Probabilistic divergence time estimation without branch lengths: dating the origins of dinosaurs, avian flight and crown birds

Early Jurassic origin of avian endothermy and thermophysiological diversity in dinosaurs

A fundamental question in dinosaur evolution is how they adapted to long-term climatic shifts during the Mesozoic and when they developed environmentally independent, avian-style acclimatization, becoming endothermic.1,2 The ability of warm-blooded dinosaurs to flourish in harsher environments, including cold, high-latitude regions,3,4 raises intriguing questions about the origins of key innovations shared with modern birds,5,6 indicating that the development of homeothermy (keeping constant body temperature) and endothermy (generating body heat) played a crucial role in their ecological diversification.7 Despite substantial evidence across scientific disciplines (anatomy,8 reproduction,9 energetics,10 biomechanics,10 osteohistology,11 palaeobiogeography,12 geochemistry,13,14 and soft tissues15,16,17), a consensus on dinosaur thermophysiology remains elusive.1,12,15,17,18,19 Differential thermophysiological strategies among terrestrial tetrapods allow endotherms (birds and mammals) to expand their latitudinal range (from the tropics to polar regions), owing to their reduced reliance on environmental temperature.20 By contrast, most reptilian lineages (squamates, turtles, and crocodilians) and amphibians are predominantly constrained by temperature in regions closer to the tropics.21 Determining when this macroecological pattern emerged in the avian lineage relies heavily on identifying the origin of these key physiological traits. Combining fossils with macroevolutionary and palaeoclimatic models, we unveil distinct evolutionary pathways in the main dinosaur lineages: ornithischians and theropods diversified across broader climatic landscapes, trending toward cooler niches. An Early Jurassic shift to colder climates in Theropoda suggests an early adoption of endothermy. Conversely, sauropodomorphs exhibited prolonged climatic conservatism associated with higher thermal conditions, emphasizing temperature, rather than plant productivity, as the primary driver of this pattern, suggesting poikilothermy with a stronger dependence on higher temperatures in sauropods.

Charting the Course of Pinniped Evolution: insights from molecular phylogeny and fossil record integration

Pinnipeds (seals, sea lions, walruses, and their fossil relatives) are one of the most successful mammalian clades to live in the oceans. Despite a well-resolved molecular phylogeny and a global fossil record, a complete understanding of their macroevolutionary dynamics remains hampered by a lack of formal analyses that combine these two rich sources of information. We used a meta-analytic approach to infer the most densely sampled pinniped phylogeny to-date (36 recent and 93 fossil taxa) and used phylogenetic paleobiological methods to study their diversification dynamics and biogeographic history. Pinnipeds mostly diversified at constant rates. Walruses however experienced rapid turnover in which extinction rates ultimately exceeded speciation rates from 12-6 Ma, possibly due to changing sea-levels and/or competition with otariids (eared seals). Historical biogeographic analyses including fossil data allowed us to confidently identify the North Pacific and the North Atlantic (plus or minus Paratethys) as the ancestral ranges of Otarioidea (eared seals + walrus) and crown phocids (earless seals), respectively. Yet, despite the novel addition of stem pan-pinniped taxa, the region of origin for Pan-Pinnipedia remained ambiguous. These results suggest further avenues of study in pinnipeds and provide a framework for investigating other groups with substantial extinct and extant diversity.

Locomotion and the early Mesozoic success of Archosauromorpha

The Triassic was a time of ecological upheaval as life recovered from the Permian-Triassic mass extinction. Archosauromorphs were a key component of the recovery, diversifying substantially during the Triassic and encompassing the origins of dinosaurs, pterosaurs and crocodylomorphs. Here, we explore the evolution of locomotion in Archosauromorpha to test whether dinosaurs show any distinctive locomotory features that might explain their success. We implement geometric morphometrics on limb bone shapes and use limb ratios to calculate bipedality and cursoriality metrics. We find that the Avemetatarsalia (dinosaurs, pterosaurs and relatives) exhibit more variable limb form and limb ratios than any other group, indicating a wider range of locomotory modes. The earliest avemetatarsalians were bipedal and cursorial, and their range of form increased through the Triassic with notable diversification shifts following extinction events. This is especially true of dinosaurs, even though these changes cannot be discriminated from a stochastic process. By contrast, the Pseudosuchia (crocodilians and relatives) were more restricted in limb form and locomotor mode with disparity decreasing through time, suggesting more limited locomotor adaptation and vulnerability to extinction. Perhaps the greater locomotor plasticity of dinosaurs gave them a competitive advantage in the changing climates of the Late Triassic.

