Biodiversity post‐2020: Closing the gap between global targets and national‐level implementation

Global impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on biodiversity data collection

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered different governmental responses across borders, with cascading effects on people's movements and on biodiversity data collection. We quantified changes in the number of species occurrence records collected during the first global lockdown (March 15th to May 1st 2020) relative to pre-pandemic levels using data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). We modelled how such changes relate to the stringency of governmental policy responses, changes in human mobility, and countries' population size and economic class across 129 countries. We further focused on data from the community science project eBird, which constitutes the largest dataset in GBIF, to investigate changes in participation and activity patterns of individual observers (eBirders) during the lockdown. We found that the decreases in GBIF records correlated with declines in numbers of visitors to parks and outdoor areas, and were significantly larger in developing countries compared to developed ones. While the activity ranges of eBirders shrunk across all countries analysed, the number of eBirders in developing and least developed countries declined more than in developed countries, as the lockdown disrupted the influx of international visitors. Our results suggest that community-based, local monitoring programmes are essential to reduce biases in global biodiversity monitoring.

Ambitions in national plans do not yet match bold international protection and restoration commitments

Almost 200 nations have made bold commitments to halt biodiversity loss as signatories to the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). The effective achievement of the GBF relies on domestic targets and actions, reflected in National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). NBSAPS are an integral feature of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) framework and signatory nations were requested to submit revised NBSAPs before the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP-16) incorporating the GBF goals and targets. Here we review NBSAPs of the 36 nations that submitted before COP-16 and assess their commitments to implementing target 2 (the 30% restoration target) and target 3 (the 30 × 30 protection target). By first breaking these targets into their constituent elements and assessing the detailed wording of each NBSAP we discover that no nation has created a plan that meets all the requirements-and overall ambitions-of these two targets. With 5 years remaining until the intended realization of the GBF, countries will need to increase both their ambition and action if the biodiversity crisis of the Earth is to be abated.

Identifying Major Factors for Success and Failure of Conservation Programs in Europe

In Europe, various conservation programs adopted to maintain or restore biodiversity have experienced differing levels of success. However, a synthesis about major factors for success of biodiversity-related conservation programs across ecosystems and national boundaries, such as incentives, subsidies, enforcement, participation, or spatial context, is missing. Using a balanced scorecard survey among experts, we analyzed and compared factors contributing to success or failure of three different conservation programs: two government programs (Natura 2000 and the ecological measures of the Water Framework Directive) and one conservation program of a non-governmental organization (NGO; Rewilding Europe), all focusing on habitat and species conservation. The experts perceived the NGO program as more successful in achieving biodiversity-related aims than governmental conservation legislation. Among the factors perceived to influence the success of biodiversity conservation, several stood out: Biodiversity-damaging subsidies, external economic interests competing with conservation goals or policies conflicting with biodiversity conservation were recognized as major factors for the lack of conservation success. Outreach to raise societal interest and awareness as well as stakeholder involvement were perceived as closely related to the success of programs. Our expert survey demonstrated that external factors from economy and policy often hinder success of conservation programs, while societal and environmental factors rather contribute to it. This study implies that conservation programs should be designed to be as inclusive as possible and provides a basis for developing a standardized methodology that explicitly considers indirect drivers from areas such as economy, policy and society.

Multidimensional patterns of bird diversity and its driving forces in the Yangtze River Basin of China

Biodiversity is fundamental to human well-being and economic development. The Yangtze River, the largest river in China, faces biodiversity loss due to habitat degradation, climate change, and other anthropogenic threats. However, the long-term changes in the region's biodiversity remain poorly understood. Here, we constructed an optimized living planet index (LPIO) by combining Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling and Random Forest Modeling. Using data from a monitoring network of 536 sites, we observed an increasing trend in terrestrial bird diversity and functional complexity across the entire watershed from 2011 to 2020. Our findings indicate that a large-scale ecological restoration program has contributed to increases in terrestrial and aquatic bird diversity in the Yangtze River Basin. In contrast, bird diversity in the downstream area has decreased by 2.83%, largely due to a rapid decline in wetland birds. The degradation of wetland habitats and insufficient conservation measures have negatively impacted bird diversity in the downstream region. This suggests that although there have been significant improvements in terrestrial bird diversity, more effective wetland restoration is necessary for biodiversity conservation. We recommend optimizing the national large-scale biodiversity monitoring network and increasing the number of upstream monitoring sites.

