Population Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacogenetic Model of Tacrolimus in the Early Period after Kidney Transplantation

Improving prediction of tacrolimus concentration using a combination of population pharmacokinetic modeling and machine learning in chinese renal transplant recipients

Aims

The population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model-based machine learning (ML) approach offers a novel perspective on individual concentration prediction. This study aimed to establish a PPK-based ML model for predicting tacrolimus (TAC) concentrations in Chinese renal transplant recipients.

Methods

Conventional TAC monitoring data from 127 Chinese renal transplant patients were divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets. A PPK model was developed using the training group data. ML models were then established based on individual pharmacokinetic data derived from the PPK basic model. The prediction performances of the PPK-based ML model and Bayesian forecasting approach were compared using data from the test group.

Results

The final PPK model, incorporating hematocrit and CYP3A5 genotypes as covariates, was successfully established. Individual predictions of TAC using the PPK basic model, postoperative date, CYP3A5 genotype, and hematocrit showed improved rankings in ML model construction. XGBoost, based on the TAC PPK, exhibited the best prediction performance.

Conclusion

The PPK-based machine learning approach emerges as a superior option for predicting TAC concentrations in Chinese renal transplant recipients.

Artificial Neural Network Analysis of Determinants of Tacrolimus Pharmacokinetics in Liver Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

The efficacy and toxicity of tacrolimus are closely related to its trough blood concentrations. Identifying the influencing factors of pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in the early postoperative period is conducive to the optimization of the individualized tacrolimus administration protocol and to help liver transplant (LT) recipients achieve the target blood concentrations.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) for predicting the blood concentration of tacrolimus soon after liver transplantation and for identifying determinants of the concentration based on Shapley additive explanation (SHAP).

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we enrolled 31 recipients who were first treated with liver transplantation from the Department of Liver Transplantation and Hepatic Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University (Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital) from November 2020 to May 2021. The basic information, biochemical indexes, use of concomitant drugs, and genetic factors of organ donors and recipients were used for the ANN model inputs, and the output was the steady-state trough concentration (C0) of tacrolimus after oral administration in LT recipients. The ANN model was established to predict C0 of tacrolimus, SHAP was applied to the trained model, and the SHAP value of each input was calculated to analyze quantitatively the influencing factors for the output C0.

RESULTS

A back-propagation ANN model with 3 hidden layers was established using deep learning. The mean prediction error was 0.27 ± 0.75 ng/mL; mean absolute error, 0.60 ± 0.52 ng/mL; correlation coefficient between predicted and actual C0 values, 0.9677; and absolute prediction error of all blood concentrations obtained by the ANN model, ≤3.0 ng/mL. The results indicated that the following factors had the most significant effect on C0: age, daily drug dose, genotype at CYP3A5 polymorphism rs776746 in both recipient and donor, and concomitant use of caspofungin. The predicted C0 value of tacrolimus in LT recipients increased in a dose-dependent manner when the daily dose exceeded 3 mg, whereas it decreased with age when LT recipients were older than 48 years. The predicted C0 was higher when recipients and donors had the genotype CYP3A5*3*3 than when they had the genotype CYP3A5*1. The predicted C0 value also increased with the use of caspofungin or Wuzhi capsule.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

The established ANN model can be used to predict the C0 value of tacrolimus in LT recipients with high accuracy and good predictive ability, serving as a reference for personalized treatment in the early stage after liver transplantation.

Pharmacokinetic Evaluation of Tacrolimus in Chinese Adult Patients during the Early Stages Post-Lung Transplantation

BACKGROUND

Although tacrolimus has been widely used in patients undergoing lung transplantation, few studies have reported the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in Chinese patients after lung transplantation. Thus, we aimed to investigate the pharmacokinetics and influential factors in this patient cohort in the early stage after lung transplantation.

METHODS

We enrolled 14 adult lung transplant recipients who were treated with tacrolimus and then intensively collected blood samples within a 12-h dosing interval. The pharmacokinetic parameters of tacrolimus were calculated using non-compartmental analysis, and the influence of pathophysiological characteristics and CYP3A5*3 and CYP3A4*1G genotypes on the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus was assessed. Using linear regression analysis, we investigated the correlation between tacrolimus concentration at different sampling points and measured the area under the time-concentration curve (AUC_0-12h).

RESULTS

Geometric mean of apparent clearance (CL/F) was 18.13 ± 1.65 L/h in non-CYP3A5*3/*3 carriers, five times higher than that in CYP3A5*3/*3 carriers (p < 0.001). Furthermore, the tacrolimus concentration 4 h after administration had the strongest correlation with AUC_0-12h (R² = 0.979).

CONCLUSION

The pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus varied largely between patients during the early stage post-transplantation, which could be partially explained by CYP3A5*3 genetic polymorphisms.

Pharmacokinetic Model Based on Stochastic Simulation and Estimation for Therapeutic Drug Monitoring of Tacrolimus in Korean Adult Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

Tacrolimus shows high variability in inter- and intraindividual pharmacokinetics (PK); therefore, it is important to develop an appropriate model for accurate therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) procedures. This study aimed to develop a pharmacokinetic model for tacrolimus that can be used for TDM procedures in Korean adult transplant recipients by integrating published models with acquired real-world TDM data and evaluating clinically meaningful covariates.

METHODS

Clinical data of 1829 trough blood samples from 269 subjects were merged with simulated data sets from published models and analyzed using a nonlinear mixed-effect model. The stochastic simulation and estimation (SSE) method was used to obtain the final parameter estimates.

RESULTS

The final estimated values for apparent clearance, the volume of distribution, and absorption rate were 21.2 L/h, 510 L, and 3.1/h, respectively. The number of postoperative days, age, body weight, and type of transplant organs were the major clinical factors affecting tacrolimus PK.

CONCLUSIONS

A tacrolimus PK model that can incorporate published PK models and newly collected data from the Korean population was developed using the SSE method. Despite the limitations in model development owing to the nature of TDM data, the SSE method was useful in retrieving complete information from the TDM data by integrating published PK models while maintaining the variability of the model.