Decoupling speciation and extinction reveals both abiotic and biotic drivers shaped 250 million years of diversity in crocodile-line archosaurs

Whereas living representatives of Pseudosuchia, crocodylians, number fewer than 30 species, more than 700 pseudosuchian species are known from their 250-million-year fossil record, displaying far greater ecomorphological diversity than their extant counterparts. With a new time-calibrated tree of >500 species, we use a phylogenetic framework to reveal that pseudosuchian evolutionary history and diversification dynamics were directly shaped by the interplay of abiotic and biotic processes over hundreds of millions of years, supported by information theory analyses. Speciation, but not extinction, is correlated with higher temperatures in terrestrial and marine lineages, with high sea level associated with heightened extinction in non-marine taxa. Low lineage diversity and increased speciation in non-marine species is consistent with opportunities for niche-filling, whereas increased competition may have led to elevated extinction rates. In marine lineages, competition via increased lineage diversity appears to have driven both speciation and extinction. Decoupling speciation and extinction, in combination with ecological partitioning, reveals a more complex picture of pseudosuchian evolution than previously understood. As the number of species threatened with extinction by anthropogenic climate change continues to rise, the fossil record provides a unique window into the drivers that led to clade success and those that may ultimately lead to extinction.

Earliest known Gondwanan bird tracks: Wonthaggi Formation (Early Cretaceous), Victoria, Australia

The fossil record for Cretaceous birds in Australia has been limited to rare skeletal material, feathers, and two tracks, a paucity shared with other Gondwanan landmasses. Hence the recent discovery of 27 avian footprints and other traces in the Early Cretaceous (Barremian-Aptian, 128-120 Ma) Wonthaggi Formation of Victoria, Australia amends their previous rarity there, while also confirming the earliest known presence of birds in Australia and the rest of Gondwana. The avian identity of these tracks is verified by their tridactyl forms, thin digits relative to track lengths, wide divarication angles, and sharp claws; three tracks also have hallux imprints. Track forms and sizes indicate a variety of birds as tracemakers, with some among the largest reported from the Early Cretaceous. Although continuous trackways are absent, close spacing and similar alignments of tracks on some bedding planes suggest gregariousness. The occurrence of this avian trace-fossil assemblage in circumpolar fluvial-floodplain facies further implies seasonal behavior, with trackmakers likely leaving their traces on floodplain surfaces during post-thaw summers.

Derived faunivores are the forerunners of major synapsid radiations

Evolutionary radiations generate most of Earth's biodiversity, but are there common ecomorphological traits among the progenitors of radiations? In Synapsida (the mammalian total group), 'small-bodied faunivore' has been hypothesized as the ancestral state of most major radiating clades, but this has not been quantitatively assessed across multiple radiations. To examine macroevolutionary patterns in a phylogenetic context, we generated a time-calibrated metaphylogeny ('metatree') comprising 1,888 synapsid species from the Carboniferous through the Eocene (305-34 Ma) based on 269 published character matrices. We used comparative methods to investigate body size and dietary evolution during successive synapsid radiations. Faunivory is the ancestral dietary regime of each major synapsid radiation, but relatively small body size is only established as the common ancestral state of radiations near the origin of Mammaliaformes in the Late Triassic. The faunivorous ancestors of synapsid radiations typically have numerous novel characters compared with their contemporaries, and these derived traits may have helped them to survive faunal turnover events and subsequently radiate.

