Perioperative risk factors impact outcomes in emergency versus nonemergency surgery differently

Comparing outcomes after emergency thoracic surgery by cardiothoracic versus other surgeons

BACKGROUND

The impact of surgeon subspecialty on postoperative outcomes is relatively unstudied in emergency thoracic surgery. The purpose of this study was to compare the outcomes of patients who undergo emergency thoracic operations by cardiothoracic surgeons versus other surgical subspecialties.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2018). A list of Current Procedural Terminology codes was generated by limiting the database to emergency operations performed by thoracic surgeons. Current Procedural Terminology codes occurring with frequency >10 were then used to search the entire database to identify patients who underwent emergency surgery by any surgeon specialty. Patients were grouped by operative surgeon primary subspecialty (cardiothoracic compared with other). Outcomes were compared using bivariable and multivariable regression analysis. Subgroup analysis was performed for lung and chest wall, hiatal hernia, esophagus, and pericardial operation-specific cohorts.

RESULTS

A total of 4,044 patients were included; 2,162 (53.5%) had emergency operations performed by cardiothoracic surgeons and 1,882 (46.5%) by other surgeons. Patients who underwent operations performed by cardiothoracic surgeons were more likely to have 6 of 18 medical comorbidities (all P < .05). Patients who had pericardial operations by cardiothoracic surgeons had lower risk-adjusted rates of mortality (odds ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.99), renal complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.87), and bleeding (odds ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-0.84). There were no risk-adjusted differences in outcomes in the other subgroups.

CONCLUSION

Patients who underwent emergency pericardial operations by cardiothoracic surgeons had improved postoperative outcomes compared with other surgeon specialties. These differences are important to consider when consulting surgeons for emergency thoracic operations.

Mortality in orthopedic patients: a retrospective review of 333 medical records

BACKGROUND

The burden of orthopedic admissions has notably increased in recent years. Managing orthopedic conditions is challenging in clinical settings. Orthopedic complaints often necessitate urgent medical intervention to prevent complications and mortality. Despite advancements in medical care, some patients still experience severe complications, extended hospital stays, and death following orthopedic admission. In this study, we aimed to explore the distribution of potential risk factors and common patterns in orthopedic patients who died during their hospitalization.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All the patients who were admitted to three tertiary trauma centers with orthopedic complaints from 2010 to 2023 and died during hospitalization were enrolled in this study. Demographic, injury-related, laboratory-related, intervention-related, complication-related, and healthcare-related data were extracted using the patient's medical records. Descriptive analysis of the collected data was performed using the SPSS version 27 software.

RESULTS

333 patients who died in the hospital with orthopedic complaints were included in the study and examined. The mean age of patients in this study was 67.89 years, comprising 68% males and 32% females. Trauma was patients' most common clinical cause of admission (63.7%). The prevalence of death before surgery, death during the first 24 h after surgery, and death after 24 h postoperatively were 26.4%, 18.6%, and 55%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a high prevalence of trauma as a clinical complaint leading to death among patients, emphasizing the importance of developing an integrated protocol for trauma preventive strategies.

Emergency umbilical hernia management: scoping review

BACKGROUND

Umbilical hernias, while frequently asymptomatic, may become acutely symptomatic, strangulated or obstructed, and require emergency treatment. Robust evidence is required for high-quality care in this field. This scoping review aims to elucidate evidence gaps regarding emergency care of umbilical hernias.

METHODS

EMBASE, MEDLINE and CENTRAL databases were searched using a predefined strategy until November 2023. Primary research studies reporting on any aspect of emergency umbilical hernia care and published in the English language were eligible for inclusion. Studies were excluded where emergency umbilical hernia care was not the primary focus and subsets of relevant data were unable to be extracted. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts and full texts, resolving disagreements by consensus or a third reviewer. Data were charted according to core concepts addressed by each study and a narrative synthesis was performed.

RESULTS

Searches generated 534 abstracts, from which 32 full texts were assessed and 14 included in the final review. This encompassed 52 042 patients undergoing emergency umbilical hernia care. Most were retrospective cohort designs (11/14), split between single (6/14) and multicentre (8/14) with only one randomized trial. Most multicentre studies were from national databases (7/8). Themes arising included risk assessment (n = 4), timing of surgery (n = 4), investigations (n = 1), repair method (n = 8, four mesh versus suture; four laparoscopic versus open) and operative outcomes (n = 11). The most commonly reported outcomes were mortality (n = 9) and morbidity (n = 7) rates and length of hospital stay (n = 5). No studies included patient-reported outcomes specific to emergency umbilical hernia repair.

CONCLUSION

This scoping review demonstrates the paucity of high-quality data for this condition. There is a need for randomized trials addressing all aspects of emergency umbilical hernia repair, with patient-reported outcomes.

Validation of the emergency surgery score (ESS) in a UK patient population and comparison with NELA scoring: a retrospective multicentre cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Accurate risk scoring in emergency general surgery (EGS) is vital for consent and resource allocation. The emergency surgery score (ESS) has been validated as a reliable preoperative predictor of postoperative outcomes in EGS but has been studied only in the US population. Our primary aim was to perform an external validation study of the ESS in a UK population. Our secondary aim was to compare the accuracy of ESS and National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) scores.

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study of adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy over three years in two UK centres. ESS was calculated retrospectively. NELA scores and all other variables were obtained from the prospectively collected Emergency Laparotomy and Laparoscopic Scottish Audit (ELLSA) database. The primary and secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission, respectively.

RESULTS

A total of 609 patients were included. Median age was 65 years, 52.7% were female, the overall mortality was 9.9% and 23.8% were admitted to ICU. Both ESS and NELA were equally accurate in predicting 30-day mortality (c-statistic=0.78 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.71-0.85) for ESS and c-statistic=0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.88) for NELA, p=0.196) and predicting postoperative ICU admission (c-statistic=0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.81) for ESS and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85) for NELA, p=0.092).

CONCLUSIONS

In the UK population, ESS and NELA both predict 30-day mortality and ICU admission with no statistically significant difference but with higher c-statistics for NELA score. Both scores have certain advantages, with ESS being validated for a wider range of outcomes.

The use of POTTER (Predictive Optimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk) calculator to predict mortality and complications in patients submitted to Emergency Surgery

INTRODUCTION

the ability of the care team to reliably predict postoperative risk is essential for improvements in surgical decision-making, patient and family counseling, and resource allocation in hospitals. The Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered POTTER (Predictive Optimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk) calculator represents a user-friendly interface and has since been downloaded in its iPhone and Android format by thousands of surgeons worldwide. It was originally developed to be used in non-traumatic emergency surgery patients. However, Potter has not been validated outside the US yet. In this study, we aimed to validate the POTTER calculator in a Brazilian academic hospital.

