The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: applications and guidelines

Conservation features of the terrestrial Antarctic Peninsula

Conserving landscapes used by multiple stakeholder groups requires understanding of what each stakeholder values. Here we employed a semi-structured, participatory approach to identify features of value in the terrestrial Antarctic Peninsula related to biodiversity, science and tourism. Stakeholders identified 115 features, ranging from Adélie penguin colonies to sites suitable for snowshoeing tourists. We split the features into seven broad categories: science, tourism, historic, biodiversity, geographic, habitat, and intrinsic features, finding that the biodiversity category contained the most features of any one category, while science stakeholders identified the most features of any stakeholder group. Stakeholders have overlapping interests in some features, particularly for seals and seabirds, indicating that thoughtful consideration of their inclusion in future management is required. Acknowledging the importance of tourism and other social features in Antarctica and ensuring their integration into conservation planning and assessment will increase the likelihood of implementing successful environmental management strategies into the future.

Managing offshore multi-use settings: Use of conceptual mapping to reduce uncertainty of co-locating seaweed aquaculture and wind farms

The offshore Multi-use Setting (MUS) is a concept that aims to co-locate marine industrial activities, including wind farms and aquaculture. MUS is considered an innovative approach to promoting efficiency in space and resource use whilst contributing global policy priorities. However, the impacts of MUS development across social, economic, and environmental domains are uncertain, hindering the commercialisation of the concept. In this study, we initially demonstrate the potential consequences of co-locating seaweed aquaculture and a wind farm as a step towards MUS. Using a hypothetical case study and modified Delphi methodology, 14 subject matter experts predicted potential outcomes across social and environmental objectives. Five Cognitive maps and impact tables of 58 potential consequences were generated based on experts' perspective on co-locating seaweed aquaculture and a wind farm. The findings highlight the potential to exasperate pressures in the area, including those already attributed to wind farm operations, such as species mortality and stakeholder conflict. However, it may also enhance social-ecological conditions, such as resource provisioning and promoting habitat functionality in the region, through the addition of seaweed aquaculture. The cognitive maps demonstrate the complexity of managing MUS implementation, where high degree of variability and uncertainty about the outcomes is present. The findings of this study provide the vital entry point to performing further integrative assessment and modelling approaches, such as probabilistic analysis and simulations, in support of MUS decision-making. The research also strongly recommends alternative strategies in the pursuit of combining seaweed production and wind farms to avoid significant financial (among many other) trade-offs and risks. More broadly, we have found that our approach's ability to visually represent a complex situation while considering multiple objectives could be immensely valuable for other bioeconomy innovations or nature-based solutions. It helps mitigate the potential for expensive investments without a comprehensive evaluation of the associated risks and negative impacts, as necessitated by the principles of sustainability in decision-making.

System's Crisis Resilience as a Societal Crisis: Knowledge Structure and Gaze of the Finnish Health Care System

The crisis resilience of vital social systems is currently the target of constant development efforts in Finland, as their drifting into crisis would weaken societies' functional abilities, safety, and security. This is also the case regarding the Finnish health care system. In an attempt to move beyond existing frameworks of crisis imagination, this article takes an unconventional stance by elucidating endogenous crisis dynamics present in the Finnish health care system. Delphi process was conducted for top experts in Finnish health care and crisis management. With a dissensus-seeking orientation, our aim was to fertilize disagreements among panelists to reveal key vulnerabilities in the health system. Despite our efforts to evoke dissensus, the panelists ended up generating a consensus that aims to protect the underlying assumptions of the health system's knowledge structure. Through inductive analysis of expert discourses, the data was analyzed through our research question "what constitutes a crisis-proof health system and a crisis-prone health system". What is framed as a strength of the system by our panelists, namely the ability to maintain legitimacy, improve efficiency, and guarantee continuity, can still have questionable implications that are left ungrasped. A system's theory approach illustrates how such effects can develop and escalate beyond the reach of social interventions, and thus be predisposed to cause objectionable yet concealed social crises. The discussion illustrates how these endogenous crisis dynamics could be seen to materialize in real-life cases.

Translation of the working alliance inventory short revised into Italian using a Delphi procedure and a forward-backward translation

Introduction

Enhancing treatment adherence, especially for chronic diseases, can be achieved through therapeutic alliance, potentially elevating the quality of care. An instrument to evaluate the therapeutic alliance could be beneficial in routine clinical settings, educational environments, and extensive research efforts at national and European levels. In this study, we translated therapist and patient versions of the Working Alliance Inventory Short Revised (WAI-SR) into Italian.

Methodology

An email-based Delphi method was employed for the English-to-Italian translation, incorporating a forward-backward process. The initial translation team comprised two Italian family physicians proficient in English, a linguist, and a psychiatrist. The forward translation was then reviewed by 18 Italian family physicians through a Delphi process and was subjected to a backward translation by two Italian English teachers. A cultural correspondence was subsequently identified to adjust translations within a national and international framework.

Results

All 18 experts fully engaged in the Delphi process, and consensus was achieved by the second Delphi round. A cultural check checked for discrepancies regarding linguistic consistency with other translations and found no difference.

Conclusion

This Italian translation of the WAI-SR is expected to support Italian family physicians aiming to enhance their clinical practice and therapeutic outcomes. It could also be a valuable tool for Italian medical students to foster therapeutic relationships and improve their communication skills.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents. For example, new sources of hydrogen fuel and changes in deep-sea currents may have profound impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Technological advances that may be positive include benchtop DNA printers and the industrialisation of approaches that can create high-protein food from air, potentially reducing the pressure on land for food production.

