Costs and benefits of realism and optimism

Overlapping yet dissociable contributions of superiority illusion features to Ponzo illusion strength and metacognitive performance

Humans are typically inept at evaluating their abilities and predispositions. People dismiss such a lack of metacognitive insight into their capacities while even enhancing (albeit illusorily) self-evaluation such that they should have more desirable traits than an average peer. This superiority illusion helps maintain a healthy mental state. However, the scope and range of its influence on broader human behavior, especially perceptual tasks, remain elusive. As belief shapes the way people perceive and recognize, the illusory self-superiority belief potentially regulates our perceptual and metacognitive performance. In this study, we used hierarchical Bayesian estimation and machine learning of signal detection theoretic measures to understand how the superiority illusion influences visual perception and metacognition for the Ponzo illusion. Our results demonstrated that the superiority illusion correlated with the Ponzo illusion magnitude and metacognitive performance. Next, we combined principal component analysis and cross-validated regularized regression (relaxed elastic net) to identify which superiority components contributed to the correlations. We revealed that the "extraversion" superiority dimension tapped into the Ponzo illusion magnitude and metacognitive ability. In contrast, the "honesty-humility" and "neuroticism" dimensions only predicted Ponzo illusion magnitude and metacognitive ability, respectively. These results suggest common and distinct influences of superiority features on perceptual sensitivity and metacognition. Our findings contribute to the accumulating body of evidence indicating that the leverage of superiority illusion is far-reaching, even to visual perception.

Confidence, accuracy judgments and feedback in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder: a time series network analysis

BACKGROUND

Inaccurate self-assessment of performance is common among people with serious mental illness, and it is associated with poor functional outcomes independent from ability. However, the temporal interdependencies between judgments of performance, confidence in accuracy, and feedback about performance are not well understood.

METHODS

We evaluated two tasks: the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) and the Penn Emotion recognition task (ER40). These tasks were modified to include item-by-item confidence and accuracy judgments, along with feedback on accuracy. We evaluated these tasks as time series and applied network modeling to understand the temporal relationships between momentary confidence, accuracy judgments, and feedback. The sample constituted participants with schizophrenia (SZ; N = 144), bipolar disorder (BD; N = 140), and healthy controls (HC; N = 39).

RESULTS

Network models for both WCST and ER40 revealed denser and lagged connections between confidence and accuracy judgments in SZ and, to a lesser extent in BD, that were not evidenced in HC. However, associations between feedback regarding accuracy with subsequent accuracy judgments and confidence were weaker in SZ and BD. In each of these comparisons, the BD group was intermediate between HC and SZ. In analyses of the WCST, wherein incorporating feedback is crucial for success, higher confidence predicted worse subsequent performance in SZ but not in HC or BD.

CONCLUSIONS

While network models are exploratory, the results suggest some potential mechanisms by which challenges in self-assessment may impede performance, perhaps through hyperfocus on self-generated judgments at the expense of incorporation of feedback.

Optimists and Realists: A Latent Class Analysis of Students Graduating from High School during COVID-19 and Impacts on Affect and Well-Being

The Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has had profound effects on physical and mental health worldwide. Students transitioning out of high school were uniquely impacted at the onset of the pandemic, having missed the opportunity to properly mark the end of their final year in the K-12 school system. The adverse effects of this loss on this population are still unknown. The purpose of the current study was to examine stress, wellbeing, and affect in a sample of 168 students (N = 168; Mage = 17.0, SD = 0.46; 60% female; 40% male) who were completing their final year of high school during the early stages of the pandemic when emergency stay-at-home orders were in place. Participants completed an online survey assessing the impact of COVID-19 on their life satisfaction (pre-COVID19, during COVID-19, and anticipated five years from now), stress, positive affect, and negative affect. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to create classes of participants based on their responses to the pandemic. A two-subgroup solution provided the best model for the life satisfaction outcome variable. Subgroup 1, optimists, comprised 24% (N = 40) of the sample and reported high life satisfaction ratings one year prior to COVID-19 and a slight decrease in life satisfaction during COVID-19, and they anticipated an increase in life satisfaction 5 years from now. This group was characterized by low stress, low negative affect, and high positive affect during the pandemic. Subgroup 2, realists, comprised 76% of the population (N = 128) and experienced similarly high retrospective ratings of pre-COVID life satisfaction but a larger decrease in life satisfaction during the pandemic and a smaller increase in five years. The realist group was characterized by low positive affect, high stress, and high negative affect during the pandemic. The findings suggest that during the pandemic, certain subsamples of adolescents had greater difficulty in managing this transitional period and experienced changes in mood and well-being (i.e., affect, stress) as compared to other adolescents (i.e., optimists). Future research should investigate the characteristics and coping mechanisms that are instrumental for increasing life satisfaction and positive affect while lowering stress in this population.

