Determinants of HIV-1 transmission in men who have sex with men: a combined clinical, epidemiological and phylogenetic approach

Bayesian mixture models for phylogenetic source attribution from consensus sequences and time since infection estimates

In stopping the spread of infectious diseases, pathogen genomic data can be used to reconstruct transmission events and characterize population-level sources of infection. Most approaches for identifying transmission pairs do not account for the time passing since the divergence of pathogen variants in individuals, which is problematic in viruses with high within-host evolutionary rates. This prompted us to consider possible transmission pairs in terms of phylogenetic data and additional estimates of time since infection derived from clinical biomarkers. We develop Bayesian mixture models with an evolutionary clock as a signal component and additional mixed effects or covariate random functions describing the mixing weights to classify potential pairs into likely and unlikely transmission pairs. We demonstrate that although sources cannot be identified at the individual level with certainty, even with the additional data on time elapsed, inferences into the population-level sources of transmission are possible, and more accurate than using only phylogenetic data without time since infection estimates. We apply the proposed approach to estimate age-specific sources of HIV infection in Amsterdam tranamission networks among men who have sex with men between 2010 and 2021. This study demonstrates that infection time estimates provide informative data to characterize transmission sources, and shows how phylogenetic source attribution can then be done with multi-dimensional mixture models.

Epidemic characteristics of local HIV-2 transmission across Hunan province, China

OBJECTIVE

To elucidate the epidemiological features of HIV-2 in Hunan Province, China, utilizing sequence analysis.

METHODS

Thirteen individuals diagnosed with HIV-2 infection in Hunan Province, China, from 2017 to 2023 were included in this study. Amplification of HIV-2 env and pol regions was conducted, followed by Sanger sequencing. Phylogenetic and molecular transmission network analyses were performed to delineate molecular features and transmission dynamics.

RESULTS

All 14 individuals contracted HIV-2 through heterosexual intercourse, comprising 7 males and 7 females, with a median age of 58 years. Among them, three couples (HN001 and HN013, HN010 and HN011, HN008 and HN009) were identified, along with commercial sexual activity engagement reported for subject HN004. Notably, subjects HN001, HN003, HN008, and HN010 engaged in commercial sexual activities at the same location as subject HN004. Phylogenetic analysis of the pol gene revealed close proximity of sequences from all subjects to reference sequences from Gambia (Sub-type A). Employing a genetic distance threshold of 1.5 %, eight out of the 14 subjects formed a molecular transmission network, with HN002 and HN004 identified as central nodes.

CONCLUSION

From 2017 to 2023, all HIV-2-infected individuals in Hunan Province, China, acquired the virus through identifiable routes, indicating transmission of similar HIV-2 strains among them.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted, while HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programs to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Graph-Based Reconstruction and Analysis of Disease Transmission Networks Using Viral Genomic Data

Understanding the patterns of viral disease transmissions helps establish public health policies and aids in controlling and ending a disease outbreak. Classical methods for studying disease transmission dynamics that rely on epidemiological data, such as times of sample collection and duration of exposure intervals, struggle to provide desired insight due to limited informativeness of such data. A more precise characterization of disease transmissions may be acquired from sequencing data that reveal genetic distance between viral genomes in patient samples. Indeed, genetic distance between viral strains present in hosts contains valuable information about transmission history, thus motivating the design of methods that rely on genomic data to reconstruct a directed disease transmission network, detect transmission clusters, and identify significant network nodes (e.g., super-spreaders). In this article, we present a novel end-to-end framework for the analysis of viral transmissions utilizing viral genomic (sequencing) data. The proposed framework groups infected hosts into transmission clusters based on the reconstructed viral strains infecting them; the genetic distance between a pair of hosts is calculated using Earth Mover's Distance, and further used to infer transmission direction between the hosts. To quantify the significance of a host in the transmission network, the importance score is calculated by a graph convolutional autoencoder. The viral transmission network is represented by a directed minimum spanning tree utilizing the Edmond's algorithm modified to incorporate constraints on the importance scores of the hosts. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art techniques for the analysis of viral transmission dynamics in several experiments on semiexperimental as well as experimental data.

Recombination smooths the time signal disrupted by latency in within-host HIV phylogenies

Within-host Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolution involves several features that may disrupt standard phylogenetic reconstruction. One important feature is reactivation of latently integrated provirus, which has the potential to disrupt the temporal signal, leading to variation in the branch lengths and apparent evolutionary rates in a tree. Yet, real within-host HIV phylogenies tend to show clear, ladder-like trees structured by the time of sampling. Another important feature is recombination, which violates the fundamental assumption that evolutionary history can be represented by a single bifurcating tree. Thus, recombination complicates the within-host HIV dynamic by mixing genomes and creating evolutionary loop structures that cannot be represented in a bifurcating tree. In this paper, we develop a coalescent-based simulator of within-host HIV evolution that includes latency, recombination, and effective population size dynamics that allows us to study the relationship between the true, complex genealogy of within-host HIV evolution, encoded as an ancestral recombination graph (ARG), and the observed phylogenetic tree. To compare our ARG results to the familiar phylogeny format, we calculate the expected bifurcating tree after decomposing the ARG into all unique site trees, their combined distance matrix, and the overall corresponding bifurcating tree. While latency and recombination separately disrupt the phylogenetic signal, remarkably, we find that recombination recovers the temporal signal of within-host HIV evolution caused by latency by mixing fragments of old, latent genomes into the contemporary population. In effect, recombination averages over extant heterogeneity, whether it stems from mixed time signals or population bottlenecks. Furthermore, we establish that the signals of latency and recombination can be observed in phylogenetic trees despite being an incorrect representation of the true evolutionary history. Using an approximate Bayesian computation method, we develop a set of statistical probes to tune our simulation model to nine longitudinally sampled within-host HIV phylogenies. Because ARGs are exceedingly difficult to infer from real HIV data, our simulation system allows investigating effects of latency, recombination, and population size bottlenecks by matching decomposed ARGs to real data as observed in standard phylogenies.

Insights into HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics Using Routinely Collected Data in the Mid-Atlantic United States

Background: Molecular epidemiological approaches provide opportunities to characterize HIV transmission dynamics. We analyzed HIV sequences and virus load (VL) results obtained during routine clinical care, and individual’s zip-code location to determine utility of this approach. Methods: HIV-1 pol sequences aligned using ClustalW were subtyped using REGA. A maximum likelihood (ML) tree was generated using IQTree. Transmission clusters with ≤3% genetic distance (GD) and ≥90% bootstrap support were identified using ClusterPicker. We conducted Bayesian analysis using BEAST to confirm transmission clusters. The proportion of nucleotides with ambiguity ≤0.5% was considered indicative of early infection. Descriptive statistics were applied to characterize clusters and group comparisons were performed using chi-square or t-test. Results: Among 2775 adults with data from 2014−2015, 2589 (93%) had subtype B HIV-1, mean age was 44 years (SD 12.7), 66.4% were male, and 25% had nucleotide ambiguity ≤0.5. There were 456 individuals in 193 clusters: 149 dyads, 32 triads, and 12 groups with ≥ four individuals per cluster. More commonly in clusters were males than females, 349 (76.5%) vs. 107 (23.5%), p < 0.0001; younger individuals, 35.3 years (SD 12.1) vs. 44.7 (SD 12.3), p < 0.0001; and those with early HIV-1 infection by nucleotide ambiguity, 202/456 (44.3%) vs. 442/2133 (20.7%), p < 0.0001. Members of 43/193 (22.3%) of clusters included individuals in different jurisdictions. Clusters ≥ four individuals were similarly found using BEAST. HIV-1 viral load (VL) ≥3.0 log10 c/mL was most common among individuals in clusters ≥ four, 18/21, (85.7%) compared to 137/208 (65.8%) in clusters sized 2−3, and 927/1169 (79.3%) who were not in a cluster (p < 0.0001). Discussion: HIV sequence data obtained for HIV clinical management provide insights into regional transmission dynamics. Our findings demonstrate the additional utility of HIV-1 VL data in combination with phylogenetic inferences as an enhanced contact tracing tool to direct HIV treatment and prevention services. Trans-jurisdictional approaches are needed to optimize efforts to end the HIV epidemic.