How can health technology assessment be improved to optimise access to medicines? Results from a Delphi study in Europe : Better access to medicines through HTA

INTRODUCTION

Access to medicines is a shared goal across healthcare stakeholders. Since health technology assessment (HTA) informs funding decisions, it shapes access to medicines. Despite its wide implementation, significant access variations due to HTA are observed across Europe. This paper elicited the opinions of European stakeholders on how HTA can be improved to facilitate access.

METHODS

A scoping review identified HTA features that influence access to medicines within markets and areas for improvement, while three access dimensions were identified (availability, affordability, timeliness). Using the Delphi method, we elicited the opinions of European stakeholders to validate the literature findings.

RESULTS

Nineteen participants from 14 countries participated in the Delphi panel. Thirteen HTA features that could be improved to optimise access to medicines in Europe were identified. Of these, 11 recorded a positive impact on at least one of the three access dimensions. HTA features had mostly a positive impact on timeliness and a less clear impact on affordability. 'Early scientific advice' and 'clarity in evidentiary requirements' showed a positive impact on all access dimensions. 'Established ways to deal with uncertainty during HTA' could improve medicines' availability and timeliness, while more 'reliance on real-world evidence' could expedite time to market access.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results reiterate that increased transparency during HTA and the decision-making processes is essential; the use of and reliance on new evidence generation such as real-world evidence can optimise the availability of medicines; and better collaborations between regulatory institutions within and between countries are paramount for better access to medicines.

Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean

Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.

The benefits of tourism for rural community development

While the main benefits of rural tourism have been studied extensively, most of these studies have focused on the development of sustainable rural tourism. The role of tourism contributions to rural community development remains unexplored. Little is known about what tourism contribution dimensions are available for policy-makers and how these dimensions affect rural tourism contributions. Without a clear picture and indication of what benefits rural tourism can provide for rural communities, policy-makers might not invest limited resources in such projects. The objectives of this study are threefold. First, we outline a rural tourism contribution model that policy-makers can use to support tourism-based rural community development. Second, we address several methodological limitations that undermine current sustainability model development and recommend feasible methodological solutions. Third, we propose a six-step theoretical procedure as a guideline for constructing a valid contribution model. We find four primary attributes of rural tourism contributions to rural community development; economic, sociocultural, environmental, and leisure and educational, and 32 subattributes. Ultimately, we confirm that economic benefits are the most significant contribution. Our findings have several practical and methodological implications and could be used as policy-making guidelines for rural community development.

What's on the horizon for community-based conservation? Emerging threats and opportunities

Community-based conservation can support livelihoods and biodiversity, while reinforcing local and Indigenous values, cultures, and institutions. Its delivery can help address cross-cutting global challenges, such as climate change, conservation, poverty, and food security. Therefore, understanding trends in community-based conservation is pertinent to setting and implementing global goals. We undertook a horizon scan to prioritize 15 emerging threats and opportunities expected to impact the future effectiveness of community-based conservation. Topics relate to global biodiversity policy; human rights; shifting human geography; inclusion, diversity, equity, and access; conservation finance and income; and economic reforms. Our findings offer guidance on strengthening community-based conservation to achieve global environmental and development goals.

Prediction of the Impact of Land Use and Soil Type on Concentrations of Heavy Metals and Phthalates in Soil Based on Model Simulation

The main objective of this study is to determine the possibility of predicting the impact of land use and soil type on concentrations of heavy metals (HMs) and phthalates (PAEs) in soil based on an artificial neural network model (ANN). Qualitative analysis of HMs was performed with inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP/OES) and Direct Mercury Analyzer. Determination of PAEs was performed with gas chromatography (GC) coupled with a single quadrupole mass spectrometry (MS). An ANN, based on the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) iterative algorithm, for the prediction of HM and PAE concentrations, based on land use and soil type parameters, showed good prediction capabilities (the coefficient of determination (r²) values during the training cycle for HM concentration variables were 0.895, 0.927, 0.885, 0.813, 0.883, 0.917, 0.931, and 0.883, respectively, and for PAEs, the concentration variables were 0.950, 0.974, 0.958, 0.974, and 0.943, respectively). The results of this study indicate that HM and PAE concentrations, based on land use and soil type, can be predicted using ANN.

A methodology for using a multilevel perspective framework to analyze complex systems

Misalignment between the different levels of complex societal systems (e.g. socio-technical, socio-ecological) are often a barrier to transitioning these systems toward more sustainable behavior. One way to understand alignment is through the Multilevel Perspective Theory of sustainable transitions in sociotechnical systems (MLP) which posits that when a regime (the current “ways of doing” something) exhibits behavior that negatively impacts its surrounding economic, social and environmental landscape, that landscape will exert pressure on the regime to change. This in turn opens the window of opportunity for niche developments such as novel technology adoption or policy changes. Therefore, understanding the relationships between the landscape, the regime and emerging niches can help align these different levels of perspective to facilitate a successful transition toward more sustainable practices. This paper describes a methodology for mapping complex systems such as agricultural systems based on MLP theory, and incorporates a fourth “user” level (e.g. the farm) into this multilevel framework (MLP+ F). The methodology is illustrated with a case study example of North Carolina’s lagoon and sprayfield swine waste management regime. By integrating well-established techniques for data collection and analysis, the case study engages a diverse panel of local experts through a modified Delphi approach to identify the relevant concepts and their cause-effect relationships for the current regime. These concepts and relationships are then categorized and organized into a multilevel, multi-perspective conceptual model using fuzzy cognitive maps. The conceptual model identifies how stakeholder groups align in their perception of the system, and provides a foundation for future qualitative, semi-quantitative, and visual analyses of the system and how it can be changed through alternative scenarios. Although this methodology was initially developed for agricultural applications, it has potential for application to other complex societal issues where understanding stakeholder alignment and the potential for sustainability transitions through change are needed.

