Simulation of expected childhood and adolescent thyroid cancer cases in Japan using a cancer-progression model based on the National Cancer Registry: Application to the first-round thyroid examination of the Fukushima Health Management Survey

Radiation-Related Thyroid Cancer

Radiation is an environmental factor that elevates the risk of developing thyroid cancer. Actual and possible scenarios of exposures to external and internal radiation are multiple and diverse. This article reviews radiation doses to the thyroid and corresponding cancer risks due to planned, existing, and emergency exposure situations, and medical, public, and occupational categories of exposures. Any exposure scenario may deliver a range of doses to the thyroid, and the risk for cancer is addressed along with modifying factors. The consequences of the Chornobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents are described, summarizing the information on thyroid cancer epidemiology, treatment, and prognosis, clinicopathological characteristics, and genetic alterations. The Chornobyl thyroid cancers have evolved in time: becoming less aggressive and driver shifting from fusions to point mutations. A comparison of thyroid cancers from the 2 areas reveals numerous differences that cumulatively suggest the low probability of the radiogenic nature of thyroid cancers in Fukushima. In view of continuing usage of different sources of radiation in various settings, the possible ways of reducing thyroid cancer risk from exposures are considered. For external exposures, reasonable measures are generally in line with the As Low As Reasonably Achievable principle, while for internal irradiation from radioactive iodine, thyroid blocking with stable iodine may be recommended in addition to other measures in case of anticipated exposures from a nuclear reactor accident. Finally, the perspectives of studies of radiation effects on the thyroid are discussed from the epidemiological, basic science, and clinical points of view.

A Comprehensive Review of the Progress and Evaluation of the Thyroid Ultrasound Examination Program, the Fukushima Health Management Survey

The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, and the subsequent tsunami caused an accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, in which extensive damage to the nuclear power reactors resulted in massive radioactive contamination. Fukushima Prefecture implemented the Thyroid Ultrasound Examination (TUE) program as part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey project in response to residents' anxieties about health risks due to radiation exposure for residents aged 0-18 years at the time of the nuclear accident. This program consisted of the primary examination and the confirmatory examination. In the primary examination, thyroid nodules and cysts were examined using portable ultrasound apparatuses. The confirmatory examination was performed to have clinical or cytological diagnosis. As of June 30, 2021, 116, 71, 31, 36, and 9 examinees in the first, second, third, and fourth round of surveys, and the survey at age 25 years, respectively, were determined to have nodules cytologically diagnosed as malignant or suspicious for malignancy. The confirmatory examination of the fourth-round survey and the primary and confirmatory examination of fifth-round survey are currently in progress. Together with the low thyroid absorbed radiation dose estimated in the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 2020 report, our results suggested that the increased incidence of childhood thyroid cancer in Fukushima Prefecture was not caused by radiation exposure, but rather by the highly sensitive detection method. As detailed in this review, there were ongoing challenges in our program, such as actions against the risk of overdiagnosis and psychological support for participants and their families.

Achievements and Current Status of the Fukushima Health Management Survey

The Fukushima Health Management Survey (FHMS) was established in response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on March 11, 2011. The primary objectives of the study are to monitor residents' long-term health and promote their future well-being, and to determine the health effects of long-term low-dose radiation exposure. This special issue summarizes the results and current status of the FHMS and discusses the challenges and future directions of the FHMS. The FHMS, a cohort study of all people who were residents in Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident, consists of a Basic Survey, Thyroid Ultrasound Examination, Comprehensive Health Check, Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey, and Pregnancy and Birth Survey. The radiation exposure was estimated based on the behavioral records examined using the Basic Survey. Although the response rate was low in the Basic Survey, the representativeness of the radiation exposure data was confirmed using additional surveys. There appears to be no relationship between the radiation exposure and risk of thyroid cancer, although more thyroid cancer cases were detected than initially expected. The ongoing Comprehensive Health Check and Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey have provided evidence of worsening physical and mental health status. The Pregnancy and Birth Survey showed rates of preterm delivery, low birth weight, and congenital abnormalities similar to the national average. Considering the above evidence, the Fukushima Prefectural Government decided to end the Pregnancy and Birth Survey at the end of March 2021, as recommended by the Prefectural Oversight Committee. The framework of the FHMS has not changed, but the FHMS needs to adapt according to the survey results and the changing needs of the eligible residents and municipalities.

