Trends in Early and Late Mortality in Patients With Severe Acute Pancreatitis Admitted to ICUs: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Impact of Sepsis Onset Timing on All-Cause Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Sepsis complicates acute pancreatitis (AP), increasing mortality risk. Few studies have examined how sepsis and its onset timing affect mortality in AP. This study evaluates the association between sepsis occurrence and all-cause mortality in AP, focusing specifically on the impact of sepsis onset timing.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 494 ICU-admitted AP patients from the MIMIC-IV database and 91 from our center. Patients were grouped by sepsis occurrence and onset timing. Clinical outcomes were in-hospital and 90-day all-cause mortality. Machine learning identified key variables associated with mortality. Multivariable regression analyzed the impact of sepsis and its onset timing on mortality. To reduce baseline differences, propensity score matching (PSM) based on time to sepsis was conducted. After PSM, Kaplan-Meier survival analyses incorporated data from our center for validation. Restricted cubic spline analysis examined any nonlinear relationship between sepsis onset timing and mortality.

RESULTS

Patients with sepsis had significantly higher in-hospital and 90-day mortality rates than those without sepsis (p < 0.05). Sepsis was identified as a significant risk factor for in-hospital mortality and remained significantly associated after adjusting for key variables (p < 0.05). However, sepsis onset timing did not significantly impact in-hospital or 90-day mortality. These findings were validated after PSM and with our center's data. No nonlinear relationship between sepsis onset timing and mortality was found.

CONCLUSION

Sepsis significantly increases all-cause mortality in AP patients, but the timing of its onset has limited impact. Continuous monitoring and intervention for sepsis during hospitalization are recommended to improve prognosis.

Early enteral nutrition with fructooligosaccharides improves prognosis in severe acute pancreatitis

Soluble dietary fiber, notably as an adjunct to early enteral nutrition (EEN), is gaining prominence in clinical therapy. This study evaluates the effect of fructooligosaccharides (FOS), a new soluble dietary fiber, on the prognosis of patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). In a retrospective cohort study at the Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from July 2017 to July 2023, 110 SAP patients were analyzed. TPF (enteral nutritional suspension of total protein)-normal and TPF-FOS groups both received standard EEN solutions; the latter additionally received FOS. Outcomes were compared between the groups. The study included 37 patients in the TPF-FOS group and 73 patients in the TPF-normal group. Mortality was 13.50% in the TPF-FOS group and 34.20% in the TPF-normal group (P < 0.05). FOS was identified as an independent protective factor (OR: 0.826, P = 0.041). The TPF-FOS group showed lower rates of intra-abdominal infection and decreased the level of inflammation (P < 0.05). FOS potentially acts as an independent protective factor against death in SAP. Additionally, the supplementation of EEN with FOS may contribute to reducing mortality and improving the prognosis of SAP patients.

A systematic review of machine learning-based prognostic models for acute pancreatitis: Towards improving methods and reporting quality

BACKGROUND

An accurate prognostic tool is essential to aid clinical decision-making (e.g., patient triage) and to advance personalized medicine. However, such a prognostic tool is lacking for acute pancreatitis (AP). Increasingly machine learning (ML) techniques are being used to develop high-performing prognostic models in AP. However, methodologic and reporting quality has received little attention. High-quality reporting and study methodology are critical for model validity, reproducibility, and clinical implementation. In collaboration with content experts in ML methodology, we performed a systematic review critically appraising the quality of methodology and reporting of recently published ML AP prognostic models.

