Majority rule dynamics in finite dimensions

Democratic Thwarting of Majority Rule in Opinion Dynamics: 1. Unavowed Prejudices Versus Contrarians

I study the conditions under which the democratic dynamics of a public debate drives a minority-to-majority transition. A landscape of the opinion dynamics is thus built using the Galam Majority Model (GMM) in a 3-dimensional parameter space for three different sizes, r=2,3,4, of local discussion groups. The related parameters are (p0,k,x), the respective proportions of initial agents supporting opinion A, unavowed tie prejudices breaking in favor of opinion A, and contrarians. Combining k and x yields unexpected and counterintuitive results. In most of the landscape the final outcome is predetermined, with a single-attractor dynamics, independent of the initial support for the competing opinions. Large domains of (k,x) values are found to lead an initial minority to turn into a majority democratically without any external influence. A new alternating regime is also unveiled in narrow ranges of extreme proportions of contrarians. The findings indicate that the expected democratic character of free opinion dynamics is indeed rarely satisfied. The actual values of (k,x) are found to be instrumental to predetermining the final winning opinion independently of p0. Therefore, the conflicting challenge for the predetermined opinion to lose is to modify these values appropriately to become the winner. However, developing a model which could help in manipulating public opinion raises ethical questions. This issue is discussed in the Conclusions.

Three-Stage Cascade Information Attenuation for Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

In social network analysis, entropy quantifies the uncertainty or diversity of opinions, reflecting the complexity of opinion dynamics. To enhance the understanding of how opinions evolve, this study introduces a novel approach to modeling opinion dynamics in social networks by incorporating three-stage cascade information attenuation. Traditional models have often neglected the influence of second- and third-order neighbors and the attenuation of information as it propagates through a network. To correct this oversight, we redefine the interaction weights between individuals, taking into account the distance of opining, bounded confidence, and information attenuation. We propose two models of opinion dynamics using a three-stage cascade mechanism for information transmission, designed for environments with either a single or two subgroups of opinion leaders. These models capture the shifts in opinion distribution and entropy as information propagates and attenuates through the network. Through simulation experiments, we examine the ingredients influencing opinion dynamics. The results demonstrate that an increased presence of opinion leaders, coupled with a higher level of trust from their followers, significantly amplifies their influence. Furthermore, comparative experiments highlight the advantages of our proposed models, including rapid convergence, effective leadership influence, and robustness across different network structures.

Opinion inertia and coarsening in the persistent voter model

We consider the persistent voter model (PVM), a variant of the voter model (VM) that includes transient, dynamically induced zealots. Due to peer reinforcement, the internal confidence η_{i} of a normal voter increases in steps of size Δη. Once it surpasses a given threshold, it becomes a zealot. Its opinion remains frozen until enough interactions with the opposing opinion occur, resetting its confidence. No longer a zealot, the regular voter may change opinion once again. This mechanism of opinion inertia, though simplified, is responsible for an effective surface tension, and the PVM exhibits a crossover from a fluctuation-driven dynamics, as in the VM, to a curvature-driven one, akin to the Ising model at low temperature. The average time τ to attain consensus is nonmonotonic with respect to Δη and reaches a minimum at Δη_{min}. In this paper we elucidate the mechanisms that accelerate the system towards consensus close to Δη_{min}. Near the crossover at Δη_{min}, the intermediate region around the domains where the regular voters accumulate (the active region, AR) is large. The surface tension, albeit small, is sufficient to maintain the shape and reduce the domain fragmentation. The large size of the AR in the region of Δη_{min} has two important effects that accelerate the dynamics. First, it dislodges the zealots within the bulk of the domains. Secondly, it maximally suppresses the formation of slowly evolving stripes typical in Ising-like models. This suggests the importance of understanding the role of the AR, where opinion changes are facilitated, and the interplay between regular voters and zealots in disrupting polarized states.

