Can combination prevention strategies reduce HIV transmission in generalized epidemic settings in Africa? The HPTN 071 (PopART) study plan in South Africa and Zambia

Keep It Up! 3.0: Study protocol for a type III hybrid implementation-effectiveness cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Despite evidence that eHealth approaches can be effective in reducing HIV risk, their implementation requirements for public health scale up are not well established, and effective strategies to bring these programs into practice are still unknown. Keep It Up! (KIU!) is an online program proven to reduce HIV risk among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and ideal candidate to develop and evaluate novel strategies for implementing eHealth HIV prevention programs. KIU! 3.0 is a Type III Hybrid Effectiveness-Implementation cluster randomized trial designed to 1) compare two strategies for implementing KIU!: community-based organizations (CBO) versus centralized direct-to-consumer (DTC) recruitment; 2) examine the effect of strategies and determinants on variability in implementation success; and 3) develop materials for sustainment of KIU! after the trial concludes. In this article, we describe the approaches used to achieve these aims.

METHODS

Using county-level population estimates of YMSM, 66 counties were selected and randomized 2:1 to the CBO and DTC approaches. The RE-AIM model was used to drive outcome measurements, which were collected from CBO staff, YMSM, and technology providers. Mixed-methods research mapped onto the domains of the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research will examine determinants and their relationship with implementation outcomes.

DISCUSSION

In comparing our implementation recruitment models, we are examining two strategies which have shown effectiveness in delivering health technology interventions in the past, yet little is known about their comparative advantages and disadvantages in implementation. The results of the trial will further the understanding of eHealth prevention intervention implementation.

Sexual and Relationship Benefits of a Safer Conception Intervention Among Men with HIV Who Seek to Have Children with Serodifferent Partners in Uganda

Many men with HIV (MWH) in Uganda desire children, yet seldom receive reproductive counseling related to HIV care. Because men are under engaged in safer conception programming, they miss opportunities to reap the benefits of these programs. The objective of this sub-analysis was to explore the relationship and intimacy benefits of integrating safer conception counseling and strategies into HIV care, an emergent theme from exit interviews with men who participated in a pilot safer conception program and their partners. Twenty interviews were conducted with MWH who desired a child in the next year with an HIV-uninfected/status unknown female partner, and separate interviews were conducted with female partners (n = 20); of the 40 interviews, 28 were completed by both members of a couple. Interviews explored experiences participating in The Healthy Families program, which offered MWH safer conception counseling and access to specific strategies. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Three major subthemes or "pathways" to the relationship and intimacy benefits associated with participation in the program emerged: (1) improved dyadic communication; (2) joint decision-making and power equity in the context of reproduction; and (3) increased sexual and relational intimacy, driven by reduced fear of HIV transmission and relationship dissolution. These data suggest that the intervention not only helped couples realize their reproductive goals; it also improved relationship dynamics and facilitated intimacy, strengthening partnerships and reducing fears of separation. Directly addressing these benefits with MWH and their partners may increase engagement with HIV prevention strategies for conception.

Modeling Combination Hepatitis C Virus Treatment and Prevention Strategies in a Network of People Who Inject Drugs in the United States

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment as prevention (TasP) strategies can contribute to HCV microelimination, yet complimentary interventions such as opioid agonist therapies (OAT) with methadone or buprenorphine and syringe services programs (SSPs) may improve the prevention impact. This modeling study estimates the impact of scaling up the combination of OAT and SSPs with HCV TasP in a network of people who inject drugs (PWID) in the United States.

METHODS

Using empirical data from Hartford, Connecticut, we deployed a stochastic block model to simulate an injection network of 1574 PWID. We used a susceptible-infected model for HCV and human immunodeficiency virus to evaluate the effectiveness of several HCV TasP strategies, including in combination with OAT and SSP scale-up, over 20 years.

RESULTS

At the highest HCV prevalence (75%), when OAT coverage is increased from 10% to 40%, combined with HCV treatment of 10% per year and SSP scale up to 40%, the time to achieve microelimination is reduced from 18.4 to 11.6 years. At the current HCV prevalence (60%), HCV TasP strategies as low as 10% coverage per year may achieve HCV microelimination within 10 years, with minimal impact from additional OAT scale-up. Strategies based on mass initial HCV treatment (50 per 100 PWID the first year followed by 5 per 100 PWID thereafter) were most effective in settings with HCV prevalence of 60% or lower.

CONCLUSIONS

Scale-up of HCV TasP is the most effective strategy for microelimination of HCV. OAT scale-up, however, scale-up may be synergistic toward achieving microelimination goals when HCV prevalence exceeds 60% and when HCV treatment coverage is 10 per 100 PWID per year or lower.

Costing the implementation of public health interventions in resource-limited settings: a conceptual framework

BACKGROUND

Failing to account for the resources required to successfully implement public health interventions can lead to an underestimation of costs and budget impact, optimistic cost-effectiveness estimates, and ultimately a disconnect between published evidence and public health decision-making.

METHODS

We developed a conceptual framework for assessing implementation costs. We illustrate the use of this framework with case studies involving interventions for tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS in resource-limited settings.

