Case-fatality and disability in the Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project cohort

Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice of Stroke Among Hypertensive Patients in Selected Hospitals, Mogadishu: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background and Aim

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability globally, with hypertension identified as the main risk factor. Therefore, the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of hypertensive patients are crucial for the early recognition and timely intervention needed to prevent strokes and minimize their long-term complications. This study aimed to evaluate the knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding stroke among hypertensive patients.

Methods

The study used a cross-sectional design and enrolled 289 hypertensive patients. A consecutive sampling technique was employed to select the participants. Data were collected through an interviewer-administered questionnaire and analyzed using SPSS software (version 26). A significance level of 0.05 was established for the study.

Results

70.6% of participants identified stroke as an interruption in blood flow to the brain. The majority of respondents (94.5%) identified hypertension and diabetes as risk factors for stroke. Sudden loss of vision or double vision is the most prominent indicator of stroke (75.8%). In terms of stroke complications, chronic headaches (89.3%) were widely recognized. Only 41.9% of the patients checked their blood pressure, and 37% took their medications regularly. The knowledge level significantly differed only with sex. However, significant differences were observed in the mean scores for attitudes based on age, education, and income, and in the practice mean score based on sex, education, employment status, and income. A weak positive correlation was found between patients' knowledge and attitude, but no significant correlation between knowledge and practice, or attitude and practice.

Conclusion

The study demonstrated that respondents had good knowledge about stroke but struggled to convert it into a positive attitude and practice. These findings suggest the need for targeted interventions to improve attitudes and practices towards stroke prevention.

Long-term determinants of death after stroke in Ghana: Analysis by stroke types & subtypes

BACKGROUND

Determinants of long-term mortality after stroke by mechanistic type and subtype are unknown in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Such data are crucial for targeting specific pathophysiologic pathways to improve stroke outcomes in the region.

PURPOSE

To evaluate rates and predictors of mortality up to 8 years after stroke, by type and subtype, in Ghana.

METHODS

We prospectively collected data on stroke patients presenting at a tertiary medical facility in Ghana between 2013 and 2018 who were followed up until October 31, 2021. Stroke diagnosis was confirmed using a Computerized Tomography scan; ischemic strokes were mechanistically typed using the TOAST classification while intracerebral hemorrhages were subtyped using the SMASH-U scheme. Demographic and clinical predictors of stroke mortality were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression modelling.

RESULTS

Of 564 patients encountered during the study period, data on vital status were available for 556 (98.6%) subjects at discharge and 442 (78.4%) on follow-up. Mean age was 61.1 ±15.1 years, and 223 (53.1%) were male. Mortality rates at 1, 3, 12, 36, 60 and 96 months were 37.5%, 43.2%, 49.7%, 57.4%, 62.9%, and 73.7% respectively. Three (3) factors remained significantly associated with risk of death namely age, adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of 1.12 (95%CI: 1.04-1.20), no formal education 1.36 (95% CI: 1.02-1.81) and modified Rankin score 1.67 (95%CI: 1.42 - 1.98) for each unit rise. For ischemic stroke the four (4) factors associated with long-term mortality were low formal education, low monthly income, having diabetes mellitus and higher functional score on admission. For intracerebral hemorrhage, the two factors were increasing age and high functional score.

CONCLUSION

Stroke severity is the key predictor of long-term mortality after an index stroke in Ghana, regardless of the underlying pathophysiologic mechanism. Instituting acute stroke systems of care to facilitate timely reperfusion efforts may greatly improve long term survival outcomes after stroke in SSA.

Indicators Predicting Inpatient Mortality in Post-Stroke Patients Admitted to a Chronic Care Hospital: A Retrospective Pilot Study

Evidence concerning the mortality of post-stroke patients admitted to a chronic-phase hospital seems to be lacking. This pilot study aimed to identify mortality-related clinical variables in the admission of post-stroke patients from a retrospective perspective. A group of 38 non-survival stroke patients and another group of 46 survival stroke patients in a chronic-phase ward of the single center were recruited. Clinical variables including age, sex, stroke type, and Barthel index (BI) score were collected. The difference in the age and BI scores on admission were statistically significant between the two groups (p < 0.01). Polytomous logistic regression analysis revealed that age (odds ratio = 1.09, p = 0.03, and 95% confidence interval: 1.01−1.07), male sex (odds ratio = 5.04, p = 0.01, and 95% confidence interval: 1.39−18.27), and BI scores on admission (odds ratio = 0.90, p = 0.01, and 95% confidence interval: 0.83−0.97) could be prognostic variables. The percentage of correct classification was 83.3%. Age, male sex, and BI scores on admission may be prognostic indicators. The result of this study could lay the groundwork for palliative care for such a clinical population.