METHODS/FINDINGS

Using a validated search strategy, we identified ML AP studies from the databases MEDLINE and EMBASE published between January 2021 and December 2023. We also searched pre-print servers medRxiv, bioRxiv, and arXiv for pre-prints registered between January 2021 and December 2023. Eligibility criteria included all retrospective or prospective studies that developed or validated new or existing ML models in patients with AP that predicted an outcome following an episode of AP. Meta-analysis was considered if there was homogeneity in the study design and in the type of outcome predicted. For risk of bias (ROB) assessment, we used the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Quality of reporting was assessed using the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model of Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis-Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) statement that defines standards for 27 items that should be reported in publications using ML prognostic models. The search strategy identified 6,480 publications of which 30 met the eligibility criteria. Studies originated from China (22), the United States (4), and other (4). All 30 studies developed a new ML model and none sought to validate an existing ML model, producing a total of 39 new ML models. AP severity (23/39) or mortality (6/39) were the most common outcomes predicted. The mean area under the curve for all models and endpoints was 0.91 (SD 0.08). The ROB was high for at least one domain in all 39 models, particularly for the analysis domain (37/39 models). Steps were not taken to minimize over-optimistic model performance in 27/39 models. Due to heterogeneity in the study design and in how the outcomes were defined and determined, meta-analysis was not performed. Studies reported on only 15/27 items from TRIPOD+AI standards, with only 7/30 justifying sample size and 13/30 assessing data quality. Other reporting deficiencies included omissions regarding human-AI interaction (28/30), handling low-quality or incomplete data in practice (27/30), sharing analytical codes (25/30), study protocols (25/30), and reporting source data (19/30).

CONCLUSIONS

There are significant deficiencies in the methodology and reporting of recently published ML based prognostic models in AP patients. These undermine the validity, reproducibility, and implementation of these prognostic models despite their promise of superior predictive accuracy.

REGISTRATION

Research Registry (reviewregistry1727).

Comparative study of gut microbiota and metabolite variations between severe and mild acute pancreatitis patients at different stages

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is influenced by interactions between gut microbiota and metabolic products, though the mechanisms remain unclear. This study investigates variations in gut microbiota and metabolites between severe (SAP) and mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) patients to assess their impact on disease progression. Using a cross-sectional cohort design, gut microbiota and metabolite profiles were compared in SAP and MAP patients over two weeks post-diagnosis. 16S rRNA gene sequencing and metabolomic analyses, including KEGG pathway assessments and Spearman correlation, were employed, along with Mendelian Randomization (MR) to assess the influence of specific microbiota on AP. Results showed that SAP patients had significantly reduced gut microbiota diversity, which further declined in the second week. This was marked by increases in pathogenic bacteria like Stenotrophomonas and Enterobacter and decreases in beneficial bacteria such as Blautia. Key changes included a rise in Proteobacteria and a decline in Ruminococcaceae, Enterococcus, and Faecalicatena. Metabolic shifts included lipid metabolite upregulation and antioxidant downregulation. Correlation analysis linked Stenotrophomonas to short-chain fatty acid and amino acid metabolism, highlighting its role in disease progression. MR analysis confirmed negative causal relationships between Enterococcus B, Faecalicatena torques, and AP, suggesting protective effects. Variations in Blautia species indicated differing influences on AP. This study underscores the critical role of gut microbiota and metabolites in AP progression and suggests the need for further research to confirm these findings and explore targeted therapeutic interventions.

Incidence, implications and predictors of abdominal compartment syndrome in acute pancreatitis: A nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) often presents with varying severity, with a small fraction evolving into severe AP, and is associated with high mortality. Complications such as intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH) and abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS) are intricately associated with AP.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical implications and predictors of ACS in AP patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database on adult AP patients, further stratified by the presence of concurrent ACS. The data extraction included demographics, underlying comorbidities, and clinical outcomes. Multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were performed using STATA (v.14.2).

