Effect of the interconnected network structure on the epidemic threshold

Epidemic dynamics in census-calibrated modular contact network

Network-based models are apt for understanding epidemic dynamics due to their inherent ability to model the heterogeneity of interactions in the contemporary world of intense human connectivity. We propose a framework to create a wire-frame that mimics the social contact network of the population in a geography by lacing it with demographic information. The framework results in a modular network with small-world topology that accommodates density variations and emulates human interactions in family, social, and work spaces. When loaded with suitable economic, social, and urban data shaping patterns of human connectance, the network emerges as a potent decision-making instrument for urban planners, demographers, and social scientists. We employ synthetic networks to experiment in a controlled environment and study the impact of zoning, density variations, and population mobility on the epidemic variables using a variant of the SEIR model. Our results reveal that these demographic factors have a characteristic influence on social contact patterns, manifesting as distinct epidemic dynamics. Subsequently, we present a real-world COVID-19 case study for three Indian states by creating corresponding surrogate social contact networks using available census data. The case study validates that the demography-laced modular contact network reduces errors in the estimates of epidemic variables.

Metapopulation epidemic models with a universal mobility pattern on interconnected networks

The global pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exemplifies the influence of human mobility on epidemic spreading. A framework called the movement-interaction-return (MIR) model is a model to study the impact of human mobility on epidemic spreading. In this paper, we investigate epidemic spreading in interconnected metapopulation networks. Specifically, we incorporate the human mobility pattern called the radiation model into the MIR model. As a result, the proposed model is more realistic in comparison to the original MIR model. We use the tensorial framework to develop Markovian equations that describe the dynamics of the proposed model on interconnected metapopulation networks. Then we derive the corresponding epidemic thresholds by converting tensors into matrices. Comprehensive numerical simulations confirm our analysis.

Mitigate SIR epidemic spreading via contact blocking in temporal networks

Progress has been made in how to suppress epidemic spreading on temporal networks via blocking all contacts of targeted nodes or node pairs. In this work, we develop contact blocking strategies that remove a fraction of contacts from a temporal (time evolving) human contact network to mitigate the spread of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic. We define the probability that a contact c(i, j, t) is removed as a function of a given centrality metric of the corresponding link l(i, j) in the aggregated network and the time t of the contact. The aggregated network captures the number of contacts between each node pair. A set of 12 link centrality metrics have been proposed and each centrality metric leads to a unique contact removal strategy. These strategies together with a baseline strategy (random removal) are evaluated in empirical contact networks via the average prevalence, the peak prevalence and the time to reach the peak prevalence. We find that the epidemic spreading can be mitigated the best when contacts between node pairs that have fewer contacts and early contacts are more likely to be removed. A strategy tends to perform better when the average number contacts removed from each node pair varies less. The aggregated pruned network resulted from the best contact removal strategy tends to have a large largest eigenvalue, a large modularity and probably a small largest connected component size.

Synchronizability of two-layer correlation networks

This study investigates the synchronizability of a typical type of two-layer correlation networks formed by two regular networks interconnected with two interlayer linking patterns, namely, positive correlation (PC) and negative correlation (NC). To analyze the network's stability, we consider the analytical expressions of the smallest non-zero and largest eigenvalues of the (weighted) Laplacian matrix as well as the linking strength and the network size for two linking patterns. According to the master stability function, the linking patterns, the linking strength, and the network size associated with two typical synchronized regions exhibit a profound influence on the synchronizability of the two-layer networks. The NC linking pattern displays better synchronizability than the PC linking pattern with the same set of parameters. Furthermore, for the two classical synchronized regions, the networks have optimal intralayer and interlayer linking strengths that maximize the synchronizability while minimizing the required cost. Finally, numerical results verify the validity of the theoretical analyses. The findings based on the representative two-layer correlation networks provide the basis for maximizing the synchronizability of general multiplex correlation networks.

Hierarchical effects facilitate spreading processes on synthetic and empirical multilayer networks

In this paper we consider the effects of corporate hierarchies on innovation spread across multilayer networks, modeled by an elaborated SIR framework. We show that the addition of management layers can significantly improve spreading processes on both random geometric graphs and empirical corporate networks. Additionally, we show that utilizing a more centralized working relationship network rather than a strict administrative network further increases overall innovation reach. In fact, this more centralized structure in conjunction with management layers is essential to both reaching a plurality of nodes and creating a stable adopted community in the long time horizon. Further, we show that the selection of seed nodes affects the final stability of the adopted community, and while the most influential nodes often produce the highest peak adoption, this is not always the case. In some circumstances, seeding nodes near but not in the highest positions in the graph produces larger peak adoption and more stable long-time adoption.

Traffic-driven epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

Recent progress on multiplex networks has provided a powerful way to abstract the diverse interaction of a network system with multiple layers. In this paper, we show that a multiplex structure can greatly affect the spread of an epidemic driven by traffic dynamics. One of the interesting findings is that the multiplex structure could suppress the outbreak of an epidemic, which is different from the typical finding of spread dynamics in multiplex networks. In particular, one layer with dense connections can attract more traffic flow and eventually suppress the epidemic outbreak in other layers. Therefore, the epidemic threshold will be larger than the minimal threshold of the layers. With a mean-field approximation, we provide explicit expressions for the epidemic threshold and for the onset of suppressing epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. We also provide the probability of obtaining a multiplex configuration that suppresses the epidemic spreading when the multiplex is composed of: (i) two Erdős-Rényi layers and (ii) two scale-free layers. Therefore, compared to the situation of an isolated network in which a disease may be able to propagate, a larger epidemic threshold can be found in multiplex structures.