A novel expert-driven methodology to develop thermal response curves and project habitat thermal suitability for cetaceans under a changing climate

Over the last decades, global warming has contributed to changes in marine species composition, abundance and distribution, in response to changes in oceanographic conditions such as temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation. Experimentally derived thermal limits, which are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges, have been used to assess variations in species distribution patterns. However, such experiments cannot be undertaken on free-swimming large marine predators with wide-range distribution, like cetaceans. An alternative approach is to elicit expert's knowledge to derive species' thermal suitability and assess their thermal responses, something that has never been tested in these taxa. We developed and applied a methodology based on expert-derived thermal suitability curves and projected future responses for several species under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach with ten cetacean species currently present in the biogeographic area of Macaronesia (North Atlantic) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, until 2050. Overall, increases in annual thermal suitability were found for Balaenoptera edeni, Globicephala macrorhynchus, Mesoplodon densirostris, Physeter macrocephalus, Stenella frontalis, Tursiops truncatus and Ziphius cavirostris. Conversely, our results indicated a decline in thermal suitability for B. physalus, Delphinus delphis, and Grampus griseus. Our study reveals potential responses in cetaceans' thermal suitability, and potentially in other highly mobile and large predators, and it tests this method's applicability, which is a novel application for this purpose and group of species. It aims to be a cost-efficient tool to support conservation managers and practitioners.

Freshwater mussel conservation: A global horizon scan of emerging threats and opportunities

We identified 14 emerging and poorly understood threats and opportunities for addressing the global conservation of freshwater mussels over the next decade. A panel of 17 researchers and stakeholders from six continents submitted a total of 56 topics that were ranked and prioritized using a consensus-building Delphi technique. Our 14 priority topics fell into five broad themes (autecology, population dynamics, global stressors, global diversity, and ecosystem services) and included understanding diets throughout mussel life history; identifying the drivers of population declines; defining metrics for quantifying mussel health; assessing the role of predators, parasites, and disease; informed guidance on the risks and opportunities for captive breeding and translocations; the loss of mussel-fish co-evolutionary relationships; assessing the effects of increasing surface water changes; understanding the effects of sand and aggregate mining; understanding the effects of drug pollution and other emerging contaminants such as nanomaterials; appreciating the threats and opportunities arising from river restoration; conserving understudied hotspots by building local capacity through the principles of decolonization; identifying appropriate taxonomic units for conservation; improved quantification of the ecosystem services provided by mussels; and understanding how many mussels are enough to provide these services. Solutions for addressing the topics ranged from ecological studies to technological advances and socio-political engagement. Prioritization of our topics can help to drive a proactive approach to the conservation of this declining group which provides a multitude of important ecosystem services.

A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales. Issues such as submerged artificial light fisheries and accelerating upper ocean currents could have profound negative impacts on marine or coastal ecosystems. We also identified potentially positive technological advances, including energy production and storage, improved fertilisation methods, and expansion of biodegradable materials. If effectively managed, these technologies could realise future benefits for biological diversity.

The Perception of the National Traceability Platform among Small-Scale Tea Farmers in Typical Agricultural Areas in Central China

As one of the key technologies to ensure the safety of agricultural products, the national traceability platform is being widely promoted in China. However, it has not yet been widely adopted among farmers, especially small-scale farmers. Farmers are both producers and direct participants in the traceability of agricultural products. Their perception directly affects the effectiveness of the promotion of the national traceability platform. This study explores the perception of the national traceability platform among small-scale tea farmers in typical agricultural areas in central China. This research employed Q methodology, an approach that integrates both qualitative and quantitative data allowing individuals' subjective understandings of a specific topic to be studied. The Q-sort procedure was performed in the field with 16 small-scale tea farmers. Next, Q-factor analyses were conducted using the Ken-Q analysis. The results show that small-scale tea farmers have different perceptions of the national traceability platform. Their main characteristics are active participation, resistant participation, risk aversion, and being driven by pressure. These four categories covered 52% of the perceived variance. Meanwhile, there is also a degree of internal consistency in the perception of small-scale tea farmers. Specifically, they are all concerned that participating in the national traceability platform may increase the cost and risk of cultivation and that it is difficult to obtain support from agricultural technicians. Therefore, understanding the perceptions of tea farmers of the national traceability platform is the premise for formulating effective promotion policies. Our research sheds light on the decision-making mechanisms for small-scale tea farmers to participate in national traceability platforms, further expanding the scope of current research on farmer behavior. This research has reference significance for promoting national traceability platforms in China and other countries around the world.