RESULTS

Costs of implementing public health interventions may be conceptualized as occurring across three phases: design, initiation, and maintenance. In the design phase, activities include developing intervention components and establishing necessary infrastructure (e.g., technology, standard operating procedures). Initiation phase activities include training, initiation of supply chains and quality assurance procedures, and installation of equipment. Implementation costs in the maintenance phase include ongoing technical support, monitoring and evaluation, and troubleshooting unexpected obstacles. Within each phase, implementation costs can be incurred at the site of delivery ("site-specific" costs) or more centrally ("above-service" or "central" costs). For interventions evaluated in the context of research studies, implementation costs should be classified as programmatic, research-related, or shared research/program costs. Purely research-related costs are often excluded from analysis of programmatic implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

In evaluating public health interventions in resource-limited settings, accounting for implementation costs enables more realistic estimates of budget impact and cost-effectiveness and provides important insights into program feasibility, scale-up, and sustainability. Assessment of implementation costs should be planned prospectively and performed in a standardized manner to ensure generalizability.

Treatment as Prevention: Concepts and Challenges for Reducing HIV Incidence

Four of the largest HIV prevention trials have been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, enrolling hundreds of thousands of participants in catchment areas of millions of people. The trials have focused on community-level interventions to increase diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to improve health and reduce HIV transmission. Universal test-and-treat strategies are deployed to achieve viral suppression thereby reducing risk to uninfected persons, known as treatment as prevention (TasP).

Assessing the feasibility of a life history calendar to measure HIV risk and health in older South Africans

Life history calendars capture patterns of behavior over time, uncovering transitions and trajectories. Despite the growing numbers of older persons living with HIV in southern Africa, little is known about how HIV testing and risk unfold in this population. Operationalizing a life course approach with the use of an innovative Testing and Risk History Calendar [TRHC], we collected pilot data on older South Africans' risk and HIV testing. We found older persons were able to provide (1) reference points to facilitate recall over a 10-year period, (2) specifics about HIV tests during that decade, and (3) details that contextualize the testing data, such as living arrangements, relationships, and health status. Interviewer debriefing sessions after each interview captured information on context and links across domains. On a larger scale, the TRHC has potential to reveal pathways between sexual behavior, HIV testing and risk perception, and health at older ages.

HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters in nine European countries and Canada: association with demographic and clinical factors

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) is important, especially in large-scale datasets, for designing prevention programmes and public health intervention strategies. We used a large-scale HIV-1 sequence dataset from nine European HIV cohorts and one Canadian, to identify MTCs and investigate factors associated with the probability of belonging to MTCs.

METHODS

To identify MTCs, we applied maximum likelihood inferences on partial pol sequences from 8955 HIV-positive individuals linked to demographic and clinical data. MTCs were defined using two different criteria: clusters with bootstrap support >75% (phylogenetic confidence criterion) and clusters consisting of sequences from a specific region at a proportion of >75% (geographic criterion) compared to the total number of sequences within the network. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with MTC clustering.

RESULTS

Although 3700 (41%) sequences belonged to MTCs, proportions differed substantially by country and subtype, ranging from 7% among UK subtype C sequences to 63% among German subtype B sequences. The probability of belonging to an MTC was independently less likely for women than men (OR = 0.66; P < 0.001), older individuals (OR = 0.79 per 10-year increase in age; P < 0.001) and people of non-white ethnicity (OR = 0.44; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.70; P = 0.002 for black and 'other' versus white, respectively). It was also more likely among men who have sex with men (MSM) than other risk groups (OR = 0.62; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.69; P = 0.002 for people who inject drugs, and sex between men and women, respectively), subtype B (ORs 0.36-0.70 for A, C, CRF01 and CRF02 versus B; all P < 0.05), having a well-estimated date of seroconversion (OR = 1.44; P < 0.001), a later calendar year of sampling (ORs 2.01-2.61 for all post-2002 periods versus pre-2002; all P < 0.01), and being naïve to antiretroviral therapy at sampling (OR = 1.19; P = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion (>40%) of individuals belonged to MTCs. Notably, the HIV epidemic dispersal appears to be driven by subtype B viruses spread within MSM networks. Expansion of regional epidemics seems mainly associated with recent MTCs, rather than the growth of older, established ones. This information is important for designing prevention and public health intervention strategies.

Assessing Individual and Disseminated Effects in Network-Randomized Studies

Implementation trials often involve clustering via risk networks, where only some participants directly receive the intervention. The individual effect is that among directly treated persons beyond being in an intervention network; the disseminated effect is that among persons engaged with those directly treated. In this article, we employ a causal inference framework and discuss assumptions and estimators for individual and disseminated effects and apply them to the HIV Prevention Trials Network 037 Study. HIV Prevention Trials Network 037 was a phase III, network-level, randomized controlled human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention trial conducted in the United States and Thailand from 2002 to 2006 that recruited injection drug users, who were assigned to either an intervention group or a control group, and their risk network members, who received no direct intervention. Combining individual and disseminated effects, we observed a 35% composite rate reduction in the adjusted model (risk ratio = 0.65, 95% confidence interval: 0.47, 0.90). Methodology is now available for estimating the full set of these effects, enhancing knowledge gained from network-randomized trials. Although the overall effect gains validity from network randomization, we show that it will generally be less than the composite effect. Additionally, if only index participants benefit from the intervention, as the network size increases, the overall effect tends toward the null-an unfortunate and misleading conclusion.

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Implications for Health Promotion

Evidence has been accumulating in recent years that individuals with HIV who are effectively treated with antiretroviral drugs are highly unlikely to transmit the virus to their sexual partners. This approach has great potential to contribute to ongoing prevention efforts and has been termed 'treatment as prevention'. International political momentum has been building in recent years to attempt to significantly reduce new HIV infections globally and end the epidemic by 2030. In pursuit of such aims a number of local health authorities and communities have adopted intensified 'test and treat' strategies to quickly diagnose infections and reduce the risk of onward transmission through an immediate offer of treatment. These have most commonly been driven through enhancements to clinical services and health promoters have been engaged in limited ways. People with HIV often have high rates of health literacy and are now expressing interest in knowing more about how treatment as prevention might work to reduce their individual risk of sexual transmission. For some this represents an added risk reduction measure and for others it may replace condoms. There is currently an opportunity for health promotors to engage with this approach both to exploit its prevention benefits and to counter the stigma that attaches to HIV infectiousness. It is hoped that any reduction in stigma and fear of transmission will help improve the quality of social and sexual relationships among affected groups.