Recent HIV Infection: Diagnosis and Public Health Implications

The early period of infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been associated with higher infectiousness and, consequently, with more transmission events. Over the last 30 years, assays have been developed that can detect viral and immune biomarkers during the first months of HIV infection. Some of them depend on the functional properties of antibodies including their changing titers or the increasing strength of binding with antigens over time. There have been efforts to estimate HIV incidence using antibody-based assays that detect recent HIV infection along with other laboratory and clinical information. Moreover, some interventions are based on the identification of people who were recently infected by HIV. This review summarizes the evolution of efforts to develop assays for the detection of recent HIV infection and to use these assays for the cross-sectional estimation of HIV incidence or for prevention purposes.

Epidemiological and viral characteristics of undiagnosed HIV infections in Botswana

Background

HIV-1 is endemic in Botswana. The country’s primary challenge is identifying people living with HIV who are unaware of their status. We evaluated factors associated with undiagnosed HIV infection using HIV-1 phylogenetic, behavioural, and demographic data.

Methods

As part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, 20% of households in 30 villages were tested for HIV and followed from 2013 to 2018. A total of 12,610 participants were enrolled, 3596 tested HIV-positive at enrolment, and 147 participants acquired HIV during the trial. Extensive socio-demographic and behavioural data were collected from participants and next-generation sequences were generated for HIV-positive cases. We compared three groups of participants: (1) those previously known to be HIV-positive at enrolment (n = 2995); (2) those newly diagnosed at enrolment (n = 601) and (3) those who tested HIV-negative at enrolment but tested HIV-positive during follow-up (n = 147). We searched for differences in demographic and behavioural factors between known and newly diagnosed group using logistic regression. We also compared the topology of each group in HIV-1 phylogenies and used a genetic diversity-based algorithm to classify infections as recent (< 1 year) or chronic (≥ 1 year).

Results

Being male (aOR = 2.23) and younger than 35 years old (aOR = 8.08) was associated with undiagnosed HIV infection (p < 0.001), as was inconsistent condom use (aOR = 1.76). Women were more likely to have undiagnosed infections if they were married, educated, and tested frequently. For men, being divorced increased their risk. The genetic diversity-based algorithm classified most incident infections as recent (75.0%), but almost none of known infections (2.0%). The estimated proportion of recent infections among new diagnoses was 37.0% (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our results indicate that those with undiagnosed infections are likely to be young men and women who do not use condoms consistently. Among women, several factors were predictive: being married, educated, and testing frequently increased risk. Men at risk were more difficult to delineate. A sizeable proportion of undiagnosed infections were recent based on a genetic diversity-based classifier. In the era of “test and treat all”, pre-exposure prophylaxis may be prioritized towards individuals who self-identify or who can be identified using these predictors in order to halt onward transmission in time.

Quantifying rates of HIV-1 flow between risk groups and geographic locations in Kenya: A country-wide phylogenetic study

In Kenya, HIV-1 key populations including men having sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and female sex workers (FSW) are thought to significantly contribute to HIV-1 transmission in the wider, mostly heterosexual (HET) HIV-1 transmission network. However, clear data on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between these groups are limited. We aimed to empirically quantify rates of HIV-1 flow between key populations and the HET population, as well as between different geographic regions to determine HIV-1 'hotspots' and their contribution to HIV-1 transmission in Kenya. We used maximum-likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian inference to analyse 4058 HIV-1 pol sequences (representing 0.3 per cent of the epidemic in Kenya) sampled 1986-2019 from individuals of different risk groups and regions in Kenya. We found 89 per cent within-risk group transmission and 11 per cent mixing between risk groups, cyclic HIV-1 exchange between adjoining geographic provinces and strong evidence of HIV-1 dissemination from (i) West-to-East (i.e. higher-to-lower HIV-1 prevalence regions), and (ii) heterosexual-to-key populations. Low HIV-1 prevalence regions and key populations are sinks rather than major sources of HIV-1 transmission in Kenya. Targeting key populations in Kenya needs to occur concurrently with strengthening interventions in the general epidemic.

Outcomes of a community-led online-based HIV self-testing demonstration among cisgender men who have sex with men and transgender women in the Philippines during the COVID-19 pandemic: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The Philippines, which has the fastest rising HIV epidemic globally, has limited options for HIV testing and its uptake remains low among cisgender men who have sex with men (cis-MSM) and transgender women (TGW), especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic. As HIV self-testing (HIVST) and technology-based approaches could synergize to expand uptake of HIV testing, we aimed to evaluate the outcomes of a community-led online-based HIVST demonstration and to explore factors associated with HIVST-related behaviours and outcomes.

METHODS

We did a secondary data analysis among cis-MSM and TGW who participated in the HIVST demonstration, who were recruited online and tested out-of-facility, in Western Visayas, Philippines, from March to November 2020. We reviewed data on demographics, sexuality-, and context-related variables. Using multivariable logistic regression, we tested for associations between the aforementioned covariates and two primary outcomes, opting for directly-assisted HIVST (DAH) and willingness to secondarily distribute kits.

RESULTS

HIVST kits were distributed to 647 individuals (590 cis-MSM, 57 TGW), 54.6% were first-time testers, 10.4% opted DAH, and 46.1% were willing to distribute to peers. Reporting rate was high (99.3%) with 7.6% reactivity rate. While linkage to prevention (100%) and care (85.7%) were high, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) (0.3%) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) (51.0%) initiation were limited. There were no reports of adverse events. Those who were employed, had recent anal intercourse, opted for DAH, not willing to secondarily distribute, and accessed HIVST during minimal to no quarantine restriction had significantly higher reactivity rates. Likelihood of opting for DAH was higher among those who had three or more partners in the past year (aOR = 2.01 [CI = 1.01-4.35]) and those who accessed during maximal quarantine restrictions (aOR = 4.25 [CI = 2.46-7.43]). Odds of willingness to share were higher among those in urban areas (aOR = 1.64 [CI = 1.15-2.36]) but lower among first-time testers (aOR = 0.45 [CI = 0.32-0.62]).

CONCLUSIONS

HIVST could effectively reach hard-to-reach populations. While there was demand in accessing online-based unassisted approaches, DAH should still be offered. Uptake of PrEP and same-day ART should be upscaled by decentralizing these services to community-based organizations. Differentiated service delivery is key to respond to preferences and values of key populations amid the dynamic geographical and sociocultural contexts they are in.

Phylogenetic prioritization of HIV-1 transmission clusters with viral lineage-level diversification rates

Background and objectives

Public health officials faced with a large number of transmission clusters require a rapid, scalable and unbiased way to prioritize distribution of limited resources to maximize benefits. We hypothesize that transmission cluster prioritization based on phylogenetically derived lineage-level diversification rates will perform as well as or better than commonly used growth-based prioritization measures, without need for historical data or subjective interpretation.

Methodology

9822 HIV pol sequences collected during routine drug resistance genotyping were used alongside simulated sequence data to infer sets of phylogenetic transmission clusters via patristic distance threshold. Prioritized clusters inferred from empirical data were compared to those prioritized by the current public health protocols. Prioritization of simulated clusters was evaluated based on correlation of a given prioritization measure with future cluster growth, as well as the number of direct downstream transmissions from cluster members.

Results

Empirical data suggest diversification rate-based measures perform comparably to growth-based measures in recreating public heath prioritization choices. However, unbiased simulated data reveals phylogenetic diversification rate-based measures perform better in predicting future cluster growth relative to growth-based measures, particularly long-term growth. Diversification rate-based measures also display advantages over growth-based measures in highlighting groups with greater future transmission events compared to random groups of the same size. Furthermore, diversification rate measures were notably more robust to effects of decreased sampling proportion.

Conclusions and implications

Our findings indicate diversification rate-based measures frequently outperform growth-based measures in predicting future cluster growth and offer several additional advantages beneficial to optimizing the public health prioritization process.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Drug Resistance, Phylogenetic Analysis, and Superinfection Among Men Who Have Sex with Men and Transgender Women in Sub-Saharan Africa: HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 075 Study

BACKGROUND

The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 075 study evaluated the feasibility of enrolling and retaining men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) from Kenya, Malawi, and South Africa. During the study follow-up, 21 participants acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (seroconverters). We analyzed HIV subtype diversity, drug resistance, transmission dynamics, and HIV superinfection data among MSM and TGW enrolled in HPTN 075.