Revisiting the Geographical Distribution of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Fukushima Prefecture: Analysis of Data From the Second- and Third-round Thyroid Ultrasound Examination

BACKGROUND

After the first-round (Preliminary Baseline Survey) ultrasound-based examination for thyroid cancer in response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, two rounds of surveys (Full-scale Survey) have been carried out in Fukushima Prefecture. Using the data from these surveys, the geographical distribution of thyroid cancer incidence over 6 or 7 years after the disaster was examined.

METHODS

Children and adolescents who underwent the ultrasound-based examinations in the second- and/or third-round (Full-scale) survey in addition to the first-round survey were included. With a discrete survival model, we computed age, sex, and body mass index standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for municipalities. Then, we employed spatial statistics to assess geographic clustering tendency in SIRs and Poisson regression to assess the association of SIRs with the municipal average absorbed dose to the thyroid gland at the 59-municipality level.

RESULTS

Throughout the second- and third-round surveys, 99 thyroid cancer cases were diagnosed in the study population of 252,502 individuals. Both flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics and maximized excess events test did not detect statistically significant spatial clustering (P = 0.17 and 0.54, respectively). Poisson regression showed no significant dose-response relationship: the estimated relative risks of lowest, middle-low, middle-high, and highest areas were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-2.59), 0.55 (95% CI, 0.31-0.97), 1.05 (95% CI, 0.79-1.40), and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.89-1.74).

CONCLUSION

There was no statistical support for geographic clustering or regional association with radiation dose measures of the thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort followed up to the third-round survey (fiscal years 2016-2017) in Fukushima Prefecture.

Demonstrating the undermining of science and health policy after the Fukushima nuclear accident by applying the Toolkit for detecting misused epidemiological methods

It is well known that science can be misused to hinder the resolution (i.e., the elimination and/or control) of a health problem. To recognize distorted and misapplied epidemiological science, a 33-item "Toolkit for detecting misused epidemiological methods" (hereinafter, the Toolkit) was published in 2021. Applying the Toolkit, we critically evaluated a review paper entitled, "Lessons learned from Chernobyl and Fukushima on thyroid cancer screening and recommendations in the case of a future nuclear accident" in Environment International in 2021, published by the SHAMISEN (Nuclear Emergency Situations - Improvement of Medical and Health Surveillance) international expert consortium. The article highlighted the claim that overdiagnosis of childhood thyroid cancers greatly increased the number of cases detected in ultrasound thyroid screening following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident. However, the reasons cited in the SHAMISEN review paper for overdiagnosis in mass screening lacked important information about the high incidence of thyroid cancers after the accident. The SHAMISEN review paper ignored published studies of screening results in unexposed areas, and included an invalid comparison of screenings among children with screenings among adults. The review omitted the actual state of screening in Fukushima after the nuclear accident, in which only nodules > 5 mm in diameter were examined. The growth rate of thyroid cancers was not slow, as emphasized in the SHAMISEN review paper; evidence shows that cancers detected in second-round screening grew to more than 5 mm in diameter over a 2-year period. The SHAMISEN consortium used an unfounded overdiagnosis hypothesis and misguided evidence to refute that the excess incidence of thyroid cancer was attributable to the nuclear accident, despite the findings of ongoing ultrasound screening for thyroid cancer in Fukushima and around Chernobyl. By our evaluation, the SHAMISEN review paper includes 20 of the 33 items in the Toolkit that demonstrate the misuse of epidemiology. The International Agency for Research on Cancer meeting in 2017 and its publication cited in the SHAMISEN review paper includes 12 of the 33 items in the Toolkit. Finally, we recommend a few enhancements to the Toolkit to increase its utility.