The Interaction Between Optimism and Pessimism Predicted the Perceived Risk of Infection During the Covid-19 Pandemic: An Exploratory Cross-Sectional Study

In this study, we examined the relationship between optimism and pessimism associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, mental health, and perceived risk of infection. In particular, we tested the hypothesis that, when optimism and pessimism were high during the pandemic period, a worse mental health and a higher perception of risk would be reported. To this end, a convenience sample of 374 Italian adults was enrolled. Measures included perceived stress, optimism, and pessimism associated with the development of the pandemic situation, as well as the perceived risk of Covid-19 infection. The results showed that optimism and pessimism were associated with perceived stress and Covid-19 risk perception while controlling for demographic variables. Optimism and stress were negatively related, while pessimism was positively related to both stress and risk perception. Furthermore, the interaction between optimism and optimism was significant, with a higher perception of risk in the presence of both high optimism and pessimism, and a lower perception of risk with high optimism and low pessimism. These results support the hypothesis that optimism and pessimism interacted in predicting Covid-19 risk perception and show that they should be measured as partially correlated but independent constructs in future investigations.

Affective Attitudes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Dynamics of Negative Emotions and a Sense of Threat in Poles in the First Wave of the Pandemic

For millions of people, the COVID-19 pandemic situation and its accompanying restrictions have been a source of threat and confrontation with negative emotions. The pandemic's universal and long-term character, as well as the ensuing drastic limitation of control over one's life, have made it necessary to work out adaptive strategies that would reduce negative experiences and eventually lead to the restoration of well-being. The aim of this research was to identify strategies that people use in response to a long-term threat that restore affective balance and a subjective sense of security. We registered selected manifestations of affective reactions to the pandemic situation. The researchers focused on the dynamics of changes in the areas of (1) experienced negative emotions (asked in an indirect way) and (2) a subjective feeling of threat regarding the pandemic (in three different contexts: Poland, Europe, and worldwide) during the first phase of the pandemic in Poland. It was expected that both the negative emotions and the sense of threat would decrease with time. In addition, it was anticipated that the physical distance would modify the assessment of the situation as threatening depending on the geographical proximity: in Poland, Europe, and worldwide. We used the mixed quasi-experimental design in the series of four studies conducted by Internet in March, May, June, and July 2020. The intensity of negative emotions and the sense of threat caused by the pandemic situation in Poland, Europe, and worldwide were measured. Despite the objective number of confirmed COVID-19 cases during each of the stages of the study, both the intensity of emotions attributed by participants as well as the feeling of threat were found to have decreased. In addition, surprisingly, a reversed effect of the distance was revealed: namely, a sense of threat experienced towards distant locations (Europe and the world) was found to be more acute when compared with the threat experienced in Poland. The obtained results are interpreted as a manifestation of adaptive perception of the threat that lies beyond one's control, which takes the form of unconscious, biased distortions: unrealistic optimism. The decrease in the intensity of negative emotions explains unrealistic absolute optimism, while the perception of the situation in Poland as less threatening than in Europe and around the world is predicted by unrealistic comparative optimism.

