for planning protective measures in emergency preparedness management. The tool predicts projected cumulative effective dose, projected lifetime attributable cancer risk, and residual dose for some default accidental release scenarios. Furthermore, it can predict the residual dose and avertable cumulative lifetime attributable risk (LAR) resulting from various protective measures such as evacuation and decontamination. It can also be used to predict the avertable collective dose and the increase in cancer incidence within the specified population. This study presents the theoretical models and updates to the previous models, and examples of different nuclear fallout scenarios and subsequent protective actions to illustrate the potential use of LARCalc.

Cancer incidence in a male adult population in relation to estimated protracted colon dose - A nested case control study in Northern Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident

INTRODUCTION

Uncertainty in the dose-response of low dose radiation raised concern of an increased cancer incidence in Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A closed cohort was created of all males ≥18 years of age living in the Northern Sweden in 1986. In total 826,400 individuals were enrolled including 40,874 hunters. A nested case-control design was used with five controls randomly selected for each cancer case matched on year of diagnosis and year of birth. Individual absorbed colon dose was calculated 1986 to 2015. Allowing for a 5-year latency period Hazard Ratios (HR) per mGy with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) were calculated in a conditional logistic regression adjusted by rural/non-rural living, length of education and pre-Chernobyl cancer incidence 1980 to 1985. A total of 127,109 cancer cases occurred from 1 January 1991 to 31 December 2015. Cancer was classified in: 1) Organ-specific (stomach, colon, liver, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, thyroid and leukaemia), 2) Other and 3) Not previously associated to ionizing radiation.

RESULTS

The average colon dose in cases was 1.77 mGy compared to controls 1.73 mGy. Hunters average colon dose was 2.32 mGy. Organ-specific cancers showed the highest HR per mGy both in the full cohort, adj HR 1.019 (1.014-1.024) and the hunter subcohort, adj HR 1.014 (1.001-1.027) during follow-up 1991 to 2015. Other cancer and Not previously associated with ionizing radiation showed lower HR per mGy. Therefore, the adj HR per mGy for Total cancer, 1.013 (1.009-1.017) was explained by Organ-specific cancer. Increased adj HR per mGy was seen in stomach, colon and prostate cancer, respectively in the full cohort and lung cancer in hunters.

CONCLUSIONS

Some cancer sites previously associated with ionizing radiation showed a positive adjusted HR per mGy both in the full cohort and in the hunter subcohort.

Exposure of German hunters and their family members to the radioactive nuclide 137Cs due to their eating habits

The radioactive nuclide ¹³⁷Cs that was released during the Chernobyl accident in 1986 is still present in the environment of wide parts of Middle Europe. It causes internal radiation exposure of people who incorporate this radionuclide when eating contaminated food, in particular boar meat and certain kinds of wild mushrooms. This study investigates the exposure of German hunters and their family members, which are supposed to consume these kinds of food more frequently than the general population. For this purpose, the body activity of ¹³⁷Cs was measured in 58 hunters and their family members mostly from Southern Germany and it was compared with body activities from 1729 measurements of 251 members of the general population. Significantly higher ¹³⁷Cs body activities were found in the hunters and their family members compared to the references after matching both groups for sociodemographic factors and the time of the measurement (factor of 2.4 between the geometric means, p-value ≪ 0.001). Within the hunters and their family members, an adjusted exponential regression showed significant associations of the activity and of mushroom picking (factor 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.5-4.6) and of the frequency of having boar meat as part of the diet (factor 1.4 per meal per week, 95% confidence interval 1.1-1.8). No significant association was found for the ¹³⁷Cs surface contamination at the hunting grounds. Within families, mostly similar results were found in terms of activity concentrations. For the hunter with the highest measured activity (1050 Bq), an annual contribution to the effective dose of 35 μSv was calculated, showing that also in hunters and their family members ¹³⁷Cs is expected to cause only small contributions to the total effective dose from environmental exposure.

Increased cancer risk in male hunters compared to the general male population in Northern Sweden after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident?

Male hunters in Swedish counties with high fallout of ¹³⁷Cs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident have higher radiation exposure due to higher consumption of game compared with the general population.