Osuntokun Award Lecture 2021: Challenges of Measuring the Burden of Stroke in Africa

BACKGROUND

Over recent years non-communicable diseases have dramatically increased in low- and middle-income countries, including those of sub-Saharan Africa. With continuing high levels of infectious disease, these countries now face the double burden of disease. Stroke has emerged as a major cause of hospital admission, disability, and mortality for which the major modifiable risk factor is hypertension, which is often not diagnosed and, even if diagnosed, not treated and, even if treated, not controlled.

METHODS

In this award lecture paper I outline my personal experience of measuring the burden of, and risk factors for, stroke in sub-Saharan Africa, along with the challenges faced. I will specifically describe the measurement of mortality and case fatality, prevalence and incidence as well as commenting on aetiology and risk factors and reflect on future initiatives and directions.

RESULTS

Over the past 5 decades there has been a dramatic increase in numbers of stroke patients admitted to hospital throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with high in hospital mortality rates, also reflected in high case fatality rates in those cohorts followed up following discharge from hospital. Community-based surveys assessing mortality from stroke using verbal autopsy have demonstrated very high age-adjusted rates. Age adjusted prevalence rates assessed by door-to-door surveys have generally shown lower prevalence than high income countries. The Tanzanian stroke incidence study, which incorporated verbal autopsy for those patients dying before reaching hospital, demonstrated some of the highest age-adjusted stroke incidence rates in the world. There were high rates of stroke in younger ages and high rates of intracranial haemorrhage though not as high as previously shown in hospital-based studies. Hypertension is the main modifiable risk factor but other risk factors such as HIV are important while, certainly in rural populations, raised cholesterol remains rare as does carotid artery stenosis and history of transient ischemic attack. Other vascular disease such as ischemic heart disease and peripheral vascular disease is also less common.

CONCLUSIONS

There is already a large burden relating to stroke in sub-Saharan Africa and this will only escalate further as the population ages. Hypertension is the biggest risk factor for mortality worldwide and in sub-Saharan Africa prevalence rates are very high with the majority of people suffering with stroke not being diagnosed with their hypertension prior to their stroke. The most important challenge is to improve primary prevention for which improving diagnosis and control rates for hypertension is the number one priority. For those who do have stroke there is a need to increase the number of suitably staffed stroke units as these have been shown to have a very large impact on improving both mortality and morbidity in high income countries. There are still many unanswered questions and a need for more research throughout sub-Saharan Africa on risk factors, and treatment, for stroke.

Stroke case fatality in sub-Saharan Africa: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The burden of stroke is high in sub-Saharan Africa; however, few data are available on long-term mortality.

Objective

To estimate over one-month stroke case fatality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed according to meta-analysis of observational studies in epidemiology and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines (PROSPERO protocol: CRD42020192439), on five electronic databases (PubMed, Science direct, AJOL, EMBASE, and Web of Sciences). We searched all studies on stroke case fatality over one month in sub-Saharan Africa published between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2019.

Results

We included 91 studies with a total of 34,362 stroke cases. The one-month pooled stroke case-fatality rate was 24.1% [95% CI: 21.5–27.0] and 33.2% [95% CI: 23.6–44.5] at one year. At three and five years, the case-fatality rates were respectively 40.1% [95% CI: 20.8–63.0] and 39.4% [95% CI: 14.3–71.5] with high heterogeneity. Hemorrhagic stroke was associated with a higher risk of mortality at one month, but ischemic stroke increased the risk of mortality over six months. Diabetes was associated with poor prognosis at 6 and 12 months with odds ratios of 1.64 [95% CI: 1.22–2.20] and 1.85 [1.25–2.75], respectively.

Conclusion

The stroke case fatality over one month was very high, compared to case fatalities reported in Western countries and can be explained by a weak healthcare systems and vascular risk factors.