Predicting model‐informed precision dosing: A test‐case in tacrolimus dose adaptation for kidney transplant recipients

Before investing resources into the development of a precision dosing (model‐informed precision dosing [MIPD]) tool for tacrolimus, the performance of the tool was evaluated in silico. A retrospective dataset of 315 de novo kidney transplant recipients was first used to identify a one‐compartment pharmacokinetic (PK) model with time‐dependent clearance. MIPD performance was subsequently evaluated by calculating errors to predict future concentrations, which is directly related to dosing precision and probability of target attainment (PTA). Based on the identified model residual error, the theoretical upper limit was 45% PTA for a target of 13.5 ng/ml and an acceptable range of 12–15 ng/ml. Using empirical Bayesian estimation, this limit was reached on day 5 post‐transplant and beyond. By incorporating correlated within‐patient variability when predicting future individual concentrations, PTA improved beyond the theoretical upper limit. This yielded a Bayesian feedback dosing algorithm accurately predicting future trough concentrations and adapting each dose to reach a target concentration. Simulated concentration‐time profiles were then used to quantify MIPD‐based improvement on three end points: average PTA increased from 28% to 39%, median time to three concentrations in target decreased from 10 to 7 days, and mean log‐squared distance to target decreased from 0.080 to 0.055. A study of 200 patients was predicted to have sufficient power to demonstrate these nuanced PK end points reliably. These simulations supported our decision to develop a precision dosing tool for tacrolimus and test it in a prospective trial.

Predictive Performance of Published Tacrolimus Population Pharmacokinetic Models in Thai Kidney Transplant Patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Tacrolimus is a narrow therapeutic index drug with high pharmacokinetic variability, and several tacrolimus population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) models were developed to guide individualized drug dosing. These models, however, may not perform well in other clinical settings. Therefore, we aimed to assess the predictive ability of published tacrolimus PopPK models using a dataset of Thai kidney transplant patients.

METHODS

The external dataset was retrospectively collected from medical records of Bhumibol Adulyadej Hospital, Thailand. Published tacrolimus PopPK models were systematically searched from PubMed, Science Direct, CINAHL Complete, and Scopus databases. Models conducted using a nonlinear mixed-effects approach with covariate resemblance to our external dataset were selected. The external dataset consisted of Thai kidney transplant patients receiving oral immediate- or extended-release tacrolimus formulations twice or once daily, respectively. Accuracy and precision of predicted concentrations were evaluated using mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and goodness of fit plots.

RESULTS

Only three models produced acceptable population predictions with the MAPE of < 50%. By using the Bayesian posthoc estimate of individual pharmacokinetic parameters, all models well performed with the MAPE and RMSE of < 30% and 40%, respectively, except two models; one could not successfully converge and the other substantially underpredicted tacrolimus concentrations.

CONCLUSION

We evaluated ten tacrolimus PopPK models, and eight models resulted in satisfactorily individual predicted tacrolimus concentrations in Thai kidney transplant patients and may be used to aid tacrolimus dose adjustment along with a clinical judgment.

Evaluation of published population pharmacokinetic models to inform tacrolimus dosing in adult heart transplant recipients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Identification of the most appropriate population pharmacokinetic model-based Bayesian estimation is required prior to its implementation in routine clinical practice to inform tacrolimus dosing decisions. This study aimed to determine the predictive performances of relevant population pharmacokinetic models of tacrolimus developed from various solid organ transplant recipient populations in adult heart transplant recipients, stratified based on concomitant azole antifungal use. Concomitant azole antifungal therapy alters tacrolimus pharmacokinetics substantially, necessitating dose adjustments.

METHODS

Population pharmacokinetic models of tacrolimus were selected (n = 17) for evaluation from a recent systematic review. The models were transcribed and implemented in NONMEM version 7.4.3. Data from 85 heart transplant recipients (2387 tacrolimus concentrations) administered the oral immediate-release formulation of tacrolimus (Prograf) were obtained up to 391 days post-transplant. The performance of each model was evaluated using: (i) prediction-based assessment (bias and imprecision) of the individual predicted tacrolimus concentration of the fourth dosing occasion (MAXEVAL = 0, FOCE-I) from 1-3 prior dosing occasions; and (ii) simulation-based assessment (prediction-corrected visual predictive check). Both assessments were stratified based on concomitant azole antifungal use.

RESULTS

Regardless of the number of prior dosing occasions (1-3) and concomitant azole antifungal use, all models demonstrated unacceptable individual predicted tacrolimus concentration of the fourth dosing occasion (n = 152). The prediction-corrected visual predictive check graphics indicated that these models inadequately predicted observed tacrolimus concentrations.

CONCLUSION

All models evaluated were unable to adequately describe tacrolimus pharmacokinetics in adult heart transplant recipients included in this study. Further work is required to describe tacrolimus pharmacokinetics for our heart transplant recipient cohort.

Population Pharmacokinetic Models of Tacrolimus in Adult Transplant Recipients: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Numerous population pharmacokinetic (PK) models of tacrolimus in adult transplant recipients have been published to characterize tacrolimus PK and facilitate dose individualization. This study aimed to (1) investigate clinical determinants influencing tacrolimus PK, and (2) identify areas requiring additional research to facilitate the use of population PK models to guide tacrolimus dosing decisions.

METHODS

The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, as well as the reference lists of all articles, were searched to identify population PK models of tacrolimus developed from adult transplant recipients published from the inception of the databases to 29 February 2020.

RESULTS

Of the 69 studies identified, 55% were developed from kidney transplant recipients and 30% from liver transplant recipients. Most studies (91%) investigated the oral immediate-release formulation of tacrolimus. Few studies (17%) explained the effect of drug-drug interactions on tacrolimus PK. Only 35% of the studies performed an external evaluation to assess the generalizability of the models. Studies related variability in tacrolimus whole blood clearance among transplant recipients to either cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A5 genotype (41%), days post-transplant (30%), or hematocrit (29%). Variability in the central volume of distribution was mainly explained by body weight (20% of studies).

CONCLUSION

The effect of clinically significant drug-drug interactions and different formulations and brands of tacrolimus should be considered for any future tacrolimus population PK model development. Further work is required to assess the generalizability of existing models and identify key factors that influence both initial and maintenance doses of tacrolimus, particularly in heart and lung transplant recipients.