METHODS

mortality and morbidity were analyzed using the POTTER calculator in both trauma and non-trauma emergency surgery patients submitted to surgical treatment between November 2020 and July 2021. A total of 194 patients were prospectively included in this analysis.

RESULTS

regarding the presence of comorbidities, about 20% of the population were diabetics and 30% were smokers. A total of 47.4% of the patients had hypertensive prednisone. After the analysis of the results, we identified an adequate capability to predict 30-day mortality and morbidity for this group of patients.

CONCLUSION

the POTTER calculator presented excellent performance in predicting both morbidity and mortality in the studied population, representing an important tool for surgical teams to define risks, benefits, and outcomes for the emergency surgery population.

Emergency thoracic surgery patients have worse risk-adjusted outcomes than non-emergency patients

BACKGROUND

Outcomes for patients undergoing emergency thoracic operations have not been well described. This study was designed to compare postoperative outcomes among patients undergoing emergency versus nonemergency thoracic operations.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2018). We identified patients who underwent emergency thoracic operations using current procedural technology codes. Patients were then sorted into 1 of 4 cohorts: lung and chest wall, hiatal hernia, esophagus, and pericardium. Emergency versus nonemergency outcomes were compared. Univariate logistic regression was performed with "emergency status" as the independent variable and 30-day postoperative outcomes as the dependent variables. Multiple logistic regression models were performed to control for preoperative factors.

RESULTS

Of 90,398 thoracic operations analyzed, 4,044 (4.5%) were emergency. Common emergency operations were pericardial window (n = 580, 10.2%), laparoscopic hiatal hernia repair (n = 366, 8.9%), thoracoscopic partial lung decortication (n = 334, 8.1%), thoracoscopic wedge resection (n = 301, 7.3%), thoracoscopic total lung decortication (n = 256, 6.2%), and open repair of hiatal hernia without mesh (n = 254, 6.2%). In all 4 cohorts, 30-day postoperative complications occurred more frequently after emergency surgery. After controlling for patient characteristics, 8 complications were more frequent after emergency lung and chest wall surgery, 5 complications were more frequent after emergency hiatal hernia surgery, and 3 complications were more frequent after emergency pericardium surgery. Risk-adjusted complications were not different after emergency esophageal surgery.

CONCLUSION

Patients undergoing emergency thoracic operations have worse risk-adjusted outcomes than those undergoing nonemergency thoracic operations. Subset analysis is needed to determine what factors contribute to increased adverse outcomes in specific patient populations.

Perioperative mortality of emergency and elective surgical patients in a low-income country: a single institution experience

BACKGROUND

The perioperative mortality rate is an indicator of access to safe anesthesia and surgery. Studies showed higher perioperative mortality rates among low- and middle-income countries. But the specific causes and factors contributing to perioperative death have not been adequately studied in the Ethiopian context.

METHODS

This is a retrospective institutional study of the largest academic medical center in Ethiopia. Data of all patients who were admitted to surgical wards or intensive care and underwent surgical interventions were evaluated for perioperative mortality rate determination. All mortality cases were then evaluated in depth.

RESULTS

Of the 3295 patients evaluated, a total of 148 patients (4.5%) died within 30 days of surgery. By the 7th postoperative day, 69.5% of the perioperative mortality had already occurred. Septic shock contributed to 54.2% of deaths. Emergency surgery patients had more than a twofold higher mortality rate than elective surgery patients (p value < 0.001) and had a 2.6-fold higher rate of dying within 7 days of surgery (p value of 0.02). Patients with ASA performance status of 3 or more had a 1.7-fold higher rate of death within 72 h of surgery (p value of 0.015).

CONCLUSION

More than two thirds of patients died within 7 postoperative days. More emergency patients died than elective counterparts, and emergency cases had a higher rate of dying within 7 days of surgery. Poor ASA performance score was associated with earlier postoperative death. Further prospective multi-institutional studies are warranted to elucidate the factors that contribute to higher postoperative mortality in low-income country patients.

Functional Status is Key to Long-term Survival in Emergency General Surgery Conditions

INTRODUCTION

Emergency General Surgery (EGS) conditions in older patients constitutes a substantial public health burden due to high morbidity and mortality. We sought to utilize a supervised machine learning method to determine combinations of factors with the greatest influence on long-term survival in older EGS patients.

METHODS

We identified community dwelling participants admitted for EGS conditions from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey linked with claims (1992-2013). We categorized three binary domains of multimorbidity: chronic conditions, functional limitations, and geriatric syndromes (such as vision or hearing impairment, falls, incontinence). We also collected EGS disease type, age, and sex. We created a classification and regression tree (CART) model to identify groups of variables associated with our outcome of interest, three-year survival. We then performed Cox proportional hazards analysis to determine hazard ratios for each group with the lowest risk group as reference.

RESULTS

We identified 1960 patients (median age 79 [interquartile range [IQR]: 73, 85], 59.5% female). The CART model identified the presence of functional limitations as the primary splitting variable. The lowest risk group were patient aged ≤81 y with biliopancreatic disease and without functional limitations. The highest risk group was men aged ≥75 y with functional limitations (hazard ratio [HR] 11.09 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.91-20.83)). Notably absent from the CART model were chronic conditions and geriatric syndromes.

CONCLUSIONS

More than the presence of chronic conditions or geriatric syndromes, functional limitations are an important predictor of long-term survival and must be included in presurgical assessment.

Can the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator Accurately Predict Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in Emergency Abdominal Surgery? An Italian Multicenter Analysis

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons NSQIP surgical risk calculator provides an estimation of 30-day postoperative adverse outcomes. It is useful in the identification of high-risk patients needing clinical optimization and supports the informed consent process. The purpose of this study is to validate its predictive value in the Italian emergency setting.

STUDY DESIGN

Six Italian institutions were included. Inclusion diagnoses were acute cholecystitis, appendicitis, gastrointestinal perforation or obstruction. Areas under the receiving operating characteristic curves, Brier score, Hosmer-Lemeshow index, and observed-to-expected event ratio were measured to assess both discrimination and calibration. Effect of the Surgeon Adjustment Score on calibration was then tested. A patient's personal risk ratio was obtained, and a cutoff was chosen to predict mortality with a high negative predicted value.