The impact of a therapeutic exercise intervention on depression and body self-image in HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION

Attitudes, responses, and reactions of HIV-positive women in three sub-Saharan African regions toward a therapeutic exercise intervention, aimed to determine the presence of depression and low body self-image, were captured. This provided insight into body satisfaction and desire to exercise (Stage 1, n=60), body self-image and depression (Stage 2, n=60), and overall concerns around the often adverse side effects of antiretroviral treatment (ART). A program of therapeutic (specialty) exercise was developed for the experimental design (Stage 2), to quantify the psychological side effects of these variables.

METHODOLOGY

Stage 1 constituted a qualitative exploration into attitudes and perceptions around ART, toxicity, health concerns, metabolic irregularities (lipodystrophy), body shape and size dissatisfaction, and cultural attitudes toward exercise. This stage deployed brief informal face-to-face interviews, based on the World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) AIDS Inventory, in three sub-Saharan African regions (including provincial and district hospitals, nongovernmental organizations, voluntary counseling and testing/HIV and testing centers, and primary care outpatient clinics). Stage 2 of the study comprised a quantitative experimental design, conducted on a sample of HIV-positive women (mean age=39.0 years; mean years on ART=5.5; 86% black) in three selected HIV outpatient clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa.

DATA ANALYSIS

The collated data sets from both stages of the research were presented, analyzed, and interpreted (thematic analyses [Stage 1] and statistical analyses [Stage 2]) using the body self-image questionnaire and Beck's depression inventory.

RESULTS

Stage 1 outlined participants' concerns and reports around 1) body shape and size, including long-term effects of ART and 2) attitudes toward exercise, as a function of HIV status. Stage 2 represented pre- and posttest statistics, showing low statistical means for both the experiment and the control groups, with statistical significance for four out of nine items of subscales of body self-image questionnaire.

Shifting the HIV Paradigm from Care to Cure: Proceedings from the Caribbean Expert Summit in Barbados, August 2017

The CCAS EXPERT SUMMIT convened an array of international experts in Barbados on August 27-31, 2017 under the theme "From Care to Cure-Shifting the HIV Paradigm." The Caribbean Cytometry & Analytical Society (CCAS) partnered with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) to deliver a program that reviewed the advances in antiretroviral therapy and the public health benefits accruing from treatment as prevention. Particular emphasis was placed on reexamining stigma and discrimination through a critical appraisal of whether public health messaging and advocacy had kept pace with the advances in medicine. Persistent fear of HIV driving discriminatory behavior was widely reported in different regions and sectors, including the healthcare profession itself; continued fear of the disease was starkly misaligned with the successes of new medical treatments and progress toward the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. The summit therefore adopted the mantra "Test-Treat-Defeat" to help engage with the public in a spirit of optimism aimed at creating a more conducive environment for persons to be tested and treated and, thereby, help reduce HIV disease and stigma at the individual and community levels.

Consensus statement: Supporting Safer Conception and Pregnancy For Men And Women Living with and Affected by HIV

Safer conception interventions reduce HIV incidence while supporting the reproductive goals of people living with or affected by HIV. We developed a consensus statement to address demand, summarize science, identify information gaps, outline research and policy priorities, and advocate for safer conception services. This statement emerged from a process incorporating consultation from meetings, literature, and key stakeholders. Three co-authors developed an outline which was discussed and modified with co-authors, working group members, and additional clinical, policy, and community experts in safer conception, HIV, and fertility. Co-authors and working group members developed and approved the final manuscript. Consensus across themes of demand, safer conception strategies, and implementation were identified. There is demand for safer conception services. Access is limited by stigma towards PLWH having children and limits to provider knowledge. Efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and acceptability data support a range of safer conception strategies including ART, PrEP, limiting condomless sex to peak fertility, home insemination, male circumcision, STI treatment, couples-based HIV testing, semen processing, and fertility care. Lack of guidelines and training limit implementation. Key outstanding questions within each theme are identified. Consumer demand, scientific data, and global goals to reduce HIV incidence support safer conception service implementation. We recommend that providers offer services to HIV-affected men and women, and program administrators integrate safer conception care into HIV and reproductive health programs. Answers to outstanding questions will refine services but should not hinder steps to empower people to adopt safer conception strategies to meet reproductive goals.

"I was referred from the other side": Gender and HIV testing among older South Africans living with HIV

South Africa has a Universal Test and Treat (UTT) policy in place to ensure that everyone tests for HIV and can access treatment if they test positive. The aim of this study is to document the pathways that older South Africans who are living with HIV take to access testing and treatment in this context. Despite the aging of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and clear evidence that testing older persons (over age 50) is necessary, very little is known about the circumstances under which older persons test for HIV or their motivations for doing so. In this study, we analyze 21 qualitative, in-depth interviews with women and men aged 50 and over who are living with HIV from two townships outside of Cape Town. Using grounded theory to specify emerging themes, we find similarities and differences between older men and women in their pathways to testing. Men primarily test for HIV when their spouse is diagnosed or in connection with TB testing and treatment. Older women, who are more likely to be widowed or divorced, often test for HIV only when they are symptomatic or not responding appropriately to care for non-communicable diseases. Most importantly, we find that older South Africans do not seek testing as a response to risk. Instead, older men and women test only once they are symptomatic and referred by a provider, or as a result of a partner's status. Our respondents, particularly the women, expressed "shock" and confusion at learning they were HIV-positive because they do not see themselves as at risk of acquiring HIV. Because the benefits of UTT are greatest with early detection and treatment, older persons' tendency to test at such a late stage of illness decreases the individual and population level advantages of UTT. More research is needed to understand older persons' risk and testing behavior so that policy and programs include HIV testing messages that reach this population.