Feather function and the evolution of birds

The ability of feathers to perform many functions either simultaneously or at different times throughout the year or life of a bird is integral to the evolutionary history of birds. Many studies focus on single functions of feathers, but any given feather performs many functions over its lifetime. These functions necessarily interact with each other throughout the evolution and development of birds, so our knowledge of avian evolution is incomplete without understanding the multifunctionality of feathers, and how different functions may act synergistically or antagonistically during natural selection. Here, we review how feather functions interact with avian evolution, with a focus on recent technological and discovery-based advances. By synthesising research into feather functions over hierarchical scales (pattern, arrangement, macrostructure, microstructure, nanostructure, molecules), we aim to provide a broad context for how the adaptability and multifunctionality of feathers have allowed birds to diversify into an astounding array of environments and life-history strategies. We suggest that future research into avian evolution involving feather function should consider multiple aspects of a feather, including multiple functions, seasonal wear and renewal, and ecological or mechanical interactions. With this more holistic view, processes such as the evolution of avian coloration and flight can be understood in a broader and more nuanced context.

Extant species fail to estimate ancestral geographical ranges at older nodes in primate phylogeny

A clade's evolutionary history is shaped, in part, by geographical range expansion, sweepstakes dispersal and local extinction. A rigorous understanding of historical biogeography may therefore yield insights into macroevolutionary dynamics such as adaptive radiation. Modern historical biogeographic analyses typically fit statistical models to molecular phylogenies, but it remains unclear whether extant species provide sufficient signal or if well-sampled phylogenies of extinct and extant taxa are necessary to produce meaningful estimates of past ranges. We investigated the historical biogeography of Primates and their euarchontan relatives using a novel meta-analytical phylogeny of over 900 extant (n= 419) and extinct (n = 483) species spanning their entire evolutionary history. Ancestral range estimates for young nodes were largely congruent with those derived from molecular phylogeny. However, node age exerts a significant effect on ancestral range estimate congruence, and the probability of congruent inference dropped below 0.5 for nodes older than the late Eocene, corresponding to the origins of higher-level clades. Discordance was not observed in analyses of extinct taxa alone. Fossils are essential for robust ancestral range inference and biogeographic analyses of extant clades originating in the deep past should be viewed with scepticism without them.

Ecological Transitions and the Shape of the Decapod Tree of Life

Understanding the processes that shaped the distribution of species richness across the Tree of Life is a central macroevolutionary research agenda. Major ecological innovations, including transitions between habitats, may help to explain the striking asymmetries of diversity that are often observed between sister clades. Here, we test the impact of such transitions on speciation rates across decapod crustaceans, modelling diversification dynamics within a phylogenetic framework. Our results show that, while terrestrial lineages have higher speciation rates than either marine or freshwater lineages, there is no difference between mean speciation rates in marine and freshwater lineages across Decapoda. Partitioning our data by infraorder reveals that those clades with habitat heterogeneity have higher speciation rates in freshwater and terrestrial lineages, with freshwater rates up to 1.5 times faster than marine rates, and terrestrial rates approximately four times faster. This averaging out of marine and freshwater speciation rates results from the varying contributions of different clades to average speciation rates. However, with the exception of Caridea, we find no evidence for any causal relationship between habitat and speciation rate. Our results demonstrate that while statistical generalisations about ecological traits and evolutionary rates are valuable, there are many exceptions. Hence, while freshwater and terrestrial lineages typically speciate faster than their marine relatives, there are many atypically slow freshwater lineages and fast marine lineages across Decapoda. Future work on diversification patterns will benefit from the inclusion of fossil data, as well as additional ecological factors.

The Jurassic rise of squamates as supported by lepidosaur disparity and evolutionary rates

The squamates (lizards, snakes, and relatives) today comprise more than 10,000 species, and yet their sister group, the Rhynchocephalia, is represented by a single species today, the tuatara. The explosion in squamate diversity has been tracked back to the Cretaceous Terrestrial Revolution, 100 million years ago (Ma), the time when flowering plants began their takeover of terrestrial ecosystems, associated with diversification of coevolving insects and insect-eating predators such as lizards, birds, and mammals. Squamates arose much earlier, but their long pre-Cretaceous history of some 150 million years (Myr) is documented by sparse fossils. Here, we provide evidence for an initial radiation of squamate morphology in the Middle and Late Jurassic (174-145 Ma), and show that they established their key ecological roles much earlier than had been assumed, and they have not changed them much since.