RESULTS

A total of 2,749 emergency procedures were considered for the analysis. The areas under the receiving operating characteristic curve were 0.932 for death (0.921 to 0.941, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.041) and 0.918 for discharge to nursing or rehabilitation facility (0.907 to 0.929, p < 0.0001; 0.070). Discrimination was also strong (area under the receiving operating characteristic curve >0.8) for renal failure, cardiac complication, pneumonia, venous thromboembolism, serious complication, and any complication. Brier score was informative (<0.25) for all the presented variables. The observed-to-expected event ratios were 1.0 for death and 0.8 for discharge to facility. For almost all other variables, there was a general risk underestimation, but the use of the Surgeon Adjustment Score permitted a better calibration of the model. A risk ratio >3.00 predicted the onset of death with sensitivity = 86%, specificity = 77%, and negative predicted value = 99%.

CONCLUSIONS

The American College of Surgeons NSQIP surgical risk calculator has proved to be a reliable predictor of adverse postoperative outcomes also in Italian emergency settings, with particular regard to mortality. We therefore recommend the use of the surgical risk calculator in the multidisciplinary care of patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery.

Clinical Guideline on Perioperative Management of Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

(1) Background: Patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) are living longer with more comorbidities because of improved medical and surgical management. However, patients with ACLD are at increased risk of perioperative morbidity and mortality; (2) Methods: We conducted a comprehensive review of the literature to support a narrative clinical guideline about the assessment of mortality risk and management of perioperative morbidity in patients with ACLD undergoing surgical procedures; (3) Results: Slight data exist to guide the perioperative management of patients with ACLD, and most recommendations are based on case series and expert opinion. The severity of liver dysfunction, portal hypertension, cardiopulmonary and renal comorbidities, and complexity of surgery and type (elective versus emergent) are predictors of perioperative morbidity and mortality. Expert multidisciplinary teams are necessary to evaluate and manage ACLD before, during, and after surgical procedures; (4) Conclusions: This clinical practice document updates the available data and recommendations to optimize the management of patients with advanced chronic liver disease who undergo surgical procedures.

Value in acute care surgery, part 2: Defining and measuring quality outcomes

ABSTRACT

The prior article in this series delved into measuring cost in acute care surgery, and this subsequent work explains in detail how quality is measured. Specifically, objective quality is based on outcome measures, both from administrative and clinical registry databases from a multitude of sources. Risk stratification is key in comparing similar populations across diseases and procedures. Importantly, a move toward focusing on subjective outcomes like patient-reported outcomes measures and financial well-being are vital to evolving surgical quality measures for the 21st century.

Validation of the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) in a Greek patient population: a prospective bi-institutional cohort study

PURPOSE

The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) is a reliable point-based score that predicts mortality and morbidity in emergency surgery patients. However, it has been validated only in the U.S.

PATIENTS

We aimed to prospectively validate ESS in a Greek patient population.

METHODS

All patients who underwent an emergent laparotomy were prospectively included over a 15-month period. A systematic chart review was performed to collect relevant preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables based on which the ESS was calculated for each patient. The relationship between ESS and 30-day mortality, morbidity (i.e., the occurrence of at least one complication), and the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission was evaluated and compared between the Greek and U.S. patients using the c-statistics methodology. The study was registered on "Research Registry" with the unique identifying number 5901.

RESULTS

A total of 214 patients (102 Greek) were included. The mean age was 64 years, 44% were female, and the median ESS was 7. The most common indication for surgery was hollow viscus perforation (25%). The ESS reliably and incrementally predicted mortality (c-statistics = 0.79 [95% CI 0.67-0.90] and 0.83 [95% CI 0.74-0.92]), morbidity (c-statistics = 0.83 [95% CI 0.76-0.91] and 0.79 [95% CI 0.69-0.88]), and ICU admission (c-statistics = 0.88 [95% CI 0.81-0.96] and 0.84 [95% CI 0.77-0.91]) in both Greek and U.S.

CONCLUSION

The correlation between the ESS and the surgical outcomes was statistically significant in both Greek and U.S. patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. ESS could prove globally useful for preoperative patient counseling and quality-of-care benchmarking.

Frailty and Emergency Surgery: Results of a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Frailty, a "syndrome of loss of reserves," is a decade old concept. Initially it was used mainly in geriatrics but lately its use has been extended into other specialties including surgery. Our main objective was to examine the association between frailty and mortality, between frailty and length of hospital stay (LOS) and frailty and readmission within 30 days in the emergency surgical population.

Methods

Studies reporting on frailty in the emergency surgical population were eligible. MEDLINE (via PubMed), EMBASE, Scopus, CENTRAL, and Web of Science were searched with terms related to acute surgery and frail*. We searched for eligible articles without any restrictions on the 2nd of November 2020. Odds ratios (OR) and weighted mean differences (WMD) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), using a random effect model. Risk of bias assessment was performed according to the recommendations of the Cochrane Collaboration. As the finally selected studies were either prospective or retrospective cohorts, the "Quality In Prognosis Studies" (QUIPS) tool was used.

Results

At the end of the selection process 21 eligible studies with total 562.070 participants from 8 countries were included in the qualitative and the quantitative synthesis. Patients living with frailty have higher chance of dying within 30 days after an emergency surgical admission (OR: 1.99; CI: 1.76-2.21; p < 0.001). We found a tendency of increased LOS with frailty in acute surgical patients (WMD: 4.75 days; CI: 1.79-7.71; p = 0.002). Patients living with frailty have increased chance of 30-day readmission after discharge (OR: 1.36; CI: 1.06-1.75; p = 0.015).

Conclusions

Although there is good evidence that living with frailty increases the chance of unfavorable outcomes, further research needs to be done to assess the benefits and costs of frailty screening for emergency surgical patients.

Systematic Review Registration

The review protocol was registered on the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42021224689).

Short-term Outcomes of Emergent Versus Elective Gastrectomy for Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Study

BACKGROUND

Gastric adenocarcinoma is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide and in the United States, and can present emergently with upper GI hemorrhage, obstruction, or perforation. Few large studies have examined how emergency surgery for gastric cancer affects patient outcomes.

METHODS

All patients from National Surgical Quality Improvement Program with gastric adenocarcinoma from 2005 to 2017 were examined retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis of patient factors and perioperative outcomes was performed. P-values < .05 were significant.

RESULTS

Of 4663 total patients, 115 had emergency surgery and 4548 had elective surgery. Emergency surgery patients were more likely to be non-white, underweight, higher ASA class, require a preoperative blood transfusion, and were less likely to be functionally independent. Multivariate analysis demonstrates an increased likelihood of unplanned intubation, prolonged ventilation, and deep vein thrombosis (DVT).

