Early hemodynamic variables and outcome in severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective single-center cohort study

Serum Albumin-Creatinine Ratio and Anthracycline Cardiotoxicity in Patients with Cancer

Background: Several studies have suggested that the serum albumin-creatinine ratio (sACR) is a useful marker for the early risk stratification of patients with cardiomyocyte injury. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between sACR and anthracycline-related cardiotoxicity. Methods: This study included patients who had received anthracycline-based chemotherapy between 2014 and 2023 and had undergone baseline and follow-up echocardiography after the treatment. The level of sACR was calculated using serum albumin and creatinine values obtained before the chemotherapy. The definition of cardiotoxicity was based on the criteria of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) for ejection fraction and the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) for diastolic dysfunction. The patients were categorized into either the high or low sACR group based on the cut-off value obtained from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: In total, 525 patients (159 males, 366 females) were included. Multivariate analysis after adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), cardiovascular disease, hemoglobin, anthracycline dose, and gender showed that sACR (HR = 1.85% 95 CI 1.12 to 3.06 p = 0.016), cardiovascular disease (HR = 1.97% 95 CI 1.08 to 3.61 p = 0.027), BMI (HR = 1.86% 95 CI 1.12 to 3.10 p = 0.017), and age (HR = 1.02% 95 CI 1.001 to 1.04 p = 0.036) were significantly associated with an increased risk of cardiotoxicity. Conclusions: This study is the first to show a significant relationship between sACR and cardiotoxicity related to anthracycline use. Routine laboratory tests that are conducted before anthracycline therapy can aid clinicians in identifying high-risk patients who may require closer follow-up or cardioprotective measures.

Association of serum albumin-to-creatinine ratio with in-hospital mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The serum albumin-to-serum creatinine ratio (sACR) is independently associated with the prognosis of multiple diseases. However, its relationship with in-hospital mortality of patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) remains unclear.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with SAP between April 2016 and December 2023 were collected. These patients were categorized into low and high sACR groups based on an optimal cut-off value calculated using Youden's index. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to examine the relationship between sACR levels and the in-hospital mortality. Additionally, a limited restricted cubic spline (RCS) method was employed to evaluate the nonlinear relationship between sACR values and the risk of in-hospital mortality. The potential for unmeasured confounders between sACR levels and in-hospital mortality was also explored through the calculation of the E value.

RESULTS

A total of 114 eligible patients were included in this sutdy. The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated an independent association between sACR levels and in-hospital mortality (p < 0.001). The RCS analysis demonstrated a linear correlation between sACR values and the risk of in-hospital mortality (P for non-linearity > 0.05), where the risk increased as the sACR value decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

The research findings suggest that sACR levels are independently associated with in-hospital mortality of patients with SAP, providing a means for early identification of those at high risk of in-hospital mortality. This early identification may facilitate the optimizing and strengthening of treatments, ultimately leading to improved outcomes.

Interpretable prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis based on machine learning and SHAP

BACKGROUND

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can be fatal if left unrecognized and untreated. The purpose was to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting the 30-day all-cause mortality risk in SAP patients and to explain the most important predictors.

METHODS

This research utilized six ML methods, including logistic regression (LR), k-nearest neighbors(KNN), support vector machines (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), random forests(RF), and extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost), to construct six predictive models for SAP. An extensive evaluation was conducted to determine the most effective model and then the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was applied to visualize key variables. Utilizing the optimized model, stratified predictions were made for patients with SAP. Further, the study employed multivariable Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival curves, along with subgroup analysis, to explore the relationship between the machine learning-based score and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Through LASSO regression and recursive feature elimination (RFE), 25 optimal feature variables are selected. The XGBoost model performed best, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.881, a sensitivity of 0.5714, a specificity of 0.9651 and an F1 score of 0.64. The first six most important feature variables were the use of vasopressor, high Charlson comorbidity index, low blood oxygen saturation, history of malignant tumor, hyperglycemia and high APSIII score. Based on the optimal threshold of 0.62, patients were divided into high and low-risk groups, and the 30-day survival rate in the high-risk group decreased significantly. COX regression analysis further confirmed the positive correlation between high-risk scores and 30-day mortality. In the subgroup analysis, the model showed good risk stratification ability in patients with different gender, renal replacement therapy and with or without a history of malignant tumor, but it was not effective in predicting peripheral vascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

the XGBoost model effectively predicts the severity of SAP, serving as a valuable tool for clinicians to identify SAP early.

