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Ameca EI, Nie Y, Wu R, Mittermeier RA, Foden W, Wei F. Identifying protected areas in biodiversity hotspots at risk from climate and human-induced compound events for conserving threatened species. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 938:173192. [PMID: 38761951 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2023] [Revised: 03/09/2024] [Accepted: 05/11/2024] [Indexed: 05/20/2024]
Abstract
Anthropogenic pressure in areas of biodiversity importance erodes the integrity of the ecosystems they harbour, making features of biodiversity less buffered against extreme climatic events. We define the combination of these disturbances as compound events. We assessed compound event risk in protected areas (PAs) applying a spatial framework guided by criteria and quantitative thresholds associated with exposure to cyclones, drought, and intense human pressure. This assessment was used in a relational matrix to classify PAs with different risk of compound event occurrence. We identified PAs of higher conservation concern by quantifying the extent of human pressure in their surrounding landscape while harbouring large numbers of threatened vertebrate species. Of the 39,694 PAs assessed, very high risk of compound events was determined for 6965 PAs (17.5 %) related to cyclones and human pressure (mainly island hotspots), 6367 PAs (16 %) related to droughts and human pressure (island and continental hotspots), and 2031 PAs (5 %) to cyclones, drought and human pressure (mainly in island hotspots). From the subset of 2031 PAs assessed at very high risk, we identified 239 PAs of higher conservation concern distributed predominantly in the Caribbean Islands, Japan, North America Coastal Plain, Philippines, and Southwest Australia. Our work highlights PAs in the biodiversity hotspots where high risk of compound event occurrence poses a greater threat to species. We encourage researchers to adapt and apply this framework across other globally significant sites for conserving biodiversity to identify high risk-prone areas, and prevent further biodiversity decline.
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Affiliation(s)
- E I Ameca
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology & Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science & Ecological Engineering, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Climate Change Specialist Group, Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland; Faculty of Biology, University of Veracruz-UV, Veracruz, Mexico.
| | - Y Nie
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology & Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - R Wu
- Conservation Biogeography Research Group, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan, China; Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Ecosecurity, Yunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan, China
| | | | - W Foden
- Climate Change Specialist Group, Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland; South African National Parks, Cape Research Centre, Tokai Park, Cape Town, South Africa; Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, South Africa
| | - F Wei
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology & Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Conservation Biology, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China; Centre for Evolution and Conservation Biology, Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China.
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Ding C, Newbold T, Ameca EI. Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17136. [PMID: 38273501 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2023] [Revised: 12/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait-based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non-threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave-vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non-vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non-vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave-vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenchen Ding
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tim Newbold
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Eric I Ameca
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
- Climate Change Specialist Group, Species Survival Commission, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland
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Maxwell SL, Butt N, Maron M, McAlpine CA, Chapman S, Ullmann A, Segan DB, Watson JEM. Conservation implications of ecological responses to extreme weather and climate events. DIVERS DISTRIB 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12878] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sean L. Maxwell
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Nathalie Butt
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Martine Maron
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Clive A. McAlpine
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Sarah Chapman
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
| | - Ailish Ullmann
- Dana and David Dornsife College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences University of Southern California Los Angeles California
| | | | - James E. M. Watson
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Queensland Brisbane Queensland Australia
- Wildlife Conservation Society Global Conservation Program Bronx New York
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Fullman TJ, Bunting EL, Kiker GA, Southworth J. Predicting shifts in large herbivore distributions under climate change and management using a spatially-explicit ecosystem model. Ecol Modell 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Bellard C, Leclerc C, Courchamp F. Combined impacts of global changes on biodiversity across the USA. Sci Rep 2015; 5:11828. [PMID: 26149694 PMCID: PMC4493580 DOI: 10.1038/srep11828] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2014] [Accepted: 06/02/2015] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Most studies of the effects of global changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat, but multiple threats lead to species extinction. We lack spatially explicit assessments of the intensity of multiple threats and their impacts on biodiversity. Here, we used a novel metric of cumulative threats and impacts to assess the consequences of multiple threats on 196 endemic species across the USA. We predict that large areas with high cumulative impact scores for amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles will be concentrated in the eastern part of the USA by the 2050 s and 2080 . These high cumulative impact values are due mainly to the presence of invasive species, climate change, cropland and pasture areas; additionally, a significant proportion of endemic species are vulnerable to some of these threats where they occur. This analysis provides a useful means of identifying where conservation measures and monitoring programs that should consider multiple threats should be implemented in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- C. Bellard
- Genetics, Evolution & Environment, Div Biosciences, Center for Biodiversity, Environment & Research, University College of London
- Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France
| | - C. Leclerc
- Ecologie, Systématique & Evolution, UMR CNRS 8079, Univ. Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay Cedex, France
| | - F. Courchamp
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Center for Tropical Research, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
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