Physician Judgment and Circulating Biomarkers Predict 28-Day Mortality in Emergency Department Patients

Acute internal medicine physicians' clinical intuition based on acute care telephone referral: A prospective study

INTRODUCTION

In the Netherlands, most emergency department (ED) patients are referred by a general practitioner (GP) or a hospital specialist. Early risk stratification during telephone referral could allow the physician to assess the severity of the patients' illness in the prehospital setting. We aim to assess the discriminatory value of the acute internal medicine (AIM) physicians' clinical intuition based on telephone referral of ED patients to predict short-term adverse outcomes, and to investigate on which information their predictions are based.

METHODS

In this prospective study, we included adult ED patients who were referred for internal medicine by a GP or a hospital specialist. Primary outcomes were hospital admission and triage category according to the Manchester Triage System (MTS). Secondary outcome was 31-day mortality. The discriminatory performance of the clinical intuition was assessed using an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). To identify which information is important to predict adverse outcomes, we performed univariate regression analysis. Agreement between predicted and observed MTS triage category was assessed using intraclass and Spearman's correlation.

RESULTS

We included 333 patients, of whom 172 (51.7%) were referred by a GP, 146 (43.8%) by a hospital specialist, and 12 (3.6%) by another health professional. The AIM physician's clinical intuition showed good discriminatory performance regarding hospital admission (AUC 0.72, 95% CI: 0.66-0.78) and 31-day mortality (AUC 0.73, 95% CI: 0.64-0.81). Univariate regression analysis showed that age ≥65 years and a sense of alarm were significant predictors. The predicted and observed triage category were similar in 45.2%, but in 92.5% the prediction did not deviate by more than one category. Intraclass and Spearman's correlation showed fair agreement between predicted and observed triage category (ICC 0.48, Spearman's 0.29).

CONCLUSION

Clinical intuition based on relevant information during a telephone referral can be used to accurately predict short-term outcomes, allowing for early risk stratification in the prehospital setting and managing ED patient flow more effectively.

Comparing In-Hospital Mortality Prediction by Senior Emergency Resident's Judgment and Prognostic Models in the Emergency Department

Background

A comparison of emergency residents' judgments and two derivatives of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), namely, the mSOFA and the qSOFA, was conducted to determine the accuracy of predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED).

Methods

A prospective cohort research was performed on patients over 18 years of age presented to the ED. We used logistic regression to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality by using qSOFA, mSOFA, and residents' judgment scores. We compared the accuracy of prognostic models and residents' judgment in terms of the overall accuracy of the predicted probabilities (Brier score), discrimination (area under the ROC curve), and calibration (calibration graph). Analyses were carried out using R software version R-4.2.0.

Results

In the study, 2,205 patients with median age of 64 (IQR: 50-77) years were included. There were no significant differences between the qSOFA (AUC 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) and physician's judgment (AUC 0.68; 0.65-0.71). Despite this, the discrimination of mSOFA (AUC 0.74; 0.71-0.77) was significantly higher than that of the qSOFA and residents' judgments. Additionally, the AUC-PR of mSOFA, qSOFA, and emergency resident's judgments was 0.45 (0.43-0.47), 0.38 (0.36-0.40), and 0.35 (0.33-0.37), respectively. The mSOFA appears stronger in terms of overall performance: 0.13 vs. 0.14 and 0.15. All three models showed good calibration.

Conclusion

The performance of emergency residents' judgment and the qSOFA was the same in predicting in-hospital mortality. However, the mSOFA predicted better-calibrated mortality risk. Large-scale studies should be conducted to determine the utility of these models.

Comparing Mortality Prediction by Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment with Emergency Physician Judgment

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) was proposed to identify infected patients at risk for mortality, an indication of sepsis, in nonintensive care unit settings. This study tests whether qSOFA improves physician prediction of mortality among infected Emergency Department (ED) patients.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective, observational study of potentially septic ED patients, conducted between two urban, academic medical centers, from July 2016 to December 2017. We enrolled ED patients with two or more systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria and severe sepsis qualifying organ dysfunction, systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg, or lactate ≥ 4.0 mmol/L. Infectious etiology was adjudicated retrospectively by paired physician review. We excluded noninfected patients. Treating ED physicians submitted judgment for in-hospital mortality (0%-100%) at hospital admission, and qSOFA was calculated retrospectively using ED data. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality within 28 days. We used logistic regression to predict mortality using physician judgment, qSOFA, and combined physician judgment and qSOFA. To assess differences between models, 95% confidence intervals for area under the curve (AUC) were derived by bootstrapping with 1,000 iterations.

