Environmental stochasticity in dispersal areas can explain the "mysterious" disappearance of breeding populations

Stochastic control of ecological networks

The paper models the maintenance of ecological networks in forest environments, built from bioreserves, patches and corridors, when these grids are subject to random processes such as extreme natural events. It also outlines a management plan to support the optimized results. After presenting the random graph-theoretic framework, we apply the stochastic optimal control to the graph dynamics. Our results show that the preservation of the network architecture cannot be achieved, under stochastic control, over the entire duration. It can only be accomplished, at the cost of sacrificing the links between the patches, by increasing the usage of the control devices. This would have a negative effect on the species migration by causing congestion among the channels left at their disposal. The optimal scenario, in which the shadow price is at its lowest and all connections are well-preserved, occurs at half of the course, be it the only optimal stopping moment found on the stochastic optimal trajectories. In such a scenario, the optimal forestry management policy has to integrate agility, integrated response, and quicker response time.

Age of First Territory Settlement of Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos in a Variable Competitive Landscape

With life-history traits involving high survival, low reproductive output, years of natal dispersal and deferred maturity, the population ecology and behaviour of large raptors which occur at low densities can be difficult to study. The age at which large raptors first settle on a prospective breeding territory receives relatively little attention, but is a key metric in population modelling including, for example, projections of reintroduction projects. It can also be a barometer of the “health” of populations and the availability of breeding opportunities. The advancement of GPS-telemetry has proved invaluable in gaining insights into several aspects of large raptor ecology and behaviour. Age of first territory settlement (AFTS) is one such aspect. AFTS is important in modelling population trajectories and considering individuals’ lifetime reproductive success. We used an algorithm based on GPS-records from dispersing Golden Eagles tagged as nestlings in Scotland to estimate AFTS. While the lifespan of GPS-tags can bias against settlement dates of older birds, they can also potentially reveal settlement ages difficult or impossible to discern from other methods. We found a range of ages for AFTS, including those in their second calendar year; much younger than previously documented by other methods. Ground-truthing – when possible and if inevitably slightly delayed – confirmed territory occupation on field-based survey criteria. We found that eagles settled younger in vacant territories and when older in occupied existing territories. Birds’ sex had no effect on AFTS. Birds which dispersed earlier from their natal territory (indicative of “quality” from some previous research) had no association with AFTS. Our results indicate that within technological temporal limits GPS-data can provide for accurate and precise estimations of AFTS including early settlement not consistently or precisely recorded by other methods. Within our study’s variable competitive landscape we found that AFTS was associated with the availability of territorial opportunities but not with the timing of dispersal. These findings have consequences for studying and understanding large raptor population dynamics.

Using historical dip net data to infer absence of flatwoods salamanders in stochastic environments

Local extinction and undetected presence are two very different biological phenomena, but they can be challenging to differentiate. Stochastic environments hamper the development of standardized monitoring schemes for wildlife, and make it more challenging to plan and evaluate the success of conservation efforts. To avoid reintroductions of species at risk that could jeopardize extant populations, managers attempting translocation events require a higher level of confidence that a failure to confirm presence represents a true absence. For many pond breeding amphibians, monitoring of the breeding population occurs indirectly through larval surveys. Larval development and successful recruitment only occurs after a sequence of appropriate environmental conditions, thus it is possible for a breeding population of adults to exist at a site but for detectability of the species to be functionally zero. We investigate how annual variability in detection influences long-term monitoring efforts of Reticulated Flatwoods Salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi) breeding in 29 wetlands in Florida. Using 8 years of historic dip net data, we simulate plausible monitoring scenarios that incorporate environmental stochasticity into estimates of detection probability. We found that annual variation in environmental conditions precluded a high degree of certainty in predicting site status for low-intensity monitoring schemes. Uncertainty was partly alleviated by increasing survey effort, but even at the highest level of sampling intensity assessed, multiple years of monitoring are required to confidently determine presence/absence at a site. Combined with assessments of habitat quality and landscape connectivity, our results can be used to identify sites suitable for reintroduction efforts. Our methodologies can be generally applied to increase the effectiveness of surveys for diverse organisms for which annual variability in detectability is known.