Communicating with residents about 10 years of scientific progress in understanding thyroid cancer risk in children after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident

After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident in 2011, radiation-related risk of childhood thyroid cancer remains a matter of concern among residents living in areas affected by radioactive plumes. As a countermeasure to that, the Fukushima Prefectural Government-in conjunction with Fukushima Medical University-began the Fukushima Thyroid Examination (FTE) campaign in 2011. As 116 definite or suspected thyroid cancer cases were found after the first round of FTE and the total number of cases was >240 as of June 2020, residents' concerns have deepened. Some researchers claim that these cases are radiation-induced, while others claim a screening effect (because FTE uses high-resolution ultrasound equipment) and express concern about over-diagnosis. Researchers therefore must address two conflicting issues: one is to elucidate radiation effects on thyroid cancer, which requires continuation of FTE; the other is to solve ethical problems associated with FTE. As to over-diagnosis, surgeons claim that early diagnosis benefits children by reducing the side-effects of treatment and prolonging disease-free survival, while cancer epidemiologists claim that early diagnosis will result in overtreatment without reducing the death rate. 'To receive FTE or not' and 'to stop FTE or not' are ongoing dilemmas for children (and their parents) and other stakeholders, respectively. To facilitate building a consensus among stakeholders, I overview recent findings about dose reconstruction, the dose-response relationship of thyroid cancer, over-diagnosis, and the natural history of thyroid cancer, all of which contribute to judging the risk-benefit balance of thyroid screening.

Factors Influencing the Proportion of Non-examinees in the Fukushima Health Management Survey for Childhood and Adolescent Thyroid Cancer: Results From the Baseline Survey

BACKGROUND

After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, a preliminary ultrasound-based screening for thyroid cancer was conducted to establish a baseline for subsequent evaluations. In this survey, we assessed the relationship between the proportion of non-examinees and characteristics of the target populations.

METHODS

After summarizing a regional difference of non-examinees among the population of 359,200 (primary evaluation) and 2,246 (confirmatory testing) individuals who were living in Fukushima Prefecture on March 11, 2011, we estimated odds ratios (ORs) for each characteristic, including age, sex, area of residence, and moving after the accident, based on the proportion of non-examinees for the primary examination and the confirmatory testing, using a multivariate logistic regression model.

RESULTS

The dataset included 64,117 non-examinees (primary evaluation) and 194 (confirmatory testing). The logistic regression result indicated that girls were not likely to be non-examinees compared to boys, with adjusted OR of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.81) for the primary evaluation. Odds were lowest for children 6-10 years old (OR 0.26; 95% CI, 0.25-0.27), and higher for those 11-15 years old (OR 1.28; 95% CI, 1.25-1.32) and over 16 years old (OR 5.30; 95% CI, 5.16-5.43) when compared to children 0-5 years old. Individuals residing in the western part of the prefecture showed higher ORs. There was a higher proportion of non-examinees among those who moved after the accident compared to those who did not in the primary evaluation (OR 1.72; 95% CI, 1.64-1.79).

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to demographic characteristics, a change of residence could be a potential factor that influenced the proportion of non-examinees. Our results will help proper interpretation of reports and prospective management of the survey.

Nested matched case control study for the Japan Fukushima Health Management Survey's first full-scale (second-round) thyroid examination

Since Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, thyroid ultrasound examinations have been conducted. The first full-scale examination detected 71 thyroid-cancer cases. This study examined whether radiation exposure was associated with thyroid-cancer incidence.Subjects were participants in the baseline screening and newborns during the 2011 fiscal year. Under nested matched case-control study design, 10 controls per each case were selected by matching the age, sex, baseline screening results, and interval between examinations. With 3 dose levels of external radiation: 1.3 + mSv (upper), 0.8 to 1.3 (middle), and 0.0 to 0.8 (reference), we applied 2 logistic models adjusting for 3 participation-proportions (primary, secondary, and fine-needle aspiratory cytology), overweight, and the B-result of baseline screening (Model 1), and past medical history, family history of thyroid cancer, and frequencies of eating seafood and seaweed in addition to the parameters in Model 1 (Model 2). We examined each model in 3 ways: (a) excluding subjects with a missing radiation exposure dose; and substituting (b1) median or (b2) mean dose of the municipality with missing dose.Odds ratios (ORs) of middle-dose exposure were (a) 1.35 (0.46-3.94), (b1) 1.55 (0.61-3.96), and (b2) 1.23 (0.50-3.03) for Model 1, and (a) 1.18 (0.39-3.57), (b1) 1.31 (0.49-3.49), and (b2) 1.02 (0.40-2.59) for Model 2. For upper-dose exposure, similar results were obtained. Past medical history was significantly associated (odds ratio  = 2.04-2.08) with both (b1) and (b2) in Model 2.No significant associations were obtained between the external radiation exposure and thyroid-cancer incidence.

