Trust in governments, public health institutions, and other information sources as determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake behavior in Japan

OBJECTIVES

Trust in governments and public institutions as a determinant of public health outcomes has gained increased attention since the COVID-19 pandemic. Provided historically low confidence in vaccines in Japan, investigating the role of trust in information sources and actual COVID-19 vaccination uptake behavior will be invaluable for future vaccine promotion policymaking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to elucidate the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination uptake and evaluate the relationship between trust in different information sources and COVID-19 vaccination behavior in Japan.

METHODS

For this study, we leveraged a longitudinal series of web-based surveys of 19,174 individuals in Japan conducted between 2021 and 2022 which asked questions regarding a wide range of sociodemographic and psychographic characteristics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Determinant analysis for vaccination (at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine) was conducted via multiple logistic regression, and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated.

RESULTS

After adjustment for sociodemographic determinants of vaccine uptake, aggregate trust in the systems and institutions of vaccine approval (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.30-1.56), and trust in information about the COVID-19 pandemic coming from government sources (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.12-1.44) were found to be consistently powerful predictors of COVID-19 vaccination. Trust in media sources including traditional media (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.07-1.36), and the internet (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.89) had significant and opposing effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the broader hypothesis that trust in governments and public health institutions remains a powerful determinant for COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Japan. We also found that vaccination decision-making is a multifactorial process that includes the synthesis of trust in public institutions and media, and its interaction with psychosocial determinants such as prosociality and health literacy. We hope to apply this study's findings towards future vaccine programs for contagious diseases.

Primary care clinic visits in formerly evacuated areas due to radiation disaster following the Great East Japan Earthquake: A retrospective descriptive study

Radiation disasters pose distinctive medical challenges, requiring diverse care approaches. Beyond radiation exposure assessment, addressing health impacts due to lifestyle changes, especially among vulnerable populations, is vital. Evacuation orders issued in radiation-affected areas introduce unique healthcare dynamics, with their duration significantly influencing the recovery process. Understanding evolving patient demographics and medical needs after lifting evacuation orders is crucial for post-disaster care planning. Minamisoma Municipal Odaka Hospital, located 13 to 20 km from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear power plant in a post-evacuation zone, was greatly affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent radiation disaster. Data were retrospectively collected from patient records, including age, gender, visit date, diagnoses, and addresses. Patient records from April 2014 to March 2020 were analyzed, comparing data before and after the July 2016 evacuation order lift. Data was categorized into pre and post-evacuation order lifting periods, using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Edition codes, to identify the top diseases. Statistical analyses, including χ-square tests, assessed changes in disease distributions. Population data for Odaka Ward and Minamisoma City fluctuated after lifting evacuation orders. As of March 11, 2011, Odaka Ward had 12,842 residents (27.8% aged 65+ years), dropping to 8406 registered residents and 2732 actual residents by April 30, 2018 (49.7%). Minamisoma City also saw declines, with registered residents decreasing from 71,561 (25.9%) to 61,049 (34.1%). The study analyzed 11,100 patients, mostly older patients (75.1%), between 2014 and 2020. Post-lifting, monthly patient numbers surged from an average of 55.2 to 213.5, with female patients increasing from 33.8% to 51.7%. Disease patterns shifted, with musculoskeletal cases declining from 23.8% to 13.0%, psychiatric disorders increasing from 9.3% to 15.4%, and trauma-related cases decreasing from 14.3% to 3.9%. Hypertension (57.1%) and dyslipidemia (29.2%) prevailed post-lifting. Urgent cases decreased from 1.3% to 0.1%. This study emphasizes the importance of primary care in post-evacuation zones, addressing diverse medical needs, including trauma, noncommunicable diseases, and psychiatric disorders. Changing patient demographics require adaptable healthcare strategies and resource allocation to meet growing demands. Establishing a comprehensive health maintenance system tailored to these areas' unique challenges is crucial for future disaster recovery efforts.

Public Attitudes toward the Final Disposal of Radioactively Contaminated Soil Resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident

Radioactively contaminated soil from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident in 2011 is required by law to be finally disposed of outside Fukushima Prefecture by 2045. To gain public acceptance of this policy, it is essential to promote understanding and nationwide discussion. We conducted a web-based survey of 2000 people in Japan to examine public attitudes toward final disposal of the contaminated soil outside Fukushima Prefecture. Results show that policy approval was negatively correlated with perceived risk of a final disposal site, sense of inequity associated with building a final disposal site near residential areas, and values that are absolutely non-negotiable or protected from trade-offs with other values (protected values). Policy approval was positively correlated with high levels of interest in the Fukushima accident and subjective knowledge of decontamination and the policy. Respondents' comments and opinions about the policy indicated that respondents who approved of the policy accepted burden sharing, while those who disapproved were unconvinced by the rationale behind disposal outside Fukushima Prefecture and were dissatisfied by the lack of information disclosure and transparency. While the government's efforts to disseminate information about the current status and future of Fukushima have been effective to a certain extent, they are insufficient to achieve widespread public understanding of the policy. Our results indicate that attention needs to be paid to procedural fairness and explanations of risks.

COVID-19 infection risk assessment and management at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games: A scoping review

The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games was one of the largest international mass-gathering events held after the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this scoping review, we extracted papers discussing COVID-19 risk assessment or management at the Tokyo 2020 Games to determine the nature of studies that were conducted. Among the 75 papers obtained from two search engines (PubMed and ScienceDirect) and four papers collected from hand-searches, 30 papers were extracted. Only eight papers performed both COVID-19 prior risk assessment and quantitative evaluation of effectiveness measures, highlighting the importance of rapid, solution-focused risk assessment. Furthermore, this review revealed that the findings regarding the spread of COVID-19 infection to citizens in the host country were inconsistent depending on the assessment methods and that assessments of the spread of infection outside the host country were lacking.

Maximum proportion of masks worn: Collaborative efforts in Japanese professional football

Mass gathering events in Japan have gradually mitigated their novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) control regulations, along with a minimum infection risk. The Japan Professional Football League (J.League) conducted pilot surveys on holding events with chant cheers. In this commentary, we introduce the collaborative efforts based on scientific knowledge among experts, J.League, and their fans. We performed risk assessment in advance, by updating a previously developed model. We further observed the average proportion of masks worn, chant cheering time of participants, and CO2 levels in the stand. The number of new COVID-19 cases in an event with 5,000 chant cheering participants and 35,000 non-chant cheering participants was estimated to be 1.02 times of an event, with 40,000 non-chant cheering participants. The average proportion of masks worn during the game was 98.9 %, for chant cheer participants. The chant cheering participants spent 50.0-51.1 % of their time chant cheering. Monitored average CO2 levels were ≤ 540 ppm, suggesting high ventilation rates in the stand. The high proportion of masks worn represents the willingness of norm-conscious fans to cooperate in regular recovery of the sport. This has proved to be one of the successful models for future mass gathering events.