RESULTS

Of 405 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 195 (48.1%) were determined to have infection and analyzed. Of analyzed patients, 16 (8.2%) suffered in-hospital mortality within 28 days. Analyzed patients had a mean age of 58.3 (SD 16.5) years and 78 (40%) were female. qSOFA alone (AUC 0.63; 95% CI: 0.53-0.73) was not superior to unstructured physician judgment (AUC 0.80; 0.70-0.89) when predicting 28-day in-hospital mortality with mean AUC difference 0.17 (0.07-0.28) across bootstrapped datasets. Combining qSOFA with physician judgment (AUC 0.79; 0.69-0.89) did not improve performance compared with physician judgment alone.

CONCLUSION

When predicting 28-day in-hospital mortality among infected ED patients, qSOFA did not outperform or improve physician judgment.

Predicting mortality in adult patients with sepsis in the emergency department by using combinations of biomarkers and clinical scoring systems: a systematic review

Background

Sepsis can be detected in an early stage in the emergency department (ED) by biomarkers and clinical scoring systems. A combination of multiple biomarkers or biomarker with clinical scoring system might result in a higher predictive value on mortality. The goal of this systematic review is to evaluate the available literature on combinations of biomarkers and clinical scoring systems on 1-month mortality in patients with sepsis in the ED.

Methods

We performed a systematic search using MEDLINE, EMBASE and Google Scholar. Articles were included if they evaluated at least one biomarker combined with another biomarker or clinical scoring system and reported the prognostic accuracy on 28 or 30 day mortality by area under the curve (AUC) in patients with sepsis. We did not define biomarker cut-off values in advance.

Results

We included 18 articles in which a total of 35 combinations of biomarkers and clinical scoring systems were studied, of which 33 unique combinations. In total, seven different clinical scoring systems and 21 different biomarkers were investigated. The combination of procalcitonin (PCT), lactate, interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score-2 (SAPS-2) resulted in the highest AUC on 1-month mortality.

Conclusion

The studies we found in this systematic review were too heterogeneous to conclude that a certain combination it should be used in the ED to predict 1-month mortality in patients with sepsis. Future studies should focus on clinical scoring systems which require a limited amount of clinical parameters, such as the qSOFA score in combination with a biomarker that is already routinely available in the ED.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-021-00461-z.

Can capillary lactate improve early warning scores in emergency department? An observational, prospective, multicentre study

AIMS

To determine the prognostic usefulness of the National Early Warning Score-2 (NEWS2) and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores, in isolation and combined with capillary lactate (CL), using the new NEWS2-L and qSOFA-L scores to predict the 30-day mortality risk.

METHODS

Prospective, multicentre and observational study in patients across four EDs. We collected sets of vital signs and CL and subsequently calculated NEWS2, qSOFA, NEWS2-L and qSOFA-L scores when patients arrived at the ED. The main outcome measure was all-cause mortality 30 days from the index event.

RESULTS

A total of 941 patients were included. Thirty-six patients (3.8%) died within 30 days of the index event. A high CL level has not been linked to a higher mortality. The NEWS2 presented AUROC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.62-0.81), qSOFA of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.56-0.77) (P < .001 in both cases) and CL 0.55 (95% CI: 0.42-0.65; P = .229) to predict 30-day mortality. The addition of CL to the scores analysed does not improve the results of the scores used in isolation.

CONCLUSION

NEWS2 and qSOFA scores are a very useful tool for assessing the status of patients who come to the ED in general for all types of patients in triage categories II and III and for detecting the 30-day mortality risk. CL determined systematically in the ED does not seem to provide information on the prognosis of the patients.

Hypernatremia and moderate-to-severe hyponatremia are independent predictors of mortality in septic patients at emergency department presentation: A sub-group analysis of the need-speed trial

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Early risk stratification of septic patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) is challenging. The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic role of plasmatic sodium level (_PNa⁺) derangements at ED presentation in septic patients.

METHODS

According to _PNa⁺ at ED presentation patients were divided in eunatremic (136-145 mEq/L), hypernatremic (>145 mEq/L) and hyponatremic (<136 mEq/L). Hyponatremic patients were subsequently divided in mild (130-135 mEq/L), moderate (125-129 mEq/L) and severe (<125 mEq/L). 7 and 30-day mortality was evaluated according to _PNa⁺ derangements and the degree of hyponatremia. The same analysis was then performed only in respiratory tract infection-related (RTI-r) sepsis patients.

