The canine distemper epidemic in Serengeti: are lions victims of a new highly virulent canine distemper virus strain, or is pathogen circulation stochasticity to blame?

Seroprevalence of canine distemper virus (CDV) in the free-roaming dog (Canis familiaris) population surrounding Chitwan National Park, Nepal

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a global multi-host pathogen that is capable of causing considerable mortality in a range of species and is important in the field of conservation medicine. Nepal's Chitwan National Park is a protected area providing habitat for 32% of the country's mammal species including endangered carnivores such as the Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) that are susceptible to CDV. The presence of free-roaming dogs around protected areas could represent a source of infectious disease for transmission to local wildlife. A cross-sectional demographic and canine distemper virus seroprevalence study of 100 free-roaming dogs from the Chitwan National Park buffer zone and surrounding area was conducted in November 2019. The overall seroprevalence indicating past exposure to canine distemper virus was 80.0% (95% CI: 70.8-87.3). Of the host variables assessed, sex and age were positively associated with seroprevalence at the univariable level, with male dogs demonstrating lower seroprevalence than females (OR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.11-0.91) and adult dogs demonstrating higher seroprevalence than juveniles (OR = 13.94, 95% CI: 1.37-142.29). The effect of sex was no longer significant at the multivariable level, but the direction of the effect remained the same. The effect of age remained significant after multivariable analysis (OR = 9.00, 95% CI: 1.03-192.75). No spatial associations were demonstrated in relation to the buffer zone area or boundary of Chitwan National Park. Free-roaming dog neutering and vaccination programmes can provide a useful baseline for future CDV studies in the region, and a proxy to monitor disease threats to susceptible wildlife.

Advances in canine distemper virus pathogenesis research: a wildlife perspective

Canine distemper virus (CDV) has emerged as a significant disease of wildlife, which is highly contagious and readily transmitted between susceptible hosts. Initially described as an infectious disease of domestic dogs, it is now recognized as a global multi-host pathogen, infecting and causing mass mortalities in a wide range of carnivore species. The last decade has seen the effect of numerous CDV outbreaks in various wildlife populations. Prevention of CDV requires a clear understanding of the potential hosts in danger of infection as well as the dynamic pathways CDV uses to gain entry to its host cells and its ability to initiate viral shedding and disease transmission. We review recent research conducted on CDV infections in wildlife, including the latest findings on the causes of host specificity and cellular receptors involved in distemper pathogenesis.

Canine distemper virus in the Serengeti ecosystem: molecular adaptation to different carnivore species

Was the 1993/1994 fatal canine distemper virus (CDV) epidemic in lions and spotted hyaenas in the Serengeti ecosystem caused by the recent spillover of a virulent domestic dog strain or one well adapted to these noncanids? We examine this question using sequence data from 13 'Serengeti' strains including five complete genomes obtained between 1993 and 2011. Phylogenetic and haplotype network analyses reveal that strains from noncanids during the epidemic were more closely related to each other than to those from domestic or wild canids. All noncanid 'Serengeti' strains during the epidemic encoded: (1) one novel substitution G134S in the CDV-V protein; and (2) the rare amino acid combination 519I/549H at two sites under positive selection in the region of the CDV-H protein that binds to SLAM (CD 150) host cell receptors. Worldwide, only a few noncanid strains in the America II lineage encode CDV-H 519I/549H. All canid 'Serengeti' strains during the epidemic coded CDV-V 134G, and CDV-H 519R/549Y, or 519R/549H. A functional assay of cell entry revealed the highest performance by CDV-H proteins encoding 519I/549H in cells expressing lion SLAM receptors, and the highest performance by proteins encoding 519R/549Y, typical of dog strains worldwide, in cells expressing dog SLAM receptors. Our findings are consistent with an epidemic in lions and hyaenas caused by CDV variants better adapted to noncanids than canids, but not with the recent spillover of a dog strain. Our study reveals a greater complexity of CDV molecular epidemiology in multihost environments than previously thought.