Strong support for a heterogeneous speciation decline model in Dinosauria: a response to claims made by Bonsor et al. (2020)

Through phylogenetic modelling, we previously presented strong support for diversification decline in the three major subclades of dinosaurs (Sakamoto et al. 2016 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 5036-5040. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1521478113)). Recently, our support for this model has been criticized (Bonsor et al. 2020 R. Soc. Open Sci. 7, 201195. (doi:10.1098/rsos.201195)). Here, we highlight that these criticisms seem to largely stem from a misunderstanding of our study: contrary to Bonsor et al.'s claims, our model accounts for heterogeneity in diversification dynamics, was selected based on deviance information criterion (DIC) scores (not parameter significance), and intercepts were estimated to account for uncertainties in the root age of the phylogenetic tree. We also demonstrate that their new analyses are not comparable to our models: they fit simple, Dinosauria-wide models as a direct comparison to our group-wise models, and their additional trees are subclades that are limited in taxonomic coverage and temporal span, i.e. severely affected by incomplete sampling. We further present results of new analyses on larger, better-sampled trees (N = 961) of dinosaurs, showing support for the time-quadratic model. Disagreements in how we interpret modelled diversification dynamics are to be expected, but criticisms should be based on sound logic and understanding of the model under discussion.

Taxonomic identification bias does not drive patterns of abundance and diversity in theropod dinosaurs

The ability of palaeontologists to correctly diagnose and classify new fossil species from incomplete morphological data is fundamental to our understanding of evolution. Different parts of the vertebrate skeleton have different likelihoods of fossil preservation and varying amounts of taxonomic information, which could bias our interpretations of fossil material. Substantial previous research has focused on the diversity and macroevolution of non-avian theropod dinosaurs. Theropods provide a rich dataset for analysis of the interactions between taxonomic diagnosability and fossil preservation. We use specimen data and formal taxonomic diagnoses to create a new metric, the Likelihood of Diagnosis, which quantifies the diagnostic likelihood of fossil species in relation to bone preservation potential. We use this to assess whether a taxonomic identification bias impacts the non-avian theropod fossil record. We find that the patterns of differential species abundance and clade diversity are not a consequence of their relative diagnosability. Although there are other factors that bias the theropod fossil record that are not investigated here, our results suggest that patterns of relative abundance and diversity for theropods might be more representative of Mesozoic ecology than often considered.

Fossil data support a pre-Cretaceous origin of flowering plants

Flowering plants (angiosperms) are the most diverse of all land plants, becoming abundant in the Cretaceous and achieving dominance in the Cenozoic. However, the exact timing of their origin remains a controversial topic, with molecular clocks generally placing their origin much further back in time than the oldest unequivocal fossils. To resolve this discrepancy, we developed a Bayesian method to estimate the ages of angiosperm families on the basis of the fossil record (a newly compiled dataset of ~15,000 occurrences in 198 families) and their living diversity. Our results indicate that several families originated in the Jurassic, strongly rejecting a Cretaceous origin for the group. We report a marked increase in lineage accumulation from 125 to 72 million years ago, supporting Darwin's hypothesis of a rapid Cretaceous angiosperm diversification. Our results demonstrate that a pre-Cretaceous origin of angiosperms is supported not only by molecular clock approaches but also by analyses of the fossil record that explicitly correct for incomplete sampling.

