One size fits all: Eurasian lynx females share a common optimal litter size

Climatic forcing and individual heterogeneity in a resident mountain bird: legacy data reveal effects on reproductive strategies

Optimization of clutch size and timing of reproduction have substantial effects on lifetime reproductive success in vertebrates, and both individual quality and environmental variation may impact life history strategies. We tested hypotheses related to maternal investment and timing of reproduction, using 17 years (1978-1994) of individual-based life history data on willow ptarmigan (Lagopus l. lagopus, n = 290 breeding females with n = 319 breeding attempts) in central Norway. We analysed whether climatic variation and individual state variables (age and body mass) affected the number of offspring and timing of reproduction, and individual repeatability in strategies. The results suggest that willow ptarmigan share a common optimal clutch size that is largely independent of measured individual states. While we found no clear direct weather effects on clutch size, higher spring temperatures advanced onset of breeding, and early breeding was followed by an increased number of offspring. Warmer springs were positively related to maternal mass, and mass interacted with clutch size in production of hatchlings. Finally, clutch size and timing of reproduction were highly repeatable within individuals, indicating that individual quality guided trade-offs in reproductive effort. Our results demonstrate how climatic forcing and individual heterogeneity in combination influenced life history traits in a resident montane keystone species.

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe

The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was ~10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions.

Habitat characteristics around dens in female brown bears with cubs are density dependent

The mechanisms determining habitat use in animal populations have important implications for population dynamics, conservation, and management. Here, we investigated how an increase in annual numbers of brown bear females with cubs of the year (FCOY) in a growing, yet threatened population, could explain differences in the habitat characteristics around reproductive dens. Habitat characteristics around FCOY dens were compared between a low bear density period (1995–2005) and a period when the population was increasing (2006–2016). We also compared the distance to the nearest breeding area and to all other breeding areas observed during the same year. The results suggested that during the second period, breeding areas were closer to rivers, fruit trees, and anthropogenic sources of disturbance (trails, highways) than in 1995–2005. There were also shorter distances to the closest neighboring breeding area, while the mean distance among FCOY breeding areas increased as the population grew and expanded at the landscape level. These changes may reflect that the best den locations were increasingly occupied (i.e., ideal-despotic distribution), and may be further explained by the avoidance of conspecifics by FCOY in a critical time of the year, when newborn cubs are most vulnerable. We suggest that both density-dependent factors and human-related features of the landscape are crucial to understanding long-term dynamics in the habitat use of a threatened species.

Demography of a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) population within a strictly protected area in Central Europe

Large carnivores promote crucial ecosystem processes but are increasingly threatened by human persecution and habitat destruction. Successful conservation of this guild requires information on long-term population dynamics obtained through demographic surveys. We used camera traps to monitor Eurasian lynx between 2009 and 2018 in a strictly protected area in the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem, located in the core of the distribution of the Bohemian-Bavarian-Austrian lynx population. Thereby, we estimated sex-specific demographic parameters using spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models. Over 48,677 trap nights, we detected 65 unique lynx individuals. Density increased from 0.69 to 1.33 and from 1.09 to 2.35 individuals/100 km2 for open and closed population SCR models, respectively, with corresponding positive population growth rates (mean = 1.06). Estimated yearly sex-specific survival probabilities for the entire monitoring period were high (females 82%, males 90%) and per capita recruitment rate was low (females 12%, males 9%), indicating a low yearly population turnover. We ascertained an average number of recruits of 1.97 and a generation time of 2.64 years when considering resident reproducing females. We confirmed that reproduction in the study area took place successfully every year. Despite the overall increase in local lynx densities, the number of detected family groups remained constant throughout the study period. These results indicated that the strictly protected study area acts as a source for the multi-use landscapes in its surroundings. In this first open population SCR study on lynx, we provide sex-specific demographic parameters that are fundamental information for lynx management in the study area as well as in similar contexts Europe-wide.

Parturition dates in wild Eurasian lynx: evidence of a second oestrus?