"The difference that makes a difference": highlighting the role of variable contexts within an HIV Prevention Community Randomised Trial (HPTN 071/PopART) in 21 study communities in Zambia and South Africa

This paper explores contextual heterogeneity within a community randomised trial HPTN 071 (Population Effects of Antiretroviral Treatment to Reduce HIV Transmission) carried out in 21 study communities (12 Zambian, 9 South African). The trial evaluates the impact of a combination HIV prevention package (including household-based HIV counselling and testing and anti-retroviral treatment (ART) eligibility regardless of CD4-count) on HIV incidence. The selection, matching and randomisation of study communities relied on key epidemiological and demographic variables and community and stakeholder support. In 2013, following the selection of study communities, a "Broad Brush Survey" (BBS) approach was used to rapidly gather qualitative data on each study community, prior to the implementation of the trial intervention. First-year process indicator intervention data (2014-2015) were collected during the household-based intervention by community lay workers. Using an open/closed typology of urban communities (indicating more or less heterogeneity), this qualitative inquiry presents key features of 12 Zambian communities using a list of four meta-indicators (physical features, social organisation, networks and community narratives). These indicators are then compared with four intervention process indicators in a smaller set of four study communities. The process indicators selected for this analysis indicate response to the intervention (uptake) amongst adults. The BBS qualitative data are used to interpret patterns of similarity and variability in the process indicators across four communities. We found that meta-indicators of local context helped to interpret patterns of similarity and variability emerging across and within the four communities. Features especially significant for influencing heterogeneity in process indicators include proportion of middle-class residents, proximity to neighbouring communities and town centre, the scale of the informal economy, livelihood-linked mobility, presence of HIV stakeholders over time and commitment to community action. Future interdisciplinary analysis is needed to explore if these patterns of difference continue to hold up over the full intervention period and all intervention communities.

Good Health and Moral Responsibility: Key Concepts Underlying the Interpretation of Treatment as Prevention in South Africa and Zambia Before Rolling Out Universal HIV Testing and Treatment

Gauging community responses to the WHO 2015 recommendation to provide antiretroviral treatment (ART) to all people living with HIV (PLHIV) is critical. There is limited qualitative evidence on the acceptability of this Universal Test and Treat (UTT) strategy or community understanding of the impact of ART on reducing HIV transmission, promoted as Treatment as Prevention (TasP). This article explores early understanding of UTT and TasP in 21 urban communities in South Africa and Zambia in 2013 before a community randomized trial of combination prevention-HPTN 071 (PopART). It draws on participatory research conducted in each community, which carried out group discussions and interviews with 1202 respondents and 203 structured observations. Participants were largely unfamiliar with the concepts of UTT and TasP. They were concerned about an accompanying de-emphasis on sexual behavior change. Treatment and prevention seemed, at first glance, to be experienced separately. With the exception of the prevention of mother-to-child transmission, prevention seldom came into discussions about ART. This was partly because this science had not yet been explained to many and also because it was not an easy fit. Contemplating the link between treatment and prevention, participants emphasized both PLHIV taking care of themselves through good health and preventing disease progression and the moral responsibility of PLHIV to prevent HIV transmission. To avoid igniting moralizing and blaming when introducing UTT and TasP, we should capitalize on the "taking care of yourself" legacy while boosting public responsibility through broad antistigma education and patient empowerment efforts.

Who Needs to Be Targeted for HIV Testing and Treatment in KwaZulu-Natal? Results From a Population-Based Survey

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Introduction:

Identifying gaps in HIV testing and treatment is essential to design specific strategies targeting those not accessing HIV services. We assessed the prevalence and factors associated with being HIV untested, unaware, untreated, and virally unsuppressed in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Methods:

Cross-sectional population-based survey. People aged 15–59 years were eligible. Interviews, HIV testing, and blood collection for antiretroviral drug presence test, CD4, and viral load were done at the participants' home.

Results:

Of the 5649 individuals included, 81.4% (95% CI: 79.8 to 82.9) had previously been tested. HIV prevalence was 25.2%. HIV-positivity awareness rate was 75.2% (95% CI: 72.9 to 77.4). Of all unaware, 73.3% of people were aged <35 years and 68.7% were women. Antiretroviral therapy coverage was 75.0% (95% CI: 72.0 to 77.8) among those eligible for treatment (CD4 < 350, PMTCT-B) and 53.1% (95% CI: 50.4 to 55.7) among all HIV-positive individuals. Viral load was <1000 copies per milliliter in 57.1% of all HIV-positive individuals. Although 66.3% and 71.7% of people with viral load ≥1000 copies per milliliter were people aged <35 years and women respectively, men had 4.4, 1.8, 1.6, and 1.7 times the odds of being untested, unaware, untreated, and virally unsuppressed. In addition, people with more than 1 sexual partner had 1.3, 2.2, and 1.9 times the odds of being untested, unaware, and untreated.