Comparing the risks of environmental carcinogenic chemicals in Japan using the loss of happy life expectancy indicator

In this study, we aimed to use the loss of happy life expectancy (LHpLE), an indicator that enables risk assessment considering wellbeing, to compare the risks of environmental carcinogenic chemicals in Japan. First, we surveyed Japanese people to determine their emotional happiness by age and sex and evaluated whether cancer incidence reduced emotional happiness. Questionnaires were administered to a general population panel and a panel of patients with cancer in 2022, recruiting a predetermined number of responses of 5000 and 850, respectively. Second, using the survey data, LHpLE was calculated for radon, arsenic, and fine particulate matter (aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm; PM2.5) and compared to psychological distress, considering increased mortality and decreased emotional happiness due to these risks. We discovered no significant decrease in emotional happiness due to cancer incidence and no significant associations between emotional happiness and cancer type, history, or stage. LHpLE was calculated to be 6.4 × 10-3 years for radon, 2.6 × 10-3 years for arsenic, 1.1 × 10-2 years (2012 exposure) and 8.6 × 10-4 years (2020 exposure) for PM2.5, and 9.7 × 10-1 years for psychological distress. The fraction of losses caused by these carcinogenic chemicals to HpLE exceeded 10-5, suggesting that risk reduction for these chemicals is important in environmental policies. The LHpLE indicator allows for comparing different types of risks, such as environmental chemicals and psychological distress. This is the first study to compare chemical risks using the LHpLE indicator.

Japanese physicians' perceptions of conflicts of interest with pharmaceutical companies: Estimating two different questioning approaches

Despite being one of the world's largest pharmaceutical markets, interactions between Japanese physicians and pharmaceutical companies often remain opaque. Importantly, potential conflicts of interest associated with these interactions can compromise patient care and increase costs. We conducted an online survey of Japanese physicians to elucidate perspectives on pharmaceutical company promotional activities and how these influence physician prescribing patterns. Anticipating that physicians might downplay their reliance on, or the value of, pharmaceutical company-provided information, the survey incorporated a direct questioning method and an unmatched count technique (UCT) to identify hidden perceptions on factors likely to influence prescribing. Overall, 1080 eligible physicians participated. Of these, 105 (9.7%) self-identified as hospital directors or managers. Surprisingly, nearly twice as many participants responding to direct questioning (18.9%) versus those responding to the UCT (10.1%) asserted that information provided by pharmaceutical companies was important when prescribing medicine. Hospital directors or managers (adjusted odds ratio [adjOR] 2.56, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.00-6.54, reference = physician without title) and frequent interactions with pharmaceutical sales representatives (adjOR 5.96, 95% CI: 1.88-18.9, reference = rare interaction) significantly valued the information from sales representatives and sponsored lectures when considering prescribing decisions. Additionally, 77.1% of respondents believed that sales representatives provide fair, neutral, or relatively honest and unbiased information about their products. Few Japanese physicians acknowledged the influence of industry-provided information on prescribing patterns. Our study uniquely applies two distinct question formats, providing a novel approach to understanding the depth of physician-industry relationships and the effectiveness of various survey methodologies.

Exploratory study to characterise the individual types of health literacy and beliefs and their associations with infection prevention behaviours amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a longitudinal study

Background

During a global infectious disease pandemic such as the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), individuals' infection prevention/risk-taking behaviours are likely to differ depending on their health literacy and beliefs regarding the disease. To effectively promote infection prevention behaviours, it is necessary to enable information dissemination and risk communication that consider individuals' health literacy and beliefs. In this study, we exploratorily characterised segments based on individual health literacy and beliefs regarding COVID-19 among the Japanese during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, and investigated whether infection prevention/risk-taking behaviours and fear of COVID-19 differed among these segments.

Methods

In this study, we conducted two web-based longitudinal surveys in Japan (PHASE 1, 1-30 November 2020, 6,000 participants; PHASE 2, 1-31 December 2020, 3,800 participants). We characterised segments of the target population using cluster analysis on health literacy and beliefs regarding COVID-19 obtained in PHASE 1. We further investigated the associations between the clusters and infection prevention/risk-taking behaviours and fear of COVID-19, obtained from PHASE 2.

Results

Five clusters were identified: 'Calm/hoax denial', 'Hoax affinity/threat denial', 'Minority/indifference', 'Over vigilance', and 'Optimism'. There were significant differences in infection prevention/risk-taking behaviours and fear of COVID-19 among the five clusters. The belief in susceptibility to infection, rather than affinity for hoaxes and conspiracy theories, was coherently associated with infection prevention/risk-taking behaviours and fear of infection across clusters. This study provides foundational knowledge for creating segment-specific public messages and developing interactive risk communication to encourage infection prevention behaviours.

Categorization of disaster-related deaths in Minamisoma city after the Fukushima nuclear disaster using clustering analysis

The medical situation during disasters often differs from that at usual times. Disasters can lead to significant mortality that can be difficult to monitor. The types of disaster-related deaths are largely unknown. In this study, we conducted a survey to categorize the disaster-related deaths caused by a radiation disaster. A total of 520 people living in Minamisoma City, Fukushima Prefecture, at the time of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, who were certified to have died due to disaster-related causes were surveyed. We divided the participants into those who were at home at the time of the earthquake and those who were in hospitals or facilities when the disaster struck and conducted a hierarchical cluster analysis of the two groups. Disaster-related deaths could be divided into seven groups for those who were at home at the time of the disaster and five groups for those who were in hospitals or facilities at the time of the disaster. Each group showed different characteristics, such as "the group with disabilities," "the group receiving care," and "the group with depression," and it became evident that not only uniform post-disaster support, but support tailored to the characteristics of each group is necessary.

Disaster-related deaths with alcohol-related diseases after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident: case series

Introduction

The health of patients with mental disorders, such as alcohol-related diseases, often deteriorates after disasters. However, the causes of death among those with alcohol-related diseases during and after radiation disasters remain unclear.

Methods

To minimize and prevent alcohol-related deaths in future radiation disasters, we analyzed and summarized six cases of alcohol-related deaths in Minamisoma City, a municipality near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Results

Patients were generally treated for alcohol-related diseases. In one case, the patient was forced to evacuate because of hospital closure, and his condition worsened as he was repeatedly admitted and discharged from the hospital. In another case, the patient's depression worsened after he returned home because of increased medication and drinking for insomnia and loss of appetite.