DISCUSSION

There are no significant differences in mortality, reoperation, or infection when comparing emergent surgery for gastric cancer and elective surgery; however, there is an increased risk of reintubation, prolonged intubation, and DVT in patients undergoing emergent surgery. Patients requiring emergent surgery have more comorbidities, higher blood transfusion requirements, and worse preoperative functional status, and this study demonstrates that they also have worse perioperative outcomes. Previous studies have shown that long-term oncologic outcomes are worse for patients undergoing urgent surgery, and this study shows that perioperative outcomes are also somewhat worse. Thus, definitive surgery performed on a patient who presents emergently with gastric cancer should be considered but may come at the cost of increased perioperative respiratory complications, DVTs, and worse oncologic outcomes.

Adverse outcomes after surgeries in patients with liver cirrhosis among Korean population: A population-based study

Background

Patients with liver cirrhosis have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality or postoperative complication after surgery. However, large-scale studies on the prognosis of these patients after surgery are lacking. The aim of the study was to investigate the adverse outcomes of patients with liver cirrhosis after surgery over five years.

Methods and findings

We used the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service-National Inpatient Samples (HIRA-NIS) between 2012 and 2016. In-hospital mortality and hospital stay were analyzed using the data. Mortality rates according to the surgical department were also analyzed. Of the 1,662,887 patients who underwent surgery, 16,174 (1.0%) patients had cirrhosis. The in-hospital mortality (8.0% vs. 1.0%) and postoperative complications such as respiratory (6.0% vs. 5.3%) or infections (2.8% vs. 2.4%) was significantly higher in patients with cirrhosis than in those without cirrhosis. In addition, the total hospitalization period and use of the intensive care unit were significantly higher in patients with liver cirrhosis. In propensity score matching analysis, liver cirrhosis increased the risk of adverse outcome significantly [adjusted OR (aOR) 1.67, 95% CI 1.56–1.79, P<0.001], especially in-hospital mortality. In liver cirrhosis group, presence of decompensation or varices showed significantly increased postoperative complication or mortality. Adverse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis was the highest in patients who underwent otorhinolaryngology surgery (aOR 1.86), followed by neurosurgery (aOR 1.72), thoracic and cardiovascular surgery (aOR 1.56), and plastic surgery (aOR 1.36).

Conclusion

The adverse outcomes of patients with cirrhosis is significantly high after surgery, despite advances in cirrhosis treatment.

The emergency surgery score (ESS) and outcomes in elderly patients undergoing emergency laparotomy: A post-hoc analysis of an EAST multicenter study

INTRODUCTION

We sought to evaluate whether the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) can accurately predict outcomes in elderly patients undergoing emergent laparotomy (EL).

METHODS

This is a post-hoc analysis of an EAST multicenter study. Between April 2018 and June 2019, all adult patients undergoing EL in 19 participating hospitals were prospectively enrolled, and ESS was calculated for each patient. Using the c-statistic, the correlation between ESS and mortality, morbidity, and need for ICU admission was assessed in three patient age cohorts (65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years old).

RESULTS

715 patients were included, of which 52% were 65-74, 34% were 75-84, and 14% were ≥85 years old; 51% were female, and 77% were white. ESS strongly correlated with postoperative mortality (c-statistic:0.81). Mortality gradually increased from 0% to 20%-60% at ESS of 2, 10 and 16 points, respectively. ESS predicted mortality, morbidity, and need for ICU best in patients 65-74 years old (c-statistic:0.81, 0.75, 0.83 respectively), but its performance significantly decreased in patients ≥85 years (c-statistic:0.72, 0.64, 0.67 respectively).

CONCLUSION

ESS is an accurate predictor of outcome in the elderly EL patient 65-85 years old, but its performance decreases for patients ≥85. Consideration should be given to modify ESS to better predict outcomes in the very elderly patient population.

Biologic mesh implantation is associated with serious abdominal wall complications in patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery: A randomized-controlled clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Open, emergency abdominal surgery is associated with a high incidence of fascial dehiscence and incisional hernia. Implantation of biologic meshes potentially reinforces the abdominal wall and therefore decreases such complications. The aim of this prospective randomized study was to compare the outcome after prophylactic intraperitoneal implantation of a biologic Strattice mesh (Allergan, Dublin, Ireland) with standard abdominal closure in patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery.

METHODS

A two-arm randomized clinical trial was performed in patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery at Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Switzerland, from April 2016 to March 2019. Patients were randomly assigned to prophylactic implantation of a biological intraperitoneal mesh using Strattice, Allergan (mesh group), or standard abdominal closure using a single, continuous running suture (no-mesh group). Because of safety concerns, patient enrollment was closed prematurely.

RESULTS

Eligibility for inclusion was assessed in 61 patients. A total of 48 patients were randomized (21 in the mesh group, 28 in the no-mesh group). No differences in baseline characteristics were found. Abdominal wall complications requiring reoperations were more frequent in the mesh group compared to the no-mesh group (5 [83.3%] of 13 vs. 1 [14.3%] of 13 patients, p = 0.026). Mesh-associated abdominal wall complications included nonintegration of the mesh into the abdominal wall, dissolution of the mesh, and mesh-related infections.

CONCLUSION

In patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery, intraperitoneal biologic Strattice mesh implantation is associated with significantly more frequent abdominal wall complications requiring reoperation. Therefore, the use of such meshes cannot be recommended in the contaminated environment of emergency abdominal surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic, level I.

Performance of the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) Across Different Emergency General Surgery Procedures

BACKGROUND

The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) has been previously validated as a reliable tool to predict postoperative outcomes in emergency general surgery (EGS). The purpose of this study is to assess the differential performance of the ESS in specific EGS procedures.

METHODS

The American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was retrospectively analyzed for patients undergoing EGS between 2007 and 2017. Patients who underwent the following EGS procedures were identified: laparoscopic appendectomy, laparoscopic cholecystectomy, surgery for small bowel obstruction (SBO), colectomy, and incarcerated ventral or inguinal hernia repair. The performance of the ESS in predicting mortality in each procedure was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 467,803 patients underwent EGS (mean age 50 ± 19.9 y, females 241,330 [51.6%]), of which 191,930 (41%) underwent laparoscopic appendectomy, 40,353 (8.6%) underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy, and 35,152 (7.5%) patients underwent surgery for SBO. The ESS correlated extremely well with mortality for patients who underwent laparoscopic appendectomy (area under the curve (AUC) 0.91), laparoscopic cholecystectomy (AUC 0.91), lysis of adhesions for SBO (AUC 0.83), colectomy (AUC 0.83), and incarcerated hernia repair (AUC 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

ESS performance accurately predicts mortality across a wide range of EGS procedures, and its use should be encouraged for preoperative patient counseling and for nationally benchmarking the quality of care of EGS.