Composition of the Influence Group in the q-Voter Model and Its Impact on the Dynamics of Opinions

Despite ample research devoted to the non-linear q-voter model and its extensions, little or no attention has been paid to the relationship between the composition of the influence group and the resulting dynamics of opinions. In this paper, we investigate two variants of the q-voter model with independence. Following the original q-voter model, in the first one, among the q members of the influence group, each given agent can be selected more than once. In the other variant, the repetitions of agents are explicitly forbidden. The models are analyzed by means of Monte Carlo simulations and via analytical approximations. The impact of repetitions on the dynamics of the model for different parameter ranges is discussed.

Opinion cascade under perception bias in social networks

Opinion cascades, initiated by active opinions, offer a valuable avenue for exploring the dynamics of consensus and disagreement formation. Nevertheless, the impact of biased perceptions on opinion cascade, arising from the balance between global information and locally accessible information within network neighborhoods, whether intentionally or unintentionally, has received limited attention. In this study, we introduce a threshold model to simulate the opinion cascade process within social networks. Our findings reveal that consensus emerges only when the collective stubbornness of the population falls below a critical threshold. Additionally, as stubbornness decreases, we observe a higher prevalence of first-order and second-order phase transitions between consensus and disagreement. The emergence of disagreement can be attributed to the formation of echo chambers, which are tightly knit communities where agents' biased perceptions of active opinions are lower than their stubbornness, thus hindering the erosion of active opinions. This research establishes a valuable framework for investigating the relationship between perception bias and opinion formation, providing insights into addressing disagreement in the presence of biased information.

Opinion disparity in hypergraphs with community structure

The division of a social group into subgroups with opposing opinions, which we refer to as opinion disparity, is a prevalent phenomenon in society. This phenomenon has been modeled by including mechanisms such as opinion homophily, bounded confidence interactions, and social reinforcement mechanisms. In this paper, we study a complementary mechanism for the formation of opinion disparity based on higher-order interactions, i.e., simultaneous interactions between multiple agents. We present an extension of the planted partition model for uniform hypergraphs as a simple model of community structure, and we consider the hypergraph Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model on a hypergraph with two communities where the binary ideology can spread via links (pairwise interactions) and triangles (three-way interactions). We approximate this contagion process with a mean-field model and find that for strong enough community structure, the two communities can hold very different average opinions. We determine the regimes of structural and infectious parameters for which this opinion disparity can exist, and we find that the existence of these disparities is much more sensitive to the triangle community structure than to the link community structure. We show that the existence and type of opinion disparities are extremely sensitive to differences in the sizes of the two communities.

Opinion dynamics in social networks under competition: the role of influencing factors in consensus-reaching

The rapid development of information technology and social media has provided easy access to the vast data on individual preferences and social interactions. Despite a series of problems, such as privacy disclosure and data sensitivity, it cannot be denied that this access also provides beneficial opportunities and convenience for campaigns involving opinion control (e.g. marketing campaigns and political election). The profitability of opinion and the finiteness of individual attention have already spawned extensive competition for individual preferences on social networks. It is necessary to investigate opinion dynamics over social networks in a competitive environment. To this end, this paper develops a novel social network DeGroot model based on competition game (DGCG) to characterize opinion evolution in a competitive opinion dynamics. Social interactions based on trust relationships are captured in the DGCG model. From the model, we then obtain equilibrium results in a stable state of opinion evolution. We also analyse what role relevant factors play in the final consensus and competitive outcomes, including the resource ratio of both contestants, initial opinions, self-confidence and network structure. Theoretical analyses and numerical simulations show that these factors can significantly sway the consensus and even reverse competition outcomes.

Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game

One approach to understand people's efforts to reduce disease transmission, is to consider the effect of behaviour on case rates. In this paper we present a spatial infection-reducing game model of public behaviour, formally equivalent to a Hopfield neural network coupled to SIRS disease dynamics. Behavioural game parameters can be precisely calibrated to geographical time series of Covid-19 active case numbers, giving an implied spatial history of behaviour. This is used to investigate the effects of government intervention, quantify behaviour area by area, and measure the effect of wealth on behaviour. We also demonstrate how a delay in people's perception of risk levels can induce behavioural instability, and oscillations in infection rates.