METHODS

HIV genotyping and drug resistance testing were performed for participants living with HIV who had viral loads >400 copies/mL at screening (prevalent cases, n = 124) and seroconverters (n = 21). HIV pol clusters were identified using Cluster Picker. Superinfection was assessed by a longitudinal analysis of env and pol sequences generated by next-generation sequencing.

RESULTS

HIV genotyping was successful for 123/124 prevalent cases and all 21 seroconverters. The major HIV subtypes were A1 (Kenya) and C (Malawi and South Africa). Major drug resistance mutations were detected in samples from 21 (14.6%) of 144 participants; the most frequent mutations were K103N and M184V/I. Phylogenetic analyses identified 11 clusters (2-6 individuals). Clusters included seroconverters only (n = 1), prevalent cases and seroconverters (n = 4), and prevalent cases only (n = 6). Superinfections were identified in 1 prevalent case and 2 seroconverters. The annual incidence of superinfection was higher among seroconverters than among prevalent cases, and was higher than the rate of primary HIV infection in the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

This report provides important insights into HIV genetic diversity, drug resistance, and superinfection among MSM and TGW in sub-Saharan Africa. These findings may help to inform future HIV prevention interventions in these high-risk groups.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Discerning HIV-1 Mixing among Vulnerable Populations and Geographic Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

To reduce global HIV-1 incidence, there is a need to understand and disentangle HIV-1 transmission dynamics and to determine the geographic areas and populations that act as hubs or drivers of HIV-1 spread. In Sub-Saharan Africa (sSA), the region with the highest HIV-1 burden, information about such transmission dynamics is sparse. Phylogenetic inference is a powerful method for the study of HIV-1 transmission networks and source attribution. In this review, we assessed available phylogenetic data on mixing between HIV-1 hotspots (geographic areas and populations with high HIV-1 incidence and prevalence) and areas or populations with lower HIV-1 burden in sSA. We searched PubMed and identified and reviewed 64 studies on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between risk groups and geographic locations in sSA (published 1995-2021). We describe HIV-1 transmission from both a geographic and a risk group perspective in sSA. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing phylogenetic inference in mixed epidemics in sSA and offer our perspectives and potential solutions to the identified challenges.

Trends and predictors of HIV positivity and time since last test at voluntary counselling and testing encounters among adults in Kilifi, Kenya, 2006-2017

Background: Little is known about HIV retesting uptake among key populations (KP) and general populations (GP) in Kenya. We assessed trends and predictors of first-time testing (FTT), late retesting (previous test more than one year ago for GP or three months for KP), and test positivity at three voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) centres in coastal Kenya. Methods: Routine VCT data covering 2006-2017 was collected from three VCT centres in Kilifi County. We analysed HIV testing history and test results from encounters among adults 18-39 years, categorized as GP men, GP women, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW).     Results: Based on 24,728 test encounters (32% FTT), we observed declines in HIV positivity (proportion of encounters where the result was positive) among GP men, GP women, first-time testers and MSM but not among FSW. The proportion of encounters for FTT and late retesting decreased for both GP and KP but remained much higher in KP than GP. HIV positivity was higher at FTT and late retesting encounters; at FSW and MSM encounters; and at encounters with clients reporting lower educational attainment and sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms. HIV positivity was lower in GP men, never married clients and those less than 35 years of age. FTT was associated with town, risk group, age 18-24 years, never-married status, low educational attainment, and STI symptoms. Late retesting was less common among encounters with GP individuals who were never married, had Muslim or no religious affiliation, had lower educational attainment, or reported STI symptoms. Conclusions: HIV positive test results were most common at encounters with first-time testers and late re-testers. While the proportion of encounters at which late retesting was reported decreased steadily over the period reviewed, efforts are needed to increase retesting among the most at-risk populations.

HIV genetic diversity informs stage of HIV-1 infection among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Botswana

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 genetic diversity increases during infection and can help infer the time elapsed since infection. However, the effect of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on the inference remains unknown.

Methods

Participants with estimated duration of HIV-1 infection based on repeated testing were sourced from cohorts in Botswana (n = 1944). Full-length HIV genome sequencing was performed from proviral deoxyribonucleic acid. We optimized a machine learning model to classify infections as < or >1 year based on viral genetic diversity, demographic, and clinical data.

Results

The best predictive model included variables for genetic diversity of HIV-1 gag, pol, and env, viral load, age, sex, and ART status. Most participants were on ART. Balanced accuracy was 90.6% (95% confidence interval, 86.7%–94.1%). We tested the algorithm among newly diagnosed participants with or without documented negative HIV tests. Among those without records, those who self-reported a negative HIV test within <1 year were more frequently classified as recent than those who reported a test >1 year previously. There was no difference in classification between those self-reporting a negative HIV test <1 year, whether or not they had a record.

Conclusions

These results indicate that recency of HIV-1 infection can be inferred from viral sequence diversity even among patients on suppressive ART.

Peer-mediated HIV assisted partner services to identify and link to care HIV-positive and HCV-positive people who inject drugs: a cohort study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Targeted, tailored interventions to test high-risk individuals for HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are vital to achieving HIV control and HCV microelimination in Africa. Compared with the general population, people who inject drugs (PWID) are at increased risk of HIV and HCV and are less likely to be tested or successfully treated. Assisted partner services (APS) increases HIV testing among partners of people living with HIV and improves case finding and linkage to care. We describe a study in Kenya examining whether APS can be adapted to find, test and link to HIV care the partners of HIV-positive PWID using a network of community-embedded peer educators (PEs). Our study also identifies HCV-positive partners and uses phylogenetic analysis to determine risk factors for onward transmission of both viruses.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study leverages a network of PEs to identify 1000 HIV-positive PWID for enrolment as index participants. Each index completes a questionnaire and provides names and contact information of all sexual and injecting partners during the previous 3 years. PEs then use a stepwise locator protocol to engage partners in the community and bring them to study sites for enrolment, questionnaire completion and rapid HIV and HCV testing. Outcomes include number and type of partners per index who are mentioned, enrolled, tested, diagnosed with HIV and HCV and linked to care.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Potential index participants are screened for intimate partner violence (IPV) and those at high risk are not eligible to enrol. Those at medium risk are monitored for IPV following enrolment. A community advisory board engages in feedback and discussion between the community and the research team. A safety monitoring board discusses study progress and reviews data, including IPV monitoring data. Dissemination plans include presentations at quarterly Ministry of Health meetings, local and international conferences and publications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03447210, Pre-results stage.

Trends and predictors of HIV positivity and time since last test at voluntary counselling and testing encounters among adults in Kilifi, Kenya, 2006-2017

Background: Little is known about HIV retesting uptake among key populations (KP) and general populations (GP) in Kenya. We assessed trends and predictors of first-time testing (FTT), late retesting (previous test more than one year ago for GP or three months for KP), and test positivity at three voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) centres in coastal Kenya. Methods: Routine VCT data covering 2006-2017 was collected from three VCT centres in Kilifi County. We analysed HIV testing history and test results from encounters among adults 18-39 years, categorized as GP men, GP women, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW).     Results: Based on 24,728 test encounters (32% FTT), we observed declines in HIV positivity (proportion of encounters where the result was positive) among GP men, GP women, first-time testers and MSM but not among FSW. The proportion of encounters for FTT and late retesting decreased for both GP and KP but remained much higher in KP than GP. HIV positivity was higher at FTT and late retesting encounters; at FSW and MSM encounters; and at encounters with clients reporting lower educational attainment and sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms. HIV positivity was lower in GP men, never married clients and those less than 35 years of age. FTT was associated with town, risk group, age 18-24 years, never-married status, low educational attainment, and STI symptoms. Late retesting was less common among encounters with GP individuals who were never married, had Muslim or no religious affiliation, had lower educational attainment, or reported STI symptoms. Conclusions: HIV positive test results were most common at encounters with first-time testers and late re-testers. While the proportion of encounters at which late retesting was reported decreased steadily over the period reviewed, efforts are needed to increase retesting among the most at-risk populations.