EVALUATION OF TWO CANINE DISTEMPER VIRUS VACCINES IN CAPTIVE TIGERS (PANTHERA TIGRIS)

Canine distemper virus (CDV) has caused clinical disease and death in nondomestic felids in both captive settings and in the wild. Outbreaks resulting in high mortality rates in tigers (Panthera tigris) have prompted some zoos to vaccinate tigers for CDV. In this study, six tigers received a recombinant canarypox-vectored CDV vaccine (1 ml s.c.) and were revaccinated with 3 ml s.c. (mean) 39 days later. Blood collection for CDV antibody detection via serum neutralization was performed on (mean) days 0, 26, and 66 post-initial vaccination. No tigers had detectable antibodies at days 0 or 26, and only two tigers had low (16 and 32) antibody titers at day 66. Eight additional tigers received a live, attenuated CDV vaccine (1 ml s.c.) on day 0 and were revaccinated with 1 ml s.c. (mean) 171 days later. Blood collection for CDV antibody detection via serum neutralization was performed on (mean) days 0, 26, 171, and 196. Seven of eight tigers receiving the live, attenuated vaccine had no detectable titers prior to vaccination, but all animals had titers of >128 (range 128-1,024) at day 26. At 171 days, all tigers still had detectable titers (geometric mean 69.8, range 16-256), and at 196 days (2 wk post-revaccination) all but two showed an increase to >128 (range 32-512). To determine safety, an additional 41 tigers were vaccinated with 2 ml of a recombinant vaccine containing only CDV components, and an additional 38 tigers received 1 ml of the live, attenuated vaccine, administered either subcutaneously or intramuscularly; no serious adverse effects were noted. Although both vaccines appear safe, the live, attenuated vaccine produced a stronger and more consistent serologic response in tigers.

Ascarid infestation in captive Siberian tigers in China

The Siberian tiger is endangered and is listed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature; the captive environment is utilized to maintain Siberian tiger numbers. Little information regarding the prevalence of parasites in Siberian tigers is available. A total of 277 fecal samples of Siberian tigers were analyzed in this study. The microscopic analysis indicated the presence of ascarid eggs of Toxascaris leonina and Toxocara cati. The ascarid infection rate was 67.5% in Siberian tigers. The internal transcribed spacer-1 (ITS-1) phylogenetic analysis indicated that T. leonina belonged to Toxascaris and that Toxo. cati belonged to Toxocara. The infestation rate and intensity of T. leonina were higher than those of Toxo. cati. One-way analysis of variance showed that the presence of T. leonina was significantly associated with age (P<0.05). Temperature changes also influenced T. leonina and Toxo. cati infestation, and a rise in temperature caused an increase in the number of T. leonina and Toxo. cati eggs. This study provides a better understanding of ascarid infestation among the captive Siberian tigers and is helpful for the prevention of the spread of infectious parasitic diseases among other tigers in the zoo.

Phylogenetic features of hemagglutin gene in canine distemper virus strains from different genetic lineages

In the present study, the genotype of two Canine distemper virus (CDV) strains, namely, ZJJ-SD and ZJJ-LN, were investigated, based on the whole hemagglutinin (HA) gene. The CDV strains were obtained from two foxes in Shandong Province and Liaoning Province in 2011. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out for 260 CDV strains worldwide, and a statistical analysis was performed in the amino acid substitutions at positions 530 and 549 of the HA protein. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the two strains, ZJJ-SD and ZJJ-LN, belonged to the CDV Asia I lineage. Site 530 of HA protein was found to be relatively conserved within CDV lineages in different host species by combining the genetic sequence data with the published data from 260 CDV strains worldwide. The data analysis showed a bias toward the predicted substitution Y549H for the non-dog strains in Asia I and Europe lineages. The ratio of site 549 genetic drift in the HA gene were significantly different between dogs and non-dogs in the two lineages. The strain ZJJ-SD, from wild canid, has an Y549H substitution. It is one of three Y549H substitution for wild canids in Asia I lineages. Site 530 of HA protein was not immediately relative to CDV genetic drift from dogs to non-dogs. Statistical analysis indicated that non-dog strains have a high probability to contain Y549H than dog strains in Asia I and Europe lineages. Thus, site 549 is considered important in genetic drift from dogs to non-dogs, at least in Asia I and Europe lineages.

Canine distemper virus neutralization activity is low in human serum and it is sensitive to an amino acid substitution in the hemagglutinin protein

Serum was analyzed from 146 healthy adult volunteers in eastern Africa to evaluate measles virus (MV) and canine distemper virus (CDV) neutralizing antibody (nAb) prevalence and potency. MV plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) results indicated that all sera were positive for MV nAbs. Furthermore, the 50% neutralizing dose (ND50) for the majority of sera corresponded to antibody titers induced by MV vaccination. CDV nAbs titers were low and generally were detected in sera with high MV nAb titers. A mutant CDV was generated that was less sensitive to neutralization by human serum. The mutant virus genome had 10 nucleotide substitutions, which coded for single amino acid substitutions in the fusion (F) and hemagglutinin (H) glycoproteins and two substitutions in the large polymerase (L) protein. The H substitution occurred in a conserved region involved in receptor interactions among morbilliviruses, implying that this region is a target for cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies.