An LSTM Model for Predicting Cross-Platform Bursts of Social Media Activity

Burst analysis and prediction is a fundamental problem in social network analysis, since user activities have been shown to have an intrinsically bursty nature. Bursts may also be a signal of topics that are of growing real-world interest. Since bursts can be caused by exogenous phenomena and are indicative of burgeoning popularity, leveraging cross platform social media data may be valuable for predicting bursts within a single social media platform. A Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) model is proposed in order to capture the temporal dependencies and associations based upon activity information. The data used to test the model was collected from Twitter, Github, and Reddit. Our results show that the LSTM based model is able to leverage the complex cross-platform dynamics to predict bursts. In situations where information gathering from platforms of concern is not possible the learned model can provide a prediction for whether bursts on another platform can be expected.

Misinformation spreading on correlated multiplex networks

The numerous expanding online social networks offer fast channels for misinformation spreading, which could have a serious impact on socioeconomic systems. Researchers across multiple areas have paid attention to this issue with a view of addressing it. However, no systematical theoretical study has been performed to date on observing misinformation spreading on correlated multiplex networks. In this study, we propose a multiplex network-based misinformation spreading model, considering the fact that each individual can obtain misinformation from multiple platforms. Subsequently, we develop a heterogeneous edge-based compartmental theory to comprehend the spreading dynamics of our proposed model. In addition, we establish an analytical method based on stability analysis to obtain the misinformation outbreak threshold. On the basis of these theories, we finally analyze the influence of different dynamical and structural parameters on the misinformation spreading dynamics. Results show that the misinformation outbreak size R(∞) grows continuously with the effective transmission probability β once β exceeds a certain value, that is, the outbreak threshold β_c. Large average degrees, strong degree heterogeneity, or positive interlayer correlation will reduce β_c, accelerating the outbreak of misinformation. Besides, increasing the degree heterogeneity or a more positive interlayer correlation will enlarge (reduce) R(∞) for small (large) values of β. Our systematic theoretical analysis results agree well with the numerical simulation results. Our proposed model and accurate theoretical analysis will serve as a useful framework to understand and predict the spreading dynamics of misinformation on multiplex networks and thereby pave the way to address this serious issue.

Hamiltonian dynamics of the SIS epidemic model with stochastic fluctuations

Empirical records of epidemics reveal that fluctuations are important factors for the spread and prevalence of infectious diseases. The exact manner in which fluctuations affect spreading dynamics remains poorly known. Recent analytical and numerical studies have demonstrated that improved differential equations for mean and variance of infected individuals reproduce certain regimes of the SIS epidemic model. Here, we show they form a dynamical system that follows Hamilton’s equations, which allow us to understand the role of fluctuations and their effects on epidemics. Our findings show the Hamiltonian is a constant of motion for large population sizes. For small populations, finite size effects break the temporal symmetry and induce a power-law decay of the Hamiltonian near the outbreak onset, with a parameter-free exponent. Away from the onset, the Hamiltonian decays exponentially according to a constant relaxation time, which we propose as a metric when fluctuations cannot be neglected.

Optimizing spreading dynamics in interconnected networks

Adding edges between layers of interconnected networks is an important way to optimize the spreading dynamics. While previous studies mostly focused on the case of adding a single edge, the theoretical optimal strategy for adding multiple edges still need to be studied. In this study, based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we investigate the problem of maximizing the stationary spreading prevalence in interconnected networks. For two isolated networks, we maximize the spreading prevalence near the critical point by choosing multiple interconnecting edges. We present a theoretical analysis based on the discrete-time Markov chain approach to derive the approximate optimal strategy. The optimal interlayer structure predicted by the strategy maximizes the spreading prevalence, meanwhile minimizing the spreading outbreak threshold for the interconnected network simultaneously. Numerical simulations on synthetic and real-world networks show that near the critical point, the proposed strategy gives better performance than connecting large degree nodes and randomly connecting.

SimNet: Similarity-based network embeddings with mean commute time

In this paper, we propose a new approach for learning node embeddings for weighted undirected networks. We perform a random walk on the network to extract the latent structural information and perform node embedding learning under a similarity-based framework. Unlike previous works, we apply a different criterion to capture the proximity information between nodes in a network, and use it for improved modeling of similarities between nodes. We show that the mean commute time (MCT) between two nodes, defined as the average time a random walker takes to reach a target node and return to the source, plays a crucial role in quantifying the actual degree of proximity between two nodes of the network. We then introduce a novel definition of a similarity matrix that is based on the pair-wise mean commute time captured, which enables us to adequately represent the connection of similar nodes. We utilize pseudoinverse of the Laplacian matrix of the graph for calculating such a proximity measure, capturing rich structural information out of the graph for learning more adequate node representations of a network. The results of different experiments on three real-world networks demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms existing related efforts in classification, clustering, visualization as well as link prediction tasks.

Information diffusion backbones in temporal networks

Progress has been made in understanding how temporal network features affect the percentage of nodes reached by an information diffusion process. In this work, we explore further: which node pairs are likely to contribute to the actual diffusion of information, i.e., appear in a diffusion trajectory? How is this likelihood related to the local temporal connection features of the node pair? Such deep understanding of the role of node pairs is crucial to tackle challenging optimization problems such as which kind of node pairs or temporal contacts should be stimulated in order to maximize the prevalence of information spreading. We start by using Susceptible-Infected (SI) model, in which an infected (information possessing) node could spread the information to a susceptible node with a given infection probability β whenever a contact happens between the two nodes, as the information diffusion process. We consider a large number of real-world temporal networks. First, we propose the construction of an information diffusion backbone GB(β) for a SI spreading process with an infection probability β on a temporal network. The backbone is a weighted network where the weight of each node pair indicates how likely the node pair appears in a diffusion trajectory starting from an arbitrary node. Second, we investigate the relation between the backbones with different infection probabilities on a temporal network. We find that the backbone topology obtained for low and high infection probabilities approach the backbone GB(β → 0) and GB(β = 1), respectively. The backbone GB(β → 0) equals the integrated weighted network, where the weight of a node pair counts the total number of contacts in between. Finally, we explore node pairs with what local connection features tend to appear in GB(β = 1), thus actually contribute to the global information diffusion. We discover that a local connection feature among many other features we proposed, could well identify the (high-weight) links in GB(β = 1). This local feature encodes the time that each contact occurs, pointing out the importance of temporal features in determining the role of node pairs in a dynamic process.

