A Validated Prognostic Model and Nomogram to Predict Early-Onset Complications Leading to Surgery in Patients With Crohn's Disease

A comprehensive review and update on acute severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding in Crohn's disease: a management algorithm

Acute severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding is a rare but potentially fatal complication of Crohn's disease (CD), affecting between 0.6% and 5.5% of CD patients during their lifelong disease course. Managing bleeding episodes effectively hinges on vital resuscitation. Endoscopic evaluation and computed tomography play crucial roles in accurate identification and intervention. Fortunately, most bleeding episodes can be successfully managed through appropriate conservative treatment. Medical therapies, particularly infliximab, aim to induce and maintain mucosal healing and serve as the leading treatment approach. Minimally invasive procedures, such as endoscopic hemostasis and angio-embolization, can achieve immediate hemostasis. Surgical treatment is only considered a last resort when conservative therapies fail. Despite achieving hemostasis, the risk of rebleeding ranges from 19.0% to 50.5%. The objective of this review is to provide a comprehensive and updated overview of the clinical manifestations, diagnostic methods, therapeutic approaches, and prognostic outcomes associated with acute severe gastrointestinal bleeding in CD. Furthermore, we aimed to propose a management algorithm to assist clinicians in the effective management of this condition.

Bowel Stiffness Assessed by Shear-Wave Ultrasound Elastography Predicts Disease Behavior Progression in Patients With Crohn's Disease

INTRODUCTION

There is a lack of reliable predictors of disease behavior progression in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). Real-time shear-wave elastography (SWE) is a novel method for evaluating tissue stiffness. However, its value for assessing CD has not yet been investigated. We aimed to explore the value of SWE and other ultrasound parameters at diagnosis in predicting CD behavior progression.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data from patients with CD with the nonstenotic nonpenetrating disease (B1 phenotype based on the Montreal classification). All patients underwent intestinal ultrasound at baseline and were followed up. The end point was defined as disease behavior progression to stricturing (B2) or penetrating (B3) disease. Cox regression analysis was performed for the association between baseline characteristics and subsequent end points. In addition, a multivariate nomogram was established to predict the risk of disease behavior progression quantitatively.

RESULTS

A total of 130 patients with CD with B1 phenotype were enrolled. Twenty-seven patients (20.8%) developed B2 or B3 disease, with a median follow-up of 33 months. Multivariate analysis identified that SWE was the only independent predictor of disease behavior progression (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.12, P = 0.001). A reverse of the HR appeared at the cutoff 12.75 kPa. The nomogram incorporating SWE and other clinical characteristics showed a good prediction performance (area under the curve = 0.792).

DISCUSSION

Intestinal stiffness assessed using SWE is an independent predictor of disease behavior progression in patients with CD. Patients with CD with SWE >12.75 kPa at diagnosis are prone to progress toward stricturing or penetrating diseases.

The Efficacy and Safety of Biologic Drugs in the Treatment of Moderate-Severe Crohn's Disease: A Systematic Review

Conventional therapy is the most commonly used treatment for Crohn's disease (CD), but it does not always achieve disease control, which is why the use of biologic drugs is increasing. The aim of this study was to analyze the efficacy and safety of biologic drugs in adult patients diagnosed with moderate-severe CD. An intensive search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science and Medline to collect phase 2 or 3 clinical trials published between 2018 and 2023 that were randomized, placebo-controlled and double-blind trials analyzing the efficacy and safety of biologic drugs in adult patients diagnosed with CD. This systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA statement. Thirteen clinical trials evaluating eight biologic drugs were included. Upadacitinib, vedolizumab, adalimumab, guselkumab, mirikizumab, ustekinumab and risankizumab showed statistically significant efficacy across different clinical, endoscopic, histological, genetic, biomarker or quality-of-life parameters. However, PF-00547659 only showed statistically significant results for the CDAI-70 at week 12. In terms of safety, the incidence and severity of adverse effects were analyzed, with all drugs being well tolerated and presenting a good safety profile since most adverse effects were mild. Biologic drugs can be considered an effective and safe option for the treatment of moderate-severe CD in adult patients with an inadequate response or intolerance to conventional therapy.

Mathematical Models Including microRNA Levels of Mesenteric Adipose Tissue May Predict Postoperative Relapse in Crohn's Disease Patients

Background and Aims

Recent evidence suggests that the mesenteric adipose tissue (MAT) near the affected intestine may play a role in Crohn's disease (CD) pathophysiology. Modulation of several transcripts has already been identified in the MAT of CD in the literature. Therefore, our aim was to validate the microRNA (miRNA) transcript levels and their target genes in the MAT of active CD patients and correlate them with clinical and epidemiological data.