Clinical Characteristics, Treatment Outcomes, and its Predictors Among Hospitalized Stroke Patients in Ambo University Referral Hospital, West Ethiopia: A Retrospective Hospital-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Stroke is becoming a leading cause of death and adult disability in the developing world.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to assess the clinical characteristics, treatment outcomes, and its predictors among stroke patients admitted to Ambo University Referral Hospital (AURH), West Ethiopia.

METHODS

All 111 stroke patients hospitalized from April 2016 to May 2019 were included using a hospital-based retrospective study. Socio-demographic profile, past medication history, clinical presentation, drugs prescribed for comorbid condition and stroke treatment, and outcomes data were collected using data abstraction formats and results were summarized using both descriptive and inferential statistics.

KEY FINDINGS

According to WHO clinical criteria, 89 (80.2%) were diagnosed with ischemic stroke, and 20 (18.0%) were diagnosed with hemorrhagic stroke. The majority of the patients 94 (84.7%) had at least one antecedent risk factor in which hypertension accounted for 44.1%. More than half, 69 (62.2%), of hospitalized stroke patients had good treatment outcomes while 42 (37.8%) had a poor outcome. The overall case-fatality rate was 18 (16.2%), 12 (13.5%) from ischemic stroke, and 6 (30.0%) from hemorrhagic stroke. Acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) with atorvastatin/simvastatin, 67 (73.5%) in ischemic stroke and 12 (60.0%) in hemorrhagic stroke, was the most frequent medications prescribed for stroke during admission while it was frequently prescribed for 48 (53.6%) of ischemic stroke and 10 (50.0%) of the hemorrhagic stroke on discharge. Overall, ceftriaxone + metronidazole 32 (28.8%) was frequently prescribed concomitant medications during admission. The major predictors identified for poor stroke outcomes were substance abuse (AOR=2.839, P=0.024) and have had not received any medication for stroke treatment during admission (AOR=12.503, P≤0.001).

CONCLUSION

A significant number of the admitted stroke patients had poor treatment outcome in which the case-fatality rate was relatively high. Substance abuse and having not received medication for stroke were the significant predictors for poor treatment outcome. Hence, a well-established stroke unit setup at AURH is required for accurate diagnosis and management of stroke to overcome stroke-related mortality and/or poor treatment outcome.

Stroke in Africa: profile, progress, prospects and priorities

Stroke is a leading cause of disability, dementia and death worldwide. Approximately 70% of deaths from stroke and 87% of stroke-related disability occur in low-income and middle-income countries. At the turn of the century, the most common diseases in Africa were communicable diseases, whereas non-communicable diseases, including stroke, were considered rare, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. However, evidence indicates that, today, Africa could have up to 2-3-fold greater rates of stroke incidence and higher stroke prevalence than western Europe and the USA. In Africa, data published within the past decade show that stroke has an annual incidence rate of up to 316 per 100,000, a prevalence of up to 1,460 per 100,000 and a 3-year fatality rate greater than 80%. Moreover, many Africans have a stroke within the fourth to sixth decades of life, with serious implications for the individual, their family and society. This age profile is particularly important as strokes in younger people tend to result in a greater loss of self-worth and socioeconomic productivity than in older individuals. Emerging insights from research into stroke epidemiology, genetics, prevention, care and outcomes offer great prospects for tackling the growing burden of stroke on the continent. In this article, we review the unique profile of stroke in Africa and summarize current knowledge on stroke epidemiology, genetics, prevention, acute care, rehabilitation, outcomes, cost of care and awareness. We also discuss knowledge gaps, emerging priorities and future directions of stroke medicine for the more than 1 billion people who live in Africa.

Long-Term Mortality of Stroke Survivors in Parakou: 5-Year Follow-Up

BACKGROUND

The burden of stroke is high in Africa, but few data are available on the long-term outcome of strokes in this area.

AIM

We aimed to study the long-term outcome of stroke survivors in Parakou from 2012 to 2018.

METHODS OF STUDY

It was a cohort study and included 247 stroke patients admitted to the University Hospital of Parakou from January 1, 2012 to April 30, 2018. Each patient was followed up for at least 1 year. The modified RANKIN scale was used to evaluate patients. Verbal autopsy was used to ascertain the cause of death. The survival probability was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of mortality were estimated using the Cox proportional model and the hazard ratio (HR) and their 95% confidence intervals were determined. The data were analyzed using Stata Software.