Discussion

The overall findings revealed that, in many cases, evacuation caused diseases to deteriorate in the chronic phase, which eventually resulted in death sometime after the disaster. To mitigate loss of life, alcohol-related diseases must be addressed during the chronic phases of future large-scale disasters, including nuclear disasters.

The growing need to establish a global wastewater surveillance consortium for future pandemic preparedness

Recognizing the risk of pandemic and the importance of monitoring and data sharing, we highlight the importance of establishing a global wastewater surveillance consortium, particularly under the umbrella of an international organization such as WHO, to strengthen future pandemic preparedness.

Factors influencing acceptability of final disposal of incinerated ash and decontaminated soil from TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident

TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident prompted extensive decontamination work. The decontaminated soil and incinerated ash generated by the process are scheduled for final disposal by March 2045 outside Fukushima Prefecture. The final disposal is unprecedented worldwide. Clarifying their acceptability will contribute to the final disposal of decontaminated soil and incinerated ash, as well as add knowledge about the perceived risk of low-concentration radioactive waste. A questionnaire survey was conducted to assess the psychological factors influencing final disposal acceptability. The results of the structural equation modeling demonstrated stable results, with risk perception decreasing acceptability, social benefits increasing acceptability, and personal benefits having limited impact. The initiative for the final disposal of decontaminated soil and incinerated ash can facilitate the reconstruction of Fukushima Prefecture after the disaster. Trust and intergenerational expectations are critical factors influencing the acceptability of this disposal. The responses were classified based on the relevance of moral norms using cluster analysis and moral foundations. The influence of each element on acceptability varied depending on the cluster. Trust was identified as the most influential factor in acceptability, regardless of the level of importance placed on moral norms.

Proton and Carbon Ion Radiotherapy for Operable Early-Stage Lung Cancer: 3-Year Results of a Prospective Nationwide Registry

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

The purpose of this analysis was to report subset analysis as to progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) of particle-beam radiation therapy for operable early-stage lung cancer.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Patients of early-stage lung cancer (T1-T2aN0) who were eligible for radical surgery but did not wish to undergo surgery were treated by proton-ion (PT) or carbon-ion (CT) radiation therapy and enrolled in Japanese prospective registry. In this analysis, PFS and OS by clinical stage, tumor location, pathological confirmation and particle-ion type were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 274 patients were enrolled and included in efficacy and safety analyses. Most tumors were adenocarcinoma (44%), and 105 (38%) were not histologically confirmed and diagnosed clinically. 250 (91%) of 274 patients had tumors that were peripherally situated. 138 (50%) and 136 (50%) patients were treated by PT and CT, respectively. The median follow-up time for all censored patients was 42.8 months (IQR 36.7 - 49.0). No grade 3 or severe treatment-related toxicity was observed. 3-year PFS was 81% (95% CI;76-86) and OS was 93% (95% CI;89-96), respectively. As to particle-ion type, 3-year PFS were 79.0% and 81.9% in PT and CT (p = 0.19), and 3-year OS were 93.9% and 91.1% in PT and CT (P = 0.72), respectively. For PFS, pathological confirmation, clinical stage was significant factors but there were no significant differences by tumor location or particle-ion type; for OS, clinical stage was significant factor but there was no significant difference on pathological confirmation, tumor location or particle-ion type (Table1). Table 1. 3-year PFS and OS CONCLUSION: Particle therapy for operable early-stage lung cancer resulted in excellent 3-year OS and PFS on each subset.

Evidence for a liquid silicate layer atop the Martian core

Seismic recordings made during the InSight mission1 suggested that Mars's liquid core would need to be approximately 27% lighter than pure liquid iron2,3, implying a considerable complement of light elements. Core compositions based on seismic and bulk geophysical constraints, however, require larger quantities of the volatile elements hydrogen, carbon and sulfur than those that were cosmochemically available in the likely building blocks of Mars4. Here we show that multiply diffracted P waves along a stratified core-mantle boundary region of Mars in combination with first-principles computations of the thermoelastic properties of liquid iron-rich alloys3 require the presence of a fully molten silicate layer overlying a smaller, denser liquid core. Inverting differential body wave travel time data with particular sensitivity to the core-mantle boundary region suggests a decreased core radius of 1,675 ± 30 km associated with an increased density of 6.65 ± 0.1 g cm-3, relative to previous models2,4-8, while the thickness and density of the molten silicate layer are 150 ± 15 km and 4.05 ± 0.05 g cm-3, respectively. The core properties inferred here reconcile bulk geophysical and cosmochemical requirements, consistent with a core containing 85-91 wt% iron-nickel and 9-15 wt% light elements, chiefly sulfur, carbon, oxygen and hydrogen. The chemical characteristics of a molten silicate layer above the core may be revealed by products of Martian magmatism.

Differences in and associations between belief in just deserts and human rights restrictions over a 3-year period in five countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Discrimination, which arose during the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak, is a global public health issue. This study aimed to provide fundamental knowledge in proposing control measures to mitigate discrimination. We focused on two psychological variables: belief in just deserts (BJD, i.e., the belief that the infected individual deserves to be infected), a psychological factor that potentially promotes discrimination and prejudice, and human rights restrictions (HRR; i.e., the degree of individuals' agreement with government restrictions on citizens' behavior during emergencies). Differences in these items, as well as their annual trends from 2020 to 2022, were examined in Japan, the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Italy, and China. In addition, the associations between BJD and HRR by country and year and the direction of the associations between them in Japan and Italy were analyzed. Online surveys were conducted annually, with 392-518 participants per country and year. The BJD was higher in Japan and lower in the UK. BJD increased significantly from 2020 to 2021 in all countries, except in China. Meanwhile, HRR was higher in China and lower in Japan. The HRR decreased from 2020 to 2021 in Japan and decreased from 2020 to 2022 in the US, the UK, and Italy. There were significant positive associations between BJD and HRR in Japan and Italy. Cross-lagged panel models revealed positive bidirectional associations between BJD and HRR in Japan and Italy, respectively, indicating that the HRR declined among those with weak BJD and that the BJD increased among those with high HRR. In Japan and Italy, the dissemination of public messages targeting those with a high HRR in the early stages of an infectious disease outbreak could potentially mitigate the adverse impact of the BJD, eventually reducing discrimination, especially when the infection is not attributed to the fault of the infected individuals.