Conclusions:

The majority of HIV-positive people unaware of their status, untreated, and virally unsuppressed were individuals aged <35 years and women. However, men were disproportionately untested, unaware HIV positivity, untreated, and virally unsuppressed. In this context, HIV testing and treatment should be prioritized to target young people and women, whereas novel strategies are necessary to reach men.

HIV Self-Testing: a Review of Current Implementation and Fidelity

Oral HIV self-testing is an innovative and potentially high-impact means to increase HIV-case identification globally. As a screening test, oral HIV self-testing offers the potential for increased adoption through greater convenience and privacy, and the potential to increase the proportion of the population who test regularly. Research on how best to translate the innovation of oral self-testing to high-risk populations is underway. Currently only one oral HIV self-test kit is FDA-approved (OraQuick In-Home HIV Test) and available for retail sale. In the present report we review recent studies on the dissemination, adoption, and implementation of oral HIV testing. Prior work has focused primarily on adoption, but recent studies have begun to identify methods for improving dissemination and problems associated with self-implementation. At present a major barrier to wider adoption is the relatively high retail cost of the oral HIV test kit. Significant but minor barriers are represented by overly complex instructional materials for some population segments, and dissemination programs of unknown efficacy. Theoretical and practical suggestions for conducting research on dissemination, adoption, and implementation of oral HIV testing are discussed.

The Spear and Shield intervention to increase the availability and acceptability of voluntary medical male circumcision in Zambia: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background

Widespread voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) in Africa could avert an estimated 3·436 million HIV infections and 300,000 deaths over the next 10 years. Most Zambian men, however, have expressed little interest in undergoing VMMC. This study tested the effect of an intervention designed to increase demand for VMMC among these “hard to reach” men.

Methods

This cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted from 2012 to 2014 in Lusaka, Zambia (HIV prevalence = 20·8%). 13 Community Health Centers (CHCs) were stratified by HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) rates and patient census and randomly assigned (5:5:3) to Experimental, Control or Observation Only conditions. CHC health care providers at all 13 sites received VMMC training. Trial statisticians did not participate in randomization. 800 uncircumcised HIV-, post-VCT men, 400 per condition, were recruited; female partners were invited to participate. The primary outcome was the likelihood of VMMC by 12 months post-intervention. The trial registration is NCT 01688167.

Findings

161 participants in the Experimental condition underwent VMMC as compared to 96 Control participants [adjusted odds ratio = 2·45, 95% CI = (1·24, 4·90) p = ·0166]. Post-VMMC condom use among Experimental condition participants increased compared to baseline, with no change among Control participants. No adverse events related to study participation were reported.

Interpretation

The Spear and Shield intervention combined with VMMC training was associated with a significant increase in the number of VMMCs performed as well as in condom use among “hard to reach” Zambian men. Results support the importance of comprehensive HIV prevention programs that increase supply of and demand for VMMC services.

Funding

NIH/NIMH R01MH095539.

HIV Infection and AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Status, Challenges and Opportunities

Global trends in HIV infection demonstrate an overall increase in HIV prevalence and substantial declines in AIDS related deaths largely attributable to the survival benefits of antiretroviral treatment. Sub-Saharan Africa carries a disproportionate burden of HIV, accounting for more than 70% of the global burden of infection. Success in HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa has the potential to impact on the global burden of HIV. Notwithstanding substantial progress in scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART), sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 74% of the 1.5 million AIDS related deaths in 2013. Of the estimated 6000 new infections that occur globally each day, two out of three are in sub-Saharan Africa with young women continuing to bear a disproportionate burden. Adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years have up to eight fold higher rates of HIV infection compared to their male peers. There remains a gap in women initiated HIV prevention technologies especially for women who are unable to negotiate the current HIV prevention options of abstinence, behavior change, condoms and medical male circumcision or early treatment initiation in their relationships. The possibility of an AIDS free generation cannot be realized unless we are able to prevent HIV infection in young women. This review will focus on the epidemiology of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa, key drivers of the continued high incidence, mortality rates and priorities for altering current epidemic trajectory in the region. Strategies for optimizing the use of existing and increasingly limited resources are included.

Innovative Strategies for Scale up of Effective Combination HIV Prevention Interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa

For the last three decades, sub-Saharan Africa has been the epicentre of the HIV epidemic. Some key drivers of the epidemic are specific to this region and there is an urgent need to develop context-specific strategies to reduce HIV-related burden. Implementation frameworks should endeavour to combine structural, behavioural and biomedical interventions and the future of the HIV response involves embracing different approaches for different populations; it is not 'one-size fits all approach'. Expanded use of community-based interventions will be key in expanding the role of antiretroviral treatment as prevention (TasP) in the region. For TasP to be effective, high antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage rates need to be attained. Data from programmatic trials currently underway will provide crucial data to guide the future implementation of TasP.

Investigating combination HIV prevention: isolated interventions or complex system

Introduction

Treatment as prevention has mobilized new opportunities in preventing HIV transmission and has led to bold new UNAIDS targets in testing, treatment coverage and transmission reduction. These will require not only an increase in investment but also a deeper understanding of the dynamics of combining behavioural, biomedical and structural HIV prevention interventions. High-income countries are making substantial investments in combination HIV prevention, but is this investment leading to a deeper understanding of how to combine interventions? The combining of interventions involves complexity, with many strategies interacting with non-linear and multiplying rather than additive effects.

