What do we know about SARS-CoV-2 transmission? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the secondary attack rate and associated risk factors

SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a Berlin Kindergarten Environment: A Cross-Sectional Study, September 2021

SARS-CoV-2 serology may be helpful to retrospectively understand infection dynamics in specific settings including kindergartens. We assessed SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in individuals connected to kindergartens in Berlin, Germany in September 2021. Children, staff, and household members from 12 randomly selected kindergartens were interviewed on COVID-19 history and sociodemographic parameters. Blood samples were collected on filter paper. SARS-CoV-2 anti-S and anti-N antibodies were assessed using Roche Elecsys. We assessed seroprevalence and the proportion of so far unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infections. We included 277 participants, comprising 48 (17.3%) kindergarten children, 37 (13.4%) staff, and 192 (69.3%) household members. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were present in 65.0%, and 52.7% of all participants were vaccinated. Evidence of previous infection was observed in 16.7% of kindergarten children, 16.2% of staff, and 10.4% of household members. Undiagnosed infections were observed in 12.5%, 5.4%, and 3.6%, respectively. Preceding infections were associated with facemask neglect. In conclusion, two-thirds of our cohort were SARS-CoV-2 seroreactive in September 2021, largely as a result of vaccination in adults. Kindergarten children showed the highest proportion of non-vaccine-induced seropositivity and an increased proportion of previously unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infection. Silent infections in pre-school children need to be considered when interpreting SARS-CoV-2 infections in the kindergarten context.

Cholera and COVID-19 pandemic prevention in multiple hotspot districts of Uganda: vaccine coverage, adverse events following immunization and WASH conditions survey

BACKGROUND

Between March, 2020 and December, 2021 due to cholera and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemics, there were 1,534 cholera cases with 14 deaths and 136,065 COVID-19 cases with 3,285 deaths reported respectively in Uganda. This study investigated mass vaccination campaigns for the prevention of the two pandemics namely: oral cholera vaccine (OCV) and COVID-19 vaccine coverage; adverse events following immunization (AEFI); barriers and enablers for the vaccine uptake and assessed water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) conditions in the six cholera and COVID-19 hotspot districts of Uganda.

METHODS

A household survey was conducted between January and February, 2022 in the six cholera hotspot districts of Uganda which had recently conducted OCV mass vaccination campaigns and had ongoing COVID-19 mass vaccination campaigns. The survey randomly enrolled 900 households with 4,315 persons of whom 2,085 were above 18 years. Data were collected using a data entry application designed in KoBoToolbox and analysed using STATA version 14. Frequencies, percentages, odds ratios, means, confidence intervals and maps were generated and interpreted.

RESULTS

The OCV coverage for dose one and two were 85% (95% CI: 84.2-86.4) and 67% (95% CI: 65.6-68.4) respectively. Among the 4,315 OCV recipients, 2% reported mild AEFI, 0.16% reported moderate AEFI and none reported severe AEFI. The COVID-19 vaccination coverage for dose one and two were 69.8% (95% CI: 67.8-71.8) and 18.8% (95% CI: 17.1-20.5) respectively. Approximately, 23% (478/2,085) of COVID-19 vaccine recipient reported AEFI; most 94% were mild, 0.6% were moderate and 2 cases were severe. The commonest reason for missing COVID-19 vaccine was fear of the side effects. For most districts (5/6), sanitation (latrine/toilet) coverage were low at 7.4%-37.4%.

CONCLUSION

There is high OCV coverage but low COVID-19 vaccine and sanitation coverage with high number of moderate cases of AEFI recorded due to COVID-19 vaccines. The low COVID-19 vaccine coverage could indicate vaccine hesitancy for COVID-19 vaccines. Furthermore, incorporation of WASH conditions assessment in the OCV coverage surveys is recommended for similar settings to generate data for better planning. However, more studies are required on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.

Mortality and associated risk factors of COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients in Qatar: A nationwide cohort study

Context

Patients on maintenance dialysis are more susceptible to COVID-19 and its severe form. We studied the mortality and associated risks of COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients in the state of Qatar.

Methods

This was an observational, analytical, retrospective, nationwide study. We included all adult patients on maintenance dialysis therapy who tested positive for COVID-19 (PCR assay of the nasopharyngeal swab) during the period from February 1, 2020, to July 19, 2020. Our primary outcome was to study the mortality of COVID-19 in dialysis patients in Qatar and risk factors associated with it. Our secondary objectives were to study incidence and severity of COVID-19 in dialysis patients and comparing outcomes between hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients. Patient demographics and clinical features were collected from a national electronic medical record. Univariate Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate potential risk factors for mortality in our cohort.