A Total-Group Phylogenetic Metatree for Cetacea and the Importance of Fossil Data in Diversification Analyses

Phylogenetic trees provide a powerful framework for testing macroevolutionary hypotheses, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that inferences derived from extant species alone can be highly misleading. Trees incorporating living and extinct taxa are are needed to address fundamental questions about the origins of diversity and disparity but it has proved challenging to generate robust, species-rich phylogenies that include large numbers of fossil taxa. As a result, most studies of diversification dynamics continue to rely on molecular phylogenies. Here, we extend and apply a recently developed meta-analytic approach for synthesizing previously published phylogenetic studies to infer a well-resolved set of species level, time-scaled phylogenetic hypotheses for extinct and extant cetaceans (whales, dolphins and allies). Our trees extend sampling from the ∼ 90 extant species to over 500 living and extinct species, and therefore allow for more robust inference of macroevolutionary dynamics. While the diversification scenarios we recover are broadly concordant with those inferred from molecular phylogenies they differ in critical ways, notably in the relative contributions of extinction and speciation rate shifts in driving rapid radiations. The metatree approach provides the most immediate route for generating higher level phylogenies of extinct taxa, and opens the door to re-evaluation of macroevolutionary hypotheses derived only from extant taxa.

Environmental drivers of body size evolution in crocodile-line archosaurs

Ever since Darwin, biologists have debated the relative roles of external and internal drivers of large-scale evolution. The distributions and ecology of living crocodilians are controlled by environmental factors such as temperature. Crocodilians have a rich history, including amphibious, marine and terrestrial forms spanning the past 247 Myr. It is uncertain whether their evolution has been driven by extrinsic factors, such as climate change and mass extinctions, or intrinsic factors like sexual selection and competition. Using a new phylogeny of crocodilians and their relatives, we model evolutionary rates using phylogenetic comparative methods. We find that body size evolution follows a punctuated, variable rate model of evolution, consistent with environmental drivers of evolution, with periods of stability interrupted by periods of change. Regression analyses show warmer environmental temperatures are associated with high evolutionary rates and large body sizes. We confirm that environmental factors played a significant role in the evolution of crocodiles.

Exact Distribution of Divergence Times from Fossil Ages and Tree Topologies

Being given a phylogenetic tree of both extant and extinct taxa in which the fossil ages are the only temporal information (namely, in which divergence times are considered unknown), we provide a method to compute the exact probability distribution of any divergence time of the tree with regard to any speciation (cladogenesis), extinction, and fossilization rates under the Fossilized Birth–Death model. We use this new method to obtain a probability distribution for the age of Amniota (the synapsid/sauropsid or bird/mammal divergence), one of the most-frequently used dating constraints. Our results suggest an older age (between about 322 and 340 Ma) than has been assumed by most studies that have used this constraint (which typically assumed a best estimate around 310–315 Ma) and provide, for the first time, a method to compute the shape of the probability density for this divergence time. [Divergence times; fossil ages; fossilized birth–death model; probability distribution.]

Early high rates and disparity in the evolution of ichthyosaurs

How clades diversify early in their history is integral to understanding the origins of biodiversity and ecosystem recovery following mass extinctions. Moreover, diversification can represent evolutionary opportunities and pressures following ecosystem changes. Ichthyosaurs, Mesozoic marine reptiles, appeared after the end-Permian mass extinction and provide opportunities to assess clade diversification in a changed world. Using recent cladistic data, skull length data, and the most complete phylogenetic trees to date for the group, we present a combined disparity, morphospace, and evolutionary rates analysis that reveals the tempo and mode of ichthyosaur morphological evolution through 160 million years. Ichthyosaur evolution shows an archetypal early burst trend, driven by ecological opportunity in Triassic seas, and an evolutionary bottleneck leading to a long-term reduction in evolutionary rates and disparity. This is represented consistently across all analytical methods by a Triassic peak in ichthyosaur disparity and evolutionary rates, and morphospace separation between Triassic and post-Triassic taxa.

