A validated web-based tool to display individualised Crohn's disease predicted outcomes based on clinical, serologic and genetic variables

Tailoring therapy to the individuals of Crohn's disease

For decades, increasing incidence and prevalence of Crohn's disease (CD) have attracted more attention. Some severe complications such as perforations, fistulas, and abscesses have significantly impaired patients' quality of life. Though the emergence of biologic agents has improved disease course and prognosis to a great extent, different disease manifestations and the economic burden of disease make biologic agents not suitable for all CD patients. The ultimate goal of achieving clinical and endoscopic remission, and even transmural healing is same for every CD patient, but therapeutic decision is so difficult for individual differences. Making a personalized approach based on disease behavior, drug response and other related factors is critical for disease management. This review attempts to summarize the existing clinical trials and data for better tailoring personalized therapy of CD.

Prospective Evaluation of the Prediction Score for a Mild Course of Crohn's Disease (PreMiCC) in Newly Diagnosed Patients With Crohn's Disease: The PROGNOS Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The course of Crohn's disease (CD) is highly variable. The Prospektive Evaluation eines Score zur Vorhersage eines milden Verlaufsbei neu diagnostizierten Morbus Crohn-Patienten in gastroenterologischen Fachpraxen (PROGNOS) study aimed to determine the frequency of a mild disease course and validate a proposed prediction score.

METHODS

The PROGNOS study is a prospective study of CD patients who were newly diagnosed and, except for 1 course of 5-aminosalicylic acid or steroids for ≤10 days, therapy-naïve. Among other predefined inclusion criteria, the initial diagnosis had to be made ≤6 weeks before enrollment. All inception cohort patients were diagnosed and screened consecutively in participating gastroenterology practices in Germany specialized in inflammatory bowel disease. All screened CD patients were scored and, if possible, included in the study for up to 5 years (NCT02193048).

RESULTS

A total of 201 CD patients were included in the study (43.3% male; mean age 33 years, mean follow-up 38 months). Altogether, 29.5% of the patients had a mild course at 36 months. Among those with a score ≤2, therapy escalation at 36 months was necessary for only 24.2%, whereas in the group with a score >2, therapy escalation was necessary for 70.2% of patients. In the Kaplan-Meier curve showing time to therapy escalation in the 2 groups, there was a pronounced and statistically significant divergence of the curves starting at 3 months and extending to 48 months (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective study, about 30% of incident CD patients had a mild disease course. Our suggested PreMiCC (prediction score for a mild course of Crohn's disease) successfully predicted this.

Eleven Grand Challenges for Inflammatory Bowel Disease Genetics and Genomics

The past 2 decades have witnessed extraordinary advances in our understanding of the genetic factors influencing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), providing a foundation for the approaching era of genomic medicine. On behalf of the NIDDK IBD Genetics Consortium, we herein survey 11 grand challenges for the field as it embarks on the next 2 decades of research utilizing integrative genomic and systems biology approaches. These involve elucidation of the genetic architecture of IBD (how it compares across populations, the role of rare variants, and prospects of polygenic risk scores), in-depth cellular and molecular characterization (fine-mapping causal variants, cellular contributions to pathology, molecular pathways, interactions with environmental exposures, and advanced organoid models), and applications in personalized medicine (unmet medical needs, working toward molecular nosology, and precision therapeutics). We review recent advances in each of the 11 areas and pose challenges for the genetics and genomics communities of IBD researchers.

The Disease Severity Index for Inflammatory Bowel Disease Is a Valid Instrument that Predicts Complicated Disease

BACKGROUND

The disease severity index (DSI) for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) combines measures of disease phenotype, inflammatory activity, and patient-reported outcomes. We aimed to validate the DSI and assess its utility in predicting a complicated IBD course.

METHODS

A multicenter cohort of adults with IBD was recruited. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and weighted Kappa assessed inter-rater reliability. Cronbach's alpha measured internal consistency of DSI items. Spearman's rank correlations compared the DSI with endoscopic indices, symptom indices, quality of life, and disability. A subgroup was followed for 24 months to assess for a complicated IBD course. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and multivariable logistic regression assessed the utility of the DSI in predicting disease progression.

RESULTS

Three hundred and sixty-nine participants were included (Crohn's disease [CD], n = 230; female, n = 194; mean age, 46 years [SD, 15]; median disease duration, 11 years [interquartile range, 5-21]), of which 171 (CD, n = 99; ulcerative colitis [UC], n = 72) were followed prospectively. The DSI showed inter-rater reliability for CD (ICC 0.93, n = 65) and UC (ICC 0.97, n = 33). The DSI items demonstrated inter-rater agreement (Kappa > 0.4) and internal consistency (CD, α > 0.59; UC, α > 0.75). The DSI was significantly associated with endoscopic activity (CDn=141, r = 0.65, P < .001; UCn=105, r = 0.80, P < .001), symptoms (CDn=159, r = 0.69, P < .001; UCn=132, r = 0.58, P < .001), quality of life (CDn=198, r = -0.59, P < .001; UCn=128, r = -0.68, P < .001), and disability (CDn=83, r = -0.67, P < .001; UCn=52, r = -0.74, P < .001). A DSI of 23 best predicted a complicated IBD course (AUROC = 0.82, P < .001) and was associated with this end point on multivariable analyses (aOR, 9.20; 95% confidence interval, 3.32-25.49).

CONCLUSIONS

The DSI reliably encapsulates factors contributing to disease severity and accurately prognosticates the longitudinal IBD course.

Review article: Measuring disease severity in inflammatory bowel disease - Beyond treat to target

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) follows a heterogenous disease course and predicting a patient's prognosis is challenging. There is a wide burden of illness in IBD and existing tools measure disease activity at a snapshot in time. Comprehensive assessment of IBD severity should incorporate disease activity, prognosis, and the impacts of disease on a patient. This review investigates the concept of disease severity in adults with IBD to highlight key components contributing to this.

METHODS

To perform this narrative review, a Medline search was conducted for full-text articles available at 1st March 2024 using search terms which encompassed disease activity assessment, disease severity, prognosis, natural history of Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), and the burden of IBD.

RESULTS

Current methods of disease assessment in IBD have evolved from a focus on the burden of symptoms to one that includes inflammatory targets, genetic, serological, and proteomic profiles, and assessments of quality-of-life (QoL), disability, and psychosocial health. Longitudinal studies of IBD suggest that the burden of illness is driven by disease phenotype, clinical markers of complicated disease course (previous intestinal resection, corticosteroid use, perianal disease in CD, recent hospitalisations in UC), gut inflammation, and the impact of IBD on the patient.

CONCLUSIONS

Disease severity in IBD can be difficult to conceptualise due to the multitude of factors that contribute to IBD outcomes. Measurement of IBD severity may better encapsulate the full burden of illness rather than gut inflammation alone at a single timepoint and may be associated with longitudinal outcomes.

Personalised therapy in inflammatory bowel disease

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), with ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease being their most common presentations, comprise a spectrum of diverse disease phenotypes, exhibiting variable behaviors ranging from an indolent course to aggressive phenotypes that impact quality of life of these patients. The last two decades have been marked by the development of new medications (biological therapy and novel small molecules) with diverse mechanisms of action, which have revolutionized the management of IBD, thereby enhancing the quality of life for these patients. This landscape of multiple therapeutic options underscores the need to define which medication will benefit each patient the most and at what speed it should be started. The objective of this review is to present personalized approaches for patients with IBD, thus contributing to therapeutic management.