Dynamics of majority rule on hypergraphs

A broad range of dynamical systems involve multibody interactions, or group interactions, which may not be encoded in traditional graphical structures. In this work, we focus on a canonical example from opinion dynamics, namely the majority rule, and we investigate the possibility to represent and analyze the system by means of hypergraphs. We explore the formation of consensus, and we restrict our attention to interaction groups of size 3 in order to simplify our analysis from a combinatorial perspective. We propose different types of hypergraph models, incorporating modular structure or mean-field heterogeneity, and we recast the dynamics in terms of Fokker-Planck equations, which allows us to predict the transient dynamics toward consensus. Numerical simulations show a very good agreement between the stochastic dynamics and theoretical predictions for large population sizes.

Divergence and consensus in majority rule

We investigate majority rule dynamics in a population with two classes of people, each with two opinion states ±1, and with tunable interactions between people in different classes. In an update, a randomly selected group adopts the majority opinion if all group members belong to the same class; if not, majority rule is applied with rate ε. Consensus is achieved in a time that scales logarithmically with population size if ε≥ε_{c}=1/9. For ε<ε_{c}, the population can get trapped in a polarized state, with one class preferring the +1 state and the other preferring -1. The time to escape this polarized state and reach consensus scales exponentially with population size.

Long route to consensus: Two-stage coarsening in a binary choice voting model

Formation of consensus, in binary yes-no type of voting, is a well-defined process. However, even in presence of clear incentives, the dynamics involved can be incredibly complex. Specifically, formations of large groups of similarly opinionated individuals could create a condition of "support-bubbles" or spontaneous polarization that renders consensus virtually unattainable (e.g., the question of the UK exiting the EU). There have been earlier attempts in capturing the dynamics of consensus formation in societies through simple Z_{2}-symmetric models hoping to capture the essential dynamics of average behavior of a large number of individuals in a statistical sense. However, in absence of external noise, they tend to reach a frozen state with fragmented and polarized states, i.e., two or more groups of similarly opinionated groups with frozen dynamics. Here we show in a kinetic exchange opinion model considered on L×L square lattices, that while such frozen states could be avoided, an exponentially slow approach to consensus is manifested. Specifically, the system could either reach consensus in a time that scales as L^{2} or a long-lived metastable state (termed a "domain-wall state") for which formation of consensus takes a time scaling as L^{3.6}. The latter behavior is comparable to some voterlike models with intermediate states studied previously. The late-time anomaly in the timescale is reflected in the persistence probability of the model. Finally, the interval of zero crossing of the average opinion, i.e., the time interval over which the average opinion does not change sign, is shown to follow a scale-free distribution, which is compared with that seen in the opinion surveys regarding Brexit and associated issues since the late 1970s. The issue of minority spreading is also addressed by calculating the exit probability.

Role of voting intention in public opinion polarization

We introduce and study a simple model for the dynamics of voting intention in a population of agents that have to choose between two candidates. The level of indecision of a given agent is modeled by its propensity to vote for one of the two alternatives, represented by a variable p∈[0,1]. When an agent i interacts with another agent j with propensity p_{j}, then i either increases its propensity p_{i} by h with probability P_{ij}=ωp_{i}+(1-ω)p_{j}, or decreases p_{i} by h with probability 1-P_{ij}, where h is a fixed step. We assume that the interactions form a complete graph, where each agent can interact with any other agent. We analyze the system by a rate equation approach and contrast the results with Monte Carlo simulations. We find that the dynamics of propensities depends on the weight ω that an agent assigns to its own propensity. When all the weight is assigned to the interacting partner (ω=0), agents' propensities are quickly driven to one of the extreme values p=0 or p=1, until an extremist absorbing consensus is achieved. However, for ω>0 the system first reaches a quasistationary state of symmetric polarization where the distribution of propensities has the shape of an inverted Gaussian with a minimum at the center p=1/2 and two maxima at the extreme values p=0,1, until the symmetry is broken and the system is driven to an extremist consensus. A linear stability analysis shows that the lifetime of the polarized state, estimated by the mean consensus time τ, diverges as τ∼(1-ω)^{-2}lnN when ω approaches 1, where N is the system size. Finally, a continuous approximation allows us to derive a transport equation whose convection term is compatible with a drift of particles from the center toward the extremes.

