Prediction of Heart Failure Decompensation Events by Trend Analysis of Telemonitoring Data

Clinical Predictive Modeling of Heart Failure: Domain Description, Models' Characteristics and Literature Review

This study attempts to identify and briefly describe the current directions in applied and theoretical clinical prediction research. Context-rich chronic heart failure syndrome (CHFS) telemedicine provides the medical foundation for this effort. In the chronic stage of heart failure, there are sudden exacerbations of syndromes with subsequent hospitalizations, which are called acute decompensation of heart failure (ADHF). These decompensations are the subject of diagnostic and prognostic predictions. The primary purpose of ADHF predictions is to clarify the current and future health status of patients and subsequently optimize therapeutic responses. We proposed a simplified discrete-state disease model as an attempt at a typical summarization of a medical subject before starting predictive modeling. The study tries also to structure the essential common characteristics of quantitative models in order to understand the issue in an application context. The last part provides an overview of prediction works in the field of CHFS. These three parts provide the reader with a comprehensive view of quantitative clinical predictive modeling in heart failure telemedicine with an emphasis on several key general aspects. The target community is medical researchers seeking to align their clinical studies with prognostic or diagnostic predictive modeling, as well as other predictive researchers. The study was written by a non-medical expert.

Deep Dynamic Patient Similarity Analysis: Model Development and Validation in ICU

BACKGROUND

Personalized medicine requires the patient similarity analysis for providing specific treatments tailed for each patient. However, the patient similarity analysis in personalized clinical scenarios encounters challenges, which are twofold. First, heterogeneous and multi-type data are usually recorded to Electronic Health Records (EHRs) during the course of admissions, which makes it difficult to measure the patient similarity. Second, disease progression manifests diverse disease states at different times, which brings sequential complexity to dynamically retrieve similar patients' sequences.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

To overcome the above-mentioned challenges, we propose a novel dynamic patient similarity analysis model based on deep learning. Specifically, the proposed model embeds the multi-type and heterogeneous data into hidden representations with a specially designed embedding and attention module. Thereafter, the proposed model retrieves similar patients' sequences based on these hidden representations in a dynamic manner. More importantly, we adopt two clinical tasks, i.e., diagnosis prediction and medication recommendation, to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. It is worth noticing that the proposed model integrates a drug-drug interaction (DDI) knowledge graph in the medication recommendation task to reduce adverse reactions caused by combinational treatments, such that a more rational strategy can be realized. We evaluate our proposed model using the critical care database MIMIC-III, which includes 5,430 patients covering 14,096 clinical visits.

RESULTS

The proposed model outperforms several state-of-the-art methods. For diagnosis prediction, the average PR-AUC score of the proposed model reaches 0.6200, which is significantly higher than that of the baseline models (0.2497∼0.5407). Meanwhile, for medication recommendation, the average PR-AUC of the proposed model is 0.6682 (Jaccard: 0.4070; F1: 0.5672; Recall: 0.7832) whereas the K-nearest model can only reach 0.3805 (Jaccard: 0.3911; F1: 0.5465; Recall: 0.5705). In addition, our proposed model achieves a lower DDI rate.

CONCLUSION

We propose a novel dynamic patient similarity analysis model, which can be implemented into a decision support system for clinical tasks including diagnosis prediction, surgical procedure selection, medication recommendation, etc. Also, the proposed model serves as an explainable protocol in clinical practice thanks to its analogy to real clinical reasoning where a doctor diagnoses diseases and prescribes medications according to the previous cured patients empirically.

Sequential Data-Based Patient Similarity Framework for Patient Outcome Prediction: Algorithm Development

BACKGROUND

Sequential information in electronic medical records is valuable and helpful for patient outcome prediction but is rarely used for patient similarity measurement because of its unevenness, irregularity, and heterogeneity.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a patient similarity framework for patient outcome prediction that makes use of sequential and cross-sectional information in electronic medical record systems.

METHODS

Sequence similarity was calculated from timestamped event sequences using edit distance, and trend similarity was calculated from time series using dynamic time warping and Haar decomposition. We also extracted cross-sectional information, namely, demographic, laboratory test, and radiological report data, for additional similarity calculations. We validated the effectiveness of the framework by constructing k-nearest neighbors classifiers to predict mortality and readmission for acute myocardial infarction patients, using data from (1) a public data set and (2) a private data set, at 3 time points-at admission, on Day 7, and at discharge-to provide early warning patient outcomes. We also constructed state-of-the-art Euclidean-distance k-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, random forest, long short-term memory network, and recurrent neural network models, which were used for comparison.