Vedolizumab, Adalimumab, and Methotrexate Combination Therapy in Crohn's Disease (EXPLORER)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Although biologics have revolutionized the treatment of Crohn's disease (CD), an efficacy ceiling has been reached. Combining biologic therapies may improve remission rates.

METHODS

EXPLORER, a phase 4, single-arm, open-label study, evaluated triple combination therapy with vedolizumab (300 mg on day 1, weeks 2 and 6, and then every 8 weeks), adalimumab (160 mg on day 2, 80 mg at week 2, then 40 mg every 2 weeks), and methotrexate (15 mg weekly) in biologic-naïve patients with newly diagnosed, moderate- to high-risk CD. Endoscopic remission at week 26 (primary end point; Simple Endoscopic Score for CD ≤2), clinical remission at weeks 10 and 26 (secondary end point; Crohn's Disease Activity Index <150), and incidences of adverse events and serious adverse events were evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 55 enrolled patients, the mean CD duration was 0.4 years, the mean baseline Simple Endoscopic Score for CD was 12.6, and the mean baseline Crohn's Disease Activity Index was 265.5. At week 26, 19 patients (34.5%) were in endoscopic remission. At weeks 10 and 26, 34 (61.8%) and 30 patients (54.5%), respectively, were in clinical remission. Post hoc Bayesian analysis showed that the probabilities that triple combination therapy produced a higher endoscopic remission rate (33.5%; 95% credible interval, 22.4-45.7) than placebo (14%), vedolizumab monotherapy (27%), or adalimumab monotherapy (30%) were 99.9% or higher, 86.3%, and 71.4%, respectively. Six patients had serious adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Combination therapy resulted in endoscopic and clinical remission at week 26 in 34.5% and 54.5% of patients, respectively, with no safety signal related to the treatment regimen. This supports further evaluation of combination therapy in CD.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov number: NCT02764762.

Genetic Variants Associated with Biological Treatment Response in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Systematic Review

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a chronic inflammatory disorder of the digestive tract usually characterized by diarrhea, rectal bleeding, and abdominal pain. IBD includes Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis as the main entities. IBD is a debilitating condition that can lead to life-threatening complications, involving possible malignancy and surgery. The available therapies aim to achieve long-term remission and prevent disease progression. Biologics are bioengineered therapeutic drugs that mainly target proteins. Although they have revolutionized the treatment of IBD, their potential therapeutic benefits are limited due to large interindividual variability in clinical response in terms of efficacy and toxicity, resulting in high rates of long-term therapeutic failure. It is therefore important to find biomarkers that provide tailor-made treatment strategies that allow for patient stratification to maximize treatment benefits and minimize adverse events. Pharmacogenetics has the potential to optimize biologics selection in IBD by identifying genetic variants, specifically single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which are the underlying factors associated with an individual's drug response. This review analyzes the current knowledge of genetic variants associated with biological agent response (infliximab, adalimumab, ustekinumab, and vedolizumab) in IBD. An online literature search in various databases was conducted. After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 28 reports from the 1685 results were employed for the review. The most significant SNPs potentially useful as predictive biomarkers of treatment response are linked to immunity, cytokine production, and immunorecognition.

Leaky gut, circulating immune complexes, arthralgia, and arthritis in IBD: coincidence or inevitability?

Most host-microbiota interactions occur within the intestinal barrier, which is essential for separating the intestinal epithelium from toxins, microorganisms, and antigens in the gut lumen. Gut inflammation allows pathogenic bacteria to enter the blood stream, forming immune complexes which may deposit on organs. Despite increased circulating immune complexes (CICs) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and discussions among IBD experts regarding their potential pathogenic role in extra-intestinal manifestations, this phenomenon is overlooked because definitive evidence demonstrating CIC-induced extra-intestinal manifestations in IBD animal models is lacking. However, clinical observations of elevated CICs in newly diagnosed, untreated patients with IBD have reignited research into their potential pathogenic implications. Musculoskeletal symptoms are the most prevalent extra-intestinal IBD manifestations. CICs are pivotal in various arthritis forms, including reactive, rheumatoid, and Lyme arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus. Research indicates that intestinal barrier restoration during the pre-phase of arthritis could inhibit arthritis development. In the absence of animal models supporting extra-intestinal IBD manifestations, this paper aims to comprehensively explore the relationship between CICs and arthritis onset via a multifaceted analysis to offer a fresh perspective for further investigation and provide novel insights into the interplay between CICs and arthritis development in IBD.

Precision medicine in inflammatory bowel diseases

Inflammatory bowel diseases comprising Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis have emerged as global diseases. Multiple distinct therapeutic mechanisms have allowed us to increase our rates of achieving remission and reducing permanent disease-related morbidity. However, there is limited data to inform relative positioning of different therapies. This review will summarize existing literature on use of clinical decision models to inform relative efficacy of one therapeutic mechanism compared to the other given individual patient characteristics. It will also demonstrate the value of serologic, transcriptomic (from biopsies), and microbiome-based biomarkers in identifying which therapy is most likely to work for a given patient. We will review the existing gaps in the literature in this field and suggest a path forward for future studies to better inform patient care, incorporating the principles of precision medicine in the management of inflammatory bowel disease.

Baseline Clinical Factors Are Associated With Risk of Complications in Crohn's Disease: Appraisal of the American Gastroenterological Association Clinical Care Pathway

INTRODUCTION

The American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) has compiled risk factors that may be predictive of disease complications in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the AGA risk factors for risk stratification in UC and CD.

METHODS

We included participants of 2 cohorts: the Ocean State Crohn's and Colitis Area Registry cohort and the Mayo Clinic cohort. Baseline clinical risk factors were extracted according to the AGA pathway. Our primary end point was defined as follows: (i) any inflammatory bowel disease related-hospitalization, (ii) any inflammatory bowel disease-related bowel surgery, or (iii) any progression of disease. We analyzed the association of the number of AGA risk factors with our end point. Statistical multivariable modeling was performed with Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 412 patients with CD were included. Comparing ≥3 risk factors with 0-1 risk factor, we found a significantly increased risk of complications in both the Ocean State Crohn's and Colitis Area Registry cohort (hazard ratio [HR] 2.75, 95% confidence interval 1.71-4.41) and Mayo Clinic cohort (HR 2.07, 95% confidence interval 1.11-3.84). Diagnosis at younger age (HR 2.07), perianal disease (HR 1.99), and B2/B3 behavior (HR 1.92) were significantly associated with disease complications. We did not observe a consistent association between number of risk factors nor any specific individual risk factors and risk of disease complications in the 265 patients with UC included.

DISCUSSION

We found a significant association between the number of AGA risk factors and the risk of disease complication in CD; this association was not significant in UC. The presence of ≥ 3 risk factors in CD leads to the highest risk of complications. The AGA care pathway is a useful tool to stratify patients who are at higher risk of disease complications in patients with CD.

Impact of artificial intelligence on prognosis, shared decision-making, and precision medicine for patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a perspective and expert opinion

INTRODUCTION

Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to impact all facets of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) management, including disease assessment, treatment decisions, discovery and development of new biomarkers and therapeutics, as well as clinician-patient communication.