Precision Dosing for Tacrolimus Using Genotypes and Clinical Factors in Kidney Transplant Recipients of European Ancestry

Genetic variation in the CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 (CYP3A4/5) genes, which encode the key enzymes in tacrolimus metabolism, is associated with tacrolimus clearance and dose requirements. Tacrolimus has a narrow therapeutic index with high intra- and intersubject variability, in part because of genetic variation. High tacrolimus clearance and low trough concentration are associated with a greater risk for rejection, whereas high troughs are associated with calcineurin-induced toxicity. The objective of this study was to develop a model of tacrolimus clearance with a dosing equation accounting for genotypes and clinical factors in adult kidney transplant recipients of European ancestry that could preemptively guide dosing. Recipients receiving immediate-release tacrolimus for maintenance immunosuppression from 2 multicenter studies were included. Participants in the GEN03 study were used for tacrolimus model development (n = 608 recipients) and was validated by prediction performance in the DeKAF Genomics study (n = 1361 recipients). Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was used to develop the apparent oral tacrolimus clearance (CL/F) model. CYP3A4/5 genotypes and clinical covariates were tested for their influence on CL/F. The predictive performance of the model was determined by assessing the bias (median prediction error [ME] and median percentage error [MPE]) and the precision (root median squared error [RMSE]) of the model. CYP3A5*3, CYP3A4*22, corticosteroids, calcium channel blocker and antiviral drug use, age, and diabetes significantly contributed to the interindividual variability of oral tacrolimus apparent clearance. The bias (ME, MPE) and precision (RMSE) of the final model was good, 0.49 ng/mL, 6.5%, and 3.09 ng/mL, respectively. Prospective testing of this equation is warranted.

Model-informed precision dosing to optimise immunosuppressive therapy in renal transplantation

Immunosuppressive therapy is pivotal for sustained allograft and patient survival after renal transplantation. However, optimally balanced immunosuppressive therapy is challenged by between-patient and within-patient pharmacokinetic (PK) variability. This could warrant the application of personalised dosing strategies to optimise individual patient outcomes. Pharmacometrics, the science that investigates the xenobiotic-biotic interplay using computer-aided mathematical modelling, provides options to describe and quantify this PK variability and enables identification of patient characteristics affecting immunosuppressant PK and treatment outcomes. Here, we review and critically appraise the available pharmacometric model-informed dosing solutions for the typical immunosuppressants in modern renal transplantation, to guide their initial and subsequent dosing.

Population pharmacokinetic analysis and dosing guidelines for tacrolimus co-administration with Wuzhi capsule in Chinese renal transplant recipients

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVES

Tacrolimus (TAC) is a first-line immunosuppressant which is used to prevent transplant rejection after solid organ transplantation (SOT). However, it has a narrow therapeutic index and high individual variability in pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacogenomics (PG). It has been reported that the metabolism of TAC can be affected by genetic factors, leading to different rates of metabolism in different subjects. Wuzhi Capsule (WZC) is a commonly used TAC-sparing agent in Chinese SOT to reduce TAC dosing due to its inhibitory effect on TAC metabolism by enzymes of the CYP3A subfamily. The aims of this study were to assess the effect of TAC+WZC co-administration and genetic polymorphism on the pharmacokinetics of TAC, by using a population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model. A dosing guideline for individualized TAC dosing is proposed based on the PPK study.

METHODS

The medical records of 165 adult patients with kidney transplant and their 824 TAC concentrations from two kidney transplantation centres were reviewed. The genotypes of four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CYP3A5*3 and ABCB1 (rs1128503, rs2032582 and rs1045642) were tested by MASSARRAY. A PPK model was constructed by nonlinear mixed effect model (NONMEM^® , Version 7.3). Finally, Monte Carlo simulations were employed to design initial dosing regimens based on the final model.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The one-compartmental PPK model with first-order absorption and elimination of TAC was established in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). CYP3A5*3 had significant impact on the PPK model. The haematocrit (HCT), postoperative time (POD) and CYP3A5*3 genotypes had a significant influence on TAC clearance when combined with WZC. The model was expressed as 23.4 × (HCT/0.3)^-0.729  × 0.837 (combination with WZC) × e^{-0.0875(POD/12.6)} ×1.18 (CYP3A5 expressors). For patients carrying the CYP3A5*3/*3 allele and with 30% HCT, the required TAC dose to achieve target trough concentrations of 10-15 ng/ml was 4 mg twice daily (q12h). For patients with the CYP3A5*3/*3 allele, the required dose was 3 mg TAC q12h when combined with WZC, and for patients with the CYP3A5*1/*1 or *1/*3 allele, the required dose was 4 mg of TAC q12h when co-administered with WZC.

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

Wuzhi Capsule co-administration and CYP3A5 variants affect the PK of TAC Dosing guidelines are made based on the PPK model to allow individualized administration of TAC, especially when co-administered with WZC.

Analyses of AUC(0–12) and C0 Compliances within Therapeutic Ranges in Kidney Recipients Receiving Cyclosporine or Tacrolimus

The AUC (area under the concentration time curve) is considered the pharmacokinetic exposure parameter best associated with clinical effects. Unfortunately, no prospective studies of clinical outcomes have been conducted in adult transplant recipients to investigate properly the potential benefits of AUC_(0–12) monitoring compared to the C₀-guided therapy. The aim of the present study was to compare two methods, C₀ (through level) and AUC_(0–12) (area under the concentration time curve), for assessing cyclosporine and tacrolimus concentrations. The study included 340 kidney recipients. The AUC_(0–12) was estimated using a Bayesian estimator and a three-point limited sampling strategy. Therapeutic drug monitoring of tacrolimus performed by using AUC_(0–12) and C₀ showed that tacrolimus in most cases is overdosed when considering C₀, while determination of the AUC_(0–12) showed that tacrolimus is effectively dosed for 27.8–40.0% of patients receiving only tacrolimus and for 25.0–31.9% of patients receiving tacrolimus with MMF (mycophenolate mofetil). In the 1–5 years post-transplantation group, 10% higher CsA (cyclosporine) dose was observed, which was proportionate with a 10% higher AUC_(0–12) exposure value. This indicates good compatibility of the dosage and the AUC(0–12) method. The Bland–Altman plot demonstrated that C₀ and AUC_(0–12) might be interchangeable methods, while the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve analysis of the C₀/AUC_(0–12) ratio in the tacrolimus-receiving patient group demonstrated reliable performance to predict IFTA (interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy) after kidney transplantation, with an ROC curve of 0.660 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.576–0.736), p < 0.01. Moreover, AUC_(0–12) and C₀ of tacrolimus depend on concomitant medication and adjustment of the therapeutic range for AUC_(0–12) might influence the results.