Structural transition in interdependent networks with regular interconnections

Networks are often made up of several layers that exhibit diverse degrees of interdependencies. An interdependent network consists of a set of graphs G that are interconnected through a weighted interconnection matrix B, where the weight of each intergraph link is a non-negative real number p. Various dynamical processes, such as synchronization, cascading failures in power grids, and diffusion processes, are described by the Laplacian matrix Q characterizing the whole system. For the case in which the multilayer graph is a multiplex, where the number of nodes in each layer is the same and the interconnection matrix B=pI, I being the identity matrix, it has been shown that there exists a structural transition at some critical coupling p^{*}. This transition is such that dynamical processes are separated into two regimes: if p>p^{*}, the network acts as a whole; whereas when p<p^{*}, the network operates as if the graphs encoding the layers were isolated. In this paper, we extend and generalize the structural transition threshold p^{*} to a regular interconnection matrix B (constant row and column sum). Specifically, we provide upper and lower bounds for the transition threshold p^{*} in interdependent networks with a regular interconnection matrix B and derive the exact transition threshold for special scenarios using the formalism of quotient graphs. Additionally, we discuss the physical meaning of the transition threshold p^{*} in terms of the minimum cut and show, through a counterexample, that the structural transition does not always exist. Our results are one step forward on the characterization of more realistic multilayer networks and might be relevant for systems that deviate from the topological constraints imposed by multiplex networks.

Social contagions on interconnected networks of heterogeneous populations

Recently, the dynamics of social contagions ranging from the adoption of a new product to the diffusion of a rumor have attracted more and more attention from researchers. However, the combined effects of individual's heterogenous adoption behavior and the interconnected structure on the social contagions processes have yet to be understood deeply. In this paper, we study theoretically and numerically the social contagions with heterogeneous adoption threshold in interconnected networks. We first develop a generalized edge-based compartmental approach to predict the evolution of social contagion dynamics on interconnected networks. Both the theoretical predictions and numerical results show that the growth of the final recovered fraction with the intralayer propagation rate displays double transitions. When increasing the initial adopted proportion or the adopted threshold, the first transition remains continuous within different dynamic parameters, but the second transition gradually vanishes. When decreasing the interlayer propagation rate, the change in the double transitions mentioned above is also observed. The heterogeneity of degree distribution does not affect the type of first transition, but increasing the heterogeneity of degree distribution results in the type change of the second transition from discontinuous to continuous. The consistency between the theoretical predictions and numerical results confirms the validity of our proposed analytical approach.

Multiple structural transitions in interacting networks

Many real-world systems can be modeled as interconnected multilayer networks, namely, a set of networks interacting with each other. Here, we present a perturbative approach to study the properties of a general class of interconnected networks as internetwork interactions are established. We reveal multiple structural transitions for the algebraic connectivity of such systems, between regimes in which each network layer keeps its independent identity or drives diffusive processes over the whole system, thus generalizing previous results reporting a single transition point. Furthermore, we show that, at first order in perturbation theory, the growth of the algebraic connectivity of each layer depends only on the degree configuration of the interaction network (projected on the respective Fiedler vector), and not on the actual interaction topology. Our findings can have important implications in the design of robust interconnected networked systems, particularly in the presence of network layers whose integrity is more crucial for the functioning of the entire system. We finally show results of perturbation theory applied to the adjacency matrix of the interconnected network, which can be useful to characterize percolation processes on such systems.

Double transition of information spreading in a two-layered network

A great deal of significant progress has been seen in the study of information spreading on populations of networked individuals. A common point in many of the past studies is that there is only one transition in the phase diagram of the final accepted size versus the transmission probability. However, whether other factors alter this phenomenology is still under debate, especially for the case of information spreading through many channels and platforms. In the present study, we adopt a two-layered network to represent the interactions of multiple channels and propose a Susceptible-Accepted-Recovered information spreading model. Interestingly, our model shows a novel double transition including a continuous transition and a following discontinuous transition in the phase diagram, which originates from two outbreaks between the two layers of the network. Furthermore, we reveal that the key factors are a weak coupling condition between the two layers, a large adoption threshold, and the difference of the degree distributions between the two layers. Moreover, we also test the model in the coupled empirical social networks and find similar results as in the synthetic networks. Then, an edge-based compartmental theory is developed which fully explains all numerical results. Our findings may be of significance for understanding the secondary outbreaks of information in real life.

Resilience of networks with community structure behaves as if under an external field

Although detecting and characterizing community structure is key in the study of networked systems, we still do not understand how community structure affects systemic resilience and stability. We use percolation theory to develop a framework for studying the resilience of networks with a community structure. We find both analytically and numerically that interlinks (the connections among communities) affect the percolation phase transition in a way similar to an external field in a ferromagnetic- paramagnetic spin system. We also study universality class by defining the analogous critical exponents δ and γ, and we find that their values in various models and in real-world coauthor networks follow the fundamental scaling relations found in physical phase transitions. The methodology and results presented here facilitate the study of network resilience and also provide a way to understand phase transitions under external fields.