Identification of potential welfare and survival indicators for stranded cetaceans through international, interdisciplinary expert opinion

Management of live cetacean strandings generally focuses on refloating animals, yet there is a lack of scientific data to inform decision-making. Valid indicators that are practical to measure are needed to assess welfare status and survival likelihood for stranded cetaceans. The Delphi method was applied to gather international and interdisciplinary expert opinion to provide face validity to potential indicators of stranded cetacean welfare and survival likelihood. Two online questionnaires were conducted. In the first questionnaire these experts identified potential indicators of stranded cetacean welfare and survival likelihood. These indicators were subsequently scored by the same experts in questionnaire two, based on their value for assessing welfare/survival likelihood and being practical to measure. Indicators considered valuable and practical for assessing welfare and survival likelihood at strandings included animal-based indices of body and skin condition, signs of physical trauma, respiration rate and various behaviours. Resource-/management-based indicators related mainly to human intervention and should be correlated with animal-based indices to provide relevant evaluations. Importantly, inextricable links between welfare and survival for stranded cetaceans are emphasized, with 90% of indicators being similar for both. Investigations into these indicators should be conducted to develop a practical, science-based assessment framework to inform decision-making during stranding events.

A global horizon scan for urban evolutionary ecology

Research on the evolutionary ecology of urban areas reveals how human-induced evolutionary changes affect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services. In a rapidly urbanizing world imposing many selective pressures, a time-sensitive goal is to identify the emergent issues and research priorities that affect the ecology and evolution of species within cities. Here, we report the results of a horizon scan of research questions in urban evolutionary ecology submitted by 100 interdisciplinary scholars. We identified 30 top questions organized into six themes that highlight priorities for future research. These research questions will require methodological advances and interdisciplinary collaborations, with continued revision as the field of urban evolutionary ecology expands with the rapid growth of cities.

Implementing a combined Delphi and Focus Group qualitative methodology in Nexus research designs—The case of the WEFE Nexus in Apokoronas, Crete

In recent years, researchers and policymakers have emphasised the importance of understanding the complex relationships between Water, Energy, Food and Ecosystems (WEFE). The primary reason for capturing these complexities is to understand how decisions made in the water, food and energy sectors can affect one another. Crucially, biodiversity and ecosystem services (E) play a mediating role in these relationships by making material and non-material contributions to all other sectors (W, E, F). The Nexus approach has been widely used for capturing these interdependencies and identifying opportunities for increasing efficiency, reducing trade-offs and building synergies for sustainable resource use across the WEFE nodes. One challenge in using this framework is the need to harmonise the technical and managerial dimensions of the WEFE interlinkages with the perceptions and priorities of local populations directly involved in the use and management of resources. This paper presents a methodological framework that seeks to integrate the perspectives of experts, practitioners and local stakeholders on the WEFE Nexus through the combined application of the Delphi and Focus Group methods. In this paper, the municipality of Apokoronas in Crete, Greece has served as the case in point. The combined framework allowed us to explore the Nexus understanding at the local level and was instrumental in the identification of initiatives for more integrated resource management. The triangulation of results captured the differences in priorities between practitioners and the local community at large, but also, more specifically, it pointed to discrepancies within groups and across WEFE sectors. The outcomes of this paper demonstrate that awareness and learning play a central role in Nexus actions to overcome conflicts and perceived inequalities, and to internalise solutions. The inclusion of the ecosystems node in the traditional WEF Nexus encouraged participants to contemplate the pivotal role of ecosystems in supporting the rest of the WEF sectors.

A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems.

Integrative Sustainability Analysis of European Pig Farms: Development of a Multi-Criteria Assessment Tool

Societal interest in all aspects of sustainability has increased. Therefore, pig farmers need to be aware of their strengths and weaknesses in all dimensions of sustainability: economy, environment, social wellbeing, and animal health and welfare. Our aim was to describe and critically discuss the development of a sustainability assessment tool for pig farms and to evaluate its suitability by applying it to 63 European pig farms (13 breeding, 27 breeding-to-finishing, and 23 finishing farms). The multi-criteria assessment tool was developed in several steps (the selection and scaling of indicators and their aggregation and weighting) in order to summarise the indicators into subtheme and theme scores. The indicators contributing the most to the subtheme/theme scores were identified and discussed in order to evaluate the procedure of the development. For example, some indicators, such as Ecological compensation area, Fairness of prices, and Tail docking, for which farms were scored low, were also identified as “real world problems” in other studies. For other sustainability aspects with low performance, the threshold might have been set too ambitiously, e.g., for Number of sows per annual working unit. Furthermore, to analyse the suitability of the tool, we assessed the best and worst median theme scores (good and poor performances) for each dimension, as well as the variability of the performances of the farms within the themes. Some themes were found to be moderate, such as Pig comfort, Biodiversity, or Resilience, whereas others were found to be good, e.g., Water and the Human–animal relationship, as well as several themes of the social wellbeing dimension. Overall, the sustainability tool provides a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of pig production. Furthermore, this publication contributes to both the theory (development of a robust sustainability tool) and the practice (provision of a tool to assess and benchmark the sustainability on farms). As a next step, a sensitivity analysis should be performed, and the tool should be applied for further development.