High Variability of Whole-Blood Tacrolimus Pharmacokinetics Early After Thoracic Organ Transplantation

Background and Objective

Oral tacrolimus is initiated perioperatively in heart and lung transplantation patients. There have been few studies on oral tacrolimus pharmacokinetics early post-transplantation, even though tacrolimus-related toxicity may occur early, potentially leading to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, we aimed to study the pharmacokinetics of oral tacrolimus in thoracic organ recipients during the first days after transplantation.

Methods

We conducted a pharmacokinetic study in 30 thoracic organ transplants at intensive care at the University Medical Center Utrecht in the first week post-transplantation. Twelve-hour whole-blood tacrolimus profiles were examined using high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC–MS/MS) and analysed via population pharmacokinetic modelling.

Results

The concentration–time profiles showed high variability. Concentrations at 12 h were outside the target range in 69% of the cases. A two-compartment model with mixed first-order and zero-order absorption adequately described tacrolimus concentrations. The typical value of the apparent clearance was 19.6 L/h (95% CI 16.2–22.9), and the apparent distribution volumes of central and peripheral compartments, V1 and V2, were 231 L (95% CI 199–267) and 521 L (95% CI 441–634), respectively. Inter-occasion (dose-to-dose) variability far exceeded the interindividual variability (IIV), with an estimated variability in relative bioavailability of 55% (95% CI 48.5–64.4).

Conclusions

The high variability of tacrolimus pharmacokinetics early after thoracic organ transplantation is largely due to excessive variability in bioavailability, making individualised dosing based on measured concentrations futile. To bypass this bioavailability issue, we suggest administering tacrolimus intravenously and aiming below the upper therapeutic range early post-transplantation.

Clinical Trial Registraion: NTR 3912/EudraCT 2012-001909-24.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s13318-019-00591-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Population pharmacokinetics model and initial dose optimization of tacrolimus in children and adolescents with lupus nephritis based on real-world data

The present study aimed to establish a population pharmacokinetics model of tacrolimus and further optimize the initial dosing regimen of tacrolimus in pediatric and adolescent patients with lupus nephritis (LN). Pediatric and adolescent patients with LN were recruited between August 2014 and September 2019 at the Children's Hospital of Fudan University (Shanghai, China). Relevant information was used to set up a population pharmacokinetics model with a Nonlinear Mixed Effect Model and the initial dosage regimen was simulated with the Monte Carlo method. Body weight and co-administration of wuzhi capsule were indicated to influence tacrolimus clearance in pediatric and adolescent patients with LN, and at the same body weight, the rate of tacrolimus clearance in patients without vs. with co-administration of wuzhi capsule was 1:0.71. In addition, in patients who were not administered wuzhi capsule, an initial dosage regimen of 0.15 mg/kg/day was recommended for a body weight of 10-23 kg and 0.10 mg/kg/day for 23-60 kg; in patients who were administered wuzhi capsule, an initial dosage regimen of 0.10 mg/kg/day was recommended for a body weight of 10-23 kg and 0.05 mg/kg/day for 23-60 kg. To the best of our knowledge, the present study was the first to establish a population pharmacokinetics model of tacrolimus in order to determine the optimal initial dosage regimen of tacrolimus in pediatric and adolescent patients with LN.

CYP3A5 gene polymorphisms and their impact on dosage and trough concentration of tacrolimus among kidney transplant patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Tacrolimus is an immunosuppressive drug widely used in kidney transplantation. Cytochrome P450 3A5 (CYP3A5) protein is involved in tacrolimus metabolism. Single nucleotide polymorphism in the CYP3A5 gene (6986A>G) results in alteration in metabolic activity of CYP3A5 protein which eventually affects the tacrolimus concentration. Patients with CYP3A5 expresser genotypes (A/A *1/*1 and A/G *1/*3) metabolize tacrolimus more rapidly than CYP3A5 nonexpressers (G/G *3/*3). We performed meta-analysis to estimate the effect of CYP3A5 polymorphism on the trough concentration-dose ratio (Co/D) and risk of renal allograft rejection with similar post-transplant periods and Asian vs. European populations. Our results showed that the tacrolimus Co/D ratio is significantly lower in CYP3A5 expresser group as compared with nonexpresser in Asian as well as in European populations at any post-transplant period (p < 0.00001). No significant association was found with renal allograft rejection episodes between expressers and nonexpressers in European populations (OR: 1.12; p = 0.47). Interestingly, Asian population (with expresser genotypes) and patients after 3 years post-transplantation (with expresser genotypes) have a higher risk of rejection (OR: 1.62; p < 0.05), (OR: 1.68; p < 0.05), respectively. This could be due to high prevalence of expresser genotypes in Asian population. Few tacrolimus-based studies are identified with long-term graft survival. There is a need to have more studies looking for long-term graft survival in expresser as well as no-expresser groups especially in Asian populations who have high frequency of CYP3A5 functional genotype.

Toward a robust tool for pharmacokinetic-based personalization of treatment with tacrolimus in solid organ transplantation: A model-based meta-analysis approach

AIMS

The objective of this study is to develop a generic model for tacrolimus pharmacokinetics modelling using a meta-analysis approach, that could serve as a first step towards a prediction tool to inform pharmacokinetics-based optimal dosing of tacrolimus in different populations and indications.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed and a meta-model developed with NONMEM software using a top-down approach. Historical (previously published) data were used for model development and qualification. In-house individual rich and sparse tacrolimus blood concentration profiles from adult and paediatric kidney, liver, lung and heart transplant patients were used for model validation. Model validation was based on successful numerical convergence, adequate precision in parameter estimation, acceptable goodness of fit with respect to measured blood concentrations with no indication of bias, and acceptable performance of visual predictive checks. External validation was performed by fitting the model to independent data from 3 external cohorts and remaining previously published studies.

