A long-term analysis, modeling and drivers of forest recovery in Central Mexico

This study aims to evaluate the changes in forest cover from 1994 to 2015, identify the key drivers of forest recovery, and predict future trends. Using high-resolution remote sensing data, we mapped forest canopy density into detailed categories (closed > 50%, open 10-50%, and deforested < 10%) to differentiate processes like degradation, deforestation, densification, reforestation, and afforestation. A multinomial logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between the forest processes and socioeconomic, proximity, planning, and policy potential drivers. Future trends were modeled using the Land Change Modeler. The analysis showed that 81.5% of the area remained unchanged, 14% experienced recovery, and 4.5% faced disturbances. Factors such as elevation, proximity to roads, and participation in payment for environmental services (PES) programs significantly influenced recovery trends. Predictive modeling for 2035 suggests forest cover will increase by 7%, reaching 77% coverage of the study area, and closed forest areas will rise by 12% compared to 1994. The findings underscore the effectiveness of conservation efforts and natural regeneration in enhancing forest cover, offering valuable insights for global forest management and policy-making efforts.

Broadening the focus of forest conservation beyond carbon

Two concurrent trends are contributing towards a much broader view of forest conservation. First, the appreciation of the role of forests as a nature-based climate solution has grown rapidly, particularly among governments and the private sector. Second, the spatiotemporal resolution of forest mapping and the ease of tracking forest changes have dramatically improved. As a result, who does and who pays for forest conservation is changing: sectors and people previously considered separate from forest conservation now play an important role and need to be held accountable and motivated or forced to conserve forests. This change requires, and has stimulated, a broader range of forest conservation solutions. The need to assess the outcomes of conservation interventions has motivated the development and application of sophisticated econometric analyses, enabled by high resolution satellite data. At the same time, the focus on climate, together with the nature of available data and evaluation methods, has worked against a more comprehensive view of forest conservation. Instead, it has encouraged a focus on trees as carbon stores, often leaving out other important goals of forest conservation, such as biodiversity and human wellbeing. Even though both are intrinsically connected to climate outcomes, these areas have not kept pace with the scale and diversification of forest conservation. Finding synergies between these 'co-benefits', which play out on a local scale, with the carbon objective, related to the global amount of forests, is a major challenge and area for future advances in forest conservation.

Catalyzing success in community-based conservation

Efforts to devolve rights and engage Indigenous Peoples and local communities in conservation have increased the demand for evidence of the efficacy of community-based conservation (CBC) and insights into what enables its success. We examined the human well-being and environmental outcomes of a diverse set of 128 CBC projects. Over 80% of CBC projects had some positive human well-being or environmental outcomes, although just 32% achieved positive outcomes for both (i.e., combined success). We coded 57 total national-, community-, and project-level variables and controls from this set, performed random forest classification to identify the variables most important to combined success, and calculated accumulated local effects to describe their individual influence on the probability of achieving it. The best predictors of combined success were 17 variables suggestive of various recommendations and opportunities for conservation practitioners related to national contexts, community characteristics, and the implementation of various strategies and interventions informed by existing CBC frameworks. Specifically, CBC projects had higher probabilities of combined success when they occurred in national contexts supportive of local governance, confronted challenges to collective action, promoted economic diversification, and invested in various capacity-building efforts. Our results provide important insights into how to encourage greater success in CBC.

Un-yielding: Evidence for the agriculture transformation we need

There has been a seismic shift in the center of gravity of scientific writing and thinking about agriculture over the past decades, from a prevailing focus on maximizing yields toward a goal of balancing trade-offs and ensuring the delivery of multiple ecosystem services. Maximizing crop yields often results in a system where most benefits accrue to very few (in the form of profits), alongside irreparable environmental harm to agricultural ecosystems, landscapes, and people. Here, we present evidence that an un-yielding, which we define as de-emphasizing the importance of yields alone, is necessary to achieve the goal of a more Food secure, Agrobiodiverse, Regenerative, Equitable and just (FARE) agriculture. Focusing on yields places the emphasis on one particular outcome of agriculture, which is only an intermediate means to the true endpoint of human well-being. Using yields as a placeholder for this outcome ignores the many other benefits of agriculture that people also care about, like health, livelihoods, and a sense of place. Shifting the emphasis to these multiple benefits rather than merely yields, and to their equitable delivery to all people, we find clear scientific evidence of win-wins for people and nature through four strategies that foster FARE agriculture: reduced disturbance, systems reintegration, diversity, and justice (in the form of securing rights to land and other resources). Through a broad review of the current state of agriculture, desired futures, and the possible pathways to reach them, we argue that while trade-offs between some ecosystem services in agriculture are unavoidable, the same need not be true of the end benefits we desire from them.