Fundamental Concepts, Knowledge Gaps and Key Concerns Relating to Welfare and Survival of Stranded Cetaceans

Wildlife management can influence animal welfare and survival, although both are often not explicitly integrated into decision making. This study explores fundamental concepts and key concerns relating to the welfare and survival of stranded cetaceans. Using the Delphi method, the opinions of an international, interdisciplinary expert panel were gathered, regarding the characterisation of stranded cetacean welfare and survival likelihood, knowledge gaps and key concerns. Experts suggest that stranded cetacean welfare should be characterised based on interrelated aspects of animals’ biological function, behaviour, and mental state and the impacts of human interventions. The characterisation of survival likelihood should reflect aspects of stranded animals’ biological functioning and behaviour as well as a 6-month post-re-floating survival marker. Post-release monitoring was the major knowledge gap for survival. Welfare knowledge gaps related to diagnosing internal injuries, interpreting behavioural and physiological parameters, and euthanasia decision making. Twelve concerns were highlighted for both welfare and survival likelihood, including difficulty breathing and organ compression, skin damage and physical traumas, separation from conspecifics, and suffering and stress due to stranding and human intervention. These findings indicate inextricable links between perceptions of welfare state and the likely survival of stranded cetaceans and demonstrate a need to integrate welfare science alongside conservation biology to achieve effective, ethical management at strandings.

A framework to integrate innovations in invasion science for proactive management

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a rising threat to biodiversity, national security, and regional economies, with impacts in the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars annually. Proactive or predictive approaches guided by scientific knowledge are essential to keeping pace with growing impacts of invasions under climate change. Although the rapid development of diverse technologies and approaches has produced tools with the potential to greatly accelerate invasion research and management, innovation has far outpaced implementation and coordination. Technological and methodological syntheses are urgently needed to close the growing implementation gap and facilitate interdisciplinary collaboration and synergy among evolving disciplines. A broad review is necessary to demonstrate the utility and relevance of work in diverse fields to generate actionable science for the ongoing invasion crisis. Here, we review such advances in relevant fields including remote sensing, epidemiology, big data analytics, environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling, genomics, and others, and present a generalized framework for distilling existing and emerging data into products for proactive IAS research and management. This integrated workflow provides a pathway for scientists and practitioners in diverse disciplines to contribute to applied invasion biology in a coordinated, synergistic, and scalable manner.

Welfare Assessment Tools in Zoos: From Theory to Practice

Zoos are increasingly implementing formalized animal welfare assessment programs to allow monitoring of welfare over time, as well as to aid in resource prioritization. These programs tend to rely on assessment tools that incorporate resource-based and observational animal-focused measures. A narrative review of the literature was conducted to bring together recent studies examining welfare assessment methods in zoo animals. A summary of these methods is provided, with advantages and limitations of the approaches presented. We then highlight practical considerations with respect to implementation of these tools into practice, for example scoring schemes, weighting of criteria, and innate animal factors for consideration. It is concluded that there would be value in standardizing guidelines for development of welfare assessment tools since zoo accreditation bodies rarely prescribe these. There is also a need to develop taxon or species-specific assessment tools to complement more generic processes and more directly inform welfare management.

Can prior informed consent create virtuous cycle between biodiversity conservation and genetic resources utilization?

This study attempted to predict the effectiveness of prior informed consent (PIC) as a mechanism under the Nagoya Protocol (NP) through the case of Japan, a developed country with a wealth of genetic biodiversity. The NP to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims at creating a virtuous cycle between biodiversity conservation and the utilization of genetic resources through fair and equitable benefit sharing. As PIC is a crucial component of the NP for promoting fair and equitable sharing, this study investigated whether introducing PIC creates a virtuous cycle. Considering the limitations of empirical data, this study adopted a policy Delphi comprising experts in an iterative group communication process that used consecutive questionnaires to reveal diverse issues as input for policymaking. We identified six related issues that were evaluated for the case of introduction and three for the case of no introduction of PIC. Their relative importance as a policy concern was measured through best-worst scaling to narrow down policy-relevant issues. This study revealed that contrary to the NP's intent, the overall contribution to the virtuous cycle is limited. In designing PIC mechanisms, policymakers must pay particular attention to bequest and research and development. This study identified three paths through which the negative impacts on research and development further negatively affect bequest, that is, slackening the identification of important genetic resources and ecosystems to conserve, disincentivizing biodiversity conservation for genetic resource use, and dampening ex-situ conservation efforts.

Prioritizing Beneficial Management Practices for Species at Risk in Agricultural Lands

Agricultural expansion and intensification are major drivers of ecosystem degradation and loss of biodiversity around the world. Countries are relying on protected areas to conserve habitats and prevent species decline, but these are either too few, too small, or too disconnected to capture and protect the needs of species at risk (SAR). Privately owned and managed lands and agricultural producers are increasingly needed to assist with habitat conservation and SAR recovery. Uptake of environmentally beneficial management practices (BMPs) by producers is often hindered by the lack of awareness of the needs of SAR and of the contribution they can make to their habitats, an actual or perceived negative economic and operational impact of the necessary management changes, the fear of losing management control over their land, and mistrust toward public agencies. We present an eight-step model framework that allows agricultural producers to privately determine the potential SAR occurring in a land parcel of interest and to identify and prioritize mutually compatible and outcome-oriented BMPs relevant to these species. In Alberta, Canada, the framework resulted in the development of a confidential self-served online extension tool tailored to a typical farm-level management unit, and to the geographical and ecological context of the operation. We provide a case study using a land parcel from the agricultural region of Alberta to illustrate the model and the associated tool. This novel approach can alleviate producers concerns, promote uptake of BMPs, and foster voluntary stewardship of SAR habitats on privately owned or managed lands.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2022

We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues.

