A new methodological approach to adjust alcohol exposure distributions to improve the estimation of alcohol-attributable fractions

Trends in alcohol-attributable hospitalisations and emergency department visits by age, sex, drinking group and health condition in Ontario, Canada

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol-attributable harms are increasing in Canada. We described trends in alcohol-attributable hospitalisations and emergency department (ED) visits by age, sex, drinking group, attribution and health condition.

METHODS

Hospitalisation and ED visits for partially or wholly alcohol-attributable health conditions by age and sex were obtained from population-based health administrative data for individuals aged 15+ in Ontario, Canada. Population-level alcohol exposure was estimated using per capita alcohol sales and alcohol use data. We estimated the number and rate of alcohol-attributable hospitalisations (2008-2018) and ED visits (2008-2019) using the International Model of Alcohol Harms and Policies (InterMAHP).

RESULTS

Over the study period, the modelled rates of alcohol-attributable health-care encounters were higher in males, but increased faster in females. Specifically, rates of alcohol-attributable hospitalisations and ED visits increased by 300% (19-76 per 100,000) and 37% (774-1,064 per 100,000) in females, compared to 20% (322-386 per 100,000) and 2% (2563-2626 per 100,000) in males, respectively. Alcohol-attributable ED visit rates were highest among individuals aged 15-34, however, increased faster among individuals aged 65+ (females: 266%; males: 44%) than 15-34 years (females:+17%; males: -16%). High-volume drinkers had the highest rates of alcohol-attributable health-care encounters; yet, low-/medium-volume drinkers contributed substantial hospitalisations (11%) and ED visits (36%), with increasing rates of ED visits in females drinking low/medium volumes.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol-attributable health-care encounters increased overall, and faster among females, adults aged 65+ and low-/medium-volume drinkers. Monitoring trends across subpopulations is imperative to inform equitable interventions to mitigate alcohol-attributable harms.

Methodological guidelines for the estimation of attributable mortality using a prevalence-based method: The STREAMS-P tool

BACKGROUND

There is evidence of strong links between exposure to different risk factors and life-threatening diseases. Assessing the burden of a risk factor on the population's mortality due to a given disease provides a clear picture of these links. The estimation of attributable mortality to a risk factor is the most widely used procedure for doing this. Although different methods are available to estimate attributable mortality, the prevalence-based methodology is the most frequent. The main objective of this paper is to develop guidelines and checklists to STrengthen the design and REporting of Attributable-Mortality Studies using a Prevalence-based method (STREAMS-P) and also to assess the quality of an already published study which uses this methodology.

METHODS

The design of the guideline and checklists has been done in two phases. A development phase, where we set recommendations based on the review of the literature; and a validation phase, where we validated our recommendations against other published studies that have estimated attributable mortality using a prevalence-based method.

RESULTS

We have developed and tested a guideline that includes the information required to perform a prevalence-based attributable mortality study to a given risk factor; a checklist of aspects that should be present when a report or a paper on attributable mortality is written or interpreted and a checklist of quality control criteria for reports or papers estimating attributable mortality.

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge, the STREAMS-P is the first set of criteria specifically created to assess the quality of such studies and it could be valuable for authors and readers interested in performing attributable mortality studies or interpreting their reliability.

Improving Estimates of Alcohol-Attributable Deaths in the United States: Impact of Adjusting for the Underreporting of Alcohol Consumption

OBJECTIVE

Self-reported alcohol consumption in U.S. public health surveys covers only 30%-60% of per capita alcohol sales, based on tax and shipment data. To estimate alcohol-attributable harms using alcohol-attributable fractions, accurate measures of total population consumption and the distribution of this drinking are needed. This study compared methodological approaches of adjusting self-reported survey data on alcohol consumption to better reflect sales and assessed the impact of these adjustments on the distribution of average daily consumption (ADC) levels and the number of alcohol-attributable deaths.

METHOD

Prevalence estimates of ADC levels (i.e., low, medium, and high) among U.S. adults who responded to the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS; N = 2,198,089) were estimated using six methods. BRFSS ADC estimates were adjusted using the National Alcohol Survey, per capita alcohol sales data (from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System), or both. Prevalence estimates for the six methods were used to estimate average annual alcohol-attributable deaths, using a population-attributable fraction approach.