Multiple peaks patterns of epidemic spreading in multi-layer networks

The study of epidemic spreading on populations of networked individuals has seen recently a great deal of significant progresses. A common point in many of past studies is, however, that there is only one peak of infected density in each single epidemic spreading episode. At variance, real data from different cities over the world suggest that, besides a major single peak trait of infected density, a finite probability exists for a pattern made of two (or multiple) peaks. We show that such a latter feature is distinctive of a multilayered network of interactions, and reveal that a two peaks pattern may emerge from different time delays at which the epidemic spreads in between the two layers. Further, we show that the essential ingredient is a weak coupling condition between the layers themselves, while different degree distributions in the two layers are also helpful. Moreover, an edge-based theory is developed which fully explains all numerical results. Our findings may therefore be of significance for protecting secondary disasters of epidemics, which are definitely undesired in real life.

Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

Ranking of Nodal Infection Probability in Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Epidemic

The prevalence, which is the average fraction of infected nodes, has been studied to evaluate the robustness of a network subject to the spread of epidemics. We explore the vulnerability (infection probability) of each node in the metastable state with a given effective infection rate τ. Specifically, we investigate the ranking of the nodal vulnerability subject to a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic, motivated by the fact that the ranking can be crucial for a network operator to assess which nodes are more vulnerable. Via both theoretical and numerical approaches, we unveil that the ranking of nodal vulnerability tends to change more significantly as τ varies when τ is smaller or in Barabási-Albert than Erdős-Rényi random graphs.

Alzheimer's Disease Early Diagnosis Using Manifold-Based Semi-Supervised Learning

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is currently ranked as the sixth leading cause of death in the United States and recent estimates indicate that the disorder may rank third, just behind heart disease and cancer, as a cause of death for older people. Clearly, predicting this disease in the early stages and preventing it from progressing is of great importance. The diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) requires a variety of medical tests, which leads to huge amounts of multivariate heterogeneous data. It can be difficult and exhausting to manually compare, visualize, and analyze this data due to the heterogeneous nature of medical tests; therefore, an efficient approach for accurate prediction of the condition of the brain through the classification of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images is greatly beneficial and yet very challenging. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed for the diagnosis of very early stages of AD through an efficient classification of brain MRI images, which uses label propagation in a manifold-based semi-supervised learning framework. We first apply voxel morphometry analysis to extract some of the most critical AD-related features of brain images from the original MRI volumes and also gray matter (GM) segmentation volumes. The features must capture the most discriminative properties that vary between a healthy and Alzheimer-affected brain. Next, we perform a principal component analysis (PCA)-based dimension reduction on the extracted features for faster yet sufficiently accurate analysis. To make the best use of the captured features, we present a hybrid manifold learning framework which embeds the feature vectors in a subspace. Next, using a small set of labeled training data, we apply a label propagation method in the created manifold space to predict the labels of the remaining images and classify them in the two groups of mild Alzheimer's and normal condition (MCI/NC). The accuracy of the classification using the proposed method is 93.86% for the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) database of MRI brain images, providing, compared to the best existing methods, a 3% lower error rate.

Asymmetric disease dynamics in multihost interconnected networks

Epidemic spread in single-host systems strongly depends on the population's transmission network. However, little is known regarding the spread of epidemics across networks representing populations of multiple hosts. We explored cross-species transmission in a multilayer network where layers represent populations of two distinct hosts, and disease can spread across intralayer (within-host) and interlayer (between-host) edges. We developed an analytic framework for the SIR epidemic model to examine the effect of (i) source of infection and (ii) between-host asymmetry in infection probabilities, on disease risk. We measured risk as outbreak probability and outbreak size in a focal host, represented by one network layer. Numeric simulations were used to validate the analytic formulations. We found that outbreak probability is determined by a complex interaction between source of infection and between-host infection probabilities, whereas outbreak size is mainly affected by the non-focal host to focal host infection probability. Hence, inter-specific asymmetry in infection probabilities shapes disease dynamics in multihost networks. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple measures of disease risk and advance our understanding of disease spread in multihost systems. The study provides a flexible way to model disease dynamics in multiple hosts while considering contact heterogeneity within and between species. We strongly encourage empirical studies that include information on both cross-species infection rates and network structure of multiple hosts. Such studies are necessary to corroborate our theoretical results and to improve our understanding of multihost epidemiology.

Synchronized and mixed outbreaks of coupled recurrent epidemics

Epidemic spreading has been studied for a long time and most of them are focused on the growing aspect of a single epidemic outbreak. Recently, we extended the study to the case of recurrent epidemics (Sci. Rep. 5, 16010 (2015)) but limited only to a single network. We here report from the real data of coupled regions or cities that the recurrent epidemics in two coupled networks are closely related to each other and can show either synchronized outbreak pattern where outbreaks occur simultaneously in both networks or mixed outbreak pattern where outbreaks occur in one network but do not in another one. To reveal the underlying mechanism, we present a two-layered network model of coupled recurrent epidemics to reproduce the synchronized and mixed outbreak patterns. We show that the synchronized outbreak pattern is preferred to be triggered in two coupled networks with the same average degree while the mixed outbreak pattern is likely to show for the case with different average degrees. Further, we show that the coupling between the two layers tends to suppress the mixed outbreak pattern but enhance the synchronized outbreak pattern. A theoretical analysis based on microscopic Markov-chain approach is presented to explain the numerical results. This finding opens a new window for studying the recurrent epidemics in multi-layered networks.