Results

76 out of 1064 dialysis patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 (age 56±13.6, 56 hemodialysis and 20 peritoneal dialysis, 56 males). During the study period, 7.1% of all dialysis patients contracted COVID-19. Male dialysis patients had double the incidence of COVID-19 than females (9% versus 4.5% respectively; p<0.01). The most common symptoms on presentation were fever (57.9%), cough (56.6%), and shortness of breath (25%). Pneumonia was diagnosed in 72% of dialysis patients with COVID-19. High severity manifested as 25% of patients requiring admission to the intensive care unit, 18.4% had ARDS, 17.1% required mechanical ventilation, and 14.5% required inotropes. The mean length of hospital stay was 19.2 ± -12 days. Mortality due to COVID-19 among our dialysis cohort was 15%. Univariate Cox regression analysis for risk factors associated with COVID-19-related death in dialysis patients showed significant increases in risks with age (OR 1.077, CI 95%(1.018–1.139), p = 0.01), CHF and COPD (both same OR 8.974, CI 95% (1.039–77.5), p = 0.046), history of DVT (OR 5.762, CI 95% (1.227–27.057), p = 0.026), Atrial fibrillation (OR 7.285, CI 95%(2.029–26.150), p = 0.002), hypoxia (OR: 16.6; CI 95%(3.574–77.715), p = <0.001), ICU admission (HR30.8, CI 95% (3.9–241.2), p = 0.001), Mechanical ventilation (HR 50.07 CI 95% (6.4–391.2)), p<0.001) and using inotropes(HR 19.17, CI 95% (11.57–718.5), p<0.001). In a multivariate analysis, only ICU admission was found to be significantly associated with death [OR = 32.8 (3.5–305.4), p = 0.002)].

Conclusion

This is the first study to be conducted at a national level in Qatar exploring COVID-19 in a dialysis population. Dialysis patients had a high incidence of COVID-19 infection and related mortality compared to previous reports of the general population in the state of Qatar (7.1% versus 4% and 15% versus 0.15% respectively). We also observed a strong association between death related to COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients and admission to ICU.

High expression of SARS-CoV-2 entry factors in human conjunctival goblet cells

The angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor has been proved for SARS-CoV-2 cell entry after auxiliary cellular protease priming by transmembrane protease serine 2 (TMPRSS2), but the co-effect of this molecular mechanism was unknown. Here, single-cell sequencing was performed with human conjunctiva and the results have shown that ACE2 and TMPRSS2 were highly co-expressed in the goblet cells with genes involved in immunity process. This identification of conjunctival cell types which are permissive to virus entry would help to understand the process by which SARS-CoV-2 infection was established. These finding might be suggestive for COVID-19 control and protection.

The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

Background: ​ During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: ​ We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results:  Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: ​ If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.

The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

Background: ​ During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: ​ We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results:  Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: ​ If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.

Model-based projections for COVID-19 outbreak size and student-days lost to closure in Ontario childcare centres and primary schools

There is a pressing need for evidence-based scrutiny of plans to re-open childcare centres during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we developed an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a childcare centre and households. Scenarios varied the student-to-educator ratio (15:2, 8:2, 7:3), family clustering (siblings together versus random assignment) and time spent in class. We also evaluated a primary school setting (with student-educator ratios 30:1, 15:1 and 8:1), including cohorts that alternate weekly. In the childcare centre setting, grouping siblings significantly reduced outbreak size and student-days lost. We identify an intensification cascade specific to classroom outbreaks of respiratory viruses with presymptomatic infection. In both childcare and primary school settings, each doubling of class size from 8 to 15 to 30 more than doubled the outbreak size and student-days lost (increases by factors of 2-5, depending on the scenario. Proposals for childcare and primary school reopening could be enhanced for safety by switching to smaller class sizes and grouping siblings.

Modelling of hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests on admission to hospital from A&E: rapid cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019. At the time of writing (October 2020), the number of cases of COVID-19 had been approaching 38 million and more than 1 million deaths were attributable to it. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be highly transmissible and could rapidly spread in hospital wards.

OBJECTIVE

The work undertaken aimed to estimate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of viral detection point-of-care tests for detecting SARS-CoV-2 compared with laboratory-based tests. A further objective was to assess occupancy levels in hospital areas, such as waiting bays, before allocation to an appropriate bay.

PERSPECTIVE/SETTING

The perspective was that of the UK NHS in 2020. The setting was a hypothetical hospital with an accident and emergency department.

METHODS

An individual patient model was constructed that simulated the spread of disease and mortality within the hospital and recorded occupancy levels. Thirty-two strategies involving different hypothetical SARS-CoV-2 tests were modelled. Recently published desirable and acceptable target product profiles for SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests were modelled. Incremental analyses were undertaken using both incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net monetary benefits, and key patient outcomes, such as death and intensive care unit care, caused directly by COVID-19 were recorded.

RESULTS

A SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test with a desirable target product profile appears to have a relatively small number of infections, a low occupancy level within the waiting bays, and a high net monetary benefit. However, if hospital laboratory testing can produce results in 6 hours, then the benefits of point-of-care tests may be reduced. The acceptable target product profiles performed less well and had lower net monetary benefits than both a laboratory-based test with a 24-hour turnaround time and strategies using data from currently available SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests. The desirable and acceptable point-of-care test target product profiles had lower requirement for patients to be in waiting bays before being allocated to an appropriate bay than laboratory-based tests, which may be of high importance in some hospitals. Tests that appeared more cost-effective also had better patient outcomes.

