Phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary change? An examination of the phenological response of an arctic seabird to climate change

Individual plasticity in response to rising sea temperatures contributes to an advancement in green turtle nesting phenology

Phenological changes (i.e. shifts in the timing of biological events) are among the most frequently reported population-level responses to climate change and are often assumed to be adaptive and increase population viability. These may be driven by both individual-level phenotypic plasticity and population-level evolutionary and demographic changes. However, few studies have explored how individual-level versus population-level processes drive phenological trends. Using a 31-year dataset of over 600 individually marked nesting green turtles (Chelonia mydas), we quantify the population- and individual-level temporal trend in their first nest date. Of the latter, approximately 30% is attributable to individual phenological plasticity in response to sea surface temperature, with females advancing their nesting by 6.47 days for every degree (Celsius) increase. The remaining change is almost entirely explained by individual- and population-level changes in size and breeding experience (correlates of age), as well as the number of clutches laid per season. This is the first study of individual-level phenological change in a marine ectotherm, furthering our understanding of how this and similar species may respond to rising temperatures.

Climate mediates the trade-offs associated with phenotypic plasticity in an amphibian polyphenism

Polyphenisms occur when phenotypic plasticity produces morphologically distinct phenotypes from the same genotype. Plasticity is maintained through fitness trade-offs which are conferred to different phenotypes under specific environmental contexts. Predicting the impacts of contemporary climate change on phenotypic plasticity is critical for climate-sensitive animals like amphibians, but elucidating the selective pressures maintaining polyphenisms requires a framework to control for all mechanistic drivers of plasticity. Using a 32-year dataset documenting the larval and adult histories of 717 Arizona tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium nebulosum), we determined how annual variation in climate and density dependence explained the maintenance of two distinct morphs (terrestrial metamorph vs. aquatic paedomorph) in a high-elevation polyphenism. The effects of climate and conspecific density on morph development were evaluated with piecewise structural equation models (SEM) to tease apart the direct and indirect pathways by which these two mechanisms affect phenotypic plasticity. Climate had a direct effect on morph outcome whereby longer growing seasons favoured metamorphic outcomes. Also, climate had indirect effects on morph outcome as mediated through density-dependent effects, such as long overwintering coldspells corresponding to high cannibal densities and light snowpacks corresponding to high larval densities, both of which promoted paedomorphic outcomes. Both climate and density dependence serve as important proxies for growth and resource limitation, which are important underlying drivers of the phenotypic plasticity in animal polyphenisms. Our findings motivate new studies to determine how contemporary climate change will alter the selective pressures maintaining phenotypic plasticity and polyphenisms.

Taking advantage of opportunistically collected historical occurrence data to detect responses to climate change: The case of temperature and Iberian dung beetles

This study introduces a novel approach to leverage high-resolution historical climate data and opportunistically collected historical species occurrence data for detecting adaptive responses to global change. We applied this procedure to the temperature data and the most comprehensive Iberian dataset of dung beetle occurrences as an illustrative example. To understand how populations of different species are responding, we devised a procedure that compares the temporal trend of spatial and temperature variables at the locations and times of all the occurrence data collection (overall trend) with the specific temporal trends among the occurrences of each species. The prevalence of various species responses is linked to life history or taxonomic characteristics, enabling the identification of key factors influencing the propensity to experience different effects from climate change. Our findings suggest that nearly half of the Iberian dung beetle species may be adversely affected by temperature increases, with a geographic shift being the most common response. The results generated through the proposed methodology should be regarded as preliminary information, serving to formulate hypotheses about the diverse responses of species to climate change and aiding in the selection of candidate species capable of coping with challenges posed by changing temperatures.