Understanding reproductive physiology of a species is important to assess their potential to respond to environmental variation and perturbation of their social system during the mating or pre-mating seasons. We report 175 parturition dates from wild Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Scandinavia. Most lynx birth dates were highly synchronised around a mean of 30th May (SD = 9 days) with 173 of the 175 births ranging from May 2nd to June 30th. We detected two very late births on July 29th and August 15th in the absence of any indication that the females had given birth and lost a litter earlier in the year. We propose that these represent evidence of a second oestrus which is highly unusual in lynx because of their unique reproductive physiology. The rarity of these late season births has implications for lynx demography and social organisation.

Harvest models of small populations of a large carnivore using Bayesian forecasting

Harvesting large carnivores can be a management tool for meeting politically set goals for their desired abundance. However, harvesting carnivores creates its own set of conflicts in both society and among conservation professionals, where one consequence is a need to demonstrate that management is sustainable, evidence-based, and guided by science. Furthermore, because large carnivores often also have high degrees of legal protection, harvest quotas have to be carefully justified and constantly adjusted to avoid damaging their conservation status. We developed a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of Eurasian lynx harvesting in Scandinavia. The model uses data from the annual monitoring of lynx abundance and results from long-term field research on lynx biology, which has provided detailed estimates of key demographic parameters. We used the model to predict the probability that the forecasted population size will be below or above the management objectives when subjected to different harvest quotas. The model presented here informs decision makers about the policy risks of alternative harvest levels. Earlier versions of the model have been available for wildlife managers in both Sweden and Norway to guide lynx harvest quotas and the model predictions showed good agreement with observations. We combined monitoring data with data on vital rates and were able to estimate unobserved additional mortality rates, which are most probably due to poaching. In both countries, the past quota setting strategy suggests that there has been a de facto threshold strategy with increasing proportion, which means that there is no harvest below a certain population size, but above this threshold there is an increasing proportion of the population harvested as the population size increases. The annual assessment of the monitoring results, the use of forecasting models, and a threshold harvest approach to quota setting will all reduce the risk of lynx population sizes moving outside the desired goals. The approach we illustrate could be adapted to other populations of mammals worldwide.

Context dependency of top-down, bottom-up and density-dependent influences on cheetah demography

Research on drivers of demographic rates has mostly focused on top predators and their prey, and comparatively less research has considered the drivers of mesopredator demography. Of those limited studies, most focused on top-down effects of apex predators on mesopredator population dynamics, whereas studies investigating alternative mechanisms are less common. In this study, we tested hypotheses related to top-down, bottom-up and density-dependent regulation of demographic rates in an imperilled mesopredator, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus). We used a 25-year dataset of lion density, cheetah density and prey density from the Mun-Ya-Wana Conservancy in South Africa and assessed the effects of top-down, bottom-up and density-dependent drivers on cheetah survival and reproduction. In contrast to the top-down and bottom-up predictions, both adult and juvenile cheetahs experienced the lowest survival during months with high prey densities and low lion densities. We observed support only for a density-dependent response in juvenile cheetahs, where they had a higher probability of reaching independence during times with low cheetah density and low prey density. We did not identify any strong drivers of litter size. Collectively, our results indicate that high apex predator abundance might not always have negative effects on mesopredator populations, and suggest that context dependency in top-down, bottom-up and density-dependent factors may regulate demographic rates of cheetahs and other mesopredators. Our results highlight the complexities of population-level drivers of cheetah demographic rates and the importance of considering multiple hypotheses of mesopredator population regulation.

Body mass influences maternal allocation more than parity status for a long-lived cervid mother

Mothers should balance the risk and reward of allocating resources to offspring to optimize the reproductive value of both offspring and mother while maximizing lifetime reproductive success by producing high-quality litters. The reproductive restraint hypothesis suggests maternal allocation should peak for prime-aged mothers and be less for younger mothers such that body condition is not diminished to a level that would jeopardize their survival or future reproductive events. We assessed if reproductive tactics varied by maternal body mass and parity status in captive female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) to determine if prime-aged mothers allocate relatively more resources to reproduction than primiparous mothers. Maternal body mass, not parity status, positively affected maternal allocation, with heavier mothers producing both heavy litters and heavy individual offspring. Conversely, maternal body mass alone did not affect litter size, rather the interaction between maternal body mass and parity status positively affected litter size such that maternal body mass displayed a greater effect on litter size for primiparous than multiparous mothers. Our results suggest that heavy white-tailed deer mothers allocate additional resources to current year reproduction, which may be an adaptation allowing mothers to produce high-quality litters and increase their annual reproductive success because survival to the next reproductive attempt is not certain.