Evaluating clinical and demographic influences on health perception: A translation of the SF-12 for use with NHANES

Improving public health depends on an intricate understanding of the factors that influence how individuals perceive and self-report their personal health. Self-perceived health is an independent predictor of future health-related outcomes, but capturing self-perception of health is complex due to the intricate relationship between clinical and perceived health. A commonly used measure of self-perceived health is the Short Form 12 (SF-12), developed in the 1990s. In this study, we aim to evaluate clinical and demographic influences on self-perceived health among American adults using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). While NHANES captures information on a number of domains of health, including clinical assessments, it does not include SF-12 items necessary to measure self-perceived health. Therefore, to assess self-perceived health for our study, we constructed and validated a novel SF-12-equivalent measure for use with NHANES using analogous items from the 2015–2016 NHANES interview questionnaires. The developed measure reflects established knowledge of population health patterns and closely parallels the behavior of the original SF-12. An analysis of the clinical and demographic influences on this novel measure of health perception revealed that both clinical and demographic factors, such as depression status and race, influence how healthy individuals perceive themselves to be. Importantly, our analysis indicated that among American adults, while controlling for clinical and demographic covariates, an increase in low-density lipoprotein (i.e., “bad”) cholesterol level was associated with an improvement in self-perceived health. This study contributes significantly in two domains: it provides a novel measure of self-perceived health compatible for use with the widely used NHANES data (as well as details on how the process was developed), and it identifies a critical area in need of improved clinical education regarding the apparent confusion around cholesterol health.

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Both clinical and demographic factors significantly influence health perception.

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Increased “bad” cholesterol paradoxically associated with better perceived health.

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Novel perceived health measure is reproducible with publicly available survey data.

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Understanding health perception patterns can inform health education and promotion.

Components of Unrealistic Optimism of College Students: The Case of the COVID-19 Pandemic

College students are among the most strongly affected populations by the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic because of uncertainty regarding academic success, future careers, and social life during their study period. Their mental health and behavior may dramatically be impacted. The study examined an unrealistic optimism of Israeli college students in assessing the health, security, and economic risks during the pandemic, and the contributions of these perceived risks to the prediction of psychological coping responses, such as well-being, and coping suppressing response of anxiety, expressed during this pandemic. Using social networks, a questionnaire was disseminated to students during the third lockdown that was implemented in Israel because of the pandemic. Depressive and anxiety symptoms, perceived threats, resilience, well-being, hope, and morale were measured using a structured quantitative questionnaire. First, we hypothesized that the three perceived risks would be inversely rated, so perceived health risk would be rated lowest, and perceived economic risk would be rated highest. The second and third hypotheses claimed that psychological coping responses articulated along this pandemic would be predicted by all these perceived risks, as well as the observance of pandemic precaution rules. The fourth hypothesis suggested that the three investigated perceived risks will positively and significantly correlate with each other. The results generally supported the hypotheses and indicated that the unrealistic optimism process was employed quite consistently by the participating students.

Computational methods for integrative evaluation of confidence, accuracy, and reaction time in facial affect recognition in schizophrenia

People with schizophrenia (SZ) process emotions less accurately than do healthy comparators (HC), and emotion recognition have expanded beyond accuracy to performance variables like reaction time (RT) and confidence. These domains are typically evaluated independently, but complex inter-relationships can be evaluated through machine learning at an item-by-item level. Using a mix of ranking and machine learning tools, we investigated item-by-item discrimination of facial affect with two emotion recognition tests (BLERT and ER-40) between SZ and HC. The best performing multi-domain model for ER40 had a large effect size in differentiating SZ and HC (d = 1.24) compared to a standard comparison of accuracy alone (d = 0.48); smaller increments in effect sizes were evident for the BLERT (d = 0.87 vs. d = 0.58). Almost half of the selected items were confidence ratings. Within SZ, machine learning models with ER40 (generally accuracy and reaction time) items predicted severity of depression and overconfidence in social cognitive ability, but not psychotic symptoms. Pending independent replication, the results support machine learning, and the inclusion of confidence ratings, in characterizing the social cognitive deficits in SZ. This moderate-sized study (n = 372) included subjects with schizophrenia (SZ, n = 218) and healthy controls (HC, n = 154).

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This paper explores the value of integrative evaluation of confidence, accuracy, and reaction time by way of machine learning in understanding the unique aspects of facial affect recognition in schizophrenia.

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Machine learning models better separated schizophrenia from healthy comparators that standard statistical comparison, confidence ratings contributed to this separation in a disproportionate manner.

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Machine learning approaches provide a novel way to analyze item-by-item associations with social cognition measures, or potentially other tests, where multiple overlapping dimensions exist.