RESULTS

Self-reported ADC in the BRFSS accounted for 31.3% coverage of per capita alcohol sales without adjustments, 36.1% using indexed-BRFSS data, and 44.3% with National Alcohol Survey adjustments. Per capita sales adjustments decreased low ADC prevalence estimates and increased medium and high ADC prevalence estimates. Estimated alcohol-attributable deaths ranged from approximately 91,200 per year (BRFSS unadjusted; Method 1) to 125,200 per year (100% of per capita sales adjustment; Method 6).

CONCLUSIONS

Adjusting ADC to reflect total U.S. alcohol consumption (e.g., adjusting to 73% of per capita sales) has implications for assessing the impact of excessive drinking on health outcomes, including alcohol-attributable death estimates.

Improving Estimates of Alcohol-Attributable Deaths in the United States: Impact of Adjusting for the Underreporting of Alcohol Consumption

OBJECTIVE

Self-reported alcohol consumption in U.S. public health surveys covers only 30%-60% of per capita alcohol sales, based on tax and shipment data. To estimate alcohol-attributable harms using alcohol-attributable fractions, accurate measures of total population consumption and the distribution of this drinking are needed. This study compared methodological approaches of adjusting self-reported survey data on alcohol consumption to better reflect sales and assessed the impact of these adjustments on the distribution of average daily consumption (ADC) levels and the number of alcohol-attributable deaths.

METHOD

Prevalence estimates of ADC levels (i.e., low, medium, and high) among U.S. adults who responded to the 2011-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS; N = 2,198,089) were estimated using six methods. BRFSS ADC estimates were adjusted using the National Alcohol Survey, per capita alcohol sales data (from the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System), or both. Prevalence estimates for the six methods were used to estimate average annual alcohol-attributable deaths, using a population-attributable fraction approach.

RESULTS

Self-reported ADC in the BRFSS accounted for 31.3% coverage of per capita alcohol sales without adjustments, 36.1% using indexed-BRFSS data, and 44.3% with National Alcohol Survey adjustments. Per capita sales adjustments decreased low ADC prevalence estimates and increased medium and high ADC prevalence estimates. Estimated alcohol-attributable deaths ranged from approximately 91,200 per year (BRFSS unadjusted; Method 1) to 125,200 per year (100% of per capita sales adjustment; Method 6).

CONCLUSIONS

Adjusting ADC to reflect total U.S. alcohol consumption (e.g., adjusting to 73% of per capita sales) has implications for assessing the impact of excessive drinking on health outcomes, including alcohol-attributable death estimates.

Improved estimates for individual and population-level alcohol use in the United States, 1984-2020

Aims

While nationally representative alcohol surveys are a mainstay of public health monitoring, they underestimate consumption at the population level. This paper demonstrates how to adjust individual-level survey data using aggregated alcohol per capita (APC) data for improved individual- and population-level consumption estimates.

Design and Methods

For the period 1984-2020, data on self-reported alcohol consumption in the past 30 days were taken from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) involving participants (18+ years) in the United States (US). Monthly abstainers were reallocated into lifetime abstainers, former drinkers, and 12-month drinkers using the 2005 National Alcohol Survey data. To correct for under-coverage of alcohol use, we triangulated APC and survey data by upshifting quantity (average grams/day) and frequency (drinking days/week) of alcohol use based on national- and state-level APC data. Results were provided for the US as a whole and for selected states to represent different drinking patterns.

Findings

The corrections described above resulted in improved correspondence between survey and APC data. Following our procedure, national estimates of alcohol quantity increased from 45% to 77% of APC estimates. Both quantity and frequency of alcohol use were upshifted; by upshifting to 90% of APC, we were able to fit trends and distributions in APC patterns for individual states and the US.

Conclusions

An individual-level dataset which more accurately reflects the alcohol use of US citizens was achieved. This dataset will be invaluable as a research tool and for the planning and evaluation of alcohol control policies for the US. The methodology described can also be used to adjust individual-level alcohol survey data in other geographical settings.

Pilot study to evaluate usability and acceptability of the ‘Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool’ in Russian primary healthcare

Background and aims

Accurate and user-friendly assessment tools quantifying alcohol consumption are a prerequisite to effective prevention and treatment programmes, including Screening and Brief Intervention. Digital tools offer new potential in this field. We developed the ‘Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool’ (AAA-Tool), a mobile app providing an interactive version of the World Health Organization's Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) that facilitates the description of individual alcohol consumption via culturally informed animation features. This pilot study evaluated the Russia-specific version of the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool with regard to (1) its usability and acceptability in a primary healthcare setting, (2) the plausibility of its alcohol consumption assessment results and (3) the adequacy of its Russia-specific vessel and beverage selection.