Using the Fossil Record to Evaluate Timetree Timescales

The fossil and geologic records provide the primary data used to established absolute timescales for timetrees. For the paleontological evaluation of proposed timetree timescales, and for node-based methods for constructing timetrees, the fossil record is used to bracket divergence times. Minimum brackets (minimum ages) can be established robustly using well-dated fossils that can be reliably assigned to lineages based on positive morphological evidence. Maximum brackets are much harder to establish, largely because it is difficult to establish definitive evidence that the absence of a taxon in the fossil record is real and not just due to the incompleteness of the fossil and rock records. Five primary methods have been developed to estimate maximum age brackets, each of which is discussed. The fact that the fossilization potential of a group typically decreases the closer one approaches its time of origin increases the challenge of estimating maximum age brackets. Additional complications arise: 1) because fossil data actually bracket the time of origin of the first relevant fossilizable morphology (apomorphy), not the divergence time itself; 2) due to the phylogenetic uncertainty in the placement of fossils; 3) because of idiosyncratic temporal and geographic gaps in the rock and fossil records; and 4) if the preservation potential of a group changed significantly during its history. In contrast, uncertainties in the absolute ages of fossils are typically relatively unimportant, even though the vast majority of fossil cannot be dated directly. These issues and relevant quantitative methods are reviewed, and their relative magnitudes assessed, which typically correlate with the age of the group, its geographic range, and species richness.

The multi-peak adaptive landscape of crocodylomorph body size evolution

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the long-term patterns of body size evolution in Crocodylomorpha, the > 200-million-year-old group that includes living crocodylians and their extinct relatives. Extant crocodylians are mostly large-bodied (3-7 m) predators. However, extinct crocodylomorphs exhibit a wider range of phenotypes, and many of the earliest taxa were much smaller (< 1.2 m). This suggests a pattern of size increase through time that could be caused by multi-lineage evolutionary trends of size increase or by selective extinction of small-bodied species. Here, we characterise patterns of crocodylomorph body size evolution using a model fitting-approach (with cranial measurements serving as proxies). We also estimate body size disparity through time and quantitatively test hypotheses of biotic and abiotic factors as potential drivers of crocodylomorph body size evolution.

RESULTS

Crocodylomorphs reached an early peak in body size disparity during the Late Jurassic, and underwent an essentially continual decline since then. A multi-peak Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model outperforms all other evolutionary models fitted to our data (including both uniform and non-uniform), indicating that the macroevolutionary dynamics of crocodylomorph body size are better described within the concept of an adaptive landscape, with most body size variation emerging after shifts to new macroevolutionary regimes (analogous to adaptive zones). We did not find support for a consistent evolutionary trend towards larger sizes among lineages (i.e., Cope's rule), or strong correlations of body size with climate. Instead, the intermediate to large body sizes of some crocodylomorphs are better explained by group-specific adaptations. In particular, the evolution of a more aquatic lifestyle (especially marine) correlates with increases in average body size, though not without exceptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Shifts between macroevolutionary regimes provide a better explanation of crocodylomorph body size evolution on large phylogenetic and temporal scales, suggesting a central role for lineage-specific adaptations rather than climatic forcing. Shifts leading to larger body sizes occurred in most aquatic and semi-aquatic groups. This, combined with extinctions of groups occupying smaller body size regimes (particularly during the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic), gave rise to the upward-shifted body size distribution of extant crocodylomorphs compared to their smaller-bodied terrestrial ancestors.

Phylogenetic supertree and functional trait database for all extant parrots

We present a complete dataset from the literature on functional traits including morphological measurements, dietary information, foraging strategy, and foraging location for all 398 extant species of parrots. The morphological measurements include: mass, total length, wing chord, culmen length, tarsus length, and tail length. The diet data describe whether each species is known to consume particular food items (e.g. nectar, berries, and carrion), foraging strategy data describes how each species captures or accesses food, and foraging location data describe the habitat from which each species finds food (e.g. ground, canopy, and subcanopy). We also present a time-calibrated phylogenetic supertree that contains all 398 extant species as well as 15 extinct species (413 total species). These data are hosted on the Figshare data depository (https://figshare.com/s/6cdf8cf00793deab7ba6).