Methods

Cancer incidence in Sweden was studied in 9 counties with different ¹³⁷Cs fallout after the Chernobyl NPP accident in 1986. In total, 9,267 cancer cases occurred in hunters and 138,909 cancer cases in non-hunters to 31 December 2015. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using unexposed hunters, or non-hunters, as reference to study internal radiation exposure or hunter life style, respectively.

Results

Directly age standardized total cancer incidence showed an increasing trend in non-hunters. For hunters, the total cancer incidence was significantly lower up to 2001 when the total cancer incidence crossed over the weaker non-hunter trend and remained higher for the following 15 years. IRRs for total cancer in hunters versus non-hunters for each county did not show any clear exposure response pattern. IRRs for hunters versus non-hunters were higher regardless of rural/non-rural status with slightly higher risk estimates for the rural settings. The IRR for hunters was 1.06 (95% CI 1.04-1.08) 1986-2015, representing an excess of 531 cancer cases in hunters.

Conclusion

An increased total incidence of cancer was identified for male hunters compared with male non-hunters. No obvious association between cancer and ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl NPP accident could be identified, although the exposure classification was too crude to exclude such an association.

Averting cumulative lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer by decontamination of residential areas affected by a large-scale nuclear power plant fallout: time aspects of radiological benefits for newborns and adults

The averted cumulative lifetime attributable risk (LAR), the residual dose and highest ground deposition of ¹³⁷Cs complying with a reference dose level of 20 mSv yr^-1 to an individual returning after one year to an area contaminated by unfiltered releases of fission products from a nuclear power plant (NPP) were evaluated by applying an existing exposure model designed to compute age- and gender-dependent time-integrated LAR. The model was applied to four types of nuclear fallout scenarios, partly based on data from the Chernobyl and Fukushima releases and from theoretical source terms from Swedish NPPs. For rapid decontamination measures that achieve a 50% relative reduction in external dose rate within 1 year, compliance with the reference level 20 mSv yr^-1 can be attained for an initial ¹³⁷Cs ground deposition of up to 2 MBq m^-2 with relaxed food restrictions. This compliance can be attained at even higher ground deposition (up to 4.5 MBq m^-2) if using the strict food restrictions employed in Japan after 2011. Considering longer than 1 year return times it was also found that the benefit of implementing decontamination decreases rapidly with time (2-3 years half-time), especially if the fallout has a high initial ¹³⁴Cs to ¹³⁷Cs activity ratio and if the ecological half-time of the external dose rate is short (<5 years). Depending on fallout scenario the averted cumulative LAR for newborn girls by decontamination that is achieved after 5 years is only between 6% and 11% of that obtained by evacuation alone during the same time, indicating a rather limited radiological benefit of decontamination if delayed more than a few years. We conclude that decision makers and emergency response planners need to consider that protracted decontamination measures may have limited radiological benefit compared with evacuation in terms of averted future cancer cases, albeit it may have other societal benefits.

In vivo measurement of pre-operational spallation source workers: baseline body burden levels and detection limits of relevant gamma emitters using high-resolution gamma spectrometry

As a measure to prepare for long-term internal dose monitoring of workers at the European Spallation Source (ESS) in Lund, Sweden, operated by the European Research Infrastructure Consortium (ERIC), as well as to enhance emergency preparedness against accidental releases, a series of in vivo measurements were conducted using a high-resolution HPGe detector with a 123% relative efficiency (1.332 MeV). This study describes the whole-body counting set-up, calibration procedure, and subsequent validation measurements using conventional NaI(Tl)-scanning-bed geometry on a selection of workers from the ESS. Detection limits for the relevant gamma emitters ⁷Be, ¹⁷²Hf, and ¹⁸²Ta were determined to be 65 Bq, 130 Bq, and 22 Bq, respectively, using a 2400 s acquisition time. The baseline measurements suggest that care must be taken to ensure that the fluctuations in the presence of radon daughters ²¹⁴Bi and ²¹⁴Pb are minimised by, for example, ensuring a minimum air exchange between the measuring room and the ambient air, and by demanding that the measured subjects change clothes and shower before measurement. Furthermore, in a monitoring program for internal doses to spallation source workers, the presence of radionuclides originating from non-work-related sources (such as ²²⁶Ra from private water wells or ¹³⁷Cs from intakes of Chernobyl contaminated foodstuffs), or radionuclides from previous work history (such as ⁶⁰Co within the nuclear power industry), must be considered.