Relationship between environmental radiation and radioactivity and childhood thyroid cancer found in Fukushima health management survey

Environmental radioactive contamination caused by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident has aroused great concern regarding a possible increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer. The ultrasound examinations were conducted immediately after the accident as part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey (FHMS), which is divided into the preliminary baseline survey (PBLS) and the full-scale survey (FSS). Some of their outcomes are reported regularly and made available to the public. We have detailed measurements of the air-dose rates and radioactive elements in soil in many places all over the Fukushima prefecture. To study the dose-response relationship, we begin with the assumption that the external and internal doses are correlated with the air-dose rate and the amount of ¹³¹I in soil, respectively. We then investigate the relationship between these estimated doses and the PBLS and FSS thyroid cancer cases. Our analysis shows that the dose-response curve with the FSS data clearly differs from that with the PBLS data. Finally, we consider the potential mitigating effects of evacuation from highly contaminated areas in both external and internal exposure scenarios.

Screening for differentiated thyroid cancer in selected populations

The main purpose of cancer screening programmes should not be to detect all cancers, but to discover potentially fatal or clinically relevant cancers. The US Preventive Services Task Force recommends against screening for thyroid cancer in the general, asymptomatic adult population, as such screening would result in harms that outweigh any potential benefits. This recommendation does not apply to patients with symptoms or to individuals at increased risk of thyroid cancer because of a history of exposure to ionising radiation (in childhood, as radioactive fallout, or in medical treatment as low-dose radiotherapy for benign conditions or high-dose radiation for malignancy), inherited genetic syndromes associated with thyroid cancer (eg, familial adenomatous polyposis), or one or more first-degree relatives with a history of thyroid cancer. We discuss the evidence for and against screening individuals who are at high risk, and consider the different screening tools available.

Incidence of Thyroid Cancer Among Children and Young Adults in Fukushima, Japan, Screened With 2 Rounds of Ultrasonography Within 5 Years of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident

Importance

Ultrasonographic (US) screening for thyroid cancer was performed in the Fukushima Health Management Survey after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident. Clinical characteristics of thyroid cancers screened by US among children and young adults during the first 5 years after the accident were analyzed.

Objectives

To evaluate the number of detected thyroid cancers by age group within 5 years of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident and to compare the basic clinical characteristics and demographic patterns in first- and second-round examinations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this observational study, 324 301 individuals 18 years or younger at the time of accident were included. Patients received a cytologic diagnosis of malignant or suspected malignant thyroid cancer during the first (fiscal years 2011-2013) or second round (fiscal years 2014-2015) of screening. Number of detected cases of cancer was evaluated, correcting for the number of examinees by age group at the time of the accident and for the incidence of detected cancers according to age group at the time of the screening (age groups were divided into 3-year intervals). Results were compared using the age-specific incidence of unscreened cancers from a national cancer registry.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Clinical baseline characteristics of the patients and the age-specific number and incidence of thyroid cancers detected during the second round.

Results

Among 299 905 individuals screened in the first round (50.5% male; mean [SD] age at screening, 14.9 [2.6] years), malignant or suspected thyroid cancer was diagnosed in 116. Among 271 083 individuals screened in the second round (50.4% male; age at screening, 12.6 [3.2] years), malignant or suspected thyroid cancer was diagnosed in 71. The most common pathologic diagnosis in surgical cases was papillary thyroid cancer (149 of 152 [98.0%]). The distribution pattern by age group at the time of the accident, where the number of detected thyroid cancer cases was corrected by the number of examinees, increased with older age in both screening rounds. This demographic pattern was similar between the first and second examinations. The distribution pattern of the incidence rate by age group at the time of screening in the second round also increased with older age. The incidence rate detected by screening was 29 cases per 100 000 person-years for those aged 15 to 17 years, 48 cases per 100 000 person-years for those aged 18 to 20 years, and 64 cases per 100 000 person-years for those aged 21 to 22 years.

Conclusions and Relevance

Large-scale mass US screening of young people resulted in the diagnosis of a number of thyroid cancers, with no major changes in overall characteristics within 5 years of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power station accident. These results suggest that US screening can identify many detectable cancers from a large pool of nonclinical and subclinical thyroid cancers among individuals of a relatively young age, in an age-dependent manner.