Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread

Misapplied management makes matters worse: Spatially explicit control leverages biotic interactions to slow invasion

A wide range of approaches has been used to manage the spread of invasive species, yet invaders continue to be a challenge to control. In some cases, management actions have no effect or may even inadvertently benefit the targeted invader. Here, we use the mid-20th century management of the Red Imported Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta, in the US as a motivating case study to explore the conditions under which such wasted management effort may occur. Introduced in approximately 1940, the fire ant spread widely through the southeast US and became a problematic pest. Historically, fire ants were managed with broad-spectrum pesticides; unfortunately, these efforts were largely unsuccessful. One hypothesis suggests that, by also killing native ants, mass pesticide application reduced competitive burdens thereby enabling fire ants to invade more quickly than they would in the absence of management. We use a mechanistic competition model to demonstrate the landscape-level effects of such management. We explicitly model the extent and location of pesticide applications, showing that the same pesticide application can have a positive, neutral, or negative effect on the progress of an invasion, depending on where it is applied on the landscape with respect to the invasion front. When designing management, the target species is often considered alone; however, this work suggests that leveraging existing biotic interactions, specifically competition with native species, can increase the efficacy of management. Our model not only highlights the potential unintended consequences of ignoring biotic interactions, but also provides a framework for developing spatially explicit management strategies that take advantage of these biotic interactions to work smarter, not harder.

Assessment of Habitat Selection by Invasive Plants and Conditions with the Best Performance of Invasiveness Traits

Habitat selection is one of the fundamental concepts in ecology and means that each organism should choose the habitat that will maximize its success. Invaders may be an underestimated object in research on habitat selection. Invasive plants experience enormous propagule pressure and bear the costs of spreading in disturbed anthropogenic habitats. It means that they do not necessarily achieve maximum invasiveness traits in such habitats, which they selected to colonize. This study aimed to assess habitats where invaders are likely to occur from the set of all available ones in the landscape and the habitats with the best performed traits of invaders. The research was conducted on 52 and 112 plots in 2019 and 2021, respectively, in South-Eastern Poland, and the invasive plants were Caucasian hogweeds Heracleum sp. In the first year, the circle plots had a 50 m radius and were to measure habitat areas and traits of hogweeds (height, number of individuals in the plot, cover, and number of flowering specimens). Detrimental correspondence analysis and linear mixed model investigated that hogweeds achieved the best performance reflected by traits in continuous habitats—meadows and forests. In the second year, the plots to measure habitats had a 100 m radius. The reference plots were far from the invasion exposure, and the paired control vs. Heracleum ones had the same habitats with the potential to be invaded. The generalized linear mixed model showed that the probability of the hogweeds occurrence was higher when the habitat was overgrowing with a simultaneous decrease in open areas and in the increasing ruderal area with a decrease in bushes. The impact of the invader’s habitat on the invasion performance depended on the purpose of habitat selection. When invaders spread and increased invasive extent or appeared in habitat edges, they did not reach the highest traits, the best performing in continuous habitats. The specificity of habitat selection of invaders is another aspect that distinguishes invasion science from classic ecology.

Assessing drivers of localized invasive spread to inform large-scale management of a highly damaging insect pest

Studies of biological invasions at the macroscale or across multiple scales can provide important insights for management, particularly when localized information about invasion dynamics or environmental contexts is unavailable. In this study, we performed a macroscale analysis of the roles of invasion drivers on the local scale dynamics of a high-profile pest, Lymantria dispar dispar L., with the purpose of improving the prioritization of vulnerable areas for treatment. Specifically, we assessed the relative effects of various anthropogenic and environmental variables on the establishment rate of 8010 quadrats at a localized scale (5 × 5 km) across the entire L. dispar transition zone (the area encompassing the leading population edge, currently from Minnesota to North Carolina). We calculated the number of years from first detection of L. dispar in a quadrat to the year when probability of establishment of L. dispar was greater than 99% (i.e., waiting time to establishment after first detection). To assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic variables on each quadrat's waiting time to establishment, we performed linear mixed-effects regression models for the full transition zone and three subregions within the zone. Seasonal temperatures were found to be the primary drivers of local establishment rates. Winter temperatures had the strongest effects, especially in the northern parts of the transition zone. Furthermore, the effects of some factors on waiting times to establishment varied across subregions. Our findings contribute to identifying especially vulnerable areas to further L. dispar spread and informing region-specific criteria by invasion managers for the prioritization of areas for treatment.