RESULTS

With all available information during a hospitalization episode, predictive models using the similarity model outperformed baseline models based on both public and private data sets. For mortality predictions, all models except for the logistic regression model showed improved performances over time. There were no such increasing trends in predictive performances for readmission predictions. The random forest and logistic regression models performed best for mortality and readmission predictions, respectively, when using information from the first week after admission.

CONCLUSIONS

For patient outcome predictions, the patient similarity framework facilitated sequential similarity calculations for uneven electronic medical record data and helped improve predictive performance.

Study on the semi-supervised learning-based patient similarity from heterogeneous electronic medical records

Background

A new learning-based patient similarity measurement was proposed to measure patients’ similarity for heterogeneous electronic medical records (EMRs) data.

Methods

We first calculated feature-level similarities according to the features’ attributes. A domain expert provided patient similarity scores of 30 randomly selected patients. These similarity scores and feature-level similarities for 30 patients comprised the labeled sample set, which was used for the semi-supervised learning algorithm to learn the patient-level similarities for all patients. Then we used the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) classifier to predict four liver conditions. The predictive performances were compared in four different situations. We also compared the performances between personalized kNN models and other machine learning models. We assessed the predictive performances by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), F1-score, and cross-entropy (CE) loss.

Results

As the size of the random training samples increased, the kNN models using the learned patient similarity to select near neighbors consistently outperformed those using the Euclidean distance to select near neighbors (all P values < 0.001). The kNN models using the learned patient similarity to identify the top k nearest neighbors from the random training samples also had a higher best-performance (AUC: 0.95 vs. 0.89, F1-score: 0.84 vs. 0.67, and CE loss: 1.22 vs. 1.82) than those using the Euclidean distance. As the size of the similar training samples increased, which composed the most similar samples determined by the learned patient similarity, the performance of kNN models using the simple Euclidean distance to select the near neighbors degraded gradually. When exchanging the role of the Euclidean distance, and the learned patient similarity in selecting the near neighbors and similar training samples, the performance of the kNN models gradually increased. These two kinds of kNN models had the same best-performance of AUC 0.95, F1-score 0.84, and CE loss 1.22. Among the four reference models, the highest AUC and F1-score were 0.94 and 0.80, separately, which were both lower than those for the simple and similarity-based kNN models.

Conclusions

This learning-based method opened an opportunity for similarity measurement based on heterogeneous EMR data and supported the secondary use of EMR data.

Influential Factors in Remote Monitoring of Heart Failure Patients: A Review of the Literature and Direction for Future Research

With new advances in technology, remote monitoring of heart failure (HF) patients has become increasingly prevalent and has the potential to greatly enhance the outcome of care. Many studies have focused on implementing systems for the management of HF by analyzing physiological signals for the early detection of HF decompensation. This paper reviews recent literature exploring significant physiological variables, compares their reliability in predicting HF-related events, and examines the findings according to the monitored variables used such as body weight, bio-impedance, blood pressure, heart rate, and respiration rate. The reviewed studies identified correlations between the monitored variables and the number of alarms, HF-related events, and/or readmission rates. It was observed that the most promising results came from studies that used a combination of multiple parameters, compared to using an individual variable. The main challenges discussed include inaccurate data collection leading to contradictory outcomes from different studies, compliance with daily monitoring, and consideration of additional factors such as physical activity and diet. The findings demonstrate the need for a shared remote monitoring platform which can lead to a significant reduction of false alarms and help in collecting reliable data from the patients for clinical use especially for the prevention of cardiac events.

Recommendations for patient similarity classes: results of the AMIA 2019 workshop on defining patient similarity

Defining patient-to-patient similarity is essential for the development of precision medicine in clinical care and research. Conceptually, the identification of similar patient cohorts appears straightforward; however, universally accepted definitions remain elusive. Simultaneously, an explosion of vendors and published algorithms have emerged and all provide varied levels of functionality in identifying patient similarity categories. To provide clarity and a common framework for patient similarity, a workshop at the American Medical Informatics Association 2019 Annual Meeting was convened. This workshop included invited discussants from academics, the biotechnology industry, the FDA, and private practice oncology groups. Drawing from a broad range of backgrounds, workshop participants were able to coalesce around 4 major patient similarity classes: (1) feature, (2) outcome, (3) exposure, and (4) mixed-class. This perspective expands into these 4 subtypes more critically and offers the medical informatics community a means of communicating their work on this important topic.