Detection of Arctic and European cluster of canine distemper virus in north and center of Iran

Canine distemper virus (CDV) creates a very contagious viral multi-systemic canine distemper (CD) disease that affects most species of Carnivora order. The virus is genetically heterogeneous, particularly in section of the hemagglutinin (H) gene. Sequence analysis of the H gene can be useful to investigate distinction of various lineages related to geographical distribution and CDV molecular epidemiology. Since vaccination program is conducted only in large cities of Iran, CD still remains as one of the major causes of death in dogs in this country. In order to monitor H gene, CDV has been detected in 14 out of 19 sampled dogs through the amplification of nucleoprotein (NP) gene in nested-PCR assay. In the next step 665 bp of H gene was amplified in 9 out of 14 NP-gene positive dogs. Phylogenetic analysis distinguished two distinct CDV genotypes in Iran. JN941238 has been embedded in European cluster and JN941239 has been embedded in Arctic cluster. Nucleic analysis has been shown high difference among both Iranian CDV lineages with CDV vaccine strains.

Long antibody persistence and transgenerational transfer of immunity in a long-lived vertebrate

Although little studied in natural populations, the persistence of immunoglobulins may dramatically affect the dynamics of immunity and the ecology and evolution of host-pathogen interactions involving vertebrate hosts. By means of a multiple-year vaccination design against Newcastle disease virus, we experimentally addressed whether levels of specific antibodies can persist over several years in females of a long-lived procellariiform seabird-Cory's shearwater-and whether maternal antibodies against that antigen could persist over a long period in offspring several years after the mother was exposed. We found that a single vaccination led to high levels of antibodies for several years and that the females transmitted antibodies to their offspring that persisted for several weeks after hatching even 5 years after a single vaccination. The temporal persistence of maternally transferred antibodies in nestlings was highly dependent on the level at hatching. A second vaccination boosted efficiently the level of antibodies in females and thus their transfer to offspring. Overall, these results stress the need to consider the temporal dynamics of immune responses if we are to understand the evolutionary ecology of host-parasite interactions and trade-offs between immunity and other life-history characteristics, in particular in long-lived species. They also have strong implications for conservation when vaccination may be used in natural populations facing disease threats.

Length of intervals between epidemics: evaluating the influence of maternal transfer of immunity

The length of intervals between epidemic outbreaks of infectious diseases is critical in epidemiology. In several species of marine mammals and birds, it is pivotal to also consider the life history of the species of concern, as the contact rate between individuals can have a seasonal flux, for example, due to aggregations during the breeding season. Recently, particular interest has been given to the role of the dynamics of immunity in determining the intervals between epidemics in wild animal populations. One potentially powerful, but often neglected, process in this context is the maternal transfer of immunity. Here, we explore theoretically how the transfer of maternal antibodies can delay the recurrence of epidemics using Phocine Distemper in harbor seals as an example of a system in which epidemic outbreaks are followed by pathogen extinction. We show that the presence of temporarily protected newborns can significantly increase the predicted interval between epidemics, and this effect is strongly dependent on the degree of synchrony in the breeding season. Furthermore, we found that stochasticity in the onset of epidemics in combination with maternally acquired immunity increases the predicted intervals between epidemics even more. These effects arise because newborns with maternal antibodies temporarily boost population level immunity above the threshold of herd immunity, particularly when breeding is synchronous. Overall, our results show that maternal antibodies can have a profound influence on the dynamics of wildlife epidemics, notably in gregarious species such as many marine mammals and seabirds.

Discovery of a bovine enterovirus in alpaca

A cytopathic virus was isolated using Madin-Darby bovine kidney (MDBK) cells from lung tissue of alpaca that died of a severe respiratory infection. To identify the virus, the infected cell culture supernatant was enriched for virus particles and a generic, PCR-based method was used to amplify potential viral sequences. Genomic sequence data of the alpaca isolate was obtained and compared with sequences of known viruses. The new alpaca virus sequence was most similar to recently designated Enterovirus species F, previously bovine enterovirus (BEVs), viruses that are globally prevalent in cattle, although they appear not to cause significant disease. Because bovine enteroviruses have not been previously reported in U.S. alpaca, we suspect that this type of infection is fairly rare, and in this case appeared not to spread beyond the original outbreak. The capsid sequence of the detected virus had greatest homology to Enterovirus F type 1 (indicating that the virus should be considered a member of serotype 1), but the virus had greater homology in 2A protease sequence to type 3, suggesting that it may have been a recombinant. Identifying pathogens that infect a new host species for the first time can be challenging. As the disease in a new host species may be quite different from that in the original or natural host, the pathogen may not be suspected based on the clinical presentation, delaying diagnosis. Although this virus replicated in MDBK cells, existing standard culture and molecular methods could not identify it. In this case, a highly sensitive generic PCR-based pathogen-detection method was used to identify this pathogen.