Eurasian lynx fitness shows little variation across Scandinavian human-dominated landscapes

Despite extensive research on the ecology and behavioural adaptations of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes, information about the fitness consequences of sharing landscapes is still limited. We assessed the variation in three consecutive components of female fitness: the probability of reproduction, litter size and juvenile survival in relation to environmental and human factors in a solitary carnivore, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), occurring in human-dominated landscapes in Scandinavia. We used demographic data from 57 radio-collared adult females between 1995-2011 (126 radio-years). Overall, the yearly probability of female reproduction was 0.80, mean litter size was 2.34 (range 1-4) and the probability to find a female that reproduced in the spring being accompanied by at least one offspring during the subsequent winter was 0.70. We did not find evidence that food availability was a key factor influencing female fitness. Female lynx may adapt to food availability when establishing their home ranges by adopting an obstinate strategy, ensuring a minimum amount of prey necessary for survival and reproduction even during periods of prey scarcity. In human-dominated landscapes, where sufficient prey are available for lynx, mortality risk may have a larger influence on lynx population dynamics compared to food availability. Our results suggest that lynx population dynamics in human-dominated landscapes may be mainly driven by human impacts on survival.

Forest structure provides the income for reproductive success in a southern population of Canada lynx

Understanding intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of reproductive success is central to advancing animal ecology and characterizing critical habitat. Unfortunately, much of the work examining drivers of reproductive success is biased toward particular groups of organisms (e.g., colonial birds, large herbivores, capital breeders). Long-lived mammalian carnivores that are of conservation concern, solitary, and territorial present an excellent situation to examine intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of reproductive success, yet they have received little attention. Here, we used a Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) data set, from the southern periphery of their range, to determine if reproductive success in a solitary carnivore was consistent with capital or income breeding. We radio-marked and monitored 36 female Canada lynx for 98 lynx years. We evaluated how maternal characteristics and indices of food supply (via forest structure) in core areas influenced variation in body condition and reproductive success. We characterized body condition as mass/length and reproductive success as whether a female produced a litter of kittens for a given breeding season. Consistent with life-history theory, we documented a positive effect of maternal age on body condition and reproductive success. In contrast to predictions of capital breeding, we observed no effect of pre-pregnancy body condition on reproductive success in Canada lynx. However, we demonstrated statistical effects of forest structure on reproductive success in Canada lynx, consistent with predictions of income breeding. The forest characteristics that defined high success included (1) abundant and connected mature forest and (2) intermediate amounts of small-diameter regenerating forest. These attributes are consistent with providing abundant, temporally stable, and accessible prey resources (i.e., snowshoe hares; Lepus americanus) for lynx and reinforce the bottom-up mechanisms influencing Canada lynx populations. Collectively, our results suggest that lynx on the southern range periphery exhibit an income breeding strategy and that forest structure supplies the income important for successful reproduction. More broadly, our insights advance the understanding of carnivore ecology and serve as an important example on integrating long-term field studies with ecological theory to improve landscape management.

Does prey density predict characteristics of primiparity in a solitary and specialized predator, the Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis)?

Age at primiparity is a flexible life-history trait that purportedly responds to changing population dynamics and variable resource abundance. We examined placental scars in yearling Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis (Kerr, 1792)) from the island of Newfoundland and used pregnancy rates and litter sizes to indicate primiparity. We modelled these lynx productivity data with snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) population attributes using seven multiple a priori competing hypotheses. Hare abundance showed peak, decline, and increase phases, and densities based on capture–mark–recapture estimates ranged from 0.11 to 1.19 hares·ha−1. Overall, yearling pregnancy rate was 23.5% and the model with hare abundance fitted alone had the most support. However, surprisingly hare abundance explained little (6%) variation in yearling pregnancy rate. Mean (±SE) litter size was 3.51 ± 0.27. None of our covariate models provided unequivocal support for predicting yearling litter size. We speculate that individuals may exhibit behavioural plasticity such that they can dampen the impact of primary prey abundance on yearling pregnancy rate by exploiting alternate prey. Furthermore, intraspecific social interactions may provide additional insight into the determinants of pregnancy rate in yearling lynx.