Methodological synthesis of Bayesian phylodynamics, HIV-TRACE, and GEE: HIV-1 transmission epidemiology in a racially/ethnically diverse Southern U.S. context

This study introduces an innovative methodological approach to identify potential drivers of structuring HIV-1 transmission clustering patterns between different subpopulations in the culturally and racially/ethnically diverse context of Houston, TX, the largest city in the Southern United States. Using 6332 HIV-1 pol sequences from persons newly diagnosed with HIV during the period 2010–2018, we reconstructed HIV-1 transmission clusters, using the HIV-TRAnsmission Cluster Engine (HIV-TRACE); inferred demographic and risk parameters on HIV-1 transmission dynamics by jointly estimating viral transmission rates across racial/ethnic, age, and transmission risk groups; and modeled the degree of network connectivity by using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Our results indicate that Hispanics/Latinos are most vulnerable to the structure of transmission clusters and serve as a bridge population, acting as recipients of transmissions from Whites (3.0 state changes/year) and from Blacks (2.6 state changes/year) as well as sources of transmissions to Whites (1.8 state changes/year) and to Blacks (1.2 state changes/year). There were high rates of transmission and high network connectivity between younger and older Hispanics/Latinos as well as between younger and older Blacks. Prevention and intervention efforts are needed for transmission clusters that involve younger racial/ethnic minorities, in particular Hispanic/Latino youth, to reduce onward transmission of HIV in Houston.

Molecular network-based intervention brings us closer to ending the HIV pandemic

Precise identification of HIV transmission among populations is a key step in public health responses. However, the HIV transmission network is usually difficult to determine. HIV molecular networks can be determined by phylogenetic approach, genetic distance-based approach, and a combination of both approaches. These approaches are increasingly used to identify transmission networks among populations, reconstruct the history of HIV spread, monitor the dynamics of HIV transmission, guide targeted intervention on key subpopulations, and assess the effects of interventions. Simulation and retrospective studies have demonstrated that these molecular network-based interventions are more cost-effective than random or traditional interventions. However, we still need to address several challenges to improve the practice of molecular network-guided targeting interventions to finally end the HIV epidemic. The data remain limited or difficult to obtain, and more automatic real-time tools are required. In addition, molecular and social networks must be combined, and technical parameters and ethnic issues warrant further studies.

Virological and immunological impact of integrase inhibitor-based regimens initiated during primary HIV-1 infection

DESIGN

Current international guidelines recommend either boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r)-based or integrase inhibitors (INSTI)-based regimens during primary HIV infection (PHI), even though the latter have only demonstrated their superiority at the chronic stage. We compared the effectiveness of INSTI-based versus PI/r-based combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiated during PHI.

METHODS

This study was conducted among patients who initiated cART between 2013 and 2017, using data from the ANRS-PRIMO cohort and the Dat'AIDS study. Cumulative proportions of patients reaching viral suppression (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/ml) were calculated using Turnbull's estimator for interval-censored data. CD4 cells and CD4/CD8 ratio increases were estimated using mixed linear models. Results were adjusted for the data source.

RESULTS

Among the 712 study patients, 299 received an INSTI-based cART. Patients' baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Viral suppression was reached more rapidly in INSTI-treated versus PI/r-treated patients (P < 0.01), with cumulative proportions of 32 versus 6% at 4 weeks, 72 versus 31% at 12 weeks, 91 versus 78% at 24 weeks and about 95% in both groups at 48 weeks. At 4 weeks, INSTI-treated patients had gained on average 40 CD4 cells/μl (P = 0.05) over PI/r-treated ones; mean CD4 counts were similar in the two groups at 48 weeks. The CD4/CD8 ratio followed the same pattern. Results were similar when restricted to a comparison between dolutegravir-based versus darunavir-based cART.

CONCLUSION

On the basis of this study and available literature, we recommend the use of INSTI-based cART for treatment initiation during PHI, as it leads to faster viral suppression and immune restoration.

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance spread within transmission clusters in Mexico City

BACKGROUND

Pretreatment HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) to NNRTIs has consistently increased in Mexico City during the last decade.

OBJECTIVES

To infer the HIV genetic transmission network in Mexico City to describe the dynamics of the local HIV epidemic and spread of HIVDR.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

HIV pol sequences were obtained by next-generation sequencing from 2447 individuals before initiation of ART at the largest HIV clinic in Mexico City (April 2016 to June 2018). Pretreatment HIVDR was estimated using the Stanford algorithm at a Sanger-like threshold (≥20%). Genetic networks were inferred with HIV-TRACE, establishing putative transmission links with genetic distances <1.5%. We examined demographic associations among linked individuals with shared drug resistance mutations (DRMs) using a ≥ 2% threshold to include low-frequency variants.

RESULTS

Pretreatment HIVDR reached 14.8% (95% CI 13.4%-16.2%) in the cohort overall and 9.6% (8.5%-10.8%) to NNRTIs. Putative links with at least one other sequence were found for 963/2447 (39%) sequences, forming 326 clusters (2-20 individuals). The inferred network was assortative by age and municipality (P < 0.001). Clustering individuals were younger [adjusted OR (aOR) per year = 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.97, P < 0.001] and less likely to include women (aOR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.75, P = 0.002). Among clustering individuals, 175/963 (18%) shared DRMs (involving 66 clusters), of which 66/175 (38%) shared K103N/S (24 clusters). Eight municipalities (out of 75) harboured 65% of persons sharing DRMs. Among all persons sharing DRMs, those sharing K103N were younger (aOR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.88-0.98, P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses suggest age- and geographically associated transmission of DRMs within the HIV genetic network in Mexico City, warranting continuous monitoring and focused interventions.

A meta-analysis of the efficacy of HAART on HIV transmission and its impact on sexual risk behaviours among men who have sex with men

Evidence showed preventive impacts of the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) transmission amomg heterosexual population, however, that is of deficit among men who have sex with men (MSM). The aim was to systematically examine the efficacy of HAART on HIV transmission and the association between the HAART initiation and unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) in MSM population. Three electronic databases were fully searched for articles published in peer-reviewed journals between 1996 and 2017. Of 1616 identified articles, fifteen articles were eligible for meta-analyses. The summary incidence rate (IR) of HIV was 6.63/100 person-year (95%CI 2.06–11.20/100 person-year)(p = 0.004). The pooled per-contact rate (PCR) of HIV was 0.42% (95% CI 0.21–0.63%)(p < 0.05). The HAART initiation (vs non-HAART) was not associated with engaging in UAI, with odds ratio (OR) 1.09 (95% CI 0.90–1.34)(p > 0.05). In the stratified analysis, participants with no less than 6 months recall period was slightly more likely to engage in UAI (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.01–1.74)(p < 0.05). It indicated that HAART has potential efficacy on reducing infectivity of HIV positive individuals in anal intercourses. The relationship between the HAART initiation and UAI was not significant and may be influenced by some social-demographic factors. Consistent condom use and education on safe sex among MSM are crucial.

Natural selection favoring more transmissible HIV detected in United States molecular transmission network

HIV molecular epidemiology can identify clusters of individuals with elevated rates of HIV transmission. These variable transmission rates are primarily driven by host risk behavior; however, the effect of viral traits on variable transmission rates is poorly understood. Viral load, the concentration of HIV in blood, is a heritable viral trait that influences HIV infectiousness and disease progression. Here, we reconstruct HIV genetic transmission clusters using data from the United States National HIV Surveillance System and report that viruses in clusters, inferred to be frequently transmitted, have higher viral loads at diagnosis. Further, viral load is higher in people in larger clusters and with increased network connectivity, suggesting that HIV in the United States is experiencing natural selection to be more infectious and virulent. We also observe a concurrent increase in viral load at diagnosis over the last decade. This evolutionary trajectory may be slowed by prevention strategies prioritized toward rapidly growing transmission clusters.

Exploring HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics by Combining Phylogenetic Analysis and Infection Timing

HIV-1 pol sequences obtained through baseline drug resistance testing of patients newly diagnosed between 2013 and 2017 were analyzed for genetic similarity. For 927 patients the information on genetic similarity was combined with demographic data and with information on the recency of infection. Overall, 48.3% of the patients were genetically linked with 11.4% belonging to a pair and 36.9% involved in a cluster of ≥3 members. The percentage of early diagnosed (≤4 months after infection) was 28.6%. Patients of Belgian origin were more frequently involved in transmission clusters (49.7% compared to 15.3%) and diagnosed earlier (37.4% compared to 12.2%) than patients of Sub-Saharan African origin. Of the infections reported to be locally acquired, 69.5% were linked (14.1% paired and 55.4% in a cluster). Equal parts of early and late diagnosed individuals (59.9% and 52.4%, respectively) were involved in clusters. The identification of a genetically linked individual for the majority of locally infected patients suggests a high rate of diagnosis in this population. Diagnosis however is often delayed for >4 months after infection increasing the opportunities for onward transmission. Prevention of local infection should focus on earlier diagnosis and protection of the still uninfected members of sexual networks with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected members.