Developing a Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Coastal City Sustainability, Mitigation, and Adaptation: A Case Study of Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia

Coastal hazards are an urgent issue of global concern considering the increasing population pressure in coastal regions, retreating coastlines, and rising seawater levels. Here we demonstrate the process of assessing the vulnerability of a coastal urban environment using the case of Kuala Terengganu, a coastal town in Malaysia, and evaluating the potential social, environmental, and economic impacts. Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to environmental, climatic, and non-climate impacts on coastal city population growth and communities. We address these uncertainties by combining a Delphi-Analytical Hierarchy Process (Delphi-AHP) model and Geographic Information System (GIS)tools to determine mitigation and adaptation probabilities as part of a Coastal City Vulnerability Assessment. We conclude by presenting calculations of the short- and long-term suitability for land use and recommending hazard mitigation measures to equip city planners and decision-makers in evaluating hazards and potential impacts on coastal city areas.

Climate change vulnerability of cetaceans in Macaronesia: Insights from a trait-based assessment

Over the last decades global warming has caused an increase in ocean temperature, acidification and oxygen loss which has led to changes in nutrient cycling and primary production affecting marine species at multiple trophic levels. While knowledge about the impacts of climate change in cetacean's species is still scarce, practitioners and policymakers need information about the species at risk to guide the implementation of conservation measures. To assess cetacean's vulnerability to climate change in the biogeographic region of Macaronesia, we adapted the Marine Mammal Climate Vulnerability Assessment (MMCVA) method and applied it to 21 species management units using an expert elicitation approach. Results showed that over half (62%) of the units assessed presented Very High (5 units) or High (8 units) vulnerability scores. Very High vulnerability scores were found in archipelago associated units of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) and common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), namely in the Canary Islands and Madeira, as well as Risso's dolphins (Grampus griseus) in the Canary Islands. Overall, certainty scores ranged from Very High to Moderate for 67% of units. Over 50% of units showed a high potential for distribution, abundance and phenology changes as a response to climate change. With this study we target current and future information needs of conservation managers in the region, and guide research and monitoring efforts, while contributing to the improvement and validation of trait-based vulnerability approaches under a changing climate.

Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Pig Farms in Selected European Countries: Combining LCA and Key Performance Indicators for Biodiversity Assessment

The aim of this study was to combine Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) with a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) assessment focusing on biodiversity in order to examine the environmental impacts of different pig farm types (13 breeding, 23 finishing and 27 breeding-to-finishing farms) in seven European countries. In addition, the relationship between environmental impacts and selected farm management characteristics was explored. Fossil energy depletion (FED), global warming (GWP), acidification (AP) as well as marine (MEP) and fresh water (FEP) eutrophication potential were assessed by an attributional LCA and expressed per kilogram body mass net sold (BMNS). In addition, the potential biodiversity performance of all crop-livestock farms within the sample (n = 56) was evaluated with a KPI assessment of biodiversity-related field management characteristics. We found no relationship between LCA results and biodiversity scores (KPI). LCA and biodiversity performance varied more within than across farm types (breeding, finishing, breeding-to-finishing). For example, the GWP expressed per kg BMNS of the breeding unit of breeding-to-finishing farms was on average (median) 2.77 (range: 1.40–4.78) and of breeding farms 2.57 (range: 1.91–3.23) kg CO2-eq. The average (median) biodiversity theme score for breeding farms was 51% (range: 36–70%), for breeding-to-finishing farms 38% (range: 30–68%) and for finishing farms 43% (range: 28–67%). Several farm management characteristics (e.g., FCR, productivity, proportion of solid manure) correlated with all/some LCA results. Biodiversity performance depended especially on KPIs related to ecological focus areas, fertiliser management and GMO crops. The large range regarding environmental performance in both LCA and KPI assessment across farm types indicates that farm-specific improvement measures should be implemented to enhance overall environmental sustainability on farm. In conclusion, combining LCA with KPI assessment provides a more comprehensive environmental impact assessment of pig farms.

A global-scale expert assessment of drivers and risks associated with pollinator decline

Pollinator decline has attracted global attention and substantial efforts are underway to respond through national pollinator strategies and action plans. These policy responses require clarity on what is driving pollinator decline and what risks it generates for society in different parts of the world. Using a formal expert elicitation process, we evaluated the relative regional and global importance of eight drivers of pollinator decline and ten consequent risks to human well-being. Our results indicate that global policy responses should focus on reducing pressure from changes in land cover and configuration, land management and pesticides, as these were considered very important drivers in most regions. We quantify how the importance of drivers and risks from pollinator decline, differ among regions. For example, losing access to managed pollinators was considered a serious risk only for people in North America, whereas yield instability in pollinator-dependent crops was classed as a serious or high risk in four regions but only a moderate risk in Europe and North America. Overall, perceived risks were substantially higher in the Global South. Despite extensive research on pollinator decline, our analysis reveals considerable scientific uncertainty about what this means for human society.