Sex-specific responses to GnRH challenge, but not food supply, in kittiwakes: Evidence for the "sensitivity to information" hypothesis

Seasonal timing of breeding is usually considered to be triggered by endogenous responses linked to predictive cues (e.g., photoperiod) and supplementary cues that vary annually (e.g., food supply), but social cues are also important. Females may be more sensitive to supplementary cues because of their greater role in reproductive timing decisions, while males may only require predictive cues. We tested this hypothesis by food-supplementing female and male colonial seabirds (black-legged kittiwakes, Rissa tridactyla) during the pre-breeding season. We measured colony attendance via GPS devices, quantified pituitary and gonadal responses to gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) challenge, and observed subsequent laying phenology. Food supplementation advanced laying phenology and increased colony attendance. While female pituitary responses to GnRH were consistent across the pre-breeding season, males showed a peak in pituitary sensitivity at approximately the same time that most females were initiating follicle development. The late peak in male pituitary response to GnRH questions a common assumption that males primarily rely on predictive cues (e.g., photoperiod) while females also rely on supplementary cues (e.g., food availability). Instead, male kittiwakes may integrate synchronising cues from their social environment to adjust their reproductive timing to coincide with female timing.

Reproductive phenology is a repeatable, heritable trait linked to the timing of other life-history events in a migratory marine predator

Population-level shifts in reproductive phenology in response to environmental change are common, but whether individual-level responses are modified by demographic and genetic factors remains less well understood. We used mixed models to quantify how reproductive timing varied across 1772 female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) breeding at Marion Island in the Southern Ocean (1989-2019), and to identify the factors that correlate with phenological shifts within and between individuals. We found strong support for covariation in the timing of breeding arrival dates and the timing of the preceding moult. Breeding arrival dates were more repeatable at the individual level, as compared with the population level, even after accounting for individual traits (wean date as a pup, age and breeding experience) associated with phenological variability. Mother-daughter similarities in breeding phenology were also evident, indicating that additive genetic effects may contribute to between-individual variation in breeding phenology. Over 30 years, elephant seal phenology did not change towards earlier or later dates, and we found no correlation between annual fluctuations in phenology and indices of environmental variation. Our results show how maternal genetic (or non-genetic) effects, individual traits and linkages between cyclical life-history events can drive within- and between-individual variation in reproductive phenology.

Individual variability in diving behavior of the Black-vented Shearwater in an ever-changing habitat

Oceanic mesoscale systems are characterized by inherent variability. Climatic change adds entropy to this system, making it a highly variable environment in which marine species live. Being at the higher levels of the food chain, predators maximize their performance through plastic foraging strategies. Individual variability within a population and the possible repeatability across time and space may provide stability in a population facing environmental changes. Therefore, variability and repeatability of behaviors, particularly diving behavior, could play an important role in understanding the adaptation pathway of a species. This study focuses on characterizing the frequency and timing of different dives (termed simple and complex) and how these are influenced by individual and environmental characteristics (sea surface temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, bathymetry, salinity, and Ekman transport). This study is based on GPS and accelerometer-recorded information from a breeding group of 59 Black-vented Shearwater and examine consistency in diving behavior at both individual and sex levels across four different breeding seasons. The species was found to be the best performing free diver in the Puffinus genus with a maximum dive duration of 88 s. Among the environmental variables assessed, a relationship was found with active upwelling conditions enhancing low energetic cost diving, on the contrary, reduced upwelling and warmer superficial waters induce more energetically demanding diving affecting diving performance and ultimately body conditions. The body conditions of Black-vented Shearwaters in 2016 were worse than in subsequent years, in 2016, deepest and longest complex dives were recorded, while simple dives were longer in 2017-2019. Nevertheless, the species' plasticity allows at least part of the population to breed and feed during warmer events. While carry-over effects have already been reported, the effect of more frequent warm events is still unknown.

Plastic responses to warmer climates: a semi-natural experiment on lizard populations

Facing warming environments, species can exhibit plastic or microevolutionary changes in their thermal physiology to adapt to novel climates. Here, using semi-natural mesocosms, we experimentally investigated over two successive years whether a 2°C-warmer climate produces selective and inter- and intragenerational plastic changes in the thermal traits (preferred temperature and dorsal coloration) of the lizard Zootoca vivipara. In a warmer climate, the dorsal darkness, dorsal contrast, and preferred temperature of adults plastically decreased and covariances between these traits were disrupted. While selection gradients were overall weak, selection gradients for darkness were slightly different between climates and in the opposite direction to plastic changes. Contrary to adults, male juveniles were darker in warmer climates either through plasticity or selection and this effect was strengthened by intergenerational plasticity when juveniles' mothers also experienced warmer climates. While the plastic changes in adult thermal traits alleviate the immediate overheating costs of warming, its opposite direction to selective gradients and to juveniles' phenotypic responses may slow down evolutionary shifts toward phenotypes that are better adapted to future climates. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering inter- and intragenerational plasticity along with selective processes to better understand adaptation and population dynamics in light of climate change.