Demographic modeling to fine-tune conservation targets: importance of pre-adults for the decline of an endangered raptor

Large, long-lived species with slow life histories and protracted pre-breeding stages are particularly susceptible to declines and extinction, often for unknown causes. Here, we show how demographic modeling of a medium-sized raptor, the Red Kite Milvus milvus, can aid to refocus conservation research and attention on the most likely mechanisms driving its decline. Red Kites' survival and reproduction increased through three sequential stages for 1-2, 3-6, and 7-30 yr of age, mainly corresponding to individuals that are dispersing, attempting to gain a territory, and breeding. As typical of long-lived species, elasticities were highest for adult (≥7 yr old) survival, but this was high, with little scope for improvement. Instead, the declines were driven by an extremely low survival of pre-adults in their first years of life, which weakened the whole demographic system by nullifying the offspring contribution of adults and curtailing their replacement by recruits. For example, 27 pairs were necessary to generate a single prime age adult. Simulation of management scenarios suggested that the decline could be halted most parsimoniously by increasing pre-adult survival to the mean levels recorded for other areas, while only the synergistic, simultaneous improvement of breeding success, adult and pre-adult survival could generate a recovery. We propose three actions to attain such goals through selective supplementary feeding of both breeding and non-breeding individuals, and through mortality improvement by GPS remote-sensing devices employed as surveillance monitoring tools. Our results show how improving demographic models by using real, local vital rates rather than "best guess" vital rates can dramatically improve model realism by refocusing attention on the actual stages and mortality causes in need of manipulation, thus building precious time and resources for conservation management. These results also highlight the frequent key role of pre-adult survival for the management of long-lived species, coherent with the idea of demographic systems as integrated chains only as strong as their weakest link.

Asymmetric competition and floater dynamics

In territorial species, nonterritorial floaters may be critical to population dynamics. One theoretical framework, based on the assumption that floating is a strategic decision to forego reproduction, predicts that selection maintains an abundant floater population even if low-quality territories are available. However, existing models make two critical assumptions: all individuals have equal competitive ability, and every individual in a population has access to every available territory. We assess the consequences of relaxing these assumptions in a model of asymmetric competition with a trade-off between investment in competitiveness and reproductive success. Our results demonstrate that selection for greater competitiveness eliminates floater production unless the outcome of territorial contests has a strong stochastic component. Next, we suppose individuals can compete for territories only within a fixed neighborhood. If this constraint is sufficiently strong, our model predicts that a population will produce floaters. Finally, we show that our model makes novel predictions regarding the maintenance of trait variation and the relationship between this variation and the distribution of competitors among unequal territories.

Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change

Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential.

Understanding how life cycles of vectors respond to climatic factors is important to predict potential shifts in vector-borne disease risk in the coming decades. Here the authors develop a mechanistic phenological model for the invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti and apply it to project shifts under climate change scenarios.

The role of age of first breeding in modeling raptor reintroductions

The present biodiversity crisis has led to an increasing number of reintroduction programs, and this conservation method is likely to be increasingly used in the future, especially in the face of climate change. Many fundamental questions in population ecology are focused on the mechanisms through which populations escape extinction.Population viability analysis (PVA) is the most common procedure for analyzing extinction risk. In the use of PVA to model the trajectories of reintroduced populations, demographic values are sometimes taken from other existing wild populations or even from individuals in captivity.Density dependence in productivity is usually considered in viability models, but density-dependent variation in age of first breeding is usually ignored. Nevertheless, age of first breeding has a buffering effect on population fluctuations and in consequence on population persistence.We simulated the viability of Spanish Imperial Eagle (Aquila adalberti) and Osprey (Pandion haliaetus) populations using data from established and reintroduced populations in southern Spain.Our results show that reduction in the age of first breeding is critical in the success of reintroductions of such long-lived birds. Additionally, increases in productivity allow populations to growth at maximum rate. However, without considering variation in age of breeding, and the associated increasing overall productivity, reintroduced populations seem nonviable.To ignore density dependence in age of breeding in PVA means that we are seriously limiting the potential of the model population to respond to fluctuations in density, thereby reducing its resilience and viability. Variation in age of first breeding is an important factor that must be considered and included in any simulation model involving long-lived birds with deferred maturity.