Effectiveness and Economic Viability of Forest Certification: A Systematic Review

In the face of accelerating forest degradation and deforestation, forest certification emerged in the early 1990s as a voluntary and market-based mechanism to promote environmentally appropriate, socially beneficial, and economically viable management of the world’s forests. A key goal of forest certification is to reduce forest degradation and deforestation while enhancing forest enterprises’ economic viability. However, whether forest certification contributes to meeting such goals is unclear. We conducted a systematic literature review on such impacts, reviewing empirical studies published between 1993 and 2021 regarding the impact of forest certification on forest degradation, deforestation, and economic viability. Drawing on 98 empirical studies, we analyzed these impacts and provide an overview of the studies’ findings in terms of geographical distribution, indicators considered, and the certification schemes assessed. We found that the impact of forest certification on deforestation has been specifically understudied (n = 11) compared to forest degradation (n = 42) and economic viability (n = 45). On deforestation, studies have focused on Africa (45%) and South America (36%); on forest degradation, studies have focused on Europe (40%) and Asia (20%); on economic viability, studies have focused on Asia (33%), Europe (33%) and South America (20%). We found positive-neutral (54%; 46%) impacts on deforestation, positive-neutral-mixed (70%; 21%; 9%) impacts on forest degradation and positive-negative-mixed (50%; 33%; 17%) impacts on economic viability. We did not find clear evidence that impact is linked to a specific region or certification scheme. However, scarce evidence on the impacts of the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC), the application of various methods, and site-specific indicators in the individual studies challenge such comparison and hamper the generalization of findings. This systematic review provides an overview of the state-of-the-art research on the effectiveness and economic viability of forest certification, evaluates and discusses the current evidence base, and concludes with future research lines.

An Outcome-Oriented, Social–Ecological Framework for Assessing Protected Area Effectiveness

Both the number and the extent of protected areas have grown considerably in recent years, but evaluations of their effectiveness remain partial and are hard to compare across cases. To overcome this situation, first, we suggest reserving the term effectiveness solely for assessing protected area outcomes, to clearly distinguish this from management assessments (e.g., sound planning). Second, we propose a multidimensional conceptual framework, rooted in social–ecological theory, to assess effectiveness along three complementary dimensions: ecological outcomes (e.g., biodiversity), social outcomes (e.g., well-being), and social–ecological interactions (e.g., reduced human pressures). Effectiveness indicators can subsequently be evaluated against contextual and management elements (e.g., design and planning) to shed light on management performance (e.g., cost-effectiveness). We summarize steps to operationalize our framework to foster more holistic effectiveness assessments while improving comparability across protected areas. All of this can ensure that protected areas make real contributions toward conservation and sustainability goals.

Early warning sign of forest loss in protected areas

As humanity is facing the double challenge of species extinctions and climate change, designating parts of forests as protected areas is a key conservation strategy.^1-4 Protected areas, encompassing 14.9% of the Earth's land surface and 19% of global forests, can prevent forest loss but do not do so perfectly everywhere.^5-12 The reasons why protection only works in some areas are difficult to generalize: older and newer parks, protected areas with higher and lower suitability for agriculture, and more and less strict protection can be more effective at preventing forest loss than their counterparts.^6,8,9,12-16 Yet predicting future forest loss within protected areas is crucial to proactive conservation. Here, we identify an early warning sign of subsequent forest loss, based on forest loss patterns in strict protected areas and their surrounding landscape worldwide, from 2000 to 2018.^17,18 We found that a low level in the absolute forest cover immediately outside of a protected area signals a high risk of future forest loss inside the protected area itself. When the amount of forest left outside drops to <20%, the protected area is likely to experience rates of forest loss matching those in the wider landscape, regardless of its protection status (e.g., 5% loss outside will be matched by 5% loss inside). This knowledge could be used to direct funding to protected areas threatened by imminent forest loss, helping to proactively bolster protection to prevent forest loss, especially in countries where detailed information is lacking.