Quantifying the effect of isolation and negative certification on COVID-19 transmission

Isolation of close contact people and negative test certification are used to manage the spread of new coronavirus infections worldwide. These effectively prevent the spread of infection in advance, but they can lead to a decline in socio-economic activity. Thus, the present study quantified the extent to which isolation and negative test certification respectively reduce the risk of infection. To this end, a discrete-time SEIR model was used as the infectious disease model, and equations for calculating the conditional probability of non-infection status given negative test results on two different days were derived. Then the respective non-infection probabilities with two negative PCR test results, and with one negative PCR test result and one antigen test result, were quantified. By substituting initial parameters of the SEIR model into these probabilities, the present study revealed the following: (1) isolating close contact individuals can reduce by [Formula: see text] the risk of infection during the first 5 days, but five more days are needed to reduce the risk [Formula: see text] more, and seven more days to reduce the risk [Formula: see text] more; and (2) if an individual with a negative PCR test result has a negative antigen test result the next day, then his or her infection probability is between 0.6 and [Formula: see text]. Our results show that 5-day isolation has a proportionally greater effect on risk reduction, compared to longer isolation; and thus, if an isolation period of longer than 5 days is contemplated, both the risk reduction and the negative effects from such increased isolation should be considered. Regarding negative test certification, our results provide those in managerial positions, who must decide whether to accept the risk and hold mass-gathering events, with quantitative information that may be useful in their decision-making.

Scientific consensus views are useful, but dangerous, without a code of ethics

Using the Fukushima accident experience, this letter discusses recent efforts on measuring scientific consensus views-that is, quantifying the agreement among scientists. In the field of radiological protection, the efforts to measure scientific consensus views deserve attention, because hoaxes have been spreading even after the Fukushima nuclear accident. We discussed two points. First, the visualization of the diversity of scientific opinions shatters the diversity illusion caused by the mass media's irresponsible dissemination of pro and con arguments. Second, the use of scientific consensus views without an ethical code is dangerous. Measuring scientific consensus views should be accompanied with the development of ethical guidelines on using it.

Long-term uptake rate of a breast cancer screening program in Fukushima, Japan, following the 2011 Triple Disaster: a retrospective observational study

Little is known about how crises might affect the long-term uptake of breast cancer screening programs. This study aimed to clarify the long-term trend of breast cancer screening program uptake in Minamisoma City following the 2011 Triple Disaster in Fukushima, Japan (earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster), and to evaluate the factors associated with this uptake. This study retrospectively analyzed data from the Basic Resident Registry and Breast Cancer Screening Program in Minamisoma City following the Triple Disaster. We calculated the annual breast cancer screening uptake rate for women aged 40-74 years who were of an even-numbered age at the end of each fiscal year and the incidence of at least one instance of uptake of the breast cancer screening initiative during the biennial intervals. We further performed cross-sectional and longitudinal regression analyses for the biannual screening uptake and investigated its associated factors. Breast cancer screening participation rates were 19.8% and 18.2% in 2009 and 2010, respectively. They decreased to 4.2% in 2011, and gradually increased thereafter, reaching the pre-disaster level of 20.0% in 2016. Similar but longer decrease of the uptake was observed in the biannual screening uptake rate. No pre-disaster screening uptake between 2009 and 2010, those living alone, or those who were evacuated, were factors that were found to be associated with non-uptake of the breast cancer screening program following the 2011 disaster. This study showed a long-term decline in breast cancer screening uptake in the area affected by the Triple Disaster, which was the most severe among those under evacuation, those who were isolated, and those without previous uptake. The insights emerging from this study could be used to increase awareness of this issue and establish potential countermeasures.

Wastewater-based prediction of COVID-19 cases using a highly sensitive SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection method combined with mathematical modeling

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has the potential to predict COVID-19 cases; however, reliable methods for tracking SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations (C_RNA) in wastewater are lacking. In the present study, we developed a highly sensitive method (EPISENS-M) employing adsorption-extraction, followed by one-step RT-Preamp and qPCR. The EPISENS-M allowed SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection from wastewater at 50 % detection rate when newly reported COVID-19 cases exceed 0.69/100,000 inhabitants in a sewer catchment. Using the EPISENS-M, a longitudinal WBE study was conducted between 28 May 2020 and 16 June 2022 in Sapporo City, Japan, revealing a strong correlation (Pearson's r = 0.94) between C_RNA and the newly COVID-19 cases reported by intensive clinical surveillance. Based on this dataset, a mathematical model was developed based on viral shedding dynamics to estimate the newly reported cases using C_RNA data and recent clinical data prior to sampling day. This developed model succeeded in predicting the cumulative number of newly reported cases after 5 days of sampling day within a factor of √2 and 2 with a precision of 36 % (16/44) and 64 % (28/44), respectively. By applying this model framework, another estimation mode was developed without the recent clinical data, which successfully predicted the number of COVID-19 cases for the succeeding 5 days within a factor of √2 and 2 with a precision of 39 % (17/44) and 66 % (29/44), respectively. These results demonstrated that the EPISENS-M method combined with the mathematical model can be a powerful tool for predicting COVID-19 cases, especially in the absence of intensive clinical surveillance.

Sensitivity of the Kβ″ X-ray Emission Line to Coordination Changes in GeO2 and TiO2

The hard X-ray Kβ″ emission line shows sensitivity with respect to a wide range of cation-ligand coordination, which we investigate in the cases of GeO₂ and TiO₂ on the basis of ab initio spectral calculations on amorphous and crystalline structures. In compressed amorphous GeO₂, the sampling of a large number of instantaneous coordination polyhedra from an ab initio molecular dynamics trajectory reveals that the functional relation between the Kβ″ shift and coordination is close to linear between 4-fold and 7-fold coordination. A similar sensitivity of the Kβ″ emission line exists in the coordination range between six and nine of crystalline high-pressure TiO₂ polymorphs. Our results demonstrate the potential of the Kβ″ emission line in research on the structure of amorphous oxide material.

Sensitivity of rapid antigen tests for COVID-19 during the Omicron variant outbreak among players and staff members of the Japan Professional Football League and clubs: a retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

Rapid antigen tests have been used to prevent the spread of the COVID-19; however, there have been concerns about their decreased sensitivity to the Omicron variant. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity and specificity of the rapid antigen test compared with the PCR test among the players and staff members of the Japan Professional Football League and clubs. Furthermore, we evaluated the relationship between the sensitivity and the duration from the onset of symptoms to testing or vaccine status.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective observational study.

METHODS

We used 656 results from both the rapid antigen and PCR tests for COVID-19 using samples collected on the same day from 12 January to 2 March 2022, during the Omicron variant outbreak in Japan.

RESULTS

The sensitivity of the rapid antigen test compared with the PCR test was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.73) and the specificity was 0.998 (95% CI: 0.995 to 1.000). There were no significant associations between the sensitivity and the duration from the onset of symptoms to testing (including asymptomatic cases in the category) or vaccination status (p>0.05) with small effect sizes (Cramer's V or φ: ≤0.22).