RESULTS

A total of 76 models were found relevant for meta-model building from the literature and the related parameters recorded. The meta-model developed using patient level data was structurally a 2-compartment model with first-order absorption, absorption lag time and first-time varying elimination. Population values for clearance, intercompartmental clearance, central and peripheral volume were 22.5 L/h, 24.2 L/h, 246.2 L and 109.9 L, respectively. The absorption first-order rate and the lag time were fixed to 3.37/h and 0.33 hours, respectively. Transplanted organ and time after transplantation were found to influence drug apparent clearance whereas body weight influenced both the apparent volume of distribution and the apparent clearance. The model displayed good results as regards the internal and external validation.

CONCLUSION

A meta-model was successfully developed for tacrolimus in solid organ transplantation that can be used as a basis for the prediction of concentrations in different groups of patients, and eventually for effective dose individualization in different subgroups of the population.

Population pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in pediatric patients with systemic-onset juvenile idiopathic arthritis: Initial dosage recommendations

Pediatric patients with systemic-onset juvenile idiopathic arthritis (SOJIA) may be treated with tacrolimus. However, the therapeutic range for tacrolimus is narrow with considerable inter- and intra-individual variability, making it difficult to formulate an ideal dosage regimen for personalized treatment. The purpose of the present study was to set up a population pharmacokinetics (PPK) model of tacrolimus treatment for SOJIA to determine the optimal initial dosage. Patients with SOJIA were analyzed using non-linear mixed-effects modeling. Different regimens were analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation with concentration profiles. A first-order absorption and elimination one-compartment model was selected as the most appropriate model for SOJIA. Based on initial dosage recommendations, the regimen of 0.5 mg every 24 h (q24h) appeared to be most suitable for subjects with a body weight of 5 kg, while the 0.5 mg q12h regimen was most suitable for subjects with a body weight of 15–25 kg, the 1/0.5 mg q24h regimen was appropriate for the 26–35 kg group and the 1 mg q12h regimen was suitable for the subjects with a body weight of 36–50 kg. To the best of our knowledge, the present study established the first PPK model of tacrolimus treatment that may be used for the selection of the initial dose based on body weight of pediatric patients with SOJIA.

Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis of Immediate-Release Oral Tacrolimus Co-administered with Mycophenolate Mofetil in Corticosteroid-Free Adult Kidney Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Tacrolimus is the mainstay calcineurin inhibitor frequently administered with mycophenolic acid with or without corticosteroids to prevent graft rejection in adult kidney transplant recipients. The primary objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a population pharmacokinetic model characterizing immediate-release oral tacrolimus co-administered with mycophenolate mofetil (a pro-drug of mycophenolic acid) in adult kidney transplant recipients on corticosteroid-free regimens. The secondary objective was to investigate the effects of clinical covariates on the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus, emphasizing the interacting effects of mycophenolic acid.

METHODS

Population modeling and evaluation were conducted with Monolix (Suite-2018R1) using the stochastic approximation expectation-maximization algorithm in 49 adult subjects (a total of 320 tacrolimus whole-blood concentrations). Effects of clinical variables on tacrolimus pharmacokinetics were determined by population covariate modeling, regression modeling, and categorical analyses.

RESULTS

A two-compartment, first-order absorption with a lag-time, linear elimination, and constant error model best represented the population pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus. The apparent clearance value for tacrolimus was 17.9 l/h (6.95% relative standard error) in our model, which is lower compared with similar subjects on corticosteroid-based therapy. The glomerular filtration rate had significant effects on the apparent clearance and central compartment volume of distribution. Conversely, mycophenolic acid did not affect the apparent clearance of tacrolimus.

CONCLUSION

We have developed and internally evaluated a novel population pharmacokinetic model for tacrolimus co-administered with mycophenolate mofetil in corticosteroid-free adult kidney transplant patients. These findings are clinically important and provide further reasons for conducting therapeutic drug monitoring in this specific population.

Tacrolimus increases the expression level of the chemokine receptor CXCR2 to promote renal fibrosis progression

Tacrolimus is one of the most used and effective immunosuppressive agents currently available in the clinic; however, its use is limited by nephrotoxicity, which is the main secondary effect of this drug. The mechanisms underlying tacrolimus-induced nephrotoxicity remain unknown. The present study aimed to investigate the mechanism underlying tacrolimus-induced nephrotoxicity and to identify novel potential targets. Masson staining, Sirius red staining and periodic acid-silver methenamine staining were used to observe kidney pathological changes. Immunohistochemical and immunofluorescent analyses were performed to examine the expression levels of vimentin, E-cadherin and α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA). Transcriptomics and bioinformatics analyses were performed to investigate the nephrotoxicity mechanism induced by tacrolimus using RNA-sequencing, differentially expressed genes identification and annotation, and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway enrichment analysis. The present results demonstrated that compared with the normal control group, the tacrolimus nephrotoxicity group exhibited severe renal fibrosis (P<0.05), upregulated vimentin (P<0.01), downregulated E-cadherin (P<0.05) and upregulated α-SMA (P<0.01). Transcriptomics and bioinformatics analyses identified the pathway 'cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction' as the most significantly enriched (P<0.05). Moreover, KEGG pathway enrichment analysis identified that tacrolimus increased the expression levels of chemokine (C-X-C) motif ligand (CXCL)1, CXCL2 and CXCL3 and the chemokine receptor C-X-C chemokine receptor type 2 (CXCR2). Collectively, the present study suggested that tacrolimus increases the level of chemokine receptor CXCR2 to promote renal fibrosis progression, which is one of the potential mechanisms underlying tacrolimus-induced nephrotoxicity.