Exploring policy coherence for land use transformations: The case of Scotland

The multiple crises (climate, biodiversity, austerity) facing our socio-ecological systems require ambitious responses; with much of the responsibility for protecting public goods and developing sustainably lying with public policy. To tackle these wicked problems, there are increasing calls for policy coherence: to use the levers of government in a more holistic and systemic manner. Land use transformation is crucial to achieving these ambitions. However, there is limited scholarship that takes a comprehensive approach to analysing policy coherence (both horizontal and vertical). Common to many nation-states, the Scottish Government has made ambitious pledges to address climate action (mitigation and adaptation) and nature, with an emphasis on leaving no one behind e.g., net zero by 2045 using Just Transitions. In this research we examine the policy coherence of 66 Scottish land use related policies in addressing land use transformation, as well as an in-depth coherence analysis of 11 agricultural policies. We address three research questions on the synergies and problems in policy coherence for land use transformation, as well as opportunities for improvement. Overall, we found that half of the 66 policies examined advanced land use transformation, but we query the possibility of hidden conflicts. The in-depth coherence analysis highlighted that when looking at the agricultural policies as a collective, coherence was clear, however, on the individual level it was not. Our paper shows that whilst challenging to implement, paying attention to multiple forms of policy coherence can highlight opportunities to consider when revising or designing policies for these pressing problems.

Behavioral and functional responses of different bird clades to offshore windfarms in yellow sea, China

Offshore windfarms (OWFs) constitute a rapidly expanding source of renewable energy that inevitably affects marine biodiversity, especially those built within critical areas for biodiversity conservation. To understand the potential effect of OWFs on bird communities, we systematically tracked bird communities and their behavior within OWFs near the Migratory Bird Sanctuaries along the Coast of the Yellow Sea in China from 2020 to 2022 using voyage investigations. The results indicated that bird diversity was greater within OWFs than in seawaters away from the OWFs. The composition of the bird community varied at different distance scales and the closer to the windfarm, the higher the number of birds from the Laridae and Anatidae. In addition, the flight heights of Laridae, Accipitridae, and Anatidae overlapped with the rotor-swept zones, and there were significant altitudinal variations in the OWFs and nearby waters. Based on 16 functional traits and the devised risk assessment function, we found that OWFs could have distinct impacts on different birds. Birds of the family Accipitridae, which have a larger body size, are likely to experience more stress from OWFs than other families. And, fish-eating birds, such as Laridae and Anatidae, have higher risk scores due to their closer proximity to the windfarm, medium body size and greater number of individuals. However, Passeriformes with smaller body size and fewer individuals have lower risk values. Our study revealed in detail the different strategies used by birds to cope with OWFs and provides a theoretical basis for rationalizing the conservation of bird diversity at these locations.

Mining threats in high-level biodiversity conservation policies

Amid a global infrastructure boom, there is increasing recognition of the ecological impacts of the extraction and consumption of construction minerals, mainly processed as concrete, including significant and expanding threats to global biodiversity. We investigated how high-level national and international biodiversity conservation policies address mining threats, with a special focus on construction minerals. We conducted a review and quantified the degree to which threats from mining these minerals are addressed in biodiversity goals and targets under the 2011-2020 and post-2020 biodiversity strategies, national biodiversity strategies and action plans, and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Mining appeared rarely in national targets but more frequently in national strategies. Yet, in most countries, it was superficially addressed. Coverage of aggregates mining was greater than coverage of limestone mining. We outline 8 key components, tailored for a wide range of actors, to effectively mainstream biodiversity conservation into the extractive, infrastructure, and construction sectors. Actions include improving reporting and monitoring systems, enhancing the evidence base around mining impacts on biodiversity, and modifying the behavior of financial agents and businesses. Implementing these measures could pave the way for a more sustainable approach to construction mineral use and safeguard biodiversity.

Do phylogenetic community metrics reveal the South African quartz fields as terrestrial-habitat islands?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The quartz fields of the Greater Cape Floristic Region (GCFR) are arid and island-like special habitats, hosting ~142 habitat-specialized plant species, of which 81 % are local endemics, characterized by a rapid turnover of species between and among sites. We use several phylogenetic community metrics: (1) to examine species diversity and phylogenetic structure within and among quartz fields; (2) to investigate whether quartz field specialists are evolutionarily drawn from local species pools, whereas the alternative hypothesis posits that there is no significant evolutionary connection between quartz field specialists and the local species pools; and (3) to determine whether there is an association between certain traits and the presence of species in quartz fields.