Efficient method for comprehensive computation of agent-level epidemic dissemination in networks

Susceptible-infected (SI) and susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) are simple agent-based models often employed in epidemic studies. Both models describe the time evolution of infectious diseases in networks whose vertices are either susceptible (S) or infected (I) agents. Precise estimation for disease spreading is one of the major goals in epidemic studies but often restricted to heavy numerical simulations. Analytic methods using operatorial content are subject to the asymmetric eigenvalue problem, limiting the use of perturbative methods. Numerical methods are limited to small populations, since the vector space increases exponentially with population size N. Here, we propose the use of the squared norm of the probability vector to obtain an algebraic equation, which permits the evaluation of stationary states in Markov processes. The equation requires the eigenvalues of symmetrized time generators and takes full advantage of symmetries, reducing the time evolution to an O(N) sparse problem. The calculation of eigenvalues employs quantum many-body techniques, while the standard perturbation theory accounts for small modifications to the network topology.

EPIDEMIC SPREADING ON THREE-LAYER INTERDEPENDENT NETWORKS

Many epidemic diseases spread among three different populations with different contact patterns and infection rates. In response to such diseases, we propose two new types of three-layer interdependent networks — string-coupled networks and circular-coupled networks. We investigate an epidemic spreading on the two types of interdependent networks, propose two mathematical models through heterogeneous mean field approach and prove global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Through theoretical and numerical analysis, we find the following: the increase of each infection rate affects effectively only its own subnetwork and neighbors; in a string-coupled network, the middle subnetwork has bigger impact on the basic reproduction number than the end subnetworks with the growth of network size or infection rates; the basic reproduction number on a circular-coupled network is larger than that on a string-coupled network for a fixed network size; but the change of the basic reproduction number (or the average infection densities) is almost the same on both string-coupled and circular-coupled networks with the increasing of certain infection rate.

Transportation dynamics on coupled networks with limited bandwidth

The communication networks in real world often couple with each other to save costs, which results in any network does not have a stand-alone function and efficiency. To investigate this, in this paper we propose a transportation model on two coupled networks with bandwidth sharing. We find that the free-flow state and the congestion state can coexist in the two coupled networks, and the free-flow path and congestion path can coexist in each network. Considering three bandwidth-sharing mechanisms, random, assortative and disassortative couplings, we also find that the transportation capacity of the network only depends on the coupling mechanism, and the fraction of coupled links only affects the performance of the system in the congestion state, such as the traveling time. In addition, with assortative coupling, the transportation capacity of the system will decrease significantly. However, the disassortative coupling has little influence on the transportation capacity of the system, which provides a good strategy to save bandwidth. Furthermore, a theoretical method is developed to obtain the bandwidth usage of each link, based on which we can obtain the congestion transition point exactly.

Lévy random walks on multiplex networks

Random walks constitute a fundamental mechanism for many dynamics taking place on complex networks. Besides, as a more realistic description of our society, multiplex networks have been receiving a growing interest, as well as the dynamical processes that occur on top of them. Here, inspired by one specific model of random walks that seems to be ubiquitous across many scientific fields, the Lévy flight, we study a new navigation strategy on top of multiplex networks. Capitalizing on spectral graph and stochastic matrix theories, we derive analytical expressions for the mean first passage time and the average time to reach a node on these networks. Moreover, we also explore the efficiency of Lévy random walks, which we found to be very different as compared to the single layer scenario, accounting for the structure and dynamics inherent to the multiplex network. Finally, by comparing with some other important random walk processes defined on multiplex networks, we find that in some region of the parameters, a Lévy random walk is the most efficient strategy. Our results give us a deeper understanding of Lévy random walks and show the importance of considering the topological structure of multiplex networks when trying to find efficient navigation strategies.

Integrating cross-frequency and within band functional networks in resting-state MEG: A multi-layer network approach

Neuronal oscillations exist across a broad frequency spectrum, and are thought to provide a mechanism of interaction between spatially separated brain regions. Since ongoing mental activity necessitates the simultaneous formation of multiple networks, it seems likely that the brain employs interactions within multiple frequency bands, as well as cross-frequency coupling, to support such networks. Here, we propose a multi-layer network framework that elucidates this pan-spectral picture of network interactions. Our network consists of multiple layers (frequency-band specific networks) that influence each other via inter-layer (cross-frequency) coupling. Applying this model to MEG resting-state data and using envelope correlations as connectivity metric, we demonstrate strong dependency between within layer structure and inter-layer coupling, indicating that networks obtained in different frequency bands do not act as independent entities. More specifically, our results suggest that frequency band specific networks are characterised by a common structure seen across all layers, superimposed by layer specific connectivity, and inter-layer coupling is most strongly associated with this common mode. Finally, using a biophysical model, we demonstrate that there are two regimes of multi-layer network behaviour; one in which different layers are independent and a second in which they operate highly dependent. Results suggest that the healthy human brain operates at the transition point between these regimes, allowing for integration and segregation between layers. Overall, our observations show that a complete picture of global brain network connectivity requires integration of connectivity patterns across the full frequency spectrum.

The Accuracy of Mean-Field Approximation for Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Infection Rates

The epidemic spreading over a network has been studied for years by applying the mean-field approach in both homogeneous case, where each node may get infected by an infected neighbor with the same rate, and heterogeneous case, where the infection rates between different pairs of nodes are also different. Researchers have discussed whether the mean-field approaches could accurately describe the epidemic spreading for the homogeneous cases but not for the heterogeneous cases. In this paper, we explore if and under what conditions the mean-field approach could perform well when the infection rates are heterogeneous. In particular, we employ the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model and compare the average fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state, where the fraction of infected nodes remains stable for a long time, obtained by the continuous-time simulation and the mean-field approximation. We concentrate on an individual-based mean-field approximation called the N-intertwined Mean Field Approximation (NIMFA), which is an advanced approach considered the underlying network topology. Moreover, for the heterogeneity of the infection rates, we consider not only the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) infection rate but also the infection rate correlated with the degree of the two end nodes. We conclude that NIMFA is generally more accurate when the prevalence of the epidemic is higher. Given the same effective infection rate, NIMFA is less accurate when the variance of the i.i.d. infection rate or the correlation between the infection rate and the nodal degree leads to a lower prevalence. Moreover, given the same actual prevalence, NIMFA performs better in the cases: 1) when the variance of the i.i.d. infection rates is smaller (while the average is unchanged); 2) when the correlation between the infection rate and the nodal degree is positive. Our work suggests the conditions when the mean-field approach, in particular NIMFA, is more accurate in the approximation of the SIS epidemic with heterogeneous infection rates.

