Operationalizing the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems in public policy

Synergies and complementarities between ecosystem accounting and the Red List of Ecosystems

Safeguarding biodiversity and human well-being depends on sustaining ecosystems. Two global standards for quantifying ecosystem change, the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) and the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting Ecosystem Accounting (EA), underpin headline indicators for the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We analyse similarities and differences between the standards to understand their complementary roles in environmental policy and decision-making. The standards share key concepts, definitions of ecosystems and spatial data needs, meaning that similar data can be used in both. Their complementarities stem from their differing purposes and thus how data are analysed and interpreted. Although both record changes in ecosystem extent and condition, the RLE analyses the magnitude of change in terms of risk of ecosystem collapse and biodiversity loss, whereas EA links ecosystem change with the ecosystem's contributions to people and the economy. We recommend that the RLE and EA should not be treated as unrelated nor undertaken in isolation. Developing them in concert can exploit their complementarities while ensuring consistency in foundational data, in particular ecosystem classifications, maps and condition variables. Finding pathways for co-investment in foundational data, and for knowledge-sharing between people and organizations who undertake RLE assessments and accounting, will improve both processes and outcomes for biodiversity, ecosystems and people.

Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate

Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.

Roles of the Red List of Ecosystems in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity set the agenda for global aspirations and action to reverse biodiversity loss. The GBF includes an explicit goal for maintaining and restoring biodiversity, encompassing ecosystems, species and genetic diversity (goal A), targets for ecosystem protection and restoration and headline indicators to track progress and guide action1. One of the headline indicators is the Red List of Ecosystems2, the global standard for ecosystem risk assessment. The Red List of Ecosystems provides a systematic framework for collating, analysing and synthesizing data on ecosystems, including their distribution, integrity and risk of collapse3. Here, we examine how it can contribute to implementing the GBF, as well as monitoring progress. We find that the Red List of Ecosystems provides common theory and practical data, while fostering collaboration, cross-sector cooperation and knowledge sharing, with important roles in 16 of the 23 targets. In particular, ecosystem maps, descriptions and risk categories are key to spatial planning for halting loss, restoration and protection (targets 1, 2 and 3). The Red List of Ecosystems is therefore well-placed to aid Parties to the GBF as they assess, plan and act to achieve the targets and goals. We outline future work to further strengthen this potential and improve biodiversity outcomes, including expanding spatial coverage of Red List of Ecosystems assessments and partnerships between practitioners, policy-makers and scientists.

The impact of research on health education/health literacy on policymaking in Latin America and the Caribbean Region

Background

In this study, we addressed the gap between health research and policymaking in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), focusing on health education/health literacy. Despite growing research, translating findings into effective policies needs to be improved. We explored the factors that make research on health education and health literacy to be referenced and mentioned in policy documents in LAC (and in Peru). We proposed a model based on the hypothesis that the relationship between research and policymaking depends on the research strength of scientific evidence, timing, and social media activity.

Methods

A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining quantitative and qualitative data analysis. Quantitative data sources included multidisciplinary databases, altmetric data, and citations of policy documents. For data analysis, we obtained descriptive statistics to identify patterns and then verified the association between variables using χ2. The negative binomial regression was used to test the empirical model introduced above. Quantitative analysis was complemented by analysis of responses to a set of open questions from a sample of Peruvian health policymakers.

Results

We found that timing, strength of evidence, and social media activity were significant predictors of research cited in policy documents. Policy documents tended to rely more on qualitative evidence. A positive correlation between timing and cites in policy documents highlighted the importance of timely dissemination, whereas social media activity, while having an impact, had a relatively minor effect. Peruvian policymakers' responses emphasized the role of political context, the relevance of results, and policymakers' commitment to incorporating research into policies.

Conclusion

Strength of evidence, social media engagement, and publication timing are key predictors of citations for health education/literacy research in LAC policy documents. However, qualitative findings highlight challenges, including some distrust in research findings, together with limited access to relevant research. The findings offer opportunities to enhance evidence-informed health education/health literacy policy decisions.

Implications

To increase the influence on health policymakers, researchers should prioritize the timely dissemination of solid evidence, considering both traditional and digital platforms. Policymakers should focus on the quality and relevance of evidence when formulating policies.

Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.

