Drivers of Odonata flight timing revealed by natural history collection data

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change ("global change") are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modeled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how these model-projected assemblage changes 2005-2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999-2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005-2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modeled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages' intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.

Drivers of Odonata flight timing revealed by natural history collection data

Global change may cause widespread phenological shifts. But knowledge of the extent and generality of these shifts is limited by the availability of phenological records with sufficiently large spatiotemporal extents. Using North American odonates (damselflies and dragonflies) as a model system, we show how a combination of natural history museum and community science collections, beginning in 1901 and extending through 2020, can be leveraged to better understand phenology. We begin with an analysis of odonate functional traits. Principal coordinate analysis is used to place odonate genera within a three-dimensional trait ordination. From this, we identify seven distinct functional groups and select a single odonate genus to represent each group. Next, we pair the odonate records with a list of environmental covariates, including air temperature and degree days, photoperiod, precipitation, latitude and elevation. An iterative subsampling process is then used to mitigate spatiotemporal sampling bias within the odonate dataset. Finally, we use path analysis to quantify the direct effects of degree days, photoperiod and precipitation on odonate emergence timing, while accounting for indirect effects of latitude, elevation and year. Path models showed that degree days, photoperiod and precipitation each have a significant influence on odonate emergence timing, but degree days have the largest overall effect. Notably, the effect that each covariate has on emergence timing varied among functional groups, with positive relationships observed for some group representatives and negative relationships observed for others. For instance, Calopteryx sp. emerged earlier as degree days increased, while Sympetrum sp. emerged later. Previous studies have linked odonate emergence timing to temperature, photoperiod or precipitation. By using natural history museum and community science data to simultaneously examine all three influences, we show that systems-level understanding of odonate phenology may now be possible.