CONCLUSIONS

Even during the Omicron outbreak, the sensitivity of the rapid antigen tests did not depend on the duration from the onset of symptoms to testing.

Annual prevalence of non-communicable diseases and identification of vulnerable populations following the Fukushima disaster and COVID-19 pandemic

Disasters, pandemics, and their response measures can have secondary effects on the physical and psychological health of affected populations. Using health insurance receipt data from 2009 to 2020, we assessed changes in the prevalence of major non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and mental disorders, among affected populations before and after the Fukushima disaster and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Japan. Furthermore, age and sex groups with the largest increases in prevalence after these events were identified. The participants of this study were employees of large companies and their dependent family members who were insured by health insurance societies (HIS). The dataset was provided by JMDC Inc. The annual age-adjusted prevalence of each disease belonging to the HIS scheme was used to calculate the ratio of disease prevalence before and after the events. After the Fukushima disaster, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes generally increased over a 9-year period in Fukushima Prefecture. The increase in the prevalence rate of these three NCDs and mental disorders was the highest among females aged 40-74 years compared to males and the other age groups. The prevalence of all four diseases increased after the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, with a marked increase in males aged 0-39 years. Changes in prevalence ratios of NCDs after the COVID-19 outbreak among the areas affected by the Fukushima disaster were lower than in the whole of Japan. It is important to provide tailor-made public health support among populations in accordance with the type of disasters and pandemic.

Belief in just deserts regarding individuals infected with COVID-19 in Japan and its associations with demographic factors and infection-related and socio-psychological characteristics: a cross-sectional study

Prejudice related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a social issue worldwide. A possible psychological factor that promotes prejudice is the belief in just deserts (BJD) regarding individuals infected with COVID-19 (i.e., the belief that the infected individual deserves to be infected). The BJD is based on the belief in immanent justice. It is reportedly higher in Japan than in other countries. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study to investigate the BJD among Japanese individuals and clarify its associations with demographic factors or infection-related and socio-psychological characteristics. To this end, we conducted an online questionnaire survey in Japan from August 7-8, 2020, with 1,207 respondents aged 20-69 years. We performed screening to exclude inappropriate responses. We investigated the association between the BJD and demographic factors such as gender and age. We also investigated the association between the BJD and infection-related and socio-psychological characteristics, including risk perception of COVID-19 infection and human rights restrictions (i.e., the degree of agreement with government restrictions on individuals' behavior during emergencies). Among the surveyed items, human rights restrictions showed a strong association with BJD, followed by risk perception of COVID-19 infection. Men had a slightly higher BJD than women. Our study is significant in that it is the first to investigate the items associated with the BJD, thereby providing foundational information for revising individual perceptions of justice related to COVID-19 and solving prejudice-related issues.

The detectability and removal efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 in a large-scale septic tank of a COVID-19 quarantine facility in Japan

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is known to be present in sewage, and wastewater-based epidemiology has attracted much attention. However, the physical partitioning of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and the removal efficiency of treatment systems require further investigation. This study aimed to investigate the detectability and physical partitioning of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and assess its removal in a large-scale septic tank employing anaerobic, anoxic, and oxic processes in a sequential batch reactor, which was installed in a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quarantine facility. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater was determined with polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and the association of SARS-CoV-2 with wastewater solids was evaluated by the effect of filtration prior to PEG precipitation (pre-filtration). The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected from pre-filtered samples was substantially lower than that of samples without pre-filtration. These results suggest that most SARS-CoV-2 particles in wastewater are associated with the suspended solids excluded by pre-filtration. The removal efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 in the septic tank was evaluated based on the SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in untreated and treated wastewater, which was determined by the detection method optimized in this study. Escherichia coli and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) were also quantified to validate the wastewater treatment system's performance. The mean log₁₀ reduction values of SARS-CoV-2, E. coli, and PMMoV were 2.47 (range, 2.25-2.68), 2.81 (range, 2.45-3.18), and 0.66 (range, 0.61-0.70), respectively, demonstrating that SARS-CoV-2 removal by the wastewater treatment system was comparable to or better than the removal of fecal indicators. These results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 can be readily removed by the septic tank. This is the first study to determine the removal efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 in a facility-level sequencing batch activated sludge system.

Preventive Behaviors and Information Sources during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-Sectional Study in Japan

BACKGROUND

individual preventive behaviors are one of the key measures needed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. This study sought to identify the factors associated with the adoption of COVID-19 preventive measures, focusing specifically on information sources.

METHODS

we conducted a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of 30,053 Japanese adults in February 2021. The survey asked about socioeconomic, health-related, and psychological characteristics, attitudes toward immunization, and the use of information sources regarding COVID-19. We have constructed multivariable logistic regression to estimate the factors associated with the adoption of three preventive measures: 3Cs avoidance, hand hygiene and respiratory hygiene.

RESULTS

socioeconomic variables, psychological variables, and the use of information sources are significantly associated with the adoption of preventive measures. The more information sources one uses, the more likely one is to adopt preventive measures. Trust in healthcare professionals is positively associated with adopting preventive measures. On the other hand, negative correlations between trust in social media and preventive behaviors were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

encouraging access to multiple information sources, utilizing communication channels, and modifying messaging according to target groups are essential to promote COVID-19 preventive measures.

Occurrence and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in a Sub-Catchment of the Yodo River Basin, Japan

The occurrence of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in a sub-catchment of the Yodo River Basin, a representative water system of a drinking water source in Japan, was investigated. The chromogenic enzyme-substrate medium method was used for the detection of S. aureus and MRSA by the presence or absence of antimicrobials in the medium for viable bacteria in a culture-based setting. The contributions of S. aureus and MRSA from wastewater to the rivers were estimated based on mass flux-based analysis, and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was further conducted for S. aureus and MRSA in river environments. The mean abundance of S. aureus and MRSA was 31 and 29 CFU/mL in hospital effluent, 124 and 117 CFU/mL in sewage treatment plant (STP) influent, 16 and 13 CFU/mL in STP effluent, and 8 and 9 CFU/mL in river water, respectively. Contribution of the pollution load derived from the target STP effluent to river water ranged from 2% to 25%. The QMRA showed that to achieve the established health benchmarks, the drinking water treatment process would need to yield 1.7 log₁₀ and 2.9 log₁₀ inactivation in terms of infection risk and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) indexes, respectively. These findings highlight the link between medical environment and the importance of environmental risk management for antimicrobial-resistant bacteria in aquatic environments.