Simulations reveal the power and peril of artificial breeding sites for monitoring and managing animals

Despite common use, the efficacy of artificial breeding sites (e.g., nest boxes, bat houses, artificial burrows) as tools for monitoring and managing animals depends on the demography of target populations and availability of natural sites. Yet, the conditions enabling artificial breeding sites to be useful or informative have yet to be articulated. We use a stochastic simulation model to determine situations where artificial breeding sites are either useful or disadvantageous for monitoring and managing animals. Artificial breeding sites are a convenient tool for monitoring animals and therefore occupancy of artificial breeding sites is often used as an index of population levels. However, systematic changes in availability of sites that are not monitored might induce trends in occupancy of monitored sites, a situation rarely considered by monitoring programs. We therefore examine how systematic changes in unmonitored sites could bias inference from trends in the occupancy of monitored sites. Our model also allows us to examine effects on population levels if artificial breeding sites either increase or decrease population vital rates (survival and fecundity). We demonstrate that trends in occupancy of monitored sites are misleading if the number of unmonitored sites changes over time. Further, breeding site fidelity can cause an initial lag in occupancy of newly installed sites that could be misinterpreted as an increasing population, even when the population has been continuously declining. Importantly, provisioning of artificial breeding sites only benefits populations if breeding sites are limiting or if artificial sites increase vital rates. There are many situations where installation of artificial breeding sites, and their use in monitoring, can have unintended consequences. Managers should therefore not assume that provision of artificial breeding sites will necessarily benefit populations. Further, trends in occupancy of artificial breeding sites should be interpreted in light of potential changes in the availability of unmonitored sites and the potential of lags in occupancy owing to site fidelity.

Modelling effects of nonbreeders on population growth estimates

Adult individuals that do not breed in a given year occur in a wide range of natural populations. However, such nonbreeders are often ignored in theoretical and empirical population studies, limiting our knowledge of how nonbreeders affect realized and estimated population dynamics and potentially impeding projection of deterministic and stochastic population growth rates. We present and analyse a general modelling framework for systems where breeders and nonbreeders differ in key demographic rates, incorporating different forms of nonbreeding, different life histories and frequency-dependent effects of nonbreeders on demographic rates of breeders. Comparisons of estimates of deterministic population growth rate, λ, and demographic variance, σd2, from models with and without distinct nonbreeder classes show that models that do not explicitly incorporate nonbreeders give upwardly biased estimates of σd2, particularly when the equilibrium ratio of nonbreeders to breeders, Nnb∗/Nb∗, is high. Estimates of λ from empirical observations of breeders only are substantially inflated when individuals frequently re-enter the breeding population after periods of nonbreeding. Sensitivity analyses of diverse parameterizations of our model framework, with and without negative frequency-dependent effects of nonbreeders on breeder demographic rates, show how changes in demographic rates of breeders vs. nonbreeders differentially affect λ. In particular, λ is most sensitive to nonbreeder parameters in long-lived species, when Nnb∗/Nb∗>0, and when individuals are unlikely to breed at several consecutive time steps. Our results demonstrate that failing to account for nonbreeders in population studies can obscure low population growth rates that should cause management concern. Quantifying the size and demography of the nonbreeding section of populations and modelling appropriate demographic structuring is therefore essential to evaluate nonbreeders' influence on deterministic and stochastic population dynamics.

Differential range use between age classes of southern African Bearded Vultures Gypaetus barbatus

Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus movements were investigated in southern Africa to determine whether an individual's age, sex or breeding status influenced its ranging behaviour and to provide the information required to guide conservation activities. Data from satellite transmitters fitted to 18 individuals of four age classes were used to determine range size and use. Because of the nature of the movements of marked individuals, these data could be used to determine the overall foraging range of the entire population, which was estimated to be 51 767 km². Although juvenile, immature and sub-adult birds used different parts of the overall range, their combined foraging range was 65% (33 636 km²) of the overall range. Average adult home ranges (286 km²) were only around 1% the size of the average foraging ranges of non-adults (10 540 –25 985 km²), with those of breeding adults being even smaller (95 km²). Home ranges of breeding adults did not vary in size between seasons but adults utilized their home range more intensively whilst breeding, moving greater distances during the incubation and chick hatching period. Range size and use increased as non-adults aged. Immatures and sub-adults had larger range sizes during winter, but range use of non-adults did not vary seasonally. Range size and use did not differ between the sexes in any of the age classes. Information on home range size and use enables specific areas within the species' range to be targeted for management planning, education and conservation action.