Discussion

Drawing on a recent scoping study of the published research evidence in HIV prevention in high-income countries, this paper argues that there is a gap between the evidence currently available and the evidence needed to guide the achieving of these bold targets. The emphasis of HIV prevention intervention research continues to look at one intervention at a time in isolation from its interactions with other interventions, the community and the socio-political context of their implementation. To understand and evaluate the role of a combination of interventions, we need to understand not only what works, but in what circumstances, what role the parts need to play in their relationship with each other, when the combination needs to adapt and identify emergent effects of any resulting synergies. There is little development of evidence-based indicators on how interventions in combination should achieve that strategic advantage and synergy. This commentary discusses the implications of this ongoing situation for future research and the required investment in partnership. We suggest that systems science approaches, which are being increasingly applied in other areas of public health, could provide an expanded vocabulary and analytic tools for understanding these complex interactions, relationships and emergent effects.

Conclusions

Relying on the current linear but disconnected approaches to intervention research and evidence we will miss the potential to achieve and understand system-level synergies. Given the challenges in sustaining public health and HIV prevention investment, meeting the bold UNAIDS targets that have been set is likely to be dependent on achieving systems level synergies.

Male circumcision and HIV infection among sexually active men in Malawi

BACKGROUND

The HIV epidemic remains a major health challenge all over the world. In 2013, an estimated 35million people were living with HIV globally. Male circumcision is increasingly being adopted as a method of HIV prevention. WHO and UNAIDS have advised that male circumcision be added to current HIV interventions. Malawi is one of the countries hardest hit by HIV/AIDS with a prevalence rate of 11 % and male circumcision prevalence of 21.6 % in 2010. Prior to 2011, traditional male circumcision in Malawi was the dominant form of male circumcision, mainly for cultural and religious reasons. This paper looks at male circumcision as a prevention method against HIV by examining the relationship between male circumcision and HIV status among Malawian men.

METHODS

The data used were collected as part of the 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey. The methodology used in the 2010 MDHS has been comprehensively described by the National Statistical Office of Malawi and ICF Macro. Our analysis is based on men aged 15-54 years who were tested for HIV and responded to questions on circumcision during the survey. Sixty one percent of the 7175 men interviewed in the MDHS, qualified for this analysis. The sample was weighted to ensure representativeness. Frequencies, cross-tabulations, univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were conducted. Differences in the prevalence of HIV infection among circumcised and uncircumcised men were determined with Chi-squared tests.

RESULTS

There is no significant difference in HIV prevalence between circumcised (12 %) and uncircumcised men (10 %). Among circumcised men, age and number of lifetime partners are the dominant correlates of HIV status. Additionally, circumcised men who have had ritual sex are two times more likely (OR = 2.399) to be HIV+ compared to circumcised men who have never had ritual sex.

CONCLUSION

This study has demonstrated that traditional male circumcision was not associated with HIV infection in pre-2010 Malawi. Among circumcised men, age and number of lifetime partners are correlates to HIV status while circumcised men who have had ritual sex are more likely to be diagnosed with HIV than circumcised men who have not had ritual sex.

Precision of the Kalon Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 IgG ELISA: an international inter-laboratory assessment

BACKGROUND

The commercial Kalon HSV-2 IgG ELISA is currently recommended for research use in sub-Saharan Africa because of its superior accuracy compared to other serologic assays. However, there are no data on key precision parameters of Kalon such as inter-operator variation, repeatability, and reproducibility, thus contributing to a barrier for its acceptance and use in clinical trials in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated the analytical and field precision of the Kalon HSV-2 IgG ELISA.

METHODS

A total of 600 HIV-infected and uninfected serum samples from South Africa and Zambia, previously tested by the gold standard University of Washington HSV western blot (UW-WB), were tested using Kalon by two technologists in an United States reference laboratory. Aliquots of 183 samples were retested using Kalon by an on-site technologist in a South African laboratory and a Zambian laboratory.

RESULTS

Intra-assay variation was below 10 %. Intra-assay, intra-laboratory, and inter-laboratory correlation and agreement were significantly high (p < 0.01). In comparison to the UW-WB, accurate performance of Kalon was reproducible by each operator and laboratory. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated high selectivity of Kalon in the overall study population (area under the curve = 0.95, 95%CI = 0.92-0.97).

DISCUSSION

Kalon is a robust assay with high precision and reproducibility. Accordingly, operator errorlikely does not contribute to the variability observed in Kalon's specificity throughout sera from sub-Saharan Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

In populations with optimal diagnostic accuracy, Kalon is a reliable stand-alone method for on-site HSV-2 IgG antibody detection.

Time to eligibility for antiretroviral therapy in adults with CD4 cell count > 500 cells/μL in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

Understanding of progression to antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility and associated factors remains limited. The objectives of this analysis were to determine the time to ART eligibility and to explore factors associated with disease progression in adults with early HIV infection.

METHODS

HIV-infected adults (≥ 18 years old) with CD4 cell count > 500 cells/μl were enrolled in the study at three primary health care clinics, and a sociodemographic, behavioural and partnership-level questionnaire was administered. Participants were followed 6-monthly and ART eligibility was determined using a CD4 cell count threshold of 350 cells/μl. Kaplan - Meier and Cox proportional hazard regression modelling were used in the analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 206 adults contributed 381 years of follow-up; 79 (38%) reached the ART eligibility threshold. Median time to ART eligibility was shorter for male patients (12.0 months) than for female patients (33.9 months). Male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.82-5.39], residing in a household with food shortage in the previous year (aHR 1.58; 95% CI 0.99-2.54), and taking nutritional supplements in the first 6 months after enrolment (aHR 2.06; 95% CI 1.11-3.83) were associated with shorter time to ART eligibility. Compared with reference CD4 cell count ≤  559 cells/μl, higher CD4 cell count was associated with longer time to ART eligibility [aHR 0.46 (95% CI 0.25-0.83) for CD4 cell count 560-632 cells/μl; aHR 0.30 (95% CI 0.16-0.57) for CD4 cell count 633-768 cells/μl; and aHR 0.17 (95% CI 0.08-0.38) for CD4 cell count > 768 cells/μl].