Tactics of infusion therapy in patients with acute destructive pancreatitis: a narrative review

INTRODUCTION: Infusion therapy is the main method of correcting pathological changes that occur during the phase of “aseptic” inflammation in acute pancreatitis. OBJECTIVE: Summarize current data on infusion therapy regimens in patients with acute destructive pancreatitis, the advisability of using various infusion solutions and options for monitoring the effectiveness of therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was carried out in accordance with international reporting requirements for reviews (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses). The search was carried out in the following Internet search engines Pubmed and Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Register. To select articles, a literature reference search method was also used. The search strategy did not include restrictions on language, article type, or date. RESULTS: The analysis of literature data revealed two approaches to infusion therapy. The initial interest in “aggressive (4 liters per day or more)” infusion therapy regimens in the first 24 hours of the disease has now been replaced by a trend towards less “aggressive” regimens due to the publication of works on the high incidence of various complications (progression of organ dysfunction, local complications). When considering the qualitative composition of infusion therapy, preference should certainly be given to crystalloids. Basic monitoring of infusion therapy should include non-invasive methods: heart rate, blood pressure, diuresis rate. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis demonstrated different approaches to the tactics of infusion therapy in this category of patients. further research into the effectiveness and safety of infusion therapy, taking into account the varying severity of acute pancreatitis, the possibility of the influence of the qualitative composition of the infusion on the course of this disease and the formation of recommendations for initial and maintenance infusion therapy based on the principles of personalized medicine.

Clinical treatment for persistent inflammation, immunosuppression and catabolism syndrome in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (Review)

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is a severe disease with a high prevalence and a 3-15% mortality worldwide, and premature activation of zymogen for any reason is the initial factor for the onset of SAP. Gallstone disease and heavy alcohol consumption are the two most common etiologies of SAP. Persistent inflammation, immunosuppression and catabolism syndrome (PICS) is a life-threatening illness, and there are no effective treatments. The relapse state of PICS mainly leads to high mortality due to septic shock or severe trauma, both of which are dangerous and challenging conditions for clinicians. Thus, it is important for medical staff to identify patients at high risk of PICS and to master the prevention and treatment of PICS in patients with SAP. The present review aims to increase the understanding of the pathogenesis of PICS, produce evidence for PICS diagnosis and highlight clinical treatment for PICS in patients with SAP. With this information, clinical workers could implement standardized and integrated measures at an early stage of SAP to stop its progression to PICS.

Intravenous fluid therapy in patients with severe acute pancreatitis admitted to the intensive care unit: a narrative review

Patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) often require ICU admission, especially when signs of multiorgan failure are present, a condition that defines AP as severe. This disease is characterized by a massive pancreatic release of pro-inflammatory cytokines that causes a systemic inflammatory response syndrome and a profound intravascular fluid loss. This leads to a mixed hypovolemic and distributive shock and ultimately to multiorgan failure. Aggressive fluid resuscitation is traditionally considered the mainstay treatment of AP. In fact, all available guidelines underline the importance of fluid therapy, particularly in the first 24–48 h after disease onset. However, there is currently no consensus neither about the type, nor about the optimal fluid rate, total volume, or goal of fluid administration. In general, a starting fluid rate of 5–10 ml/kg/h of Ringer’s lactate solution for the first 24 h has been recommended. Fluid administration should be aggressive in the first hours, and continued only for the appropriate time frame, being usually discontinued, or significantly reduced after the first 24–48 h after admission. Close clinical and hemodynamic monitoring along with the definition of clear resuscitation goals are fundamental. Generally accepted targets are urinary output, reversal of tachycardia and hypotension, and improvement of laboratory markers. However, the usefulness of different endpoints to guide fluid therapy is highly debated. The importance of close monitoring of fluid infusion and balance is acknowledged by most available guidelines to avoid the deleterious effect of fluid overload. Fluid therapy should be carefully tailored in patients with severe AP, as for other conditions frequently managed in the ICU requiring large fluid amounts, such as septic shock and burn injury. A combination of both noninvasive clinical and invasive hemodynamic parameters, and laboratory markers should guide clinicians in the early phase of severe AP to meet organ perfusion requirements with the proper administration of fluids while avoiding fluid overload. In this narrative review the most recent evidence about fluid therapy in severe AP is discussed and an operative algorithm for fluid administration based on an individualized approach is proposed.