Tacrolimus troughs and genetic determinants of metabolism in kidney transplant recipients: A comparison of four ancestry groups

Tacrolimus trough and dose requirements vary dramatically between individuals of European and African American ancestry. These differences are less well described in other populations. We conducted an observational, prospective, multicenter study from which 2595 kidney transplant recipients of European, African, Native American, and Asian ancestry were studied for tacrolimus trough, doses, and genetic determinants of metabolism. We studied the well-known variants and conducted a CYP3A4/5 gene-wide analysis to identify new variants. Daily doses, and dose-normalized troughs were significantly different between the four groups (P < .001). CYP3A5*3 (rs776746) was associated with higher dose-normalized tacrolimus troughs in all groups but occurred at different allele frequencies and had differing effect sizes. The CYP3A5*6 (rs10264272) and *7 (rs413003343) variants were only present in African Americans. CYP3A4*22 (rs35599367) was not found in any of the Asian ancestry samples. We identified seven suggestive variants in the CYP3A4/5 genes associated with dose-normalized troughs in Native Americans (P = 1.1 × 10^-5 -8.8 × 10^-6 ) and one suggestive variant in Asian Americans (P = 5.6 × 10^-6 ). Tacrolimus daily doses and dose-normalized troughs vary significantly among different ancestry groups. We identified potential new variants important in Asians and Native Americans. Studies with larger populations should be conducted to assess the importance of the identified suggestive variants.

Model based development of tacrolimus dosing algorithm considering CYP3A5 genotypes and mycophenolate mofetil drug interaction in stable kidney transplant recipients

This study quantifies the interaction between tacrolimus (TAC) and mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) in kidney transplant recipients. Concentrations of TAC, mycophenolic acid (MPA), and metabolites were analyzed and relevant genotypes were determined from 32 patients. A population model was developed to estimate the effect of interaction. Concentrations of TAC were simulated in clinical scenarios and dose-adjusted trough concentrations per dose (C/D) were compared. Effect of interaction was described as the inverse exponential relationship. Major determinants of trough levels of TAC were CYP3A5 genotype and interaction with MPA. The absolute difference in C/D of TAC according to co-administered MMF was higher in CYP3A5 non-expressers (0.55 ng/mL) than in CYP3A5 expressers (0.35 ng/mL). The effect of MMF in determining the TAC exposure is more pronounced in CYP3A5 non-expressers. Based on population pharmacokinetic model, we suggest the TAC dosing algorithm considering the effects of CYP3A5 and MMF drug interaction in stable kidney transplant recipients.

Efficacy and safety of prolonged-release versus immediate-release tacrolimus inde novoliver transplant recipients in South Korea: a randomized open-label phase 4 study (MAPLE)

Background

Prolonged-release tacrolimus is associated with better long-term graft and patient survival than the immediate-release formulation in liver transplant patients. However, no clinical data are available to assess the efficacy and safety of early conversion from twice-daily, immediate-release tacrolimus to once-daily, prolonged-release tacrolimus in de novo liver transplant recipients in Korea.

Methods

A 24-week, randomized, open-label study was conducted in 36 liver transplant recipients. All patients received immediate- release tacrolimus (0.1–0.2 mg/kg/day, divided into two doses) for 4 weeks after transplantation, at which time 50% of the patients were converted, at a ratio of 1 mg to 1 mg, to prolonged-release tacrolimus (once-daily). The primary efficacy endpoint was the incidence of biopsy-confirmed acute rejection (BCAR) from weeks 4 to 24 after transplantation (per-protocol set). Medication adherence, adverse event profiles, laboratory tests, vital signs, and physical changes were also recorded.

Results

BCAR frequency at 24 weeks was similar between the two treatment groups; two cases (mean±standard deviation, 0.14±0.53 cases) of BCAR were reported in one patient treated with prolonged-release tacrolimus (n=14), while no such cases were reported among patients treated with immediate-release tacrolimus (n=12). The tacrolimus blood concentration at weeks 12 and 24, medication adherence, and adverse event profiles were also similar between the formulations, with no unusual laboratory test results, vital signs, or physical changes reported.

Conclusions

Early conversion to a simplified, once-daily, prolonged-release tacrolimus regimen may be an effective treatment option for liver transplant recipients in Korea. Larger-scale studies are warranted to confirm non-inferiority to immediate-release tacrolimus formulation in de novo liver transplant recipients.

A Minimal Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Model for Tacrolimus in Living-Donor Liver Transplantation: Perspectives Related to Liver Regeneration and the cytochrome P450 3A5 (CYP3A5) Genotype

In adult patients after living‐donor liver transplantation, postoperative days and the cytochrome P450 3A5 (CYP3A5) genotype are known to affect tacrolimus pharmacokinetics. In this study, we constructed a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic model adapted to the clinical data and evaluated the contribution of liver regeneration as well as hepatic and intestine CYP3A5 genotypes on tacrolimus pharmacokinetics. As a result, liver function recovered immediately and affected the total body clearance of tacrolimus only during a limited period after living‐donor liver transplantation. The clearance was about 1.35‐fold higher in the recipients who had a liver with the CYP3A5*1 allele than in those with the CYP3A5*3/*3 genotype, whereas bioavailability was ~0.7‐fold higher in the recipients who had intestines with the CYP3A5*1 allele than those with CYP3A5*3/*3. In conclusion, the constructed physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic model clarified that the oral clearance of tacrolimus was affected by the CYP3A5 genotypes in both the liver and intestine to the same extent.

Population pharmacokinetics and dosing regimen optimization of tacrolimus in Chinese pediatric hematopoietic stem cell transplantation patients

1. Several tacrolimus population pharmacokinetic (PPK) models in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) patients have been set up to recommend an optimal dosage schedule. However, the PPK model of Chinese pediatric HSCT patients has not been reported. The study is to investigate whether published PPK models of HSCT patients can be used to simulate Chinese pediatric HSCT patients and establish the tacrolimus PPK model of Chinese pediatric HSCT patients.2. Published PPK models were collected from the literature and assessed using Chinese pediatric HSCT patients via the individual prediction error method. The establishment of tacrolimus PPK model in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients was characterized with nonlinear mixed-effects modeling (NONMEM).3. Three published HSCT PPK models were identified, two of which could be applied to our external dataset. However, these models were dissatisfactory in terms of individual prediction error and, hence, inadequate for extrapolation. Finally, a new tacrolimus PPK model in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients was established. Based on the simulation results of our model, new initial dosage suggestions were recommended. In conclusion, the tacrolimus PPK model in Chinese pediatric HSCT patients was presented and the model could be used to predict individualized dosing regimens in children with HSCT.