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Aberrant confidence ratings interact with performance variables in complex ways to contribute to social cognitive deficits in schizophrenia.

[Coronavirus: Predictive brain and terror management]

Emerging infectious diseases like Covid-19 cause a major threat to global health. When confronted with new pathogens, individuals generate several beliefs about the epidemic phenomenon. Many studies have shown that individual protective behaviors largely depend on these beliefs. Due to the absence of treatment and vaccine against these emerging pathogens, the relation between these beliefs and these behaviors represents a crucial issue for public health policies. In the premises of the Covid-19 pandemic, several preliminary studies have highlighted a delay in the perception of risk by individuals, which potentially holds back the implementing of the necessary precautionary measures: people underestimated the risks associated with the virus, and therefore also the importance of complying with sanitary guidelines. During the peak of the pandemic, the salience of the threat and of the risk of mortality could then have transformed the way people generate their beliefs. This potentially leads to upheavals in the way they understand the world. Here, we propose to explore the evolution of beliefs and behaviors during the Covid-19 crisis, using the theory of predictive coding and the theory of terror management, two influential frameworks in cognitive science and in social psychology.

A critical review and development of a conceptual model of exclusion from social relations for older people

Social exclusion is complex and dynamic, and it leads to the non-realization of social, economic, political or cultural rights or participation within a society. This critical review takes stock of the literature on exclusion of social relations. Social relations are defined as comprising social resources, social connections and social networks. An evidence review group undertook a critical review which integrates, interprets and synthesizes information across studies to develop a conceptual model of exclusion from social relations. The resulting model is a subjective interpretation of the literature and is intended to be the starting point for further evaluations. The conceptual model identifies individual risks for exclusion from social relations (personal attributes, biological and neurological risk, retirement, socio-economic status, exclusion from material resources and migration). It incorporates the evaluation of social relations, and the influence of psychosocial resources and socio-emotional processes, sociocultural, social-structural, environmental and policy contextual influences on exclusion from social relations. It includes distal outcomes of exclusion from social relations, that is, individual well-being, health and functioning, social opportunities and social cohesion. The dynamic relationships between elements of the model are also reported. We conclude that the model provides a subjective interpretation of the data and an excellent starting point for further phases of conceptual development and systematic evaluation(s). Future research needs to consider the use of sophisticated analytical tools and an interdisciplinary approach in order to understand the underlying biological and ecopsychosocial associations that contribute to individual and dynamic differences in the experience of exclusion from social relations.

Achieving the first of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets: understanding the influence of HIV risk perceptions, knowing one's partner's status and discussion of HIV/sexually transmitted infections with a sexual partner on uptake of HIV testing

This study assessed how HIV risk perceptions, knowledge of one's partner's status and discussion of HIV/sexually transmitted infections (STIs) with one's sexual partner influence the uptake of HIV testing. Data were obtained from 833 young adults, selected using stratified random sampling in a South African university in 2018. Adjusted and unadjusted logistic regression models were employed to examine determinants of HIV testing uptake. The majority of students (69.9%) had previously tested for HIV, but only 58.4% tested for HIV in the last year. Being highly concerned about contracting HIV/STIs was positively associated with having tested for HIV (adjusted OR [AOR]: 4.28; CI: 2.50 to 7.34) and getting an HIV test in the past year (AOR: 1.83; CI: 1.20 to 2.80). Knowing one's partner's status was associated with a higher probability of ever having been tested for HIV (AOR: 3.07; CI: 1.89 to 4.97) or having received an HIV test in the previous year (AOR: 2.66; CI: 1.77 to 3.99). Discussion of HIV/STIs was associated with higher odds of having ever been tested for HIV (AOR: 3.81; CI: 2.44 to 5.96) and recent HIV testing (AOR: 3.22; CI: 2.17 to 4.77). HIV testing was below the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS UNAIDS 90-90-90 target. Being concerned about contracting HIV, discussion of HIV/STIs with a sexual partner and knowing one's partner's HIV status were associated with the uptake of HIV testing.