Machine learning for subtype definition and risk prediction in heart failure, acute coronary syndromes and atrial fibrillation: systematic review of validity and clinical utility

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used in research for subtype definition and risk prediction, particularly in cardiovascular diseases. No existing ML models are routinely used for cardiovascular disease management, and their phase of clinical utility is unknown, partly due to a lack of clear criteria. We evaluated ML for subtype definition and risk prediction in heart failure (HF), acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

For ML studies of subtype definition and risk prediction, we conducted a systematic review in HF, ACS and AF, using PubMed, MEDLINE and Web of Science from January 2000 until December 2019. By adapting published criteria for diagnostic and prognostic studies, we developed a seven-domain, ML-specific checklist.

RESULTS

Of 5918 studies identified, 97 were included. Across studies for subtype definition (n = 40) and risk prediction (n = 57), there was variation in data source, population size (median 606 and median 6769), clinical setting (outpatient, inpatient, different departments), number of covariates (median 19 and median 48) and ML methods. All studies were single disease, most were North American (n = 61/97) and only 14 studies combined definition and risk prediction. Subtype definition and risk prediction studies respectively had limitations in development (e.g. 15.0% and 78.9% of studies related to patient benefit; 15.0% and 15.8% had low patient selection bias), validation (12.5% and 5.3% externally validated) and impact (32.5% and 91.2% improved outcome prediction; no effectiveness or cost-effectiveness evaluations).

CONCLUSIONS

Studies of ML in HF, ACS and AF are limited by number and type of included covariates, ML methods, population size, country, clinical setting and focus on single diseases, not overlap or multimorbidity. Clinical utility and implementation rely on improvements in development, validation and impact, facilitated by simple checklists. We provide clear steps prior to safe implementation of machine learning in clinical practice for cardiovascular diseases and other disease areas.

Weight optimized neural network for heart disease prediction using hybrid lion plus particle swarm algorithm

Heart disease remains one of the significantcauses ofmortality and morbidity amongst the world's population. Predicting heart disease is considered as one of the vital issues in clinical data analysis. Since the number of data is rising gradually, it is muchcomplicatedforanalyzing and processing, and especially, it becomes difficult to maintain the e-healthcare data. Moreover, the prediction model under machine learning seems to be anessentialfacet in this research area. In this scenario, this paper aims to propose a new heart disease prediction model with the inclusion of specificprocesses like Feature Extraction, Record, Attribute minimization, and Classification. Initially, both statistical and higher-order statistical features are extracted under feature extraction. Subsequently, the record and attribute minimization carried out, where Component Analysis PCA plays its major role in solving the "curse of dimensionality."Finally, the prediction process takes place by the Neural Network (NN) model that intake the dimensionally reduced features. Moreover, the major intention of this paper deals with the accurate prediction. Hence, it is planned to influence the utility of meta-heuristic algorithms for the weight optimization of NN. This paper introduces a new hybrid algorithm termed Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) merged LA update (PM-LU) algorithm that solves the above-mentioned optimization crisis, which hybrids the concept of Lion Algorithm (LA) and PSO algorithm. Finally, the efficiency of proposed work is compared over other conventional approaches and its superiority is proven with respect to certain performance measures. From the analysis, the presented PM-LU-NN scheme with regards to accuracy is 3.85%, 12.5%, 12.5%, 3.85%, and 7.41% better than LM-NN, WOA-NN, FF-NN, PSO-NN and LA-NN algorithms.

Decompensation in Critical Care: Early Prediction of Acute Heart Failure Onset

BACKGROUND

Heart failure is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Acute heart failure, broadly defined as rapid onset of new or worsening signs and symptoms of heart failure, often requires hospitalization and admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). This acute condition is highly heterogeneous and less well-understood as compared to chronic heart failure. The ICU, through detailed and continuously monitored patient data, provides an opportunity to retrospectively analyze decompensation and heart failure to evaluate physiological states and patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study is to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among those admitted to ICUs and to evaluate combinations of clinical features that are predictive of decompensation events, such as the onset of acute heart failure, using machine learning techniques. To accomplish this objective, we leveraged tele-ICU data from over 200 hospitals across the United States.