Rescue of endemic states in interconnected networks with adaptive coupling

We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of epidemic spreading on two layers of networks interconnected by adaptive links, which are rewired at random to avoid contacts between infected and susceptible nodes at the interlayer. We find that the rewiring reduces the effective connectivity for the transmission of the disease between layers, and may even totally decouple the networks. Weak endemic states, in which the epidemics spreads when the two layers are interconnected but not in each layer separately, show a transition from the endemic to the healthy phase when the rewiring overcomes a threshold value that depends on the infection rate, the strength of the coupling and the mean connectivity of the networks. In the strong endemic scenario, in which the epidemics is able to spread on each separate network –and therefore on the interconnected system– the prevalence in each layer decreases when increasing the rewiring, arriving to single network values only in the limit of infinitely fast rewiring. We also find that rewiring amplifies finite-size effects, preventing the disease transmission between finite networks, as there is a non zero probability that the epidemics stays confined in only one network during its lifetime.

The robustness of multiplex networks under layer node-based attack

From transportation networks to complex infrastructures, and to social and economic networks, a large variety of systems can be described in terms of multiplex networks formed by a set of nodes interacting through different network layers. Network robustness, as one of the most successful application areas of complex networks, has attracted great interest in a myriad of research realms. In this regard, how multiplex networks respond to potential attack is still an open issue. Here we study the robustness of multiplex networks under layer node-based random or targeted attack, which means that nodes just suffer attacks in a given layer yet no additional influence to their connections beyond this layer. A theoretical analysis framework is proposed to calculate the critical threshold and the size of giant component of multiplex networks when nodes are removed randomly or intentionally. Via numerous simulations, it is unveiled that the theoretical method can accurately predict the threshold and the size of giant component, irrespective of attack strategies. Moreover, we also compare the robustness of multiplex networks under multiplex node-based attack and layer node-based attack, and find that layer node-based attack makes multiplex networks more vulnerable, regardless of average degree and underlying topology.

Interconnectivity structure of a general interdependent network

A general two-layer network consists of two networks G_{1} and G_{2}, whose interconnection pattern is specified by the interconnectivity matrix B. We deduce desirable properties of B from a dynamic process point of view. Many dynamic processes are described by the Laplacian matrix Q. A regular topological structure of the interconnectivity matrix B (constant row and column sum) enables the computation of a nontrivial eigenmode (eigenvector and eigenvalue) of Q. The latter eigenmode is independent from G_{1} and G_{2}. Such a regularity in B, associated to equitable partitions, suggests design rules for the construction of interconnected networks and is deemed crucial for the interconnected network to show intriguing behavior, as discovered earlier for the special case where B=wI refers to an individual node to node interconnection with interconnection strength w. Extensions to a general m-layer network are also discussed.

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals' alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals' risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals' protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.

Coupled effects of local movement and global interaction on contagion

By incorporating segregated spatial domain and individual-based linkage into the SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, we propose a generalized epidemic model which can change from the territorial epidemic model to the networked epidemic model. The role of the individual-based linkage between different spatial domains is investigated. As we adjust the timescale parameter τ from 0 to unity, which represents the degree of activation of the individual-based linkage, three regions are found. Within the region of 0 < τ < 0.02 , the epidemic is determined by local movement and is sensitive to the timescale τ . Within the region of 0.02 < τ < 0.5 , the epidemic is insensitive to the timescale τ . Within the region of 0.5 < τ < 1 , the outbreak of the epidemic is determined by the structure of the individual-based linkage. As we keep an eye on the first region, the role of activating the individual-based linkage in the present model is similar to the role of the shortcuts in the two-dimensional small world network. Only activating a small number of the individual-based linkage can prompt the outbreak of the epidemic globally. The role of narrowing segregated spatial domain and reducing mobility in epidemic control is checked. These two measures are found to be conducive to curbing the spread of infectious disease only when the global interaction is suppressed. A log-log relation between the change in the number of infected individuals and the timescale τ is found. By calculating the epidemic threshold and the mean first encounter time, we heuristically analyze the microscopic characteristics of the propagation of the epidemic in the present model.

Exact coupling threshold for structural transition reveals diversified behaviors in interconnected networks

An interconnected network features a structural transition between two regimes [F. Radicchi and A. Arenas, Nat. Phys. 9, 717 (2013)]: one where the network components are structurally distinguishable and one where the interconnected network functions as a whole. Our exact solution for the coupling threshold uncovers network topologies with unexpected behaviors. Specifically, we show conditions that superdiffusion, introduced by Gómez et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 028701 (2013)], can occur despite the network components functioning distinctly. Moreover, we find that components of certain interconnected network topologies are indistinguishable despite very weak coupling between them.

Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

The relation between structural and functional connectivity patterns in complex brain networks

OBJECTIVE

An important problem in systems neuroscience is the relation between complex structural and functional brain networks. Here we use simulations of a simple dynamic process based upon the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of infection dynamics on an empirical structural brain network to investigate the extent to which the functional interactions between any two brain areas depend upon (i) the presence of a direct structural connection; and (ii) the degree product of the two areas in the structural network.