Population pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in pediatric refractory nephrotic syndrome and a summary of other pediatric disease models

Different tacrolimus (TAC) population pharmacokinetic (PPK) models have been established in various pediatric disease populations. However, a TAC PPK model for pediatric refractory nephrotic syndrome (PRNS) has not been well characterized. The current study aimed to establish a TAC PPK model in Chinese PRNS and provide a summary of previous literature concerning TAC PPK models in different pediatric diseases. A total of 147 TAC conventional therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data from multiple blood samples obtained from 65 Chinese patients with PRNS were characterized using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. The impacts of demographic features, biological characteristics and drug combination were evaluated. Model validation was assessed using the bootstrap method. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination was determined to be the most suitable model for TDM data in PRNS. The absorption rate constant (Ka) was set at 4.48 h⁻¹. The typical values of apparent oral clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F) in the final model were 5.46 l/h and 57.1 l, respectively. The inter-individual variability of CL/F and V/F were 22.2 and 0.2%, respectively. The PPK equation for TAC was: CL/F = 5.46 × exponential function (EXP)(0.0323 × age) × EXP(−0.359 × cystatin-C) × EXP(0.148 × daily dose of TAC). No significant effects of covariates on V/F were observed. In conclusion, the current study developed and validated the first TAC PPK model for patients with PRNS. The study also provided a summary of previous literature concerning other TAC PPK models in different pediatric diseases.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Tacrolimus in Transplant Recipients: What Did We Learn About Sources of Interindividual Variabilities?

Tacrolimus, a calcineurin inhibitor, is a common immunosuppressant prescribed after organ transplantation and has notable inter- and intrapatient pharmacokinetic variability. The sources of variability have been investigated using population pharmacokinetic modeling over the last 2 decades. This article provides an updated synopsis on published nonlinear mixed-effects analyses developed for tacrolimus in transplant recipients. The objectives were to establish a detailed overview of the current data and to investigate covariate relationships determined by the models. Sixty-three published analyses were reviewed, and data regarding the study design, modeling approach, and resulting findings were extracted and summarized. Most of the studies investigated tacrolimus pharmacokinetics in adult and pediatric renal and liver transplants after administration of the immediate-release formulation. Model structures largely depended on the study sampling strategy, with ∼50% of studies developing a 1-compartment model using trough concentrations and a 2-compartment model with delayed absorption from intensive sampling. The CYP3A5 genotype, as a covariate, consistently impacted tacrolimus clearance, and dosing adjustments were required to achieve similar drug exposure among patients. Numerous covariates were identified as sources of interindividual variability on tacrolimus pharmacokinetics with limited consistency across these studies, which may be the result of the study designs. Additional analyses are required to further evaluate the potential impact of these covariates and the clinical implementation of these models to guide tacrolimus dosing recommendations. This article may be useful for guiding the design of future population pharmacokinetic studies and provides recommendations for the selection of an existing optimal model to individualize tacrolimus therapy.

Evaluating tacrolimus pharmacokinetic models in adult renal transplant recipients with different CYP3A5 genotypes

PURPOSE

Numerous studies have been conducted on the population pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in adult renal transplant recipients. It has been reported that the cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A5 genotype is an important cause of variability in tacrolimus pharmacokinetics. However, the predictive performance of population pharmacokinetic (PK) models of tacrolimus should be evaluated prior to their implementation in clinical practice. The aim of the study reported here was to test the predictive performance of these published PK models of tacrolimus.

METHODS

A literature search of the PubMed and Web of Science databases ultimately led to the inclusion of eight one-compartment models in our analysis. We collected a total of 1715 trough concentrations from 174 patients. Predictive performance was assessed based on visual and numerical comparison bias and imprecision and by the use of simulation-based diagnostics and Bayesian forecasting.

RESULTS

Of the eight one-compartment models assessed, seven showed better predictive performance in CYP3A5 extensive metabolizers in terms of bias and imprecision. Results of the simulation-based diagnostics also supported the findings. The model based on a Chinese population in 2013 (model 3) showed the best and most stable predictive performance in all the tests and was more informative in CYP3A5 extensive metabolizers. As expected, Bayesian forecasting improved model predictability. Diversity among models and between different CYP3A5 genotypes of the same model was also narrowed by Bayesian forecasting.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our results, we recommend using model 3 in CYP3A5 extensive metabolizers in clinical practice. All models had a poor predictive performance in CYP3A5 poor metabolizers, and they should be used with caution in this patient population. However, Bayesian forecasting improved the predictability and reduced differences, and thus the models could be applied in this latter patient population for the design of maintenance dose.

Increased Exposure of Tacrolimus by Co-administered Mycophenolate Mofetil: Population Pharmacokinetic Analysis in Healthy Volunteers

The objective of the study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions between tacrolimus (TAC) and mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) in healthy Korean male volunteers. Seventeen volunteers participated in a three-period, single-dose, and fixed sequence study. They sequentially received MMF, TAC, and the combination. Concentrations of TAC, mycophenolic acid (MPA), and its metabolites MPA 7-O-glucuronide and MPA acyl glucuronide were measured. The variants of CYP3A4, CYP3A5, SLCO1B1, SLCO1B3, ABCC2, UGT1A9, and UGT2B7 were genotyped. Drug interaction was evaluated with a non-compartmental analysis and population pharmacokinetic modelling to quantify the interaction effect. A total of 1,082 concentrations of those analytes were analysed. AUC_0-inf of TAC increased by 22.1% (322.4 ± 174.1 to 393.6 ± 121.7 ng·h/mL; P < 0.05) when co-administered with MMF, whereas the pharmacokinetic parameters of MPA and its metabolites were not changed by TAC. Apparent clearance (CL/F) of TAC was 17.8 L/h [relative standard error (RSE) 11%] or 13.8 L/h (RSE 11%) without or with MMF, respectively. Interaction was explained by the exponential model. The CYP3A5 genotype was the only significant covariate. The population estimate of CL/F of TAC was 1.48-fold (RSE 16%) in CYP3A5 expressers when compared to nonexpressers. CL/F of TAC was decreased when co-administered with MMF in these subjects.