Phylogenetic analysis of the haemagglutinin gene of canine distemper virus strains detected from giant panda and raccoon dogs in China

BACKGROUND

Canine distemper virus (CDV) infects a variety of carnivores, including wild and domestic Canidae. In this study, we sequenced and phylogenetic analyses of the hemagglutinin (H) genes from eight canine distemper virus (CDV) isolates obtained from seven raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and a giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in China.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analysis of the partial hemagglutinin gene sequences showed close clustering for geographic lineages, clearly distinct from vaccine strains and other wild-type foreign CDV strains, all the CDV strains were characterized as Asia-1 genotype and were highly similar to each other (91.5-99.8% nt and 94.4-99.8% aa). The giant panda and raccoon dogs all were 549Y on the HA protein in this study, irrespective of the host species.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings enhance our knowledge of the genetic characteristics of Chinese CDV isolates, and may facilitate the development of effective strategies for monitoring and controlling CDV for wild canids and non-canids in China.

Infectious disease, endangerment, and extinction

Infectious disease, especially virulent infectious disease, is commonly regarded as a cause of fluctuation or decline in biological populations. However, it is not generally considered as a primary factor in causing the actual endangerment or extinction of species. We review here the known historical examples in which disease has, or has been assumed to have had, a major deleterious impact on animal species, including extinction, and highlight some recent cases in which disease is the chief suspect in causing the outright endangerment of particular species. We conclude that the role of disease in historical extinctions at the population or species level may have been underestimated. Recent methodological breakthroughs may lead to a better understanding of the past and present roles of infectious disease in influencing population fitness and other parameters.

Antagonistic pleiotropy and fitness trade-offs reveal specialist and generalist traits in strains of canine distemper virus

Theoretically, homogeneous environments favor the evolution of specialists whereas heterogeneous environments favor generalists. Canine distemper is a multi-host carnivore disease caused by canine distemper virus (CDV). The described cell receptor of CDV is SLAM (CD150). Attachment of CDV hemagglutinin protein (CDV-H) to this receptor facilitates fusion and virus entry in cooperation with the fusion protein (CDV-F). We investigated whether CDV strains co-evolved in the large, homogeneous domestic dog population exhibited specialist traits, and strains adapted to the heterogeneous environment of smaller populations of different carnivores exhibited generalist traits. Comparison of amino acid sequences of the SLAM binding region revealed higher similarity between sequences from Canidae species than to sequences from other carnivore families. Using an in vitro assay, we quantified syncytia formation mediated by CDV-H proteins from dog and non-dog CDV strains in cells expressing dog, lion or cat SLAM. CDV-H proteins from dog strains produced significantly higher values with cells expressing dog SLAM than with cells expressing lion or cat SLAM. CDV-H proteins from strains of non-dog species produced similar values in all three cell types, but lower values in cells expressing dog SLAM than the values obtained for CDV-H proteins from dog strains. By experimentally changing one amino acid (Y549H) in the CDV-H protein of one dog strain we decreased expression of specialist traits and increased expression of generalist traits, thereby confirming its functional importance. A virus titer assay demonstrated that dog strains produced higher titers in cells expressing dog SLAM than cells expressing SLAM of non-dog hosts, which suggested possible fitness benefits of specialization post-cell entry. We provide in vitro evidence for the expression of specialist and generalist traits by CDV strains, and fitness trade-offs across carnivore host environments caused by antagonistic pleiotropy. These findings extend knowledge on CDV molecular epidemiology of particular relevance to wild carnivores.