AREAS COVERED

This perspective paper provides an overview of the application of AI in the clinical management of IBD through a review of the currently available AI models that could be potential tools for prognosis, shared decision-making, and precision medicine. This overview covers models that measure treatment response based on statistical or machine-learning methods, or a combination of the two. We briefly discuss a computational model that allows integration of immune/biological system knowledge with mathematical modeling and also involves a 'digital twin', which allows measurement of temporal trends in mucosal inflammatory activity for predicting treatment response. A viewpoint on AI-enabled wearables and nearables and their use to improve IBD management is also included.

EXPERT OPINION

Although challenges regarding data quality, privacy, and security; ethical concerns; technical limitations; and regulatory barriers remain to be fully addressed, a growing body of evidence suggests a tremendous potential for integration of AI into daily clinical practice to enable precision medicine and shared decision-making.

Personalized Treatment for Crohn's Disease: Current Approaches and Future Directions

Crohn's disease is a complex, relapsing and remitting inflammatory disorder of the gastrointestinal tract with a variable disease course. While the treatment options for Crohn's disease have dramatically increased over the past two decades, predicting individual patient response to treatment remains a challenge. As a result, patients often cycle through multiple different therapies before finding an effective treatment which can lead to disease complications, increased costs, and decreased quality of life. Recently, there has been increased emphasis on personalized medicine in Crohn's disease to identify individual patients who require early advanced therapy to prevent complications of their disease. In this review, we summarize our current approach to management of Crohn's disease by identifying risk factors for severe or disabling disease and tailoring individual treatments to patient-specific goals. Lastly, we outline our knowledge gaps in implementing personalized Crohn's disease treatment and describe the future directions in precision medicine.

Precision medicine in inflammatory bowel disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is an incurable disease characterized by remission-relapse cycles throughout its course. Both Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), the two main forms of IBD, exhibit tendency to develop complications and substantial heterogeneity in terms of frequency and severity of relapse, thus posing great challenges to the clinical management for IBD. Current treatment strategies are effective in different ways in induction and maintenance therapies for IBD. Recent advances in studies of genetics, pharmacogenetics, proteomics and microbiome provide a strong driving force for identifying molecular markers of prognosis and treatment response, which should help clinicians manage IBD patients more effectively, and then, improve clinical outcomes and reduce treatment costs of patients. In this review, we summarize and discuss precision medicine in IBD, focusing on predictive markers of disease course and treatment response, and monitoring indices during therapeutic drug monitoring.

A Novel 8-Predictors Signature to Predict Complicated Disease Course in Pediatric-onset Crohn's Disease: A Population-based Study

BACKGROUND

The identification of patients at high risk of a disabling disease course would be invaluable in guiding initial therapy in Crohn's disease (CD). Our objective was to evaluate a combination of clinical, serological, and genetic factors to predict complicated disease course in pediatric-onset CD.

METHODS

Data for pediatric-onset CD patients, diagnosed before 17 years of age between 1988 and 2004 and followed more than 5 years, were extracted from the population-based EPIMAD registry. The main outcome was defined by the occurrence of complicated behavior (stricturing or penetrating) and/or intestinal resection within the 5 years following diagnosis. Lasso logistic regression models were used to build a predictive model based on clinical data at diagnosis, serological data (ASCA, pANCA, anti-OmpC, anti-Cbir1, anti-Fla2, anti-Flax), and 369 candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms.

RESULTS

In total, 156 children with an inflammatory (B1) disease at diagnosis were included. Among them, 35% (n = 54) progressed to a complicated behavior or an intestinal resection within the 5 years following diagnosis. The best predictive model (PREDICT-EPIMAD) included the location at diagnosis, pANCA, and 6 single nucleotide polymorphisms. This model showed good discrimination and good calibration, with an area under the curve of 0.80 after correction for optimism bias (sensitivity, 79%, specificity, 74%, positive predictive value, 61%, negative predictive value, 87%). Decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the model.

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of clinical, serotypic, and genotypic variables can predict disease progression in this population-based pediatric-onset CD cohort. Independent validation is needed before it can be used in clinical practice.

Unmet Challenges in Patients with Crohn's Disease

Patients with Crohn's disease can present with a variety of clinical manifestations; treatment strategies should focus on long-term remission and improvement of quality of life. There is no standardized process of diagnosing, predicting prognosis, and treating the disease. This narrative review was based on a literature search using PubMed, Embase, and Science Direct. Data on unmet challenges in patients with Crohn's disease were extracted from identified manuscripts. The aim was to discuss present research on standardized processes in the management of patients with Crohn's disease and to identify the unmet needs in clinical evaluation and treatment approaches. There is no consensus on standardized diagnostic, treatment, and surveillance algorithms, particularly in assessing complications of Crohn's, such as stricturing disease, intestinal cancer risk, and cutaneous manifestations. Complications and treatment failure rates of conventional, interventional, and surgical therapy place emphasis on the need for standardized treatment algorithms, particularly in the case of acute complications of the disease. Research on standardized clinical approaches, reliable biomarkers for disease diagnosis and therapy monitoring, and new treatment agents is necessary to improve therapy and reduce complications in patients with Crohn's disease.

Prediction of thiopurine failure in pediatric Crohn's disease: pediatric IBD Porto group of ESPGHAN

BACKGROUND

Maintaining of remission early in the disease course of Crohn's disease (CD) is essential and has major impact on the future prognosis. This study aimed to identify baseline predictors to develop model allowing stratification of patients who will not benefit from long-term azathioprine (AZA) treatment and will require more intensive therapy.

METHODS

This study was designed to develop clinical prediction rule using retrospective data analysis of pediatric CD patients included in prospective inception cohort. Clinical relapse was defined as necessity of re-induction of remission. Sequence of Cox models was fitted to predict risk of relapse.

RESULTS

Out of 1190 CD patients from 13 European centers, 441 were included, 50.3% patients did not experience clinical relapse within 2 years of AZA treatment initiation. Median time to relapse was 2.11 (CI 1.59-2.46) years. Of all the tested parameters available at diagnosis, six were significant in multivariate analyses: C-reactive protein (p = 0.038), body mass index Z-score >0.8 SD (p = 0.002), abnormal sigmoid imaging (p = 0.039), abnormal esophageal endoscopy (p = 0.005), ileocolonic localization (p = 0.023), AZA dose in specific age category (p = 0.031).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the possibility of predicting relapse on AZA treatment appears limited, we developed predictive model based on six baseline parameters potentially helpful in clinical decision.

IMPACT

The possibility of predicting relapse on AZA treatment appears to be possible but limited. We identified six independent predictors available at diagnosis of early AZA/6-MP treatment failure in pediatric CD patients. Using combination of these factors, a model applicable to clinical practice was created. A web-based tool, allowing estimation of individual relapse risk in pediatric CD patients on a particular therapeutic regimen, has been developed.