RESULTS

The mean age was 58.1 ± 13.4 years with a sex ratio of 1.12. Among stroke survivors, the mortality was 10.1% at 3 months, 11.7% at 6 months, 15.4% at 1 year, 21.5% at 3 years, and 23.5% at 5 years. The probability of survival after a stroke was 66.5% at 5 years. Factors associated with mortality were age with adjusted HR 1.4 (1.2-1.7) for each 10 years, male sex with aHR 2.3 (1.2-4.6), history of hypertension with aHR 2.0 (1.0-4.1) and the severity of the initial neurological impairment National Institute of Health Stroke Scale with aHR 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for each 1 point. The main causes of death were recurrent stroke, infectious diseases, and cardiac disease. The proportion of patients with functional disability was 53.8% at 1 year. The quality of life was generally impaired in terms of physical health, personal environment, and finances.

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term prognosis of stroke patients in Parakou is poor. It requires urgent action to reduce this burden.

Opportunities for intervention: stroke treatments, disability and mortality in urban Tanzania

OBJECTIVE

Given the high post-stroke mortality and disability and paucity of data on the quality of stroke care in Sub-Saharan Africa, we sought to characterize the implementation of stroke-focused treatments and 90-day outcomes of neuroimaging-confirmed stroke patients at the largest referral hospital in Tanzania.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH) in Dar es Salaam, July 2016-March 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with new-onset stroke (<14 days), confirmed by head CT, admitted to MNH.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES

Modified Rankin scale (mRS) and vital status.

RESULTS

Of 149 subjects (mean age 57; 48% female; median NIH stroke scale (NIHSS) 19; 46% ischemic stroke; 54% hemorrhagic), implementation of treatments included: dysphagia screening (80%), deep venous thrombosis prophylaxis (0%), aspirin (83%), antihypertensives (89%) and statins (95%). There was limited ability to detect atrial fibrillation and carotid artery disease and no acute thrombolysis or thrombectomy. Of ischemic subjects, 19% died and 56% had severe disability (mRS 4-5) at discharge; 49% died by 90 days. Of hemorrhagic subjects, 33% died and 49% had severe disability at discharge; 50% died by 90 days. In a multivariable model, higher NIHSS score but not dysphagia, unconsciousness, or patient age was predictive of death by 90 days.

CONCLUSIONS

The 90-day mortality of stroke presenting at MNH is 50%, much higher than in higher income settings. Although severe stroke presentations are a major factor, efforts to improve the quality of care and prevent complications of stroke are urgently needed. Acute stroke interventions with low number needed to treat represent challenging long-term goals.

Self-rated health after stroke: a systematic review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Self-rated health (SRH) allows for comparison and identification of the health status of various populations. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature to expand the understanding of SRH after stroke.

METHODS

This systematic review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42017056194) and conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. Studies published until December 2018 that evaluated the SRH of adults with stroke were included.

RESULTS

Of the 2132 identified studies, 51 were included. Only four studies had experimental designs (7.8%). In 60.7% of the studies, SRH was assessed by variations on direct questions (i.e., general and comparative SRH). Analog visual scales and quality of life instruments were also used to evaluate SRH, but there is no consensus regarding whether they are appropriate for this purpose. The results of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies revealed significant associations between poor SRH and stroke as well as between SRH, function, and disability. The power of SRH to predict stroke mortality is still uncertain. Two interventions (a home-based psychoeducational program concerning stroke health care and family involvement in functional rehabilitation) effectively improved SRH.

CONCLUSIONS

Direct questions are the most common method of evaluating SRH after stroke. Studies reported significant associations between the SRH of individuals with stroke and several relevant health outcomes. However, few experimental studies have evaluated SRH after stroke. Interventions involving health education and family involvement had a significant impact on SRH.