Introduction of a method to calculate cumulative age- and gender-specific lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of cancer in populations after a large-scale nuclear power plant accident

The effect of age and gender in risk estimates related to long-term residence in areas contaminated by nuclear power plant fallout was evaluated by applying the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) concept to an existing exposure model that was previously used for cumulative effective dose estimates. In this study, we investigated the influence of age distribution on the number of cancer cases by applying five different age distributions from nuclear power-producing countries (India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States), and Egypt because of intentions to develop nuclear power. The model was also used to estimate the effective dose and gender-specific LAR as a function of time after fallout for the offspring of the population living in 137Cs fallout areas. The principal findings of this study are that the LAR of cancer incidence (excluding non-fatal skin cancers) over 70 y is about 4.5 times higher for newborn females (5.4% per MBq m-2 of initial 137Cs ground deposition) than the corresponding values for 30 y old women (1.2% per MBq m-2 137Cs deposition). The cumulative LAR for newborn males is more than 3 times higher (3.2% versus 1.0% per MBq m-2 137Cs deposition). The model predicts a generally higher LAR for women until 50 y of age, after which the gender difference converges. Furthermore, the detriment for newborns in the fallout areas initially decreases rapidly (about threefold during the first decade) and then decreases gradually with an approximate half-time of 10-12 y after the first decade. The age distribution of the exposed cohort has a decisive impact on the average risk estimates, and in our model, these are up to about 65% higher in countries with high birth rates compared to low birth rates. This trend implies larger average lifetime attributable risks in countries with a highly proportional younger population. In conclusion, the large dispersion (up to a factor of 4 between newborns and 30 y olds) in the lifetime detriment per unit ground deposition of 137Cs over gender and age in connection with accidental nuclear releases justifies the effort in developing risk models that account for the higher radiation sensitivity in younger populations.

Modelling the effective dose to a population from fallout after a nuclear power plant accident-A scenario-based study with mitigating actions

The radiological consequences of a nuclear power plant (NPP) accident, resulting in the release of radionuclides to the environment, will depend largely on the mitigating actions instigated shortly after the accident. It is therefore important to make predictions of the radiation dose to the affected population, from external as well as internal exposure, soon after an accident, despite the fact that data are scarce. The aim of this study was to develop a model for the prediction of the cumulative effective dose up to 84 years of age based on the ground deposition of 137Cs that is determined soon after fallout. The model accounts for different assumptions regarding external and internal dose contributions, and the model parameters in this study were chosen to reflect various mitigating actions. Furthermore, the relative importance of these parameters was determined by sensitivity analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this model is unique as it allows quantification of both the external and the internal effective dose using only a fallout map of 137Cs after a nuclear power plant accident. The cumulative effective dose over a period of 50 years following the accident per unit 137Cs deposited was found to range from 0.14 mSv/kBq m-2 to 1.5 mSv/kBq m-2, depending on the mitigating actions undertaken. According to the sensitivity analysis, the most important parameters governing the cumulative effective dose to various adult populations during 50 years after the fallout appear to be: the correlation factor between the local areal deposition of 137Cs and the maximum initial ambient dose rate; the maximum transfer from regional average fallout on the ground to body burden; the local areal deposition of 137Cs; and the regional average 137Cs deposition. Therefore, it is important that mapping of local 137Cs deposition is carried out immediately after fallout from a nuclear power plant accident, followed by calculations of radiation doses for different scenarios using well-known parameters, in order to identify the most efficient mitigation strategies. Given this 137Cs mapping, we believe our model is a valuable tool for long-term radiological assessment in the early phase after NPP accidents.