Factors associated with reversals of COVID-19 vaccination willingness: Results from two longitudinal, national surveys in Japan 2021-2022

BACKGROUND

Research characterizing changes of heart with respect to vaccine intention is scarce, and very little research considers those who were initially vaccine willing but became hesitant. Here, we sought to assess the factors related to reversals of vaccine willingness.

METHODS

We conducted a longitudinal, national survey on vaccination intention among Japanese adults aged 20 years or older, with the first questionnaire performed in February-March 2021 (N = 30,053) and the follow-up in February 2022 (N = 19,195, response rate 63.9%). The study population comprised those who reported vaccine willingness in the first survey, with the outcome variable being development of vaccine hesitancy at follow-up. We performed a regression analysis of vaccination status using sociodemographic, health-related, psychologic/attitudinal, and information-related variables as predictors. We used the sparse group minimax concave penalty (MCP) to select the optimum group of covariates for the logistic regression.

FINDINGS

Of 11,118 (57.9%) respondents who previously expressed interest in vaccination, 10,684 (96.1%) and 434 (3.9%) were in the vaccine willing and hesitant groups, respectively. Several covariates were found to significantly predict vaccine hesitancy, including marital status, influenza vaccine history, COVID-19 infection/testing history, engagement in COVID-19 preventive measures, perceived risks/benefits of the COVID-19 vaccine, and attitudes regarding vaccination policies and norms. The use of certain information sources was also associated with vaccine hesitancy.

INTERPRETATION

Sociodemographic, health-related, psychologic/attitudinal, and information-related variables predicted the development of vaccine hesitancy among those with prior willingness. Most of these predictors were also associated with vaccination status.

FUNDING

The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Kanagawa Prefectural Government of Japan and by AIST government subsidies.

Characterising reasons for reversals of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy among Japanese people: One-year follow-up survey

BACKGROUND

Vaccine hesitancy is a global public health threat. We present unique data that characterises those who experienced reversals of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy in Japan.

METHODS

We administered a questionnaire on vaccination intention among 30053 Japanese adults aged 20 years or older before the COVID-19 vaccination was available to the general population (first survey) and conducted a follow-up survey on vaccination status one year later in February 2022 (second survey). Those who responded in the first survey that they did not intend to be vaccinated or were unsure and then responded in the second survey that they were vaccinated or intend to be vaccinated were asked about the reasons for their change of heart. Based on previous literature and expert opinion, 31 reasons for changing vaccination intention were compiled and respondents were asked to choose which among them applied to themselves, with multiple responses possible. Based on the results of those responses, each individual was then clustered using the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) dimensionality reduction technique and Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm. We then identified unique characteristics among each of the sub-populations (clusters).

FINDINGS

In the second survey we received 19195 responses (response rate 63.9%), of which 8077 responded 'no' or 'not sure' in the first survey regarding their intention to be vaccinated. Of these, 5861 responded having received or intending to receive the vaccine (72.6%). We detected six and five sub-populations (clusters) among the 'no' group and 'not sure' group, respectively. The clusters were characterized by perceived benefits of vaccination, including the COVID-19 vaccine, awareness of the COVID-19 vaccination status of those close to them, recognition of the social significance of COVID-19 vaccination for the spread of infection, and dispelled concerns about short-term adverse reactions and the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine. Work and personal relationship reasons were also found to be a unique overarching reason for vaccination changes of heart only among those who did not intend to vaccinate.

INTERPRETATION

Those who changed their intention to accept COVID-19 vaccination as well as their unique characteristics as detailed in this study will be important entry points when discussing how to promote vaccination to those who are hesitant to vaccinate in the future.

FUNDING

The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Kanagawa Prefectural Government of Japan and by AIST government subsidies.

Development of a COVID-19 risk assessment model for participants at outdoor music festivals: evaluation of the validity and control measure effectiveness based on two actual events in Japan and Spain

We developed an environmental exposure model to estimate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk among participants at outdoor music festivals and validated the model using two real events-one in Japan (Event 1) and one in Spain (Event 2). Furthermore, we considered a hypothetical situation in which Event 1 was held but enhanced measures were implemented to evaluate the extent to which the risk could be reduced by additional infection control measures, such as negative antigen tests on the day of the event, wearing of masks, disinfection of environmental surfaces, and vaccination. Among 7,392 participants, the total number of already- and newly-infected individuals who participated in Event 1 according to the new model was 47.0 (95% uncertainty interval: 12.5-185.5), which is in good agreement with the reported value (45). The risk of infection at Event 2 (1.98 × 10^-2; 95% uncertainty interval: 0.55 × 10^-2-6.39 × 10^-2), calculated by the model in this study, was also similar to the estimated value in the previous epidemiological study (1.25 × 10^-2). These results for the two events in different countries highlighted the validity of the model. Among the additional control measures in the hypothetical Event 1, vaccination, mask-wearing, and disinfection of surfaces were determined to be effective. Based on the combination of all measures, a 94% risk reduction could be achieved. In addition to setting a benchmark for an acceptable number of newly-infected individuals at the time of an event, the application of this model will enable us to determine whether it is necessary to implement additional measures, limit the number of participants, or refrain from holding an event.

Assessment of COVID-19 risk and prevention effectiveness among spectators of mass gathering events

There is a need to evaluate and minimize the risk of novel coronavirus infections at mass gathering events, such as sports. In particular, to consider how to hold mass gathering events, it is important to clarify how the local infection prevalence, the number of spectators, the capacity proportion, and the implementation of preventions affect the infection risk. In this study, we used an environmental exposure model to analyze the relationship between infection risk and infection prevalence, the number of spectators, and the capacity proportion at mass gathering events in football and baseball games. In addition to assessing risk reduction through the implementation of various preventive measures, we assessed how face-mask-wearing proportion affects infection risk. Furthermore, the model was applied to estimate the number of infectors who entered the stadium and the number of newly infected individuals, and to compare them with actual reported cases. The model analysis revealed an 86-95% reduction in the infection risk due to the implementation of face-mask wearing and hand washing. Under conditions in which vaccine effectiveness was 20% and 80%, the risk reduction rates of infection among vaccinated spectators were 36% and 96%, respectively. Among the individual measures, face-mask wearing was particularly effective, and the infection risk increased as the face-mask-wearing proportion decreased. A linear relationship was observed between infection risk at mass gathering events and the infection prevalence. Furthermore, the number of newly infected individuals was also dependent on the number of spectators and the capacity proportion independent of the infection prevalence, confirming the importance of considering spectator capacity in infection risk management. These results highlight that it is beneficial for organisers to ensure prevention compliance and to mitigate or limit the number of spectators according to the prevalence of local infection. Both the estimated and reported numbers of newly infected individuals after the events were small, below 10 per 3-4 million spectators, despite a small gap between these numbers.

