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Ullah KM, Oladosu GA, Crooks A. Evaluating the incentive for soil organic carbon sequestration from carinata production in the Southeast United States. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 348:119418. [PMID: 37871549 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2023] [Revised: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 10/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/25/2023]
Abstract
Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be increased by cultivating bioenergy crops to produce low-carbon fuels, improving soil quality and agricultural productivity. This study evaluates the incentives for farmers to sequester SOC by adopting a bioenergy crop, carinata. Two agricultural management scenarios - business as usual (BaU) and a climate-smart (no-till) practice - were simulated using an agent-based modeling approach to account for farmers' carinata adoption rates within their context of traditional crop rotations, the associated profitability, influences of neighboring farmers, as well as their individual attitudes. Using the state of Georgia, US, as a case study, the results show that farmers allocated 1056 × 103 acres (23.8%; 2.47 acres is equivalent to 1 ha) of farmlands by 2050 at a contract price of $6.5 per bushel of carinata seeds and with an incentive of $50 Mg-1CO2e SOC sequestered under the BaU scenario. In contrast, at the same contract price and SOC incentive rate, farmers allocated 1152 × 103 acres (25.9%) of land under the no-till scenario, while the SOC sequestration was 483.83 × 103 Mg CO2e, which is nearly four times the amount under the BaU scenario. Thus, this study demonstrated combinations of seed prices and SOC incentives that encourage farmers to adopt carinata with climate-smart practices to attain higher SOC sequestration benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kazi Masel Ullah
- Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, United States
| | - Gbadebo A Oladosu
- Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, United States.
| | - Andrew Crooks
- Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, United States
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2
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Abstract
The bioeconomy is the cornerstone of the EU’s policy for shifting economic and societal trends towards circularity and low carbon arrangements. Europe has several crops that can be used as raw materials for this purpose, however pressure on land which might displace other activities and industrial competition for cost efficient raw materials remains a challenge. Hence, ensuring good yielding capacity and examining the likelihood to produce more by exploiting low quality, unused land can present significant opportunities to increase sustainable, locally sourced supply and at the same time offer profitable solutions to both industry and the farmers. This paper estimates the production costs of fourteen crops (oil, sugar, starch and lignocellulosic) and analyses how their profitability can be influenced by yield increases and cultivation in low quality land. Results show that there are profitable options for all crops under current market prices and land types except for cases in countries where crop productivity is rather low to sustain farm incomes. The analysis confirms that Europe has plenty crop options as raw materials for bioeconomy. Decision makers however must ensure future research and policy support are oriented towards sustainable yield increases and accelerate rehabilitation of land that is unused and of low quality.
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Doelman JC, Stehfest E, van Vuuren DP, Tabeau A, Hof AF, Braakhekke MC, Gernaat DEHJ, van den Berg M, van Zeist WJ, Daioglou V, van Meijl H, Lucas PL. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:1576-1591. [PMID: 31655005 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2018] [Accepted: 10/01/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2 /year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan C Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Andrzej Tabeau
- Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Andries F Hof
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Maarten C Braakhekke
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - David E H J Gernaat
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | | | - Vassilis Daioglou
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Paul L Lucas
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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4
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Krause A, Pugh TAM, Bayer AD, Li W, Leung F, Bondeau A, Doelman JC, Humpenöder F, Anthoni P, Bodirsky BL, Ciais P, Müller C, Murray-Tortarolo G, Olin S, Popp A, Sitch S, Stehfest E, Arneth A. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:3025-3038. [PMID: 29569788 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2017] [Accepted: 01/23/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Anita D Bayer
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Wei Li
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Felix Leung
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Alberte Bondeau
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (Mediterranean Institute for Biodiversity and Ecology IMBE), Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | | | - Peter Anthoni
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | | | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Catedra CONACyT comisionado al Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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5
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Li S, Juhász-Horváth L, Pintér L, Rounsevell MDA, Harrison PA. Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 622-623:1611-1620. [PMID: 29054621 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2017] [Revised: 09/25/2017] [Accepted: 10/05/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sen Li
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
| | - Linda Juhász-Horváth
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nádor u. 9, Budapest 1051, Hungary
| | - László Pintér
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nádor u. 9, Budapest 1051, Hungary; International Institute for Sustainable Development, 325-111 Lombard Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0T4, Canada
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Library Avenue, Lancaster LA1 4AP, UK
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Li S, Juhász-Horváth L, Harrison PA, Pintér L, Rounsevell MDA. Relating farmer's perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behaviour in Hungary. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2017; 185:21-30. [PMID: 28029477 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.10.051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2016] [Revised: 08/10/2016] [Accepted: 10/24/2016] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Understanding how farmers perceive climate change risks and how this affects their willingness to adopt adaptation practices is critical for developing effective climate change response strategies for the agricultural sector. This study examines (i) the perceptual relationships between farmers' awareness of climate change phenomena, beliefs in climate change risks and actual adaptation behaviour, and (ii) how these relationships may be modified by farm-level antecedents related to human, social, financial capitals and farm characteristics. An extensive household survey was designed to investigate the current pattern of adaptation strategies and collect data on these perceptual variables and their potential antecedents from private landowners in Veszprém and Tolna counties, Hungary. Path analysis was used to explore the causal connections between variables. We found that belief in the risk of climate change was heightened by an increased awareness of directly observable climate change phenomena (i.e. water shortages and extreme weather events). The awareness of extreme weather events was a significant driver of adaptation behaviour. Farmers' actual adaptation behaviour was primarily driven by financial motives and managerial considerations (i.e. the aim of improving profit and product sales; gaining farm ownership and the amount of land managed; and, the existence of a successor), and stimulated by an innovative personality and the availability of information from socio-agricultural networks. These results enrich the empirical evidence in support of improving understanding of farmer decision-making processes, which is critical in developing well-targeted adaptation policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sen Li
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.