The cost of inflammatory bowel disease in high-income settings: a Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission

The cost of caring for patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) continues to increase worldwide. The cause is not only a steady increase in the prevalence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis in both developed and newly industrialised countries, but also the chronic nature of the diseases, the need for long-term, often expensive treatments, the use of more intensive disease monitoring strategies, and the effect of the diseases on economic productivity. This Commission draws together a wide range of expertise to discuss the current costs of IBD care, the drivers of increasing costs, and how to deliver affordable care for IBD in the future. The key conclusions are that (1) increases in health-care costs must be evaluated against improved disease management and reductions in indirect costs, and (2) that overarching systems for data interoperability, registries, and big data approaches must be established for continuous assessment of effectiveness, costs, and the cost-effectiveness of care. International collaborations should be sought out to evaluate novel models of care (eg, value-based health care, including integrated health care, and participatory health-care models), as well as to improve the education and training of clinicians, patients, and policy makers.

Precision medicine and drug optimization in adult inflammatory bowel disease patients

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) encompass two main entities including ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease. Although having a common global pathophysiological mechanism, IBD patients are characterized by a significant interindividual heterogeneity and may differ by their disease type, disease locations, disease behaviours, disease manifestations, disease course as well as treatment needs. Indeed, although the therapeutic armamentarium for these diseases has expanded rapidly in recent years, a proportion of patients remains with a suboptimal response to medical treatment due to primary non-response, secondary loss of response or intolerance to currently available drugs. Identifying, prior to treatment initiation, which patients are likely to respond to a specific drug would improve the disease management, avoid unnecessary side effects and reduce the healthcare expenses. Precision medicine classifies individuals into subpopulations according to clinical and molecular characteristics with the objective to tailor preventative and therapeutic interventions to the characteristics of each patient. Interventions would thus be performed only on those who will benefit, sparing side effects and expense for those who will not. This review aims to summarize clinical factors, biomarkers (genetic, transcriptomic, proteomic, metabolic, radiomic or from the microbiota) and tools that could predict disease progression to guide towards a step-up or top-down strategy. Predictive factors of response or non-response to treatment will then be reviewed, followed by a discussion about the optimal dose of drug required for patients. The time at which these treatments should be administered (or rather can be stopped in case of a deep remission or in the aftermath of a surgery) will also be addressed. IBD remain biologically complex, with multifactorial etiopathology, clinical heterogeneity as well as temporal and therapeutic variabilities, which makes precision medicine especially challenging in this area. Although applied for many years in oncology, it remains an unmet medical need in IBD.

Crohn's disease shared decision making intervention leads to more patients choosing combination therapy: a cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Crohn's disease requires effective patient-clinician communication for successful illness and medication management. Shared decision making (SDM) has been suggested to improve communication around early intensive therapy. However, effective evidence-based SDM interventions for Crohn's disease are lacking, and the impact of SDM on Crohn's disease decision making and choice of therapy is unclear.

AIM

To test the impact of SDM on choice of therapy, quality of the decision and provider trust compared to standard Crohn's disease care.

METHODS

We conducted a multi-site cluster randomised controlled trial in 14 diverse gastroenterology practices in the US.

RESULTS

A total of 158 adult patients with Crohn's disease within 15 years of their diagnosis, with no prior Crohn's disease complications, and who were candidates to receive immunomodulators or biologics, participated in the study. Among these, 99 received the intervention and 59 received standard care. Demographics were similar between groups, although there were more women assigned to standard care, and a slightly shorter disease duration among those in the intervention group. Participants in the intervention group more frequently chose combination therapy (25% versus 5% control, p < 0.001), had a significantly lower decisional conflict (p < 0.05) and had greater trust in their provider (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

With rapidly expanding medication choices for Crohn's disease and slow uptake of early intensive therapy, SDM can personalise treatment strategies and has the potential to move the field of Crohn's disease management forward with an ultimate goal of consistently treating this disease early and intensively in appropriate patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Evaluating a Shared Decision Making Program for Crohn's Disease, ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02084290 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02084290.

Newly Diagnosed Crohn's Disease Patients in India and Israel Display Distinct Presentations and Serological Markers: Insights from Prospective Cohorts

Background: Crohn’s disease (CD) incidence is rising in India. However, features of newly diagnosed patients with CD in this population are largely unknown. The Indo-Israeli IBD GastroEnterology paRtnership (TiiiGER) aimed to investigate differences in presentation among patients with newly diagnosed CD in India and Israel, and to explore phenotype−serotype correlations. Methods: A prospective observational cohort study of consecutive adults (>18 years) conducted in two large referral centers in India and Israel (2014−2018). Clinical data, an antiglycan serological panel, and 20 CD-associated genetic variants were analyzed. Outcomes: complicated phenotype at diagnosis and early complicated course (hospitalizations/surgeries) within 2 years of diagnosis. Results: We included 260 patients (104, Indian (65.4%, male; age, 37.8); 156 Israeli (49.4%, male; 31.8, age)). Median lag time from symptoms onset to diagnosis was 10.5 (IQR 3−38) vs. 3 (IQR 1−8) months in Indian vs. Israeli patients (p < 0.001). Complicated phenotype at diagnosis was observed in 48% of Indian and 30% of Israeli patients (p = 0.003). Complicated phenotype was associated with higher anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibody (ASCA) seropositivity rate among Israeli patients (p < 0.001), but not among Indian patients. Antiglycan serology did not correlate with the tested genetic variants. Early complicated course occurred in 28 (18%) Israeli and 13 (12.5%) Indian patients. The time from diagnosis to complication was comparable (log rank p = 0.152). Antiglycan serology did not correlate with a complicated early course in either cohort. Conclusions: There are significant differences in patients presenting with newly diagnosed CD in India and Israel, including phenotype and distinct biomarkers at diagnosis. These differences suggest different genetic and environmental disease modifiers.

Prognostication in inflammatory bowel disease

Personalized care in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) hinges on parsing the heterogeneity of IBD patients through prognostication of their disease course and therapeutic response to allow for tailor-made treatment and monitoring strategies to optimize care. Herein we review the currently available predictors of outcomes in IBD and those on the both near and far horizons. We additionally discuss the importance of worldwide collaborative efforts and tools to support clinical use of these prognostication tools.

The Development and Validation of Anti-paratuberculosis-nocardia Polypeptide Antibody [Anti-pTNP] for the Diagnosis of Crohn's Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Non-invasive biomarkers in sera of patients with inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] are not currently available for rapidly and accurately diagnosing the disease. We aimed to investigate and validate the potential roles of anti-paratuberculosis-nocardia polypeptide antibodies [anti-pTNP] in the diagnosis of IBD.

METHODS

Serum samples were collected from 502 patients with diagnosed Crohn's disease [CD], 141 patients with ulcerative colitis [UC], and 109 healthy donors. The levels of anti-pTNPs and anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies [ASCAs] were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The effects of each variable on the diagnosis were analysed by receiver operating characteristic [ROC] analysis. We also performed an estimate study by first developing a clinical prediction model, with external validation in CD patients from nine IBD medical centres in China.

RESULTS

The levels of anti-pTNPs in sera of CD patients were higher than those in UC patients and healthy donors. The positive rates of anti-pTNPs were significantly higher in ileal CD patients than in ileocolonic and colonic CD patients, and the levels of anti-pTNP IgG in perianal patients were significantly higher than those in non-perianal CD patients. Of note, anti-pTNPs and perianal diseases were important predictors for active stage of CD patients. Discriminative ability to predict active CD patients was 0.918 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.886-0.949).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-pTNP functions as a novel biological marker for diagnosing CD and can be used to assess disease severity, particularly in those with lesion locations in the terminal ileum and stricturing and perianal diseases. A validated prediction model reveals that anti-pTNPs are useful for estimating the likelihood of active CD.