Dynamics of opinion formation under majority rules on complex social networks

We study opinion dynamics on complex social networks where each individual holding a binary opinion on a certain subject may change her/his mind to match the opinion of the majority. Two rules of interactions between individuals, termed as classic majority and influence majority rules, respectively, are imposed on the social networks. The former rule allows each individual to adopt an opinion following a simple majority of her/his immediate neighbors, while the latter one lets each individual calculate the influence of each opinion and choose to follow the more influential one. In this calculation, the influences of different opinions are counted as the sum of the influences of their respective opinion holders in neighborhood area, where the influence of each individual is conveniently estimated as the number of social connections s/he has. Our study reveals that in densely-connected social networks, all individuals tend to converge to having a single global consensus. In sparsely-connected networks, however, the systems may exhibit rich properties where coexistence of different opinions, and more interestingly, multiple steady states of coexistence can be observed. Further studies reveal that low-degree and high-degree nodes may play different roles in formulating the final steady state, including multi-steady states, of the systems under different opinion evolution rules. Such observations would help understand the complex dynamics of opinion evolution and coexistence in social systems.

A rumor spreading model based on information entropy

Rumor spreading can have a significant impact on people's lives, distorting scientific facts and influencing political opinions. With technologies that have democratized the production and reproduction of information, the rate at which misinformation can spread has increased significantly, leading many to describe contemporary times as a 'post-truth era'. Research into rumor spreading has primarily been based on either model of social and biological contagion, or upon models of opinion dynamics. Here we present a comprehensive model that is based on information entropy, which allows for the incorporation of considerations like the role of memory, conformity effects, differences in the subjective propensity to produce distortions, and variations in the degree of trust that people place in each other. Variations in the degree of trust are controlled by a confidence factor β, while the propensity to produce distortions is controlled by a conservation factor K. Simulations were performed using a Barabási-Albert (BA) scale-free network seeded with a single piece of information. The influence of β and K upon the temporal evolution of the system was subsequently analyzed regarding average information entropy, opinion fragmentation, and the range of rumor spread. These results can aid in decision-making to limit the spread of rumors.

Infrequent social interaction can accelerate the spread of a persuasive idea

We study the spread of a persuasive new idea through a population of continuous-time random walkers in one dimension. The idea spreads via social gatherings involving groups of nearby walkers who act according to a biased "majority rule": After each gathering, the group takes on the new idea if more than a critical fraction 1-ɛ/2<1/2 of them already hold it; otherwise they all reject it. The boundary of a domain where the new idea has taken hold expands as a traveling wave in the density of new idea holders. Our walkers move by Lévy motion, and we compute the wave velocity analytically as a function of the frequency of social gatherings and the exponent of the jump distribution. When this distribution is sufficiently heavy tailed, then, counter to intuition, the idea can propagate faster if social gatherings are held less frequently. When jumps are truncated, a critical gathering frequency can emerge which maximizes propagation velocity. We explore our model by simulation, confirming our analytical results.

Birdsong dialect patterns explained using magnetic domains

The songs and calls of many bird species, like human speech, form distinct regional dialects. We suggest that the process of dialect formation is analogous to the physical process of magnetic domain formation. We take the coastal breeding grounds of the Puget Sound white crowned sparrow as an example. Previous field studies suggest that birds of this species learn multiple songs early in life, and when establishing a territory for the first time, retain one of these dialects in order to match the majority of their neighbors. We introduce a simple lattice model of the process, showing that this matching behavior can produce single dialect domains provided the death rate of adult birds is sufficiently low. We relate death rate to thermodynamic temperature in magnetic materials, and calculate the critical death rate by analogy with the Ising model. Using parameters consistent with the known behavior of these birds we show that coastal dialect domain shapes may be explained by viewing them as low-temperature "stripe states."