High rates of sexually transmissible infections in HIV-positive patients in the Australian HIV Observational Database: a prospective cohort study

Background In HIV-positive people, sexually transmissible infections (STIs) probably increase the infectiousness of HIV.

METHODS

In 2010, we established a cohort of individuals (n=554) from clinics in the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD). We calculated retrospective rates for four STIs for 2005-10 and prospective incidence rates for 2010-11.

RESULTS

At baseline (2010), patient characteristics were similar to the rest of AHOD. Overall incidence was 12.5 per 100 person-years. Chlamydial infections increased from 3.4 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-5.7) in 2005 to 6.7 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.5-9.5) in 2011, peaking in 2010 (8.1 per 100 person-years; 95% CI: 5.6-11.2). Cases were distributed among rectal (61.9%), urethral (34%) and pharyngeal (6.3%) sites. Gonococcal infections increased, peaking in 2010 (4.7 per 100 person-years; 95% CI: 5.6-11.2; Ptrend=0.0099), distributed among rectal (63.9%), urethral (27.9%) and pharyngeal (14.8%) sites. Syphilis showed several peaks, the largest in 2008 (5.3 per 100 person-years; 95% CI: 3.3-8.0); the overall trend was not significant (P=0.113). Genital warts declined from 7.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.8-11.3) in 2005 to 2.4 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 1.1-4.5) in 2011 (Ptrend=0.0016).

CONCLUSIONS

For chlamydial and gonococcal infections, incidence was higher than previous Australian estimates among HIV-infected men who have sex with men, increasing during 2005-2011. Rectal infections outnumbered infections at other sites. Syphilis incidence remained high but did not increase; that of genital warts was lower and decreased.

Trends and predictors of new HIV diagnosis and time since last test at testing encounters among adults in Kilifi, Kenya, 2006-2017

Background: Little is known about HIV retesting uptake among key populations (KP) and general populations (GP) in Kenya. We assessed trends and predictors of new HIV diagnosis, first-time testing (FTT), and late retesting (previous test more than one year ago for GP or three months for KP). Methods: Data was collected routinely at three voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) centres in Kilifi County between 2006 and 2017. We analysed test encounters among adults 18-39 years, categorized as GP men, GP women, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSW).     Results: Based on 25,670 test encounters (32% FTT), we observed significant declines in HIV positivity (proportion of encounters with a new HIV diagnosis) among GP men, GP women, and first-time testers, but not among MSM and FSW. FTT and late retesting decreased for both GP and KP, but remained much higher in KP than GP. In 2017, less than 20% of KP were testing quarterly as recommended. HIV positivity was higher at FTT and late retesting encounters (relative to on-time retesting); at FSW and MSM encounters; and at encounters with clients reporting lower educational attainment, sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms, or no religious affiliation. HIV positivity was lower in GP men and younger clients. FTT was associated with town, risk group, age 18-24 years, never-married status, low educational attainment, and STI symptoms. Late retesting was less common among encounters with GP individuals who were never married, had Muslim or no religious affiliation, had lower educational attainment, or reported STI symptoms. Conclusions: New HIV diagnoses were most common among first-time testers and late re-testers. While late retesting decreased steadily over the period reviewed, achievement of the county's 90% HIV diagnosis target will require redoubled efforts to increase retesting among the most at risk populations.

An Internet-Based HIV Self-Testing Program to Increase HIV Testing Uptake Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Brazil: Descriptive Cross-Sectional Analysis

BACKGROUND

Approximately 30% of people living with HIV worldwide are estimated to be unaware of their infection. HIV self-testing (HIVST) is a strategy recommended by the World Health Organization to increase access to and uptake of testing among key populations who are at high risk for HIV infection.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to describe the development and feasibility of a free, anonymous, internet-based HIVST strategy designed for men who have sex with men in Curitiba, Brazil (electronic testing [e-testing]).

METHODS

The project was developed under the scope of the "A Hora é Agora" (The Time is Now) program. Individuals aiming to request an HIVST package (two tests each) answered an anonymous 5-minute questionnaire regarding inclusion criteria and sexual risk behavior. Eligible individuals could receive one package every 6 months for free. Website analytics, response to online questionnaires, package distribution, and return of test results were monitored via a platform-integrated system.

RESULTS

Between February 2015 and January 2016, the website documented 17,786 unique visitors and 3218 completed online questionnaires. Most individuals self-reported being white (77.0%), young (median age: 25 years, interquartile range: 22-31 years), educated (87.3% completed secondary education or more), and previously tested for HIV (62.5%). Overall, 2526 HIVST packages were delivered; of those, 542 (21.4%) reported a result online or by mail (23 reactive and 11 invalid). During the study period, 37 individuals who reported using e-testing visited the prespecified health facility for confirmatory testing (30 positive, 7 negative).

CONCLUSIONS

E-testing proved highly feasible and acceptable in this study, thus supporting scale-up to additional centers for men who have sex with men in Brazil.

E157Q integrase strand-transfer inhibitor substitution in patients with acute/recent HIV infection

OBJECTIVES

Integrase strand-transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimens are the preferred combinations for naïve HIV-infected individuals. Polymorphic substitutions that reduce InSTIs activity have been described, with E157Q being one of the most frequently found. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of E157Q substitution in newly diagnosed acute/recent HIV cases and the presence of transmission clusters.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study in patients with acute/recent HIV infection.

METHODS

Genotypic drug resistance tests were performed in all consecutive patients prospectively enrolled with a documented infection of less than 6 months from May 2015 to May 2017. Sequences were obtained by ultra-deep sequencing. Phylogenetic inferences were performed using maximum likelihood trees constructed with Mega 6.06. Bootstrap values of 75% or greater were defined for cluster assignment. Follow-up was, at least, 1 year.

RESULTS

In six out of 67 consecutive patients (8.95%, 95% confidence interval 4.17-18.19) with acute/recent HIV infection, strains carrying the E157Q InSTI substitution were detected. All cases were MSM patients infected with subtype B strains. No other resistance substitutions were detected in these cases. Median viral load was 5.33 (interquartile range: 4.54-5.71) log10 copies/ml and, in all cases, the mutational viral load was high (>95%). Three cases were included in transmission clusters. Three cases responded to dolutegravir-based regimens; nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens were used for the other case(s).

CONCLUSION

E157Q substitution, reducing raltegravir and elvitegravir activity, was frequently found in acute/recent HIV cases. All cases were infected with subtype B, and some were included in clusters. Cases treated with dolutegravir-based regimens had good virological response.

Non-disclosed men who have sex with men in UK HIV transmission networks: phylogenetic analysis of surveillance data

BACKGROUND

Patients who do not disclose their sexuality, including men who do not disclose same-sex behaviour, are difficult to characterise through traditional epidemiological approaches such as interviews. Using a recently developed method to detect large networks of viral sequences from time-resolved trees, we localised non-disclosed men who have sex with men (MSM) in UK transmission networks, gaining crucial insight into the behaviour of this group.

METHODS

For this phylogenetic analysis, we obtained HIV pol sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UKRDB), a central repository for resistance tests done as part of routine clinical care throughout the UK. Sequence data are linked to demographic and clinical data held by the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study and the national HIV/AIDS reporting system database. Initially, we reconstructed maximum likelihood phylogenies from these sequences, then sequences were selected for time-resolved analysis in BEAST if they were clustered with at least one other sequence at a genetic distance of 4·5% or less with support of at least 90%. We used time-resolved phylogenies to create networks by linking together nodes if sequences shared a common ancestor within the previous 5 years. We identified potential non-disclosed MSM (pnMSM), defined as self-reported heterosexual men who clustered only with men. We measured the network position of pnMSM, including betweenness (a measure of connectedness and importance) and assortativity (the propensity for nodes sharing attributes to link).