Developing a toolbox for identifying when to engage senior surgeons in emergency general surgery: A multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

Having a senior surgeon present for high-risk patients is an important safety measure in emergency surgery, but 24-h consultant cover is not efficient. We aimed to develop a user-friendly toolbox (risk identification, outcome prediction and patient stratification) to support when to involve a senior surgeon.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We included 11,901 general surgery patients (10.0% emergencies) in a multicenter prospective cohort in China (2015-2016). Patient information and surgeons' seniority were compared between emergency and elective surgery with the same procedure codes. Risk indicators common in these two surgical timings and specific to emergency surgery were identified, and their clinical importance was evaluated by a working group of 48 experienced surgeons. Predictive models for mortality and morbidity were built using logistic regression models. Stratification rules were created to balance patients' risk and surgeons' caseload with an Acute Call Team (ACT) model.

RESULTS

Emergency patients had significantly higher risks of mortality (3.6% vs 0.6%) and morbidity (7.8% vs 4.3%) than elective patients, but disproportionally fewer senior surgeons (59.9% vs 91.4%) were present. Using three risk indicators (American Society of Anesthesiologists score, age, blood urea nitrogen), C-statistic (95% CI) for prediction of emergency mortality was high [0.90 (0.84-0.96)]. It was less complex but equally accurate as two existing and validated models (0.86 [0.79-0.93] and 0.86 [0.77-0.95]). Using five indicators, C-statistic (95% CI) was moderate for prediction of overall morbidity [0.77 (0.72-0.83)], but high for severe morbidity [0.92 (0.88-0.97)]. Based on stratification rules of the ACT model, patient mortality and morbidity were 0.5% and 5.3% in the low-risk stratum (composing 64.6% of emergency caseload), and 15.9% and 29.0% in the very high-risk stratum (6.9% of caseload).

CONCLUSION

These findings show the practical feasibility of using a risk assessment tool to direct senior surgeons' involvement in emergency general surgery.

Can the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) predict outcomes in emergency general surgery patients with missing data elements? A nationwide analysis

BACKGROUND

The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) is an accurate mortality risk calculator for emergency general surgery (EGS). We sought to assess whether ESS can accurately predict 30-day morbidity, mortality, and requirement for postoperative Intensive Care Unit (ICU) care in patients with missing data variables.

METHODS

All EGS patients with one or more missing ESS variables in the 2007-2015 ACS-NSQIP database were included. ESS was calculated assuming that a missing variable is normal (i.e. no additional ESS points). The correlation between ESS and morbidity, mortality, and postoperative ICU level of care was assessed using the c-statistics methodology.

RESULTS

Out of a total of 4,456,809 patients, 359,849 were EGS, and of those 256,278 (71.2%) patients had at least one ESS variable missing. ESS correlated extremely well with mortality (c-statistic = 0.94) and postoperative requirement of ICU care (c-statistic = 0.91) and well with morbidity (c-statistic = 0.77).

CONCLUSION

ESS performs well in predicting outcomes in EGS patients even when one or more data elements are missing and remains a useful bedside tool for counseling EGS patients and for benchmarking the quality of EGS care.

Surgical site infection in hip arthroplasty in a 10-year follow-up prospective study: Risk and factors associated

BACKGROUND

The increased demand for hip arthroplasty means a growing number of postsurgical complications. This study aims to assess the risk of surgical site infection (SSI) in a teaching hospital; develop regional, national and international external comparisons; and evaluate SSI-related risk factors, particularly according to the timing of surgery (urgent/unplanned or elective).

METHODS

Prospective cohort study from January 2008 to December 2018. Patients were followed up to 90 days after surgery. Primary endpoint was SSI incidence according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Multivariate analysis was conducted to find independently associated SSI risk factors. The association between risk factors and SSI incidence was assessed by reference to odds ratio (OR). Analyses were also performed among urgent/unplanned and elective patients to identify whether SSI risk factors differed between groups.

RESULTS

The study population (n = 1,808) has an overall SSI rate of 3.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.4-3.9). Timing of surgery caused an effect modification, so surgery duration> 75th percentile (OR: 3.8; 95% CI: 1.5-9.8) and inadequate preparation (OR: 3.3; 95% CI: 1.1-10.0) were independent risk factors in the urgent/unplanned group; National Healthcare Safety Network risk index≥ 2 (OR: 6.3; 95% CI: 0.1-19.2) and transfusion (OR: 3.6; 95% CI: 1.1-11.9) in the elective group.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital infection surveillance systems allow identifying risk factors susceptible to change. Characterization of factors that caused an effect modification is key to identify areas of quality improvement, including reducing operating times, preventing perioperative blood transfusion, or improving patient preparation before surgery.

The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) accurately predicts outcomes in elderly patients undergoing emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

The performance of the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS), a validated risk calculator, in the elderly emergency general surgery (EGS) patient remains unclear. We hypothesized that ESS accurately predicts outcomes in elderly EGS patients, including octogenarians and nonagenarians.

METHODS

Using the 2007-2017 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) database, we included all EGS patients ≥65 years old. The correlation between ESS, mortality and morbidity was assessed in the 3 patient cohorts (>65, octogenarians and nonagenarians), using the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 124,335 patients were included, of which 34,215 (28%) were octogenarians and 7239 (6%) were nonagenarians. In patients ≥65 years, ESS accurately predicted mortality (AUC 0.81). For octogenarians and nonagenarians, ESS predicted mortality moderately well (AUC 0.77 and 0.69, respectively.

CONCLUSION

ESS accurately predicts mortality and morbidity in the elderly EGS patient, but its accuracy in predicting morbidity decreases for nonagenarians.

General Surgery Residency and Emergency General Surgery Service Reduces Readmission Rates and Length of Stay in Nonoperative Small Bowel Obstruction

BACKGROUND

Nonoperative management of adhesive small bowel obstruction (ASBO) results in resolution for the majority of patients. Previous studies have demonstrated that outcomes for patients with ASBO are improved when patients are admitted to a surgical service, but the effect of general surgery resident coverage is unclear. This study measures quality outcomes for patients with ASBO after the establishment of a new general surgery residency program.