Clinical, Endoscopic, and Safety Placebo Rates in Induction and Maintenance Trials of Crohn's Disease: Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND

Precision in estimating placebo rates is important for clinical trial design.

AIM

To quantify placebo rates across relevant endpoints in Crohn's disease [CD] trials and identify the factors influencing these rates in a contemporary meta-analysis.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL from inception to March 2021. Eligible studies were placebo-controlled trials of pharmacological interventions for CD. Placebo response and remission rates for induction and maintenance trials were extracted and pooled by random-effects to quantify placebo rates across studies. Mixed-effects meta-regression was used to evaluate the effects of study-level characteristics on placebo rates.

RESULTS

In 125 studies [91 induction, 46 maintenance], placebo clinical remission and response rates for induction studies were 18% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16, 21%], and 32% [95% CI 29, 35%], respectively, and for maintenance studies were 28% [95% CI 23, 34%] and 30% [95% CI 24, 37%], respectively. Endoscopic remission and response rates in induction studies were 8% [95% CI 4, 18%] and 16% [95% CI 11, 23%], respectively. Trials enrolling patients with prior biologic exposure, longer disease duration, and higher CD activity index scores were associated with lower placebo clinical remission rates. Increased duration of follow-up, more follow-up visits, and a greater proportion of patients with colonic disease distribution were associated with higher clinical placebo rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Placebo remission and response rates in CD trials vary according to the phase of the trial, endpoint assessed, and induction or maintenance design. These contemporary estimates will help to inform future CD trial design.

Could Mucosal TNF Transcript as a Biomarker Candidate Help Optimize Anti-TNF Biological Therapy in Patients With Ulcerative Colitis?

Anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) biological therapy has generally been accepted as a standard therapeutic option in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patient who are refractory to steroids or immunomodulators. However, the primary and secondary nonresponse rates to anti-TNF bioagents in patients with IBD are high. To improve the response rate, anti-TNF bioagents must be offered to the appropriate IBD patients, and the withdrawal of anti-TNF bioagents needs to be done at the right time. In this context, reliable and reproducible biomarkers can provide important supportive information for clinicians to make correct decisions based on the patient’s individual situation. In this review, we summarized the current understanding of using mucosal TNF transcript (TNF) to improve the precision of anti-TNF biological therapy strategies in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC). Analysis of published literature showed that mucosal TNF could affect the precision of the early identification of candidates who will benefit from anti-TNF therapy prior to treatment, the assessment of response and mucosal healing, and the prediction of discontinuation of anti-TNF biological therapy and relapse after drug withdrawal. Challenges and limitations of using mucosal TNF as a biomarker in applying individualized anti-TNF biological therapy in patients with UC still remain and need to be further investigated.

Long-Term Follow-up and Predictors of Complicated Disease Behavior in Pediatric Crohn's Disease Patients

OBJECTIVE

Identifying predictors of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) outcome in order to optimize individual patient management in has become an important goal. We aimed to describe the long-term outcome of pediatric Crohn disease (CD) patients and identify risk factors for complicated behavior.

METHODS

Pediatric CD patients diagnosed between 1998 and 2014, with long-term follow-up were included. Baseline data; age, gender, weight/height/BMI percentiles, and family history of IBD. Disease characteristics (Paris classification), laboratory testing, imaging and treatment were documented. Outcome data; evidence of stricturing or penetrating disease, hospitalizations, surgical intervention, malignancies, and mortality.

RESULTS

Of 93 patients included, mean age at diagnosis 13.5 (±3.2), 51 (55%) male, median follow-up 10.3 years (±4 SD(. Disease location at diagnosis: 29 (31.2%) distal ileum, 17 (18.3%) colonic, 40 (43.0%) ileo-colonic. Seven (7.5%) had upper gastrointestinal and 36 (38.7%) perianal involvement. Behavior at diagnosis, 68 (73.1%) inflammatory (B1), and 25 (26.9%) complicated [(B2 (stricturing) and/or B3 (penetrating)]. Twenty (23.2%) of B1 evolved to B2 and/or B3, thus by the end of follow-up 45 (48.4%) had complicated behavior. Sixty-seven (72%) were hospitalized, 20 (21.5%) underwent surgery, two developed malignancy with no mortalities. In a logistic regression model, growth delay (hazard ratio [HR], 5.02 [1.10-22.85], P = 0.037) and low albumin levels (HR, 3.97 [1.32-11.97], P = 0.014) at diagnosis were predictors of complicated disease in adulthood.

CONCLUSIONS

Over a quarter of pediatric Crohn disease patients present with complicated behavior. During follow-up another quarter progress to complicated disease behavior. Delayed growth and low albumin at diagnosis predict progression.

How Do We Predict a Patient's Disease Course and Whether They Will Respond to Specific Treatments?

Gastroenterologists will be all too familiar with the difficult decisions that managing inflammatory bowel disease often presents. How aggressively should I treat this patient? Do I expect them to have a mild or aggressive form of disease? Do they need a biologic? If so, which one? And when should I start it? The reality is that the answers that would be right for one patient might be disastrous for another. The growing therapeutic armamentarium will only make these decisions more difficult, and yet, we have seen how other specialties have begun to use the molecular heterogeneity in their diseases to provide some answers. Here, we review the progress that has been made in predicting the future for any given patient with inflammatory bowel disease-whether that is the course of disease that they will experience or whether or not they will respond to, or indeed tolerate, a particular therapy.

The Future of Precision Medicine to Predict Outcomes and Control Tissue Remodeling in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Inflammatory bowel disease is characterized by significant interindividual heterogeneity. With a wider selection of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions available and in advanced developmental stages, a priority for the coming decade is to determine accurate methods of predicting treatment response and disease course. Precision medicine strategies will allow tailoring of preventative and therapeutic decisions to individual patient needs. In this review, we consider the future of precision medicine in inflammatory bowel disease. We discuss the critical need to extend from research focused on short-term symptomatic response to integrative multi-omic systems biology strategies to identify and validate biomarkers that underpin precision approaches. Crucially, the international community has collective responsibility to provide well-phenotyped and -curated longitudinal datasets for scientific discovery and validation. Research must also study broader aspects of the immune response, including components of the extracellular matrix, to better understand biological pathways initiating and perpetuating tissue fibrosis and longer-term disease complications.

Unmet needs in inflammatory bowel disease

Despite the recent developments in the diagnosis and management of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), patients still suffer from disabling bowel symptoms and significant disease complications and many questions remain to improve their care. IBD is a chronic disease, whose management could be divided into the five different stages of chronic diseases, ranging from the pre-treatment evaluation phase to the induction therapy, maintenance therapy, monitor and re-establishment of control and the cessation of the disease. Reconciling these phases with the current unmet needs in IBD could help tailor priorities for research. In this review, some of the unanswered questions in the management of both Crohn’s Disease and Ulcerative Colitis will be addressed, by following this paradigm of chronic diseases’ management.