Population pharmacokinetics and Bayesian estimation of tacrolimus exposure in Chinese liver transplant patients

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVES

Tacrolimus (TAC) is widely used as part of immunosuppressive regimens. There is great interindividual variation on the disposition of TAC. The aim of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model for Chinese liver transplant patients and evaluate genetic polymorphism and other possible factors on the PK parameters. The exposure of TAC is to be estimated through Bayesian modelling.

METHODS

A total of 47 sets of rich-time PK and 1234 conventional therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data were collected from 125 Chinese liver transplant patients. The pathophysiological data of these patients were recorded. CYP3A5*3 and ABCB1 genotypes were determined for each patient. The PPK model for TAC was established by nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (nonmem). The impact of pathophysiology and genotype on PPK parameters was evaluated. Bayesian estimators for the area under concentration-time curve (AUC) of TAC were validated.

RESULTS

A two-compartment model with lag time was found to be the most suitable model for the pooled full PK and TDM data for Chinese liver transplant patients. The CL/F, V₂ /F, Q/F, V₃ /F, K_a and lag time were 17.4±0.81 L/h, 165±44.1 L, 54.9±25.8L/h, 594±87.5 L, 0.51±0.095 L/h and 1.57±0.34 h. Post-operative day (POD), creatinine clearance (CLcr) and ABCB1 C3435T genotypes were found to have significant influences on CL/F (P<.01). ABCB1 C3435T genotypes showed a significant correlation with V₂ /F (P<.01). C₀ -C₂ and C₀ -C₂ -C₄ were shown to be suitable for the estimation of AUC in Chinese liver transplant patients.

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

A PPK model for TAC was established successfully in Chinese liver transplant patients. POD, CLcr and ABCB1 C3435T genotypes were shown to have significant effects on CL/F. The AUC of TAC in Chinese liver transplant patients could be estimated through Bayesian modelling, based on which individualized immunosuppressive regimens can be designed.

Tacrolimus population pharmacokinetics according to CYP3A5 genotype and clinical factors in Chinese adult kidney transplant recipients

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVES

Tacrolimus is characterized by a narrow therapeutic index and a considerable inter- and intraindividual pharmacokinetic variability. The aim of our study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of tacrolimus in adult kidney transplant of Chinese patients, identify factors especially CYP3A5*3 genetic polymorphism that explain variability, and determine dosage regimens.

METHODS

Pharmacogenomic data obtained from 83 Chinese kidney transplant patients treated with tacrolimus were determined using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Trough blood concentration data were collected from all of the patients during the 12 months of post-transplantation days and were analysed using the nonlinear mixed-effects modelling program. After building the final model, 1000 bootstraps were performed to validate the final model.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination adequately described the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus. In this study, we observed that POD, HCT and CYP3A5*3 genotype were determinant factors in CL/F and POD related with V/F of tacrolimus significantly. The final model with the clearance covariates was presented as: Cl/F=THETA(1)*EXP(THETA(4)*(83/POD))*(39.1/HCT)**THETA(5)*EXP(THETA(6)*CYP3A5), and the final model with the volume covariates was presented as: Vd/F=THETA(2)*POD**THETA(3). The Ka was fixed to 4.5 h^-1 .

WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION

The HCT, CYP3A5*3 genetic polymorphism and POD contributed to the interindividual variability of oral tacrolimus in Chinese adult renal transplant patients.

Individualizing liver transplant immunosuppression using a phenotypic personalized medicine platform

Postoperative liver transplant immunosuppression was personalized using a phenotypic, disease mechanism–independent and indication-agnostic approach.

External evaluation of published population pharmacokinetic models of tacrolimus in adult renal transplant recipients

AIM

Several tacrolimus population pharmacokinetic models in adult renal transplant recipients have been established to facilitate dose individualization. However, their applicability when extrapolated to other clinical centres is not clear. This study aimed to (1) evaluate model external predictability and (2) analyze potential influencing factors.

METHODS

Published models were screened from the literature and were evaluated using an external dataset with 52 patients (609 trough samples) collected by postoperative day 90 via methods that included (1) prediction-based prediction error (PE%), (2) simulation-based prediction- and variability-corrected visual predictive check (pvcVPC) and normalized prediction distribution error (NPDE) tests and (3) Bayesian forecasting to assess the influence of prior observations on model predictability. The factors influencing model predictability, particularly the impact of structural models, were evaluated.

RESULTS

Sixteen published models were evaluated. In prediction-based diagnostics, the PE% within ±30% was less than 50% in all models, indicating unsatisfactory predictability. In simulation-based diagnostics, both the pvcVPC and the NPDE indicated model misspecification. Bayesian forecasting improved model predictability significantly with prior 2-3 observations. The various factors influencing model extrapolation included bioassays, the covariates involved (CYP3A5*3 polymorphism, postoperative time and haematocrit) and whether non-linear kinetics were used.

CONCLUSIONS

The published models were unsatisfactory in prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics, thus inappropriate for direct extrapolation correspondingly. However Bayesian forecasting could improve the predictability considerably with priors. The incorporation of non-linear pharmacokinetics in modelling might be a promising approach to improving model predictability.

Genotype-guided tacrolimus dosing in African-American kidney transplant recipients

Tacrolimus is dependent on CYP3A5 enzyme for metabolism. Expression of the CYP3A5 enzyme is controlled by several alleles including CYP3A5*1, CYP3A5*3, CYP3A5*6 and CYP3A5*7. African Americans (AAs) have on average higher tacrolimus dose requirements than Caucasians; however, some have requirements similar to Caucasians. Studies in AAs have primarily evaluated the CYP3A5*3 variant; however, there are other common nonfunctional variants in AAs (CYP3A5*6 and CYP3A5*7) that do not occur in Caucasians. These variants are associated with lower dose requirements and may explain why some AAs are metabolically similar to Caucasians. We created a tacrolimus clearance model in 354 AAs using a development and validation cohort. Time after transplant, steroid and antiviral use, age and CYP3A5*1, *3, *6 and *7 alleles were significant toward clearance. This study is the first to develop an AA-specific genotype-guided tacrolimus dosing model to personalize therapy.