METHODS

An institutional review board-approved retrospective chart review of admissions for ASBO was conducted following the implementation of a protocol for ASBO nested within a newly developed resident-run emergency general surgery (EGS) service. Patients successfully treated without operative intervention were analyzed.

RESULTS

During the study period, 612 patients were admitted for ASBO. After initiation of the residency, 74% of ASBO were admitted to a surgical service compared with 35% prior to residency (P < .01). Length of stay was reduced by 0.77 days (P = .016), average direct total cost per patient was reduced by 24% (P = .002), and 30-day readmissions were reduced by 35.7% (P = .046). There was no significant difference in mortality (1.4% vs 1.0%).

DISCUSSION

Admission to a resident-run surgical service was associated with statistically significant improvement in outcomes for patients with ASBO. These data corroborate prior studies demonstrating the positive impact of residency programs on patient outcomes and provide additional evidence that general surgery residency programs improve outcomes for patients with surgical disease.

Psoas Attenuation and Mortality of Elderly Patients Undergoing Nontraumatic Emergency Laparotomy

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparotomy (EL) is an increasingly common procedure in the elderly. Factors associated with mortality in the subpopulation of frail patients have not been thoroughly investigated. Sarcopenia has been investigated as a surrogate for frailty and poor prognosis. Our primary aim was to evaluate the association between easily measured sarcopenia parameters and 30-day postoperative mortality in elderly patients undergoing EL. Length of stay (LOS) and admission to an intensive care unit were secondary end points.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study, over a 5-year period, of patients aged 65 y and older who underwent EL at a tertiary university hospital. Sarcopenia was evaluated on admission computed tomography scan by two methods, first by psoas muscle attenuation and second by the product of perpendicular cross-sectional diameters (PCSDs). The lowest quartile of PCSDs and attenuation were defined as sarcopenic and compared with the rest of the cohort. Attenuation was stratified for the use of contrast enhancement. Multivariant logistic regression was performed to determine independent risk factors.

RESULTS

During the study period, 403 patients, older than 65 y, underwent EL. Of these, 283 fit the inclusion criteria and 65 (23%) patients died within 30 d of surgery. On bivariate analysis, psoas muscle attenuation, but not PCSDs, was found to be associated with 30-day mortality (OR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.34-4.38, P = 0.003) and longer LOS (35.7 d versus 22.2 d, Δd 13.5, 95% CI = 6.4-20.7, P < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, psoas muscle attenuation, but not PCSDs, was an independent risk factor for 30-day postoperative mortality (OR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.16-4.76, P = 0.017) and longer LOS (Δd = 14.4, 95% CI = 7.7-21.0, P < 0.001). Neither of the sarcopenia parameters was associated with increased admission to an intensive care unit.

DISCUSSION

Psoas muscle attenuation is an independent risk factor for 30-day postoperative mortality and LOS after EL in the elderly population. This measurement can inform clinicians about the operative risk and hospital resource utilization.

Is the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator Accurate in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Emergency Setting? An Italian Single-center Preliminary Study

Background

The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator (SRC) is an open-access online tool that estimates the chance for adverse postoperative outcomes. The risk is estimated based on 21 patient-related variables and customized for specific surgical procedures. The purpose of this monocentric retrospective study is to validate its predictive value in an Italian emergency setting.

Methods

From January to December 2018, 317 patients underwent surgical procedures for acute cholecystitis (n = 103), appendicitis (n = 83), gastrointestinal perforation (n = 45), and intestinal obstruction (n = 86). Patients’ personal risk was obtained and divided by the average risk to calculate a personal risk ratio (RR). Areas under the ROC curves (AUC) and Brier score were measured to assess both the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model.

Results

The AUC was 0.772 (95%CI 0.722–0.817, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.161) for serious complications, 0.887 (95%CI 0.847–0.919, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.072) for death, and 0.887 (95%CI 0.847–0.919, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.106) for discharge to nursing or rehab facility. Pneumonia, cardiac complications, and surgical site infection presented an AUC of 0.794 (95%CI 0.746–0.838, p < 0.001; Brier 0.103), 0.836 (95%CI 0.790–0.875, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.081), and 0.729 (95%CI 0.676–0.777, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.131), respectively. A RR > 1.24, RR > 1.52, and RR > 2.63 predicted the onset of serious complications (sensitivity = 60.47%, specificity = 64.07%; NPV = 81%), death (sensitivity = 82.76%, specificity = 62.85%; NPV = 97%), and discharge to nursing or rehab facility (sensitivity = 80.00%, specificity = 69.12%; NPV = 95%), respectively.

Conclusions

The calculator appears to be accurate in predicting adverse postoperative outcomes in our emergency setting. A RR cutoff provides a much more practical method to forecast the onset of a specific type of complication in a single patient.

Prospective validation of the Emergency Surgery Score in emergency general surgery: An Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma multicenter study

BACKGROUND

The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) was recently developed and retrospectively validated as an accurate mortality risk calculator for emergency general surgery. We sought to prospectively validate ESS, specifically in the high-risk nontrauma emergency laparotomy (EL) patient.

METHODS

This is an Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma multicenter prospective observational study. Between April 2018 and June 2019, 19 centers enrolled all adults (aged >18 years) undergoing EL. Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables were prospectively and systematically collected. Emergency Surgery Score was calculated for each patient and validated using c-statistic methodology by correlating it with three postoperative outcomes: (1) 30-day mortality, (2) 30-day complications (e.g., respiratory/renal failure, infection), and (3) postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission.

RESULTS

A total of 1,649 patients were included. The mean age was 60.5 years, 50.3% were female, and 71.4% were white. The mean ESS was 6, and the most common indication for EL was hollow viscus perforation. The 30-day mortality and complication rates were 14.8% and 53.3%; 57.0% of patients required ICU admission. Emergency Surgery Score gradually and accurately predicted 30-day mortality; 3.5%, 50.0%, and 85.7% of patients with ESS of 3, 12, and 17 died after surgery, respectively, with a c-statistic of 0.84. Similarly, ESS gradually and accurately predicted complications; 21.0%, 57.1%, and 88.9% of patients with ESS of 1, 6, and 13 developed postoperative complications, with a c-statistic of 0.74. Emergency Surgery Score also accurately predicted which patients required intensive care unit admission (c-statistic, 0.80).

CONCLUSION

This is the first prospective multicenter study to validate ESS as an accurate predictor of outcome in the EL patient. Emergency Surgery Score can prove useful for (1) perioperative patient and family counseling, (2) triaging patients to the intensive care unit, and (3) benchmarking the quality of emergency general surgery care.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic study, level III.