Estimated lifetime effective dose to hunters and their families in the three most contaminated counties in Sweden after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986 - A pilot study

Hunters and their families were one of the most exposed subpopulations in Sweden after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. In this pilot study we used existing registries and whole-body measurements to develop algorithms to calculate lifetime effective doses and collective doses to some hunters in Sweden. Ten hunters and their family members were randomly selected from each of the three most contaminated counties in Sweden (Västernorrland, Uppsala, Gävleborg) using the register for hunting weapons from the Police Authority in 1985. Hence, this design can be regarded as a closed cohort only including hunters and their family members living in these three counties at the time of the accident. Statistics Sweden matched these individuals (n = 85) with their dwelling coordinates onto the digital map produced by the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority after aerial measurements of ¹³⁷Cs (kBq m^-2). Internal effective doses were estimated using aggregated transfer factors from ground deposition to in-vivo body concentration for ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs in hunters (Bq kg^-1). External effective doses were also calculated on the dwelling coordinate for ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs and short-lived nuclides in these three counties. Annual effective doses for external and internal doses were then cumulated up to a life expectancy of 80 years for men and 84 years for women, respectively. The total lifetime effective doses to the members of the hunter families in this cohort were on average 8.3 mSv in Västernorrland, 4.7 mSv in Uppsala and 4.1 mSv in Gävleborg. The effective dose to men were about 40% higher than in women. In all counties the internal dose was about 75% of the total lifetime effective dose. The collective dose for all hunters with family members, in total about 44,000 individuals, in these three counties could be approximated at about 256 manSv. This study shows it is possible to use register data to develop algorithms for calculating lifetime effective dose commitments for hunters with relatively accuracy.

Estimated association between dwelling soil contamination and internal radiation contamination levels after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan

OBJECTIVES

Measurement of soil contamination levels has been considered a feasible method for dose estimation of internal radiation exposure following the Chernobyl disaster by means of aggregate transfer factors; however, it is still unclear whether the estimation of internal contamination based on soil contamination levels is universally valid or incident specific.

METHODS

To address this issue, we evaluated relationships between in vivo and soil cesium-137 (Cs-137) contamination using data on internal contamination levels among Minamisoma (10-40 km north from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant), Fukushima residents 2-3 years following the disaster, and constructed three models for statistical analysis based on continuous and categorical (equal intervals and quantiles) soil contamination levels.

RESULTS

A total of 7987 people with a mean age of 55.4 years underwent screening of in vivo Cs-137 whole-body counting. A statistically significant association was noted between internal and continuous Cs-137 soil contamination levels (model 1, p value <0.001), although the association was slight (relative risk (RR): 1.03 per 10 kBq/m(2) increase in soil contamination). Analysis of categorical soil contamination levels showed statistical (but not clinical) significance only in relatively higher soil contamination levels (model 2: Cs-137 levels above 100 kBq/m(2) compared to those <25 kBq/m(2), RR=1.75, p value <0.01; model 3: levels above 63 kBq/m(2) compared to those <11 kBq/m(2), RR=1.45, p value <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Low levels of internal and soil contamination were not associated, and only loose/small associations were observed in areas with slightly higher levels of soil contamination in Fukushima, representing a clear difference from the strong associations found in post-disaster Chernobyl. These results indicate that soil contamination levels generally do not contribute to the internal contamination of residents in Fukushima; thus, individual measurements are essential for the precise evaluation of chronic internal radiation contamination.

Fallout 137Cs in reindeer herders in Arctic Norway

Reindeer herders in the Arctic were among the most heavily exposed populations to the global fallout from nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s and 1960s, due to high transfer of radionuclides in the lichens-reindeer-human food chain. Annual studies of (137)Cs in reindeer herders in Kautokeino, Norway, were initiated in 1965 to monitor radiation doses and follow environmental (137)Cs behavior. The (137)Cs concentrations declined from the peak in 1965 with effective half-times of 6-8 years, only interrupted by a temporary doubling in levels from 1986 to 1987 due to the Chernobyl fallout. During the period of 1950-2010 an average herder received an integrated effective dose from incorporated (137)Cs of about 18 mSv. This dose represents an insignificant increase in the risk for developing cancer. Health studies even show a significantly lower cancer incidence among Sámis and reindeer herders in northern Norway compared to other populations in the same area.