FINDINGS

14 405 individuals were in the network, including 8452 MSM, 1743 heterosexual women and 1341 heterosexual men. 249 pnMSM were identified (18·6% of all clustered heterosexual men) in the network. pnMSM were more likely to be black African (p<0·0001), less likely to be infected with subtype B (p=0·006), and were slightly older (p=0·002) than the MSM they clustered with. Mean betweenness centrality was lower for pnMSM than for MSM (1·31, 95% CI 0·48-2·15 in pnMSM vs 2·24, 0·98-3·51 in MSM; p=0·002), indicating that pnMSM were in peripheral positions in MSM clusters. Assortativity by risk group was higher than expected (0·037 vs -0·037, p=0·01) signifying that pnMSM were linked to each other. We found that self-reported heterosexual men were more likely to link MSM and heterosexual women than heterosexual women were to link MSM and heterosexual men (Fisher's exact test p=0·0004; OR 2·24) but the number of such transmission chains was small (only 54 in total vs 32 in women).

INTERPRETATION

pnMSM are a subgroup distinct from both MSM and from heterosexual men. They are more likely to choose sexual partners who are also pnMSM and might exhibit lower-risk sexual behaviour than MSM (eg, choosing low-risk partners or consistently using condoms). Heterosexual men are the group most likely to be diagnosed with late-stage disease (ie, low CD4 counts) and non-disclosed MSM might put female partners at higher risk than heterosexual men because non-disclosed MSM have male partners. Hence, pnMSM require specific consideration to ensure they are included in public health interventions.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Diverse Large HIV-1 Non-subtype B Clusters Are Spreading Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Spain

In Western Europe, the HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) is dominated by subtype B. However, recently, other genetic forms have been reported to circulate in this population, as evidenced by their grouping in clusters predominantly comprising European individuals. Here we describe four large HIV-1 non-subtype B clusters spreading among MSM in Spain. Samples were collected in 9 regions. A pol fragment was amplified from plasma RNA or blood-extracted DNA. Phylogenetic analyses were performed via maximum likelihood, including database sequences of the same genetic forms as the identified clusters. Times and locations of the most recent common ancestors (MRCA) of clusters were estimated with a Bayesian method. Five large non-subtype B clusters associated with MSM were identified. The largest one, of F1 subtype, was reported previously. The other four were of CRF02_AG (CRF02_1; n = 115) and subtypes A1 (A1_1; n = 66), F1 (F1_3; n = 36), and C (C_7; n = 17). Most individuals belonging to them had been diagnosed of HIV-1 infection in the last 10 years. Each cluster comprised viruses from 3 to 8 Spanish regions and also comprised or was related to viruses from other countries: CRF02_1 comprised a Japanese subcluster and viruses from 8 other countries from Western Europe, Asia, and South America; A1_1 comprised viruses from Portugal, United Kingom, and United States, and was related to the A1 strain circulating in Greece, Albania and Cyprus; F1_3 was related to viruses from Romania; and C_7 comprised viruses from Portugal and was related to a virus from Mozambique. A subcluster within CRF02_1 was associated with heterosexual transmission. Near full-length genomes of each cluster were of uniform genetic form. Times of MRCAs of CRF02_1, A1_1, F1_3, and C_7 were estimated around 1986, 1989, 2013, and 1983, respectively. MRCA locations for CRF02_1 and A1_1 were uncertain (however initial expansions in Spain in Madrid and Vigo, respectively, were estimated) and were most probable in Bilbao, Spain, for F1_3 and Portugal for C_7. These results show that the HIV-1 epidemic among MSM in Spain is becoming increasingly diverse through the expansion of diverse non-subtype B clusters, comprising or related to viruses circulating in other countries.

Growth of HIV-1 Molecular Transmission Clusters in New York City

Background

HIV-1 genetic sequences can be used to infer viral transmission history and dynamics. Throughout the United States, HIV-1 sequences from drug resistance testing are reported to local public health departments.

Methods

We investigated whether inferred HIV transmission network dynamics can identify individuals and clusters of individuals most likely to give rise to future HIV cases in a surveillance setting. We used HIV-TRACE, a genetic distance-based clustering tool, to infer molecular transmission clusters from HIV-1 pro/RT sequences from 65736 people in the New York City surveillance registry. Logistic and LASSO regression analyses were used to identify correlates of clustering and cluster growth, respectively. We performed retrospective transmission network analyses to evaluate individual- and cluster-level prioritization schemes for identifying parts of the network most likely to give rise to new cases in the subsequent year.

Results

Individual-level prioritization schemes predicted network growth better than random targeting. Across the 3600 inferred molecular transmission clusters, previous growth dynamics were superior predictors of future transmission cluster growth compared to individual-level prediction schemes. Cluster-level prioritization schemes considering previous cluster growth relative to cluster size further improved network growth predictions.

Conclusions

Prevention efforts based on HIV molecular epidemiology may improve public health outcomes in a US surveillance setting.

Impact of worker emigration on HIV epidemics in labour export areas: a molecular epidemiology investigation in Guangyuan, China

We aimed to investigate the molecular epidemic characteristics and viral transmission patterns of HIV-1 in a typical labor export area, Guangyuan city, China. Based on conducting phylogenetic trees and molecular transmission networks, a phylogenetic analysis was performed on HIV-1 pol sequences obtained from 211 migrant-history workers, 83 non-migrant-history individuals, and 21 migrant-history unknown individuals between January, 2012 and February, 2017 in Guangyuan city. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that CRF07_BC (48.3%, n = 152) and CRF01_AE (33.3%, n = 105) were the dominant strains in Guangyuan city, and circulated by multiple lineages with various epidemic characteristics. Geographic network analysis showed that Guangyuan city-related sequences with 20.3% CRF07_BC and 28.3% CRF01_AE were linked to that of other provinces, compared to that with 1.7% CRF07_BC and 5.0% CRF01_AE in cities of Sichuan. Molecular transmission network analysis further illustrated that migrant-history workers linked more sequences from other provinces than non-migrant-history individuals in both CRF07_BC (29.3% versus 0.0%, P = 0.013) and CRF01_AE (40.5% versus 10.0%, P = 0.001) networks. Our results highlighted that migrant-history workers in recent year played a vital role in fueling HIV-1 epidemic in Guangyuan city. Molecular transmission network analysis could be a useful approach for disclosing the transmission mechanism of HIV, which should be used in prevention and intervention efforts.

Transmission dynamics among participants initiating antiretroviral therapy upon diagnosis of early acute HIV-1 infection in Thailand

OBJECTIVE

To assess transmission characteristics in a predominantly MSM cohort initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) immediately following diagnosis of acute HIV-1infection (AHI).

METHODS

A longitudinal study (2009-2017) was performed in participants with AHI (n = 439) attending a single clinic in Bangkok. Plasma samples obtained prior to ART were used to obtain HIV-1 pol sequences and combined with clinical and epidemiologic data to assess transmission dynamics (cluster formation and size) using phylogenetic analysis. Clusters were estimated using maximum likelihood, genetic distance of 1.5% and visual inspection. The potential transmitter(s) in a cluster was determined using time to viral suppression and interview data.

RESULTS

The cohort was predominantly MSM (93%) and infected with HIV-1 CRF01_AE (87%). Medians (ranges) for age and viral load prior to ART were 26 (18-70) years and 5.9 (2.5-8.2) log10 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml. Median time from history of HIV-1 exposure to diagnosis was 19 (3-61) days. Viral suppression was observed in 388 of 412 (94%) participants at a median time of 12 weeks following ART. Twenty-six clusters with median cluster size of 2 (2-5) representing 62 of 439 (14%) participants were observed. Younger age was associated with cluster formation: median 28 versus 30 years for unique infections (P = 0.01). A potential transmitter was identified in 11 of 26 (42%) clusters.

CONCLUSION

Despite high rates of viral suppression following diagnosis and treatment of AHI within a cohort of young Thai MSM, HIV-1 transmission continued, reflecting the need to expand awareness and treatment access to the entire MSM population.

A cross-sectional study examining associations between substance use frequency, problematic use and STIs among youth living with HIV

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to examine the prevalence of STIs and whether substance use frequency and/or problematic use-specifically alcohol, marijuana and other drugs-was associated with having an STI diagnosis among youth living with HIV (YLWH) METHODS: A sample of 823 YLWH were recruited at 14 adolescent HIV clinics through the Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV Interventions. Study staff abstracted STI data from medical records for up to 26 weeks prior to participants' completing a cross-sectional survey including the ASSIST (Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test), which measures substance use frequency and consequences.