RESULTS

Of the 1,099,175 adult AP patients, only 1,090 (0.001%) exhibited ACS. AP patients with ACS had elevated inpatient mortality and all major complications, including septic shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), requirement for total parenteral nutrition (TPN), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (P < 0.01). These patients also exhibited increased odds of requiring pancreatic drainage and necrosectomy (P < 0.01). Predictor analysis identified blood transfusion, obesity (BMI ≥30), and admission to large teaching hospitals as factors associated with the development of ACS in AP patients. Conversely, age, female gender, biliary etiology of AP, and smoking were found less frequently in patients with ACS.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the significant morbidity, mortality, and healthcare resource utilization associated with the concurrence of ACS in AP patients. We identified potential factors associated with ACS in AP patients. Significantly worse outcomes in ACS necessitate the need for early diagnosis, meticulous monitoring, and targeted therapeutic interventions for AP patients at risk of developing ACS.

Predicting the risk of early intensive care unit admission for patients hospitalized with acute pancreatitis using supervised machine learning

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a complex and life-threatening disease. Early recognition of factors predicting morbidity and mortality is crucial. We aimed to develop and validate a pragmatic model to predict the individualized risk of early intensive care unit (ICU) admission for patients with AP.

METHODS

The 2019 Nationwide Readmission Database was used to identify patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AP without ICU admission. A matched comparison cohort of AP patients with ICU admission within 7 days of hospitalization was identified from the National Inpatient Sample after 1:N propensity score matching. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select predictors and develop an ICU acute pancreatitis risk (IAPR) score validated by 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

A total of 1513 patients hospitalized for AP were included. The median age was 50.0 years (interquartile range: 39.0-63.0). The three predictors that were selected included hypoxia (area under the curve [AUC] 0.78), acute kidney injury (AUC 0.72), and cardiac arrhythmia (AUC 0.61). These variables were used to develop a nomogram that displayed excellent discrimination (AUC 0.874) (bootstrap bias-corrected 95% confidence interval 0.824-0.876). There was no evidence of miscalibration (test statistic = 2.88; P = 0.09). For high-risk patients (total score >6 points), the sensitivity was 68.94% and the specificity was 92.66%.

CONCLUSIONS

This supervised machine learning-based model can help recognize high-risk AP hospitalizations. Clinicians may use the IAPR score to identify patients with AP at high risk of ICU admission within the first week of hospitalization.

Fluid resuscitation in the early management of acute pancreatitis - evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Third space fluid loss is one of the hallmarks of the pathophysiology of acute pancreatitis (AP) contributing to complications, including organ failure and death. We conducted a systematic review of literature to determine the ideal fluid resuscitation in the early management of AP, primarily comparing aggressive versus moderate intravenous fluid resuscitation (AIR vs MIR).

METHODS

A systematic review of major reference databases was undertaken. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects model. Bias was assessed using Cochrane risk of bias and ROBINS-I tools for randomized and non-randomised studies, respectively.

RESULTS

Twenty studies were included in the analysis. Though there was no significant difference in mortality between AIR and MIR groups (8.3% versus 6.0%; p = 0.3), AIR cohort had significantly higher rates of organ failure (p = 0.009), including pulmonary (p = 0.02) and renal (p = 0.01) complications. Similarly, there was no difference in mortality between normal saline (NS) and Ringer's lactate (RL) (3.17% versus 3.01%; p = 0.23), though patients treated with NS had a significantly longer length of hospital stay (LOS) (p = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence appears to support moderate intravenous resuscitation (level of evidence, low) with RL (level of evidence, moderate) in the early management of AP.

Mortality and costs related to severe acute pancreatitis in the intensive care units of Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), 2003-2020

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Comprehensive data on the burden of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in global intensive care units (ICUs) and trends over time are lacking. Our objective was to compare trends in hospital and ICU mortality, in-hospital and ICU length of stay, and costs related to ICU admission in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) for SAP.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, observational, cohort study of ICU admissions reported to the ANZ Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database over three consecutive six-year time periods from 2003 to 2020.