METHODS

We sampled and developed dated phylogenies for six species-rich angiosperm families (Aizoaceae, Asteraceae, Crassulaceae, Cyperaceae, Fabaceae and Santalaceae) represented in the quartz field floras of southern Africa. Specifically, we focused on the flora of three quartz field regions in South Africa (Knersvlakte, Little Karoo and Overberg) and their surrounding species pools to address our research questions by scoring traits associated with harsh environments.

KEY RESULTS

We found that the Overberg and Little Karoo had the highest level of species overlap for families Aizoaceae and Fabaceae, whereas the Knersvlakte and the Overberg had the highest species overlap for families Asteraceae, Crassulaceae and Santalaceae. Although our phylogenetic community structure and trait analyses showed no clear patterns, relatively low pairwise phylogenetic distances between specialists and their local species pools for Aizoaceae suggest that quartz species could be drawn evolutionarily from their surrounding areas. We also found that families Aizoaceae and Crassulaceae in Knersvlakte and Little Karoo were phylogenetically even.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite their proximity to one another within the GCFR, the studied areas differ in their species pools and the phylogenetic structure of their specialists. Our work provides further justification for increased conservation focus on these unique habitats under future scenarios of global change.

Effects of human depopulation and warming climate on bird populations in Japan

Quantifying biodiversity trends in economically developed countries, where depopulation, associated secondary succession, and climate warming are ongoing, provides insights for global biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of secondary succession and climate warming on species' population trends at a national scale. We estimated the population trends of common breeding bird species in Japan and examined the associations between the overall population trend and species traits with the nationwide bird count data on 47 species collected from 2009 to 2020. The overall population trend varied among species. Four species populations increased moderately, 18 were stable, and 11 declined moderately. Population trends for 13 species were uncertain. The difference in overall trends among the species was associated with their habitat group and temperature niche. Species with relatively low-temperature niches experienced more pronounced declines. Multispecies indicators showed a moderate increase in forest specialists and moderate declines in forest generalists (species that use both forests and open habitats) and open-habitat specialists. Forest generalists and open-habitat specialists also declined more rapidly at sites with more abandoned farmland. All species groups showed an accelerated decline or decelerated increase after 2015. These results suggest that common breeding birds in Japan are facing deteriorating trends as a result of nationwide changes in land use and climate. Future land-use planning and policies should consider the benefits of passive rewilding for forest specialists and active restoration measures (e.g., low-intensive forestry and agriculture) for nonforest specialists to effectively conserve biodiversity in the era of human depopulation and climate warming.

Implications of extinction in law: Preventing, declaring and learning from species extinctions

Biodiversity laws around the world differ, but, at their core, these laws promote the fundamental objective of preventing environmental decline and species extinctions. A variety of legal mechanisms have been implemented in domestic laws around the world to achieve this objective, including protection for habitat, environmental impact assessments and threatened species recovery plans. In many jurisdictions, if these mechanisms fail to protect a species, it may be legally declared extinct, or added to a formal list of those that have been lost. This article examines the conservation purpose and legal implications for laws about extinction. A legal power to recognise a species as extinct has the potential to foster ambition, transparency and rigorous measurement of progress against conservation goals. However, in practice, efforts to prevent extinction are applied selectively. Without an obligation to learn from extinctions, recognition of species extinctions in law may have perverse effects, or no effect at all. This article proposes a conceptual model for the role of law in relation to extinctions, highlighting opportunities to improve legal frameworks to achieve more productive and positive conservation outcomes, even as climate change and other pressures drive many more species towards extinction.