RESULTS

Almost one-third of youth had been diagnosed with an STI (30.5%) at the time of their baseline assessment. In multivariable analyses, those who engaged in weekly or greater marijuana use (adjusted OR (AOR)=10.66, 95% CI: 4.39 to 25.87, P<0.001) had an increased odds of being diagnosed with an STI. Additionally, youth who met alcohol use criteria for moderate (AOR=5.23, 95% CI: 2.50 to 10.93, P<0.001) and high risk (AOR=6.53, 95% CI: 1.20 to 35.68, P<0.05) alcohol use had an increased odds of being diagnosed with an STI compared with low-risk alcohol users.

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings underscore the need to investigate the role of greater frequency of marijuana use and problematic alcohol use in STI incidence among YLWH. Given the associations between both substance use frequency and problematic use in STI diagnoses among YLWH seen in HIV care settings, clinicians should use validated substance use screening tools which capture both frequencies and consequences in order to identify YLWH who may need further evaluation and treatment.

Defining objective clusters for rabies virus sequences using affinity propagation clustering

Rabies is caused by lyssaviruses, and is one of the oldest known zoonoses. In recent years, more than 21,000 nucleotide sequences of rabies viruses (RABV), from the prototype species rabies lyssavirus, have been deposited in public databases. Subsequent phylogenetic analyses in combination with metadata suggest geographic distributions of RABV. However, these analyses somewhat experience technical difficulties in defining verifiable criteria for cluster allocations in phylogenetic trees inviting for a more rational approach. Therefore, we applied a relatively new mathematical clustering algorythm named ‘affinity propagation clustering’ (AP) to propose a standardized sub-species classification utilizing full-genome RABV sequences. Because AP has the advantage that it is computationally fast and works for any meaningful measure of similarity between data samples, it has previously been applied successfully in bioinformatics, for analysis of microarray and gene expression data, however, cluster analysis of sequences is still in its infancy. Existing (516) and original (46) full genome RABV sequences were used to demonstrate the application of AP for RABV clustering. On a global scale, AP proposed four clusters, i.e. New World cluster, Arctic/Arctic-like, Cosmopolitan, and Asian as previously assigned by phylogenetic studies. By combining AP with established phylogenetic analyses, it is possible to resolve phylogenetic relationships between verifiably determined clusters and sequences. This workflow will be useful in confirming cluster distributions in a uniform transparent manner, not only for RABV, but also for other comparative sequence analyses.

Rabies is one of the oldest known zoonoses, caused by lyssaviruses. In recent years, more than 21,000 nucleotide sequences for rabies viruses (RABV) have been deposited in public databases. In this study, a novel mathematical approach called affinity propagation (AP) clustering, a highly powerful tool, to verifiably divide full genome RABV sequences into genetic clusters, was used. A panel of existing and novel RABV full genome sequences was used to demonstrate the application of AP for RABV clustering. Using a combination of AP with established phylogenetic analyses is useful in resolving phylogenetic relationships between more objectively determined clusters and sequences. This workflow will help to substantiate a transparent cluster distribution, not only for RABV, but also for other comparative sequence analyses.

2016 United Kingdom national guideline on the sexual health care of men who have sex with men

This guideline is intended for use in UK Genitourinary medicine clinics and sexual health services but is likely to be of relevance in all sexual health settings, including general practice and Contraception and Sexual Health (CASH) services, where men who have sex with men (MSM) seek sexual health care or where addressing the sexual health needs of MSM may have public health benefits. For the purposes of this document, MSM includes all gay, bisexual and all other males who have sex with other males and both cis and trans men. This document does not provide guidance on the treatment of particular conditions where this is covered in other British Association for Sexual Health and HIV (BASHH) Guidelines but outlines best practice in multiple aspects of the sexual health care of MSM. Where prevention of sexually transmitted infections including HIV can be addressed as an integral part of clinical care, this is consistent with the concept of combination prevention and is included. The document is designed primarily to provide guidance on the direct clinical care of MSM but also makes reference to the design and delivery of services with the aim of supporting clinicians and commissioners in providing effective services. Methodology This document was produced in accordance with the guidance set out in the BASHH CEG's document 'Framework for guideline development and assessment' published in 2010 at http://www.bashh.org/guidelines and with reference to the Agree II instrument. Following the production of the updated framework in April 2015, the GRADE system for assessing evidence was adopted and the draft recommendations were regraded. Search strategy (see also Appendix 1) Ovid Medline 1946 to December 2014, Medline daily update, Embase 1974 to December 2014, Pubmed NeLH Guidelines Database, Cochrane library from 2000 to December 2014. Search language English only. The search for Section 3 was conducted on PubMed to December 2014. Priority was given to peer-reviewed papers published in scientific journals, although for many issues evidence includes conference abstracts listed on the Embase database. In addition, for 'Identification of problematic recreational drug and alcohol use' section and 'Sexual problems and dysfunctions in MSM' section, searches included PsycINFO. Methods Article titles and abstracts were reviewed and if relevant the full text article was obtained. Priority was given to randomised controlled trial and systematic review evidence, and recommendations made and graded on the basis of best available evidence. Piloting and feedback The first draft of the guideline was circulated to the writing group and to a small group of relevant experts, third sector partners and patient representatives who were invited to comment on the whole document and specifically on particular sections. The revised draft was reviewed by the CEG and then reviewed by the BASHH patient/public panel and posted on the BASHH website for public consultation. The final draft was piloted before publication. Guideline update The guidelines will be reviewed and revised in five years' time, 2022.

The Role of Phylogenetics as a Tool to Predict the Spread of Resistance

Drug resistance mutations emerge in genetic sequences of HIV through drug-selective pressure. Drug resistance can be transmitted. In this review we discuss phylogenetic methods used to study the emergence of drug resistance and the spread of resistant viruses.

Acute HIV infection detection and immediate treatment estimated to reduce transmission by 89% among men who have sex with men in Bangkok

Introduction: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces HIV transmission. Despite increased ART coverage, incidence remains high among men who have sex with men (MSM) in many places. Acute HIV infection (AHI) is characterized by high viral replication and increased infectiousness. We estimated the feasible reduction in transmission by targeting MSM with AHI for early ART.

Methods: We recruited a cohort of 88 MSM with AHI in Bangkok, Thailand, who initiated ART immediately. A risk calculator based on viral load and reported behaviour, calibrated to Thai epidemiological data, was applied to estimate the number of onwards transmissions. This was compared with the expected number without early interventions.

Results: Forty of the MSM were in 4th-generation AHI stages 1 and 2 (4thG stage 1, HIV nucleic acid testing (NAT)+/4thG immunoassay (IA)-/3rdG IA–; 4thG stage 2, NAT+/4thG IA+/3rdG IA–) while 48 tested positive on third-generation IA but had negative or indeterminate western blot (4thG stage 3). Mean plasma HIV RNA was 5.62 log¹⁰ copies/ml. Any condomless sex in the four months preceding the study was reported by 83.7%, but decreased to 21.2% by 24 weeks on ART. After ART, 48/88 (54.6%) attained HIV RNA <50 copies/ml by week 8, increasing to 78/87 (89.7%), and 64/66 (97%) at weeks 24 and 48, respectively. The estimated number of onwards transmissions in the first year of infection would have been 27.3 (95% credible interval: 21.7–35.3) with no intervention, 8.3 (6.4–11.2) with post-diagnosis behaviour change only, 5.9 (4.4–7.9) with viral load reduction only and 3.1 (2.4–4.3) with both. The latter was associated with an 88.7% (83.8–91.1%) reduction in transmission.

Conclusions: Disproportionate HIV transmission occurs during AHI. Diagnosis of AHI with early ART initiation can substantially reduce onwards transmission.

Impact of stressful death or divorce in people with HIV: A prospective examination and the buffering effects of religious coping and social support

This study examined the impact of a stressful death/divorce on psychological and immune outcomes in people with HIV. People with HIV with stressful death/divorce were examined from before the event to up to 12 months later (n = 45); controls were assessed at similar intervals (n = 112). Stressful deaths/divorces were associated with increased viral load and anxiety over time (ps ≤ .014), but not CD4+ or depression. Increased use of religious coping after the stressful death/divorce was associated with slower increases in viral load (p = .010). These data suggest people with HIV should consider the potentially elevated risk of transmission after such events and seek appropriate monitoring and care.