RESULTS

12,635 patients with SAP from 189 ICUs in ANZ were analysed. No difference in adjusted hospital mortality (11.4% vs 11.5% vs 11.0%, p = 0.85) and ICU mortality rates (7.5% vs 8.0% vs 8.1%, p = 0.73) were noted over the study period. Median length of hospital admission reduced over time (13.9 days in 2003-08, 13.1 days in 2009-14 and 12.5 days in 2015-20; p < 0.01). No difference in length of ICU stay was noted over the study period (p = 0.13). The cost of managing SAP in ANZ ICUs remained constant over the three time periods.

CONCLUSIONS

In critically-ill SAP patients in ANZ, no change in mortality has been noted over nearly two decades. There was a slight reduction in hospital stay (1 day), while the length of ICU stay remained unchanged. Given the significant costs related to care of patients with SAP in ICU, these findings highlight the need to prioritise resource allocation for healthcare delivery and targeted clinical research to identify treatments aimed at reducing mortality.

Update on the management of acute pancreatitis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review provides insight into the recent advancements in the management of acute pancreatitis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Moderate fluid resuscitation and Ringer's lactate has advantages above aggressive fluid resuscitation and normal saline, respectively. A normal "on-demand" diet has a positive effect on recovery from acute pancreatitis and length of hospital stay. A multimodal pain management approach including epidural analgesia might reduce unwarranted effects of opiate use. A more targeted use of antibiotics is starting to emerge. Markers such as procalcitonin may be used to limit unwarranted antibiotic use. Conversely, many patients with infected necrotizing pancreatitis can be treated with only antibiotics, although the optimal choice and duration is unclear. Delay of drainage as much as is possible is advised since it is associated with less procedures. If drainage is required, clinicians have an expanding arsenal of interventional options to their disposal such as the lumen-apposing metal stent for transgastric drainage and (repeated) necrosectomy. Immunomodulation using removal of systemic cytokines or anti-inflammatory drugs is an attractive idea, but up to now the results of clinical trials are disappointing. No additional preventive measures beside non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) can be recommended for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis.

SUMMARY

More treatment modalities that are less invasive became available and a trend towards less aggressive treatments (fluids, starvation, interventions, opiates) of acute pancreatitis is again emerging. Despite recent advancements, the pathophysiology of specific subgroup phenotypes is still poorly understood which reflects the disappointing results of pharmacological and immunomodulatory trials.

A novel mini-invasive step-up approach for the treatment of severe acute pancreatitis with extensive infected necrosis: A single center case series study

RATIONALE

Complete removal of necrosis is critical for treating patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) presenting infection of pancreatic necrosis (IPN). Frequently used mini-invasive methods include the surgical step-up approach suitable for necrosis extending laterally, whereas the endoscopic step-up approach is suitable for medial necrosis. However, in patients with extensive IPN, either approach alone usually has limited treatment effects.

PATIENT CONCERNS

We describe a case series of combined mini-invasive step-up approach for treating extensive IPN.

DIAGNOSES

Patients were diagnosed with SAP and had extensive IPN.

INTERVENTIONS

Seven patients with SAP and extensive IPN were enrolled. All patients underwent a combined step-up approach comprising 4 steps: percutaneous catheter drainage, continuous negative pressure irrigation (CNPI), percutaneous endoscopic necrosectomy (PEN), and transgastric necrosectomy (TN).

OUTCOMES

The median interval from symptom onset to percutaneous catheter drainage and CNPI was 11 days (range, 6-14) and 18 days (range, 14-26), and the median CNPI duration was 84 days (range, 54-116). The median interval from the onset of symptoms to PEN and TN was 36 days (range, 23-42) and 41 days (range, 34-48), respectively, and the median number of procedures was 2 (range, 1-2) for PEN and 3 (range, 2-4) for TN. Only a minor case of abdominal bleeding and a pancreatic-cutaneous fistula were reported, both resolved after conservative treatment. The median length of stay in the intensive care unit was 111 days (range, 73-133); all patients survived.

LESSONS

This mini-invasive step-up approach shows promising clinical effects and is relatively safe in critically ill patients with extensive IPN and high-risk surgical intervention.