METHODS

We evaluated the feasibility of predicting decompensation soon after ICU admission for 26,534 patients admitted without a history of heart failure with specific heart failure risk factors (ie, coronary artery disease, hypertension, and myocardial infarction) and 96,350 patients admitted without risk factors using remotely monitored laboratory, vital signs, and discrete physiological measurements. Multivariate logistic regression and random forest models were applied to predict decompensation and highlight important features from combinations of model inputs from dissimilar data.

RESULTS

The most prevalent risk factor in our data set was hypertension, although most patients diagnosed with heart failure were admitted to the ICU without a risk factor. The highest heart failure prediction accuracy was 0.951, and the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.9503 with random forest and combined vital signs, laboratory values, and discrete physiological measurements. Random forest feature importance also highlighted combinations of several discrete physiological features and laboratory measures as most indicative of decompensation. Timeline analysis of aggregate vital signs revealed a point of diminishing returns where additional vital signs data did not continue to improve results.

CONCLUSIONS

Heart failure risk factors are common in tele-ICU data, although most patients that are diagnosed with heart failure later in an ICU stay presented without risk factors making a prediction of decompensation critical. Decompensation was predicted with reasonable accuracy using tele-ICU data, and optimal data extraction for time series vital signs data was identified near a 200-minute window size. Overall, results suggest combinations of laboratory measurements and vital signs are viable for early and continuous prediction of patient decompensation.

A classification model for prediction of clinical severity level using qSOFA medical score

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to develop an efficient prediction model using vital signs and standard medical score systems, which predicts the clinical severity level of the patient in advance based on the quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) medical score method.

Design/methodology/approach

To predict the clinical severity level of the patient in advance, the authors have formulated a training dataset that is constructed based on the qSOFA medical score method. Further, along with the multiple vital signs, different standard medical scores and their correlation features are used to build and improve the accuracy of the prediction model. It is made sure that the constructed training set is suitable for the severity level prediction because the formulated dataset has different clusters each corresponding to different severity levels according to qSOFA score.

Findings

From the experimental result, it is found that the inclusion of the standard medical scores and their correlation along with multiple vital signs improves the accuracy of the clinical severity level prediction model. In addition, the authors showed that the training dataset formulated from the temporal data (which includes vital signs and medical scores) based on the qSOFA medical scoring system has the clusters which correspond to each severity level in qSOFA score. Finally, it is found that RAndom k-labELsets multi-label classification performs better prediction of severity level compared to neural network-based multi-label classification.

Originality/value

This paper helps in identifying patient' clinical status.

Latent states extraction through Kalman Filter for the prediction of heart failure decompensation events

Cardiac function deterioration of heart failure patients is frequently manifested by the occurrence of decompensation events. One relevant step to adequately prevent cardiovascular status degradation is to predict decompensation episodes in order to allow preventive medical interventions.In this paper we introduce a methodology with the goal of finding onsets of worsening progressions from multiple physiological parameters which may have predictive value in decompensation events. The best performance was obtained for the model composed by only two features using a telemonitoring dataset (myHeart) with 41 patients. Results were achieved by applying leave-one-subject-out validation and correspond to a geometric mean of 83.67%. The obtained performance suggests that the methodology has the potential to be used in decision support solutions and assist in the prevention of this public health burden.

Measurement and application of patient similarity in personalized predictive modeling based on electronic medical records

Background

Conventional risk prediction techniques may not be the most suitable approach for personalized prediction for individual patients. Therefore, individualized predictive modeling based on similar patients has emerged. This study aimed to propose a comprehensive measurement of patient similarity using real-world electronic medical records data, and evaluate the effectiveness of the individualized prediction of a patient’s diabetes status based on the patient similarity.

Results

When using no more than 30% of the whole training sample, the personalized predictive models outperformed corresponding traditional models built on randomly selected training samples of the same size as the personalized models (P < 0.001 for all). With only the top 1000 (10%), 700 (7%) and 1400 (14%) similar samples, personalized random forest, k-nearest neighbor and logistic regression models reached the globally optimal performance with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.90, 0.82 and 0.89, respectively.

