Economic Evaluation of Selective Neonatal Bacillus Calmette-Guérin Vaccination of High-risk Infants in Ireland

Retrospective cohort study exploring the impact of universal Tuberculosis (TB) vaccination cessation on the epidemiology of paediatric TB in Ireland, 2011-2021

BACKGROUND

Since 2010, Ireland's Tuberculosis (TB) crude incidence rate (CIR) remains below 10 per 100,000 population defining it as a low TB incidence country. Ireland maintained a universal BCG vaccination programme until its discontinuation in 2015 due to lack of vaccine supply. This study explores the impact of discontinuing a national universal BCG vaccination programme on the epidemiology of paediatric TB cases.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed TB notifications aged 0-6 years old reported to the Irish National TB Surveillance System between 2011 and 2021. Key epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends in TB age specific incidence rates (ASIRs) were compared between 0 and 6 year old cases born during a period of universal BCG vaccination (2007-2015) and 0-6 year old cases born after BCG vaccination ceased (2015-2021).

RESULTS

No significant temporal trend was detected in the overall 0-6 year old ASIR by notification year during 2011-2021 (IRR:0.95; 0.86-1.1). However, the temporal trend for cases born during universal vaccination showed a significant decline (0.74; CIR: 0.62-0.89) while cases born after BCG vaccination ceased had a non-significant increase (1.2; CIR: 0.73-1.86). A significantly declining temporal trend was detected among cases born in Ireland during universal vaccination (IRR:0.73; 0.62-0.86), but no significant trend was detected in the cases born outside Ireland during universal vaccination (IRR:0.83; 0.53-1.31). No significant trend was detected in cases born after vaccination ceased in either cases born in Ireland (IRR:1.0; 0.60-1.65) or those born outside Ireland (IRR:0.64; 0.29-1.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Universal BCG cessation has not yet directly impacted on TB cases among 0-6 year olds in Ireland. However, interruption of the previously declining temporal trend in this cohort during universal vaccination may be an early warning of a future increase. Paediatric TB cases remain an important cohort for timely surveillance to monitor trends in this primarily unvaccinated cohort to evaluate the long-term effects.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of BCG Vaccination against Tuberculosis in Indonesia: A Model-Based Study

Bacillus Calmette–Guerin (BCG), the only available vaccine for tuberculosis (TB), has been applied for decades. The Indonesian government recently introduced a national TB disease control programme that includes several action plans, notably enhanced vaccination coverage, which can be strengthened through underpinning its favourable cost-effectiveness. We designed a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of Indonesia’s current BCG vaccination programme. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were evaluated from the perspectives of both society and healthcare. The robustness of the analysis was confirmed through univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Using epidemiological data compiled for Indonesia, BCG vaccination at a price US$14 was estimated to be a cost-effective strategy in controlling TB disease. From societal and healthcare perspectives, ICERs were US$104 and US$112 per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), respectively. The results were robust for variations of most variables in the univariate analysis. Notably, the vaccine’s effectiveness regarding disease protection, vaccination costs, and case detection rates were key drivers for cost-effectiveness. The PSA results indicated that vaccination was cost-effective even at US$175 threshold in 95% of cases, approximating the monthly GDP per capita. Our findings suggest that this strategy was highly cost-effective and merits prioritization and extension within the national TB programme. Our results may be relevant for other high endemic low- and middle-income countries.

Health economic evaluation of current vaccination strategies and new vaccines against tuberculosis: a systematic review

Introduction: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is the only licensed vaccine for tuberculosis, but its effectiveness is limited and varies by age. New candidate vaccines are currently being investigated. In response to the declining incidence of TB, practices relating to BCG vaccination have changed in various countries in recent years. A valid cost-effectiveness study is therefore needed in order to assist decision-makers in the implementation of cost-effective strategies for BCG vaccination. Areas covered: Studies involving economic evaluations of BCG vaccination were reviewed in order to present current findings concerning a range of BCG vaccination strategies in a variety of regions, target populations, and vaccine types. The Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) instrument was used to assess the quality of the studies included in the analysis. Expert opinion: Most of the studies showed a favorable economic profile of BCG vaccination. Selective strategies seem the most cost-effective option for low-incidence areas. Varying results on revaccination strategies did not lead to any conclusive finding on the cost-effectiveness of the strategies. A novel vaccine - either a BCG replacement or booster vaccine that provides better protection, especially in adults - has the potential to enhance the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating against tuberculosis.

Impact of BCG vaccination on incidence of tuberculosis disease in southern Ireland

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the ninth leading cause of death worldwide and the leading cause from a single infectious agent. Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) is the only licensed vaccine for TB, yet its efficacy remains debated with variations in vaccine sub-strains, policies, and practices observed across the world. Three BCG vaccination policies were implemented across adjoining regions in the South West of Ireland from 1972; neonatal vaccination (vaccinated Region-A), vaccination of children aged 10–12 years (vaccinated Region-B) and no vaccination (unvaccinated Region-C). The aim of this study is to examine the impact of different BCG vaccination policies on incidence of TB disease in the South of Ireland over a 13-year period.

Methods

Cases of active TB disease from 2003 to 2016 were identified through surveillance data. Residential addresses for each case were geocoded using the Google Maps API. Addresses were linked to 2011 census population data and to Local Health Offices BCG coverage data for study regions A-C. A steady-state population was assumed to calculate the 13-year incidence of TB disease. Using SatScan (v9.4.4), spatial clusters were identified at a small area level with the spatial scan statistic based on the discrete Poisson probability distribution.

Results

Of 621 TB disease cases identified, 510 could be linked to the study area based on the reported addresses. The median age was 42 years (range 4 months - 94 years), 65% male and 66% Irish born. The incidence of TB disease was higher in the unvaccinated population, region-C 132/100,000 (95% CI 116–150) versus vaccinated region-A 56/100,000 (95%CI 45–69) and region-B 44/100,000 (95%CI 29–63). A spatial cluster analysis identified a single high-risk cluster in region -C where the relative risk (vs. the areas outside of the cluster) was 4.94 (95% CI 4.03 to 5.96).

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates significant regional variation in the incidence of TB in demographically similar populations based on BCG vaccination policy. This observation is particularly noteworthy in a country with low TB disease incidence such as Ireland. These findings strengthen existing data demonstrating efficacy of BCG vaccination for primary prevention of TB disease.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4026-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.