Methods

Samples from the MAT of surgical specimens from 25 active CD patients were obtained. The control group comprised fifteen patients who underwent surgery for other diseases, except inflammatory bowel diseases. Transcriptional levels of miRNA and their target genes were assessed by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. The correlation between transcripts and clinical characteristics was obtained using multiple linear regression. The mathematical models (M) underwent a statistical filter to ensure robustness and reliability (P value < .05; adjusted R-squared (Rˆ2)> .99; correct predictions of more than 60%).

Results

miRNA-650 and miRNA-29c were upregulated in the MAT of CD compared to the control group (P < .0001 and P = .0032, respectively), besides presenting decreased levels of their target genes. Two were target genes of the miRNA-650: glutamine-fructose-6-phosphate transaminase 2 (P = .012) and aldehyde dehydrogenase 4 family (P = .0035); and 4 were targets of the miRNA-29c: cell death-inducing DFFA-like effector c (P = .001), E2F transcription factor-1 (P = .007), hypoxia-inducible factor 3 subunit alpha (P = .0029), and pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase 4 (P = .0054). We found 2 M with statistical strength and robustness. The performance test identified one model with 100% accuracy for predicting the month of recurrence and determining patients with less risk of early relapse after surgery.

Conclusion

We demonstrate that miRNA-650 and miRNA-29c and some of their target genes, besides clinical and epidemiological variables, may be useful in a model to predict when disease relapse may occur in CD patients who underwent surgery. These findings constitute a potential tool to guide postoperative clinical management.

The Risk of Developing Disabling Crohn's Disease: Validation of a Clinical Prediction Rule to Improve Treatment Decision Making

BACKGROUND

Crohn's disease (CD) is characterized by the development of complications over the course of the disease. It is crucial to identify predictive factors of disabling disease, in order to target patients for early intervention. We evaluated risk factors of disabling CD and developed a prognostic model.

METHODS

In total, 511 CD patients were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify demographic, clinical, and biological risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was developed in a subgroup of patients with noncomplicated CD (inflammatory pattern and no perianal disease).

RESULTS

The rate of disabling CD within 5 years after diagnosis was 74.6%. Disabling disease was associated with gender, location of disease, requirement of steroids for the first flare, and perianal lesions. In the subgroup of patients (310) with noncomplicated CD, the rate of disabling CD was 80%. In the multivariate analysis age at onset <40 years (OR = 3.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52-7.90), extensive disease (L3/L4) (OR = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.18-6.06), smoking habit (OR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.03-4.27), requirement of steroids at the first flare (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.09-4.45), and albumin (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.36-0.96) were associated with development of disabling disease. The developed predictive nomogram based on these factors presented good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.723 (95% CI: 0.670-0.830).

CONCLUSION

We identified predictive factors of disabling CD and developed an easy-to-use prognostic model that may be used in clinical practice to help identify patients at high risk and address treatment effectively.

Timing of individualized surgical intervention in Crohn’s disease

Crohn’s disease (CD) is a chronic inflammatory disorder of the gastrointestinal tract with an increasing incidence worldwide. Comprehensive therapy for CD focuses on symptom control and healing the intestinal mucosa to improve the quality of life and prevent complications. Surgical intervention plays a vital role in comprehensive therapy. However, deciding the optimal timing for surgical intervention has long been a focus of controversy. This review provides insights into the timing of surgery for CD and guides clinicians in daily treatment.

Nomogram to predict permanent stoma in rectal cancer patients after sphincter-saving surgery

BACKGROUND

Approximately 20 percent of patients with a tumour localized in the low rectum still encounter the possibility of requiring permanent stoma (PS), which can cause drastic changes in lifestyle and physical perceptions.

AIM

To determine the risk factors for PS and to develop a prediction model to predict the probability of PS in rectal cancer patients after sphincter-saving surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 421 rectal cancer patients who underwent radical surgery at Taipei Medical University Hospital between January 2012 and December 2020 was included in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors for PS. A nomogram was developed according to the independent risk factors obtained in the multivariate analysis. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using a receiver operating characteristic curve and a calibration curve.

RESULTS

The PS rate after sphincter-saving surgery was 15.1% (59/391) in our study after a median follow-up of 47.3 mo (range 7–114 mo). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that local recurrence, perirectal abscess, anastomosis site stenosis, perineural invasion, tumor size and operative time were independent risk factors for PS. These identified risk factors were incorporated into the nomogram, and the concordance index of this model was 0.903 (95%CI: 0.851-0.955). According to the calibration curves, the nomogram represents a perfect prediction model.

CONCLUSION

Several risk factors for PS after sphincter-saving surgery were identified. Our nomogram exhibited perfect predictive ability and will improve a physician’s ability to communicate the benefits and risks of various treatment options in shared decision making.