Physical and environmental drivers of Paleozoic tetrapod dispersal across Pangaea

The Carboniferous and Permian were crucial intervals in the establishment of terrestrial ecosystems, which occurred alongside substantial environmental and climate changes throughout the globe, as well as the final assembly of the supercontinent of Pangaea. The influence of these changes on tetrapod biogeography is highly contentious, with some authors suggesting a cosmopolitan fauna resulting from a lack of barriers, and some identifying provincialism. Here we carry out a detailed historical biogeographic analysis of late Paleozoic tetrapods to study the patterns of dispersal and vicariance. A likelihood-based approach to infer ancestral areas is combined with stochastic mapping to assess rates of vicariance and dispersal. Both the late Carboniferous and the end-Guadalupian are characterised by a decrease in dispersal and a vicariance peak in amniotes and amphibians. The first of these shifts is attributed to orogenic activity, the second to increasing climate heterogeneity.

The late Paleozoic was a time of major transition for tetrapods. Here, Brocklehurst and colleagues analyse the biogeography of Paleozoic tetrapods and find shifts in dispersal and vicariance associated with Carboniferous mountain formation and end-Guadalupian climate variability.

Dinosaur Macroevolution and Macroecology

Dinosaurs were large-bodied land animals of the Mesozoic that gave rise to birds. They played a fundamental role in structuring Jurassic–Cretaceous ecosystems and had physiology, growth, and reproductive biology unlike those of extant animals. These features have made them targets of theoretical macroecology. Dinosaurs achieved substantial structural diversity, and their fossil record documents the evolutionary assembly of the avian body plan. Phylogeny-based research has allowed new insights into dinosaur macroevolution, including the adaptive landscape of their body size evolution, patterns of species diversification, and the origins of birds and bird-like traits. Nevertheless, much remains unknown due to incompleteness of the fossil record at both local and global scales. This presents major challenges at the frontier of paleobiological research regarding tests of macroecological hypotheses and the effects of dinosaur biology, ecology, and life history on their macroevolution.

An inverse latitudinal gradient in speciation rate for marine fishes

Far more species of organisms are found in the tropics than in temperate and polar regions, but the evolutionary and ecological causes of this pattern remain controversial^1,2. Tropical marine fish communities are much more diverse than cold-water fish communities found at higher latitudes^3,4, and several explanations for this latitudinal diversity gradient propose that warm reef environments serve as evolutionary 'hotspots' for species formation^5-8. Here we test the relationship between latitude, species richness and speciation rate across marine fishes. We assembled a time-calibrated phylogeny of all ray-finned fishes (31,526 tips, of which 11,638 had genetic data) and used this framework to describe the spatial dynamics of speciation in the marine realm. We show that the fastest rates of speciation occur in species-poor regions outside the tropics, and that high-latitude fish lineages form new species at much faster rates than their tropical counterparts. High rates of speciation occur in geographical regions that are characterized by low surface temperatures and high endemism. Our results reject a broad class of mechanisms under which the tropics serve as an evolutionary cradle for marine fish diversity and raise new questions about why the coldest oceans on Earth are present-day hotspots of species formation.

Discrete and continuous character-based disparity analyses converge to the same macroevolutionary signal: a case study from captorhinids

The relationship between diversity and disparity during the evolutionary history of a clade provides unique insights into evolutionary radiations and the biological response to bottlenecks and to extinctions. Here we present the first comprehensive comparison of diversity and disparity of captorhinids, a group of basal amniotes that is important for understanding the early evolution of high-fiber herbivory. A new fully resolved phylogeny is presented, obtained by the inclusion of 31 morphometric characters. The new dataset is used to calculate diversity and disparity through the evolutionary history of the clade, using both discrete and continuous characters. Captorhinids do not show a decoupling between diversity and disparity, and are characterized by a rather symmetric disparity distribution, with a peak in occupied morphospace at about the midpoint of the clade's evolutionary history (Kungurian). This peak represents a delayed adaptive radiation, identified by the first appearance of several high-fiber herbivores in the clade, along with numerous omnivorous taxa. The discrete characters and continuous morphometric characters indicate the same disparity trends. Therefore, we argue that in the absence of one of these two possible proxies, the disparity obtained from just one source can be considered robust and representative of a general disparity pattern.