CONCLUSIONS

Over one in three adults with CD4 cell count > 500 cells/μl became eligible for ART at a CD4 cell count threshold of 350 cells/μl over a median of 2 years. The shorter time to ART eligibility in male patients suggests a possible need for sex-specific pre-ART care and monitoring strategies.

A composite likelihood approach for estimating HIV prevalence in the presence of spatial variation

Since 1990, the World Health Organization has recommended HIV surveillance among pregnant women as an essential surveillance activity for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Despite the widespread availability and potential usefulness of antenatal HIV surveillance, analyses of such data present important challenges. Within an individual clinic, the HIV status of its attendees may be correlated because of similarities in HIV risk among women close in age. Between-clinic correlation may also arise as women often seek antenatal care at clinics located close to their home, and individuals living in nearby communities may share important characteristics or behaviours related to susceptibility. A general estimating equation-based approach for spatially-correlated, binary data such as that antenatal HIV surveillance based on a pairwise composite likelihood has been described. We present an extended version of this model that can accommodate penalized spline estimators and apply it to antenatal HIV surveillance data collected in 2011 in Botswana to estimate the effects of proximity to the 'hotspot' of the country's HIV epidemic and age on HIV prevalence. Finally, we compare the results with a logistic regression analysis, which ignores potential correlation of responses.

Implementation of an electronic fingerprint-linked data collection system: a feasibility and acceptability study among Zambian female sex workers

Background

Patient identification within and between health services is an operational challenge in many resource-limited settings. When following HIV risk groups for service provision and in the context of vaccine trials, patient misidentification can harm patient care and bias trial outcomes. Electronic fingerprinting has been proposed to identify patients over time and link patient data between health services. The objective of this study was to determine 1) the feasibility of implementing an electronic-fingerprint linked data capture system in Zambia and 2) the acceptability of this system among a key HIV risk group: female sex workers (FSWs).

Methods

Working with Biometrac, a US-based company providing biometric-linked healthcare platforms, an electronic fingerprint-linked data capture system was developed for use by field recruiters among Zambian FSWs. We evaluated the technical feasibility of the system for use in the field in Zambia and conducted a pilot study to determine the acceptability of the system, as well as barriers to uptake, among FSWs.

Results

We found that implementation of an electronic fingerprint-linked patient tracking and data collection system was feasible in this relatively resource-limited setting (false fingerprint matching rate of 1/1000 and false rejection rate of <1/10,000) and was acceptable among FSWs in a clinic setting (2 % refusals). However, our data indicate that less than half of FSWs are comfortable providing an electronic fingerprint when recruited while they are working. The most common reasons cited for not providing a fingerprint (lack of privacy/confidentiality issues while at work, typically at bars or lodges) could be addressed by recruiting women during less busy hours, in their own homes, in the presence of “Queen Mothers” (FSW organizers), or in the presence of a FSW that has already been fingerprinted.

Conclusions

Our findings have major implications for key population research and improved health services provision. However, more work needs to be done to increase the acceptability of the electronic fingerprint-linked data capture system during field recruitment. This study indicated several potential avenues that will be explored to increase acceptability.

Estimated age and gender profile of individuals missed by a home-based HIV testing and counselling campaign in a Botswana community

INTRODUCTION

It would be useful to understand which populations are not reached by home-based HIV-1 testing and counselling (HTC) to improve strategies aimed at linking these individuals to care and reducing rates of onward HIV transmission.

METHODS

We present the results of a baseline home-based HTC (HBHTC) campaign aimed at counselling and testing residents aged 16 to 64 for HIV in the north-eastern sector of Mochudi, a community in Botswana with about 44,000 inhabitants. Collected data were compared with population references for Botswana, the United Nations (UN) estimates based on the National Census data and the Botswana AIDS Impact Survey IV (BAIS-IV). Analyzed data and references were stratified by age and gender.

RESULTS

A total of 6238 age-eligible residents were tested for HIV-1; 1247 (20.0%; 95% CI 19.0 to 21.0%) were found to be HIV positive (23.7% of women vs. 13.4% of men). HIV-1 prevalence peaked at 44% in 35- to 39-year-old women and 32% in 40- to 44-year-old men. A lower HIV prevalence rate, 10.9% (95% CI 9.5 to 12.5%), was found among individuals tested for the first time. A significant gender gap was evident in all analyzed subsets. The existing HIV transmission network was analyzed by combining phylogenetic mapping and household structure. Between 62.4 and 71.8% of all HIV-positive individuals had detectable virus. When compared with the UN and BAIS-IV estimates, the proportion of men missed by the testing campaign (48.5%; 95% CI 47.0 to 50.0%) was significantly higher than the proportion of missed women (14.2%; 95% CI 13.2 to 15.3%; p<0.0001). The estimated proportion of missed men peaked at about 60% in the age group 30 to 39 years old. The proportions of missed women were substantially smaller, at approximately 28% within the age groups 30 to 34 and 45 to 49 years old.