A Computational Platform Integrating a Mechanistic Model of Crohn's Disease for Predicting Temporal Progression of Mucosal Damage and Healing

INTRODUCTION

Physicians are often required to make treatment decisions for patients with Crohn's disease on the basis of limited objective information about the state of the patient's gastrointestinal tissue while aiming to achieve mucosal healing. Tools to predict changes in mucosal health with treatment are needed. We evaluated a computational approach integrating a mechanistic model of Crohn's disease with a responder classifier to predict temporal changes in mucosal health.

METHODS

A hybrid mechanistic-statistical platform was developed to predict biomarker and tissue health time courses in patients with Crohn's disease. Eligible patients from the VERSIFY study (n = 69) were classified into archetypical response cohorts using a decision tree based on early treatment data and baseline characteristics. A virtual patient matching algorithm assigned a digital twin to each patient from their corresponding response cohort. The digital twin was used to forecast response to treatment using the mechanistic model.

RESULTS

The responder classifier predicted endoscopic remission and mucosal healing for treatment with vedolizumab over 26 weeks, with overall sensitivities of 80% and 75% and overall specificities of 69% and 70%, respectively. Predictions for changes in tissue damage over time in the validation set (n = 31), a measure of the overall performance of the platform, were considered good (at least 70% of data points matched), fair (at least 50%), and poor (less than 50%) for 71%, 23%, and 6% of patients, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Hybrid computational tools including mechanistic components represent a promising form of decision support that can predict outcomes and patient progress in Crohn's disease.

Precision Medicine in Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) describes a heterogenous group of diseases characterized by chronic inflammation of the intestinal tract. The IBD subtypes, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, and IBD-Unspecified, each have characteristic features, but heterogeneity remains even among the subtypes. There has been an explosion of new knowledge on the possible pathogenesis of IBD over the last 2 decades mirroring innovation and refinement in technology, particularly the generation of large scale - "-omic" data. This knowledge has fostered a veritable renaissance of novel diagnostics, prognostics, and therapeutics, with patients with IBD seeing hope bloom in the increasingly large armamentarium of IBD therapies. However, while there are increased numbers of therapies and more pathways being targeted, the number of medications for IBD is still finite and the efficacy has reached a plateau. Precision medicine (PM) is much needed to rationally select and optimize IBD therapies in the new reality of wider but still limited choice with a concurrent, increasingly fine resolution on the significance and utility of clinical, genetic, microbial, and proteomic characteristics that define individual patients. PM is a rapidly changing art, but this review will strive to detail the current state and future directions of PM in pediatric IBD.

Research-Based Product Innovation to Address Critical Unmet Needs of Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

Despite progress in recent decades, patients with inflammatory bowel diseases face many critical unmet needs, demonstrating the limitations of available treatment options. Addressing these unmet needs will require interventions targeting multiple aspects of inflammatory bowel disease pathology, including disease drivers that are not targeted by available therapies. The vast majority of late-stage investigational therapies also focus primarily on a narrow range of fundamental mechanisms. Thus, there is a pressing need to advance to clinical stage differentiated investigational therapies directly targeting a broader range of key mechanistic drivers of inflammatory bowel diseases. In addition, innovations are critically needed to enable treatments to be tailored to the specific underlying abnormal biological pathways of patients; interventions with improved safety profiles; biomarkers to develop prognostic, predictive, and monitoring tests; novel devices for nonpharmacological approaches such as minimally invasive monitoring; and digital health technologies. To address these needs, the Crohn's & Colitis Foundation launched IBD Ventures, a venture philanthropy-funding mechanism, and IBD Innovate®, an innovative, product-focused scientific conference. This special IBD Innovate® supplement is a collection of articles reflecting the diverse and exciting research and development that is currently ongoing in the inflammatory bowel disease field to deliver innovative and differentiated products addressing critical unmet needs of patients. Here, we highlight the pipeline of new product opportunities currently advancing at the preclinical and early clinical development stages. We categorize and describe novel and differentiated potential product opportunities based on their potential to address the following critical unmet patient needs: (1) biomarkers for prognosis of disease course and prediction/monitoring of treatment response; (2) restoration of eubiosis; (3) restoration of barrier function and mucosal healing; (4) more effective and safer anti-inflammatories; (5) neuromodulatory and behavioral therapies; (6) management of disease complications; and (7) targeted drug delivery.

Performance Characteristics of a Clinical Decision Support Tool for Disease Complications in Crohn's Disease

Background

Patients with Crohn's disease (CD) are at risk of complications. Performance characteristics of a decision support tool assessing the risk of CD complications were evaluated.

Methods

CDPATH (formerly called the Personalized Risk and Outcome Prediction Tool [PROSPECT]) was calibrated and validated in 2 cohorts. Tool prediction of disease characteristics was assessed using Cox regression and Harrell's C-statistic.

Results

All associations of CD complications and CDPATH components were significant except perianal location. There was a significant association between individualized risk assessment scores and CD complications in both cohorts.

Conclusion

CDPATH is validated as a clinical decision support tool for assessing the risk of CD complications.

Results of the Seventh Scientific Workshop of ECCO: Precision Medicine in IBD-Disease Outcome and Response to Therapy

Inflammatory bowel diseases [IBD] are a heterogeneous spectrum with two extreme phenotypes, Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC], which both represent numerous phenotypical variations. Hence, we should no longer approach all IBD patients similarly, but rather aim to rethink clinical classifications and modify treatment algorithms to usher in a new era of precision medicine in IBD. This scientific ECCO workshop aims to provide a state-of-the-art overview on prognostic and predictive markers, shed light on key questions in biomarker development, propose best practices in IBD biomarker development [including trial design], and discuss the potential for multi-omic data integration to help drive further advances to make precision medicine a reality in IBD.

Reduced Systemic Corticosteroid Use among Pediatric Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease in a Large Learning Health System

OBJECTIVES

Corticosteroids have long been used to treat inflammatory bowel disease. However, cumulative corticosteroid exposure is associated with adverse effects, particularly in growing children. Professional guidelines recommend steroid-sparing strategies. It remains unknown whether corticosteroid use has decreased in children with inflammatory bowel disease.

METHODS

We performed retrospective cohort study using data from 2007 to 2018 from the international multi-center ImproveCareNow Network, a pediatric inflammatory bowel disease quality improvement collaborative. Pediatric patients diagnosed with inflammatory bowel disease were included. Patients with missing diagnosis or corticosteroid use data were excluded. We performed serial cross-sectional analyses of period prevalence and used multivariate regression models.

RESULTS

27,321 patients were included (65% Crohn disease, 28% ulcerative colitis, 7% indeterminate colitis). Corticosteroids were used in 10,206 (37%). Corticosteroid use decreased from 28% (2007) to 12% (2018). Black patients received corticosteroids more commonly than white patients. This disparity improved as corticosteroid use decreased in both groups. Most corticosteroid use occurred <120 days after diagnosis. Corticosteroid or 5-aminosalicylate use <120 days after diagnosis predicted later corticosteroid use. Anti-tumor necrosis factor-alpha medication use <120 days after diagnosis was associated with a reduction in corticosteroid use. As corticosteroid use decreased, steroid-sparing therapy use increased and height and weight z scores improved, particularly among children with Crohn disease. Despite improvement across the network, variation in corticosteroid usage remains.

CONCLUSIONS

Corticosteroid use among pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease in the ImproveCareNow Network has decreased over time. Racial disparities in corticosteroid use were found, but gradually improved.