METHODS

For the structural brain network, we used a 78×78 matrix representing known anatomical connections between brain regions at the level of the AAL atlas (Gong et al., 2009). On this structural network we simulated brain dynamics using a model derived from the study of epidemic processes on networks. Analogous to the SIS model, each vertex/brain region could be in one of two states (inactive/active) with two parameters β and δ determining the transition probabilities. First, the phase transition between the fully inactive and partially active state was investigated as a function of β and δ. Second, the statistical interdependencies between time series of node states were determined (close to and far away from the critical state) with two measures: (i) functional connectivity based upon the correlation coefficient of integrated activation time series; and (ii) effective connectivity based upon conditional co-activation at different time intervals.

RESULTS

We find a phase transition between an inactive and a partially active state for a critical ratio τ=β/δ of the transition rates in agreement with the theory of SIS models. Slightly above the critical threshold, node activity increases with degree, also in line with epidemic theory. The functional, but not the effective connectivity matrix closely resembled the underlying structural matrix. Both functional connectivity and, to a lesser extent, effective connectivity were higher for connected as compared to disconnected (i.e.: not directly connected) nodes. Effective connectivity scaled with the degree product. For functional connectivity, a weaker scaling relation was only observed for disconnected node pairs. For random networks with the same degree distribution as the original structural network, similar patterns were seen, but the scaling exponent was significantly decreased especially for effective connectivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Even with a very simple dynamical model it can be shown that functional relations between nodes of a realistic anatomical network display clear patterns if the system is studied near the critical transition. The detailed nature of these patterns depends on the properties of the functional or effective connectivity measure that is used. While the strength of functional interactions between any two nodes clearly depends upon the presence or absence of a direct connection, this study has shown that the degree product of the nodes also plays a large role in explaining interaction strength, especially for disconnected nodes and in combination with an effective connectivity measure. The influence of degree product on node interaction strength probably reflects the presence of large numbers of indirect connections.

Percolation on interacting networks with feedback-dependency links

When real networks are considered, coupled networks with connectivity and feedback-dependency links are not rare but more general. Here, we develop a mathematical framework and study numerically and analytically the percolation of interacting networks with feedback-dependency links. For the case that all degree distributions of intra- and inter- connectivity links are Poissonian, we find that for a low density of inter-connectivity links, the system undergoes from second order to first order through hybrid phase transition as coupling strength increases. It implies that the average degree k of inter-connectivity links has a little influence on robustness of the system with a weak coupling strength, which corresponds to the second order transition, but for a strong coupling strength corresponds to the first order transition. That is to say, the system becomes robust as k increases. However, as the average degree k of each network increases, the system becomes robust for any coupling strength. In addition, we find that one can take less cost to design robust system as coupling strength decreases by analyzing minimum average degree kmin of maintaining system stability. Moreover, for high density of inter-connectivity links, we find that the hybrid phase transition region disappears, the first order region becomes larger and second order region becomes smaller. For the case of two coupled scale-free networks, the system also undergoes from second order to first order through hybrid transition as the coupling strength increases. We find that for a weak coupling strength, which corresponds to the second order transitions, feedback dependency links have no effect on robustness of system relative to no-feedback condition, but for strong coupling strength which corresponds to first order or hybrid phase transition, the system is more vulnerable under feedback condition comparing with no-feedback condition. Thus, for designing resilient system, designers should try to avoid the feedback dependency links, because the existence of feedback-dependency links makes the system extremely vulnerable and difficult to defend.

Estimating the epidemic threshold on networks by deterministic connections

For many epidemic networks some connections between nodes are treated as deterministic, while the remainder are random and have different connection probabilities. By applying spectral analysis to several constructed models, we find that one can estimate the epidemic thresholds of these networks by investigating information from only the deterministic connections. Nonetheless, in these models, generic nonuniform stochastic connections and heterogeneous community structure are also considered. The estimation of epidemic thresholds is achieved via inequalities with upper and lower bounds, which are found to be in very good agreement with numerical simulations. Since these deterministic connections are easier to detect than those stochastic connections, this work provides a feasible and effective method to estimate the epidemic thresholds in real epidemic networks.

Diversity of multilayer networks and its impact on collaborating epidemics

Interacting epidemics on diverse multilayer networks are increasingly important in modeling and analyzing the diffusion processes of real complex systems. A viral agent spreading on one layer of a multilayer network can interact with its counterparts by promoting (cooperative interaction), suppressing (competitive interaction), or inducing (collaborating interaction) its diffusion on other layers. Collaborating interaction displays different patterns: (i) random collaboration, where intralayer or interlayer induction has the same probability; (ii) concentrating collaboration, where consecutive intralayer induction is guaranteed with a probability of 1; and (iii) cascading collaboration, where consecutive intralayer induction is banned with a probability of 0. In this paper, we develop a top-bottom framework that uses only two distributions, the overlaid degree distribution and edge-type distribution, to model collaborating epidemics on multilayer networks. We then state the response of three collaborating patterns to structural diversity (evenness and difference of network layers). For viral agents with small transmissibility, we find that random collaboration is more effective in networks with higher diversity (high evenness and difference), while the concentrating pattern is more suitable in uneven networks. Interestingly, the cascading pattern requires a network with moderate difference and high evenness, and the moderately uneven coupling of multiple network layers can effectively increase robustness to resist cascading failure. With large transmissibility, however, we find that all collaborating patterns are more effective in high-diversity networks. Our work provides a systemic analysis of collaborating epidemics on multilayer networks. The results enhance our understanding of biotic and informative diffusion through multiple vectors.