CONCLUSIONS

The HBHTC campaign seems to be an efficient tool for reaching individuals who have never been tested previously in southern African communities. However, about half of men from 16 to 64 years old were not reached by the HBHTC, including about 60% of men between 30 and 40 years old. Alternative HTC strategies should be developed to bring these men to care, which will contribute to reduction of HIV incidence in communities.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

HIV treatment-as-prevention research: authors' reply

Till Bärnighausen and colleagues respond to comments by the HPTN 071 (PopART) Study Team, noting the distinction between the different HIV prevention questions the trial will attempt to answer.

Global HIV epidemiology: A guide for strategies in prevention and care

Global trends in HIV incidence are estimated typically by serial prevalence surveys in selected sentinel populations or less often in representative population samples. Incidence estimates are often modeled because cohorts are costly to maintain and are rarely representative of larger populations. From global trends, we can see reason for cautious optimism. Downward trends in generalized epidemics in Africa, concentrated epidemics in persons who inject drugs (PWID), some female sex worker cohorts, and among older men who have sex with men (MSM) have been noted. However, younger MSM and those from minority populations, as with black MSM in the United States, show continued transmission at high rates. Among the many HIV prevention strategies, current efforts to expand testing, linkage to effective care, and adherence to antiretroviral therapy are known as "treatment as prevention" (TasP). A concept first forged for the prevention of mother to child transmission, TasP generates high hopes that persons treated early will derive considerable clinical benefits and that lower infectiousness will reduce transmission in communities. With the global successes of risk reduction for PWID, we have learned that reducing marginalization of the at-risk population, implementation of nonjudgmental and pragmatic sterile needle and syringe exchange programs, and offering of opiate substitution therapy to help persons eschew needle use altogether can work to reduce the HIV epidemic. Never has the urgency of stigma reduction and guarantees of human rights been more urgent; a public health approach to at-risk populations requires that to avail themselves of prevention services and they must feel welcomed.

Rationale and evidence for human immunodeficiency virus treatment as prevention at the individual and population levels

Individual health benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) are becoming clearer. In resource-rich countries, side effects of current ART regimens are minimal. US guidelines recommend ART regardless of CD4 count or viral load. Maintaining an undetectable viral load with ART comes close to eliminating the risk of HIV transmission, leading the US guidelines to recommend universal ART to reduce HIV transmission. Achieving population-level control through treatment as prevention (TasP) may be feasible, but requires considerable investment of resources devoted to HIV testing, linkage to care, ART accessibility, and retention in care. Ongoing studies of TasP will provide insight into achieving meaningful ART coverage.

Sample size considerations in the design of cluster randomized trials of combination HIV prevention

Background Cluster randomized trials have been utilized to evaluate the effectiveness of HIV prevention strategies on reducing incidence. Design of such studies must take into account possible correlation of outcomes within randomized units. Purpose To discuss power and sample size considerations for cluster randomized trials of combination HIV prevention, using an HIV prevention study in Botswana as an illustration. Methods We introduce a new agent-based model to simulate the community-level impact of a combination prevention strategy and investigate how correlation structure within a community affects the coefficient of variation - an essential parameter in designing a cluster randomized trial. Results We construct collections of sexual networks and then propagate HIV on them to simulate the disease epidemic. Increasing level of sexual mixing between intervention and standard-of-care (SOC) communities reduces the difference in cumulative incidence in the two sets of communities. Fifteen clusters per arm and 500 incidence cohort members per community provide 95% power to detect the projected difference in cumulative HIV incidence between SOC and intervention communities (3.93% and 2.34%) at the end of the third study year, using a coefficient of variation 0.25. Although available formulas for calculating sample size for cluster randomized trials can be derived by assuming an exchangeable correlation structure within clusters, we show that deviations from this assumption do not generally affect the validity of such formulas. Limitations We construct sexual networks based on data from Likoma Island, Malawi, and base disease progression on longitudinal estimates from an incidence cohort in Botswana and in Durban as well as a household survey in Mochudi, Botswana. Network data from Botswana and larger sample sizes to estimate rates of disease progression would be useful in assessing the robustness of our model results. Conclusion Epidemic modeling plays a critical role in planning and evaluating interventions for prevention. Simulation studies allow us to take into consideration available information on sexual network characteristics, such as mixing within and between communities as well as coverage levels for different prevention modalities in the combination prevention package.

HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model

Background

The HPTN 052 trial confirmed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can nearly eliminate HIV transmission from successfully treated HIV-infected individuals within couples. Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform the design and monitoring of a new trial aiming to test whether widespread provision of ART is feasible and can substantially reduce population-level HIV incidence.

Methods and Findings

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is a three-arm cluster-randomized trial of 21 large population clusters in Zambia and South Africa, starting in 2013. A combination prevention package including home-based voluntary testing and counseling, and ART for HIV positive individuals, will be delivered in arms A and B, with ART offered universally in arm A and according to national guidelines in arm B. Arm C will be the control arm. The primary endpoint is the cumulative three-year HIV incidence.

We developed a mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by recent data on HIV-1 natural history. We focused on realistically modeling the intervention package. Parameters were calibrated to data previously collected in these communities and national surveillance data.

We predict that, if targets are reached, HIV incidence over three years will drop by >60% in arm A and >25% in arm B, relative to arm C. The considerable uncertainty in the predicted reduction in incidence justifies the need for a trial. The main drivers of this uncertainty are possible community-level behavioral changes associated with the intervention, uptake of testing and treatment, as well as ART retention and adherence.

Conclusions

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial intervention could reduce HIV population-level incidence by >60% over three years. This intervention could serve as a paradigm for national or supra-national implementation. Our analysis highlights the role mathematical modeling can play in trial development and monitoring, and more widely in evaluating the impact of treatment as prevention.