Methods

Convenience samples of 55 patients (47% female) and 15 healthcare practitioners (80% female) in 2 Russian primary healthcare facilities self-administered the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool and rated their experience on the Mobile Application Rating Scale – User Version. Usage data was automatically collected during app usage, and additional feedback on regional content was elicited in semi-structured interviews.

Results

On average, patients completed the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool in 6:38 min (SD = 2.49, range = 3.00–17.16). User satisfaction was good, with all subscale Mobile Application Rating Scale – User Version scores averaging >3 out of 5 points. A majority of patients (53%) and practitioners (93%) would recommend the tool to ‘many people’ or ‘everyone’. Assessed alcohol consumption was plausible, with a low number (14%) of logically impossible entries. Most patients reported the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool to reflect all vessels (78%) and all beverages (71%) they typically used.

Conclusion

High acceptability ratings by patients and healthcare practitioners, acceptable completion time, plausible alcohol usage assessment results and perceived adequacy of region-specific content underline the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool's potential to provide a novel approach to alcohol assessment in primary healthcare. After its validation, the Animated Alcohol Assessment Tool might contribute to reducing alcohol-related harm by facilitating Screening and Brief Intervention implementation in Russia and beyond.

Why Is Per Capita Consumption Underestimated in Alcohol Surveys? Results from 39 Surveys in 23 European Countries

Aims

The aims of the article are (a) to estimate coverage rates (i.e. the proportion of ‘real consumption’ accounted for by a survey compared with more reliable aggregate consumption data) of the total, the recorded and the beverage-specific annual per capita consumption in 23 European countries, and (b) to investigate differences between regions, and other factors which might be associated with low coverage (prevalence of heavy episodic drinking [HED], survey methodology).

Methods

Survey data were derived from the Standardised European Alcohol Survey and Harmonising Alcohol-related Measures in European Surveys (number of surveys: 39, years of survey: 2008–2015, adults aged 20–64 years). Coverage rates were calculated at the aggregated level by dividing consumption estimates derived from the surveys by alcohol per capita estimates from a recent global modelling study. Fractional response regression models were used to examine the relative importance of the predictors.

Results

Large variation in coverage across European countries was observed (average total coverage: 36.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] [33.2; 39.8]), with lowest coverage found for spirits consumption (26.3, 95% CI [21.4; 31.3]). Regarding the second aim, the prevalence of HED was associated with wine- and spirits-specific coverage, explaining 10% in the respective variance. However, neither the consideration of regions nor survey methodology explained much of the variance in coverage estimates, regardless of the scenario.

Conclusion

The results reiterate that alcohol survey data should not be used to compare or estimate aggregate consumption levels, which may be better reflected by statistics on recorded or total per capita consumption.

Further considerations of the best indicator for the harmful use of alcohol

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

We discuss the rejoinder of Sherwin to our review which came to the result that adult alcohol per capita consumption is the best indicator for the harmful use of alcohol for the sustainable development goals.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Scientific discourse.

RESULTS

Sherwin suggested two additional indicators, 'age-standardised prevalence of heavy episodic drinking among adolescents and adults' and 'alcohol-related morbidity and mortality among adolescents and adults'. Given that these indicators should be part of the comprehensive sustainable development goals, we do not believe that three indicators for one target make sense. In addition, both suggested indicators are can only be derived using adult alcohol per capita consumption as basis.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Adult per capita consumption should remain the indicator for the sustainable development goals.

Comparing subjective intoxication with risky single-occasion drinking in a European sample

In most epidemiological literature, harmful drinking-a drinking pattern recognized as closely linked to alcohol-attributable diseases-is recorded using the measure risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD), which is based on drinking above a certain quantity. In contrast, subjective intoxication (SI) as an alternative measure can provide additional information, including the drinker's subjective perceptions and cultural influences on alcohol consumption. However, there is a lack of research comparing both. The current article investigates this comparison, using data from the Standardized European Alcohol Survey from 2015. We analysed the data of 12,512 women and 12,516 men from 17 European countries and one region. We calculated survey-weighted prevalence of SI and RSOD and compared them using Spearman rank correlation and regression models. We examined the role of the required quantity of alcohol needed for the drinker to perceive impairments and analysed additional demographic and sociodemographic characteristics as well as drinking patterns. In the most locations, the prevalence of SI was lower or equal to the prevalence of RSOD. Both prevalence estimates were highly correlated. Almost 8% of the variance in the difference between the individual-level frequencies of the SI and RSOD measures was explained by the individual quantity of alcohol needed to perceive impairments. Sociodemographic characteristics and drinking patterns explained less than 20% in the adjusted perceived quantity of alcohol needed. In conclusion, our results indicated that subjective measures of intoxication are not a preferable indicator of harmful drinking to the more conventional measures of RSOD.