Inflexibility and independence: Phase transitions in the majority-rule model

In this work we study opinion formation in a population participating in a public debate with two distinct choices. We consider three distinct mechanisms of social interactions and individuals' behavior: conformity, nonconformity, and inflexibility. The conformity is ruled by the majority-rule dynamics, whereas the nonconformity is introduced in the population as an independent behavior, implying the failure of attempted group influence. Finally, the inflexible agents are introduced in the population with a given density. These individuals present a singular behavior, in a way that their stubbornness makes them reluctant to change their opinions. We consider these effects separately and all together, with the aim to analyze the critical behavior of the system. We perform numerical simulations in some lattice structures and for distinct population sizes. Our results suggest that the different formulations of the model undergo order-disorder phase transitions in the same universality class as the Ising model. Some of our results are complemented by analytical calculations.

Effect of zealotry in high-dimensional opinion dynamics models

Most of the work on opinion dynamics models focuses on the case of two or three opinion types. We consider the case of an arbitrary number of opinions in the mean field case of the naming game model in which it is assumed the population is infinite and all individuals are neighbors. A particular challenge of the naming game model is that the number of variables, which corresponds to the number of possible sets of opinions, grows exponentially with the number of possible opinions. We present a method for generating mean field dynamical equations for the general case of k opinions. We calculate the steady states in two important special cases in arbitrarily high dimension: the case in which there exist zealots of only one type, and the case in which there are an equal number of zealots for each opinion. We show that in these special cases a phase transition occurs at critical values p(c) of the parameter p describing the fraction of zealots. In the former case, the critical value determines the threshold value beyond which it is not possible for the opinion with no zealots to be held by more nodes than the opinion with zealots, and this point remains fixed regardless of dimension. In the latter case, the critical point p(c) is the threshold value beyond which a stalemate between all k opinions is guaranteed, and we show that it decays precisely as a lognormal curve in k.

Collective opinion formation model under Bayesian updating and confirmation bias

We propose a collective opinion formation model with a so-called confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is a psychological effect with which, in the context of opinion formation, an individual in favor of an opinion is prone to misperceive new incoming information as supporting the current belief of the individual. Our model modifies a Bayesian decision-making model for single individuals [M. Rabin and J. L. Schrag, Q. J. Econ. 114, 37 (1999)] for the case of a well-mixed population of interacting individuals in the absence of the external input. We numerically simulate the model to show that all the agents eventually agree on one of the two opinions only when the confirmation bias is weak. Otherwise, the stochastic population dynamics ends up creating a disagreement configuration (also called polarization), particularly for large system sizes. A strong confirmation bias allows various final disagreement configurations with different fractions of the individuals in favor of the opposite opinions.

Opinion formation model for markets with a social temperature and fear

In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the two-dimensional voter model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. In this toy market model, social temperature represents nervousness of agents toward market imbalances representing speculative risk. We use the knowledge about the discontinuous generalized voter model phase transition to determine critical fixed points. The system exhibits metastable phases around these fixed points characterized by structured lattice states, with intermittent excursions away from the fixed points. The statistical mechanics of the model is characterized, and its relation to dynamics of opinion formation among investors in real markets is discussed.

Multistability with a metastable mixed state

Complex dynamical systems often show multiple metastable states. In macroevolution, such behavior is suggested by punctuated equilibrium and discrete geological epochs. In molecular biology, bistability is found in epigenetics and in the many mutually exclusive states that a human cell can take. Sociopolitical systems can be single-party regimes or a pluralism of balancing political fractions. To introduce multistability, we suggest a model system of D mutually exclusive microstates that battle for dominance in a large system. Assuming one common intermediate state, we obtain D+1 metastable macrostates for the system, one of which is a self-reinforced mixture of all D+1 microstates. Robustness of this metastable mixed state increases with diversity D.

Dynamics of majority rule with differential latencies

We investigate the dynamics of the majority-rule opinion formation model when voters experience differential latencies. With this extension, voters that just adopted an opinion go into a latent state during which they are excluded from the opinion formation process. The duration of the latent state depends on the opinion adopted by the voter. This leads to a bias toward consensus on the opinion that is associated with the shorter latency. We determine the exit probability and time to consensus for systems of N voters. Additionally, we derive an asymptotic characterization of the time to consensus by means of a continuum model.