Misleading population estimates: biases and consistency of visual surveys and matrix modelling in the endangered bearded vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Experimental tests of endocrine function in breeding and nonbreeding raptors

Many long-lived avian species defer reproduction for several years, often displaying a "floating" behavior characterized by the lack of mates and exclusive territories. Understanding the proximate mechanisms regulating floating behavior is a relevant topic of research for physiologists, behavioral ecologists, and population biologists because a prolonged period of nonbreeding can negatively affect lifetime fitness and change population dynamics. Here we tested two hypotheses linking endocrine function to floating status: (a) floaters undergo a period of sexual immaturity characterized by lower gonadal function (hypothesis of sexual immaturity), and (b) floating status is socially imposed by dominant conspecifics and revealed by the adrenocortical response to stress (hypothesis of social subordination). The two hypotheses were tested in a population of free-living black kites Milvus migrans in Doñana National Park (southwest Spain), where breeders coexist with young floaters that defer reproduction for 3-7 yr. Hypophysial-gonadal function, estimated as androgen production in response to experimental challenge with gonadotropin-releasing hormone (c-GnRH-I), was similar in magnitude and timing between floating and breeding males. The same treatment was, however, unable to elicit any response in terms of increasing estradiol or total androgen levels in females regardless of their breeding status. Following experimental capture and restraint, the adrenocortical response to stress (estimated as circulating corticosterone levels) was higher in floating than in breeding males, while females showed the opposite pattern (i.e., lower response to stress in young floaters compared with breeders). Contrary to the hypothesis of sexual immaturity, our results suggest that floating males are physiologically capable of reproducing. The reported differences in adrenocortical function support the idea that floaters are socially subordinate to breeders, and corticosterone responses reflect the sex-specific roles during competition in socially monogamous species.

When conservation management becomes contraindicated: impact of food supplementation on health of endangered wildlife

Understanding the conditions that force the implementation of management actions and their efficiency is crucial for conservation of endangered species. Wildlife managers are widely and increasingly using food supplementation for such species because the potentially immediate benefits may translate into rapid conservation improvements. Supplementary feeding can also pose risks eventually promoting undesired, unexpected, subtle, or indirect, and often unnoticed, effects that are generally poorly understood. For two decades, intensive food supplementation has been used in attempting to improve the breeding productivity of the Spanish Imperial Eagle, Aquila adalberti, one of the most endangered birds of prey in the world. Here, we examined the impact of this intensive management action on nestling health, including contamination, immunodepression, and acquisition of disease agents derived from supplementation techniques and provisioned food. Contrary to management expectations, we found that fed individuals were often inadvertently "medicated" with pharmaceuticals (antibiotics and antiparasitics) contained in supplementary food (domestic rabbits). Individuals fed with medicated rabbits showed a depressed immune system and a high prevalence and richness of pathogens compared with those with no or safe supplementary feeding using non-medicated wild rabbits. A higher presence of antibiotics (fluoroquinolones) was found in sick as opposed to healthy individuals among eaglets with supplementary feeding, which points directly toward a causal effect of these drugs in disease and other health impairments. This study represents a telling example of well-meaning management strategies not based on sound scientific evidence becoming a "contraindicated" action with detrimental repercussions undermining possible beneficial effects by increasing the impact of stochastic factors on extinction risk of endangered wildlife.