No news is good news? Three-year postdischarge mortality of octogenarian and nonagenarian patients following emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

Outcome data on the very elderly patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) are sparse. We sought to examine short- and long-term mortality in the 80 plus years population following EGS.

METHODS

Using our institutional 2008-2018 EGS Database, all the 80 plus years patients undergoing EGS were identified. The data were linked to the Social Security Death Index to determine cumulative mortality rates up to 3 years after discharge. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine predictors of in-hospital and 1-year cumulative mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 385 patients were included with a mean age of 84 years; 54% were female. The two most common comorbidities were hypertension (76.1%) and cardiovascular disease (40.5%). The most common procedures performed were colectomy (20.0%), small bowel resection (18.2%), and exploratory laparotomy for other procedures (15.3%; e.g., internal hernia, perforated peptic ulcer). The overall in-hospital mortality was 18.7%. Cumulative mortality rates at 1, 2, and 3 years after discharge were 34.3%, 40.5%, and 43.4%, respectively. The EGS procedure associated with the highest 1-year mortality was colectomy (49.4%). Although hypertension, renal failure, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, and elevated liver enzymes predicted in-hospital mortality, the only independent predictors of cumulative 1-year mortality were hypoalbuminemia (odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-4.27; p = 0.025) and elevated serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGOT) level (odds ratio, 2.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-4.70; p = 0.029) at initial presentation. Patients with both factors had a cumulative 1-year mortality rate of 75.0%.

CONCLUSION

More than half of the very elderly patients undergoing major EGS were still alive at 3 years postdischarge. The combination of hypoalbuminemia and elevated liver enzymes predicted the highest 1-year mortality. Such information can prove useful for patient and family counseling preoperatively.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic, Level III.

Evaluation of the Performance of ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator in Emergency General Surgery Patients

The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator is designed to estimate the chance of an unfavorable outcome after surgery. Our goal was to evaluate the accuracy of the calculator in our emergency general surgery population. Surgical outcomes were compared to predicted risk. The risk was calculated with surgeon adjustment scores (SASs) of 1 (no adjustment), 2 (risk somewhat higher), and 3 (risk significantly higher than estimate). Two hundred and twenty-seven patients met the inclusion criteria. An SAS of 1 or 2 accurately predicted risk of mortality (5.7% and 8.5% predicted versus 7.9% actual), whereas a risk adjustment of 3 indicated significant overestimation of mortality rate (14.8% predicted). There was good overall prediction performance for most variables with no clear preference for SAS 1, 2, or 3. Poor correlation was seen with SSI, urinary tract infection, and length of stay variables. The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator yields valid predictions in the emergency general surgery population, and the data support its use to inform conversations about outcome expectations.

Life after 90: Predictors of mortality and performance of the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator in 4,724 nonagenarian patients undergoing emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

The decision to emergently operate on nonagenarian patients (NONAs) can be complex due to the uncertainty about outcomes and goals of care at this advanced age. We sought to study: (1) the outcomes and predictors of mortality for NONAs undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) and (2) the accuracy of ACS-NSQIP mortality risk calculator in this special population.

METHODS

Using the 2007 to 2015 ACS-NSQIP database, we included all patients older than 90 years of age who underwent an emergent operation with a Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) code for "digestive system." Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality. NONAs' mortality rates for different combinations of risk factors were also studied and compared to the ACS-NSQIP calculator-predicted mortality rates.

RESULTS

Out of a total of 4,456,809 patients, 4,724 NONAs were included. The overall 30-day patient mortality and morbidity rates were 21% and 45%, respectively. In multivariable analyses, several independent predictors of 30-day mortality were identified, including recent history of weight loss, history of steroid use, smoking, functional dependence, hypoalbuminemia and sepsis or septic shock. The mortality among NONAs with a history of steroid use and a recent history of weight loss was 100%. Similarly, the mortality of NONAs with recent history of weight loss who presented with preoperative septic shock was 93%. The ACS-NSQIP calculator significantly and consistently underestimated the risk of mortality in all NONAs undergoing EGS.

CONCLUSION

Most NONAs undergoing EGS survive the hospital stay and the first 30 postoperative days, even in the presence of significant preexisting comorbidities. However, the combination of recent weight loss with either steroid use or septic shock nearly ensures mortality and should be used in the discussions with patients and families before a decision to operate is made. The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator should be used with caution in these high-risk patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic study, level III.

What's New in the Management of Incarcerated Hernia

Management of incarcerated hernias is a common issue facing general surgeons across the USA. When hernias are not able to be reduced, surgeons must make decisions in a short time frame with limited options for patient optimization. In this article, we review assessment and management options for incarcerated ventral and inguinal hernias.

Surgical Risk Is Not Linear: Derivation and Validation of a Novel, User-friendly, and Machine-learning-based Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER) Calculator

INTRODUCTION

Most risk assessment tools assume that the impact of risk factors is linear and cumulative. Using novel machine-learning techniques, we sought to design an interactive, nonlinear risk calculator for Emergency Surgery (ES).

METHODS

All ES patients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) 2007 to 2013 database were included (derivation cohort). Optimal Classification Trees (OCT) were leveraged to train machine-learning algorithms to predict postoperative mortality, morbidity, and 18 specific complications (eg, sepsis, surgical site infection). Unlike classic heuristics (eg, logistic regression), OCT is adaptive and reboots itself with each variable, thus accounting for nonlinear interactions among variables. An application [Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER)] was then designed as the algorithms' interactive and user-friendly interface. POTTER performance was measured (c-statistic) using the 2014 ACS-NSQIP database (validation cohort) and compared with the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), Emergency Surgery Score (ESS), and ACS-NSQIP calculators' performance.

RESULTS

Based on 382,960 ES patients, comprehensive decision-making algorithms were derived, and POTTER was created where the provider's answer to a question interactively dictates the subsequent question. For any specific patient, the number of questions needed to predict mortality ranged from 4 to 11. The mortality c-statistic was 0.9162, higher than ASA (0.8743), ESS (0.8910), and ACS (0.8975). The morbidity c-statistics was similarly the highest (0.8414).

CONCLUSION

POTTER is a highly accurate and user-friendly ES risk calculator with the potential to continuously improve accuracy with ongoing machine-learning. POTTER might prove useful as a tool for bedside preoperative counseling of ES patients and families.