Local interaction scale controls the existence of a nontrivial optimal critical mass in opinion spreading

We study a model of opinion formation where the collective decision of a group is said to happen if the fraction of agents having the most common opinion exceeds a threshold value, a critical mass. We find that there exists a unique nontrivial critical mass giving the most efficient convergence to consensus. In addition, we observe that for small critical masses, the characteristic time scale for the relaxation to consensus splits into two. The shorter time scale corresponds to a direct relaxation and the longer one can be explained by the existence of intermediate metastable states similar to those found in [P. Chen and S. Redner, Phys. Rev. E 71, 036101 (2005)]. This longer time scale is dependent on the precise condition for consensus-with a modification of the condition it can go away.

Effects of social diversity on the emergence of global consensus in opinion dynamics

We propose a variant of the voter model by introducing the social diversity in the evolution process. Each individual is assigned a weight that is proportional to the power of its degree, where the power exponent alpha is an adjustable parameter that controls the level of diversity among individuals in the network. At each time step, a pair of connected individuals, say i and j , are randomly selected to update their opinions. The probability p(i) of choosing is opinion as their common opinion is proportional to i s weight. We consider the scale-free topology and concentrate on the efficiency of reaching the final consensus, which is significant in characterizing the self-organized systems. Interestingly, it is found that there exists an optimal value of alpha, leading to the shortest consensus time. This phenomenon indicates that, although a strong influence of high-degree individuals is helpful for quick consensus achievement, over strong influence inhibits the convergence process. Other quantities, such as the probability of an individual's initial opinion becomes the final opinion as a function of degree, the evolution of the number of opinion clusters, as well as the relationship between average consensus time and the network size, are also studied. Our results are helpful for better understanding the role of degree heterogeneity of the individuals in the opinion dynamics.

Coevolutionary dynamics of opinions and networks: from diversity to uniformity

We investigate the coevolutionary dynamics of opinions and networks based upon majority-preference (MP) and minority-avoidance (MA) rules. Under MP, individuals adopt the majority opinion among their neighbors; while in MA individuals can break the link to one holding a minority and different opinion, and rewire either to neighbors of their neighbors with the same opinion or to a random one from the whole population except their nearest neighbors. We study opinion formation as a result of combination of these two competing rules, with a parameter tuning the balance between them. We find that the underlying network can be self-organized into connected communities with like-minded individuals belonging to the same group; thus a broad variety of opinions coexist. Diverse opinions disappear in a population in which all individuals share a uniform opinion, when the model parameter exceeds a critical value. Furthermore, we show that an increasing tendency to redirect to neighbors of neighbors is more likely to result in a consensus of opinion.

Effects of substrate network topologies on competition dynamics

We study a competition dynamics, based on the minority game, endowed with various substrate network structures. We observe the effects of the network topologies by investigating the volatility of the system and the structure of follower networks. The topology of substrate structures significantly influences the system efficiency represented by the volatility and such substrate networks are shown to amplify the herding effect and cause inefficiency in most cases. The follower networks emerging from the leadership structure show a power-law incoming degree distribution. This study shows the emergence of scale-free structures of leadership in the minority game and the effects of the interaction among players on the networked version of the game.

Dynamics of opinion formation in a small-world network

The dynamical process of opinion formation within a model using a local majority opinion updating rule is studied numerically in networks with the small-world geometrical property. The network is one in which shortcuts are added to randomly chosen pairs of nodes in an underlying regular lattice. The presence of a small number of shortcuts is found to shorten the time to reach a consensus significantly. The effects of having shortcuts in a lattice of fixed spatial dimension are shown to be analogous to that of increasing the spatial dimension in regular lattices. The shortening of the consensus time is shown to be related to the shortening of the mean shortest path as shortcuts are added. Results can also be translated into that of the dynamics of a spin system in a small-world network.