An interaction Neyman-Scott point process model for coronavirus disease-19

With rapid transmission, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to over three million deaths worldwide, posing significant societal challenges. Understanding the spatial patterns of patient visits and detecting local cluster centers are crucial to controlling disease outbreaks. We analyze COVID-19 contact tracing data collected from Seoul, which provide a unique opportunity to understand the mechanism of patient visit occurrence. Analyzing contact tracing data is challenging because patient visits show strong clustering patterns, while cluster centers may have complex interaction behavior. Cluster centers attract each other at mid-range distances because other cluster centers are likely to appear in nearby regions. At the same time, they repel each other at too small distances to avoid merging. To account for such behaviors, we develop a novel interaction Neyman-Scott process that regards the observed patient visit events as offsprings generated from a parent cluster center. Inference for such models is challenging since the likelihood involves intractable normalizing functions. To address this issue, we embed an auxiliary variable algorithm into our Markov chain Monte Carlo. We fit our model to several simulated and real data examples under different outbreak scenarios and show that our method can describe the spatial patterns of patient visits well. We also provide useful visualizations that can inform public health interventions for infectious diseases, such as social distancing.

Population Dynamics and Tree Damage of the Invasive Chestnut Gall Wasp, Dryocosmus kuriphilus, in Its Southernmost European Distributional Range

Simple Summary

Chestnut cultivation makes it possible to invigorate the economy of many rural areas in Europe. The chestnut gall wasp Dryocosmus kuriphilus is a serious invasive pest that causes severe damage to chestnut cultivation worldwide. Its rapid spread across Europe endangers the continuity of the entire chestnut industry. Despite this growing concern, scarce attention has been paid to the status of D. kuriphilus in its southernmost distributional range in continental Europe and limited knowledge on the factors modelling their populations is available. In this study, we assessed spatio-temporal patterns in the population dynamics, phenology and tree damage in southern Spain, and further evaluated the relationship between these variables and thermal trends. Strong variation in the population dynamics and flight phenology was found both among localities and over time, which was influenced by differences in thermal regimes. Similarly, tree damage evolved differently over time in each locality, thus suggesting that local conditions may determine significant differences in damage evolution. Our work contributes to a better understanding of this pest in countries throughout the Mediterranean basin and can be useful for further improvement of control and management strategies.

Abstract

The invasive chestnut gall wasp (CGW), Dryocosmus kuriphilus, the worst pest of chestnut cultivation, has spread worryingly throughout Europe in less than 20 years. Despite the great concern around this pest, little is known about the status in its southernmost distribution in continental Europe. We assessed spatio-temporal patterns in the population dynamics, phenology and tree damage caused by CGW in southern Spain. Likewise, the relationship between these variables and thermal trends was evaluated. We found strong variation in the population dynamics and flight phenology among localities and over time, which were highly influenced by changes in thermal regimes. Specifically, warmer localities and vegetative periods promoted higher population densities, a partial increase in the survival of immature stages, and advanced flight activity. Moreover, tree damage evolved differently over time in each locality, which suggests that local conditions may determine differences in damage evolution. Our findings evidence that great spatio-temporal variability in the CGW populations takes place across invaded areas in its southernmost European distributional range. Although control mechanisms have been introduced, implementation of further control and management measures are critical to cope with this main threat for the chestnut industry and to prevent its spread to nearing chestnut-producing areas.

Spotlight on the invasion of a carabid beetle on an oceanic island over a 105-year period

The flightless beetle Merizodus soledadinus, native to the Falkland Islands and southern South America, was introduced to the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the early Twentieth Century. Using available literature data, in addition to collecting more than 2000 new survey (presence/absence) records of M. soledadinus over the 1991-2018 period, we confirmed the best estimate of the introduction date of M. soledadinus to the archipelago, and tracked subsequent changes in its abundance and geographical distribution. The range expansion of this flightless insect was initially slow, but has accelerated over the past 2 decades, in parallel with increased local abundance. Human activities may have facilitated further local colonization by M. soledadinus, which is now widespread in the eastern part of the archipelago. This predatory insect is a major threat to the native invertebrate fauna, in particular to the endemic wingless flies Anatalanta aptera and Calycopteryx moseleyi which can be locally eliminated by the beetle. Our distribution data also suggest an accelerating role of climate change in the range expansion of M. soledadinus, with populations now thriving in low altitude habitats. Considering that no control measures, let alone eradication, are practicable, it is essential to limit any further local range expansion of this aggressively invasive insect through human assistance. This study confirms the crucial importance of long term biosurveillance for the detection and monitoring of non-native species and the timely implementation of control measures.