Marine spatial planning to solve increasing conflicts at sea: A framework for prioritizing offshore windfarms and marine protected areas

Direct and indirect anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems are expected to lower the provided ecosystem services (ES) in the near future. To limit these impacts, protected areas will be implemented as part of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. Simultaneously, as an answer to climate change, renewable energies are being rapidly developed on a worldwide scale, leading to a significant increase in space use in the coming decades. Sharing space is an increasingly complex task, especially because of the high rate of emergence of such competitors for space. In fisheries-dominated socio-ecosystems, acceptability of offshore windfarms (OWFs) and marine protected areas (MPAs) is usually very low, partly due to an underrepresentation of fisheries in spatial plans and poor attention to equity in the spatial distribution of restrictive areas. Here we developed a framework with a marine spatial planning case study in the Bay of Biscay represented by the socio-ecosystem of the Grande Vasière, a mid-shelf mud belt spanning over 21,000 km². We collected biological, environmental, and anthropogenic data to model the distribution of 62 bentho-demersal species, 7 regulating ES layers related to nutrient cycling, life cycle maintenance and food web functioning, as well as provisioning ES of 18 commercial species and 82 fisheries subdivisions. We used these spatial layers and a prioritization algorithm to explore siting scenarios of OWFs and two types of MPAs (benthic and total protection), aimed at conserving species, regulating and provisioning ES, while also ensuring that fisheries are equitably impacted. We demonstrate that equitable scenarios are not necessarily costlier and provide alternative spatial prioritizations. We emphasize the importance of exploring multiple targets with a Shiny app to visualize results and stimulate dialogue among stakeholders and policymakers. Overall, we show how our flexible, inclusive framework with particular attention to equity could be an ideal discussion tool to improve management practices.

Bridging adaptive management and reinforcement learning for more robust decisions

From out-competing grandmasters in chess to informing high-stakes healthcare decisions, emerging methods from artificial intelligence are increasingly capable of making complex and strategic decisions in diverse, high-dimensional and uncertain situations. But can these methods help us devise robust strategies for managing environmental systems under great uncertainty? Here we explore how reinforcement learning (RL), a subfield of artificial intelligence, approaches decision problems through a lens similar to adaptive environmental management: learning through experience to gradually improve decisions with updated knowledge. We review where RL holds promise for improving evidence-informed adaptive management decisions even when classical optimization methods are intractable and discuss technical and social issues that arise when applying RL to adaptive management problems in the environmental domain. Our synthesis suggests that environmental management and computer science can learn from one another about the practices, promises and perils of experience-based decision-making. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Understanding and overcoming obstacles in adaptive management

Adaptive management (AM) is widely promoted to improve management of natural resources, yet its implementation is challenging. We show that obstacles to the implementation of AM are related not only to the AM process per se but also to external factors such as ecosystem properties and governance systems. To overcome obstacles, there is a need to build capacities within the AM process by ensuring adequate resources, management tools, collaboration, and learning. Additionally, building capacities in the legal and institutional frames can enable the necessary flexibility in the governance system. Furthermore, in systems experiencing profound changes in wildlife populations, building such capacities may be even more critical as more flexibility will be needed to cope with increased uncertainty and changed environmental conditions.

Mainstreaming the Ambition, Coherence, and Comprehensiveness of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework Into Conservation Policy

Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity are finalizing a new Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) to more effectively guide efforts by the world’s nations to address global loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Each party is required to mainstream the new framework and its component targets into national conservation strategies. To date, such strategies have been criticized as largely aspirational and lacking clear linkages to national policy mechanisms, which has contributed to the world’s general failure to meet the Convention’s previous targets. We use the United States and European Union as examples to compare and contrast opportunities and barriers for mainstreaming the GBF more effectively into policy. The European Union and United States have unique relationships to the Convention, the former being the only supranational party and the latter, having signed but never ratified the treaty, adopting Convention targets on an ad hoc basis. The contrasting conservation policy frameworks of these two polities illustrate several conceptual issues central to biodiversity conservation and demonstrate how insights from the GBF can strengthen biodiversity policy even in atypical contexts. We focus on three characteristics of the GBF which are essential if policy is to effectively motivate and guide efforts to halt and reverse biodiversity loss: comprehensiveness, coherence, and ambition. Statutes in both the United States and European Union provide a strong foundation for mainstreaming the GBF’s comprehensiveness, coherence, and ambition, but policy development and implementation falls short. We identify six common themes among the reforms needed to successfully achieve targets for reversing biodiversity loss: broadening conservation focus to all levels of biodiversity, better coordinating conservation strategies that protect sites and landscapes with those focused on biodiversity elements (e.g., species), coordinating biodiversity conservation with efforts to safeguard ecosystem services including ecosystem-based climate mitigation and adaptation, more coherent scaling of targets from global to local extents, adoption of a more ambitious vision for recovery of biodiversity, and development of effective tracking and accountability mechanisms.