Unmet care needs of community-dwelling stroke survivors: a protocol for systematic review and theme analysis of quantitative and qualitative studies

INTRODUCTION

Stroke is a leading cause of disability worldwide. The average hospital length of stay ranges from 3 to 28 days, and after discharge home the stroke survivors will live with physical, cognitive, even psychological disorders for the rest of their lives. It is essential to review the unmet needs of stroke survivors.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A systematic review of previous quantitative and qualitative studies reporting the unmet needs of stroke survivors in their homes will be conducted. The following six databases will be searched from inception to December 2018 for relevant articles: PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, SCOPUS and China Biology Medicine. We will include studies limited to human and published in English or Chinese, and the patients with stroke should discharge home rather than any other professional organisations including nursing homes or community rehabilitation units and so on. Data of quantitative research will be standardised for comparison, thematic analysis will be used for qualitative data and a narrative synthesis and pooled analysis of the main outcomes will be reported.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This review will be submitted to an international professional journal, and the detailed search strategies and analysis flowchart will be openly included as supplements. This study does not require ethical approval as no patient's identifiable data will be used. Our findings will give a new look at the aspect of stroke survivors' unmet needs in their long-term recovery stage, especially the trajectories of unmet needs at different timepoints. What is more, this review will demonstrate the long-term unmet needs of stroke survivors from different countries, will compare any variations between high-income and low-income regions, and the geographical differences of needs will be mapped if necessary. We will endeavour to provide as much information as possible to healthcare professionals and public health policy makers in order to promote further medical reform.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018112181.

Stroke Mortality in Kenya's Public Tertiary Hospitals: A Prospective Facility-Based Study

Background

Despite the increasing global burden of stroke, there are limited data on stroke from Kenya to guide in decision-making. Stroke occurrence in sub-Saharan Africa has been associated with poor health outcomes. This study sought to establish the stroke incidence density and mortality in Kenya's leading public tertiary hospitals for purposes of informing clinical practice and policy.

Methods

This is a prospective study conducted at Kenya's leading referral hospitals, namely, Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH) and Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH). Adult patients with confirmed cases of stroke were recruited from February 2015 to January 2016 and followed up for a minimum period of 1 year. The WHO 2006 Stroke STEPS instrument was used to collect data on incidence and mortality at days 10 and 28 and every 3 months for 24 months. The person-time of follow-up was computed from admission to death, loss to follow-up, or the end of the study. A survival regression analysis was done using the Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

A total of 719 patients were recruited (KNH: n = 406 [56.5%]; MTRH: n = 313 [43.5%]). The mean age was 58.6 ± 18.7 years, and the male-to-female ratio was 1: 1.4. Ischemic stroke accounted for 56.1% of the stroke cases. The peak age for stroke was between 50 and 69 years, when 36.3% of the cases occurred. Mortality at day 10 and day 28 was 18.4 and 26.7%, respectively. The inpatient mortality rate was 21.6%. The stroke incidence density was 507 deaths per 1,000 person-years of follow-up. The mean survival time was significantly different between inpatients (13.9 months; 95% CI: 13.0–14.7) and outpatients (18.6 months; 95% CI: 17.2–19.9) (p < 0.001). A 1-year increase in age increased the hazard by 1.8%. Inpatients had a 3.9-fold increase in hazard compared to outpatients.

Conclusions

Mortality due to stroke is high, with poor survival observed in the first year after stroke. The risk of death increases with increasing age and duration of hospital stay. There is need for attention to quality of care and long-term needs of stroke patients to mitigate the high mortality rates observed. Public health initiatives aimed at early screening and diagnosis should be enhanced. Further research is recommended to establish the true burden of stroke at the community level to inform appropriate mitigation measures.

Long-Term Outcomes of Stroke in a Ghanaian Outpatient Clinic

BACKGROUND

Compared with high-income countries, sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries experience a comparatively higher early mortality from stroke. However, data on long-term mortality from stroke in SSA are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim is to assess long-term outcomes of stroke in an SSA setting.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of longitudinal data involving 607 consecutive stroke survivor encountered at an outpatient clinic in Kumasi, Ghana, between January 2012 and June 2014. Data were closed for analysis in June 2016. Data on demography, presence of vascular risk factors, stroke type, and functional status were evaluated. We followed up subjects who were no longer attending clinic by phone to assess their vital status. Primary outcome was death after initiation of clinic care, and its predictors were determined using a Cox proportional hazards regression model.

RESULTS

Mean ± standard deviation (SD) age of cohort was 59.9 ± 13.9 years and 50.3% were female. Of the 607 stroke survivors, 377 (62.1%) were still alive, 59 (9.7%) were confirmed to have died, whereas 171 (28.2%) were lost to follow-up at the clinic. Mean ± SD observation time for the cohort was 32 ± 30 months. Upon adjustment for confounders, the independent predictors of mortality were age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] of 1.41 [95% confidence interval 1.15-1.73] for a 10-year increase in age) and diabetes mellitus (aHR of 2.24 [1.32-3.80]).