Predictors of floater status in a long-lived bird: a cross-sectional and longitudinal test of hypotheses

1. Few studies have been capable of monitoring the nonterritorial sector of a population because of the typically secretive behaviour of floating individuals, despite the existing consensus over the demographic importance of floating. Furthermore, there is almost no information on floating behaviour for migratory species. 2. The factors that determine whether an individual will be a floater or a territory owner have been framed into five, non-mutually exclusive hypotheses: (i) territory holders are morphologically superior to floaters (resource-holding potential hypothesis); (ii) age confers skills and fighting motivation which lead to social dominance and territory ownership (age hypothesis); (iii) occupancy time of a site determines asymmetries in its knowledge, familiarity and value for potential contenders (site-dominance hypothesis); (iv) contenders use an arbitrary rule to settle contests leading to pre-defined cut-off points for a biologically meaningful trait (e.g. age, body size) separating floaters from territory holders (arbitrary convention hypothesis); and (v) floaters set up a 'war of attrition' at arbitrarily chosen territories (arbitrary attrition hypothesis). 3. We tested these hypotheses using long-term data on a long-lived, migratory raptor, the black kite Milvus migrans Boddaert. 4. Floating status was best explained by the concerted action of mechanisms consistent with the age and site-dominance hypotheses. 5. In both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, acquisition of a territory was determined by a complex interaction between age and early arrival from migration, suggesting: (i) a progressive incorporation of early arriving individuals in the territorial contingent of the population, and (ii) the existence of an alternative restraint strategy of delayed territoriality mediated by long-term acquisition of social dominance. 6. Such results suggested that territory acquisition was mediated by the establishment of site dominance through pre-emption and, secondarily, despotism. In this population, age and arrival date aligned individuals along a demographic continuum ranging from successful breeders monopolizing high-quality resources to floaters with no resources, consistent with the notion of floating as an extreme form of breeding failure.

Floater dynamics can explain positive patterns of density-dependent fecundity in animal populations

After some 70 years of debate on density-dependent regulation of animal populations, there is still poor understanding of where spatial and temporal density dependence occurs. Clearly defining the portion of the population that shapes density-dependent patterns may help to solve some of the ambiguities that encircle density dependence and its patterns. In fact, individuals of the same species and population can show different dynamics and behaviors depending on their locations (e.g., breeding vs. dispersal areas). Considering this form of intrapopulation heterogeneity may improve our understanding of density dependence and population dynamics in general. We present the results of individual-based simulations on a metapopulation of the Spanish imperial eagle Aquila adalberti. Our results suggest that high rates of floater mortality within settlement areas can determine a shift in the classical relationship (from negative to positive) between the fecundity (i.e., fledglings per pair) and density (i.e., number of pairs) of the breeding population. Finally, we proved that different initial conditions affecting the breeder portion of the population can lead to the same values of fecundity. Our results can represent a starting point for new and more complex approaches studying the regulation of animal populations, where the forgotten and invisible component--the floater--is taken into account.

Food-limitation in a generalist predator

Investigating food-limitation in generalist predators is difficult, because they can switch to alternative prey, when one of their staple prey becomes scarce. Apart from data on the dynamics of the predator population, a robust study requires: (i) a documentation of the predator's entire prey base; and (ii) an experimental or natural situation, where profitable dietary shifts are impossible, because several preferred prey species decline simultaneously. Here, we provide a detailed description of how food-supply has limited a generalist avian top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. In our study area, populations of several principal goshawk prey species crashed simultaneously during 1975-2000, whereas other extrinsic factors remained essentially unchanged. The breeding and non-breeding segments of the local goshawk population declined markedly, associated with a significant increase in nest failures. Brood size of successful pairs remained unaffected by changes in prey availability. Breeding recruitment ceased at a time when potential replacement birds ('floaters') were still present, providing a rare empirical demonstration of an 'acceptance threshold' in raptor territory choice. To investigate how goshawk diet changed in response to varying food-supplies, we make novel use of an analytical tool from biodiversity research-'abundance-biomass-comparison curves' (ABC curves). With increasing levels of food-stress, the dominance of principal prey species in the diet decreased, and the number of small-bodied prey species increased, as did intra-guild predation. Our finding that breeder and non-breeder segments declined in concert is unexpected. Our results carry the management implication that, in food-limited raptor populations, externally induced breeder mortality can rapidly depress population size, as losses are no longer buffered when floaters reject breeding opportunities.