Ecological response of an umbrella species to changing climate and land use: Habitat conservation for Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region, Southwestern China

Climate and land use changes are increasingly recognized as major threats to global biodiversity, with significant impacts on wildlife populations and ecosystems worldwide. The study of how climate and land use changes impact wildlife is of paramount importance for advancing our understanding of ecological processes in the face of global environmental change, informing conservation planning and management, and identifying the mechanisms and thresholds that underlie species' responses to shifting climatic conditions. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is a prominent umbrella species in a biodiversity hotspot in Southwestern China, and its conservation is vital for safeguarding sympatric species. However, the extent to which this species' habitat may respond to global climate and land use changes is poorly understood, underscoring the need for further investigation. Our goal was to anticipate the potential impacts of upcoming climate and land use changes on the distribution and dispersal patterns of the Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region. We used MaxEnt modeling to evaluate habitat vulnerability using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios of climate and land use changes. Subsequently, we used Circuit Theory to identify prospective dispersal paths. Our results revealed that the current area of suitable habitat for the Asiatic black bear was 225,609.59 km2 (comprising 39.69% of the total study area), but was expected to decrease by -53.1%, -49.48%, and -28.55% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 projection scenarios, respectively. Across all three GCMs, the distribution areas and dispersal paths of the Asiatic black bear were projected to shift to higher altitudes and constrict by the 2070s. Furthermore, the results indicated that the density of dispersal paths would decrease, while the resistance to dispersal would increase across the study area. In order to protect the Asiatic black bear, it is essential to prioritize the protection of climate refugia and dispersal paths. Our findings provide a sound scientific foundation for the allocation of such protected areas in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region that are both effective and adaptive in the face of ongoing global climate and land use changes.

Decadal migration phenology of a long-lived Arctic icon keeps pace with climate change

Animals migrate in response to seasonal environments, to reproduce, to benefit from resource pulses, or to avoid fluctuating hazards. Although climate change is predicted to modify migration, only a few studies to date have demonstrated phenological shifts in marine mammals. In the Arctic, marine mammals are considered among the most sensitive to ongoing climate change due to their narrow habitat preferences and long life spans. Longevity may prove an obstacle for species to evolutionarily respond. For species that exhibit high site fidelity and strong associations with migration routes, adjusting the timing of migration is one of the few recourses available to respond to a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate evidence of significant delays in the timing of narwhal autumn migrations with satellite tracking data spanning 21 y from the Canadian Arctic. Measures of migration phenology varied annually and were explained by sex and climate drivers associated with ice conditions, suggesting that narwhals are adopting strategic migration tactics. Male narwhals were found to lead the migration out of the summering areas, while females, potentially with dependent young, departed later. Narwhals are remaining longer in their summer areas at a rate of 10 d per decade, a similar rate to that observed for climate-driven sea ice loss across the region. The consequences of altered space use and timing have yet to be evaluated but will expose individuals to increasing natural changes and anthropogenic activities on the summering areas.