Association of SARS-CoV-2 Load in Wastewater With Reported COVID-19 Cases in the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Village From July to September 2021

This cross-sectional study assesses the association between SARS-CoV-2 load in wastewater and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Village.

Important factors for public acceptance of the final disposal of contaminated soil and wastes resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident

Large-scale decontamination work has been carried out in the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident in Japan in 2011. The soil that was removed and the wastes that were generated during the decontamination will be finally disposed of outside Fukushima Prefecture by 2045. To ensure successful and socially acceptable implementation of this final disposal process, it is essential to have a good understanding of what is considered important by the public. We used a choice-based conjoint analysis in the form of a web-based questionnaire to examine the relative importance of several factors in the choice of the final disposal sites of the removed soil and incinerated ash of the wastes. The questionnaires covered four attributes and 12 levels, namely the distance between the disposal site and a person’s residential area, procedural fairness (decision process), distributive fairness (direct mitigation of inequity through multiple siting locations), and the volume and radioactivity of the substances to be disposed. Responses were received from 4000 people nationwide, excluding Fukushima residents. The results showed that the respondents gave high importance to choosing sites that were far from residential areas and to the two types of fairness, especially distributive fairness. The respondents showed no preference for the volume and radioactivity. This indicates that the public cares about the fairness of the siting for the final disposal sites and feels uncomfortable with plans for a final disposal site located close to them. Distributive fairness is necessary to pursue consensus in addition to procedural fairness.

Development of an Application for Sustainable Support of Returning Residents Displaced by the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

We developed a mobile application (app) to help communication between support providers and residents who have returned from evacuation after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Surveys were conducted among returning residents and support providers in coastal areas of Fukushima Prefecture, from which application functions and layout were decided. App functions were included to estimate external exposure, monitor health, and facilitate interactive health counseling.

COVID-19 wastewater surveillance implemented in the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Village

Wastewater-based epidemiology was implemented in the Olympic and Paralympic Village to better understand COVID-19 incidence. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in a number of wastewater samples even when no positive individual was identified in the corresponding areas. Wastewater-based epidemiology can be a useful tool to control infections at mass gatherings.

OP0008 A NOVEL SITE-SPECIFIC PEGYLATED IL-2 WITH POTENT AND TREG-SELECTIVE ACTIVITY IN VIVO

Background

Decreased regulatory T cells (Tregs) and Treg dysfunction are hallmarks of a various autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. While low-dose IL-2 therapy induces Treg expansion in vivo and has clinical benefits in some diseases (e.g., SLE and chronic graft-versus-host disease [GvHD]), there are many concerns about adverse events due to low Treg-selectivity. Furthermore, frequent dosing is needed due to the short half-life.

Objectives

We discovered a novel site-specific PEGylated IL-2 variant, KKC80, with high Treg selectivity and a long half-life in vivo, which overcomes the issues of low-dose IL-2 therapy.

Methods

Based on the co-crystal structure of wild-type IL-2 and its heterotrimeric receptor (PBD ID: 2ERJ), amino acid residues that were to be PEGylation sites were substituted with oAzZLys, an azide-containing lysine derivative. The PEG molecule was site-specifically attached to oAzZLys-incorporated IL-2 by copper-free click chemistry. The binding property to the IL-2 receptors were measured by surface plasmon resonance (SPR). In vitro, Treg selectivity was evaluated by the IL-2-dependent proliferation activity of Tregs and NK cells from human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). In vivo pharmacological activity after the single subcutaneous administration in cynomolgus monkeys was measured by changes in Treg count and Treg activation status in peripheral blood by flow cytometry. Pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated according to serum PEGylated IL-2 concentration. Efficacy in mouse xenogeneic GvHD model using human PBMC-transplanted NOG mice and in monkey DTH model were evaluated.

Results

A novel PEGylated IL-2, KKC80 (human IL-2 desA1/C125S /I129oAzZLys_W-shaped 80 kDa PEG) was discovered by optimizing the PEGylation site and PEG structure based on Treg selectivity and PK. SPR analysis showed that the binding affinity of KKC80 to CD25 was moderately decreased from wild-type IL-2, while binding affinity of KKC80 to IL-2Rβγ was remarkably decreased due to a significant change of the association rate constant. In vitro, wild-type IL-2 activated both Tregs and NK cells in the same concentration range, whereas KKC80 selectively activated Tregs. The Treg selectivity of KKC80 was comparable to another IL-2 mutein, Fc.IL-2 V91K. KKC80, but not Fc.IL-2 V91K, retained its biological activity, even in the presence of a large amount of recombinant soluble CD25, which mimicked the endogenous decoy receptor for IL-2. In monkeys, KKC80 selectively increased peripheral blood Tregs in a dose-dependent manner; the average maximum rate of increase of Treg count in animals treated with 0.01, 0.03, 0.1, 0.3 and 1 mg/kg was 1.5, 3.5, 28, 50 and 154-fold, respectively. In contrast to Tregs, the rates of increase of conventional CD4+ T, CD8+ T and NK cells were low. The Treg increase peaked on day 8 or 11 and lasted for over day 29. KKC80 showed a more sustained upregulation of functional Treg markers (e.g., Foxp3 and CD25) in comparison to Fc.IL-2 V91K. The half-life of KKC80 was calculated as 83.5 to 150 h. At high doses, inflammation-related adverse effects, including increased CRP (≥0.3 mg/kg) and deterioration of general conditions (1 mg/kg) were observed. In the mouse xenogenic GvHD model, KKC80 ameliorated GvHD symptoms and suppressed multiple tissue inflammation markers. Decreased soluble CD25 and IFN-γ were also confirmed, suggesting Treg-mediated anti-inflammatory effect by KKC80 administration were exerted in vivo. In the monkey DTH model, KKC80 suppressed skin inflammation and antibody production.

Conclusion

Among next-generation IL-2 variants, KKC80 showed a best-in-class biological profile for Treg activation. A drastic and sustained increase of Tregs with high Treg-selectivity and anti-inflammatory effects were observed in vivo. These data suggest that in comparison to current IL-2 therapy, KKC80 provides superior therapeutic index and efficacy in patients with autoimmune and inflammatory diseases.

Figure 1.

Disclosure of Interests

Masahiro Ikeda Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Shinpei Yamaguchi Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Masumi Murakami Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Shigeki Takaoka Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Yasuko Sakaguchi Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Shunki Yasui Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Kousuke Iijima Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Kenichiro Nanya Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Hideyuki Onodera Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Toru Amano Employee of: Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.