Usefulness of Random Forest Algorithm in Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to develop an interpretable random forest model for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

Clinical and laboratory data of 648 patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively reviewed and randomly assigned to the training set and test set in a 3:1 ratio. Univariate analysis was used to select candidate predictors for the SAP. Random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) models were developed on the training sample. The prediction models were then applied to the test sample. The performance of the risk models was measured by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) and area under precision recall curve. We provide visualized interpretation by using local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME).

RESULTS

The LR model was developed to predict SAP as the following function: -1.10-0.13×albumin (g/L) + 0.016 × serum creatinine (μmol/L) + 0.14 × glucose (mmol/L) + 1.63 × pleural effusion (0/1)(No/Yes). The coefficients of this formula were utilized to build a nomogram. The RF model consists of 16 variables identified by univariate analysis. It was developed and validated by a tenfold cross-validation on the training sample. Variables importance analysis suggested that blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, albumin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, calcium, and glucose were the most important seven predictors of SAP. The AUCs of RF model in tenfold cross-validation of the training set and the test set was 0.89 and 0.96, respectively. Both the area under precision recall curve and the diagnostic accuracy of the RF model were higher than that of both the LR model and the BISAP score. LIME plots were used to explain individualized prediction of the RF model.

CONCLUSIONS

An interpretable RF model exhibited the highest discriminatory performance in predicting SAP. Interpretation with LIME plots could be useful for individualized prediction in a clinical setting. A nomogram consisting of albumin, serum creatinine, glucose, and pleural effusion was useful for prediction of SAP.

Cardiac depression in severe acute pancreatitis: development mechanisms and possible treatment approaches. Review

Cardiac depression, also known as myocardial depression, is one of the typical complications of severe acute pancreatitis. The review describes modern views on the mechanism of development of this phenomenon; the place of the term «myocardial depression factor» at the current stage of study of the problem was discussed; pathogenetic factors of myocardial depression requiring further study have been identified. An attempt to consider cardiac depression as a phenomenon involving the whole cardiovascular system, rather than the heart along, was made. Each pathophysiological factor is examined in terms of the possibility of clinical use.

The impact of fluid resuscitation via colon on patients with severe acute pancreatitis

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is a life-threatening disease. Fluid Resuscitation Via Colon (FRVC) may be a complementary therapy for early controlled fluid resuscitation. But its clinical application has not been reported. This study aims to explore the impact of FRVC on SAP. All SAP patients with the first onset within 72 h admitted to the hospital were included from January 2014 to December 2018 through electronic databases of Ruijin hospital and were divided into FRVC group (n = 103) and non-FRVC group (n = 78). The clinical differences before and after the therapy between the two groups were analyzed. Of the 181 patients included in the analysis, the FRVC group received more fluid volume and reached the endpoint of blood volume expansion ahead of the non-FRVC group. After the early fluid resuscitation, the inflammation indicators in the FRVC group were lower. The rate of mechanical ventilation and the incidence of hypernatremia also decreased significantly. Using pure water for FRVC was more helpful to reduce hypernatremia. However, Kaplan-Meier 90-day survival between the two groups showed no difference. These results suggest that the combination of FRVC might benefit SAP patients in the early stage of fluid resuscitation, but there is no difference between the prognosis of SAP patients and that of conventional fluid resuscitation. Further prospective study is needed to evaluate the effect of FRVC on SAP patients.

The Association Between Arterial Oxygen Level and Outcome in Neurocritically Ill Patients is not Affected by Blood Pressure

Background

In neurocritically ill patients, one early mechanism behind secondary brain injury is low systemic blood pressure resulting in inadequate cerebral perfusion and consequent hypoxia. Intuitively, higher partial pressures of arterial oxygen (PaO₂) could be protective in case of inadequate cerebral circulation related to hemodynamic instability.

Study purpose

We examined whether the association between PaO₂ and mortality is different in patients with low compared to normal and high mean arterial pressure (MAP) in patients after various types of brain injury.

