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Meyer A, Weiker J, Meyer R. Laboratory testing and on-site storage are successful at mitigating the risk of release of foot-and-mouth disease virus via production of bull semen in the USA. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0294036. [PMID: 37934775 PMCID: PMC10629637 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/24/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Thousands of frozen bovine semen doses are produced daily in the US for domestic use. An incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the country would pose strong challenges to the movements of animals and animal products between premises. Secure supply plans require an estimation of the risk associated with target commodities and the effectiveness of mitigation measures. This study presents the results of a quantitative assessment of the risk of release of FMD virus from five of the largest commercial bull studs in the US via contaminated frozen processed semen. The methodology from a previous study was adapted to better fit the US production system and includes more recent data. Two models were combined, a deterministic compartmental model of FMD transmission and a stochastic risk assessment model. The compartmental model simulated an FMD outbreak within a collection facility, following the introduction of a latent-infected bull. The risk of release was defined as the annual likelihood of releasing at least one frozen semen batch, defined as the total amount of semen collected from a single bull on a given collection day, containing viable FMD virus. A scenario tree was built using nine steps leading from the collection to the release of a contaminated batch from a given facility. The first step, the annual probability of an FMD outbreak in a given facility, was modeled using an empirical distribution fitted to incidence data predicted by five models published between 2012 and 2022. An extra step was added to the previously published risk pathway, to account for routine serological or virological surveillance within facilities. The results showed that the mitigation measures included in the assessment were effective at reducing the risk of release. The median annual risk of release from the five facilities was estimated at less than 2 in 10 billion (1.5 x 10-10) in the scenario including a 30-day storage, routine genome detection assays performed every two weeks and RT-PCR testing of the semen. In this scenario, there was a 95% chance that the risk of release would be lower than 0.00041. This work provides strong support to the industry for improving their response plans to an incursion of FMD virus in the US.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jay Weiker
- National Association of Animal Breeders/Certified Semen Services, Inc., Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Rory Meyer
- National Association of Animal Breeders/Certified Semen Services, Inc., Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
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2
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Modeling nation-wide U.S. swine movement networks at the resolution of the individual premises. Epidemics 2022; 41:100636. [PMID: 36274568 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100636] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2022] [Revised: 09/14/2022] [Accepted: 09/20/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The spread of infectious livestock diseases is a major cause for concern in modern agricultural systems. In the dynamics of the transmission of such diseases, movements of livestock between herds play an important role. When constructing mathematical models used for activities such as forecasting epidemic development, evaluating mitigation strategies, or determining important targets for disease surveillance, including between-premises shipments is often a necessity. In the United States (U.S.), livestock shipment data is not routinely collected, and when it is, it is not readily available and mostly concerned with between-state shipments. To bridge this gap in knowledge and provide insight into the complete livestock shipment network structure, we have developed the U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM). Previously, USAMM has only existed for cattle shipments, but here we present a version for domestic swine. This new version of USAMM consists of a Bayesian model fit to premises demography, county-level livestock industry variables, and two limited data sets of between-state swine movements. The model scales up the data to simulate nation-wide networks of both within- and between-state shipments at the level of individual premises. Here we describe this shipment model in detail and subsequently explore its usefulness with a rudimentary predictive model of the prevalence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) across the U.S. Additionally, in order to promote further research on livestock disease and other topics involving the movements of swine in the U.S., we also make 250 synthetic premises-level swine shipment networks with complete coverage of the entire conterminous U.S. freely available to the research community as a useful surrogate for the absent shipment data.
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Gilbertson K, Brommesson P, Minter A, Hallman C, Miller RS, Portacci K, Sellman S, Tildesley MJ, Webb CT, Lindström T, Beck-Johnson LM. The Importance of Livestock Demography and Infrastructure in Driving Foot and Mouth Disease Dynamics. Life (Basel) 2022; 12:1604. [PMID: 36295038 PMCID: PMC9605081 DOI: 10.3390/life12101604] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2022] [Revised: 09/25/2022] [Accepted: 10/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD) pose a significant and ongoing threat to global food security. Such diseases can produce large, spatially complex outbreaks. Mathematical models are often used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and create response plans for possible disease introductions. Model assumptions regarding transmission behavior of premises and movement patterns of livestock directly impact our understanding of the ecological drivers of outbreaks and how to best control them. Here, we investigate the impact that these assumptions have on model predictions of FMD outbreaks in the U.S. using models of livestock shipment networks and disease spread. We explore the impact of changing assumptions about premises transmission behavior, both by including within-herd dynamics, and by accounting for premises type and increasing the accuracy of shipment predictions. We find that the impact these assumptions have on outbreak predictions is less than the impact of the underlying livestock demography, but that they are important for investigating some response objectives, such as the impact on trade. These results suggest that demography is a key ecological driver of outbreaks and is critical for making robust predictions but that understanding management objectives is also important when making choices about model assumptions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kendra Gilbertson
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, 1878 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - Peter Brommesson
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden
| | - Amanda Minter
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Clayton Hallman
- USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
| | - Ryan S. Miller
- USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
| | - Katie Portacci
- USDA APHIS Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
| | - Stefan Sellman
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden
| | - Michael J. Tildesley
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
| | - Colleen T. Webb
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, 1878 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - Tom Lindström