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes mellitus, a modifiable risk factor for stroke, is associated with an increased risk of mortality among West African stroke survivors over the long term.

Early Mortality and Associated Factors among Patients with Stroke Admitted to a Large Teaching Hospital in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Stroke is a major cause of death worldwide and 85.5% of stroke deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries due to stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate correlates and predictors of 30-day mortality in stroke patients in urban Tanzania.

METHODS

A prospective 30-day follow-up study was conducted at the Muhimbili National Hospital, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We recruited all patients with stroke seen at the Emergency Medicine Department and medical wards. Patients underwent medical history and physical examination including full neurological examination. For those who met the criteria for the diagnosis of stroke according to the World Health Organization, further data were collected, including cholesterol, creatinine, fasting blood glucose, full blood picture, human immunodeficiency virus serology, and electrocardiogram. Patients were followed up at 30 days from the date of stroke onset. The date and the cause of death of those participants who died within 30 days of stroke onset were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 224 patients were recruited into the study, with follow-up data available on 186 (83.0%). At 30 days post stroke, 124 patients (66.7%) were still alive. Mortality was significantly higher among stroke patients who were over 65 years of age. Of the 62 who died, 54% died of aspiration pneumonia and 21% of septicemia. Patients with infection were 4.4 times more likely to die than thosewithout (P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Poststroke mortality rates were high. Many deaths were potentially preventable.

Incidence and risk conditions of ischemic stroke in older adults

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to investigate incidence and mortality from ischemic stroke in older adults with specific underlying chronic conditions, evaluating the influence of these conditions in developing stroke.

MATERIALS & METHODS

Population-based cohort study involving 27,204 individuals ≥60 years old in Southern Catalonia, Spain. All cases of hospitalization from ischemic stroke (confirmed by neuro-imaging) were collected from 01/12/2008 until 30/11/2011. Incidence rates and 30-day mortality were estimated according to age, sex, chronic illnesses, and underlying conditions. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to calculate Hazards Ratio (HR) and estimate the association between baseline conditions and risk of developing stroke.

RESULTS

Mean incidence rate reached 453 cases per 100,000 person-years. Maximum rates appeared among individuals with history of prior stroke (2926 per 100,000), atrial fibrillation (1815 per 100,000), coronary artery disease (1104 per 100,000), nursing-home residence (1014 per 100,000), and advanced age ≥80 years (1006 per 100,000). Thirty-day mortality was 13% overall, reaching 21% among patients over 80 years. Age [HR: 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.07], history of prior stroke (HR: 5.08; 95% CI: 3.96-6.51), history of coronary artery disease (HR: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.21-2.25), atrial fibrillation (HR: 2.96; 95% CI: 2.30-3.81), diabetes mellitus (HR: 1.55; 95% CI: 1.23-1.95), and smoking (HR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.15-2.34) emerged independently associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke.

CONCLUSION

Incidence and mortality from ischemic stroke remains considerable. Apart from age and history of atherosclerosis (prior stroke or coronary artery disease), atrial fibrillation, diabetes, and smoking were the underlying conditions most strongly associated with an increased risk.

Case-fatality and disability in the Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project cohort

Objectives

The burden of stroke on healthcare services in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) is increasing. However, long‐term outcomes from stroke in SSA are not well described. We aimed to investigate case‐fatality and health outcomes for stroke survivors at 7‐ to 10‐year follow‐up.

Materials and methods

The Tanzanian Stroke Incidence Project (TSIP) recruited incidence stroke cases between 2003 and 2006. We followed up cases in 2013, recording date of death in those who had died.

Results

Of 130 stroke cases included in this study, case‐fatality and date of death data were available for 124 at 7–10 years post‐stroke. Of these, 102 (82.3%) had died by 7 years post‐stroke. Functional disability, as measured by the Barthel index immediately post‐stroke, was a significant predictor of case‐fatality at seven‐year follow‐up with those with severe disability having an almost four‐fold increase in the odds of death compared with those with no, mild or moderate disability.

Conclusions

Case‐fatality rates are higher than reported in high‐income countries, with post‐stroke disability a significant predictor of death. Sustainable interventions to reduce post‐stroke disability in this setting should be investigated.