Immunization of epidemics in multiplex networks

Up to now, immunization of disease propagation has attracted great attention in both theoretical and experimental researches. However, vast majority of existing achievements are limited to the simple assumption of single layer networked population, which seems obviously inconsistent with recent development of complex network theory: each node could possess multiple roles in different topology connections. Inspired by this fact, we here propose the immunization strategies on multiplex networks, including multiplex node-based random (targeted) immunization and layer node-based random (targeted) immunization. With the theory of generating function, theoretical analysis is developed to calculate the immunization threshold, which is regarded as the most critical index for the effectiveness of addressed immunization strategies. Interestingly, both types of random immunization strategies show more efficiency in controlling disease spreading on multiplex Erdös-Rényi (ER) random networks; while targeted immunization strategies provide better protection on multiplex scale-free (SF) networks.

Nonconsensus opinion model on directed networks

Dynamic social opinion models have been widely studied on undirected networks, and most of them are based on spin interaction models that produce a consensus. In reality, however, many networks such as Twitter and the World Wide Web are directed and are composed of both unidirectional and bidirectional links. Moreover, from choosing a coffee brand to deciding who to vote for in an election, two or more competing opinions often coexist. In response to this ubiquity of directed networks and the coexistence of two or more opinions in decision-making situations, we study a nonconsensus opinion model introduced by Shao et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 018701 (2009)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.103.018701] on directed networks. We define directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links in a network, and we use the linear correlation coefficient ρ between the in-degree and out-degree of a node to quantify the relation between the in-degree and out-degree. We introduce two degree-preserving rewiring approaches which allow us to construct directed networks that can have a broad range of possible combinations of directionality ξ and linear correlation coefficient ρ and to study how ξ and ρ impact opinion competitions. We find that, as the directionality ξ or the in-degree and out-degree correlation ρ increases, the majority opinion becomes more dominant and the minority opinion's ability to survive is lowered.

The structure and dynamics of multilayer networks

In the past years, network theory has successfully characterized the interaction among the constituents of a variety of complex systems, ranging from biological to technological, and social systems. However, up until recently, attention was almost exclusively given to networks in which all components were treated on equivalent footing, while neglecting all the extra information about the temporal- or context-related properties of the interactions under study. Only in the last years, taking advantage of the enhanced resolution in real data sets, network scientists have directed their interest to the multiplex character of real-world systems, and explicitly considered the time-varying and multilayer nature of networks. We offer here a comprehensive review on both structural and dynamical organization of graphs made of diverse relationships (layers) between its constituents, and cover several relevant issues, from a full redefinition of the basic structural measures, to understanding how the multilayer nature of the network affects processes and dynamics.

Analysis of an epidemic model with awareness decay on regular random networks

The existence of a die-out threshold (different from the classic disease-invasion one) defining a region of slow extinction of an epidemic has been proved elsewhere for susceptible-aware-infectious-susceptible models without awareness decay, through bifurcation analysis. By means of an equivalent mean-field model defined on regular random networks, we interpret the dynamics of the system in this region and prove that the existence of bifurcation for this second epidemic threshold crucially depends on the absence of awareness decay. We show that the continuum of equilibria that characterizes the slow die-out dynamics collapses into a unique equilibrium when a constant rate of awareness decay is assumed, no matter how small, and that the resulting bifurcation from the disease-free equilibrium is equivalent to that of standard epidemic models. We illustrate these findings with continuous-time stochastic simulations on regular random networks with different degrees. Finally, the behaviour of solutions with and without decay in awareness is compared around the second epidemic threshold for a small rate of awareness decay.

From a single network to a network of networks

Network science has attracted much attention in recent years due to its interdisciplinary applications. We witnessed the revolution of network science in 1998 and 1999 started with small-world and scale-free networks having now thousands of high-profile publications, and it seems that since 2010 studies of ‘network of networks’ (NON), sometimes called multilayer networks or multiplex, have attracted more and more attention. The analytic framework for NON yields a novel percolation law for n interdependent networks that shows that percolation theory of single networks studied extensively in physics and mathematics in the last 50 years is a specific limit of the rich and very different general case of n coupled networks. Since then, properties and dynamics of interdependent and interconnected networks have been studied extensively, and scientists are finding many interesting results and discovering many surprising phenomena. Because most natural and engineered systems are composed of multiple subsystems and layers of connectivity, it is important to consider these features in order to improve our understanding of such complex systems. Now the study of NON has become one of the important directions in network science. In this paper, we review recent studies on the new emerging area—NON. Due to the fast growth of this field, there are many definitions of different types of NON, such as interdependent networks, interconnected networks, multilayered networks, multiplex networks and many others. There exist many datasets that can be represented as NON, such as network of different transportation networks including flight networks, railway networks and road networks, network of ecological networks including species interacting networks and food webs, network of biological networks including gene regulation network, metabolic network and protein–protein interacting network, network of social networks and so on. Among them, many interdependent networks including critical infrastructures are embedded in space, introducing spatial constraints. Thus, we also review the progress on study of spatially embedded networks. As a result of spatial constraints, such interdependent networks exhibit extreme vulnerabilities compared with their non-embedded counterparts. Such studies help us to understand, realize and hopefully mitigate the increasing risk in NON.

Epidemic outbreaks in two-scale community networks

We consider a model for the diffusion of epidemics in a population that is partitioned into local communities. In particular, assuming a mean-field approximation, we analyze a continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model that has appeared recently in the literature. The probability by which an individual infects individuals in its own community is different from the probability of infecting individuals in other communities. The aim of the model, compared to the standard, nonclustered one, is to provide a compact description for the presence of communities of local infection where the epidemic process is faster compared to the rate at which it spreads across communities. Ultimately, it provides a tool to express the probability of epidemic outbreaks in the form of a metastable infection probability. In the proposed model, the spatial structure of the network is encoded by the adjacency matrix of clusters, i.e., the connections between local communities, and by the vector of the sizes of local communities. Thus, the existence of a nontrivial metastable occupancy probability is determined by an epidemic threshold which depends on the clusters' size and on the intercommunity network structure.