Effectiveness of Leadership Decision-Making in Complex Systems

This paper traverses the domains of leadership and decision-making within various types of systems with different levels of complexity. The article presents some background about both leadership and decision-making, and then explores the concept of leadership decision-making and some of the factors involved. The paper then reviews complex systems and provides examples to differentiate complex systems from other systems. Finally, these strands are brought together with a consideration of leadership decision-making in complex systems and presentation of a framework to assist managers faced with decision-making in complexity, based on data collected in a survey. The aim and practical contribution of this paper is to improve the outcomes of leadership decision-making within complex systems, based upon the findings and on a decision aid model derived from them. The paper, therefore, should help people in real life and leaders within organizational settings to improve their decision-making effectiveness within the ever-increasing range of complex situations which are now widely encountered.

Is and Ought: Descriptive and Prescriptive Cognitions in Military-Related Moral Injury

Debate exists regarding the most appropriate way to address moral injuries that stem from involvement in war and other military conflicts. In recent years, some researchers have suggested that existing treatments for trauma may be inadequate to address moral injury and have thus proposed novel interventions to help mitigate these concerns. In response, advocates of more traditional approaches have argued that standard trauma interventions are generally sufficient for moral injury, and investment in new interventions may be premature. This conceptual article draws from research findings and current theories of moral injury to demonstrate that there is merit on both sides of this debate, and further clarifying the types of cognitions involved in moral injury can guide effective treatment planning. In particular, the most recent diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder is used to distinguish the objectively falsifiable descriptive cognitions often associated with trauma from the subjectively determined prescriptive cognitions that characterize moral injury. Scenarios from war zone deployments have been used to highlight the relevance of this distinction for moral injury, and a general treatment framework that shows how existing and novel interventions may complement one another is presented. Research suggestions for assessing descriptive and prescriptive cognitions in moral injury and empirically validating this treatment framework are discussed.

Is emotion regulation associated with cancer-related psychological symptoms?

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the cross-sectional and prospective relationships between subjective (cognitive reappraisal, expressive suppression and experiential avoidance) and objective (high-frequency heart rate variability [HF-HRV]) measures of emotion regulation (ER) and a set of psychological symptoms (anxiety, depression, fear of cancer recurrence [FCR], insomnia, fatigue, pain, and cognitive impairments) among women receiving radiation therapy for non-metastatic breast cancer.

DESIGN

Eighty-one participants completed a battery of self-report scales within 10 days before the start of radiotherapy (T1) and within 10 days after its end (T2; approximately 6 weeks after T1). HF-HRV at rest was measured at T1.

RESULTS

Canonical correlation analyses revealed that higher levels of experiential avoidance and expressive suppression were cross-sectionally associated with higher levels of all symptoms, except pain, at T1 and at T2 (both p's < 0.0001). Higher levels of suppression and reappraisal at T1 were marginally associated with reduced FCR and with increased depression and fatigue between T1 and T2 (p = 0.07). HF-HRV was not associated with symptoms cross-sectionally or prospectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although preliminary, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that maladaptive ER strategies, assessed subjectively, may cross-sectionally act as a transdiagnostic mechanism underlying several cancer-related psychological symptoms.

The Palliative Effects of System Justification on the Health and Happiness of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Individuals

Across three studies, we examine the correlates of subjective well-being and mental and physical health among members of a historically disadvantaged group, namely, lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) individuals. Results show those who minimize (vs. acknowledge) the extent to which their group is the target of discrimination report better well-being across myriad indicators (Studies 1-3). We also demonstrate that this effect is mediated by perceived system fairness (Study 1); holds above and beyond internalized homonegativity (Studies 1 and 3) and ingroup identification (Studies 2-3); and is true regardless of whether individuals reside in hostile or accepting environments (Study 2), and regardless of whether individuals had personally experienced discrimination (Study 3). For some indicators (namely, body mass index [BMI], social well-being, self-esteem, depression, and mental illness diagnosis), the relationship between minimization of discrimination and well-being was stronger among those who had frequent (vs. rare) discriminatory experiences.