Probabilistic divergence time estimation without branch lengths: dating the origins of dinosaurs, avian flight and crown birds

Branch lengths—measured in character changes—are an essential requirement of clock-based divergence estimation, regardless of whether the fossil calibrations used represent nodes or tips. However, a separate set of divergence time approaches are typically used to date palaeontological trees, which may lack such branch lengths. Among these methods, sophisticated probabilistic approaches have recently emerged, in contrast with simpler algorithms relying on minimum node ages. Here, using a novel phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs, we apply two such approaches to estimate divergence times for: (i) Dinosauria, (ii) Avialae (the earliest birds) and (iii) Neornithes (crown birds). We find: (i) the plausibility of a Permian origin for dinosaurs to be dependent on whether Nyasasaurus is the oldest dinosaur, (ii) a Middle to Late Jurassic origin of avian flight regardless of whether Archaeopteryx or Aurornis is considered the first bird and (iii) a Late Cretaceous origin for Neornithes that is broadly congruent with other node- and tip-dating estimates. Demonstrating the feasibility of probabilistic time-scaling further opens up divergence estimation to the rich histories of extinct biodiversity in the fossil record, even in the absence of detailed character data.

Developmental mechanisms of macroevolutionary change in the tetrapod axis: A case study of Sauropterygia

Understanding how developmental processes change on macroevolutionary timescales to generate body plan disparity is fundamental to the study of vertebrate evolution. Adult morphology of the vertebral column directly reflects the mechanisms that generate vertebral counts (somitogenesis) and their regionalisation (homeotic effects) during embryonic development. Sauropterygians were a group of Mesozoic marine reptiles that exhibited an extremely high disparity of presacral vertebral/somite counts. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we demonstrate that somitogenesis and homeotic effects evolved in a co-ordinated way among sauropterygians, contrasting with the wider pattern in tetrapods, in which somitogenetic and homeotic shifts are uncorrelated. Changes in sauropterygian body proportions were primarily enabled by homeotic shifts, with a lesser, but important, contribution from differences in postpatterning growth among somites. High body plan plasticity was present in Triassic sauropterygians and was maintained among their Jurassic and Cretaceous descendants. The extreme disparity in the body plan of plesiosaurian sauropterygians did not result from accelerated rates of evolutionary change in neck length, but instead reflect this ancestral versatility of sauropterygian axial development. Our results highlight variation in modes of axial development among tetrapods, and show that heterogeneous statistical models can uncover novel macroevolutionary patterns for animal body plans and the developmental mechanisms that control them.

Rates of morphological evolution in Captorhinidae: an adaptive radiation of Permian herbivores

The evolution of herbivory in early tetrapods was crucial in the establishment of terrestrial ecosystems, although it is so far unclear what effect this innovation had on the macro-evolutionary patterns observed within this clade. The clades that entered this under-filled region of ecospace might be expected to have experienced an "adaptive radiation": an increase in rates of morphological evolution and speciation driven by the evolution of a key innovation. However such inferences are often circumstantial, being based on the coincidence of a rate shift with the origin of an evolutionary novelty. The conclusion of an adaptive radiation may be made more robust by examining the pattern of the evolutionary shift; if the evolutionary innovation coincides not only with a shift in rates of morphological evolution, but specifically in the morphological characteristics relevant to the ecological shift of interest, then one may more plausibly infer a causal relationship between the two. Here I examine the impact of diet evolution on rates of morphological change in one of the earliest tetrapod clades to evolve high-fibre herbivory: Captorhinidae. Using a method of calculating heterogeneity in rates of discrete character change across a phylogeny, it is shown that a significant increase in rates of evolution coincides with the transition to herbivory in captorhinids. The herbivorous captorhinids also exhibit greater morphological disparity than their faunivorous relatives, indicating more rapid exploration of new regions of morphospace. As well as an increase in rates of evolution, there is a shift in the regions of the skeleton undergoing the most change; the character changes in the herbivorous lineages are concentrated in the mandible and dentition. The fact that the increase in rates of evolution coincides with increased change in characters relating to food acquisition provides stronger evidence for a causal relationship between the herbivorous diet and the radiation event.