| | - Linda Juhász-Horváth
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nádor u. 9, Budapest, 1051, Hungary
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK; Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - László Pintér
- Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Nádor u. 9, Budapest, 1051, Hungary; International Institute for Sustainable Development, 325-111 Lombard Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0T4, Canada
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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Ranjitkar S, Sujakhu NM, Merz J, Kindt R, Xu J, Matin MA, Ali M, Zomer RJ. Suitability Analysis and Projected Climate Change Impact on Banana and Coffee Production Zones in Nepal. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0163916. [PMID: 27689354 PMCID: PMC5045210 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2016] [Accepted: 09/17/2016] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The Government of Nepal has identified opportunities in agricultural commercialization, responding to a growing internal demand and expansion of export markets to reduce the immense trade deficit. Several cash crops, including coffee and bananas, have been identified in the recently approved Agriculture Development Strategy. Both of these crops have encouraged smallholder farmers to convert their subsistence farming practices to more commercial cultivation. Identification of suitable agro-ecological zones and understanding climate-related issues are important for improved production and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Here, the suitability of coffee and banana crops is analyzed for different agro-ecological zones represented by Global Environmental Stratification (GEnS). Future shifts in these suitability zones are also predicted. Plantation sites in Nepal were geo-referenced and used as input in species distribution modelling. The multi-model ensemble model suggests that climate change will reduce the suitable growing area for coffee by about 72% across the selected emission scenarios from now to 2050. Impacts are low for banana growing, with a reduction in suitability by about 16% by 2050. Bananas show a lot of potential for playing an important role in Nepal as a sustainable crop in the context of climate change, as this study indicates that the amount of area suited to banana growing will grow by 40% by 2050. Based on our analysis we recommend possible new locations for coffee plantations and one method for mitigating climate change-related problems on existing plantations. These findings are expected to support planning and policy dialogue for mitigation and support better informed and scientifically based decision-making relating to these two crops.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sailesh Ranjitkar
- Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming 650201, China
- World Agroforestry Centre East and Central Asia, Kunming 650201, China
- * E-mail:
| | - Nani M. Sujakhu
- Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming 650201, China
| | - Juerg Merz
- HELVETAS Swiss Intercooperation, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal
| | - Roeland Kindt
- World Agroforestry Centre, United Nations Avenue, Gigiri, 30677, Nairobi, 00100, Kenya
| | - Jianchu Xu
- Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming 650201, China
- World Agroforestry Centre East and Central Asia, Kunming 650201, China
| | - Mir A. Matin
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal
| | - Mostafa Ali
- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal
| | - Robert J. Zomer
- Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Kunming 650201, China
- World Agroforestry Centre East and Central Asia, Kunming 650201, China
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Sharp BE, Miller SA. Potential for Integrating Diffusion of Innovation Principles into Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2016; 50:2771-2781. [PMID: 26820700 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b03239] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Life cycle assessment (LCA) measures cradle-to-grave environmental impacts of a product. To assess impacts of an emerging technology, LCA should be coupled with additional methods that estimate how that technology might be deployed. The extent and manner that an emerging technology diffuses throughout a region shapes the magnitude and type of environmental impacts. Diffusion of innovation is an established field of research that analyzes the adoption of new innovations, and its principles can be used to construct scenario models that enhance LCA of emerging technologies. Integrating diffusion modeling techniques with an LCA of emerging technology can provide estimates for the extent of market penetration, the displacement of existing systems, and the rate of adoption. Two general perspectives of application are macro-level diffusion models that use a function of time to represent adoption, and microlevel diffusion models that simulate adoption through interactions of individuals. Incorporating diffusion of innovation concepts complement existing methods within LCA to inform proactive environmental management of emerging technologies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin E Sharp
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Clemson University , Martin Hall 220 Parkway Drive, Clemson, South Carolina 29634-0975, United States
| | - Shelie A Miller
- School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan , Dana Building 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1041, United States
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Brown C, Murray-Rust D, van Vliet J, Alam SJ, Verburg PH, Rounsevell MD. Experiments in globalisation, food security and land use decision making. PLoS One 2014; 9:e114213. [PMID: 25437010 PMCID: PMC4250087 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0114213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2014] [Accepted: 10/31/2014] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The globalisation of trade affects land use, food production and environments around the world. In principle, globalisation can maximise productivity and efficiency if competition prompts specialisation on the basis of productive capacity. In reality, however, such specialisation is often constrained by practical or political barriers, including those intended to ensure national or regional food security. These are likely to produce globally sub-optimal distributions of land uses. Both outcomes are subject to the responses of individual land managers to economic and environmental stimuli, and these responses are known to be variable and often (economically) irrational. We investigate the consequences of stylised food security policies and globalisation of agricultural markets on land use patterns under a variety of modelled forms of land manager behaviour, including variation in production levels, tenacity, land use intensity and multi-functionality. We find that a system entirely dedicated to regional food security is inferior to an entirely globalised system in terms of overall production levels, but that several forms of behaviour limit the difference between the two, and that variations in land use intensity and functionality can substantially increase the provision of food and other ecosystem services in both cases. We also find emergent behaviour that results in the abandonment of productive land, the slowing of rates of land use change and the fragmentation or, conversely, concentration of land uses following changes in demand levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Calum Brown
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Dave Murray-Rust
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom
| | - Jasper van Vliet
- Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Shah Jamal Alam
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Mark D. Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom
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