What is Threatening Forests in Protected Areas? A Global Assessment of Deforestation in Protected Areas, 2001-2018

The protection of forests is crucial to providing important ecosystem services, such as supplying clean air and water, safeguarding critical habitats for biodiversity, and reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite this importance, global forest loss has steadily increased in recent decades. Protected Areas (PAs) currently account for almost 15% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and protect 5% of global tree cover and were developed as a principal approach to limit the impact of anthropogenic activities on natural, intact ecosystems and habitats. We assess global trends in forest loss inside and outside of PAs, and land cover following this forest loss, using a global map of tree cover loss and global maps of land cover. While forests in PAs experience loss at lower rates than non-protected forests, we find that the temporal trend of forest loss in PAs is markedly similar to that of all forest loss globally. We find that forest loss in PAs is most commonly—and increasingly—followed by shrubland, a broad category that could represent re-growing forest, agricultural fallows, or pasture lands in some regional contexts. Anthropogenic forest loss for agriculture is common in some regions, particularly in the global tropics, while wildfires, pests, and storm blowdown are a significant and consistent cause of forest loss in more northern latitudes, such as the United States, Canada, and Russia. Our study describes a process for screening tree cover loss and agriculture expansion taking place within PAs, and identification of priority targets for further site-specific assessments of threats to PAs. We illustrate an approach for more detailed assessment of forest loss in four case study PAs in Brazil, Indonesia, Democratic Republic of Congo, and the United States.

Diversity of Tree Species in Gap Regeneration under Tropical Moist Semi-Deciduous Forest: An Example from Bia Tano Forest Reserve

In a quest to improve the diversity and conservation of native tree species in tropical African forests, gap regeneration remains all-important nature-promoting silviculture practice and ecosystem-based strategy for attaining these ecological goals. Nine gaps of varying sizes (286–2005 m2) were randomly selected: three each from undisturbed, slightly disturbed and disturbed areas within Bia Tano Forest Reserve of Ghana. Within individual gaps, four transects (North–South–East–West directions) followed by 10 subsampling regions of 1 m2 at 2 m apart were established along each transect. Data showed 63 tree species from 21 families in the study. Although, all estimated diversity indices showed significant biodiversity improvements in all gaps at p < 0.05 level. Yet, there were no significant variations amongst gaps. Additionally, tree species differed between gaps at the undisturbed and the two disturbance-graded areas while no differences were presented between disturbance-graded areas. Balanced conservation between Green Star and Reddish Star species and imbalanced conservation between Least Concern, Near Threatened and Vulnerable species in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List were found, showing the reserve’s long-term prospects for economic and ecological benefits of forest management. Thus, there is a need for higher priority for intensive management to regulate various anthropogenic disturbances so as to protect the biological legacies of the reserve.

Resilience building of rural livelihoods in PES programmes: A case study in China's Loess Hills

In spite of positive expectations for environmental protection, payments for ecosystem services (PES) can bring about unintended disturbances to rural livelihoods. Based on resilience thinking, this article investigates livelihood resilience building at farm level through the interaction between farm adaptation and disturbances induced by China's Grain for Green project (GGP). Cluster analysis was conducted to investigate the complexity and diversity of farm adaptation; the crafting of composite indexes was designed to value resilience through disturbance, sensitivity, and adaptability; regression analyses linked the resilience indexes and farm adaptation with access to resources. The results show three adaptation typologies (i.e. reclamation of retired lands, contractive farming, and expansive farming) with distinct land use structures and resilience scores, and highlight the need to improving farmers' access and endowment of tangible (e.g. farming facilities) and intangible resources (e.g. skill training) for resilience-building practices in light of the GGP. The findings imply that policy interventions combining environmental restrictions with widening resource access to support alternative livelihoods can offset the unintended effects and amplify the success of PES programmes.