Determination of dose rate from Chernobyl-derived radiocaesium in Estonian soil

The deposition and vertical depth distribution of 134Cs and 137Cs in the natural undisturbed soil profiles down to 20-25 cm were studied at locations in the North Eastern Estonia, which were most strongly affected by the Chernobyl fallout in 1986. The total depositions were estimated based on summing the sampled and measured activities of 134Cs and 137Cs in all sections of soil profiles. The Chernobyl 137Cs deposition values varied considerably from site to site and the range was from 3.9 kBq m(-2) to 50.2 kBq m(-2), with the average of 22.8 kBq m(-2) for the region (reference data May 1, 1986). The ratio of total activities, A(134Cs)/A(137Cs), varied in the range from 0.47 to 0.55. Using a compartment model and the observed data on the 134Cs and 137Cs activity concentrations (Bq m(-2)) in four compartments, 0-1 cm, 1-5 cm, 5-15 cm and 15-30 cm, of soil collected in 1991-2003, the approximate residence half-times of radiocaesium in soil were determined. The latter increased from 3.7 y in the top-most compartment to 8.6 y and 36.4 y in the deeper compartments, respectively. The time dependence of the external gamma-dose rate at the height of 1 m above a flat ground area arising from the deposited and migrating radiocaesium was calculated using the modeled data on the 134Cs and 137Cs activity in soil compartments. Considering the total depositions of radiocaesium in soil from the Chernobyl 1986 accident, the 50 year effective doses caused by external gamma exposure varied in the range from 0.13 mSv to 1.74 mSv, with the mean of 0.79 mSv in the region.

Effective half-lives of 134Cs and 137Cs in reindeer meat and in reindeer herders in Finland after the Chernobyl accident and the ensuing effective radiation doses to humans

Monitoring of 137Cs in reindeer herders and in reindeer meat in Finnish Lapland began in the early 1960s and has continued until today. The monitoring of 137Cs in reindeer herders and in reindeer meat in the Halla area began after the Chernobyl accident. In this study, reindeer herders together with reindeer meat samples were monitored for gamma-emitting radionuclides from two separate areas in the Finnish reindeer management area, Northern Finland and the Halla area. The effective half-lives determined for 137Cs in reindeer meat were from 3.0 ± 1.7 to 5.1 ± 0.5 y. For 134Cs, the observed effective half-lives in reindeer meat were from 1.3 ± 0.2 to 1.5 ± 0.1 y. The effective half-lives among male and female reindeer herders in Northern Finland were 5.5 ± 1.3 and 4.4 ± 0.9 y, respectively, for the body-burden of 137Cs. In the Halla reindeer herding cooperative, located to the south of Finnish Lapland in the province of Kuusamo, the effective half-lives in the reindeer herders were shorter, about 1-2 y. The 134Cs × 137Cs-1 ratios decreased more rapidly in reindeer meat and also in humans in the Halla area than in Northern Finland. This implies faster removal of Chernobyl-derived cesium from the reindeer-man food chain in the Halla area. The contribution of Chernobyl fallout (percent) in reindeer meat was 70% and 80% in the Paistunturi and Ivalo cooperatives, respectively, and 50% and 80% in the western and eastern part of Halla cooperative, respectively. In humans, the contribution of Chernobyl fallout to 137Cs in whole-body content was 60% in Northern Finland and 80% in the Halla area. The mean committed effective doses of Cs for reindeer herders in Finnish Lapland decreased from 0.36 mSv y-1 in 1987 to 0.053 mSv y-1 in 2005.

Modelling radiocaesium transfer and long-term changes in reindeer

A dynamic model on (137)Cs in reindeer is presented, taking into consideration short- and long-term mechanisms, including the effect of ground deposition, transfer to vegetation, reindeer diet, feed intake, absorption and depletion of radiocaesium in the reindeer body. The model was optimised to fit measured activity concentrations in Swedish reindeer after the Chernobyl fallout. For comparison, regression analyses were made and aggregated transfer factors and effective ecological half-lives were estimated. The fit of the simulated model to observed activity concentrations was slightly better than the fit obtained by linear regressions. Improved knowledge about radiocaesium in vegetation would make the model more accurate for predictive purposes. Presently, the use of Tag and T(eff) is probably better for predictions, provided that their temporal and geographical limitations are taken into consideration. The dynamic model describes mechanisms better and may explain how changes in the system influence on activity concentrations of radiocaesium in the animal.