Conclusions

The proposed patient similarity measurement was effective when developing personalized predictive models. The successful application of patient similarity in predicting a patient’s diabetes status provided useful references for diagnostic decision-making support by investigating the evidence on similar patients.

Risk Prediction of Heart Failure Decompensation Events in Multiparametric Feature Spaces

Cardiac function deterioration of heart failure patients is frequently manifested by the occurrence of decompensation events. One relevant step to adequately prevent cardiovascular status degradation is to predict decompensation episodes in order to allow preventive medical interventions. In this paper we introduce a methodology with the goal of finding relevant feature spaces from multiple physiological parameters which may have predictive value in decompensation events. The best performance was obtained for the feature space comprising the following features: mean weight, standard deviation of the blood pressure and mean of extra-thoracic impedance in a time window of 20 days. Results were achieved by applying leave-one-out validation and correspond to a geometric mean of 88.32%. The obtained performance suggests that the methodology has the potential to be used in decision support solutions and assist in the prevention of this public health burden.

A Community-Based IoT Personalized Wireless Healthcare Solution Trial

This paper presents an advanced Internet of Things point-of-care bio-fluid analyzer; a LoRa/Bluetooth-enabled electronic reader for biomedical strip-based diagnostics system for personalized monitoring. We undertake test simulations (technology trial without patient subjects) to demonstrate potential of long-range analysis, using a disposable test ‘key’ and companion Android app to form a diagnostic platform suitable for remote point-of-care screening for urinary tract infection (UTI). The 868 MHz LoRaWAN-enabled personalized monitor demonstrated sound potential with UTI test results being correctly diagnosed and transmitted to a remote secure cloud server in every case. Tests ranged over distances of 1.1–6.0 Km with radio path losses from 119–141 dB. All tests conducted were correctly and robustly received at the base station and relayed to the secure server for inspection. The UTI test strips were visually inspected for correct diagnosis based on color change and verified as 100% accurate. Results from testing across a number of regions indicate that such an Internet of Things medical solution is a robust and simple way to deliver next generation community-based smart diagnostics and disease management to best benefit patients and clinical staff alike. This significant step can be applied to any type of home or region, particularly those lacking suitable mobile signals, broadband connections, or even landlines. It brings subscription-free long-range bio-telemetry to healthcare providers and offers savings on regular clinician home visits or frequent clinic visits by the chronically ill. This paper highlights practical hurdles in establishing an Internet of Medical Things network, assisting informed deployment of similar future systems.

Patient Similarity in Prediction Models Based on Health Data: A Scoping Review

Background

Physicians and health policy makers are required to make predictions during their decision making in various medical problems. Many advances have been made in predictive modeling toward outcome prediction, but these innovations target an average patient and are insufficiently adjustable for individual patients. One developing idea in this field is individualized predictive analytics based on patient similarity. The goal of this approach is to identify patients who are similar to an index patient and derive insights from the records of similar patients to provide personalized predictions..

Objective

The aim is to summarize and review published studies describing computer-based approaches for predicting patients’ future health status based on health data and patient similarity, identify gaps, and provide a starting point for related future research.

Methods

The method involved (1) conducting the review by performing automated searches in Scopus, PubMed, and ISI Web of Science, selecting relevant studies by first screening titles and abstracts then analyzing full-texts, and (2) documenting by extracting publication details and information on context, predictors, missing data, modeling algorithm, outcome, and evaluation methods into a matrix table, synthesizing data, and reporting results.

Results

After duplicate removal, 1339 articles were screened in abstracts and titles and 67 were selected for full-text review. In total, 22 articles met the inclusion criteria. Within included articles, hospitals were the main source of data (n=10). Cardiovascular disease (n=7) and diabetes (n=4) were the dominant patient diseases. Most studies (n=18) used neighborhood-based approaches in devising prediction models. Two studies showed that patient similarity-based modeling outperformed population-based predictive methods.

Conclusions

Interest in patient similarity-based predictive modeling for diagnosis and prognosis has been growing. In addition to raw/coded health data, wavelet transform and term frequency-inverse document frequency methods were employed to extract predictors. Selecting predictors with potential to highlight special cases and defining new patient similarity metrics were among the gaps identified in the existing literature that provide starting points for future work. Patient status prediction models based on patient similarity and health data offer exciting potential for personalizing and ultimately improving health care, leading to better patient outcomes.