Individual variation, personality, and the ability of animals to cope with climate change

The Sixth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change describes negative effects of climate change on animals occurring on a larger scale than previously appreciated. Animal species are increasingly experiencing more frequent and extreme weather in comparison with conditions in which the species evolved. Individual variation in behavioural and physiological responses of animals to stimuli from the environment is ubiquitous across all species. Populations with relatively high levels of individual variation are more likely to be able to survive in a range of environmental conditions and cope with climate change than populations with low levels of variation. Behavioural and physiological responses are linked in animals, and personality can be defined as consistent individual behavioural and physiological responses of animals to changes in their immediate environment. Glucocorticoids (cortisol and corticosterone) are hormones that, in addition to metabolic roles, are released when the neuroendocrine stress system is activated in response to stimuli from the environment perceived to be threatening. The size of a glucocorticoid response of an animal is an indication of the animal’s personality. Animals with reactive personalities have relatively high glucocorticoid responses, are relatively slow and thorough to explore new situations, and are more flexible and able to cope with changing or unpredictable conditions than animals with proactive personalities. Animals with reactive personalities are likely to be better able to cope with environmental changes due to climate change than animals with proactive personalities. A reaction norm shows the relationship between phenotype and environmental conditions, with the slope of a reaction norm for an individual animal a measure of phenotypic plasticity. If reaction norm slopes are not parallel, there is individual variation in plasticity. Populations with relatively high individual variation in plasticity of reaction norms will have more animals that can adjust to a new situation than populations with little variation in plasticity, so are more likely to persist as environments change due to climate change. Future studies of individual variation in plasticity of responses to changing environments will help understanding of how populations of animals may be able to cope with climate change.

Natal experience and pre-breeding environmental conditions affect lay date plasticity in Savannah Sparrows

Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to adjust the timing of life-history events in response to environmental and demographic conditions. Shifts by individuals in the timing of breeding with respect to variation in age and temperature are well documented in nature, and these changes are known to scale to affect population dynamics. However, relatively little is known about how organisms alter phenology in response to other demographic and environmental factors. We investigated how pre-breeding temperature, breeding population density, age, and rainfall in the first month of life influenced the timing and plasticity of lay date in a population of Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) monitored over 33 yr (1987-2019). Females that experienced warmer pre-breeding temperatures tended to lay eggs earlier, as did older females, but breeding population density had no effect on lay date. Natal precipitation interacted with age to influence lay date plasticity, with females that experienced high precipitation levels as nestlings advancing lay dates more strongly over the course of their lives. We also found evidence for varied pace of life; females that experienced high natal precipitation had shorter lifespans and reduced fecundity, but more nesting attempts over their lifetimes. Rainfall during the nestling period increased through time, while population density and fecundity declined, suggesting that increased precipitation on the breeding grounds may be detrimental to breeding females and ultimately the viability of the population as a whole. Our results suggest that females adjust their laying date in response to pre-breeding temperature, and as they age, while presenting new evidence that environmental conditions during the natal period can affect phenological plasticity and generate downstream, population-level effects.

Phenotypic plasticity drives phenological changes in a Mediterranean blue tit population

Earlier phenology induced by climate change, such as the passerines' breeding time, is observed in many natural populations. Understanding the nature of such changes is key to predict the responses of wild populations to climate change. Genetic changes have been rarely investigated for laying date, though it has been shown to be heritable and under directional selection, suggesting that the trait could evolve. In a Corsican blue tit population, the birds' laying date has significantly advanced over 40 years, and we here determine whether this response is of plastic or evolutionary origin, by comparing the predictions of the breeder's and the Robertson-Price (STS) equations, to the observed genetic changes. We compare the results obtained for two fitness proxies (fledgling and recruitment success), using models accounting for their zero inflation. Because the trait appears heritable and under directional selection, the breeder's equation predicts that genetic changes could drive a significant part of the phenological change observed. We, however, found that fitness proxies and laying date are not genetically correlated. The STS, therefore, predicts no evolution of the breeding time, predicting correctly the absence of trend in breeding values. Our results also emphasize that when investigating selection on a plastic trait under fluctuating selection, part of the fitness-trait phenotypic covariance can be due to within individual covariance. In the case of repeated measurements, splitting within and between individual covariance can shift our perspective on the actual intensity of selection over multiple selection episodes, shedding light on the potential for the trait to evolve.