Identification of Animal-Based Welfare Indicators in Captive Reptiles: A Delphi Consultation Survey

There is an increasing focus on evidence-based welfare assessment by animal care staff in zoos, along with a strong interest in animal welfare by the zoo-visiting public, to the extent that this can influence their choice of institutions to visit. Regulatory oversight of animal welfare standards continues to strengthen across many jurisdictions. Zoos are increasingly formalizing their practices with the development and refinement of evidence-based welfare assessment tools. There has been a drive for welfare assessment tools to comprise both resource-based and animal-based measures. However, animal-based indicators are not always well characterized, in terms of their nature and whether they infer a positive or negative affective state. This is especially so for reptiles, which are often considered behaviorally inexpressive and are under-researched. In this study, a Delphi consultation approach was used to gather expert opinion on the suitability of potential animal-based indicators of welfare for inclusion in a welfare assessment tool across four families of reptiles: Agamidae, Chelidae, Pythonidae, and Testudinidae. Two rounds of online surveys were conducted eliciting responses from a global group of professionals who work with reptiles. In the first survey, respondents were provided with an author-derived list of potential animal-based indicators for consideration of their validity and practicality as welfare indicators. The indicators were refined for the second survey including only those indicators that were considered valid or practical on the first survey (≥4 on a 5-point Likert scale), and that achieved ≥70% consensus amongst experts. In the second survey, respondents were asked to re-evaluate the reliability and practicality of the indicators and to rank them on these facets. Eight to ten assessment indicators for each family of reptiles were identified from Survey 2. These indicators were often health related, for example, presence of oculo-nasal discharge or wounds. However, some true behavioral indicators were identified, such as showing species-specific interest and alertness. These indicators should now be incorporated into taxon-tailored welfare assessment tools for trial and validation in captive reptile populations. This study provides a next step towards developing reptile-specific animal welfare assessment tools for these often-overlooked animals.

Congruence between the prioritisation of conservation problems at the local and national scale: an evaluation by environmental scientists in Poland

The anthropogenic pressure on the environment depends on the spatial scale. It is crucial to prioritise conservation actions at different spatial scales to be cost-efficient. Using horizon scanning with the Delphi technique, we asked what the most important conservation problems are in Poland at local and national scales. Twenty-six participants, PhD students, individually identified conservation issues important at the local and national scales. Each problem was then scored and classified into broader categories during the round discussions. Text mining, cross-sectional analyses, and frequency tests were used to compare the context, importance scores, and frequency of identified problems between the two scales, respectively. A total of 115 problems were identified at the local scale and 122 at the national scale. Among them, 30 problems were identical for both scales. Importance scores were higher for national than local problems; however, this resulted from different sets of problems identified at the two scales. Problems linked to urbanisation, education, and management were associated with the local scale. Problems related to policy, forestry, and consumerism were more frequent at the national scale. An efficient conservation policy should be built hierarchically (e.g. introducing adaptive governance), implementing solutions at a national scale with the flexibility to adjust for local differences and to address the most pressing issues.

Development of best practices for more holistic assessments of carrying capacity of aquaculture

Carrying Capacity (CC) has emerged as a potential tool to sustainably manage human activities such as aquaculture. However, interdisciplinary and integrated frameworks for holistic CC assessments are still missing. The goal of this study was to generate expert consensus on best evaluative practices for holistic CC assessments of ocean-based salmon aquaculture. To achieve this goal, a 3-round Delphi study was conducted with 21 aquaculture and carrying capacity experts from around the world. Experts emphasized that the holistic CC process should i) engage all stakeholders in the process, ii) consider the combination of social, political, ecological, and economic aspects, iii) respond to changes over time, iv) consider multiple spatial and temporal scales, and v) be understandable and clear to all stakeholders involved. Furthermore, the expert panel emphasized the need for a cyclical and dynamic process that allows for the incorporation of feedback in the planning stages, embracing adaptive management. Due to the early stages of truly holistic assessments, the experts recognized challenges related to knowledge uncertainties and lack of approaches to integrate socio-economic data with ecological and physical data, potential conflicts arising from a multi-stakeholder process, and ill-equipped governance structures. The proposed guidelines and framework could help address some of the conceptual and procedural barriers to implementing holistic assessments into decision-making and may position CC as a useful decision-support tool for governments seeking sustainable aquaculture management.

A major increase in oocyte cryopreservation cycles in the USA, Australia and New Zealand since 2010 is highlighted by younger women but a need for standardized data collection

STUDY QUESTION

What are the cohort trends of women undergoing oocyte cryopreservation (OC)?

SUMMARY ANSWER

There has been a dramatic increase in OC cycles undertaken each year since 2010, and the demographics of women accessing OC has shifted to a younger age group, but so far very few women have returned to use their cryopreserved oocytes in treatments.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Although OC, as a method of fertility preservation, is offered around the world, global data are lacking on who is accessing OC, who is returning to thaw oocytes and whether these trends are changing.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A trinational retrospective cohort study was performed of 31 191 OC cycles and 972 oocyte thaw (OT) cycles undertaken in the USA (2010-2016) and 3673 OC and 517 OT cycles undertaken in Australia/New Zealand (Aus/NZ; 2010-2015).