Reproductive senescence: new perspectives in the wild

According to recent empirical studies, reproductive senescence, the decline in reproductive success with increasing age, seems to be nearly ubiquitous in the wild. However, a clear understanding of the evolutionary causes and consequences of reproductive senescence is still lacking and requires new and integrative approaches. After identifying the sequential and complex nature of female reproductive senescence, we show that the relative contributions of physiological decline and alterations in the efficiency of parental care to reproductive senescence remain unknown and need to be assessed in the light of current evolutionary theories of ageing. We demonstrate that, although reproductive senescence is generally studied only from the female viewpoint, age-specific female reproductive success strongly depends on male-female interactions. Thus, a reduction in male fertilization efficiency with increasing age has detrimental consequences for female fitness. Lastly, we call for investigations of the role of environmental conditions on reproductive senescence, which could provide salient insights into the underlying sex-specific mechanisms of reproductive success. We suggest that embracing such directions should allow building new bridges between reproductive senescence and the study of sperm competition, parental care, mate choice and environmental conditions.

Ultimate regulation of fecundity in species with precocial young: declining marginal value of offspring with increasing brood size does not explain maximal clutch size in Black Brent geese

Lack 18:125-128 (1967) proposed that clutch size in precocial species was regulated by nutrients available to females during breeding. Drent and Daan 68:225-252 (1980) proposed the individual optimization hypothesis, whereby individual state determines the optimal combination of breeding date and clutch size. Neither hypothesis accounts for variation in nutrients among females at the end of egg laying, strong right truncations in clutch size distributions, or the fact that many species with precocial young are determinate layers. One solution is that there is a maximum clutch size, above which the number of fledged young declines. We manipulated brood size in Black Brent geese to decouple brood size from maternal quality and produce broods larger than the natural maximum. We recaptured marked goslings to assess variation in prefledging survival as a function of brood size and we estimated relative prefledging survival of goslings using a Bayesian hierarchical approach. We considered effects of natural clutch size, brood size and their interaction on probability that we captured goslings at about 4 weeks of age. Prefledging survival declined with increasing brood size ([Formula: see text] = -0.53; 95% CI -0.91 to -0.16), while laid clutch size had little influence on prefledging survival ([Formula: see text] = -0.04; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.32). Despite declining per capita survival with increasing brood size, the most productive brood size was six goslings, which is greater than the typical maximum clutch size of five. Thus, reduced survival in large broods, by itself, is not the sole mechanism that limits maximum clutch size. We suggest elsewhere that incubation limitation and lower residual reproductive value for females tending larger broods may be other mechanisms limiting maximal clutch size in brent.

Intensity of space use reveals conditional sex-specific effects of prey and conspecific density on home range size

Home range (HR) size variation is often linked to resource abundance, with sex differences expected to relate to sex‐specific fitness consequences. However, studies generally fail to disentangle the effects of the two main drivers of HR size variation, food and conspecific density, and rarely consider how their relative influence change over spatiotemporal scales. We used location data from 77 Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) from a 16‐year Scandinavian study to examine HR sizes variation relative to prey and conspecific density at different spatiotemporal scales. By varying the isopleth parameter (intensity of use) defining the HR, we show that sex‐specific effects were conditional on the spatial scale considered. Males had larger HRs than females in all seasons. Females' total HR size declined as prey and conspecific density increased, whereas males' total HR was only affected by conspecific density. However, as the intensity of use within the HR increased (from 90% to 50% isopleth), the relationship between prey density and area showed opposing patterns for females and males; for females, the prey density effect was reduced, while for males, prey became increasingly important. Thus, prey influenced the size of key regions within male HRs, despite total HR size being independent of prey density. Males reduced their HR size during the mating season, likely to remain close to individual females in estrous. Females reduced their HR size postreproduction probably because of movement constrains imposed by dependent young. Our findings highlight the importance of simultaneously considering resources and intraspecific interactions as HR size determinants. We show that sex‐specific demands influence the importance of prey and conspecific density on space use at different spatiotemporal scales. Thus, unless a gradient of space use intensity is examined, factors not related to total HR size might be disregarded despite their importance in determining size of key regions within the HR.