Influence of reproductive output on divorce rates in polar seabirds

The high occurrence of social monogamy in birds has led to questions about partner fidelity, or the perennial nature of monogamy from one breeding season to another. Despite the evolutionary advantages of partner fidelity, divorce occurs among 95% of bird species. We aimed to describe patterns of divorce and partner fidelity in five seabird species breeding in Arctic and Antarctic regions and investigated the influence of breeding status on pair bond maintenance. For four out of the five species considered, we observed low divorce rates (respectively 1.9%, 3.3%, 2.5%, and 0.0% for Brünnich's guillemot, glaucous gull, Antarctic petrel, and south polar skua), while the divorce rate was much higher (19.1%) for the black-legged kittiwake. For kittiwakes, the divorce rate was lower for pairs that managed to raise their chick to 15 days of age, while the effect of breeding success on divorce in the four other species could not be tested due to the rareness of divorce events. Our results emphasize the potentially large temporal (interannual) variations that should be taken into account in understanding divorce and partner fidelity in seabirds.

From individual to population level: Temperature and snow cover modulate fledging success through breeding phenology in greylag geese (Anser anser)

Local weather conditions may be used as environmental cues by animals to optimize their breeding behaviour, and could be affected by climate change. We measured associations between climate, breeding phenology, and reproductive output in greylag geese (Anser anser) across 29 years (1990-2018). The birds are individually marked, which allows accurate long-term monitoring of life-history parameters for all pairs within the flock. We had three aims: (1) identify climate patterns at a local scale in Upper Austria, (2) measure the association between climate and greylag goose breeding phenology, and (3) measure the relationship between climate and both clutch size and fledging success. Ambient temperature increased 2 °C across the 29-years study period, and higher winter temperature was associated with earlier onset of egg-laying. Using the hatch-fledge ratio, average annual temperature was the strongest predictor for the proportion of fledged goslings per season. There is evidence for an optimum time window for egg-laying (the earliest and latest eggs laid had the lowest fledging success). These findings broaden our understanding of environmental effects and population-level shifts which could be associated with increased ambient temperature and can thus inform future research about the ecological consequences of climate changes and reproductive output in avian systems.

Evolutionary Responses to Warming

Climate change is predicted to dramatically alter biological diversity and distributions, driving extirpations, extinctions, and extensive range shifts across the globe. Warming can also, however, lead to phenotypic or behavioural plasticity, as species adapt to new conditions. Recent genomic research indicates that some species are capable of rapid evolution as selection favours adaptive responses to environmental change and altered or novel niche spaces. New advances are providing mechanistic insights into how temperature might accelerate evolution in the Anthropocene. These discoveries highlight intriguing new research directions - such as using geothermal and polar systems combined with powerful genomic tools - that will help us to understand the processes underpinning adaptive evolution and better project how ecosystems will change in a warming world.

Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts

Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match-mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.

Polyrhythmic foraging and competitive coexistence

The current ecological understanding still does not fully explain how biodiversity is maintained. One strategy to address this issue is to contrast theoretical prediction with real competitive communities where diverse species share limited resources. I present, in this study, a new competitive coexistence theory-diversity of biological rhythms. I show that diversity in activity cycles plays a key role in coexistence of competing species, using a two predator-one prey system with diel, monthly, and annual cycles for predator foraging. Competitive exclusion always occurs without activity cycles. Activity cycles do, however, allow for coexistence. Furthermore, each activity cycle plays a different role in coexistence, and coupling of activity cycles can synergistically broaden the coexistence region. Thus, with all activity cycles, the coexistence region is maximal. The present results suggest that polyrhythmic changes in biological activity in response to the earth's rotation and revolution are key to competitive coexistence. Also, temporal niche shifts caused by environmental changes can easily eliminate competitive coexistence.

Conservation Genomics in a Changing Arctic

Although logistically challenging to study, the Arctic is a bellwether for global change and is becoming a model for questions pertinent to the persistence of biodiversity. Disruption of Arctic ecosystems is accelerating, with impacts ranging from mixing of biotic communities to individual behavioral responses. Understanding these changes is crucial for conservation and sustainable economic development. Genomic approaches are providing transformative insights into biotic responses to environmental change, but have seen limited application in the Arctic due to a series of limitations. To meet the promise of genome analyses, we urge rigorous development of biorepositories from high latitudes to provide essential libraries to improve the conservation, monitoring, and management of Arctic ecosystems through genomic approaches.