Methods

We screened the Finnish Intensive Care Consortium database for mechanically ventilated adult (≥ 18) brain injury patients treated in several tertiary intensive care units (ICUs) between 2003 and 2013. Admission diagnoses included traumatic brain injury, cardiac arrest, subarachnoid and intracranial hemorrhage, and acute ischemic stroke. The primary exposures of interest were PaO₂ (recorded in connection with the lowest measured PaO₂/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio) and the lowest MAP, recorded during the first 24 h in the ICU. PaO₂ was grouped as follows: hypoxemia (< 8.2 kPa, the lowest 10th percentile), normoxemia (8.2–18.3 kPa), and hyperoxemia (> 18.3 kPa, the highest 10th percentile), and MAP was divided into equally sized tertiles (< 60, 60–68, and > 68 mmHg). The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. We tested the association between hyperoxemia, MAP, and mortality with a multivariable logistic regression model, including the PaO₂, MAP, and interaction of PaO₂*MAP, adjusting for age, admission diagnosis, premorbid physical performance, vasoactive use, intracranial pressure monitoring use, and disease severity. The relationship between predicted 1-year mortality and PaO₂ was visualized with locally weighted scatterplot smoothing curves (Loess) for different MAP levels.

Results

From a total of 8290 patients, 3912 (47%) were dead at 1 year. PaO₂ was not an independent predictor of mortality: the odds ratio (OR) for hyperoxemia was 1.16 (95% CI 0.85–1.59) and for hypoxemia 1.24 (95% CI 0.96–1.61) compared to normoxemia. Higher MAP predicted lower mortality: OR for MAP 60–68 mmHg was 0.73 (95% CI 0.64–0.84) and for MAP > 68 mmHg 0.80 (95% CI 0.69–0.92) compared to MAP < 60 mmHg. The interaction term PaO₂*MAP was nonsignificant. In Loess visualization, the relationship between PaO₂ and predicted mortality appeared similar in all MAP tertiles.

Conclusions

During the first 24 h of ICU treatment in mechanically ventilated brain injured patients, the association between PaO₂ and mortality was not different in patients with low compared to normal MAP.

Supplementary Information

The online version of this article (10.1007/s12028-020-01178-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prognostic value of the creatinine-albumin ratio in acute pancreatitis debridement

Background

Increases in the levels of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and creatinine (Cr) and decreases in those of albumin (Alb) are commonly observed in acute pancreatitis (AP). We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the Cr/Alb and CRP/Alb ratios in the prediction of surgical treatment effect in AP patients.

Methods

This study retrospectively analyzed clinical data obtained from 140 AP patients who underwent debridement from January 2008 to November 2018 in Shanghai Ruijin Hospital. The Cr/Alb and CRP/Alb ratios at admission and before surgery were assessed in the analysis of clinical statistics, prediction of prognoses, and logistic regression analysis.

Results

The admission Cr/Alb had the best predictive value of the four ratios. This value was significantly higher in patients with re-operation and those who died (P < 0.05) and was correlated with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score, admission CRP/Alb, preoperative Cr/Alb, and post-operative complications. The admission Cr/Alb could predict the risk of AP-related re-operation and mortality with sensitivities, specificities and areas under the curve of 86.3%, 61.7% and 0.824, and 73.4%, 81.3% and 0.794, respectively. At a cut-off value of 3.43, admission Cr/Alb values were indicative of a worse clinical state, including impaired laboratory test values, APACHE II scores, rates of post-operative complications and re-operation, and mortality (P < 0.05). In the logistic regression analysis, admission Cr/Alb values were independently related to the APACHE II score, post-operative renal failure, and mortality.

Conclusion

Cr/Alb is a novel but promising, easy-to-measure, reproducible, non-invasive prognostic score for the prediction of the effect of debridement in AP patients.

High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, Blood Urea Nitrogen, and Serum Creatinine Can Predict Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Early prediction of disease severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) would be helpful for triaging patients to the appropriate level of care and intervention. The aim of the study was to develop a model able to predict Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

A total of 647 patients with AP were enrolled. The demographic data, hematocrit, High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-C) determinant at time of admission, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN), and serum creatinine (Scr) determinant at time of admission and 24 hrs after hospitalization were collected and analyzed statistically.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression indicated that HDL-C at admission and BUN and Scr at 24 hours (hrs) were independently associated with SAP. A logistic regression function (LR model) was developed to predict SAP as follows: -2.25-0.06 HDL-C (mg/dl) at admission + 0.06 BUN (mg/dl) at 24 hours + 0.66 Scr (mg/dl) at 24 hours. The optimism-corrected c-index for LR model was 0.832 after bootstrap validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for LR model for the prediction of SAP was 0.84.