The Development and Usability of the AMPREDICT Decision Support Tool: A Mixed Methods Study

OBJECTIVE

Amputation level decision making in patients with chronic limb threatening ischaemia is challenging. Currently, evidence relies on published average population risks rather than individual patient risks. The result is significant variation in the distribution of amputation levels across health systems, geographical regions, and time. Clinical decision support has been shown to enhance decision making, especially complex decision making. The goal of this study was to translate the previously validated AMPREDICT prediction models by developing and testing the usability of the AMPREDICT Decision Support Tool (DST), a novel, web based, clinical DST that calculates individual one year post-operative risk of death, re-amputation, and probability of achieving independent mobility by amputation level.

METHODS

A mixed methods approach was used. Previously validated prediction models were translated into a web based DST with additional content and format developed by an expert panel. Tool usability was assessed using the Post-Study System Usability Questionnaire (PSSUQ; a 16 item scale with scores ranging from 1 to 7, where lower scores indicate greater usability) by 10 clinician end users from diverse specialties, sex, geography, and clinical experience. Think aloud, semi-structured, qualitative interviews evaluated the AMPREDICT DST's look and feel, user friendliness, readability, functionality, and potential implementation challenges.

RESULTS

The PSSUQ overall and subscale scores were favourable, with a mean overall total score of 1.57 (standard deviation [SD] 0.69) and a range from 1.00 to 3.21. The potential clinical utility of the DST included (1) assistance in counselling patients on amputation level decisions, (2) setting outcome expectations, and (3) use as a tool in the academic environment to facilitate understanding of factors that contribute to various outcome risks.

CONCLUSION

After extensive iterative development and testing, the AMPREDICT DST was found to demonstrate strong usability characteristics and clinical relevance. Further evaluation will benefit from integration into an electronic health record with assessment of its impact on physician and patient shared amputation level decision making.

Improving prediction of disease outcome for inflammatory bowel disease: progress through systems medicine

Introduction: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are lifelong conditions causing relapsing inflammation of the intestine. In the absence of a cure, clinical management of IBDs is extremely challenging since they present with a wide range of phenotypes and disease behaviors. Hence, there is an urgent need for markers that could guide physicians in making the right choice of the rapidly growing treatment options toward a personalized care that could improve the overall outcome.Areas covered: In this review, the authors summarize existing biomarkers in IBD, discuss the challenges with the development of prognostic biomarkers and propose alternative options such as focusing on the prediction of the response to individual treatments, i.e. predictive biomarkers. The problems related to developing disease prognostic and predictive biomarkers in the field of IBDs are discussed including the difficulties in dealing with phenotypic heterogeneity particularly when performing studies in a real-life setting. The authors reviewed literature from PubMed.Expert opinion: Systems biology provides potential solutions to this problem by offering an unbiased, holistic approach to adjusting for variation in larger datasets thereby increasing the chances of identifying true associations between molecular profiles and clinical phenotypes.

Early Indolent Course of Crohn's Disease in Newly Diagnosed Patients Is Not Rare and Possibly Predictable

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The early stages of Crohn's disease (CD) course are heterogeneous, and it is a challenge to predict the course of disease in patients with new diagnosis.

METHODS

We performed an observational longitudinal study of 156 adults (79 male; median age, 27.7 years; 57 treatment naïve) with newly diagnosed CD (within 6 months of enrollment), referred from medical centers and community clinics in Israel from 2013 through 2017. Study participants each received semi-annual scheduled evaluations. Indolent disease was defined as a disease course without need for strict interventions to control complicated course of CD (hospitalization or surgery, or decision to start steroid, immunomodulator, or biologic therapy). Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to identify factors associated with early indolent or complicated course of CD. We validated our findings in an independent cohort of patients with CD from a separate medical center in Israel in 2018.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 17.2 months (interquartile range, 8.8-23.8 months), 52 patients (33.3%) had an indolent course of CD, 29 (18.5%) required hospitalizations, and 75 (48%) were recommended to start steroid, immunomodulator, or biologic therapies. The median time to first intervention was 3.4 months (95% CI, 2.4-4.4). We developed a model based on clinical factors that identified 4 factors associated with complicated course in treatment-naïve patients: body mass index <25 kg/m² (hazard ratio [HR], 2.45; 95% CI, 1.07-5.43; P = .033), serum level of vitamin B12 <350 pg/mL (HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.21-6.41; P = .016), white blood cells ≥7 × 10³/μL (HR, 2.419; 95% CI, 1.026-5.703; P = .044), and serum level of ALT ≥25 IU/L (HR, 2.680; 95% CI, 1.186-6.058; P = .018). This model discriminated between patients with vs without a complicated course of disease with 90% and 89% accuracy at 6 and 12 months after diagnosis, respectively. A validation cohort demonstrated a discriminatory ability of 79% at 3 months after diagnosis, and a nomogram was constructed.

CONCLUSIONS

In an observational longitudinal study of 156 patients with newly diagnosed CD, we found that one third have an early indolent course of disease. We identified factors that can be measured at diagnosis to identify patients at risk for an early complicated course-these might be used in patient management and selection of treatment.

Prognostic biomarkers to identify patients likely to develop severe Crohn's disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Identification of biomarkers that predict severe Crohn's disease is an urgent unmet research need, but existing research is piecemeal and haphazard.

OBJECTIVE

To identify biomarkers that are potentially able to predict the development of subsequent severe Crohn's disease.

DESIGN

This was a prognostic systematic review with meta-analysis reserved for those potential predictors with sufficient existing research (defined as five or more primary studies).

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and EMBASE searched from inception to 1 January 2016, updated to 1 January 2018.

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies were studies that compared biomarkers in patients who did or did not subsequently develop severe Crohn's disease. We excluded biomarkers that had insufficient research evidence. A clinician and two statisticians independently extracted data relating to predictors, severe disease definitions, event numbers and outcomes, including odds/hazard ratios. We assessed risk of bias. We searched for associations with subsequent severe disease rather than precise estimates of strength. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed separately for odds ratios.

RESULTS

In total, 29,950 abstracts yielded just 71 individual studies, reporting 56 non-overlapping cohorts. Five clinical biomarkers (Montreal behaviour, age, disease duration, disease location and smoking), two serological biomarkers (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies and anti-flagellin antibodies) and one genetic biomarker (nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-containing protein 2) displayed statistically significant prognostic potential. Overall, the strongest association with subsequent severe disease was identified for Montreal B2 and B3 categories (odds ratio 4.09 and 6.25, respectively).

LIMITATIONS

Definitions of severe disease varied widely, and some studies confounded diagnosis and prognosis. Risk of bias was rated as 'high' in 92% of studies overall. Some biomarkers that are used regularly in daily practice, for example C-reactive protein, were studied too infrequently for meta-analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Research for individual biomarkers to predict severe Crohn's disease is scant, heterogeneous and at a high risk of bias. Despite a large amount of potential research, we encountered relatively few biomarkers with data sufficient for meta-analysis, identifying only eight biomarkers with potential predictive capability.