Clinical and public health implications of acute and early HIV detection and treatment: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

The unchanged global HIV incidence may be related to ignoring acute HIV infection (AHI). This scoping review examines diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications of identifying and treating persons with AHI.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, in addition to hand-review of key journals identifying research pertaining to AHI detection and treatment. We focused on the relative contribution of AHI to transmission and the diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications. We prioritized research from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) published in the last fifteen years.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Extensive AHI research and limited routine AHI detection and treatment have begun in LMIC. Diagnostic challenges include ease-of-use, suitability for application and distribution in LMIC, and throughput for high-volume testing. Risk score algorithms have been used in LMIC to screen for AHI among individuals with behavioural and clinical characteristics more often associated with AHI. However, algorithms have not been implemented outside research settings. From a clinical perspective, there are substantial immunological and virological benefits to identifying and treating persons with AHI - evading the irreversible damage to host immune systems and seeding of viral reservoirs that occurs during untreated acute infection. The therapeutic benefits require rapid initiation of antiretrovirals, a logistical challenge in the absence of point-of-care testing. From a public health perspective, AHI diagnosis and treatment is critical to: decrease transmission via viral load reduction and behavioural interventions; improve pre-exposure prophylaxis outcomes by avoiding treatment initiation for HIV-seronegative persons with AHI; and, enhance partner services via notification for persons recently exposed or likely transmitting.

CONCLUSIONS

There are undeniable clinical and public health benefits to AHI detection and treatment, but also substantial diagnostic and logistical barriers to implementation and scale-up. Effective early ART initiation may be critical for HIV eradication efforts, but widespread use in LMIC requires simple and accurate diagnostic tools. Implementation research is critical to facilitate sustainable integration of AHI detection and treatment into existing health systems and will be essential for prospective evaluation of testing algorithms, point-of-care diagnostics, and efficacious and effective first-line regimens.

Defining HIV-1 transmission clusters based on sequence data

Understanding HIV-1 transmission dynamics is relevant to both screening and intervention strategies of HIV-1 infection. Commonly, HIV-1 transmission chains are determined based on sequence similarity assessed either directly from a sequence alignment or by inferring a phylogenetic tree. This review is aimed at both nonexperts interested in understanding and interpreting studies of HIV-1 transmission, and experts interested in finding the most appropriate cluster definition for a specific dataset and research question. We start by introducing the concepts and methodologies of how HIV-1 transmission clusters usually have been defined. We then present the results of a systematic review of 105 HIV-1 molecular epidemiology studies summarizing the most common methods and definitions in the literature. Finally, we offer our perspectives on how HIV-1 transmission clusters can be defined and provide some guidance based on examples from real life datasets.

Short Communication: Phylogenetic Evidence of HIV-1 Transmission Between Adult and Adolescent Men Who Have Sex with Men

HIV-1 incidence among youth, especially men who have sex with men (MSM), is increasing in the United States. We aimed to better understand the patterns of adolescent HIV-1 acquisition, to help guide future prevention interventions. We conducted a study combining epidemiologic and HIV-1 pol sequence data from a retrospective cohort of HIV-infected adults and adolescents in Seattle, WA between 2000 and 2013. Adolescents were defined as 13-24 years of age at the time of first HIV-1 care. Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees were reconstructed to identify putative viral transmission clusters of two or more individuals, followed by multivariable regression tests of associations between clustering and demographic and clinical parameters. The dataset included 3,102 sequences from 1,953 individuals; 72 putative transmission clusters were identified, representing 168 individuals (8.6%). MSM and MSM/intravenous drug use (IDU) were positively associated with clustering, with aOR 3.18 (95% CI: 1.34-7.55) and 2.59 (95% CI: 1.04-6.49), respectively. African American race was negatively associated with clustering (aOR 0.54 95% CI: 0.32-0.91). Twenty-five clusters contained one adolescent and five clusters contained two adolescents. Other individuals who clustered with adolescents were predominantly male (95%), white (85%), and either MSM (66%) or MSM/IDU (16%), with a greater mean age (34 years vs. 22 years; p < .01). In this Seattle cohort, HIV-1 transmission linkages were identified between white male adolescents and older MSM adults. Interventions aimed at age-discrepant pairs may reduce HIV-1 infections in adolescent males.

FOXO3, IRF4, and xIAP Are Correlated with Immune Activation in HIV-1-Infected Men Who Have Sex with Men During Early HIV Infection

Forkhead box O (FOXO)1, FOXO3, interferon regulatory factor (IRF)4, X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (xIAP), and E74-like factor (ELF)4 have been described as important regulators of T cell functions and differentiation. However, whether these molecules are associated with HIV-1 disease progression is still unknown. In this study, we showed that the levels of FOXO3, IRF4, and xIAP mRNA in rapid progressors (RPs) were significantly higher than in HIV-negative healthy controls (HCs). Moreover, FOXO3 expression was positively correlated with HIV-1 viral load and CD4⁺ T cell activation. Remarkably, increased CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cell activation was apparent in RPs compared with typical progressors and HCs. In addition, a profile of higher apoptosis, more CD8⁺ T_EM cells, and fewer CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ Naive T cells were observed in early HIV infection patients with low CD4⁺ T cell counts. Furthermore, in vitro, IRF4 and xIAP expression was enhanced in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from healthy people following T cell receptor stimulation. T cell activation was decreased by treatment with siRNA inhibiting FOXO3, IRF4, and xIAP. Our results show that significantly increased levels of FOXO3, IRF4, and xIAP mRNA in Chinese HIV-1-infected patients were related to T cell immune activation, implicating them as potential targets for developing new therapeutic avenues to slow down HIV-1 disease progression.

Social and Genetic Networks of HIV-1 Transmission in New York City

Background

Sexually transmitted infections spread across contact networks. Partner elicitation and notification are commonly used public health tools to identify, notify, and offer testing to persons linked in these contact networks. For HIV-1, a rapidly evolving pathogen with low per-contact transmission rates, viral genetic sequences are an additional source of data that can be used to infer or refine transmission networks.

Methods and Findings

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene interviews individuals newly diagnosed with HIV and elicits names of sexual and injection drug using partners. By law, the Department of Health also receives HIV sequences when these individuals enter healthcare and their physicians order resistance testing. Our study used both HIV sequence and partner naming data from 1342 HIV-infected persons in New York City between 2006 and 2012 to infer and compare sexual/drug-use named partner and genetic transmission networks. Using these networks, we determined a range of genetic distance thresholds suitable for identifying potential transmission partners. In 48% of cases, named partners were infected with genetically closely related viruses, compatible with but not necessarily representing or implying, direct transmission. Partner pairs linked through the genetic similarity of their HIV sequences were also linked by naming in 53% of cases. Persons who reported high-risk heterosexual contact were more likely to name at least one partner with a genetically similar virus than those reporting their risk as injection drug use or men who have sex with men.

Conclusions

We analyzed an unprecedentedly large and detailed partner tracing and HIV sequence dataset and determined an empirically justified range of genetic distance thresholds for identifying potential transmission partners. We conclude that genetic linkage provides more reliable evidence for identifying potential transmission partners than partner naming, highlighting the importance and complementarity of both epidemiological and molecular genetic surveillance for characterizing regional HIV-1 epidemics.

Understanding the path over which viruses such as HIV have been transmitted may be crucial for directing public health resources and guiding policy decisions. Contact tracing of named sexual and injection drug-use partners of people recently diagnosed with HIV is an indispensible tool for reconstructing this transmission network. Viral genetic sequence data—routinely collected by public health agencies—can also be used to infer the dynamics of HIV transmission. We analyzed partner naming and viral genetic sequence data in 1342 people living with HIV in New York City reported to the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene between 2006 and 2012. Genetically linked partners were more likely to be named partners than named partners were to be genetically linked. This finding indicates that genetic sequence data are better than partner naming data for reconstructing this viral transmission network. Importantly, the success rate in naming a genetically linked partner varied by transmission risk category (e.g., men who have sex with men, heterosexuals, and injection drug users). This study validates the use viral genetic sequences in reconstructing these viral transmission networks in a public health surveillance setting.