Emergency glioma resection but not hours of operation predicts perioperative complications: A single center study

OBJECTIVE

Physical and mental status of neurosurgeons may vary with emergency status and hours of operation, which may impact the outcome of patients undergoing surgery. This study aims to clarify the influence of these parameters on outcome after surgery in glioma patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 477 nonemergency surgery (NES) and 30 emergency surgery (ES) were enrolled in this study. Using propensity score matching (PSM) analysis, 97 pairs of procedures from NES group were generated and then classified as group M (morning procedures, 8:00 a.m-1:00 p.m) or group A (afternoon or night procedures, 1:00 p.m-8:00 p.m). 30 emergency procedures were classified into group ESa (daytime emergency surgery, 8:00 a.m-6:00 p.m) and group ESb (nighttime surgery procedures, 6:00 p.m-8:00 a.m the next day). Differences in intraoperative risk factors and postoperative complications were analyzed.

RESULTS

Postoperative complications, including death within 30 days (p = 0.004), neurological function deficit (p = 0.012), systemic infection (p < 0.001) were significant higher in emergency procedures. Intraoperative risk factors including blood loss (p < 0.001), blood transfusion (p = 0.036) were also higher in emergency procedures than nonemergency procedures, although both procedures had comparable time duration (p = 0.337). By PSM analysis, patients in group M and group A were well matched and no significant difference of intraoperative risk factors and postoperative complications (all p > 0.05) were found. Furthermore, incidence of intraoperative risk factors and postoperative complications were similar in both groups ESa and ESb (all p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Emergency glioma resection is a very important risk factors of perioperative mortality and morbidity for patients. However, hours of operation did not necessarily predict postoperative mortality or morbidity, either in emergency or nonemergency glioma resection.

Emergency Surgery Score Accurately Predicts the Risk of Post-Operative Infection in Emergency General Surgery

BACKGROUND

The Emergency Surgery Score (ESS) was validated recently as an accurate and user-friendly post-operative mortality risk calculator specific for Emergency General Surgery (EGS). ESS is calculated by adding one to three integer points for each of 22 pre-operative variables (demographics, co-morbidities, and pre-operative laboratory values); increasing scores accurately and gradually predict higher mortality rates. We sought to evaluate whether ESS can predict the occurrence of post-operative infectious complications in EGS patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database from 2007-2015, all EGS patients were identified by using the "emergent" ACS-NSQIP variable and a concomitant surgery Current Procedural Terminology code for "digestive system." Patients with any missing ESS variables or those who died within 72 hours from the surgical procedure were excluded. A composite variable, post-operative infection, was created and defined as the post-operative occurrence of one or more of the following: superficial, deep incisional or organ/space surgical site infection, surgical site disruption, pneumonia, sepsis, septic shock, or urinary tract infection. ESS was calculated for all included patients, and the correlation between ESS and post-operative infection was examined using c-statistics.

RESULTS

Of a total of 4,456,809 patients, 90,412 patients were included. The mean age of the population was 56 years, 51% were female, and 70% were white; 22% developed one or more post-operative infections, most commonly sepsis/septic shock (12.2%), surgical site infection (9%), and pneumonia (5.7%). The ESS gradually and consistently predicted infectious complications; post-operative infections developed in 7%, 24%, and 49% of patients with an ESS of 1, 5, and 10, respectively. The c-statistics for overall post-operative infection, post-operative sepsis/septic shock, and pneumonia were 0.73, 0.75, and 0.80, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The ESS accurately predicts the occurrence of post-operative infectious complications in EGS patients and could be used for pre-operative clinical decision-making as well as quality benchmarking of infection rates in EGS.

Associations of Fluid Amount, Type, and Balance and Acute Kidney Injury in Patients Undergoing Major Surgery

Fluid administration has been reported to be associated with an increased risk of acute kidney injury (AKI). We assessed whether, after correction for fluid balance, amount and chloride content of fluids administered have an independent association with AKI. We performed an observational study in patients after major surgery assessing the independent association of AKI with volume, chloride content and fluid balance, after adjustment for Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, age, elective versus emergency surgery, and duration of surgery. We studied 542 consecutive patients undergoing major surgery. Of these, 476 patients had renal function tested as part of routine clinical care and 53 patients (11.1%) developed postoperative AKI. After adjustments, a 100 ml greater mean daily fluid balance was artificially associated with a 5% decrease in the instantaneous hazard of AKI: adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) 0.951, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.935 to 0.967, P <0.001. However, after adjustment for the proportion of chloride-restrictive fluids, mean daily fluid amounts and balances, POSSUM morbidity, age, duration and emergency status of surgery, and the confounding effect of fluid balance, every 5% increase in the proportion of chloride-liberal fluid administered was associated with an 8% increase in the instantaneous hazard of AKI (aHR 1.079, 95% CI 1.032 to 1.128, P=0.001), and a 100 ml increase in mean daily fluid amount given was associated with a 6% increase in the instantaneous hazard of AKI (aHR 1.061, 95% CI 1.047 to 1.075, P <0.001). After adjusting for key risk factors and for the confounding effect of fluid balance, greater fluid administration and greater administration of chloride-rich fluid were associated with greater risk of AKI.

A calculator for mortality following emergency general surgery based on the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database

BACKGROUND

The complex nature of current morbidity and mortality predictor models do not lend themselves to clinical application at the bedside of patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS). Our aim was to develop a simplified risk calculator for prediction of early postoperative mortality after EGS.

METHODS

EGS cases other than appendectomy and cholecystectomy were identified within the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program database from 2005 to 2014. Seventy-five percent of the cases were selected at random for model development, whereas 25% of the cases were used for model testing. Stepwise logistic regression was performed for creation of a 30-day mortality risk calculator. Model accuracy and reproducibility was investigated using the concordance index (c statistic) and Pearson correlations.

RESULTS

A total of 79,835 patients met inclusion criteria. Overall, 30-day mortality was 12.6%. A simplified risk model formula was derived from five readily available preoperative variables as follows: 0.034*age + 0.8*nonindependent status + 0.88*sepsis + 1.1 (if bun ≥ 29) or 0.57 (if bun ≥18 and < 29) + 1.16 (if albumin < 2.7), or 0.61 (if albumin ≥ 2.7 and < 3.4). The risk of 30-day mortality was stratified into deciles. The risk of 30-day mortality ranged from 2% for patients in the lowest risk level to 31% for patients in the highest risk level. The c statistic was 0.83 in both the derivation and testing samples.

CONCLUSION

Five readily available preoperative variables can be used to predict the 30-day mortality risk for patients undergoing EGS. Further studies are needed to validate this risk calculator and to determine its bedside applicability.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic/epidemiological study, level III.