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Data were obtained from the USA Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology (SART) national registry and the Australian and New Zealand Assisted Reproduction Database (ANZARD). De-identified data were requested on all autologous oocyte freeze-all cycles and all cycles where autologous oocytes were thawed to be used in a treatment cycle for the time periods of interest.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

In both the USA and Aus/NZ, there has been a dramatic rise in the number of OC cycles performed each year (+880% in the USA from 2010 to 2016 and +311% in Aus/NZ from 2010 to 2015). Across both regions, most women undergoing OC were aged in their late 30s, but the average age decreased over time (USA: 36.7 years vs 34.7 years in 2010 and 2016, respectively). The number of women returning for thaw cycles was low (USA: 413 in 2016, Aus/NZ: 141 in 2015) and most thaw cycles (47%) across both regions involved oocytes that were frozen for <6 months. In the USA, a higher proportion of cycles resulted in a live birth when only thawed oocytes were used, compared to cycles that combined thawed oocytes with fresh oocytes (25% vs 11%, respectively; P < 0.001). Age at retrieval influenced live birth rate in the USA; 38% of thaw cycles started in women who stored oocytes when aged ≤35 years resulted in a live birth, whereas only 16% resulted in a live birth for women who stored oocytes when aged ≥36 years. Similar data were unobtainable from Aus/NZ.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

There were limitations associated with both the SART and ANZARD data outputs received. The format in which the ANZARD data were provided, and the inconsistencies seen amongst cycle reporting in the SART dataset, restricted data interpretation. For example, both datasets did not provide a clear indication as to why women were undergoing OC and it was not possible to accurately calculate duration of storage for thaw cycles in the USA. We also did not obtain details on embryo quality from either database and acknowledge that embryo quality and subsequent outcome (embryo freezing or discard) would be of interest, especially when considering the efficacy of OC.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The data show that there is widespread demand for OC, and it is increasingly undertaken by younger women; however, the limitations encountered in the dataset support the need for a shift to a more uniform approach to data collection and presentation by large databases, worldwide.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study received funding from the Fertility Society of Australia to support the ANZARD data extraction. M.J. is supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship stipend. The authors declare no competing interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

The future for Mediterranean wetlands: 50 key issues and 50 important conservation research questions

Wetlands are critically important for biodiversity and human wellbeing, but face a range of challenges. This is especially true in the Mediterranean region, where wetlands support endemic and threatened species and remain integral to human societies, but have been severely degraded in recent decades. Here, in order to raise awareness of future challenges and opportunities for Mediterranean wetlands, and to inform proactive research and management, we identified (a) 50 key issues that might affect Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050, and (b) 50 important research questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on the conservation of Mediterranean wetlands between 2020 and 2050. We gathered ideas through an online survey and review of recent literature. A diverse assessment panel prioritised ideas through an iterative, anonymised, Delphi-like process of scoring, voting and discussion. The prioritised issues included some that are already well known but likely to have a large impact on Mediterranean wetlands in the next 30 years (e.g. the accumulation of dams and reservoirs, plastic pollution and weak governance), and some that are currently overlooked in the context of Mediterranean wetlands (e.g. increasing desalination capacity and development of antimicrobial resistance). Questions largely focused on how best to carry out conservation interventions, or understanding the impacts of threats to inform conservation decision-making. This analysis will support research, policy and practice related to environmental conservation and sustainable development in the Mediterranean, and provides a model for similar analyses elsewhere in the world.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-020-01743-1.

A global horizon scan of the future impacts of robotics and autonomous systems on urban ecosystems

Technology is transforming societies worldwide. A major innovation is the emergence of robotics and autonomous systems (RAS), which have the potential to revolutionize cities for both people and nature. Nonetheless, the opportunities and challenges associated with RAS for urban ecosystems have yet to be considered systematically. Here, we report the findings of an online horizon scan involving 170 expert participants from 35 countries. We conclude that RAS are likely to transform land use, transport systems and human-nature interactions. The prioritized opportunities were primarily centred on the deployment of RAS for the monitoring and management of biodiversity and ecosystems. Fewer challenges were prioritized. Those that were emphasized concerns surrounding waste from unrecovered RAS, and the quality and interpretation of RAS-collected data. Although the future impacts of RAS for urban ecosystems are difficult to predict, examining potentially important developments early is essential if we are to avoid detrimental consequences but fully realize the benefits.

Clair C, Coristine L, Higgs E, Smith R, Pellatt M, Beaty C, Cheskey E, Cooke SJ, Crawford L, Davis R, Forbes G, Gadallah F(Z, Kendall P, Mandrak N, Moola F, Parker S, Quayle J, Ray JC, Richardson K, Smith K, Snider J, Smol JP, Sutherland WJ, Vallillee A, White L, Woodley A. Emerging issues for protected and conserved areas in Canada

Horizon scanning is increasingly used in conservation to systematically explore emerging policy and management issues. We present the results of a horizon scan of issues likely to impact management of Canadian protected and conserved areas over the next 5–10 years. Eighty-eight individuals participated, representing a broad community of academics, government and nongovernment organizations, and foundations, including policymakers and managers of protected and conserved areas. This community initially identified 187 issues, which were subsequently triaged to 15 horizon issues by a group of 33 experts using a modified Delphi technique. Results were organized under four broad categories: ( i) emerging effects of climate change in protected and conserved areas design, planning, and management (i.e., large-scale ecosystem changes, species translocation, fire regimes, ecological integrity, and snow patterns); ( ii) Indigenous governance and knowledge systems (i.e., Indigenous governance and Indigenous knowledge and Western science); ( iii) integrated conservation approaches across landscapes and seascapes (i.e., connectivity conservation, integrating ecosystem values and services, freshwater planning); and ( iv) early responses to emerging cumulative, underestimated, and novel threats (i.e., management of cumulative impacts, declining insect biomass, increasing anthropogenic noise, synthetic biology). Overall, the scan identified several emerging issues that require immediate attention to effectively reduce threats, respond to opportunities, and enhance preparedness and capacity to react.