FUTURE WORK

We will use existing data sets to develop and then validate a predictive model based on the potential predictors identified by this systematic review. Contingent on the outcome of that research, a prospective external validation may prove clinically desirable.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016029363.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 45. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Approach to the Management of Recently Diagnosed Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A User's Guide for Adult and Pediatric Gastroenterologists

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), including Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, are chronic, progressive, immune-mediated diseases of adults and children that have no cure. IBD can cause significant morbidity and lead to complications such as strictures, fistulas, infections, and cancer. In children, IBD can also result in growth impairment and pubertal delays. IBD is highly heterogenous, with severity ranging from mild to severe and symptoms ranging from mild to debilitating. Delay in IBD diagnosis, especially in Crohn's disease, is common and associated with adverse outcomes. Early diagnosis and prompt institution of treatment are the cornerstones for improving outcomes and maximizing health. Early diagnosis requires a low threshold of suspicion and red flags to guide early specialist referral at the primary provider level. Although the armamentarium of IBD medications is growing, many patients will not respond to treatment, and the selection of first-line therapy is critical. Risk stratification of disease severity, based on clinical, demographic, and serologic markers, can help guide selection of first-line therapy. Clinical decision support tools, genomics, and other biomarkers of response to therapy and risk of adverse events are the future of personalized medicine. After starting appropriate therapy, it is important to confirm remission using objective end points (treat to target) with continued control of inflammation with adjustment of therapy using surrogate biomarkers (tight control). Lastly, IBD therapy extends far beyond medications, and other aspects of the overall health and wellbeing of the patient are critical. These include preventive health, nutrition, and psychobehavioral support addressing patients' concerns around complementary therapy and medication adherence, prevention of disability, and ensuring open communication.

Clinical Criteria Can Identify Children With Osteopenia in Newly Diagnosed Crohn Disease

OBJECTIVES

Chronic inflammation of Crohn disease (CD) is associated with reduced bone mineral density (BMD). As bone mass is almost exclusively accrued during childhood, early recognition of osteopenia is especially important in pediatric CD. We aimed to identify variables associated with osteopenia to guide dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan screening to those who most need it.

METHODS

This was a retrospective inception cohort study of children newly diagnosed with CD, and routinely referred to DXA scans. Demographic and explicit clinical data were recorded along with whole-body less head BMD, adjusted for age, sex, and height by z-scores.

RESULTS

Of the 116 included children (mean age 13 ± 3.1 years, 67 [58%] boys, mean body mass index [BMI] 16.7 ± 2.6), 63 (54%) had normal BMD (z-score > -1) or borderline osteopenia (-1 ≥ z-score > -2) and 53 (46%) had osteopenia (z-score ≤ -2). Osteopenia was associated with lower BMI z-score (-0.8 ± 1.2 vs -1.8 ± 1.1, P < 0.001) and higher PCDAI (33.7 ± 15.2 vs 25.7 ± 16.5; P = 0.009) than those with BMD z-score >-2. In total, 59% of children with BMI z-score <-0.5 had moderate-severe osteopenia and only 18% of those with higher z-scores. Multivariate logistic regression identified BMI z-score as the sole risk factor (OR 1.28 [95% CI 1.08-1.52], P = 0.005). BMI z-score ≥-0.5 excludes osteopenia with a sensitivity 87%, specificity 49%, NPV 82%, and PPV 59%.

CONCLUSIONS

Osteopenia was found in nearly half of children with newly onset CD. BMI z-score <-0.5 should prompt referral to DXA screening.

Sarcoidosis is associated with lower risks of penetrating disease and colectomy in hospitalized patients with inflammatory bowel disease

Background and Aim

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and sarcoidosis, primarily considered distinct entities, share commonalties in pathophysiology and clinical manifestations. This study aimed to examine the in‐hospital outcomes of patients with concurrent IBD and sarcoidosis.

Methods

The National Inpatient Sample was used to identify hospitalized adult patients with IBD and sarcoidosis from 2010 to 2014. Primary outcomes were in‐hospital mortality, rates of septic shock, acute renal failure, respiratory failure, length of stay, and total hospitalization charges. Secondary outcomes were IBD‐specific complications and surgery interventions.

Results

A total of 3995 patients with IBD and coexisting sarcoidosis (IBD/sarcoidosis), of which 2500 patients had Crohn's disease with coexisting sarcoidosis (Crohn's disease [CD]/sarcoidosis) and 1495 patients had ulcerative colitis with coexisting sarcoidosis (ulcerative colitis [UC]/sarcoidosis), were included. Patients with IBD/sarcoidosis had a lower risk of penetrating disease (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16–0.55, P < 0.0001) and colectomy (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.27–0.84, P < 0.05). Subgroup analysis demonstrated lower rates of colectomy when comparing CD/sarcoidosis (P < 0.05) and UC/sarcoidosis (P = 0.0003) versus CD or UC alone. There was no difference in mortality.

Conclusion

IBD/sarcoidosis is associated with lower risks of penetrating disease and colectomy when compared to patients with IBD alone.

Biomarkers of Crohn's Disease to Support the Development of New Therapeutic Interventions

BACKGROUND

Currently, 2 coprimary end points are used by health authorities to determine the effectiveness of therapeutic interventions in patients with Crohn's disease (CD): symptomatic remission (patient-reported outcome assessment) and endoscopic remission (ileocolonoscopy). However, there is lack of accepted biomarkers to facilitate regulatory decision-making in the development of novel therapeutics for the treatment of CD.

METHODS

With support from the Helmsley Charitable Trust, Critical Path Institute formed the Crohn's Disease Biomarkers preconsortium (CDBpC) with members from the pharmaceutical industry, academia, and nonprofit organizations to evaluate the CD biomarker landscape. Biomarkers were evaluated based on biological relevance, availability of biomarker assays, and clinical validation data.

RESULTS

The CDBpC identified the most critical need as pharmacodynamic/response biomarkers to monitor disease activity in response to therapeutic intervention. Fecal calprotectin (FC) and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) were identified as biomarkers ready for the regulatory qualification process. A number of exploratory biomarkers and potential panels of these biomarkers was also identified for additional development. Given the different factors involved in CD and disease progression, a combination of biomarkers, including inflammatory, tissue injury, genetic, and microbiome-associated biomarkers, will likely have the most utility.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary focus of the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Regulatory Science Consortium will be development of exploratory biomarkers and the qualification of FC and CRP for IBD. The Inflammatory Bowel Disease Regulatory Science Consortium, focused on tools to support IBD drug development, will operate in the precompetitive space to share data, biological samples for biomarker testing, and assay information for novel biomarkers.

Personalised medicine in Crohn's disease

Similar to many immune-mediated diseases, Crohn's disease follows a relapsing-remitting pattern, with a variable disease course and heterogeneous clinical outcomes. Frequency of flare-ups, development of complications, and response to treatment collectively determine the effect on a patient's quality of life, which can vary from minimal disruption to profound disability or death. Despite recent advances in the understanding of complex disease pathogenesis, including for Crohn's disease, management decisions are still typically made using a one-size-fits-all approach. Indeed, the inability to reliably predict clinical outcomes in a way that could guide future therapy represents a major unmet need. Recently, several important insights have been made into the biology underlying outcomes in Crohn's disease. In this Review, we will summarise these insights and discuss how greater understanding of these disease mechanisms can be used to develop clinically useful biomarkers, identify novel approaches to optimise disease control, and help deliver the goal of personalised medicine.