Epidemiology of canine distemper virus in wild raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) from South Korea

Raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) are widespread and common in South Korea. In 2011, we obtained serum samples from 102 wild raccoon dogs to survey their exposure to canine distemper virus (CDV). Forty-five of the 102 animals (44.1%) were seropositive. Field cases of canine distemper in wild raccoon dogs from 2010 to 2011 were investigated. Fourteen cases of CDV infection were identified by a commercially available CDV antigen detection kit. These cases were used for virus isolation and molecular analysis. Sequence analysis of hemagglutinin genes indicated that all viruses isolated belonged to the Asia-2 genotype. H protein residues which are related to the receptor and host specificity (residues 530 and 549) were analyzed. A glutamic acid (E) residue is present at 530 in all isolates. At 549, a histidine (H) residue was found in five isolates and tyrosine (Y) residue was found in 6 isolates. Our study demonstrated that CDV infection was widespread in wild raccoon dogs in South Korea.

The impact of a pathogenic bacterium on a social carnivore population

1. The long-term ecological impact of pathogens on group-living, large mammal populations is largely unknown. We evaluated the impact of a pathogenic bacterium, Streptococcus equi ruminatorum, and other key ecological factors on the dynamics of the spotted hyena Crocuta crocuta population in the Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania. 2. We compared key demographic parameters during two years when external signs of bacterial infection were prevalent ('outbreak') and periods of five years before and after the outbreak when such signs were absent or rare. We also tested for density dependence and calculated the basic reproductive rate R(0) of the bacterium. 3. During the five pre-outbreak years, the mean annual hyena mortality rate was 0.088, and annual population growth was relatively high (13.6%). During the outbreak, mortality increased by 78% to a rate of 0.156, resulting in an annual population decline of 4.3%. After the outbreak, population size increased moderately (5.1%) during the first three post-outbreak years before resuming a growth similar to pre-outbreak levels (13.9%). We found no evidence that these demographic changes were driven by density dependence or other ecological factors. 4. Most hyenas showed signs of infection when prey abundance in their territory was low. During the outbreak, mortality increased among adult males and yearlings, but not among adult females - the socially dominant group members. These results suggest that infection and mortality were modulated by factors linked to low social status and poor nutrition. During the outbreak, we estimated R(0) for the bacterium to be 2.7, indicating relatively fast transmission. 5. Our results suggest that the short-term 'top-down' impact of S. equi ruminatorum during the outbreak was driven by 'bottom-up' effects on nutritionally disadvantaged age-sex classes, whereas the longer-term post-outbreak reduction in population growth was caused by poor survival of juveniles during the outbreak and subsequent poor recruitment of breeding females. These results suggest synergistic effects of 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' processes on host population dynamics.

Unintended consequences of conservation actions: managing disease in complex ecosystems

Infectious diseases are increasingly recognised to be a major threat to biodiversity. Disease management tools such as control of animal movements and vaccination can be used to mitigate the impact and spread of diseases in targeted species. They can reduce the risk of epidemics and in turn the risks of population decline and extinction. However, all species are embedded in communities and interactions between species can be complex, hence increasing the chance of survival of one species can have repercussions on the whole community structure. In this study, we use an example from the Serengeti ecosystem in Tanzania to explore how a vaccination campaign against Canine Distemper Virus (CDV) targeted at conserving the African lion (Panthera leo), could affect the viability of a coexisting threatened species, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus). Assuming that CDV plays a role in lion regulation, our results suggest that a vaccination programme, if successful, risks destabilising the simple two-species system considered, as simulations show that vaccination interventions could almost double the probability of extinction of an isolated cheetah population over the next 60 years. This work uses a simple example to illustrate how predictive modelling can be a useful tool in examining the consequence of vaccination interventions on non-target species. It also highlights the importance of carefully considering linkages between human-intervention, species viability and community structure when planning species-based conservation actions.

Existence, multiplicity and stability of endemic states for an age-structured S-I epidemic model

We study an S-I type epidemic model in an age-structured population, with mortality due to the disease. A threshold quantity is found that controls the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and guarantees the existence of an endemic equilibrium. We obtain conditions on the age-dependence of the susceptibility to infection that imply the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium. An example with two endemic equilibria is shown. Finally, we analyse numerically how the stability of the endemic equilibrium is affected by the extra-mortality and by the possible periodicities induced by the demographic age-structure.