A plea for minimally biased naturalistic philosophy

Naturalistic philosophers rely on literature search and review in a number of ways and for different purposes. Yet this article shows how processes of literature search and review are likely to be affected by widespread and systematic biases. A solution to this problem is offered here. Whilst the tradition of systematic reviews of literature from scientific disciplines has been neglected in philosophy, systematic reviews are important tools that minimize bias in literature search and review and allow for greater reproducibility and transparency. If naturalistic philosophers wish to reduce bias in their research, they should then supplement their traditional tools for literature search and review by including systematic methodologies.

The link between optimism bias and attention bias: A neurocognitive perspective

Both optimism bias and reward-related attention bias have crucial implications for well-being and mental health. Yet, the extent to which the two biases interact remains unclear because, to date, they have mostly been discussed in isolation. Examining interactions between the two biases can lead to new directions in neurocognitive research by revealing their underlying cognitive and neurophysiological mechanisms. In the present article, we suggest that optimism bias and reward-related attention bias mutually enforce each other and recruit a common underlying neural network. Key components of this network include specific activations in the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex with connections to the amygdala. We further postulate that biased memory processes influence the interplay of optimism and reward-related attention bias. Studying such causal relations between cognitive biases reveals important information not only about normal functioning and adaptive neural pathways in maintaining mental health, but also about the development and maintenance of psychological diseases, thereby contributing to the effectiveness of treatment.

To be or not to be positive: Development of a tool to assess the relationship of negative, positive, and realistic thinking with psychological distress in breast cancer

There is a widespread belief that positive thinking is a key strategy to cope with cancer. While dispositional optimism is associated with lower psychological distress, the literature supporting the efficacy of cognitive-behavioral therapy indirectly suggests that realistic thinking is also effective. This article describes the development of the Thoughts and Anticipations about Cancer questionnaire designed to directly compare the effect of realistic thinking versus positive thinking on adjustment to cancer. Preliminary data on its relationships with psychological distress gathered in 10 breast cancer patients are promising. The validity of the Thoughts and Anticipations about Cancer questionnaire will need to be confirmed in larger studies.

Optimistic update bias holds firm: Three tests of robustness following Shah et al

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Three tests reveal the robustness of optimistic belief updating.

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Optimistic belief updating is observed for both positive and negative life events.

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Belief updating is more Bayesian in response to good news than bad.

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It has been claimed that optimistic belief updating does not exist.

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We show that the methodologies used to make this claim are flawed.

A diverse body of research has demonstrated that people update their beliefs to a greater extent when receiving good news compared to bad news. Recently, a paper by Shah et al. claimed that this asymmetry does not exist. Here we carefully examine the experiments and simulations described in Shah et al. and follow their analytic approach on our data sets. After correcting for confounds we identify in the experiments of Shah et al., an optimistic update bias for positive life events is revealed. Contrary to claims made by Shah et al., we observe that participants update their beliefs in a more Bayesian manner after receiving good news than bad. Finally, we show that the parameters Shah et al. pre-selected for simulations are at odds with participants’ data, making these simulations irrelevant to the question asked. Together this report makes a strong case for a true optimistic asymmetry in belief updating.

What is unrealistic optimism?

Here we consider the nature of unrealistic optimism and other related positive illusions. We are interested in whether cognitive states that are unrealistically optimistic are belief states, whether they are false, and whether they are epistemically irrational. We also ask to what extent unrealistically optimistic cognitive states are fixed. Based on the classic and recent empirical literature on unrealistic optimism, we offer some preliminary answers to these questions, thereby laying the foundations for answering further questions about unrealistic optimism, such as whether it has biological, psychological, or epistemic benefits.

The Effect of Overconfidence on Persistent Behavior: The Mediation Effect of "I Think I Can Do It" Rather Than "I'm Attracted To It"

The present study explored the effects of state overconfidence on persistent behavior with consideration of feasibility and desirability as mediators. The persistent behaviors of 61 participants (35 women, 26 men; M age = 20.9 yr, SD = 1.9), placed in overconfidence and under-confidence groups based on random positive or negative bogus feedback, were measured. Results showed that participants with overconfidence were more persistent in solving problems than were those with under-confidence. Further mediation analyses revealed that the rating of the feasibility rather than the desirability of the task mediated the influence of state overconfidence on persistent behaviors. These findings provided future support for the self-justification hypothesis, and addressed arguments regarding the origins of overconfidence.