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden
| | - Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, 1878 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
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Manlove K, Wilber M, White L, Bastille‐Rousseau G, Yang A, Gilbertson MLJ, Craft ME, Cross PC, Wittemyer G, Pepin KM. Defining an epidemiological landscape that connects movement ecology to pathogen transmission and pace‐of‐life. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1760-1782. [DOI: 10.1111/ele.14032] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2021] [Revised: 04/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/03/2022] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Kezia Manlove
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah USA
| | - Mark Wilber
- Department of Forestry, Wildlife, and Fisheries University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture Knoxville Tennessee USA
| | - Lauren White
- National Socio‐Environmental Synthesis Center University of Maryland Annapolis Maryland USA
| | | | - Anni Yang
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USA
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services National Wildlife Research Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability University of Oklahoma Norman Oklahoma USA
| | - Marie L. J. Gilbertson
- Department of Veterinary Population Medicine University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
- Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
| | - Meggan E. Craft
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior University of Minnesota St. Paul Minnesota USA
| | - Paul C. Cross
- U.S. Geological Survey Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center Bozeman Montana USA
| | - George Wittemyer
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Kim M. Pepin
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services National Wildlife Research Center Fort Collins Colorado USA
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Guyver-Fletcher G, Gorsich EE, Tildesley MJ. A model exploration of carrier and movement transmission as potential explanatory causes for the persistence of foot-and-mouth disease in endemic regions. Transbound Emerg Dis 2021; 69:2712-2726. [PMID: 34936219 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2021] [Revised: 11/26/2021] [Accepted: 12/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a virulent and economically important disease of livestock, still endemic in many areas of Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission from persistently infected livestock, also known as carriers, has been proposed as a mechanism to support the persistence of FMD in endemic regions. However, whether carrier livestock can infect susceptible animals is controversial; recovered virus is infectious and there are claims of field transmission, but it remains undemonstrated experimentally. Alternate hypotheses for persistence include the movement of livestock within and between regions, and fomite contamination of the environment. Using a stochastic compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model, we investigate the minimum rates of carrier transmission necessary to contribute to the maintenance of FMD in a region, and compare this to the alternate mechanism of persistence through cattle shipments. We find that carrier transmission can theoretically support persistence even at transmission rates much lower than the highest realistic rates previously proposed, and that the parameters with the most effect on the feasibility of carrier-mediated persistence are the average duration of both the carrier phase and natural immunity. However, shipment-mediated persistence remains a viable alternate mechanism for persistence without carrier transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Glen Guyver-Fletcher
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.,School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - Erin E Gorsich
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.,School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
| | - Michael J Tildesley
- Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.,School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.,Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
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Lorenzoni A, Tsoulli C, McCarthy (APHA) C, Adkin A. Integration of computational tools, data analysis and social science into food safety risk assessment. EFSA J 2020; 18:e181108. [PMID: 33294047 PMCID: PMC7691617 DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2020.e181108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The EU-FORA Fellowship Programme 'Integration of tools and social science into food safety risk assessments' was proposed by the Food Standards Agency (FSA), the government department responsible for food safety in the UK. The working programme was organised into four modules, covering different areas of risk assessment, including microbiological risk assessment, chemical risk assessment, exposure assessment, risk prioritisation and the integration of risk assessment with social science. During this period, the fellow had the unique opportunity to gain experience in different fields of risk assessment, namely how to conduct a systematic review, to assess the risk of microbiological and chemical hazards, to make use of modelling tools for exposure assessment and risk prioritisation, to write scientific reports for committees and networks at the national level and to understand the role of social science in risk assessment. In addition, the fellow was able to attend several meetings, seminars, courses and workshops that helped him to gain further insight in the field of food science. The complete programme enabled a fast learning curve that allowed the fellow to have an overview of the different tools that can be employed in the wide field of food safety risk assessment, in order to acquire skills and competences that can be used in his future career.
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Garabed RB, Jolles A, Garira W, Lanzas C, Gutierrez J, Rempala G. Multi-scale dynamics of infectious diseases. Interface Focus 2019. [DOI: 10.1098/rsfs.2019.0118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
To address the challenge of multiscale dynamics of infectious diseases, the Mathematical Biosciences Institute organized a workshop at The Ohio State University to bring together scientists from a variety of disciplines to share expertise gained through looking at infectious diseases across different scales. The researchers at the workshop, held in April 2018, were specifically looking at three model systems: foot-and-mouth disease, vector-borne diseases and enteric diseases. Although every multiscale model must be necessarily derived from a multiscale system, not every multiscale system has to lead to multiscale models. These three model systems seem to have produced a variety of both multiscale and integrated single-scale mechanistic models that have developed their own strengths and particular challenges. Here, we present papers from some of the workshop participants to show the breadth of the field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca B. Garabed
- College of Veterinary Medicine–Preventive Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Anna Jolles
- Carlson College of Veterinary Medicine, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
- Integrative Biology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
| | - Winston Garira
- Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Venda, Thohoyandou, Limpopo, South Africa
| | | | - Juan Gutierrez
- Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA
| | - Grzegorz Rempala
- College of Public Health–Biostatistics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
- College of Arts and Sciences–Mathematics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
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