Susceptibility of carnivore hosts to strains of canine distemper virus from distinct genetic lineages

Using the complete haemagglutinin (HA) gene and partial phosphoprotein (P) gene we investigated the genotype of canine distemper virus (CDV) strains recovered from two wildlife species in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated significant differences between the strains from raccoons Procyon lotor (family Procyonidae) obtained in 2007 and strains from red foxes Vulpes vulpes (family Canidae) obtained in 2008. The raccoon strains belonged to the CDV European wildlife lineage whereas the red fox strains belonged to the CDV Europe lineage. We combined our genetic sequence data with published data from 138 CDV stains worldwide to investigate the proposed importance of amino acid substitutions in the SLAM binding region of the CDV HA protein at position 530 (G/E to R/D/N) and 549 (Y to H) to the spread of domestic dog-adapted CDV strains to other carnivores. We found no evidence that amino acid 530 was strongly affected by host species. Rather, site 530 was conserved within CDV lineages, regardless of host species. Contrary to expectation, strains from non-dog hosts did not exhibit a bias towards the predicted substitution Y549H. Wild canid hosts were more frequently infected by strains with 549Y, a pattern similar to domestic dogs. Non-canid strains showed no significant bias towards either H or Y at site 549, although there was a trend towards 549H. Significant differences between the prevalence of 549Y and 549H in wild canid strains and non-canid strains suggests a degree of virus adaptation to these categories of host.

Multiplex Amplification Refractory Mutation System Polymerase Chain Reaction (ARMS-PCR) for diagnosis of natural infection with canine distemper virus

BACKGROUND

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is present worldwide and produces a lethal systemic infection of wild and domestic Canidae. Pre-existing antibodies acquired from vaccination or previous CDV infection might interfere the interpretation of a serologic diagnosis method. In addition, due to the high similarity of nucleic acid sequences between wild-type CDV and the new vaccine strain, current PCR derived methods cannot be applied for the definite confirmation of CD infection. Hence, it is worthy of developing a simple and rapid nucleotide-based assay for differentiation of wild-type CDV which is a cause of disease from attenuated CDVs after vaccination. High frequency variations have been found in the region spanning from the 3'-untranslated region (UTR) of the matrix (M) gene to the fusion (F) gene (designated M-F UTR) in a few CDV strains. To establish a differential diagnosis assay, an amplification refractory mutation analysis was established based on the highly variable region on M-F UTR and F regions.

RESULTS

Sequences of frequent polymorphisms were found scattered throughout the M-F UTR region; the identity of nucleic acid between local strains and vaccine strains ranged from 82.5% to 93.8%. A track of AAA residue located 35 nucleotides downstream from F gene start codon highly conserved in three vaccine strains were replaced with TGC in the local strains; that severed as target sequences for deign of discrimination primers. The method established in the present study successfully differentiated seven Taiwanese CDV field isolates, all belonging to the Asia-1 lineage, from vaccine strains.

CONCLUSIONS

The method described herein would be useful for several clinical applications, such as confirmation of nature CDV infection, evaluation of vaccination status and verification of the circulating viral genotypes.

Emergence of infectious diseases: when hidden pathogens break out

Our understanding of disease emergence is largely limited by the assumption that disease emergence is the result of increased exposure to pathogenic agents. Pathogen exposure is thought to arise through an increase in the number of interactions between humans and their natural environment, changes in demography and mobility, or through genetic variation in the infectious agents which may alter virulence or ability to infect new host species. The study of new diseases (which are often revealed by unusually severe symptoms or atypical epidemiological patterns) applies the most effort to the research of new pathogens. Here, using examples, we discuss alternative but non-exclusive mechanisms that may either reveal the presence of long-term circulating pathogens or explain changes in their nosologic properties in relation to their pattern of circulation and infection conditions. A better understanding of the ecology of pathogenic organisms and their host populations should help to define more efficient health management strategies.

Distinguishing epidemic waves from disease spillover in a wildlife population

Serengeti lions frequently experience viral outbreaks. In 1994, one-third of Serengeti lions died from canine distemper virus (CDV). Based on the limited epidemiological data available from this period, it has been unclear whether the 1994 outbreak was propagated by lion-to-lion transmission alone or involved multiple introductions from other sympatric carnivore species. More broadly, we do not know whether contacts between lions allow any pathogen with a relatively short infectious period to percolate through the population (i.e. reach epidemic proportions). We built one of the most realistic contact network models for a wildlife population to date, based on detailed behavioural and movement data from a long-term lion study population. The model allowed us to identify previously unrecognized biases in the sparse data from the 1994 outbreak and develop methods for judiciously inferring disease dynamics from typical wildlife samples. Our analysis of the model in light of the 1994 outbreak data strongly suggest that, although lions are sufficiently well connected to sustain epidemics of CDV-like diseases, the 1994 epidemic was fuelled by multiple spillovers from other carnivore species, such as jackals and hyenas.