Differences in Data Trustworthiness and Risk Perception between Bar Graphs and Pictograms

We investigated whether differences in presentation style affect risk perception, understanding, preference, and trust toward data. One hundred and sixty Fukushima Medical University students were shown the lifetime probability of breast cancer incidence for a 50-year-old woman, presented in both a pictogram and a horizontal bar graph format. Participants rated each of the following on a five-point scale by looking at each figure: risk perception, perceived truth of data, and comparative risk perception. The perceived truth of data was high for pictograms, especially among men and among those defined as having lower health literacy. Women correctly perceived the risk of breast cancer as higher than that of dying in a car accident when the data were presented on a pictogram. There was no difference in risk perception, perceived truth of data, or comparative risk perception arising from being shown the bar graphs and the pictograms in a particular order. There was a 50/50 split on which type of graph was perceived as easier to understand, but the preference was for the pictogram format. It is important to devise a visual method of health communication that considers the purpose of the information and characteristics of the target audience.

Was there an improvement in the years of life lost (YLLs) for non-communicable diseases in the Soma and Minamisoma cities of Fukushima after the 2011 disaster? A longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine cause-specific years of life lost (YLL) changes between predisaster and postdisaster in disaster-affected municipalities, compared with the national average. We estimated the YLL in Soma and Minamisoma cities (the subject area) in Fukushima, Japan, where the tsunami and the nuclear accident hit in 2011.

PARTICIPANTS

We used vital registration records from a national survey conducted between January 2006 and December 2015. We analysed 6369 death data in the predisaster period (2006-2010) and 6258 death data in the postdisaster period (2011-2015).

METHODS

We incorporated vital statistics data as follows: age-based, sex-based and International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision-based cause-specific deaths and calculated YLLs by ages 0, 40, 65 and 75 and sex for attributable causes of death for heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pneumonia, all cancers and specific cancers; breast cancer, colorectal cancer, leukaemia, lung cancer, stomach cancer and uterine cancer for predisaster and postdisaster in the subject area.

RESULTS

YLL attributed to heart diseases for males showed no decrease and YLL postdisaster was 0.37 years larger than that of the national average at age 0. The difference was -0.17 (95% uncertainty interval: -0.40 to 0.05) years at age 65. It decreased for females; the difference was 0.37 (0.18-0.57) years after the disaster. YLL decrease (that is, difference) in cerebrovascular diseases at age 0 was 0.27 (0.09-0.44) years and 0.18 (0.04-0.32) years; however, the YLLs postdisaster were still 0.24 and 0.25 years larger than those for the national average for males and females, respectively. YLL attributed to cancer did not increase even after the nuclear disaster.

CONCLUSIONS

We specified the causes of death to be reduced in disaster-affected areas in the future. This study emphasised the importance of understanding how the health situation changed for the whole society of the area from a comprehensive perspective, rather than focusing only on small mortality increases.

Effects of test timing and isolation length to reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection associated with airplane travel, as determined by infectious disease dynamics modeling

Effective measures to reduce the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in overseas travelers are urgently needed. However, the effectiveness of current testing and isolation protocols is not yet fully understood. Here, we examined how the timing of testing and the number of tests conducted affect the spread of COVID-19 infection associated with airplane travel. We used two mathematical models of infectious disease dynamics to examine how different test protocols changed the density of infected individuals traveling by airplane and entering another country. We found that the timing of testing markedly affected the spread of COVID-19 infection. A single test conducted on the day before departure was the most effective at reducing the density of infected individuals travelling; this effectiveness decreased with increasing time before departure. After arrival, immediate testing was found to overlook individuals infected on the airplane. With respect to preventing infected individuals from entering the destination country, isolation with a single test on day 7 or 8 after arrival was comparable with isolation only for 11 or 14 days, respectively, depending on the model used, indicating that isolation length can be shortened with appropriately timed testing.

Factors associated with the risk perception of COVID-19 infection and severe illness: A cross-sectional study in Japan

Understanding COVID-19 risk perception may help inform public health messaging aimed at encouraging preventive measures and improving countermeasures against the pandemic. We conducted an online survey of 29,708 Japanese adults in February 2021 and estimated the associations between COVID-19 risk perception and a broad array of individual factors. Two logistic regressions were constructed to estimate factors associated with the risk perception of COVID-19 (defined as responding that one might become infected within the next 6 months), and of severe illness among those who responded that they might become infected (defined as responding that one would become severely ill). After adjusting for covariates, those with a higher perceived risk of the COVID-19 vaccine had higher odds of risk perception for both infection and severe illness. Interestingly, those with higher odds of risk perception of being infected were more likely to report obtaining their information from healthcare workers whereas those with lower odds were more likely to report obtaining their information from the Internet or the government; those with lower odds of risk perception of being severely ill were more likely to report obtaining their information from the Internet. The higher the trust level in the government as a COVID-19 information source, the lower the odds of both risk perception of being infected and becoming severely ill. The higher the trust levels in social networking services as a COVID-19 information source, the higher the odds of risk perception of becoming severely ill. Public health messaging should address the factors identified in our study.

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Perceived risks of a COVID-19 vaccine was related to risk perception of COVID-19 infection and severe illness.

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Getting information from healthcare workers was related to higher risk perception of infection.

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Higher trust in SNS was related to higher risk perception of COVID-19 of severe illness.

COVID-19 testing systems and their effectiveness in small, semi-isolated groups for sports events

In this study, we quantitatively assessed the effectiveness of systems for COVID-19 testing in small groups of sport teams that are semi-isolated from the general population by countermeasures against infection. Two types of group were assumed, and the dynamics of infection within each group was modeled by using a compartment model of infectious disease. One group (Group A) comprised domestic professional sports teams that play many games over a season while remaining within a relatively small region. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests were routinely conducted once every 2 weeks, and the number of infected individuals that could not be quarantined after identification by testing or checking for symptoms was defined as the risk. The other group (Group B) comprised teams that travel across borders for mass-gathering events like the Olympic and Paralympic Games. The teams were isolated for 2 weeks at their destination; frequent testing and checking for symptoms was conducted, and any infected individuals were quarantined. The number of infected individuals participating in games after the isolation period was defined as the risk. In Group A, the number of infected individuals detected by routinely conducted PCR testing was lower than the number of infected individuals detected by checking for symptoms, indicating that routine testing every 2 weeks was not very effective. In Group B, daily PCR testing was the most effective, followed by daily antigen testing. Dual testing, in which individuals with a positive antigen test were given an additional PCR test, was the least effective with an effect equal to PCR testing every other day. These results indicate that repeated testing does not necessarily increase the detection of infected individuals.