CONCLUSIONS

The LR model consists of HDL-C at admission and BUN and Scr at 24 hours, representing an additional tool to stratify patients at risk of SAP.

Atlanta, revised Atlanta, and Determinant-based classification--application in a cohort of Portuguese patients with acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) represents a complex and potentially fatal disease with a highly variable clinical course. Three classification systems for assessing the severity in AP have been validated for clinical use.

AIMS

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the performance of the Atlanta and Determinant-based classifications in predicting severe clinical outcomes in patients with AP.

METHODS

In this retrospective study we reviewed the treatment and follow-up records of 525 patients with AP admitted to our unit between the years of 2003 and 2014. Outcomes included mortality, admission to the ICU, need for interventional procedures or nutritional support, and duration of hospital and ICU stay.

RESULTS

The prevalence of organ failure and persistent organ failure in our cohort was 23.0 and 10.7%, respectively, and the mortality rate was 5.9%. Higher grades of severity were associated with worse outcomes in all classification systems. The revised Atlanta and Determinant-based classifications performed similarly in predicting outcomes, and both proved to be superior to the former classic Atlanta classification.

CONCLUSION

Recent classifications proved to be more accurate in predicting important clinical outcomes in patients with AP.

Beneficial effects of fluid resuscitation via the rectum on hemodynamic disorders and multiple organ injuries in an experimental severe acute pancreatitis model

OBJECTIVES

Exaggerated hydration is harmful for patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and it can increase mortality rate. In this study, we investigated the role of fluid resuscitation via the rectum (FRVR) on the hemodynamic state and compared FRVR with intravenous fluid resuscitation (IVFR) on resuscitation effect and organ function in an early stage of SAP.

METHODS

We studied whether FRVR corrects hemodynamic disorders at an early stage of SAP in Spraque-Dawley (SD) rats and whether it mitigates organ dysfunction and whether FRVR is superior to IVFR.

RESULTS

In both IVFR and FRVR groups, we observed a rebound in the mean arterial pressure (MAP) after 5 h and 6 h of administration (p < 0.05), respectively. MAP of the FRVR group reached the same level as the SHAM group at the end of the treatment, with hematocrit declining compared with the non-fluid resuscitation (NFR) group (p < 0.05). A concomitant increase in abdominal ascites and the lung wet/dry ratio by IVFR was depressed in the FRVR group (p < 0.05). Liver function was ameliorated in both fluid resuscitation groups (p < 0.05), consistent with histopathological improvement. TNF-α in serum and MPO in the lungs and jejunum of the FRVR group were lower than the IVFR group (p < 0.05). Pancreas histopathological injuries were ameliorated by both IVFR and FRVR (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggested FRVR is a potential supplementary method for fluid management in an early stage of SAP and FRVR should be studied further.

Effects of programed emergency care in patients with severe acute pancreatitis

AIM: To evaluate the effects of programed emergency care in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

METHODS: Fifty-eight patients with severe acute pancreatitis treated from January 2013 to December 2013 at our hospital were included in an observation group to implement programed emergency care, and 55 patients with severe acute pancreatitis treated from January 2012 to December 2012 at our hospital were included in a control group to receive routine emergency care. The length of hospital stay after intervention, satisfaction to nursing care, Karnofsky performance status (KPS) and Spitzer quality of life score were compared for the two groups.

RESULTS: In the observation group, 39 (67.2%) cases were very satisfied, 18 (31.0%) satisfied, and 1 (1.7%) not satisfied with the nursing care. The corresponding figures in the control group were 23 (41.8%), 25 (45.5%), and 7 (12.7%), respectively. There were significant differences between the two groups (P < 0.05). The length of hospital stay was significantly shorter in the observation group than in the control group (15.4 d ± 2.2 d vs 21.4 d ± 4.6 d, P < 0.01). KPS score was significantly higher in the observation group (76.9 ± 14.3 vs 61.4 ± 10.2, P < 0.01), and the scores of all dimensions of the quality of life scale were significantly higher in the observation group (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION: Implementation of programed emergency nursing care in patients with severe acute pancreatitis can significantly reduce hospital stay and improve patient's satisfaction to nursing work, patient's health status, and quality of life.