Research Protocol to Evaluate the Effects of Alcohol Policy Changes in Lithuania

Aims

To point out the importance for public health to evaluate the past policy changes (2016-2018) in Lithuania. To present a research protocol to conduct this evaluation.

Short summary

The staggered implementation of key alcohol policies in Lithuania over the past two years offers the possibility to evaluate 'best buys' for alcohol policies for this country. Lithuania is the only country where all 'best buys' were implemented over a short period of time, so this evaluation will be unique.

Methods

Quasi-experimental design based on interrupted time-series analysis of monthly routine statistics of morbidity and mortality indicators as well as key variables on the pathway between alcohol exposure and health outcomes.

Conclusions

For the public health community, results of the evaluation of these policy changes will be of critical importance.

Association of binge drinking in adolescence and early adulthood with high blood pressure: findings from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (1994–2008)

Background

An investigation of the risk of high blood pressure (HBP) associated with heavy alcohol consumption in adolescence and early adulthood is lacking. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association between binge drinking from adolescence to early adulthood and the risk of HBP in early adulthood.

Methods

We applied logistic regression to publicly available, population-representative data from waves I (1994–1995; ages 12–18) and IV (2007–2008; ages 24–32) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (n=5114) to determine whether past 12-month binge drinking in adolescence (wave I) and early adulthood (wave IV) was associated with HBP in early adulthood after adjusting for covariates, including smoking and body mass index. HBP was defined according to both the former and new classifications.

Results

HBP was significantly, positively associated with infrequent binge drinking (less than once a week) in adolescence based on the new classification (overall: OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.49; male: OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.81) and frequent binge drinking (heavy consumption) in adolescence based on the former classification (overall: OR= 1.64, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.22; male: OR= 1.79, 95% CI 1.23 to 2.60). The risk of HBP was high when participants engaged in frequent binge drinking in both adolescence and early adulthood, especially based on the former classification (overall: OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.13 to 5.20; female: OR 5.81, 95% CI 2.26 to 14.93).

Conclusion

Binge drinking in adolescence may increase risk of HBP in early adulthood. This association is independent of other important risk factors for HPB, such as smoking and obesity.

How should we set consumption thresholds for low risk drinking guidelines? Achieving objectivity and transparency using evidence, expert judgement and pragmatism

Most high-income nations issue guidelines on low-risk drinking to inform individuals' decisions about alcohol consumption. However, leading scientists have criticized the processes for setting the consumption thresholds within these guidelines for a lack of objectivity and transparency. This paper examines how guideline developers should respond to such criticisms and focuses particularly on the balance between epidemiological evidence, expert judgement and pragmatic considerations. Although concerned primarily with alcohol, our discussion is also relevant to those developing guidelines for other health-related behaviours. We make eight recommendations across three areas. First, recommendations on the use of epidemiological evidence: (1) guideline developers should assess whether the available epidemiological evidence is communicated most appropriately as population-level messages (e.g. suggesting reduced drinking benefits populations rather than individuals); (2) research funders should prioritize commissioning studies on the acceptability of different alcohol-related risks (e.g. mortality, morbidity, harms to others) to the public and other stakeholders; and (3) guideline developers should request and consider statistical analyses of epidemiological uncertainty. Secondly, recommendations to improve objectivity and transparency when translating epidemiological evidence into guidelines: (4) guideline developers should specify and publish their analytical framework to promote clear, consistent and coherent judgements; and (5) guideline developers' decision-making should be supported by numerical and visual techniques which also increase the transparency of judgements to stakeholders. Thirdly, recommendations relating to the diverse use of guidelines: (6) guideline developers and their commissioners should give meaningful attention to how guidelines are used in settings such as advocacy, health promotion, clinical practice and wider health debates, as well as in risk communication; (7) guideline developers should make evidence-based judgements that balance epidemiological and pragmatic concerns to maximize the communicability, credibility and general effectiveness of guidelines; and (8) as with scientific judgements, pragmatic judgements should be reported transparently.