Broadening the Scope of Healthcare Operations: Expanding Capacity Strain Hospital-Wide

Measures and Impact of Caseload Surge During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 pandemic surges strained hospitals globally. We performed a systematic review to examine measures of pandemic caseload surge and its impact on mortality of hospitalized patients.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science.

STUDY SELECTION

English-language studies published between December 1, 2019, and November 22, 2023, which reported the association between pandemic "surge"-related measures and mortality in hospitalized patients.

DATA EXTRACTION

Three authors independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed individual study risk of bias. We assessed measures of surge qualitatively across included studies. Given multidomain heterogeneity, we semiquantitatively aggregated surge-mortality associations.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of 17,831 citations, we included 39 studies, 17 of which specifically described surge effects in ICU settings. The majority of studies were from high-income countries ( n = 35 studies) and included patients with COVID-19 ( n = 31). There were 37 different surge metrics which were mapped into four broad themes, incorporating caseloads either directly as unadjusted counts ( n = 11), nested in occupancy ( n = 14), including additional factors (e.g., resource needs, speed of occupancy; n = 10), or using indirect proxies (e.g., altered staffing ratios, alternative care settings; n = 4). Notwithstanding metric heterogeneity, 32 of 39 studies (82%) reported detrimental adjusted odds/hazard ratio for caseload surge-mortality outcomes, reporting point estimates of up to four-fold increased risk of mortality. This signal persisted among study subgroups categorized by publication year, patient types, clinical settings, and country income status.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic caseload surge was associated with lower survival across most studies regardless of jurisdiction, timing, and population. Markedly variable surge strain measures precluded meta-analysis and findings have uncertain generalizability to lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). These findings underscore the need for establishing a consensus surge metric that is sensitive to capturing harms in everyday fluctuations and future pandemics and is scalable to LMICs.

Mortality over time among COVID-19 patients hospitalized during the first surge of the pandemic: A large cohort study

Background

Capacity strain negatively impacts patient outcome, and the effects of patient surge are a continuous threat during the COVID-19 pandemic. Evaluating changes in mortality over time enables evidence-based resource planning, thus improving patient outcome. Our aim was to describe baseline risk factors associated with mortality among COVID-19 hospitalized patients and to compare mortality rates over time.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in the largest referral hospital for COVID-19 patients in Sao Paulo, Brazil. We investigated risk factors associated with mortality during hospitalization. Independent variables included age group, sex, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, admission period according to the stage of the first wave of the epidemic (early, peak, and late), and intubation.

Results

We included 2949 consecutive COVID-19 patients. 1895 of them were admitted to the ICU, and 1473 required mechanical ventilation. Median length of stay in the ICU was 10 (IQR 5–17) days. Overall mortality rate was 35%, and the adjusted odds ratios for mortality increased with age, male sex, higher Charlson Comorbidity index, need for mechanical ventilation, and being admitted to the hospital during the wave peak of the epidemic. Being admitted to the hospital during the wave peak was associated with a 33% higher risk of mortality.

Conclusions

In-hospital mortality was independently affected by the epidemic period. The recognition of modifiable operational variables associated with patient outcome highlights the importance of a preparedness plan and institutional protocols that include evidence-based practices and allocation of resources.

Mass Critical Care Surge Response During COVID-19: Implementation of Contingency Strategies - A Preliminary Report of Findings From the Task Force for Mass Critical Care

BACKGROUND

After the publication of a 2014 consensus statement regarding mass critical care during public health emergencies, much has been learned about surge responses and the care of overwhelming numbers of patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Gaps in prior pandemic planning were identified and require modification in the midst of severe ongoing surges throughout the world.

RESEARCH QUESTION

A subcommittee from The Task Force for Mass Critical Care (TFMCC) investigated the most recent COVID-19 publications coupled with TFMCC members anecdotal experience in order to formulate operational strategies to optimize contingency level care, and prevent crisis care circumstances associated with increased mortality.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

TFMCC adopted a modified version of established rapid guideline methodologies from the World Health Organization and the Guidelines International Network-McMaster Guideline Development Checklist. With a consensus development process incorporating expert opinion to define important questions and extract evidence, the TFMCC developed relevant pandemic surge suggestions in a structured manner, incorporating peer-reviewed literature, "gray" evidence from lay media sources, and anecdotal experiential evidence.

RESULTS

Ten suggestions were identified regarding staffing, load-balancing, communication, and technology. Staffing models are suggested with resilience strategies to support critical care staff. ICU surge strategies and strain indicators are suggested to enhance ICU prioritization tactics to maintain contingency level care and to avoid crisis triage, with early transfer strategies to further load-balance care. We suggest that intensivists and hospitalists be engaged with the incident command structure to ensure two-way communication, situational awareness, and the use of technology to support critical care delivery and families of patients in ICUs.

INTERPRETATION

A subcommittee from the TFMCC offers interim evidence-informed operational strategies to assist hospitals and communities to plan for and respond to surge capacity demands resulting from COVID-19.