LIMITATIONS

There is considerable uncertainty in the values for key parameters within the model, although calibration was undertaken in an attempt to mitigate this. The example hospital simulated will also not match those of decision-makers deciding on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of introducing SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests. Given these limitations, the results should be taken as indicative rather than definitive, particularly cost-effectiveness results when the relative cost per SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test is uncertain.

CONCLUSIONS

Should a SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care test with a desirable target product profile become available, this appears promising, particularly when the reduction on the requirements for waiting bays before allocation to a SARS-CoV-2-infected bay, or a non-SARS-CoV-2-infected bay, is considered. The results produced should be informative to decision-makers who can identify the results most pertinent to their specific circumstances.

FUTURE WORK

More accurate results could be obtained when there is more certainty on the diagnostic accuracy of, and the reduction in time to test result associated with, SARS-CoV-2 point-of-care tests, and on the impact of these tests on occupancy of waiting bays and isolation bays. These parameters are currently uncertain.

FUNDING

This report was commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme as project number 132154. This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 21. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Management strategies in a SEIR-type model of COVID 19 community spread

The 2019 Novel Corona virus infection (COVID 19) is an ongoing public health emergency of international focus. Significant gaps persist in our knowledge of COVID 19 epidemiology, transmission dynamics, investigation tools and management, despite (or possibly because of) the fact that the outbreak is an unprecedented global threat. On the positive side, enough is currently known about the epidemic process to permit the construction of mathematical predictive models. In our work, we adapt a traditional SEIR epidemic model to the specific dynamic compartments and epidemic parameters of COVID 19, as it spreads in an age-heterogeneous community. We analyze management strategies of the epidemic course (as they were implemented through lockdown and reopening procedures in many of the US states and countries worldwide); however, to more clearly illustrate ideas, we focus on the example of a small scale college town community, with the timeline of control measures introduced in the state of New York. We generate predictions, and assess the efficiency of these control measures (closures, mobility restrictions, social distancing), in a sustainability context.

Estimating the extent of asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Knowing the prevalence of true asymptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases is critical for designing mitigation measures against the pandemic. We aimed to synthesize all available research on asymptomatic cases and transmission rates.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 trials, and Europe PMC for primary studies on asymptomatic prevalence in which (1) the sample frame includes at-risk populations and (2) follow-up was sufficient to identify pre-symptomatic cases. Meta-analysis used fixed-effects and random-effects models. We assessed risk of bias by combination of questions adapted from risk of bias tools for prevalence and diagnostic accuracy studies.

RESULTS

We screened 2,454 articles and included 13 low risk-of-bias studies from seven countries that tested 21,708 at-risk people, of which 663 were positive and 111 asymptomatic. Diagnosis in all studies was confirmed using a real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction test. The asymptomatic proportion ranged from 4% to 41%. Meta-analysis (fixed effects) found that the proportion of asymptomatic cases was 17% (95% CI 14% to 20%) overall and higher in aged care (20%; 95% CI 14% to 27%) than in non-aged care (16%; 95% CI 13% to 20%). The relative risk (RR) of asymptomatic transmission was 42% lower than that for symptomatic transmission (combined RR 0.58; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.99, p = 0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

Our one-in-six estimate of the prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and asymptomatic transmission rates is lower than those of many highly publicized studies but still sufficient to warrant policy attention. Further robust epidemiological evidence is urgently needed, including in subpopulations such as children, to better understand how asymptomatic cases contribute to the pandemic.

Estimating the extent of asymptomatic COVID-19 and its potential for community transmission: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Knowing the prevalence of true asymptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases is critical for designing mitigation measures against the pandemic. We aimed to synthesize all available research on asymptomatic cases and transmission rates.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 trials, and Europe PMC for primary studies on asymptomatic prevalence in which (1) the sample frame includes at-risk populations and (2) follow-up was sufficient to identify pre-symptomatic cases. Meta-analysis used fixed-effects and random-effects models. We assessed risk of bias by combination of questions adapted from risk of bias tools for prevalence and diagnostic accuracy studies.

RESULTS

We screened 2,454 articles and included 13 low risk-of-bias studies from seven countries that tested 21,708 at-risk people, of which 663 were positive and 111 asymptomatic. Diagnosis in all studies was confirmed using a real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction test. The asymptomatic proportion ranged from 4% to 41%. Meta-analysis (fixed effects) found that the proportion of asymptomatic cases was 17% (95% CI 14% to 20%) overall and higher in aged care (20%; 95% CI 14% to 27%) than in non-aged care (16%; 95% CI 13% to 20%). The relative risk (RR) of asymptomatic transmission was 42% lower than that for symptomatic transmission (combined RR 0.58; 95% CI 0.34 to 0.99, p = 0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

Our one-in-six estimate of the prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and asymptomatic transmission rates is lower than those of many highly publicized studies but still sufficient to warrant policy attention. Further robust epidemiological evidence is urgently needed, including in subpopulations such as children, to better understand how asymptomatic cases contribute to the pandemic.

The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

Background: ​ During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods: ​ We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results:  Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions: ​ If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.