RESULTS

879 septic patients were included in this analysis, 40.3% had hyponatremia, 5.7% hypernatremia. Hypernatremia showed higher mortality rates at both endpoints compared to eunatremia and hyponatremia (p<0.0001 for both). Eunatremia and mild hyponatremia were compared vs. moderate-to-severe hyponatremia showing a significant difference in terms of 7 and 30-day survival (p = 0.004 and p = 0.007, respectively). The Cox proportional model identified as independent predictors of 7 and 30-day mortality moderate-to-severe hyponatremia (HR 4.89[2.38-10.03] and 1.79[1.07-3.01], respectively) and hypernatremia (HR 3.52[1.58-7.82] and 2.14[1.17-3.92], respectively). The same analysis was performed in patients with respiratory tract infection-related sepsis (n = 549), with similar results.

CONCLUSION

Both hypernatremia and moderate-to-severe hyponatremia at ED presentation independently predict mortality in septic patients, allowing early risk stratification and suggesting more aggressive therapeutic strategies.

Iodine Redistribution During Trauma, Sepsis, and Hibernation: An Evolutionarily Conserved Response to Severe Stress

OBJECTIVE

We performed these studies to learn how iodine in the form of free iodide behaves during stress.

DESIGN

Prospective observational trial using samples obtained from human trauma patients and retrospective observational study using remnant samples from human sepsis patients and arctic ground squirrels. Preclinical interventional study using hind-limb ischemia and reperfusion injury in mice.

SETTING

Level I trauma center emergency room and ICU and animal research laboratories.

SUBJECTS

Adult human sepsis and trauma patients, wild-caught adult arctic ground squirrels, and sexually mature laboratory mice.

INTERVENTIONS

Ischemia and reperfusion injury was induced in mice by temporary application of tourniquet to one hind-limb. Iodide was administered IV just prior to reperfusion.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Free iodide was measured using ion chromatography. Relative to iodide in plasma from normal donors, iodide was increased 17-fold in plasma from trauma patients and 26-fold in plasma from sepsis patients. In arctic ground squirrels, iodide increases over three-fold during hibernation. And during ischemia/reperfusion injury in mice, iodide accumulates in ischemic tissue and reduces both local and systemic tissue damage.

CONCLUSIONS

Iodide redistributes during stress and improves outcome after injury. Essential functions of iodide may have contributed to its evolutionary selection and be useful as a therapeutic intervention for human patients.

Prognostic performance of endothelial biomarkers to early predict clinical deterioration of patients with suspected bacterial infection and sepsis admitted to the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of endothelial biomarkers to early predict clinical deterioration of patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) with a suspected sepsis. This was a prospective, multicentre, international study conducted in EDs. Adult patients with suspected acute bacterial infection and sepsis were enrolled but only those with confirmed infection were analysed. The kinetics of biomarkers and organ dysfunction were collected at T0, T6 and T24 hours after ED admission to assess prognostic performances of sVEGFR2, suPAR and procalcitonin (PCT). The primary outcome was the deterioration within 72 h and was defined as a composite of relevant outcomes such as death, intensive care unit admission and/or SOFA score increase validated by an independent adjudication committee.

RESULTS

After adjudication of 602 patients, 462 were analysed including 124 who deteriorated (27%). On admission, those who deteriorated were significantly older (73 [60-82] vs 63 [45-78] y-o, p < 0.001) and presented significantly higher SOFA scores (2.15 ± 1.61 vs 1.56 ± 1.40, p = 0.003). At T0, sVEGFR2 (5794 [5026-6788] vs 6681 [5516-8059], p < 0.0001), suPAR (6.04 [4.42-8.85] vs 4.68 [3.50-6.43], p < 0.0001) and PCT (7.8 ± 25.0 vs 5.4 ± 17.9 ng/mL, p = 0.001) were associated with clinical deterioration. In multivariate analysis, low sVEGFR2 expression and high suPAR and PCT levels were significantly associated with early deterioration, independently of confounding parameters (sVEGFR2, OR = 1.53 [1.07-2.23], p < 0.001; suPAR, OR = 1.57 [1.21-2.07], p = 0.003; PCT, OR = 1.10 [1.04-1.17], p = 0.0019). Combination of sVEGFR2 and suPAR had the best prognostic performance (AUC = 0.7 [0.65-0.75]) compared to clinical or biological variables.

CONCLUSIONS

sVEGFR2, either alone or combined with suPAR, seems of interest to predict deterioration of patients with suspected bacterial acute infection upon ED admission and could help front-line physicians in the triage process.