Multiscale spatial analysis of headwater vulnerability in South-Central Chile reveals a high threat due to deforestation and climate change

Headwaters represent an essential component of hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomical systems, by providing constant water streams to the complete basin. However, despite the high importance of headwaters, there is a lack of vulnerability assessments worldwide. Identifying headwaters and their vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner can enable restauration and conservation programs. In this study, we assess the vulnerability of headwaters in South-Central Chile (38.4 to 43.2°S) considering multiple degradation factors related to climate change and land cover change. We analyzed 2292 headwaters, characterizing multiple factors at five spatial scales by using remote sensing data related to Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC), human disturbances, vegetation cover, climate change, potential water demand, and physiography. We then generated an index of vulnerability by integrating all the analyzed variables, which allowed us to map the spatial distribution of headwater vulnerability. Finally, to estimate the main drivers of degradation, we performed a Principal Components Analysis with an Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering, that allowed us to group headwaters according to the analyzed factors. The largest proportion of most vulnerable headwaters are located in the north of our study area with 48.1 %, 62.1 %, and 28.1 % of headwaters classified as highly vulnerable at 0, 10, and 30 m scale, respectively. The largest proportion of headwaters are affected by Climate Change (63.66 %) and LUCC (23.02 %) on average across all scales. However, we identified three clusters, in which the northern cluster is mainly affected by LUCC, while the Andean and Coastal clusters are mainly affected by climate change. Our results and methods present an informative picture of the current state of headwater vulnerability, identifying spatial patterns and drivers at multiple scales. We believe that the approach developed in this study could be useful for new studies in other zones of the world and can also promote Chilean headwater conservation.

Surviving in a hostile landscape: Nothofagus alessandrii remnant forests threatened by mega-fires and exotic pine invasion in the coastal range of central Chile

Nothofagus alessandrii, categorized as Endangered on the IUCN Red List, is an endemic, deciduous tree species of the coastal range of central Chile. We assessed the effects of fire severity, invasion by the exotic fire-prone Pinus radiata, and land-cover composition and configuration of the landscape on the resilience of fragments of N. alessandrii after a mega-fire in 2017. We used remote sensing data to estimate land-use classes and cover, fire severity and invasion cover of P. radiata. We monitored forest composition and structure and post-fire responses of N. alessandrii forests in situ for 2 years after the mega-fire. In the coastal Maule region wildfires have been favoured by intense drought and widespread exotic pine plantations, increasing the ability of fire-adapted invasive species to colonize native forest remnants. Over 85% of N. alessandrii forests were moderately or severely burnt. The propagation and severity of fire was probably amplified by the exotic pines located along the edges of, or inside, the N. alessandrii fragments and the highly flammable pine plantations surrounding these fragments (> 60% of land use is pine plantations). Pinus radiata, a fire-adapted pioneer species, showed strong post-fire recruitment within the N. alessandrii fragments, especially those severely burnt. Positive feedback between climate change (i.e. droughts and heat waves), wildfires and pine invasions is driving N. alessandrii forests into an undesirable and probably irreversible state (i.e. a landscape trap). A large-scale restoration programme to design a diverse and less flammable landscape is needed to avoid the loss of these highly threatened forest ecosystems.

Revised criteria system for a national assessment of threatened habitats in Germany

The Red List of threatened habitat types in Germany was first published in 1994 and it is updated approximately every ten years. In 2017 the third version was published by the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation. In the course of the revision, the criteria system was also extended. In doing so, an attempt was made to find a compromise between the consideration of international developments that had taken place and existing national requirements. In particular, short-term developments should become visible through the German Red List status. In addition to ‘National long-term Threat’, the valuation now also includes ‘Current Trend’ and ‘Rarity’. Following the IUCN’s approach, the collapse risk is now represented on the basis of several criteria. However, in contrast to the IUCN procedure, where the worst evaluated criterion is determinative for Red List status, in our procedure all criteria are included in the evaluation. To counteract misleading signal-effects for management decisions, all significant criteria have an influence on the resulting German Red List status (RLG). They are combined in an assessment scheme. In order to map the overall risk of loss, both the long-term threat as a historical reference value and furthermore the current trend must have an influence on RLG. As a result, 65% of habitat types have differing risk of loss.